Geopolitical thread

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svinayak
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by svinayak »

prad wrote:

Tibet is different. it is a rugged wasteland (literally, no room for any agricultural activities) which can't sustain a growing population and prosper without support from central-eastern china. any country with geography of Tibet needs other things if it wants to maintain individualism: either geographic isolation like Japan, or a strong Jihadi/War-like culture like the tribal areas in Chechenya.

Tibet lacks both. it isn't an island. and it is a peaceful culture. it doesn't even have the fierce ruthlessness that Native Americans had. ultimately, let's not forget that the Native Americans were wiped out b/c of their demographic disadvantage. not for the lack of war-like spirit. the Europeans just outnumbered them.
Tibet was colonized in the modern era of the 20th century. Modern media and communications can be used to change the perception of people inside Tibet, inside China and the rest of the world. Control of the media and communications and text books are the key to controlling a civilization and population. Support to Tibet people will come when there is free media on the region and about their life.

Even the western media had controlled the amount of information on Tibet spread to the rest of the world. There is an understanding about this with PRC. That is the control they have on the freedom movement of Tibet.
ramana
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by ramana »

This peaceful image of Tibet and the idea of ti being a Shangri-la are modern constructs. From around 700AD to 1100 AD, Tibet consolidated Central Asia under their rulers. There is a theory that its this consolidation and decline that paved the way for later Mongol Conquests.

Google Books:

Tibetian Empire of Central Asia by Christopher Beckwith
ramana
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by ramana »

There is a Telugu saying, "Koralu peekuthe, puli pilliae!"

Wehn the claws are taken away a tiger becomes a cat!
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by DavidD »

RamaY wrote:SwamyG garu,

Many empires thought so and we know what happened to such dreams!
Americans certainly thought so when it expanded into Native American territories. I don't see the Natives taking back the Americas. Ever.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by darshhan »

dingyibvs wrote:
RamaY wrote:SwamyG garu,

Many empires thought so and we know what happened to such dreams!
Americans certainly thought so when it expanded into Native American territories. I don't see the Natives taking back the Americas. Ever.
But America is a democracy.It is not an empire.Anyone in America can aspire to become what he or she wants to become.They can also achieve their aspirations.America is capable of accomodating the ethnicities it hosts.Hell recently an African american man became the president.The secretary of energy Steven Chu is of chinese origin.Lousiana governor Bobby Jindal is of Indian origin.

This is not possible in the case of empires or authoritarian states.That is why unrepresented people in totalitarian societies start becoming discontented and one day their discontent brings down the complete empire.For eg see the dissolution of Soviet Union.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Carl_T »

darshhan wrote:
This is not possible in the case of empires or authoritarian states.That is why unrepresented people in totalitarian societies start becoming discontented and one day their discontent brings down the complete empire.For eg see the dissolution of Soviet Union.
If the Tibetans have discontent the Chinese are more than capable of putting down that discontent. In future generations I think Tibetans will probably stop thinking of themselves as separate nation, probably lose a lot of national identity as their older leaders die out and Tibet will continue to be a part of China. Since the region is so sparsely populated, there is a lot of lebensraum for the Han population to expand to. Turkistan is probably a better candidate for independence as long as Turkics maintain cultural links with them. But even that too appears to be receding.

In order to deal with China, we should be cultivating Japan instead of thinking about Tibet.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

Japan doesn't seem to want to be cultivated. They mainly seem to be happily inward-looking, and won't really wake up until the Chinese arrive on their shores. Japan needs a more rightist party to come to power.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by SwamyG »

Tibet lacks both. it isn't an island. and it is a peaceful culture. it doesn't even have the fierce ruthlessness that Native Americans had. ultimately, let's not forget that the Native Americans were wiped out b/c of their demographic disadvantage. not for the lack of war-like spirit. the Europeans just outnumbered them.
Presently, the peacefulness has been enhanced by the celebrity called Dalai Lama.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by SwamyG »

prad wrote:if there is a depression in China and the country reverts to isolationism, it is possible that it might retreat from Tibet. it's actually not that hard to imagine. even so, PRC has populated Tibet with a large number of Hans. i'm not really sure that Tibet would belong to the genuine Tibetans even if China retreats.
On what basis do you say they will retreat from Tibet? China considers it part of their nation now. Period. Your line of thought could hold good for the European Colonialists, who conquered lands far far way from their homeland. British could withdrew from its former colonies. But China and Tibet's case are different.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by RamaY »

dingyibvs wrote:
RamaY wrote:SwamyG garu,

Many empires thought so and we know what happened to such dreams!
Americans certainly thought so when it expanded into Native American territories. I don't see the Natives taking back the Americas. Ever.
Dingyibvs,

I know it is very difficult for a colonized mind to see the light of Truth. I will give you a nice example. Read the story on "The Near-Extermination of the American Bison". All it took was six male and one female Bison to revive this species.

As a practice exercise, next time you think on any issue, try to think beyond yourself.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by SwamyG »

Tibetean were not a confederation of nomadic tribes. Their kingdom was an ambitious one that had developed an integrated military, an effective administration and a literate culture based on grammar and script derived from Sanskrit. They adopted a distinct for of Buddhism - Vajrayana. They had highly developed metallurgical skills with a mixed economy that included artisans and traders in addition to farmers.

By the 660s, Tibet pushed outwards penetrating into Sichuan and Xinjaing and reclaimed the Tuyuhun lands in Qinghai. They joined forces with the disenchanted Western Turks to sever the Southern Silk route. In 670 they captured Kuqa that virtually eliminated Chinese presence from the western Xinjiang and the Pamirs.
In the 8th century Nanzaho accepted Tibetan suzerainty over Chinese and might have fought with the Tibetans in their sustained offensive against Tang. The Mongols played an important role in enhancing the status of the yellow-hatted Buddhist monks; in 1578 Altan Khan, a mongol, first acknowledged the Dalai Lama. The Mongols were kind of enamored by the Tibetan Buddhist monks.

The Tibetans, in the past, from the Chinese perspective resorted to “banditry” – but what it means is Tibetans have had a rich history of armed resistance, fight – defensive and offensive against the various Chinese kingdoms.
China is a big power and Tibetans, need alliances to fight. And they are not seeing anything substantial. The cheering and smiling Dalai Lama is good for photo-ops and selling books. Tibet was never fully under Chinese sovereignty, now and then it did get under some Chinese Kingdom’s suzerainty.

If one looks at the Chola Empire in Wikipedia, under a king or two parts of current Orissa, W.Bengal are shown under Chola Kingdoms. Did Chola control them? Probably not, the chief and kings from that area would have accepted the Cholas suzerainty and paid taxes and entered in war time alliances. I don’t think people from the deep south migrated in mass and settled in those areas. So would it have been in the past with Tibet and China. But since 1950, the Hans have been moving in….if this continues for few more centuries with all the intermixing of blood it would be tough to get Tibet out of China. On what basis would people fight?
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by SwamyG »

Carl_T wrote:In order to deal with China, we should be cultivating Japan instead of thinking about Tibet.
No harm in thinking of Japan; but they would become of very limited use. Land will always remain important in humans life on this planet, until we colonize Pluto :-)

India needs Tibet. China needs Tibet. Tibeteans need Tibet. One who deserves the most will get it.

For India's sake, hope the Indian leaders have been developing intel and assets in Tibet. Giving some space for the monks to live in India is just a lip service. Not really useful.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by SwamyG »

RamaY wrote:Read the story on "The Near-Extermination of the American Bison". All it took was six male and one female Bison to revive this species.
Somebody was instrumental in reviving them, no?
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by RamaY »

SwamyG wrote:
RamaY wrote:Read the story on "The Near-Extermination of the American Bison". All it took was six male and one female Bison to revive this species.
Somebody was instrumental in reviving them, no?
:mrgreen: Anyone with a right world-view can fill that position.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by SwamyG »

^^^
Nobody is there now, that is my point.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by RamaY »

SwamyG wrote:^^^
Nobody is there now, that is my point.
To save or to be saved?
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by SwamyG »

To save. Best on the current World order where proxy wars are the norm; and only few countries, ahem ahem go for direct wars, who is supporting or will support Tibet militarily? {sucks USA scores a goal against Ghana}
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by DavidD »

darshhan wrote:
But America is a democracy.It is not an empire.Anyone in America can aspire to become what he or she wants to become.They can also achieve their aspirations.America is capable of accomodating the ethnicities it hosts.Hell recently an African american man became the president.The secretary of energy Steven Chu is of chinese origin.Lousiana governor Bobby Jindal is of Indian origin.

This is not possible in the case of empires or authoritarian states.That is why unrepresented people in totalitarian societies start becoming discontented and one day their discontent brings down the complete empire.For eg see the dissolution of Soviet Union.
You should look up early American history, democracy certainly wasn't extended to the Native Americans. Heck, you should read up on modern American history too, because it wasn't until the '60s that democracy and human rights extended fully to all races. Let's also not forget that it was a democratically elected leader(Hitler) who systematically butchered 6 million Jews. What's my point? My point is that democracy certainly does not preclude ethnic cleansing and cultural assimilation.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by brihaspati »

^^^However, democracy does seem to allow dissent and opposition to "earlier" policies much faster than dictatorships. Can you also please quote, who (and when did he start) started agitating for some degree of restraint in the "land alienation" of native Americans? Who moved for the "reserves" bills? Or the fact that some people somewhere started opposing slavery within this "powerless to oppose repression and prejudice" democracy? Or that someone somewhere sent "forces" to ensure that de-segregation in certain states went smoothly?

Problem with one-party dictatorships like that of Communist China or the historical USSR, is that such opposing moves never even is allowed to start to rear its head. America somehow tolerated open bifurcation within the elite over questions of slavery, race etc - cannot even imagine that for USSR or PRC. The communist parties basically followed the Leninist model of "united" front by all members outside the party.

If the communist party is just one of many, that may still work, because contrary opinions will be taken up by other parties in competition. When communist one-party dictatorship comes up - all political opinions have to be thrashed out within the party. This is a contradiction because the Leninist principle precludes the "party" acting as a substitute for regular "parliament" in a democracy, because there can be no minority "opinion" or "position".

Here is the fundamental difference between "democracy" of the "parliamentary" kind followed by USA and communist systems whereby the only political opinion can be aired within party fora (at the best of times - at most times it means self-censorship because of the totalitarian power of the state over the individual) which however can have no reflection or impact outside the party if it goes against the so-called consensus within the party.

This should make it easy to see why, none of the ethnicities within Tsarist Russia obtained self-determination after the Bolsheviks came to power - with the exception of Finland in the very early shaky and idealist days post 1917 - and they had to wait until CPSU disbanded. The same goes for CPC - none of the ethnicities who do not want to be ruled by the mythic Han identity - will have any freedom until CPC disbands.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by ramana »

Does the sun rise because the cock crows?
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Pratyush »

Some rambling thoughts....

Prad,

Having gone through your post I find myself disagreeing with some parts of your post. For social unrest to materialize, leading to a withdrawal to core, the Economy of PRC will have to stagnate for a long period of time. I just am not sure that it will happen in the near future I.e 10 to 15 years. In the Mid to long run, 15 to 200 years perhaps, the economy may stagnate but the weight of ethnic HANs in numbers will still be too heavy for the Tibetans to deal with them effectively.

Moreover, a stagnant economy will not cause the Chines to Pull back from the peripheral regions. My reading is that, they seem to have a huge sense of victim hood WRT the rest of Asia. It is most evident in the irredentist claims being made by the PRC on its neighbors. Which being the case, they may decide to hold the line or even expand out words ( leading to a war ) but not withdraw to the core lands. As is being suggested in your post.

Bhriapati,

I agree with most of what you are saying, but in order for the CCP to be weakened sufficiently for the ethnic minorities to express their right of self determination. PRC will have to undergo a lengthy period of stagnation. Leading to social unrest, which in turn compromises the CCPs ability to rule the population. Which, as I have mentioned earlier in this post is not foreseeable in the short run.

The only way it can happen is, if the vast export based economy of PRC collapses over night. Due to an erosion of the export market. This in turn presupposes that the USA and EU no longer remain as big a market for PRC as they are currently.

They only way I can think of it happening is if India supplants PRC as the manufacturing hub of the world (Possible). Along with the CCP going completely insane. (Wishful thinking)

JMT

PS : Ramana some things happen because they must happen. Not because some one makes it happen. What we must be prepared for, is to be aware of when they are going to take place in order to take advantage of the opportunity as it presents it self.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Carl_T »

prad wrote:
ramana wrote:Does the sun rise because the cock crows?

sorry for the sarcasm, but you must forgive my tiny little mind. was that supposed to mean something?
I think he is saying does China lose territory simply because it looks inward?
Sanjay M
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

Carl_T wrote: I think he is saying does China lose territory simply because it looks inward?
India has certainly lost territory because it looks inward. When China was shifting the border posts incrementally every year, nobody in New Delhi was noticing. They're too busy noticing whether the middle crease in some MP's forehead indicates whether he might defect from their electoral coalition.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by pgbhat »

10 Alleged Russian Spies Arrested in United States
It said the Russian intelligence agency SVR had tasked them with one main mission - to "search and develop ties in policymaking circles" in the United States.
svinayak
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by svinayak »

Image


'Hail to the new world (cup) order' By Gideon Rachman.
Image by Ingram Pinn. http://tinyurl.com/27jnydb
abhishek_sharma
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by abhishek_sharma »

The Rise of Political Islam in the West

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ ... led-truths
Sanjay M
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

abhishek_sharma
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by abhishek_sharma »

abhishek_sharma
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Philip
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Philip »

More on the sensational Russian "spy" scandal that has hit the US with ripples in Britain.The ultra-gamorous redhead,"Anna Chapman",was perviously married to a Brit.Read his story heree about how she suddenly changed character after meeting with influential Russians.

Russian spy suspect suddenly changed, says ex-husband
By Liam Creedon, Press Association
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 16648.html

...and here too.

MI5 investigates KGB father of Russian 'spy’
MI5 is investigating whether a former KGB agent recruited his daughter, Anna Chapman, to work for the country’s secret services while living in London.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... n-spy.html
Mrs Chapman told her British ex-husband that her father, Vasily Kushchenko, was a “high ranking” officer in the Russian security forces, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
Klaus
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Klaus »

^^^ This looks like the female equivalent of D.C Headley, caught before she could do serious damage.

Her pattern of changing shades of character and visiting many places and being outwardly outgoing sounds very familiar. Basically a voluptous fox leading a double (or maybe triple) life!
Sanjay M
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

svinayak
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by svinayak »

Image

'Splintered solidarity has put global governance in a spin'. By Philip Stephens. Image by Ingram Pinn. http://tinyurl.com/39s2knn

Slavery is back!!

this is more like playing a labyrinth game...no one knows how to get out of the problem we face world wide.

Global feudalism worked better the first time anyway.
abhishek_sharma
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Le Scandal

The French soccer team's disaster in South Africa has exposed the superficiality of European racial integration -- and now only Germany can save France from tearing itself apart.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... le_scandal
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by DavidD »

It's unfinished business alright. The Chinese people view Indians and Americans as competitors, which they seek to undermine, but the Japanese are the enemy, which they seek to subjugate/destroy.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by lsunil »

Devesh wrote:It's unfinished business alright. The Chinese people view Indians and Americans as competitors, which they seek to undermine, but the Japanese are the enemy, which they seek to subjugate/destroy.
If you would have trolled the chinese sites, you'd understand why brahma chellaney is so obsessed with the chinese. They regard "deception" as a tool to achieve goals. They aim to win. They believe in attacking the weak and avoiding the strong. They view pride and glory as a liability.

Never, ever trust the chinese. Their intentions are wicked. One of the reasons why most of the chinese sites are blocked to the outside world. They do not want people to read what they write.

Chinese proxy warfare popularly known as the "string of pearls" is more than just that. They are actually following the basic fundamentals of warfare as dictated by sun tzu.

Ten times strength - surround them
Five times strength - attack them
Double strength - Engage them
Equal strength - be able to divide them
Fewer - be able to evade them
Weaker - be able to avoid them

India and china fall in the bolded one. So far the chinese have divided our resources(human and material) in three sides - pakistan, china and bangladesh. They feel it is not enough and hence are working in SL and nepal.

I have plotted sun tzu's work in 56 points. I can post it if someone wants. It will let you know how the chinese think. The chinese warfare strategy is heartless.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

Devesh wrote:
It's unfinished business alright. The Chinese people view Indians and Americans as competitors, which they seek to undermine, but the Japanese are the enemy, which they seek to subjugate/destroy.
And yet it is the depredations of Imperial Japan in China which gave rise to the Chinese Communist movement. Basically, the attitude of the pre-Communist Chinese govt towards Japanese massacres of Chinese civilians during WW2 was very Kaangress-like.
("Oh, Japanese Jihadis have massacred your family? Yawn - let me know when they've finished off your whole village, because I can't really be bothered to get out of bed before then. Hey, why not start a Village Defense Council, if you're really so troubled?")

It was the Kaangress-like abdication of responsibility by the Chinese Nationalist govt that turned the people against them and drove them into the arms of the Chinese Communist Party. In typical Kaangress style, the Chinese Nationalists wanted to rule, but not actually deliver fundamental things like basic security to the public. Those rulers were in full Chidambaram mode. The peasantry were totally helpless and at the mercy of the Japanese Imperialist jihad, and ended up massacred.

I remember way back in school, a poli sci teacher pointed out to me that while American children may go outside to play cowboys-and-indians, or americans-vs-soviets, the russian children would play russians-vs-germans. Such was their trauma from WW2 German invasions, that the Germans were the #1 enemy in their psyche.

I'm in favour of Russo-German reconciliation and alliance of course, because I feel that Russo-German antagonism only feeds Atlanticism, which hurts us. Conversely, as the Atlanticists thrive on Russo-German antagonism in Europe, they favour China-Japan reconciliation on the Asia side, to minimize any distractions over there.

Many of us Indians have hoped - perhaps in vain - that competition between Japan and China would eventually benefit us. That doesn't look to have happened, since the US has tightly bound Japan in place.

Atlanticists, including Dalrymple in his latest posted article, want us to hand over Kashmir to appease Pak and end out conflict. By the same token, we could loudly ask the US to abandon Taiwan to China, which even the Atlanticists would gladly agree with, but this would of course upset Japan.

India has been the sacrificial lamb on the international altar, because we've been the weakest. When NPT was brought out, it catered to China while sacrificing Indian interests. Same with MTCR, same with the Afghan jihad policy, etc. But now India's economy is rising, we have access to the nuclear energy markets denied to us for so long, and our fortune is generally rising. So we're no longer the weakest, to be made into the international sacrificial lamb. Somebody else can take that role in our place.

Meanwhile, Japan seems to be declining, from one bad news to the next.
Their economy is contracting, their wealth is disappearing, their population is aging.
All the fundamentals seem to be on a downtrend for them.
Should we feel terribly bad for them? Well, if they were in vigorous competition with China, perhaps I'd feel a little more for them. But they seem to have bowed out of that competition, and only looked to the US for their future, which is now suddenly looking rocky. And they did give rise to the Chinese Communist phenomenon that has caused us so much suffering. So maybe we ought to view Japan as being the next sacrificial lamb. At least that would appease China, whose kids probably play Han-vs-Japanese in the schoolyard.
Maybe it's now Japan's turn to be the sacrificial lamb on the international altar, for everybody else to feed off of.
Oh, we can outwardly smile at them of course - just as they did to us while we were the sacrificial lamb.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by brihaspati »

The Japanese perhaps were not directly responsible for rise of Chinese communism. The CPC was started in 1920-21, and before that study circles had been formed. The chief role was played in this by two "Peking" university profs - one of them one of the father-in-laws of Mao. In a way, the KMT was more responsible - because in the initial stages. KMT allowed the communists to become dual members of KMT and work from within the KMT.

However, the real contribution towards communism came from the support and resources that two key figures - Mao and Chu Teh were able to access. These were not from Japan. Chu Teh derived from one of the famous "military schools" set up from initiatives to modernize the Chinese army started in Republican China under San Yat Sen and with substantial western inputs. [It is another issue as to the components - some German some Russian, etc] while Mao derives from one of the "western style" "normal schools"- in its turn with a strong European and Christian undercurrent.

The myth about Communists gaining from Japanese atrocities and Chiang's supposed cowardly flight to the south is a complicated result of crosscurrents in propaganda.

The CPC was not fighting the Japs really seriously until their base area in the south was finally crushed in the fifth encirclement campaign by Chiang. Some KMT generals were indeed seriosuly fighting in the north - for example one particular commander whose son actually mad e amini-coup and abducted Chiang while on a visit and forced Chiang to make a treaty of "united front against Japs".

The CPC decided to escape to save complete annihilation and cleverly raised the slogan that they were abandoning base to go and fight the Japs in the North. On the way Maos' "fluid base" and "guerrilla" tactic line was reaffirmed (after being abndoned and Mao sidelined in the previous years) at the Tsunyi party meeting, and the 8th route army embarked on the mythical Long March. For a large part of this March they moved west to escape Chiang and reached the distant NE chinese regions in the sort of "gray" area - where Chinese control was never really that direct. It was from here that they tried to pretend that they were fighting the Japs in the north. However, note that they were unable to even get Manchuria which was closer to their base, and much more inland compared to the coastal stronghold of Japan - until the defeat of teh Japanese army and surrender to the Soviets.

What the CPC mostly did was to expand their own base and organization and military while Chiangs reach was absent in this remote area. For a time even the Americans contemplated helping Mao and CPC out!
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