Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Posted: 24 Feb 2022 20:19
Pols are never happy. They have big chip on shoulder. They are fighting with EU, Russia and rest of the world. Russia just ignores them . They are not in the game.
Consortium of Indian Defence Websites
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US Raises Alarm As Russia Moves Heavy Artillery, Tanks Towards Ukraine Border
By
Younis Dar
April 2, 2021
Russia is reportedly moving tanks, artillery, and other heavy armored vehicles close to the border with Ukraine, raising fears of an imminent conflict in the region.
The local witnesses reported a strong buildup of the Russian forces, along with their logistics units, which Moscow said was part of a “training exercise”.
However, reports suggest the scale of the military movement is such that it has “disrupted shipments of tractors and other agricultural equipment ahead of the spring harvest season of the farmers”, The Drive reported. The development has left even the US worried that Ukraine and Russia may be headed for a new conflict.
Крым, 30 марта pic.twitter.com/yaMoN7leio
— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) March 30, 2021
The reports of heavy military equipment being moved to the border on trains and through roads were being reported since March 27 by the locals through video footage and images. According to the military intelligence reports put together by the Pentagon, “some 4,000 heavily armed Russian forces had been observed moving in Crimea,” CNN said, quoting a US defense official.
Russian military equipment on the Crimean Bridge. 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers, various trucks, BMP-3 IFVs.
29.03.21 pic.twitter.com/c4W2aNqp5M
— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) March 31, 2021
According to US media reports, top US national security officials were in touch with their Ukrainian counterparts, and the country’s top general called his Ukrainian counterpart on Wednesday amid reports of Russian military buildup near the border with eastern Ukraine. The US had condemned the Russian aggression last week which resulted in the death of four Ukrainian soldiers.
“Russia’s destabilizing actions undermine the de-escalation intentions that had been achieved through [last year’s agreement],” CNN quoted chief Pentagon spokesman John Kirby as saying, on Wednesday. “Additionally, we are aware of Ukrainian military reports concerning Russian troop movements on Ukraine’s borders.”
The US expressed its support to Ukraine amid the threat from Russia, pledging to offer unwavering support to the country’s sovereignty. “Pleased to speak with Dmytro Kuleba today to discuss the United States unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
We continue to support Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbas and Crimea,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a tweet.
Pleased to speak with @DmytroKuleba today to discuss the United States unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. We continue to support Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbas and Crimea.
— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) April 1, 2021
There are also reports of increased Russian aggression on the border with Ukraine with multiple deaths reported last week.
A convoy of the Russian military trucks, Voronezh Oblast, March 31. pic.twitter.com/g93ovAB5HR
— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) March 31, 2021
According to the last reports, the US government said it was trying to figure out with Moscow whether it was renewing its offensive in eastern Ukraine with 4,000 troops on the move or simply exercising. “We’ve reached out to Russia to try to gain a little more clarity on what’s going on,” John Kirby told the US media
Although Russia has increased military activity near the Ukrainian border in the past, the situation today is particularly concerning since the ceasefire is about the expire.
Many of them emigrated to the West and became part of the political establishment there. Case in point being Chrystia Freeland, the deputy PM of Canada whose grandfather collaborated with the Nazis during WW2. She is currently banned from entering Russia. Some of these people today in positions of authority are driving the Western response to Russia and using Ukraine as a catspaw.rsingh wrote:Strange , I met my future wife at an Sanatorium near Kharkov. That peaceful serenity in -30°. Feel bad. But one has to know that western Ukrainian were always against Russia and they were willful collaborators of Nazis. Atrocities they comitted on fellow Ukrainians most grusome during WW2.
@DesiEscobar07
Putin and Modi to have a phone conversation today on the request by russian side.
Adding to this:GShankar wrote:A perspective on what is going on
I think pretty much primary mission achieved. The powers that be don't care about 2 new countries being formed. And roos manages to achieve some sort of buffer (territory expansion?). Interesting that "this" buffer is valued more (at this moment) than nordstream 2. Not sure why? This "buffer creation" could have happened after nordstream 2 started flowing
- Nordstream 2 would help russia economically
1.1 China does not want that
1.2 US does not want that
1.3 Ukraine does not want that
1.4 Sanction/Ban the company building the pipeline- Start some NATO BS with Ukraine
- Cut alternate deals with Germany
- Provoke Russia
4.1 Putin gives speech. But why? There seems to be a need to address the internal audience.- Russia Engages
5.1 US Condemns
5.2 China Condems
5.3 Germany Stutters- Nordstream 2 suspended
Negotiate price down further bring nordstream 2 back on track?
I think G2 is alive and well.
US reportedly shared Intel with China on Russian invasion pre Feb 20, this angered the Chinese and Xi reportedly discussed with Putin and he agreed to put off any invasion till post Olympics. It’s no coincidence Putin video of declaration of war was shot on Feb 21st. But released only on 24th.
This move by Russia seems like a move they did "without chinese blessing". Not 100% sure about this but looking for more details.
I think this is overly pessimistic. Russia may soon be a pariah state for the west, somewhere between China and NoKo; but there will be no UN sanctions because of Russia's veto. We will continue to trade with them with Rupee-Ruble arrangement to circumvent SWIFT, and continue to procure some level of arms from them. It may be easy now to cancel the Kamov deal and any others we don't like.AkshaySG wrote:Its gonna take a lot of very very smart geopolitical maneuvering to take us out of this situation in a better place. Let's hope the PM, and EAM and everyone else involved is up to the task
The rush to push Ukraine into NATO and cause this conflict seems to be to stop NS2.GShankar: Not sure why? This "buffer creation" could have happened after nordstream 2 started flowing
This is utter horsedung. If you are not going to post links to the claims you are making, please stop. You are deliberately muddying the waters here with your disinformation.John: US reportedly shared Intel with China on Russian invasion pre Feb 20, this angered the Chinese and Xi reportedly discussed with Putin and he agreed to put off any invasion till post Olympics. It’s no coincidence Putin video of declaration of war was shot on Feb 21st. But released only on 24th.
Russian athletes and diplomats were there too. So, not sure if this is due to chinese "influence" alone.John wrote:US reportedly shared Intel with China on Russian invasion pre Feb 20, this angered the Chinese and Xi reportedly discussed with Putin and he agreed to put off any invasion till post Olympics.
This move by Russia seems like a move they did "without chinese blessing". Not 100% sure about this but looking for more details.
India is too big/too strong to be needlessly worried about what is going on in Ukraine. We have many options.AkshaySG wrote:Its gonna take a lot of very very smart geopolitical maneuvering to take us out of this situation in a better place. Let's hope the PM, and EAM and everyone else involved is up to the task
Here is an interesting development. Since the invention of nuclear weapons, no nuclear-armed countries have fought direct, hot war with each other with the exception of the Kargil War where ABV showed exceptional restraint by not crossing the LoC at any point."Now a few important, very important words for those who may be tempted to intervene in the ongoing events. Whoever tries to hinder us, or threaten our country or our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to consequences that you have never faced in your history. We are ready for any turn of events. All necessary decisions in this regard have been made. I hope that I will be heard.”
What is interesting is the speed of this advance. Why dont we see regular Ukranian army units putting up a fight? How do they lose an airport so quickly?shaun wrote:Latest update , Ruski paratroopers taken control of a major logistic airport near keiv , I guess there is plan to bring in their air brigade . Control of keiv will disarray the whole security appratus of Ukraine .
If unkil can't call Fat boy's bluff, why will they dare come near the bear?Shaktimaan wrote:
So my question to the mighty Rakshaks here : Will the US call Putin's nuclear bluff?
Very good points. This isn't good for the Russians. This isn't good for the German mindset which thought they could continue to do business with Russia and get away with lip service to NATO. Hopefully Unkil will make sure the Germans pay for European defence and cut business ties with & dependence on the Russians. The invasion make the German admiral's comments at IDSA look like an ill informed joke.achy wrote:It does seem Putin has mis-calculated. Yes, west has no appetite to fight war on behalf of ukraine but west will certainly fight for itself. This will bring russians at their door and they can not let it go anymore. We do have to remember that West is weaker, but even a weaker west is many times stronger then anyone else...
China does gain far more in all this melee. As it will force Russia into their lap and focus of west will shift to containment of Russia rather then containing China. India will be in a piquant situation as it can not be business as usual with Russians anymore. We will have to choose between Russia and West much to our dismay. We would have liked both on our side for at least a decade more. India's defense modernization as well as current preparedness will take a hit as we all know the state of our armament.
One thing we can do at this point is to renounce our NFU. I think we can get away with this change right now and it will also send powerful signals to our adversary for any miscalculation.
US Social media headlines/hottags today: "No Nukes used in Ukraine", suggesting no stomach in the USA to call this bluff. No reason for the USA to start doing this unless they want to make it explicitly clear that they do not expect crossing a nuclear redline. I mean, they don't want to put boots on the ground in Ukraine, so seems like a stretch for them to make an even more strategically costly move.Shaktimaan: Will the US call Putin's nuclear bluff?
true... and urban warfare will mean more body bags for Russia. But from here Putin needs an absolute victory... otherwise he will look like a fool, if he isnt looking like one already. So, I foresee tough times.SwamyG wrote:Russia will be happy attacking the military positions and not indulge in urban warfare.vijaykarthik wrote:On a side note, best defence option for Ukraine will be to have force conc in Kyiv and make it urban warfare. Im reasonably certain US / NATO will have given them some war plans for max impact.
It was just discussed in NPR however neither US nor China would acknowledge or deny. We will find out when someone writes a book on it years down the road. But if you look at the dates and timing it lines up perfectly.srikandan wrote:This is utter horsedung. If you are not going to post links to the claims you are making, please stop. You are deliberately muddying the waters here with your disinformation.John: US reportedly shared Intel with China on Russian invasion pre Feb 20, this angered the Chinese and Xi reportedly discussed with Putin and he agreed to put off any invasion till post Olympics. It’s no coincidence Putin video of declaration of war was shot on Feb 21st. But released only on 24th.
Take India?RajaRudra wrote:From the Chinese view, will this be a good time to take on either Taiwan or India ?
Ah yes, NPR, America's answer to Pravda. splendid.John: It was just discussed in NPR however neither US nor China would acknowledge or deny. We will find out when someone writes a book on it years down the road. But if you look at the dates and timing it lines up perfectly.
I beg to differ in this. The time Russia took Crimea, and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, they ensured Ukraine cant join NATO. It doesn't need a new invasion.Yagnasri wrote:Monroe Doctrine.
They want to keep the Russians bottled in their own borders. Just like they created Pakis for containing us.
Why will he look like a fool? He's given a middle finger to the west, bombed the shit out of Ukrainian military positions across the entire country, moved in and out as he pleases. So far the only ones looking impotent are ukr army and resistance and western allies who still don't have a coherent response other than usual threats of "severe sanctions"vijaykarthik wrote:true... and urban warfare will mean more body bags for Russia. But from here Putin needs an absolute victory... otherwise he will look like a fool, if he isnt looking like one already. So, I foresee tough times.SwamyG wrote: Russia will be happy attacking the military positions and not indulge in urban warfare.
Part -3:GShankar wrote:Part -2:GShankar wrote:A perspective on what is going on
Part -1:
I think pretty much primary mission achieved. The powers that be don't care about 2 new countries being formed. And roos manages to achieve some sort of buffer (territory expansion?). Interesting that "this" buffer is valued more (at this moment) than nordstream 2. Not sure why? This "buffer creation" could have happened after nordstream 2 started flowing
- Nordstream 2 would help russia economically
1.1 China does not want that
1.2 US does not want that
1.3 Ukraine does not want that
1.4 Sanction/Ban the company building the pipeline- Start some NATO BS with Ukraine
- Cut alternate deals with Germany
- Provoke Russia
4.1 Putin gives speech. But why? There seems to be a need to address the internal audience.- Russia Engages
5.1 US Condemns
5.2 China Condems
5.3 Germany Stutters- Nordstream 2 suspended
Negotiate price down further bring nordstream 2 back on track?
I think G2 is alive and well.
Russia can hold some "additional" territory to negotiate a deal.
Now what are the territories they might be interested in?
Securing pipeline route(s) all across ukraine - more difficult- Any so called commercial hubs or ports to choke trade (worst case probably everything "this" side of Dnieper is game)
Now what could be the terms that they are looking for? These are the obvious ones for one looking from the outside in
- No Nato membership for ukraine
- Another long term transit fee deal
- Recognition of new countries to release the "additional" territories
I don't see any moves for India at the moment other than watch the unfolding scenario and being "part" of various discussions. Also need to see what moves / proposals china is making and what we can we could counter.
This move by Russia seems like a move they did "without chinese blessing". Not 100% sure about this but looking for more details.
Because perhaps the BIF propaganda of Ukrainians and Russians being "bitter enemies" may not be true on the ground?Tanaji wrote:What is interesting is the speed of this advance. Why dont we see regular Ukranian army units putting up a fight? How do they lose an airport so quickly?shaun wrote:Latest update , Ruski paratroopers taken control of a major logistic airport near keiv , I guess there is plan to bring in their air brigade . Control of keiv will disarray the whole security appratus of Ukraine .