Managing Chinese Threat

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Samudragupta wrote:Tracking the PLAAN SSBN and SSN in the shallow waters of SCS is a good enough objective....IN will be no match to fight the PLAAN in the SCS...and PLAAN will be using overwelming force on any IN assets in the area....
We should look at this thing in an Alliance terms - an alliance between India, Vietnam and Philippines, and Thailand and Indonesia (if they want to be a part of it).

We help them build up their naval forces, and the responsibility for defense of the Southeast Asia Sea (SCS) falls on all three.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

shyamd wrote:Probably not TN's, as it gives too much capability for Viets.

Viets should be able to take care of its adversary quite easily, if the grapevines are to be believed.
Our own arsenal needs much more testing. Obviously the country that helps us with that should get some of the rewards.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Checkmating China: Counter-Alliance Framework

Vietnam and Philippines are countries most affected by Chinese aggressiveness in the Southeast Asia Sea (SCS). Then there is Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, who too have been rubbed the wrong way by China.

Together these countries - India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines have everything they need to build up a credible military alliance. The technology, the manpower, the strategic locations.

What is also needed is that these countries need to come much closer to each other in cultural terms, as societies, for this alliance to develop a sense of belonging together, to develop a sense of responsibility for the other.

There is a need to get much much closer to Vietnam and Philippines. At least Vietnam, Philippines and India can have a mutual visa on arrival policy with stay up to 59 days. We should be exchanging students and giving them stipends to go and study in the other country. We need to allow immigration from these countries to a limited level, so that Vietnamese and Filipinos become part of the Indian landscape, acting as our ambassadors to these countries, and offering their perspective to our society.

This is not just some idea for holding hands, but a strategic necessity for our three countries.
rajrang
BRFite
Posts: 416
Joined: 24 Jul 2006 08:08

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by rajrang »

It is interesting that ASEAN as a group did not speak out against China's misbehaviors towards Vietnam and the Phillipines. If they did I missed it in the press. As a group, ASEAN with 600 million people, a PPP GNP 75% of India and its geographical location is a potential giant that could checkmate China in SE Asia particularly with backing from Japan, India and the US. If ASEAN became a more unfied entity politically and militarily (instead of mainly economically at present), then the security of the Asia will be significantly enhanced. Further if SARC (minus TSP) were to join ASEAN and Japan in a politcal and military alliance, then China can forget its global power dreams.
Samudragupta
BRFite
Posts: 625
Joined: 12 Nov 2010 23:49
Location: Some place in the sphere

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Samudragupta »

rajrang wrote:It is interesting that ASEAN as a group did not speak out against China's misbehaviors towards Vietnam and the Phillipines. If they did I missed it in the press. As a group, ASEAN with 600 million people, a PPP GNP 75% of India and its geographical location is a potential giant that could checkmate China in SE Asia particularly with backing from Japan, India and the US. If ASEAN became a more unfied entity politically and militarily (instead of mainly economically at present), then the security of the Asia will be significantly enhanced. Further if SARC (minus TSP) were to join ASEAN and Japan in a politcal and military alliance, then China can forget its global power dreams.
There is no reason why ASEAN shud move towards a politco-millitary alliance...i mean for forging any such alliance u need some level of ideological inclinations amongst its members...What is the ideology of ASEAN? Moreover any millitary alliance needs an enemy threatning the member's existence....Who is the enemy here? Certainly all the ASEAN members does not think that China is the enemy....Intrestingly every available security architecture in SEA consists of both India and China....from the perspective of the ASEAN that makes perfect sense to balance out the other.....and they are not going to integrate SAARC with it...instead they are looking at ASEAN+3(Aus/Jpn/Chn)...in the future it will be ASEAN+4 when India will be able to join it....
Kati
BRFite
Posts: 1909
Joined: 27 Jun 1999 11:31
Location: The planet Earth

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Kati »

A must listen radio program...

TIGER TRAP

http://thedianerehmshow.org/shows/2011- ... tiger-trap

(tracking chinese agents in the US by FBI)
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Published on Jul 15th, 2011
By Jeffrey M. Tupas and Ryan D. Rosauro
China will become ‘ruthless monster,’ says Indon expert: Philippine Daily Inquirer
Andi Widjajanto, a professor at the Department on International Relations Studies at the Universitas Indonesia based in Depok, said China would become a “ruthless monster” by then and trigger conflict in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) region.

“China will rule over the region and the world and its financial and military dominance will ignite resistance and militaristic reaction from member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations,” he told reporters attending a German-funded training here.

By 2050, Widjajanto said, China would become the most powerful country in the world.

“China will become the threat… it will not only become the giant but it will become the monster,” Widjajanto, also one of the members of a team that reviewed the Indonesian National Defense System, said.
abhishek_sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9664
Joined: 19 Nov 2009 03:27

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by abhishek_sharma »

The Persistent Military Security Dilemma between China and India: Jonathan Holslag
Journal of Strategic Studies, 2009.

This contains a good summary of recent developments.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Published on Jul 18, 2011
By Sergey Balmasov
India and USA to protect Vietnam from China: Pravda
Vietnam is not alone in a festering territorial dispute with China. In the near future Indian warships will arrive into the South China Sea. This is a group of destroyers CMD (controlled missile defense).

But there is more to it: at the end of June there were reports from New Delhi that the Indian Navy intends to settle in the South China Sea for a long time. The Indian side is expected to establish a permanent military presence there.

According to the official government version of India, this will help the Navy of India to play a more prominent role in South-East Asia where strategic shipping lines are located.

By doing this, India, as one of the major competitors of China in the region, intends to prevent the far-reaching plans of China to expand its sphere of influence. It is no secret that China intends to establish full control over all the islands in the South China Sea.

At the moment, it controls the Paracel Islands seized in 1974 from South Vietnam, as well as a smaller part of the Spratly archipelago. The severity of the dispute is explained not only by the importance of shipping lanes from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean, but also the wealth of biological resources of the South China Sea and, most importantly, large deposits of hydrocarbons on the shelf.

In particular, the Vietnamese side provides the entry for the Indian warships and naval bases in Nhatraneg and Halong Bay. In addition, India offers aid to Vietnam to increase its naval power by building ships and training of Vietnamese sailors.

Hanoi is not able to withstand the Chinese pressure at sea. This is clearly demonstrated by the events of 1988 when the Chinese were able to capture the Spratly archipelago and win a landslide victory in the clash with Vietnamese Navy.

Since then, the gap between the Chinese and the Vietnamese Navy has increased many times not in favor of the latter. Several years ago, Vietnam's leadership took steps to reduce it. In particular, they purchased six diesel submarines from Russia. Nevertheless, their presence could not stop the Chinese who have much more powerful navy.

In the last six months, they have been actively demonstrating their muscles not only to the Vietnamese but also Filipinos who are also claiming a part of the Spratly archipelago. The severity of the territorial dispute has reached such a high level that Manila recently asked Washington to interfere, and tried to develop a united front with Vietnam to cope with the "China threat."

However, the Chinese Navy is decisively superior to the battle fleets of Vietnam and the Philippines combined, and in the event of military conflict the chances of Manila and Hanoi at sea are minimal.

Recently, the likelihood of this scenario has markedly increased. In late May, the tension between China - Vietnam and China - the Philippines has increased dramatically. The parties sent additional Navy forces to the problem areas. Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung on June 14 issued a decree in this regard on conscription of sailors in the event of further escalation of the conflict with China.

The latter, based on the balance of power, is clearly not afraid and shows determination and full control over the Spratly archipelago. An additional impetus is given by high world prices on hydrocarbons, on the one hand, and the lack of progress in Chinese-Russian negotiations on gas prices, on the other.

However, the establishment of China's full control over the islands of the South China Sea has created enormous problems for the countries of South and Southeast Asia. Even in Indonesia, not to mention Malaysia and the Philippines, there are growing fears that China might use the Spratly as a springboard to leap into the South Seas countries.

As for India, there is another reason why the growing Chinese expansion in the region has caused such a strong opposition. Recently its opponent Pakistan decided to give the Chinese a naval base on its shores. In case of further strengthening of China in the South China Sea, India is risking to be extremely disadvantaged in terms of strategic position.

However, speaking of the commotion caused by the Chinese activity, we should not forget about "the singer behind the scenes." The United States plays a significant role in building the anti-Chinese alliance with India.

Since December of 2007 the influential American officials, including the chief of the CIA, have been paying regular visits to Vietnam. In the face of rising threats from the Chinese, the parties are demonstrating their intent to forget past grievances. This once again emphasizes that despite the anticipated military demonstrations in India the U.S. warships will arrive to the Vietnamese coast in the near future.

They will not limit themselves with "courtesy calls" and will conduct trainings with the Vietnamese Navy. Of course, it has already provoked a nervous reaction in China that urged the U.S. to "not interfere in the territorial disputes in the South China Sea." Yet, this outcry is unlikely to scare the Americans who will be increasing their activity in the region as China's activities are enhancing. Otherwise they will lose the strategically important in terms of geopolitics territory to the Chinese.
So it seems India is finally willing to take the plunge into the cold water.
Last edited by RajeshA on 18 Jul 2011 17:55, edited 1 time in total.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Published on Jul 18, 2011
By Colleen McKown
Tibetans, Vietnamese Demonstrate Together in Munich: The Tibet Post
Many Vietnamese, also feeling that China is a threat to their security, stood in solidarity in protest with the Tibetans. China has occupied land along the Vietnamese-Chinese border, and they have also established control over the Paracel Islands and Spratly Islands.

"The Vietnamese German Community...is lending the fellow people our hands by doing any possibility to protest the Chinese expansion plot," said the Free Vietnamese Community in Bavaria.

In regard to propaganda in Tibet, which has recently increased due to the upcoming 60th Anniversary celebrations, Brigitte Graefin von Bulow of the United Nations for a Free Tibet (UNFFT) said that though the Chinese propaganda is largely the same as it was many years before, Tibetans remain discontented. "China, who invaded peaceful and independent Tibet in 1949, has had 60 years to win Tibetan hearts and minds, but has utterly failed."

Other such protests will take place in Sydney and Melbourne, Australia, and in Washington, DC, USA at later times. During these protests, Tibetan, Vietnamese, Uyghur, and Mongolian people will come together to demonstrate for "Action for Tibet and Vietnam."
People of the World Unite! :twisted:
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Published on Jul 08, 2011
By James Rhodes
U.S. Must Resolve to End Chinese Tyranny
Today a similar threat exists that threatens to destabilize the world. Not as well known as the designs of a Hitler or Stalin but nonetheless as insidious, calculating, and cunning. Its origins are east of the Gulf of Tonkin in a region the Vietnamese, and myself, refer to as the Eastern Sea. Of course, the Chinese refer to it as the South China Sea, after all, they are the strongman of the region and in their attempt to rewrite history have intimidated and murdered those that oppose their power grabs.

It matters not that the Eastern Sea contains about 30,000 islands and reefs. Collectively some of these small land masses are claimed by Vietnam, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. Because they are in the “South China Sea” apparently all of them belong to China irregardless of real history.

Ancient Chinese texts of Ling Wai Da and Zhu Fan Zhi indicate that Hoang Sa (Paracel Islands) and Tru’o’ng Sa (Spratly Islands) were associated with and part of what is now northern Vietnam. This fact was again repeated in literature of the 17th Century; an atlas of the region in 1838; and by Western imperialist France through the Nguyen Dynasty in 1887 and 1933. There have been numerous, unrelated references linking the Paracel Islands and the Spratly Islands to Vietnam from ancient times. However, at the conclusion of WWII, China attempted to land grab in the Eastern Sea; but, the Cairo Declaration supported Vietnam’s claim to the islands. This position was affirmed at the San Francisco Conference on the Peace Treaty with Japan in 1951.

To date China has been most successful with their quest to obtain additional territories and land masses. In 1950 China annexed Tibet. China now has control of the Panama Canal :shock: and as of 1997, Hong Kong, and in 1999 secured Macau.

In 1988 China, unprovoked, launched an attack against Vietnamese carrying the national flag on the Spratly Islands. This was a calculated act of murder that should have outraged the entire world. Over 64 Vietnamese were needlessly killed and others went unaccounted for in the face of this naked aggression. To date the Chinese military, as a matter of policy, continues to harass all non-Chinese fishermen and scientific vessels in the “South China Sea.” Recently they have rammed and sunk Vietnamese fishing boats and taken entire crews hostage.

Senator John McCain has publically stated he does not support China’s claims in the Eastern Sea. On 23 July 2010 Secretary of State Hillary Clinton proposed a regional solution to the Eastern Sea problem. It was soon thereafter reported in the MANILA TIMES that Chinese Foreign Minister, Yang Jiechi, said that “the Vietnamese invitation to the United States to mediate (the Eastern Sea problem) was AN ATTACK ON CHINA.” These are the ramblings of an aggressor bully meant to intimidate the weak. This is 1935 Hitler. This is 1945 Stalin. The Eastern Sea does not belong solely to China and the world must insure that China will never control all its access and resources. An appeasement of the aggressor bully today will certainly set the stage for another armed conflict in the near future. All the other Southeastern Asian nations that are actively seeking a peaceful solution to this dilemma should not be dictated to by the only nation that has distorted the historical truth and then murdered to defend their lie.

It is in the interest of world peace, fairness, and justice that the world do the right thing today and support the documented Vietnamese sovereignty in the Paracel Islands and Spratly Islands. We must not fall victim to those that would misuse military might and the threat of violence to achieve their partisan political goals at the expense of those they feel are inferior just as Hitler did in the 1930s and Stalin during the 1940s!
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Published on Jul 18, 2011
Editorial
Chinese Military Chief's Rudeness Bodes Ill for the Future: Chosun
China's top military officer Chen Bingde launched into a 15-minute tirade against the U.S. during a meeting with South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin on Thursday. Chen said, "Being a superpower, the U.S. says this or that to other countries, but it never listens when other countries express themselves in a similar way." Chen added the actions of the U.S. suggest it wants to "overpower" other countries.

Chen's comments were discourteous and violated diplomatic protocol. The portion of a meeting between officials that is open to the press is a time to exchange greetings and other casual remarks, and officials commonly restrict their comments to bilateral issues. Using such a setting to harshly criticize a third country, and a close ally of the visitor's, is unlikely to make the visitor feel comfortable.
China sets great store by gaining exclusive control over the South China Sea, which connects Southeast Asian countries, and the East China Sea, which is connected to Korea and Japan. A power struggle is unavoidable between China and the U.S., which is seeking to keep Beijing's influence in the region in check. But China cannot afford an armed confrontation with the U.S. and has opted to pressure Washington's allies in the region instead. Chen's comments reflect that strategy.
China is a bully! Jo Beijing men G@@ndu, wo Seoul men bhi ...
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Published on Jul 18, 2011
By Tetsuo Kotani
Why China Wants South China Sea: The Diplomat
It’s clear that China’s claims and recent assertiveness have increased tensions in this key body of water. Yet while most attention has focused on Beijing’s appetite for fishery and energy resources, from a submariner’s perspective, the semi-closed sea is integral to China’s nuclear strategy. And without understanding the nuclear dimension of the South China Sea disputes, China’s maritime expansion makes little sense.

Possessing a credible sea-based nuclear deterrent is a priority for China's military strategy. China’s single Type 092, or Xia-class, nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, equipped with short-range JL-1 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), has never conducted a deterrent patrol from the Bohai Sea since its introduction in the 1980s. However, China is on the verge of acquiring credible second-strike capabilities with the anticipated introduction of JL-2 SLBMs (with an estimated range of 8,000 kilometres) coupled with DF-31 and DF-31A road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). In addition, China plans to introduce up to five Type 094, or Jin-class, SSBNs outfitted with the JL-2 missiles, while constructing an underwater submarine base on Hainan Island in the South China Sea.

It’s clear, then, that China is making every effort to keep the South China Sea off limits, just as the Soviet Union did in the Sea of Okhotsk during the Cold War. Back then, the Soviet Union turned to SSBNs as insurance against US capabilities to destroy land-based ICBMs. The need to secure its insurance force from attacks, and the need for effective command and control, meant that Soviet SSBNs had to be deployed close to home, with longer-range missiles to be used to strike the continental United States. In addition to the Barents Sea, Moscow prioritized making the Sea of Okhotsk a safe haven for SSBNs by improving the physical defences of the Kuril Islands and reinforcing the Pacific Fleet based at Vladivostok. The Soviet Pacific Fleet deployed 100 submarines, combined with 140 surface warships, including a Kiev-class light aircraft carrier, to defend its insurance force in the Sea of Okhotsk.

Likewise, China needs to secure its forces in the South China Sea and modify its maritime strategy and doctrine accordingly.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Published on Jul 15, 2011
By David Brown
Folly and the South China Sea: Asia Times Online
Talk of a "second Daqing" is just an understatement according to other Chinese geologists. Chinese estimates cited by US Government analysts put the potential hydrocarbon bounty of the South China Sea area at 14 times China's current oil reserves and 10 times its gas reserves.

Whatever oil and gas turns out to be beneath the waves, hard evidence is mounting that China aims to find and secure by far the lion's share.


:twisted: :twisted:
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Published on Jul 12, 2011
By B. Raman
China’s Strategic Eggs in South Asia: SAAG
China is not a South Asian power, but it has been seeking to build up for itself a strong South Asian presence which could cater to its strategic needs in the long term.

2. It has made inroads in the South Asian countries in recent years by taking advantage of their hunger for the development of their infrastructure and their requirement of financial assistance for major infrastructure projects and for the exploitation of their natural resources.

3. While India too has been helping these countries in these fields, China has definitely had an advantage over India due to its large cash reserve built up from its huge trade surpluses and the reservoir of excellent construction engineers with experience in infrastructure building which it has built up over the years.

4. The fact that China has no contentious issues affecting its bilateral relations with these countries --- as against many contentious issues in the relations of India with its neighbours--- has also worked to its advantage.

5. The Chinese policy in the South Asian region has a mix of the strategic and the opportunistic dimensions--- that is, working for carefully calculated long-term strategic objectives while not missing short and medium term opportunities that come its way. One sees the strategic dimension in the case of its relations with Pakistan. One sees a mix of the two in its relations with other South Asian countries.

6. Its relations with Pakistan, which continue to enjoy the highest priority, are driven by a strong strategic calculus. That calculus arises from its perceived need for a second front to keep India preoccupied.

7. In its strategic calculation, its ability to prevent a military conflict with India would depend on a strong military-related capability in Tibet and a strong Pakistani military capability in the nuclear and conventional fields.

8. That is what it has been trying to do. It has been trying to see that Pakistan has an edge over India in its military nuclear capability, including the delivery vehicles. It has been strengthening Pakistan’s offensive and defensive air and naval capabilities. After the recent raid by the US naval commandos in Abbottabad to kill Osama bin Laden on May 2, 2011, it has promised to expedite the delivery of aircraft needed by the PAF to strengthen its air defence capability. {Against US too?}

9. Simultaneously, it has also been helping Pakistan in repairing and upgrading the Karakoram Highway and has promised to help in the construction of other roads. A feasibility study for the construction of a railway line from Xinjiang through Gilgit-Baltistan has been undertaken.

10. Of the various proposals received from Pakistan for the development of its infrastructure, China has given high priority to those relating to Gilgit-Baltistan and low priority to those relating to Balochistan. {First order of business is to prop-up Pakistan against India} It has not shown an interest in taking up for the time being Pakistan’s proposals for the upgradation of the Gwadar commercial port built earlier with Chinese assistance into a naval base. Similarly, it has been going slow in follow-up action on other pending Pakistani proposals for the construction of a petro-chemical complex in Gwadar and oil-gas pipelines from Gwadar to Xinjiang.

11. The priority given by China to infrastructure projects in the Gilgit-Baltistan area is meant to enable Pakistan protect this area from any future Indian threats and give the Pakistani armed forces the capability to pose a credible threat to India, which would serve China’s strategic objective too.

12. There have been unconfirmed reports from a US journalist about the presence of a little over 10,000 Chinese troops in the Gilgit-Baltistan area. If true, these reports would further underline China’s strategic objectives in Pakistan.

13. A significant development post-Abbottabad was the strong defence of Pakistan’s counter-terrorism record by Beijing and its attempts to see that no harm came to Pakistan as a result of US suspicions regarding possible Pakistani complicity--- governmental or non-governmental--- in sheltering OBL for a little over five years in Abbottabad.

14. Thus, China’s strategic interest in protecting Pakistan, strengthening its capabilities and maintaining the effectiveness of the threat that it could pose to India in times of need remains as strong as ever. It will remain so even if there is an improvement in India’s relations with China and Pakistan.

15. The Sino-Pakistan axis means not only the need for our being able to fight on two fronts simultaneously in times of war, but also a two-front capability for the collection of intelligence in times of peace. Collection of intelligence ---human and technical-- from China requires capabilities totally different from those required for the collection of intelligence from Pakistan. Our strategic planning has to cater to requirements in times of war as well as peace.

16. Next to Pakistan, Nepal enjoys the second priority in China’s strategic calculation. The importance of Nepal to China’s strategic thinkers and planners arises not only because of its potential for being used against India in times of peace as well as war, but also because of its potential to India for being used to create instability in Tibet if there are disturbances there after the death of His Holiness the Dalai Lama. In China’s calculation, Nepal can be a double-edged sword.

17. How to strengthen the potential of Nepal for being used against India? It is for this purpose that the Chinese have been trying to extend their road and rail network from Tibet to Nepal and to develop close relations with the Maoists headed by Prachanda and their cadres who are likely to be integrated into the Nepal army. Strengthening China’s political, economic and military influence in Nepal by taking advantage of the presence of the Maoists in power is an important objective of Beijing.

18. Military-military relationship has been given increasing attention since 1998, when the Nepal Army started sending officers and soldiers to study in Chinese military universities. In the academic year 2006/2007, 21 officers and soldiers of the Nepal Army went to China for training. China has sent military officers to participate in the adventure trainings organized by the Nepal Army since 2002.

19. Addressing the Nepal Council of World Affairs at Kathmandu on August 5, 2008, the then Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Zheng Xianglin said: "Nepal is situated in a favorable geographical position in South Asia, and is a passage linking China and South Asia."

20. That is the principal reason for the Chinese interest in Nepal----as a passage to South Asia and as an instrument for strengthening the Chinese presence in South Asia. China has a Look South policy to counter our Look East policy. As we try to move Eastwards to cultivate the countries of South-East Asia, it is trying to move southwards to outflank us.

21. China has already given indications of its interest in strengthening the value of Nepal as a passage to South Asia by connecting the road network in Tibet with that in Nepal and by extending the railway line to Lhasa to Kathmandu. If China succeeds in concretising the seide as, the threats to our security will be enhanced.

22. China has other reasons to welcome the rise of the Maoists to power in Nepal. It is hoping with reason that Nepal would stop the anti-China activities of the 1000-strong community of Tibetan refugees in Nepal. They have been in the forefront of the agitation against the Han colonisation of Tibet. Some of them are being used by the US Govt. funded Radio Free Asia for producing programmes directed to the Tibetans. China apprehends that if there is unrest in Tibet after the death of the Dalai Lama, these refugees might be utilised by the US----with the complicity of India--- to destabilise the Chinese presence in Tibet. It is hoping to pre-empt this with the co-operation of a Maoist-dominated Government in Kathmandu.

23. India finds itself in Nepal in a situation not dissimilar to the situation in Myanmar----all the time having to compete with China for political influence and economic benefits. Till now, India almost monopolised the strategic playing field in Nepal. Now, there is a second player in China. In Myanmar, whenever the former military Government had to choose between Indian and Chinese interests, it always chose the Chinese interests because of its fear of China and its gratitude to China for the support extended by it to the former military junta in international for a such as the UN Security Council. In Nepal whenever there is a conflict between Indian and Chinese interests, a Maoist-dominated Govt. may choose Chinese interests not out of fear or gratitude but out of considerations of ideological affinity.

24. It is in India’s interest to see that China does not succeed in its objectives in Nepal. In Pakistan, India has no cards which it can use to counter the Chinese objectives. In Nepal, India has more cards than China and it should not hesitate to use them intelligently to counter the Chinese designs. India continues to have a much stronger economic presence in Nepal than China. India still has many objective allies in the non-Maoist segment of the population and administration. It should not hesitate to use these cards to maintain its influence in Nepal and to counter the Chinese designs.

25. Bangladesh has the third priority for China. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, despite her strong friendship for India, has continued with the look East policy of her predecessor Begum Khalida Zia and strengthened the links with China. During her visit to China, an agreement was signed with a Chinese company for oil/gas exploration in Bangladesh. She also sought Chinese help for the upgradation of Chittagong into a modern deep sea port. Her Government has sought to calm Indian concerns by reassuring India that India will also be allowed to use the Chittagong port modernized with Chinese help.

26. At least, Sri Lanka and Myanmar sought to treat India on par with China by granting it equal rights of oil/gas exploration, but Bangladesh has not given any such contracts to India due to strong local opposition to India playing any role in the development of its energy resources.

27. SheikhHasina also reportedly discussed with the Chinese plans for linking Yunnan with Bangladesh through Myanmar by a modern road. If the Chinese company finds oil or gas in Bangladesh it is only a question of time before the Chinese production facilities in Bangladesh are connected with those in the Arakan area of Myanmar so that oil and gas from Bangladesh can flow direct to Yunnan through the pipeline connecting Arakan with Yunnan now being constructed. There has also been talk of a Chinese-aided railway line from Yunnan to Bangladesh via Myanmar

28. Bangladesh news agencies reported that during the visit of Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping to Dhaka on June 13 and 14, 2010, Mr.Xi “proposed to give assistance to Bangladesh for building a deep seaport in Chittagong and installing the country's first space satellite”. Briefing reporters on the outcome of the talks, Foreign Minister Dipu Moni said the Chinese side assured more investment in Bangladesh, and promised to reduce the bilateral trade imbalance by allowing more Bangladeshi products to have duty-free access to the Chinese market. She added that the Chinese agreed to help Bangladesh in ensuring food security and in combating militancy and terrorism.

29. Sri Lanka occupies the fourth place in Chinese strategic planning in South Asia. More than 50 per cent of the funding received by Sri Lanka from abroad for construction and development projects since President Mahinda Rajapaksa came to power came from China. China has been assisting Sri Lanka in the construction of the Hambantota port, the Maththala international airport at Hambantota, a new container terminal in Colombo and the Colombo--Katunayake Expressway. It has also agreed to help in the modernisation of the railways.

30. There are no indications so far that China is going to help Sri Lanka in upgrading the commercial port at Hambantota the first stage of which has already been commissioned into a naval base for use by the Chinese or the Sri Lankan Navy or both. Hambantota is a good example of the opportunistic dimension of China’s strategic thinking and planning. The idea for the construction of an international port of modern standards comparable to if not better than Colombo at Hambantota was reportedly initially broached by the Sri Lankan Government with the Government of India. When New Delhi did not react positively, Colombo turned to Beijing which pounced on the opportunity to get a foothold in the port sector in Sri Lanka.

31. The indications are that China’s interest in helping the countries of the South Asian region in the development of their port infrastructure is related to its need to ensure the security of its energy supplies from West Asia and Africa. It has no naval power projection dimension at present.

32. Till now, the main driver of China’s strategic interest in Gwadar, Hambantota and Chittagong has been the perceived need for refuelling, re-stocking and rest and recreation facilities for its oil/gas tankers and naval ships deputed for anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden area. China is not yet interested in an overseas naval base, but is interested in overseas logistic facilities for its oil/gas tankers and for its naval vessels.

33. Individual retired officers of the People’s Liberation Army (Navy) have been talking of the likely long-term need for an overseas naval base in the Indian Ocean area, but the Communist Party of China (CPC) has been discouraging such talk. Presently, the Chinese interest in playing a role in the development of the port infrastructure is not designed to place its Navy in a position as to be able to challenge the primacy presently enjoyed by the Navies of the US and India in the Indian Ocean region.

34. China has seen as to how the over-assertiveness of its Navy in the South China Sea has had a negative impact on the comfort level of its relations with the ASEAN countries. The Indian Ocean is not comparable to the South China Sea. China has no territorial claims to islands in the Indian Ocean area. It has no disputes relating to fishing and exploration of oil and gas with any of the countries of the Indian Ocean region. China and its Navy are, therefore, welcomed by the countries of the region. This comfortable position could change if China graduates from energy security to power projection in its strategic planning for the Indian Ocean region.

35. I do not expect this to happen in the short and medium terms (five to 10 years). However, if the Chinese strategic thinking changes in the long-term, what could be the new threats to India and what will be the options for our Navy? We have to start thinking on this.

36. After Pakistan, Sri Lanka provides a good example of the use of a military supply relationship by China to advance its strategic interests. Over the years, we had seen how China uses its military supply relationship with Pakistan in the nuclear and conventional fields for keeping Pakistan closely tied to it and for countering India. In recent years, we have been seeing the use of a military supply relationship with Sri Lanka for increasing the Chinese influence in Sri Lanka. The Chinese readiness to supply modern and heavy arms and ammunition to the Sri Lankan Armed Forces without worrying about the moral implications of its actions played an important role in helping the Sri Lankan Army crush the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) ruthlessly. Next to an infrastructure development relationship, a military supply relationship has become an important addition to China’s basket of strategic eggs.

37. I will make a passing reference to the incipient Chinese interest in the Maldives, which has emerged as a favourite tourist destination of Chinese tourists. China has been helping the Maldives in the fields of house construction and modernising some aspects of its banking infrastructure such as the installation and operation of Automatic Teller Machines for the benefit of foreign tourists. We have to closely monitor the evolution of its interest in the Maldives.

38. It is important for India to challenge China’s monopoly in the infrastructure development sector in the South Asian region. Presence in the infrastructure sector has a strategic importance. We must be able to find the funds and the required number of construction engineers for this.

39. India has three advantages over China which it must exploit vigorously to increase its strategic presence in the region and to counter the Chinese presence.

a. Firstly, India provides a huge market next door for the products of these countries. Their traders value the Indian market more than the Chinese market. We should be generous in our trade concessions in order to keep them attracted to India and prevent them from drifting towards China.

b. Secondly, India could play an important role in helping these countries develop their educational facilities such as institutions for technology studies.

c. Thirdly, culturally, the people of these countries still look up to India and not to China. India’s soft power has to be effectively utilised for strengthening our presence and influence in these countries. China is not in a position to compete with us in soft power.

40.Whether India should compete with China in selling arms and ammunition and nuclear technology to these countries has to be carefully considered keeping in view the implications of the likely use of Indian arms and ammunition by these countries against their dissident elements, which often look up to India for moral support. As regards the supply of nuclear technology, India may not be in a position to provide the kind of financial back-up that China provides.
VinodTK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3287
Joined: 18 Jun 2000 11:31

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by VinodTK »

Cross posting from PRC thread

Dealing with Chinese aggression
:
One sees a similar Chinese ‘assertiveness” in dealing with boundary issues with India. Not only is claim being laid to the entire State of Arunachal Pradesh, but China is now alluding to the length of the Sino-Indian border as 2,000 km instead of the actual length of 3,488 km, thereby excluding its borders in the western sector with Jammu and Kashmir from the ambit of differences over the Sino-Indian border.
INDIA'S TOO MEEK

Forever apologetic and defensive in dealing with an “assertive” China, South Block has yet to acknowledge that this constitutes a significant change in China's approach to the issue of Jammu and Kashmir, and indeed in its approach to the entire border issue.
:
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

X-Posting from PRC Thread
shyamd wrote:serious issues.
Bagdogra IAF meet to discuss China threat
Jayanta Gupta, TNN Jun 29, 2011, 01.37am IST KOLKATA: A two-day commanders' conference of the Eastern Air Command (EAC) will begin at Air Force Station Bagdogra from Wednesday. Air chief marshal PV Naik, IAF chief of air staff, and other officers from Delhi Air headquarters will hold meetings with officers from this part of the country at this conference, which is being hosted by Air marshal KK Nohwar, AOC-in-C, EAC.

"Several operational matters will be discussed in the conference, first-of-its-kind at Bagdogra. With China's aggressive moves along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) turning into a major cause for concern, Bagdogra has emerged as the most important air base in the EAC, which is in charge of operations in the North East. Bagdogra is situated at the 'chicken neck', which is a narrow corridor that connects the northeastern states to the rest of the country," an officer said.

Military strategists believe that should China decide to launch a full-fledged attack on India, it would send in troops through Bhutan to try and cut-off the North East. Under such circumstances, the role of Bagdogra will be crucial. No wonder, the base has been fitted with advanced radars and other long-range surveillance equipment. To counter any threat from across the border, air bases in the northeastern states are being upgraded on a priority basis. Su-30 MKI air-superiority fighters have already been stationed at Tezpur and Advanced Landing Grounds are being restored.

"It has been announced by Air headquarters that more assets will be stationed in the east and North East as China has turned into more of a concern than Pakistan in the last few years. The fleet of ageing Mig-21 Bisons - the mainstay of the EAC -are being gradually phased out and will be replaced by the Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft that the IAF plans to acquire. But the deal is yet to be inked and it would take several years for the first lot of aircraft to arrive. Another problem is the non-availability of advanced radars to monitor the airspace across the mountainous LAC To keep Indian airspace free from incursions , the IAF has to use mobile radar stations. This has to be done as low-flying aircraft from China would be extremely difficult to detect should they follow the meandering course of the Brahmaputra," an officer said.

China maintains many more airfields, which can be made operational at short notice, close to the LAC than India does. Surveillance has revealed that the airfields across the LAC can be made operational at short notice.

Officials say that aircraft taking off from the Chinese airfields would have to compromise on fuel or armaments to maintain low weight in the rarefied atmosphere, as the bases are high-altitude ones. But this can hardly be considered an advantage with mid-air refuellers available.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

^^^
It is perhaps time to integrate Bhutan into the Indian Union. If possible Nepal also.
Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12686
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Pratyush »

Nepal has a well developed sense of nationhood, as does Bhutan. The best time to assimilate nepal would have been in the 1950/60 till the mid 70s. Today it will be just too messy.

Bhutan may be a different issue, but will the GOI want to do this?
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

That is why for its neighbors, India should try to define herself as the political agent of a ancient civilization and its ethos, and not as a nation-state in the modern sense.

India should state it is open for consolidation for all the droplets who consider themselves as part of the larger river. It is up to the droplets themselves if they wish to join the river, and experience its might.

But India being a civilization, it is natural that the people of the land would feel its pull, and that the political elites of these countries should rather embrace that pull instead of fighting against it.
chaanakya
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9513
Joined: 09 Jan 2010 13:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by chaanakya »

RajeshA wrote:^^^
It is perhaps time to integrate Bhutan into the Indian Union. If possible Nepal also.
Well I am with you.
Yayavar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4852
Joined: 06 Jun 2008 10:55

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Yayavar »

security umbrella and cooperation is one thing integration another. Nepal wanted to at one time, that time is gone. Bhutan is an independent state with very good relations with Inida.
RamaY
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17249
Joined: 10 Aug 2006 21:11
Location: http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RamaY »

RajeshA wrote:That is why for its neighbors, India should try to define herself as the political agent of a ancient civilization and its ethos, and not as a nation-state in the modern sense.

India should state it is open for consolidation for all the droplets who consider themselves as part of the larger river. It is up to the droplets themselves if they wish to join the river, and experience its might.

But India being a civilization, it is natural that the people of the land would feel its pull, and that the political elites of these countries should rather embrace that pull instead of fighting against it.
India declaring itself as a civilization is a major course correction for india itself, forget about the droplets. The current dispensation sold lot of snake oil all along that india is a sewer pipe.

When that self-realization dawns Bharat can take on these external snakes on it's own, irrespective of these droplets. The droplets are not what stopping india.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

viv wrote:security umbrella and cooperation is one thing integration another. Nepal wanted to at one time, that time is gone. Bhutan is an independent state with very good relations with Inida.
viv ji,

if there is a little spark, one can always get it to glow brighter lighting up a flame. It is a question only of developing a cultural movement in Nepal and Bhutan which identifies itself with the Indian Civilization. Secondly it is a question of a successful PR exercise, again a function of mind and money.

We need not accept the current state of affairs as some line in sand, which cannot be changed. It is self-defeating to say, that the situation in Nepal and Bhutan cannot be changed.

It is also not a question of good relations. It is a question of India being able to effectively repel Chinese influence and military pressure beyond Tibet into the Indian Subcontinent.
shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7100
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by shyamd »

Key is security cooperation. Which has always been central to our talks with His Majesty. I think they will side with India in the event of any major confrontation - see how Dalai Lama was dealt with and is being dealt with. Whatwas their position in 1962?

Nepal - different kettle of fish. We should have defeated the maoists. Now any pushing and shoving will cause a serious internal unrest.
Sushupti
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5198
Joined: 22 Dec 2010 21:24

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Sushupti »

McAfee says it has uncovered biggest-ever series of cyber attacks

Security company McAfee, which uncovered the intrusions, said it believed there was one “state actor” behind the attacks but declined to name it, though one security expert who has been briefed on the hacking said the evidence points to China.

The long list of victims in the five-year campaign include the governments of Canada, the United States, Taiwan, India, South Korea and Vietnam; the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); the International Olympic Committee (IOC); the World Anti-Doping Agency; and an array of companies, from defense contractors to high-tech enterprises.

In the case of the United Nations, the hackers broke into the computer system of the UN Secretariat in Geneva in 2008, hid there unnoticed for nearly two years, and quietly combed through reams of secret data, according to McAfee.

“Even we were surprised by the enormous diversity of the victim organizations and were taken aback by the audacity of the perpetrators,” McAfee’s vice-president of threat research, Dmitri Alperovitch, wrote in a 14-page report released on Wednesday.

“What is happening to all this data ... is still largely an open question. However, if even a fraction of it is used to build better competing products or beat a competitor at a key negotiation (due to having stolen the other team’s playbook), the loss represents a massive economic threat.”

McAfee learned of the extent of the hacking campaign in March this year, when its researchers discovered logs of the attacks while reviewing the contents of a “command and control” server that they had discovered in 2009 as part of an investigation into security breaches at defense companies.

It dubbed the attacks “Operation Shady RAT” and said the earliest breaches date back to mid-2006, though there might have been other intrusions as yet undetected. (RAT stands for “remote access tool,” a type of software that hackers and security experts use to access computer networks from afar.)

Some of the attacks lasted just a month, but the longest – on the Olympic Committee of an unidentified Asian nation – went on and off for 28 months, according to McAfee.

“Companies and government agencies are getting raped and pillaged every day. They are losing economic advantage and national secrets to unscrupulous competitors,” Mr. Alperovitch told Reuters.

“This is the biggest transfer of wealth in terms of intellectual property in history,” he said. “The scale at which this is occurring is really, really frightening.”

He said that McAfee had notified all the 72 victims of the attacks, which are under investigation by law enforcement agencies around the world. He declined to give more details, such as the names of the companies hacked.

Jim Lewis, a cyber expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, was briefed on the discovery by McAfee. He said it was very likely that China was behind the campaign because some of the targets had information that would be of particular interest to Beijing.

The systems of the IOC and several national Olympic Committees were breached in the run-up to the 2008 Beijing Games, for example.

And China views Taiwan as a renegade province, and political issues between them remain contentious even as economic ties have strengthened in recent years.

“Everything points to China. It could be the Russians, but there is more that points to China than Russia,” Mr. Lewis said.

He added that the U.S. and Britain have capabilities to pull off this kind of campaign, but said, “We wouldn’t spy on ourselves and the Brits wouldn’t spy on us.”

McAfee, which was acquired by Intel Corp. this year, would not comment on whether China was responsible. Security researchers who work for large corporations are often reluctant to link governments to cyber attacks out of fear it could hurt their business in those countries.

The UN said it was aware of the report, and that it has started an investigation to ascertain if there was an intrusion.

“The idea is to look into the entire Geneva network,” said Farhan Haq, deputy spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, adding that it was difficult to quantify the potential damage without knowing exactly what had been attacked.

He declined to be drawn on who might be behind the attacks. When asked what would happen if it turned out to be China, he said: “We’ll have to cross that bridge once we find out what happened to our network.”

McAfee released the report to coincide with the start of the Black Hat conference in Las Vegas on Wednesday, an annual gathering of security professionals and hackers who use their skills to promote security and fight cyber crime.

In the scorching desert heat, they will meet to talk about a series of recent headline-grabbing hacks, such as on Lockheed Martin Corp., the International Monetary Fund, Citigroup Inc., Sony Corp. and EMC Corp.’s RSA Security.

Experts will disclose security vulnerabilities in commonly used software, computers, services and electronics to help companies and governments combat criminal hackers.

The activist groups Anonymous and Lulz Security have recently grabbed the spotlight for temporarily shutting down some high-profile websites and defacing others.

But attacks like Operation Shady RAT are far more costly and often undisclosed, as victims fear reputational damage or attention from other hackers. McAfee sees Operation Shady RAT as the tip of the iceberg.

“I am convinced that every company in every conceivable industry with significant size and valuable intellectual property and trade secrets has been compromised (or will be shortly), with the great majority of the victims rarely discovering the intrusion or its impact,” Mr. Alperovitch wrote in the report.

“In fact, I divide the entire set of Fortune Global 2000 firms into two categories: those that know they’ve been compromised and those that don’t yet know.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/tec ... le2117891/
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60291
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ramana »

From Nightwatch, 2 August 2011
China-India: A Foreign Ministry spokesman told the press today, "With the guarantee of the Chinese government, China's State Oceanic Administration (SOA) submitted an application to the International Seabed Authority (ISA) in May 2010 to explore multimetal sulfides. ISA approved the application in July this year, giving SOA the right to explore mineral resources in a 10,000-km area under the international waters in southwest Indian Ocean."


According to regulations, SOA will sign a contract with ISA and during the period when the contract is valid SOA has the exclusive right to explore multimetal sulfides in the aforementioned mining area and will have priority to mine the resources in the future.


According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, international seabed resources are common assets that humankind has inherited. China's explorations of resources under international waters are conducive to understanding and exploiting international seabed resources, improving China's deep-sea science knowledge, protecting seabed environment and serving the common interests of humankind as a whole.


Comment: The statement above hit India like an atomic bomb because Indian authorities were unaware of China's application to mine in the Indian Ocean.


India-China: The Indian Express newspaper reported on 1 August that China's application for a deep-sea mining license in the "central Indian Ocean" has been cleared by an international body, leaving the Indian Ministries of Defence and External Affairs concerned. They fear Beijing may use it as "an excuse to operate their warships in this area".


It was on 19 July that the International Seabed Authority cleared China's request for exploration and mining licenses in Southwestern Indian Ridge.


The Directorate of Naval Intelligence (DNI) has warned that this could have critical implications for India as the "Chinese would have reasons to maintain a continuous presence in the region….It would provide them an opportunity to collect oceanographic and hydrological data in a legitimate manner. Further, it would also provide an excuse to operate their warships in this area," according to the DNI.


Comment: The Indian diplomatic and intelligence services failed in this instance. China claims that it is only trying to meet a growing demand for minerals. The Indian Navy is concerned that Chinese naval ships will maintain a continuous watch of India under the guise of protecting ocean bed exploration, as China is doing in the South China Sea. The Indian government are stunned and consider this an intelligence/diplomatic failure.


China's state-run China Ocean Mineral Resources Research and Development had applied for the license in May 2010 to explore for polymetallic sulphides in the Southwest Indian Ridge. It is now required to sign a contract with the ISA, allowing it to explore up to 10,000 sq. km. over the next 15 years in line with the new rules on polymetallic sulphides adopted by the ISA last year.


China, which ratified the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention and is an ISA member, has been active in deep sea exploration since 2002 when it launched a program that included developing an active diving submersible, 'The Jiaolong', designed for a maximum depth of 7,000 meters. The Jiaolong is currently diving at a site between Hawaii and the North America mainland, where China was granted rights to explore for minerals in 2001. It will head for the Indian Ocean before long.
krisna
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5881
Joined: 22 Dec 2008 06:36

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by krisna »

Asian balance of power G Parathasarathy
The wheels of geopolitics have turned full circle over the past three decades. After ‘strategic geniuses:mrgreen: like Mr Kissinger and Mr Zbigniew Brzezinski contributed significantly to China’s ‘rise’ by advocating liberal transfers of investment and technology, the Americans are now finding China increasingly ‘assertive’, with its mercantilist policies designed to corner the world’s natural resources and its propensity to use force to enforce maritime boundary claims with virtually all its neighbours.
Forever apologetic and defensive in dealing with an ‘assertive’ Beijing, South Block has yet to acknowledge that this constitutes a significant change in China’s approach to the issue of Jammu & Kashmir and indeed to the entire border dispute. A similar pusillanimity appears to characterise our response to indications of China giving consideration to projects to divert the water of Brahmaputra, while adopting an approach similar to its policies on the Mekong basin.
Clearly alarmed by China’s growing ‘assertiveness’ on its maritime boundaries with virtually all its neighbours, ranging from Japan, South Korea and Vietnam to the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton joined ASEAN Foreign Ministers at an ARF meeting in Vietnam in July 2010, expressing concern about growing Chinese disinclination to work constructively to resolve differences. American concern was again expressed at a meeting of Defence Ministers of ASEAN and its partners in Hanoi in October 2010.
Vietnam, in turn, is strengthening its defences with the acquisition of six kilo class submarines, SU 30 MK 2 fighter jets and MI 17 helicopters from Russia. Vietnam’s Naval chief and Deputy Defence Minister Vice-Admiral Nguyen Van Hein visited New Delhi on June 27. Prior to his visit, Hanoi had permitted Indian naval ships to berth at Nha Trang Port in southern Vietnam. Vice-Admiral Hein visited Indian naval dockyards in Mumbai and Vishakhapatnam. Maritime cooperation will be a crucial element in India’s defence cooperation with Vietnam. Both countries extensively use equipment of Russian origin.
Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee told Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung on May 8 that India would continue to assist Vietnam in the modernisation of its armed forces, focusing attention primarily on its Air Force and Navy. Mr Mukherjee also spoke of enhanced intelligence cooperation with Vietnam. Unfortunately, given our disgraceful incompetence and inability to utilise opportunities for oil and gas exploration that Vietnam provided to ONGC, India cannot be said to enjoy an image of efficiency in Vietnamese eyes.

Moreover, we need to be far less inhibited in dealing with defence cooperation with Vietnam than our mandarins in the Defence Ministry are generally given to being. If we are really serious about developing Vietnam’s capabilities to defend its maritime boundaries, we should be prepared to transfer potent weapon systems like Brahmos missiles to that country. China has, after all, shown no inhibitions in transferring a range of missile systems to Pakistan. Moreover, we should avoid subjecting Vietnam to the inefficiencies of public sector enterprises like ONGC and NHPC which have under-performed in our eastern neighbourhood.
While seeking to build an architecture for cooperation and security in Asia, no country, least of all India, can or should ignore the importance of Vietnam in building a stable balance of power in the continent.
India has a direct role in maintaining stability in south east asia. china is one island hemmed by small countries allround. It can befriend them- enhance economic and military cooperation. Small countries become bold when backed a big country capable of wileding a danda when it matters. many a time bully like china will back off if countries like vietnam roar ( with assurances from unkil and India).
But for that to happen India should be belligerent in its attitude wrt china.
krisna
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5881
Joined: 22 Dec 2008 06:36

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by krisna »

Beijing's increasing jihadist challenge
Fears are rising in China that the weekend violence in Xinjiang is but the first skirmish in a larger war ahead.
Thirteen months before a missile fired from a Predator drone ended his life, the head of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) videotaped his final testament at his base in Pakistan's troubled North Waziristan.
( yours friendly neighbourhood) :((
My Muslim brothers in East Turkestan,” said Memtimin Memet in a January 2009 address released on jihadist websites linked to al-Qaeda. “We failed to follow the tenets of our faith, and instead supported our enemies — who enforced communism upon us, raped our women, violated the sanctity of our homes, invaded our land, and stole our wealth.” “Preparing to fight these atheist communists,” a narrator continued, “is an obligation upon every Muslim.”
For China, the killings are troubling news. Ever since 9/11, the TIP, like its sister-organisations targeting central Asia, has struggled to survive in the face of relentless assault by the United States and its allies, But, as the U.S. prepares to pull out of Afghanistan, Pakistan has ever-diminishing incentives to continue with its fitful — and destabilising — war against jihadist bases in North Waziristan. Fears are rising in China, as in much of central Asia, that the weekend violence in Xinjiang is but the first skirmish in a larger war ahead.
so unkil leaving af-pak is troubling to dlagon as unkil is footing the bill and bodybags so far.
For centuries a protectorate of distant emperors in Beijing, Xinjiang became part of modern China in 1949 after decades of violent rebellions and wars.
(in effect an occupied terrritory)
Xingjian's Uighur community is estimated to make up eight to 10 million of the region's 21 million population — a population that includes a welter of ethnic groups, including other Chinese Muslims like the Hui, as well as clusters of Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, Uzbeks and Tajiks.
(%age decline as hans have intruded into the area) Advantage is minorities like tibetans and uighurs have no one child policy in effect as compared to chinese hans in the long term)
But the birth of the modern Islamism in Xinjiang, as opposed to the traditionalist-leaning secessionists, was forged in another crucible: the great anti-Soviet Union jihad that tore Afghanistan apart from 1979. Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of Uighurs are reputed to have participated in the jihad, returning home empowered with the belief that a superpower could be successfully defeated through insurgent warfare. In 1993, Hasan Mahsum and Abdukadir Yapuquam, both residents of the town of Hotan, founded the ETIM to spearhead this cause. Both men are known to have met Osama bin Laden; their cadre fought alongside the Taliban.
For three reasons, China's intelligence and security services are taking these threats seriously. First, as an increasingly global actor, China has become evermore vulnerable to transnational terrorism.
Second, ETIM and its affiliates are a regional concern — threatening the arc of States to China's west which are crucial to its energy security. The TIP is known to have worked closely with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which has waged brutal campaigns in the country of its birth, as well as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
(these countries are poor have rebellious peoples, dictattors with violence is common but energy rich. Oil pipelines run thru these countries into china)
Third, there is the obvious: unlike India, China has succeeded in averting large-scale communal strife, using its rapid economic growth to defuse the ethnic-religious tensions which have, inevitably, arisen in times of momentous change. Events like the 2009 riots, though, drove home the point that terrorism posed a real threat to internal peace within China.
(once economic growth slows down internal dissension will take its own dynamics)
In 2009, Pakistani diplomat Masood Khan had gushing words of praise of his country's relationship with Beijing: it was, he said, “higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans, sweeter than honey, stronger than steel, all-weather and time-tested.”
Looks like bakistan is needed more than ever .
As they say every bad ass has at least one good virtue, hope bakis prove it is a badass with one good virtue. :rotfl:
Rony
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3513
Joined: 14 Jul 2006 23:29

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Rony »

The Chinese perspective on Indo-Vietnamese defence ties. Basically the Chinese dont think India has the balls to stand up for Vietnam.We need to change that perception. Giving Brahmos and Prithvi's to our Vietnamese friends may help.


India may disappoint Vietnam on S. China Sea
Media reports said that Vietnam and India recently stepped up efforts to strengthen their naval ties. Vietnam will allow Indian naval warships to drop anchor at its Nha Trang port in southern Vietnam. In addition, India will offer naval facilities for training and capacity-building for Vietnamese forces.

When asked why Vietnam invited the Indian navy to establish a permanent military presence at Na Thrang port in Southern Vietnam, Ye Hailin, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that it is difficult to say whether India will actually send ships to the port.

"I believe that it is another attempt taken by Vietnam to exert pressure on China," Lin said in an interview with China National Radio. "Vietnam hopes to establish military ties with many other countries so that it can counter China in the South China Sea with more confidence," Lin said.

India may not need to send ships to the port to serve its strategic interests, Lin said. India responded favorably to Vietnam's offer because it wants to make other Southeast Asian countries feel that India can play a role in the South China Sea. As a player, it doesn't need to take any specific responsibilities. The step could simply be a mechanism for India to project global sea power.

But India has also made clear that it is not realistic for it to act as a global naval power in its present financial position, Lin said. Projecting global sea power requires a global military presence, which India currently does not have, Lin said.

To India, the Indian Ocean and the waters from the Arabian Sea to Hormuz Strait are more important, Lin added. India is neither willing to nor has the ability to extend to the South China Sea and build a military presence there.

No matter how many countries Vietnam chooses to ally with, it cannot change a basic fact: its military force still lags far behind China's, Lin said.

If Vietnam chooses to resolve the South China Sea disputes by force, Lin continued, its allies would not be able to protect it. India likely formed its alliance on the understanding that China and Vietnam will not likely enter into large-scale armed conflict. But if Vietnam were to go too far and engage China militarily, India would likely be the first to leave, Lin said.

Vietnam's military alliance strategy is only an attempt to put pressure on China, Lin said.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60291
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ramana »

And basing Arihant in Cam Ranh Bay. Its the PRC on the other hand that will chose to resolve the SCS disputes by force.
UBanerjee
BRFite
Posts: 537
Joined: 20 Mar 2011 01:41
Location: Washington DC

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by UBanerjee »

In 2009, Pakistani diplomat Masood Khan had gushing words of praise of his country's relationship with Beijing: it was, he said, “higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans, sweeter than honey, stronger than steel, all-weather and time-tested.”
:lol:

Never change, pakis.
Airavat
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2326
Joined: 29 Jul 2003 11:31
Location: dishum-bishum
Contact:

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Airavat »

Uighur rising is "cultural", Sino-Pak relations set to go even deeper :mrgreen:
ambitious Chinese plans to accelerate the development of Xinjiang is making the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) desperate. The ETIM has projected this project as a sinister plot to destroy the Uighur history and culture. Pakistan and China need to see an early end of subversion in Xinjiang because their future plans to deepen their strategic partnership depend in no small a measure on this western Chinese province. Precisely for the same reason, enemies of this strategic relationship have in recent years stepped up efforts to project occasional unrest in it as a Sino-Pakistan issue.

Based on the confession made by one solitary suspect, the local authorities of Kashgar stated publicly that the miscreants had received training in a camp in Pakistan. The best response to the postcard from Kashgar is to intensify efforts to prevent a sabotage of Pakistan’s most vital relationship. In the intelligence community, the China file should always be with the top leaders. There are sporadic attempts by some pundits of our TV talk shows to belittle Chinese assistance to Pakistan over the decades.

The writer, a former foreign secretary, was also Pakistan’s ambassador to several countries.
Jarita
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2654
Joined: 30 Oct 2009 22:27
Location: Andromeda

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by Jarita »

It's not balls but the story is that they have their "lobbyists" in very very high places in Indian establishment who will ensure that decisions are made in favour of China
Rony wrote:The Chinese perspective on Indo-Vietnamese defence ties. Basically the Chinese dont think India has the balls to stand up for Vietnam.We need to change that perception. Giving Brahmos and Prithvi's to our Vietnamese friends may help.


India may disappoint Vietnam on S. China Sea
Media reports said that Vietnam and India recently stepped up efforts to strengthen their naval ties. Vietnam will allow Indian naval warships to drop anchor at its Nha Trang port in southern Vietnam. In addition, India will offer naval facilities for training and capacity-building for Vietnamese forces.

When asked why Vietnam invited the Indian navy to establish a permanent military presence at Na Thrang port in Southern Vietnam, Ye Hailin, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that it is difficult to say whether India will actually send ships to the port.

"I believe that it is another attempt taken by Vietnam to exert pressure on China," Lin said in an interview with China National Radio. "Vietnam hopes to establish military ties with many other countries so that it can counter China in the South China Sea with more confidence," Lin said.

India may not need to send ships to the port to serve its strategic interests, Lin said. India responded favorably to Vietnam's offer because it wants to make other Southeast Asian countries feel that India can play a role in the South China Sea. As a player, it doesn't need to take any specific responsibilities. The step could simply be a mechanism for India to project global sea power.

But India has also made clear that it is not realistic for it to act as a global naval power in its present financial position, Lin said. Projecting global sea power requires a global military presence, which India currently does not have, Lin said.

To India, the Indian Ocean and the waters from the Arabian Sea to Hormuz Strait are more important, Lin added. India is neither willing to nor has the ability to extend to the South China Sea and build a military presence there.

No matter how many countries Vietnam chooses to ally with, it cannot change a basic fact: its military force still lags far behind China's, Lin said.

If Vietnam chooses to resolve the South China Sea disputes by force, Lin continued, its allies would not be able to protect it. India likely formed its alliance on the understanding that China and Vietnam will not likely enter into large-scale armed conflict. But if Vietnam were to go too far and engage China militarily, India would likely be the first to leave, Lin said.

Vietnam's military alliance strategy is only an attempt to put pressure on China, Lin said.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by RajeshA »

Sino-Pak Alliance & PLA Presence along LoC and Indo-Pak Border

Originally posted and commented by SSridhar
Published on Aug 10, 2011
By Vimal Bhatia
China-Pakistan war games along Rajasthan border: Times of India
Pakistan and China have launched joint war games barely 25 km from the international border along Jaisalmer-Bikaner districts of Rajasthan.

The brigade-level military exercise by the People's Liberation Army's 101 Engineering regiment began last week and will continue for one month. {Doesn't it look too long ? Will the Chinese go back or stay put ?} Independent sources said this was the first time that Chinese troops were detected along India's western border.

According to information from intelligence sources, China is extending all possible help to Pakistan militarily. After assisting in oil and gas exploration in Pakistan, China is now working in close cooperation with it in India's western sector, providing Pakistan with tank upgrade technology and unmanned air vehicles (UAVs).

Officials contacted at the Army headquarters in New Delhi said they had "no specific information" about such an exercise. Another official said Pakistan Rangers conduct annual exercises but there was no information about the ongoing operations.

An intelligence source said the PLA's engineering battalion along with Pakistani soldiers are on an exercise on how to take out tanks and other heavy military vehicles from marshy areas, and how to make way for the infantry by constructing bridges.

The places where these operations are on are Suryaan and Chor, near Sem Nala in Rahimiyaar Khan in Pakistan, adjoining Tanot-Kishangarh area along Jaisalmer. There is an entire brigade of China for the military exercise there.

The source also said that the Chinese battalion along with Pakistan forces are practicing formations and operations along Bikaner district of Rajasthan. One officer, who refused to indentify himself since he is not authorized to speak, said the Chinese army along India's western border in Pakistan in the name of military exercise is "really surprising, and could prove strategically dangerous for India".

"China under the garb of military exercise has reached India's western border. This can't but be a matter of concern for us," he said.
X-Posting from TSP Thread
SSridhar wrote:The presence of the PLA in Pakistan along the Rajasthan border, along with their presence in Balawaristan and along the LoC already, shows that while we are engaged in the American-TSP relationship, the Chinese are beginning to creep into Pakistan along the entire India-Pakistan border. PA has abdicated to PLA, it seems now. PLA wants to surround India on the west and the East even while mounting diplomatic pressure on us in various ways and widening the trade with us. Along with that report also comes the news of the ISI activating terror training camps in PoK with about 2500 terrorists as our Dy. Home Minister has said in Parliament. Pakistan believes that PLA would be the effective deterrent, not the Nasr, against Cold Start. The advice Gilani gave Karzai of moving over to RMB rather than Dollar-denominated trade also needs to be remembered. It shows that Pakistani strategy, in collaboration with PRC, is to break away from the US as soon as practically feasible. If Taliban eventually take over power in Afghanistan, which looks certain to me now (only a matter of time), then the Americans will be driven out of Afghanistan without being able to exert any influence anymore. A vast stretch from Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan will come under Chinese influence encircling India even more. It will also deprive India of natural resources especially from CAR countries.
X-Posting from TSP Thread
SSridhar wrote:I see several possibilities here in the increasing presence of PLA in Pakistan.
  • Certainly, TSP is worried about their crown jewels being made ineffective through the Yahud-Hanud-Nasara conspiracy. They want to preempt the possibility by involving the PLA on a largescale. To me, this does not appear to be a major reason as the reports indicate of growing PLA presence only along the Indian border.
  • It therefore appears to me be an attempt to stall 'Cold Start'. They know that in spite of touting so much about 'Nasr', it was not going to cut much ice with the IA. And, TSP is mortally worried about Cold Start. TSPA head honchos also know that they are no longer completely in control of the monster they created and cannot guarantee that a terror attack on India will not take place unless they themselves authorize it. They may therefore be caught napping if India launches Cold Start. OTOH, presence of PLA may deter any launch of operations across the border even if there is a terror strike. PLA's presence also emboldens the PA/ISI to conduct an authorized massive terror strike too that could be several times devastating than 26/11. They might misread the the Indian political situation like they did in 1965.
  • PRC also might want to hedge India from all directions and Pakistan's acquiescence comes handy. Ms. Clinton's speech in Chennai two weeks back exhorting India to assume leadership role in maritime affairs in Malaca Straits, South China Sea and upto the Pacific is an indication of the talks possibly going on between the two countries. India seems yet undecided on such a role but PRC may want to preempt that by sending India a signal with its fine-tuned aggressive posture along LAC and now along the India-Pakistan border.
shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7100
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by shyamd »

Makes you wonder why ISI wanted to conduct strike in Xinjiang... Makes sense now. PLA asking for bases in FATA or NWFP. US better get its act together
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60291
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ramana »

Where is Gagan? Can someone google map the areas of deplyment noted above?
An intelligence source said the PLA's engineering battalion along with Pakistani soldiers are on an exercise on how to take out tanks and other heavy military vehicles from marshy areas, and how to make way for the infantry by constructing bridges.

The places where these operations are on are Suryaan and Chor, near Sem Nala in Rahimiyaar Khan in Pakistan, adjoining Tanot-Kishangarh area along Jaisalmer. There is an entire brigade of China for the military exercise there.

The source also said that the Chinese battalion along with Pakistan forces are practicing formations and operations along Bikaner district of Rajasthan.

And put them in one thread not necessarily here.

Also wont marshy areas be impediments to IA dash to Indus? So whats the gameplan here?

Are these part of Zarb-e-Maomeen for IA's thanda estart?
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60291
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat

Post by ramana »

X-post...
From Nightwatch 9 Aug 2011
Vietnam-India: Comment: In late June, Vietnamese and Indian naval senior officers met to discuss maritime security in the South China Sea. During the visit Vietnamese Vice Admiral Hien offered Indian Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Verma, base rights to the port of Nha Trang. Verma accepted in principle.

The terms of the offer have not been reported in detail, but one news service reported the Indians counter-offered the new Brahmos supersonic anti-ship missile to the Vietnamese navy; the Prithvi short-range ballistic missile which can also be used on ships; plus maintenance support to Vietnam's Soviet-supplied naval ships. India already is providing training to the Vietnamese navy.


Subsequently, the INS Airavat, an amphibious landing ship built in Calcutta, made a port call at Nha Trang between 20 and 30 July. In October 2010, Vietnam offered the Indians access to maintenance and repair facilities and invited more port calls. In 2011, Indian Navy ships have made calls at South Chinese Sea ports and Japan almost monthly since March.


For the record. Nha Trang was the base from which a Vietnamese Supreme Commander led a fleet that defeated a Chinese Yuan dynasty fleet in 1288.


Vietnam's offer appears tailored to appeal to the new Indian Naval mantra:


China rejects that the Indian Ocean is Indian. India rejects that the South China Sea is Chinese.


The Indian Chief of Naval Staff's acceptance of the Vietnamese offer sent Chinese national security pundits into spasms of dismissal. One expert wrote that India will never base ships at Nha Trang because it would be too expensive and India lacks the ability to extend naval power east. The Chinese national security expert accused India and Vietnam of bluffing. :((

India: Navy. The Calcutta Telegraph reported on 8 August that the government has asked all ports in the east coast, except Visakhapatnam, to give priority to the Indian Navy because a sharp rise in the number of warships is leading to congestion and slowing down operational turnaround. Visakhapatnam is the main base for the Eastern Naval Command.

Comment: According to the Telegraph report the government has decided to strengthen the Eastern Naval Command in reaction to Chinese meddling in the Indian Ocean, including port construction in Burma and in southern Sri Lanka.


As a result the Navy has raised the rank of senior positions in the east and increased its priority for new ship assignments. In the past 5 years the Command has received 14 ships, including five Rajput-class guided missile destroyers that had been assigned to the Western Naval Command at Mumbai. The new additions include the amphibious assault ship, INS Jalashwa, purchased from the US Navy, which is the second largest ship in the Indian Navy, after the aircraft carrier INS Viraat.

India's new indigenously constructed stealth frigates, under construction at Mumbai, will be assigned to the Eastern Naval command. The Navy is scouting at least three new locations for bases in India and seems to welcome the Vietnamese offer of port facilities.

The Indian Navy is unlikely to base ships in Vietnam, but access to a friendly port will increase the frequency of port calls to the South China Sea as well as to Japan and South Korea. India is determined to contain the Chinese in South Asian oceans and and is taking the challenge to East and Southeast Asian seas. Indian Navy ships will be frequent callers in Vietnamese ports.
Sandy Gordon in his book "India a rising power" says that IN planes (TU-124s) routinely patrol South China Sea from INS Rajali in Chennai since mid 80s.
Post Reply