AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

[Shanmukh]

Does it mean allow mafia a&b teams towing AP? Yaddi did the same to bjp. Is he not being brought inside NDA. this elections are being fought at make and brake point in National history and every one who is against mafia should be brought inside if possible.

Defeating mafia in AP will spill it's doom. CBN can provided support here as bjp can not do this alone. There is no one one to get support.

Narayana Rao-ji,
Yeddy is a very different kettle of fish. He is going to be part of the NDA alliance (either by re-entering the BJP or by way of alliance). The sticking point with Yeddy is that he is demanding the leader of the opposition post in lieu of his return to the BJP. But both Yeddy and Sreeramulu are in a weaker position today, than they were before the Karnataka elections. I imagine that both Sreeramulu and Yeddy are going to return to the BJP (one way or the other) before Modi's rally in the middle of November.

But CBN - they feel that he took advantage of the NDA to lure powerful BJP leaders to his side (like Mudragada Padmanabham). Some people (not sure who) are selling the idea that if the BJP allies with TDP, they will be wiped out in the state as happened in the aftermath of 1999. They want to wait and see what happens to AP before making any decisions. They believe that if Telangana is formed, the TDP in Telangana will split (after all, CBN has been fasting against dividing AP). They want to grab this part of TDP, which they think cannot be done if they commit to an alliance with TDP.

I also asked them what offer they have got from people like Rayapati Sambashiva Rao. The people are hesitant to speak of it (I got the feeling that the negotiations are delicate and they don't want to say anything to anyone until it is all wrapped up), but told me that they are still negotiating with the rebellious Congressmen. They did say this - if the decision is taken to oppose Telangana, then it will have to be worth the risks they will take in opposing Telangana. I get the feeling that unless Rayapati can show that he will being over a considerable part of the MPs/MLAs to the BJP side in SeemaAndhra, the BJP will not bite the bait.

[Muppalla]

But CBN - they feel that he took advantage of the NDA to lure powerful BJP leaders to his side (like Mudragada Padmanabham).

This fellow jumped INC, TDP, BJP, INC, TDP once in every year. Now he is no where. They have woefully too many complaints while they did a zlitch other than trying to piggy back on KCR and Kandandaram before they a big bamboo stick was stuck in theirs @#$%^^.

But you second part of the post makes sense. If T is really formed then they poach the entire T-TDP as BJP. Going for a coalition may help TDP because that opportunity can be missed. Waiting until last day is important.

On the Seemandhra side it will be a while before folks jumping to BJP happens. There is a need to put proper leaders in charge to achieve. The current AP-BJP leaders are simple not capable of doing such a palace coups.

[ShyamSP]

But CBN - they feel that he took advantage of the NDA to lure powerful BJP leaders to his side (like Mudragada Padmanabham). Some people (not sure who) are selling the idea that if the BJP allies with TDP, they will be wiped out in the state as happened in the aftermath of 1999. They want to wait and see what happens to AP before making any decisions. They believe that if Telangana is formed, the TDP in Telangana will split (after all, CBN has been fasting against dividing AP). They want to grab this part of TDP, which they think cannot be done if they commit to an alliance with TDP.

I also asked them what offer they have got from people like Rayapati Sambashiva Rao. The people are hesitant to speak of it (I got the feeling that the negotiations are delicate and they don't want to say anything to anyone until it is all wrapped up), but told me that they are still negotiating with the rebellious Congressmen. They did say this - if the decision is taken to oppose Telangana, then it will have to be worth the risks they will take in opposing Telangana. I get the feeling that unless Rayapati can show that he will being over a considerable part of the MPs/MLAs to the BJP side in SeemaAndhra, the BJP will not bite the bait.

TDP provided stable support with ~30 MPs and they were giving outside support also. TDP government got reciprocal advantage. Nothing more. If BJP people are deluding themselves more than that, their thinking was not right and are sure to lose in 2014. What BJP got in the past was TDP votebank not the other way around. Only votebank BJP got was in the areas where they are Hindu-Muslim issues. Now they are thinking Telangana is going to fetch them votes. They are never for AP interests so they will never get AP unless they get their hands dirty and play AP politics. They may be good for Northern states but not for AP.

Even on Telangana, they played with white gloves only. Even after Telangana, they are not going to get more than their votebank areas as they are not interested in playing for peoples' interests. TDP has its own loyal base, BJP is unlikely to poach them as they don't serve the votebank interests. AP money bags will ensure they remain pygmies as BJP worked against AP money interests with respect to T-issue.

Also remember CBN was instrumental of third-front politics since late 1980s. If BJP thinks of back-stabbing TDP, AP interests will ensure BJP doesn't come on National stage also until unless BJP gets its own majority which is less likely for a decade or more.

[devesh]

AP money bags will ensure they remain pygmies as BJP worked against AP money interests with respect to T-issue.

so "telugu variki telugu rashtram" comes down to "AP money interests" and "AP money bags"!

[devesh]

nageshks ji,

the BJP-TDP merry swing was damaged by the TDP's own uppity behavior post-2004. especially, CBN seemed to have some sort of khujli with even appearing as BJP-friendly.

he will pay the price dearly. he will not become CM again. take that for granted. whether TDP will re-emerge is still an open-ended question, with 50-50 chances. for CBN, it's game over. he will not be warming the CM's chair ever again.

also, ironically, it is due to INC's machinations that CBN and TDP are in this soup. yet, there are many misguided SA folks who want to vent their frustration on BJP. INC will be back in some shape. whether directly, or through Jagan, is to be seen.

[devesh]

Also remember CBN was instrumental of third-front politics since late 1980s. If BJP thinks of back-stabbing TDP, AP interests will ensure BJP doesn't come on National stage also until unless BJP gets its own majority which is less likely for a decade or more.

it was actually the patriarch who was instrumental in the third front movement. CBN has failed in all attempts at similar moves.

good, the AP money should definitely come together and paint a nice, big target on their backs, saying, "look, we are the ones with all the money to make or break national coalitions. aren't we cute?"

it's very fortunate for the AP money interests that they are no where near that stupid. it remains to be seen what course AP will take after bifurcation. the sweet fantasies of vengeance and revenge are just that.

and if they do go ahead and decide to take vengeance, it will be fini for them. our brothers further South are just waiting for such an opportunity.

what you are describing is suicide option. nothing wrong with it. but suicide is, after all, still suicide.

[ShyamSP]

^^^

BJP does stupid things they are great. If others don't support it, you're saying they are taking vengence, suicide, damaging, etc.

With <5 % votebank in Telangana, T-BJP leaders can live in well and strategize. People outside the well do what they have to do.

Come to elections, if there are no MIM (their alter-ego) issues, they will shoot themselves in the foot anyway.

[devesh]

All verbal gymnastics aside, we have see some evidence previously that there are prominent AP coastal businessmen who seem to have the ear of Modi. it would be interesting to see their voices raise a little bit right now. that might give a better indication of what BJP itself is thinking.

but, BJP is an organization which has its own internal compass rooted in RSS. RSS remains ambivalent on the issue of bifurcation. they have neither side for it, nor against it. and have chosen to keep themselves aloof from that decision. a good move. tactically, a sound choice. this also means that they are not blind to the fact that the T-feudals are re-imagining their past glories getting resurrected. they are also not blind to the fact that the backers of TDP have so far remained a shaky bunch when it comes to sticking to BJP and BJP's ideology. RSS understands that the past alliance with TDP is one of convenience more than anything. they have also spent some time understanding the in's and out's of AP politics. they understand also that in AP, the INC vs TDP fight is essentially a caste rivalry under the mask of democratic politics.

one of the reasons why BJP has so far had no presence in AP is b/c there is a deep hesitance within the root organization of the Sangh, the RSS, about turning BJP into a front for caste rivalry. RSS's assessment about AP is that the only way BJP can become a party of strength is by adopting either the cause of the Reddys or that of the Kammas. they are hesitant to do either. they want a base of ideology where multiple castes can have leadership of the party.

we can perhaps see now, why, the lack of an ideology is such a great strength for elites. they can cast and recast their own rivalries as any number of things, but ultimately, they themselves don't stand for anything other than their own ambitions.

I want to envision an AP where voting for one party doesn't automatically make you a rival of an entire "caste". neither INC, nor TDP can give this future.

[devesh]

duplicate--

[ShyamSP]

All verbal gymnastics aside, we have see some evidence previously that there are prominent AP coastal businessmen who seem to have the ear of Modi. it would be interesting to see their voices raise a little bit right now. that might give a better indication of what BJP itself is thinking.

but, BJP is an organization which has its own internal compass rooted in RSS. RSS remains ambivalent on the issue of bifurcation. they have neither side for it, nor against it. and have chosen to keep themselves aloof from that decision. a good move. tactically, a sound choice. this also means that they are not blind to the fact that the T-feudals are re-imagining their past glories getting resurrected. they are also not blind to the fact that the backers of TDP have so far remained a shaky bunch when it comes to sticking to BJP and BJP's ideology. RSS understands that the past alliance with TDP is one of convenience more than anything. they have also spent some time understanding the in's and out's of AP politics. they understand also that in AP, the INC vs TDP fight is essentially a caste rivalry under the mask of democratic politics.

one of the reasons why BJP has so far had no presence in AP is b/c there is a deep hesitance within the root organization of the Sangh, the RSS, about turning BJP into a front for caste rivalry. RSS's assessment about AP is that the only way BJP can become a party of strength is by adopting either the cause of the Reddys or that of the Kammas. they are hesitant to do either. they want a base of ideology where multiple castes can have leadership of the party.

we can perhaps see now, why, the lack of an ideology is such a great strength for elites. they can cast and recast their own rivalries as any number of things, but ultimately, they themselves don't stand for anything other than their own ambitions.

I want to envision an AP where voting for one party doesn't automatically make you a rival of an entire "caste". neither INC, nor TDP can give this future.

Again it is lack of understanding that INC and TDP represent only "caste" politics where as all castes are represented in both parties. No wonder 5% BJP'ers can't get more %.

If BJP had been stuck to its Nationalistic outlook and remained neutral to both sides, it would have achieved some thing in AP. Instead they were playing along TRS and MIM thuggery, they remain at 5% in T. When they are not with TRS, they whine on TDP. At best BJP is nuisance in AP.

[devesh]

no, not really. the "others" simply go along with one of the two. it could be a perception of rivalries. or it could be a perception of incentives. whatever the reason, that's how the others swing. even the Kapus basically swing either INC or TDP based on which one happens to be hurting them (perceived or real) at that time, and vote the other way.

basically, this swing vote puts either INC or TDP on top. but ultimately, the "swingers" don't decide who gets to set the real agenda.

I'm telling you and everybody else, that eventually this will explode in our faces. it will not work for much longer. it worked fine for a while. but it becomes patently obvious to the up and coming generations that political power depends on which family you are born in.

the "AP money bags" you refer to, if they have even an ounce of self preservation, then they will foresee this long before it becomes manifest overtly.

[Muppalla]

AP money bags will ensure they remain pygmies as BJP worked against AP money interests with respect to T-issue.

so "telugu variki telugu rashtram" comes down to "AP money interests" and "AP money bags"!

So how are they related. If a Gujarati is proud of Gujarat or Gujarati culture/language, he should not worry about his wealth? It is implied that if someone says there should be telugu state or telugu pride they should sacrifice the wealth and wealth related interests. They have to give away lands like some Soviet Union style.

As long as BJP does not work in the local ways of the state politics it will not grow. For the same reasons it did not grow in the Telangana. The RSS, Hindutva or some ideology is not the reason for that 5% votes. It is a hindu takleef against muslim relics/dominance in Nizam that gives it the pockets of influence. Nothing is positive so far.

[devesh]

http://newindianexpress.com/states/andh ... 867294.ece

All-party meet only to corner TDP: Chandrababu Naidu

The Telugu Desam party (TDP)’s reaction was guarded to the Centre’s proposal to convene an all-party meeting on state bifurcation.

TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu, who is touring flood-affected parts of Krishna district, said on Thursday: “I have made it clear that Telugu Desam will take a decision on the Union home ministry’s move to conduct all-party meet only after going through the invitation letter.”

Naidu felt there is no clarity on why the Centre has called the meet. “I will decide on sending a representative to the meet after discussing the matter with my party leaders,” he said.

TDP leaders believe the Centre is holding the meeting only to push their party into an embarrassing situation since it has interests both in Telangana and Andhra regions.

Niadu, addressing a news conference in Vijayawada, said his party would take decisions at an appropriate time since the Congress is not being fair. The Congress has been trying to corner the TDP, he said. “We have been demanding that justice should be done to the people of not only Seemandhra but also Telangana.”

In fact, Naidu had demanded that the Centre should convene an all-party meeting and listen to the opinions of all the parties afresh before going ahead with its decision to divide the state. Now, he appeared perplexed that the Centre is doing exactly that. Naidu earlier wanted the Centre to call stakeholders in Seemandhra--members of the joint action committee--for talks. Later, he said it would be better if the Centre called an all-party meeting. Naidu also wanted to know why the Union government after commissioning Justice BN Srikrishna Committee did not care to table the report for discussion in Parliament.

He also wanted to know what AK Anotny Committee had done after Seemandhra leaders opposed the Centre’s move for bifurcation.

not connected to the above, but there was some speculation that CBN might be running from Khammam. any further rumors or development on that front?

[Muppalla]

not connected to the above, but there was some speculation that CBN might be running from Khammam. any further rumors or development on that front?

Not a single thing that we discussed over several pages is final. Parties and individuals are engaged in running psy-ops. The finality is all dependent on how congress finalizes its strategy.

[devesh]

^^^
Oh, I know. even Telangana itself is not final. until I see bill in Parliament, this whole thing could just be a drama.

if it is a drama. and nothing is done. and situation goes back to normal, what is the status of AP politics, then?

we have 3 fronts already: INC, TDP, Jagan. will KCR give up demand for T, but remain as a regional party, like JMM? or will he simply merge into INC.

I think we should also try to game that scenario, if it comes to it. until bill is tabled in Parliament, nothing is sure.

[Muppalla]

one of the reasons why BJP has so far had no presence in AP is b/c there is a deep hesitance within the root organization of the Sangh, the RSS, about turning BJP into a front for caste rivalry. RSS's assessment about AP is that the only way BJP can become a party of strength is by adopting either the cause of the Reddys or that of the Kammas. they are hesitant to do either. they want a base of ideology where multiple castes can have leadership of the party.

Why AP is so special? BJP is purely a forward caste party in Bihar, Lingayat party in KA and it is in similar fashion everywhere. Why it can't play same here? Is it a state descended from heaven?

[devesh]

one of the reasons why BJP has so far had no presence in AP is b/c there is a deep hesitance within the root organization of the Sangh, the RSS, about turning BJP into a front for caste rivalry. RSS's assessment about AP is that the only way BJP can become a party of strength is by adopting either the cause of the Reddys or that of the Kammas. they are hesitant to do either. they want a base of ideology where multiple castes can have leadership of the party.

Why AP is so special? BJP is purely a forward caste party in Bihar, Lingayat party in KA and it is in similar fashion everywhere. Why it can't play same here? Is it a state descended from heaven?

are you sure it's a purely FC party in Bihar? is it for lack of trying? and are you also sure that Bihar is the same as the R vs K rivalry in AP? I don't know but I get the feeling that the rivalry in AP is much visceral, in the sense that it's been going on since 1000 years. the equation in Bihar, is something that is a result of skewed development after Islamics took over. in AP's case, it is rivalry that has nothing to do with foreign ideologies.

actually, situation in Bihar and KT is different because in those 2 states, the base which subscribed to BJP's ideology decided to join with BJP. not the other way around. something similar needs to happen in AP. ideally, a combination from both R's and K's should shift to BJP. but if that doesn't happen, second best scenario is for some group to move towards BJP because they believe in BJP's ideology. not because BJP promised to make them kings of the region.

[Shanmukh]

Why AP is so special? BJP is purely a forward caste party in Bihar, Lingayat party in KA and it is in similar fashion everywhere. Why it can't play same here? Is it a state descended from heaven?

Erm - no. I don't know about the BJP in Bihar, but in Karnataka, the BJP is far far more than a Lingayat party. In fact, with the exit of Yeddy, it is far less of a Lingayat party today. It was never a Lingayat party, for that matter. An alliance of convenience between the powerful Veerashaiva mathas and BJP was engineered by Yeddy, but that is more or less over. If anything, the BJP gets more BC votes than Brahmin or Lingayat votes. The BJP has strongmen of every caste and community (except perhaps Muslims) in Karnataka.

[devesh]

bottomline: BJP cannot take up with any of the powerful groups in AP by promising to make them the new Subahdar. BJP cannot survive that way. INC can. and regional outfits can survive with that tactic. But BJP needs real belief to some extent.

[ShyamSP]

bottomline: BJP cannot take up with any of the powerful groups in AP by promising to make them the new Subahdar. BJP cannot survive that way. INC can. and regional outfits can survive with that tactic. But BJP needs real belief to some extent.

But in AP, they've shown themselves as thugs and divisive and narrow-minded. Now they carry sin and live in the level of TRS. No one in AP thinks they are above INC, TDP, other parties to consider them.

Until they put "sin" pot down and become neutral party, there is no hope.

[Yagnasri]

That is not going to happen. Modi might have tried, others don't want to win entire AP for NDA. They are basically do not understand that it is also required to defeat mafia. If bjp at 180 plus and mafia at 150 then mafia can ensure bjp is out of power. Need is to pull mafia below 100 and for that they have defeat it a&b teams in AP.

[Muppalla]

But in Karnataka, the BJP is far far more than a Lingayat party. In fact, with the exit of Yeddy, it is far less of a Lingayat party today. It was never a Lingayat party, for that matter. An alliance of convenience between the powerful Veerashaiva mathas and BJP was engineered by Yeddy, but that is more or less over. If anything, the BJP gets more BC votes than Brahmin or Lingayat votes. The BJP has strongmen of every caste and community (except perhaps Muslims) in Karnataka.

How may seats it got because of all that great more votes after Reddys and Yeddi exit? 50 seats? And then has to fight for leader of opposition with JDS. It fought to be relevant in the just concluded elections. That means it just did not work and if we cannot agree to the fact that irrespective of its goals and ideals, it has to play with the rules of the playground. Otherwise it is simply the 2-seat 1984 syndrome.

[Shanmukh]

But in Karnataka, the BJP is far far more than a Lingayat party. In fact, with the exit of Yeddy, it is far less of a Lingayat party today. It was never a Lingayat party, for that matter. An alliance of convenience between the powerful Veerashaiva mathas and BJP was engineered by Yeddy, but that is more or less over. If anything, the BJP gets more BC votes than Brahmin or Lingayat votes. The BJP has strongmen of every caste and community (except perhaps Muslims) in Karnataka.

How may seats it got because of all that great more votes after Reddys and Yeddi exit? 50 seats? And then has to fight for leader of opposition with JDS. It fought to be relevant in the just concluded elections. That means it just did not work and if we cannot agree to the fact that irrespective of its goals and ideals, it has to play with the rules of the playground. Otherwise it is simply the 2-seat 1984 syndrome.

Saar - let me give you a little snippet from history. In 1994, the Congress, hit by the rebellion of Bangarappa, was reduced to third spot in the elections. Bangarappa did exactly the same thing to the Congress that Yeddy has done to the BJP today (then, it was interpreted as the revolt of the backward classes against the Congress, today it is interpreted as Lingayat anger against BJP). However, both Bangarappa and Yeddy are flashes in the pan. Bangarappa could not sustain his rebellion, and Yeddy will not be able to either. I give Yeddy three years before he either rejoins one of the other major parties, or becomes irrelevant.

The BJP has an excellent cadre, and a very solid party apparatus, and leaders from all communities. Give it a couple of years, and the BJP will be back to its old strength, in most of the areas, if it plays its cards right. What they need is to elect a clean leader in Karnataka, and then rally around him.

[Muppalla]

are you sure it's a purely FC party in Bihar? is it for lack of trying?

I am sure. It is now trying to build a coalition of some OBCs and FCs. Modi is a great help. Remember his speeches before Jhansi and Jhansi and after. He is very careful but he subtly bring his backward class and tea stall stuff (not backward caste) when talking in UP and Bihar. He is realist as opposed to the stalwarts of BJP in AP.

and are you also sure that Bihar is the same as the R vs K rivalry in AP? I don't know but I get the feeling that the rivalry in AP is much visceral, in the sense that it's been going on since 1000 years. the equation in Bihar, is something that is a result of skewed development after Islamics took over. in AP's case, it is rivalry that has nothing to do with foreign ideologies.

there is an saying in Telugu - doorapu kondalu nunupu means if you see the hills from far they look smooth but if you go there then you will see how rocky the hills are or how deep the forests on the hills are. There are always rivals in the forward castes where ever you go. This caste based competition and fight of resources and usage of caste and community pride to capture power is all over India except in perhaps the pure periphery of India.

actually, situation in Bihar and KT is different because in those 2 states, the base which subscribed to BJP's ideology decided to join with BJP. not the other way around. something similar needs to happen in AP. ideally, a combination from both R's and K's should shift to BJP. but if that doesn't happen, second best scenario is for some group to move towards BJP because they believe in BJP's ideology. not
because BJP promised to make them kings of the region.

Nothing ever happened like that. The party has picked up the best suitable ground realities in those states it grew and in the midst of growth it implemented its ideology. Not the otherway round that you are thinking. In AP it is a delusion of thinking the other way round. The ground realities of Karnataka and AP are absolutely no different to grow but the path chosen in AP is not the same as what it has chosen in KA.

You are trying to build a case where you are blaming the Kammas, Reddys, or Velamas as some real villians with no ideological instincts other than money making. I disagree on that. It is the BJP that has to explore the instincts while allowing them to do what they like to do and that is wealth manufacturing. This whole anti-wealth is waste topic and no where in the world it has won a kingdom or an election in several 1000s of years. It was never even helpful even as a strawman. I will bet that it can be a strife for a while but in the end it will fail in AP. The moneybags will win in oneway or other. Remember this has nothing to do with bifurcation. Even after bifurcation when it happens the game will be same. What different that this topic to that of Naxals? It is just that they are violent and want to implement. Why should there be hatred to wealth?

[Muppalla]

The BJP has an excellent cadre, and a very solid party apparatus, and leaders from all communities. Give it a couple of years, and the BJP will be back to its old strength, in most of the areas, if it plays its cards right. What they need is to elect a
clean leader in Karnataka, and then rally around him.

I really hope so. What are its cards? Can it avoid the Lngayats Vs Vokkaliggas completely? It did have an excellent cadre in UP too. After the exit of Kalyan Singh, it is still not in power and that is the bottomline. It competed for third position with Congress during the last year assembly elections.

Cleaner person is a very good thing but that does not mean leave the ground realities to wind and think that some ideology will just work on its own. Ideology is just a catalyst but not the reason for political victories. Go 10,000 years before of just 100 years before anywhere in the world and that is the fact.

[devesh]

that anecdote about Krishna (the actor) wanting to make a movie on Shivaji is very interesting.

my mother still says this sometimes: INC (in AP), regardless of national secular pretenses, used to be a genuinely Hindu party, in the sense that it did represent the mandate of a Hindus without going above and beyond when it comes to minority appeasement.

for people in the 50+ age group (in AP), I think they still associate the modern INC with the INC of yore. this is why, all the talk of EJ's,etc is anathema to them. their reactions are as if I'm speaking latin.

[Shanmukh]

The BJP has an excellent cadre, and a very solid party apparatus, and leaders from all communities. Give it a couple of years, and the BJP will be back to its old strength, in most of the areas, if it plays its cards right. What they need is to elect a
clean leader in Karnataka, and then rally around him.

I really hope so. What are its cards? Can it avoid the Lngayats Vs Vokkaliggas completely? It did have an excellent cadre in UP too. After the exit of Kalyan Singh, it is still not in power and that is the bottomline. It competed for third position with Congress during the last year assembly elections.

You are overlooking two major things in your analysis. First, inter caste rivalries in Karnataka are nowhere as nearly as sharp as in UP. The Congress has leaders from all communities and it keeps winning because of that reason. The Congress never turns on the Vokkaliga vs Lingayat, at least in public. There will always be backroom manoeuvrings, but a public spat between Vokkaligas and Lingayats is pretty rare. Every government in Karnataka has accommodated the two communities, reasonably amicably (right from the Nijalingappa times).

The BJP had annoyed everyone with its internecine warfare. In fact, when Yeddy refused to resign as CM, he should have been summarily expelled. That would have greatly lessened the damage to the BJP. The middle class (which cares less about caste, and more about development and policies) that generally votes BJP was nauseated by the daily infighting in the BJP. Their anger lost the BJP a lot of votes. The BJP was seen as a dissonant, divided house.

Secondly, in their internecine warfare, the BJP neglected development. A spate of corruption scandals against the BJP ministers lost it the people's confidence. The people who generally vote the BJP are not the same people who vote the Congress. The middle class, which is the BJP's main base, demands a much higher standard from the BJP, than the Congress voters do from the Congress. Some of the people on the board term it `the cleanest saffron syndrome', but the truth is, IMO, much simpler. The class that votes for the BJP is generally well educated, politically aware, and votes mostly based on the issues that are dear to tis heart. When the BJP abandons the issues it promised to pursue, in its lust for power, or puts in place corrupt and nepotic leaders, the BJP pays dearly because its voters generally stay away from the booth. This was what happened in UP (the 100 man cabinet, chief ministers being replaced at the drop of a hat, etc), and this is what happened in Karnataka. BJP just cannot afford to play the same game as its political opponents, because the BJP base is generally different.

As for the BJP in Karnataka, it has solid leaders from all major communities (from Brahmins to STs). As long as it does not play overt favourites, no caste is going to really resent BJP, and as long as it has a clean image, an inspiring choice for the chief minister, and a development based agenda, its base will not only vote for it, but actually come out and work for it.

Finally, the BJP's middle class base is demanding, but it is also an asset by the same token. Give them a reason to care, and they will do so much more than the average Congress voter will for it. How much of the Modi phenomenon is because of his caste? Why is the middle class coming out so much for Modi? Surely it is not because they are convinced that they have to vote in an OBC?

Cleaner person is a very good thing but that does not mean leave the ground realities to wind and think that some ideology will just work on its own. Ideology is just a catalyst but not the reason for political victories. Go 10,000 years before of just 100 years before anywhere in the world and that is the fact.

This is very true. And this is why I am so concerned about the games Kishan Reddy is playing about Telangana. I am not so sure about the caste divide in AP, but are the Kammas, Reddies, Kapus, Velamas and Brahmins so daggers drawn that one community will not vote for the candidate of another? The BJP needs to build up its base, by looking for the right issues to enthuse its cadre. The BJP will not win anywhere without the middle class, and AP has a reasonable middle class. If the BJP can win in the middle class dominated areas, they will have a base from where they can start winning others into the party.

[Yagnasri]

Bjp won 4 MPs from AP earlier. One person from AP Venkayya even became bjp President. But after that they simply did NOTHING. they got decimated and won 1 mla seat in 2009. Later they won 1 seat in by elections. In the recent Panchyat elections they are no where even in Telangana. What they are smoking to think that they will win something serious this time. Indications are bjp has 3 ideas, Jagan, TDP, TRS. This can be a reason for not going with cbn yet.

[ramana]

For reference:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_In ... tes_by_GDP

Note ranking of Andhra Pradesh and Hyderabad in the listings

[Rony]

Cong strategy for 2014 elections in A.P

[Shanmukh]

The BJP has decided to sacrifice SeemaAndhra. And Telangana as well - which is going to witness Congress vs TRS in future. In one simple move, the BJP has decided to get 0/42 in Andhra. Grand move, folks! We must give them a standing ovation and a Darwin award. Rarely do we get to see parties forego political interest, and even common sense, and commit suicide. Proxy mafia in SeemaAndhra, genuine Mafia in Telangana. Whither BJP? Wither BJP.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a ... 313558.ece

[disha]

I really hope so. What are its cards? Can it avoid the Lngayats Vs Vokkaliggas completely? It did have an excellent cadre in UP too. After the exit of Kalyan Singh, it is still not in power and that is the bottomline. It competed for third position with Congress during the last year assembly elections.

You are overlooking two major things in your analysis. First, inter caste rivalries in Karnataka are nowhere as nearly as sharp as in UP. The Congress has leaders from all communities and it keeps winning because of that reason. The Congress never turns on the Vokkaliga vs Lingayat, at least in public. There will always be backroom manoeuvrings, but a public spat between Vokkaligas and Lingayats is pretty rare. Every government in Karnataka has accommodated the two communities, reasonably amicably (right from the Nijalingappa times).

The BJP had annoyed everyone with its internecine warfare. In fact, when Yeddy refused to resign as CM, he should have been summarily expelled. That would have greatly lessened the damage to the BJP. The middle class (which cares less about caste, and more about development and policies) that generally votes BJP was nauseated by the daily infighting in the BJP. Their anger lost the BJP a lot of votes. The BJP was seen as a dissonant, divided house.

Secondly, in their internecine warfare, the BJP neglected development. A spate of corruption scandals against the BJP ministers lost it the people's confidence. The people who generally vote the BJP are not the same people who vote the Congress. The middle class, which is the BJP's main base, demands a much higher standard from the BJP, than the Congress voters do from the Congress. Some of the people on the board term it `the cleanest saffron syndrome', but the truth is, IMO, much simpler. The class that votes for the BJP is generally well educated, politically aware, and votes mostly based on the issues that are dear to tis heart. When the BJP abandons the issues it promised to pursue, in its lust for power, or puts in place corrupt and nepotic leaders, the BJP pays dearly because its voters generally stay away from the booth. This was what happened in UP (the 100 man cabinet, chief ministers being replaced at the drop of a hat, etc), and this is what happened in Karnataka. BJP just cannot afford to play the same game as its political opponents, because the BJP base is generally different.

As for the BJP in Karnataka, it has solid leaders from all major communities (from Brahmins to STs). As long as it does not play overt favourites, no caste is going to really resent BJP, and as long as it has a clean image, an inspiring choice for the chief minister, and a development based agenda, its base will not only vote for it, but actually come out and work for it.

Finally, the BJP's middle class base is demanding, but it is also an asset by the same token. Give them a reason to care, and they will do so much more than the average Congress voter will for it. How much of the Modi phenomenon is because of his caste? Why is the middle class coming out so much for Modi? Surely it is not because they are convinced that they have to vote in an OBC?

Cleaner person is a very good thing but that does not mean leave the ground realities to wind and think that some ideology will just work on its own. Ideology is just a catalyst but not the reason for political victories. Go 10,000 years before of just 100 years before anywhere in the world and that is the fact.

This is very true. And this is why I am so concerned about the games Kishan Reddy is playing about Telangana. I am not so sure about the caste divide in AP, but are the Kammas, Reddies, Kapus, Velamas and Brahmins so daggers drawn that one community will not vote for the candidate of another? The BJP needs to build up its base, by looking for the right issues to enthuse its cadre. The BJP will not win anywhere without the middle class, and AP has a reasonable middle class. If the BJP can win in the middle class dominated areas, they will have a base from where they can start winning others into the party.[/quote]

The above should go in good posts thread and a clear enunciation of why BJP's fortunes are tied to giving a clean governance. And the way forward for BJP is to grow this middle-class.

[Yagnasri]

Utter ignorance of bjp about importance of defeating mafia a&b teams is because of the fact their entire regional leadership is from one area and for years they allowed them absolute power even ganging up with naxals. Now we have this situation.

[Shanmukh]

Utter ignorance of bjp about importance of defeating mafia a&b teams is because of the fact their entire regional leadership is from one area and for years they allowed them absolute power even ganging up with naxals. Now we have this situation.

The worst of it is that the BJP cannot win even in Telangana. If they could win in Telangana, I would even understand the BJP decision. Not sympathise with the BJP decision even then, but I would be able to understand. For 10 years, the present BJP leadership in Andhra has done nothing, and today, they are making sure that the party is routed. Now, the BJP in Andhra is committing suicide stupidly, for a bunch of incompetents who could accomplish nothing in ten years.

[Yagnasri]

Today bjp office in Gunter is attacked. No one showed sympathy for them. Soon there may be copy cat attacks in other towns.

When two principle national parties abandon 5 to6 crore people where they will go? If Bjp win there will be no Telugu person in cabinet. May be venkayya RS Member from Karnataka. If informs upa3 it does not matter.

[Shanmukh]

Is this tragic or comic?

http://newindianexpress.com/states/andh ... 871150.ece

[Muppalla]

Today bjp office in Gunter is attacked. No one showed sympathy for them. Soon there may be copy cat attacks in other towns.

When two principle national parties abandon 5 to6 crore people where they will go? If Bjp win there will be no Telugu person in cabinet. May be venkayya RS Member from Karnataka. If informs upa3 it does not matter.

I personally feel good when those 5 crores are abandoned. Sorry for being crass.

Even 10 years ago and when there is no T-movement, nothing really would have happened if a BJP or RSS office is burnt down in Guntur. Just trying to tell that no one cared because BJP supported T is far away from truth. The party has a bunch of two chair office rooms with some magazines and nothing more for over a century in most parts of AP. A bunch of Brahmins sit in these offices and nothing more than that. BJP in AP is always a Hyderabad party and everywhere else it is a namesake only. In its glorious life it has tried only once 1998 to show some growth. After that the offices grew from two chairs to three chairs and a bench .

No where else a party can be built that way without getting into nitty gritty of local politics. BJP or anyother party first gets to locale setting and then implement ideology.

[Yagnasri]

ISRO Mangalyan press briefing is interrupted with agitating fellows showing placards for united AP. Now no sense of occasion etc is there as nation media mainly tv not covering it. Bjp wanted time up to 7th to make submissions. tdp, Jagan will not make any submissions. Congress also doing submissions. God only knows what it is.

ISRO incident indicating the slippery slope.

[hanumadu]

The BJP has decided to sacrifice SeemaAndhra. And Telangana as well - which is going to witness Congress vs TRS in future. In one simple move, the BJP has decided to get 0/42 in Andhra. Grand move, folks! We must give them a standing ovation and a Darwin award. Rarely do we get to see parties forego political interest, and even common sense, and commit suicide. Proxy mafia in SeemaAndhra, genuine Mafia in Telangana. Whither BJP? Wither BJP.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a ... 313558.ece

BJP has for years supported Telangana.It would be seen as a flip flop it it backtracks now. It will no chance in hell in SA even if it backtracks. It is better to go ahead with whatever chances it has in Telangana. Heck, even CBN is unable to back track on Telangana formation. Looks like this election is lost for BJP and TDP.
I think the C-Voter survey gave 3 seats to Congress in Telangana and none in SA. Its TRS and YSRCP all the way.

[ShyamSP]

The BJP has decided to sacrifice SeemaAndhra. And Telangana as well - which is going to witness Congress vs TRS in future. In one simple move, the BJP has decided to get 0/42 in Andhra. Grand move, folks! We must give them a standing ovation and a Darwin award. Rarely do we get to see parties forego political interest, and even common sense, and commit suicide. Proxy mafia in SeemaAndhra, genuine Mafia in Telangana. Whither BJP? Wither BJP.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a ... 313558.ece

BJP has for years supported Telangana.It would be seen as a flip flop it it backtracks now. It will no chance in hell in SA even if it backtracks. It is better to go ahead with whatever chances it has in Telangana. Heck, even CBN is unable to back track on Telangana formation. Looks like this election is lost for BJP and TDP.
I think the C-Voter survey gave 3 seats to Congress in Telangana and none in SA. Its TRS and YSRCP all the way.

Ignoring Bogus surveys, if the political field is competitive in the next elections, you see surprises with TRS and YSRCP not winning like you're saying.

There are some districts TRS can win coming but in other districts there have less chance. In competitive case BJP has good chance of poaching TRS votebanks. In INC-TRS alliance case, BJP has no chance to win. BJP has to break TRS if TRS is aligned with INC in elections.

If YSRC and INC compete with each other, they both lose electorally as they split their votebanks. INC-YSRC alliance, open or secret, is must in Seemandhra.

One thing is clear INC on its own name, it is limited to single-digits seat unlike 34 seats last time in 2009.