Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Posted: 13 Mar 2020 08:21
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Unless drastic actions are taken without delay (to limit social contact) we may reach those numbers and *more* - Those number, ought to be taken seriously. Ohio is doing it but it should be on national level.... the numbers Amber G. posted can be an overestimate (or so I hope).
Hollywood Star Tom Hanks and his wife were infected too! On a movie set in Australia, I believe.SandeepA wrote:Canadian PM'Trudeau's wife is infected
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid1 ... -1.5495001
Thanks for posting, Amber. I get more info and piece of mind from BR than any of the so-called professional media.Amber G. wrote:Unless drastic actions are taken without delay (to limit social contact) we may reach those numbers and *more* - Those number, ought to be taken seriously. Ohio is doing it but it should be on national level.... the numbers Amber G. posted can be an overestimate (or so I hope).
Below is a chart from a slide from a Webminar of the American Hospital Association - communicating the "best guess" impact - What US should be ready for. The numbers are scary but not unrealistic.
They are asking for 10X the worse Flu epidemic type preparation!
(Very interesting that many official numbers now being shared at high-level in US are kind of number(s) I have posted in BRF -- The numbers based on data and solid math.
For those who dismiss, and say this can't be true .. I remember 1969 and 2009 .. both had similar numbers, only part was CFR was much lower. (1969 was not fun at all - Away from home and quite new in US).Amber G. wrote: . The numbers are scary but not unrealistic.
<see post above about numbers
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Couple of things about the AHA slide:Amber G. wrote:Unless drastic actions are taken without delay (to limit social contact) we may reach those numbers and *more* - Those number, ought to be taken seriously. Ohio is doing it but it should be on national level.... the numbers Amber G. posted can be an overestimate (or so I hope).
Below is a chart from a slide from a Webminar of the American Hospital Association - communicating the "best guess" impact - What US should be ready for. The numbers are scary but not unrealistic.
They are asking for 10X the worse Flu epidemic type preparation!
(Very interesting that many official numbers now being shared at high-level in US are kind of number(s) I have posted in BRF -- The numbers based on data and solid math.
The video interview with Vice President Pence in that CNN link is unbelievable. It's crazy that he was not able or willing to give a straightforward answer regarding how many tests have been conducted in the U.S. Here's the link on YouTube. Watch from 7:00-10:20. The journalist, Allison Camerota, was understandably frustrated by VP Pence's non-answers.Republican and Democratic senators left their closed briefing furious over the US failure to ensure there is widespread testing -- and contradicted President Donald Trump's claims that anyone can get tested when they want to get tested.
"Our system has just not been up to snuff and I think a lot of people are frustrated by it," said Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah. "I'm one of them."
GOP Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma, an ally of Trump, told CNN that the President "should stop saying" that anyone can get a COVID-19 test if they want one.
"It's not consistent right now" with what representatives of federal agencies told senators, Lankford said. "That is not accurate right now. People should stop saying if you want a test, you should get a test right now. That's not here at this point."
"I don't know that anyone is satisfied with where we are right now," Lankford said.
Democrats called out the Trump administration for not having widespread testing available.
"I am very angry and frustrated about how we got to where we are now," said Washington Sen. Patty Murray, ranking Democrat on the Senate HELP Committee. "We are going to continue to push this administration to ramp up the tests but the reality is, and we were just told this by the experts, that they don't have the tests available and can't give us a date they will be."
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat from Connecticut, described his feelings as "absolutely appalled."
"I am appalled and astonished that we have lost a critical two months there's still no plan, no strategy, for testing for ventilators, for the basics that are required for people to survive," Blumenthal said. "We're talking about life and death and there's still no plan." ....
At least one lawmaker has become a symbol himself for availability of coronavirus testing. A spokesperson tweeted Thursday morning that Democratic Rep. Don Beyer of Virginia has not been given the test after having a meal with a person who tested positive for the disease.
"We tried to get a test for him, not bc he is special, but bc of who he interacts with," tweeted Beyer's spokesperson Aaron Fritschner. "Thought it important to know ASAP. But there aren't enough tests, he didn't meet the risk threshold. Member of Congress." Beyer is one several lawmakers who is self quarantining.
https://twitter.com/danielsgoldman/stat ... 9358571520Key: [U.S. Congressional] members were floored as they learned that roughly just 11,000 Coronavirus tests TOTAL have been conducted compared to the fact that in South Korea, 10,000 tests are conducted A DAY.
Let’s be very clear: unless you have pneumonia and traveled to one of 5 high-risk countries recently, you can NOT get a #COVID19 test in New York City. If you, like me, have a fever and a headache (but tested negative for the flu), you are unable to rule out #COVID19. Shameful.
Drugs are one thing India should have insisted be made in India by the pharmaceutical companies. This is a chance to bring a lot of things home without the companies crying hoarse about it.Coronavirus: China stalls supplies, India faces anti-retroviral shortage
one patient is an outlier.
Vayutuvan wrote:one patient is an outlier.
Yes I read that too. I would think they contracted it in the many flights they may have taken, transit, and people they met etc. But is that explanation satisfying? I mean, both Canadian PM's wife and Hollywood actors are I am sure pretty well off. They would have been in clean environments. They wouldn't have come in contact with aam junta, may be Trudeau's wife would have; but all this still doesn't explain anything with a fair degree of certitude.chola wrote:Hollywood Star Tom Hanks and his wife were infected too! On a movie set in Australia, I believe.SandeepA wrote:Canadian PM'Trudeau's wife is infected
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid1 ... -1.5495001
Read the bit about this treatment being a ICMR protocol. I have confirmation from another source that this is what they are using as a standard treatment for the disease in India.sanjaykumar wrote:One patient means nothing. Who writes these stories? Or is it self-promotion by these physicians?
Similar attempts have been made in other countries as well.sanjaykumar wrote:Apparently India leaves lower end pharmaceuticals to China. They do a bit higher end work.
Vayutuvan wrote: one patient is an outlier.
One patient means nothing. Who writes these stories? Or is it self-promotion by these physicians?
How are things in desh?hanumadu wrote:Singapore and HK are only supporting evidence. But India is the main reason to have hopes in this theory. Vietnam and Phlippines seems to be largely unaffected too, both having nice warm temperatures right now.agupta wrote:
Wishful thinking. There is no scientific evidence or reasoning for this (yet). I hope fervently its true, but hope is not reason for credence right ?
SGP and HK had, and executed very well, on pandemic handling protocols. It's as simple as that. Easier of course for them than for a large country... but it takes will, skill and resources and they had/used all of it. Ditto for SK.
Yea, right now its only a theory but hopefully one that turns out to be true.
Maybe 'coz I don't drinkVayutuvan wrote:sudarshan ji, you forgot the most important thang - bee. "where is the beer?"
With all due respect, I thought both the interviewer and Pence were quite dignified and Pence answered everything to the best of his ability. Like for example, that part about testing to know where the clusters are.Avarachan wrote:https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/politics ... index.html
The video interview with Vice President Pence in that CNN link is unbelievable. It's crazy that he was not able or willing to give a straightforward answer regarding how many tests have been conducted in the U.S. Here's the link on YouTube. Watch from 7:00-10:20. The journalist, Allison Camerota, was understandably frustrated by VP Pence's non-answers.
Viruses dont spread in monsoon, mostly bacteria, rain washes them away from the Air. The real test will come next winter, cold dry weather is the best case for such viruses to spread.tandav wrote:So far India's response to the Wuhan Virus seems to be well calibrated... the real test will occur around monsoons July onwards. We have some amount of time to prepare.
The big advantage I feel is that this epidemic gives a massive fillip to home businesses... it is an opportunity that should allow us to leap frog a new paradigm of businesses running out of homes rather that having to commute to work.
Govt should move most services online...
Thankfully some decisions we took in 2010 on creating an online system of working are paying off now
I just started my dose as well CRSji. I was told to take it on an empty stomach. If you absolutely can't find a mask, I was informed by a Vaidyaji to coat nasal membranes with coconut oil or ghee.CRamS wrote:Yes I read that too. I would think they contracted it in the many flights they may have taken, transit, and people they met etc. But is that explanation satisfying? I mean, both Canadian PM's wife and Hollywood actors are I am sure pretty well off. They would have been in clean environments. They wouldn't have come in contact with aam junta, may be Trudeau's wife would have; but all this still doesn't explain anything with a fair degree of certitude.chola wrote:
Hollywood Star Tom Hanks and his wife were infected too! On a movie set in Australia, I believe.
I managed to pre-pone my trip back to Dallas from Bengaluru by 1 day. Now I am running helter skelter to find a mask. Cain, I took that preventive Homeopathic remedy you posted. The doc at the store told me 5 pills for 3 days and repeat the course again after 2 weeks. Hope it helps. Took 2 doses already, yesterday and today.
Now I am running helter skelter to find a good mask. Not available anywhere. My only option is to get it from one of the 24-hour emergency clinics in my neighborhood. I am kissing the resident doctor and owner's ass and begging him to sell me a few. Waiting for his phone call.
Wuhan Coronavirus will probably track Influenza which is also a coronavirus. Influenza shows different seasonal peaks between Srinagar (peaks in Dec-Mar: Winter) and Delhi (Peaks in July-Sep: monsoon)hanumadu wrote:nvishal wrote:Hanumadu,
Flu is most prevalent in India during the cold season.
In monsoon, mosquito breeds better and hence diseases like dengue, malaria, chikungunya are common.
Rain water is responsible for washing away dirt and organic matter to the sewers. Covid19 is not transmitted by mosquitos.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4193176/Weekly trends and proportion of annual numbers of positive influenza cases, by epidemiologic week and influenza type, Srinagar (A) and New Delhi (B), India, 2011–2012. Clear seasonal peaks are seen in January–March (weeks 1–16) for Srinagar and in July and September (weeks 28–40) for New Delhi.We identified discrete patterns of influenza circulation in India. In Srinagar, a city in the northernmost region of India, influenza positivity rates peaked in winter (December–March), whereas in New Delhi, a city just ≈500 km south of Srinagar, influenza peaked during the monsoon season (July–September). The winter peak in Srinagar is similar to the timing of influenza circulation observed for most countries in Europe and United States in the Northern Hemisphere (4,5). By contrast, the data on influenza seasonality in New Delhi corroborate findings which showed that many countries in tropical regions (e.g., Brazil, India, Vietnam) experience high influenza transmission rates during the rainy season (6,11–13). Overall, influenza A and B viruses co-circulated throughout the surveillance period in Srinagar and New Delhi; however, the types and subtypes varied.
I am not in India, so can't say. Sorry.SwamyG wrote:How are things in desh?hanumadu wrote:
Singapore and HK are only supporting evidence. But India is the main reason to have hopes in this theory. Vietnam and Phlippines seems to be largely unaffected too, both having nice warm temperatures right now.
Yea, right now its only a theory but hopefully one that turns out to be true.
Use the Korean numbers. The Italian ones will scare people sh1tless. But I think they are the outliers.sanjaykumar wrote:I am waiting for Italian data. Don’t trust the Chinese. However given the fatality rate, it is reasonable inference the cocktail is not useful.
Italy beacause they have the number of cases and a decent health system with ( somewhat) accountable governance.
Question is why? Are there any demographic/cultural factors that match between Korea, Ger, Spain, and France vs Italy? Where does the US fit in? Korean seem too low based on variables discussed earlier. Perhaps somewhere in the middle..chola wrote:Use the Korean numbers. The Italian ones will scare people sh1tless. But I think they are the outliers.sanjaykumar wrote:I am waiting for Italian data. Don’t trust the Chinese. However given the fatality rate, it is reasonable inference the cocktail is not useful.
Italy beacause they have the number of cases and a decent health system with ( somewhat) accountable governance.
Korean (who had a similar amount of infected) has a much lower death. So do Germany, Spain, France and the US. Italy and Iran are the only ones with such high death rates.
Yes. It is fairly well known among experts - For example there is a pretty well circulated discussion about a paper written - about these type of ( About 3 or 4 ) drugs - and their effects in China and Korea cases.Aarvee wrote:
Similar attempts have been made in other countries as well.
Firstly, welcome back - needs some big event for veterans to report back to baseSwamyG wrote:How are things in desh?hanumadu wrote:
Singapore and HK are only supporting evidence. But India is the main reason to have hopes in this theory. Vietnam and Phlippines seems to be largely unaffected too, both having nice warm temperatures right now.
Yea, right now its only a theory but hopefully one that turns out to be true.
David Vance @DVATW · 18h
Many Italians in Northern Italy sold their leather goods and textiles companies to China. Italy then allowed 100,000 Chinese from Wuhan/Wenzhou to move to Italy to work in these factories, with direct Wuhan flights. Result: Northern Italy is Europe’s hotspot for Wuhan Coronavirus
After police and Army explained that this is not a ‘luxury resort’, the group of 83 individuals, comprising Indians and foreigners of Indian-origin, relented.
New Delhi: A group of 83 individuals, who had returned from coronavirus-hit Italy and were taken to the Manesar quarantine facility run by the Indian Army Wednesday, created ruckus demanding better facilities, forcing the police to be called in.
After the police and the Army personnel explained that this is not a “luxury resort”, the group, comprising Indians and foreigners of Indian-origin, relented.
A source said the group had arrived from Italy on an Air India flight (AI138) on 11 March. They were immediately quarantined at the Army facility.
While 74 individuals in the group are Indians, the remaining nine are foreigners of Indian-origin — six Italians and three US nationals.
The actions of the relatives and it's repeat accross the country are most scary as this is the most effective way of breaking quarantine.sooraj wrote:
could try to get and send you some books if you wantLisa wrote:Does anyone have information on vaccines, design, manufacture, time to market etc or for that matter reliable and easy to understand links?
Please. Thank you.