Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

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vijayk
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vijayk »

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/coalg ... 97872.html
Coalgate stings UPA again, Opposition spews venom
Coalgate is back to haunt the Manmohan Singh government. The opposition found the Indian Express report that Law Minister Ashwini Kumar and PMO officials had “vetted” the status report on Coalgate, submitted to the Supreme Court as effective ammunition to mount an all out offensive against the government.

The ruling Congress and the UPA government are once again on the defensive. The man at the centre of storm, CBI Director Ranjit Sinha, interestingly did not deny the veracity of the report. He merely called it “speculative” and said he would clarify his position in his affidavit to the Supreme Court. His non-denial has further aggravated the problem for UPA. The affidavit has to be filed by 26 April.
The issue, which rocked Parliament’s Monsoon Session last year following a CAG report revealing that there was total lack of transparency in the allocation of coal blocks to private players and resulted in the loss of a whopping Rs 1.85 lakh crore the exchequer, has somewhat been put on the political backburner for some time. Now the fresh revelations that the Law Minister and PMO officials pressurised CBI to dilute the scam status report, has once again made the issue alive. More so, it comes days ahead the opening of second half of the Budget session of Parliament, starting from 22 April. The opposition parties including the BJP, the Left and JD(U) have made their intentions clear to make a no-hold barred attack on the government.
Leader of Opposition Sushma Swaraj was prompt in tweeting her protest. “This is a very serious matter: This is the evidence of government’s pressure on CBI to save the prime minister.” Her Rajya Sabha counterpart, Arun Jaitley too came out with a stinging criticism of the whole episode calling UPA a “rogue” government. “The CBI’s image of an independent agency is now completely demolished and dismantled. CBI cannot go to the root of the matter and find the truth, and even if some honest officer tries to find the truth, the UPA is a rogue government which will not allow it to act independently. The search for truth has now been interfered with, and this was being done at the level of minister and Prime Minister’s Office officials, raising serious questions. The UPA is interested in diluting the guilt of culprits. What dilutions are to be made in the report — that was the agenda of this meeting,” Jaitley said.

The BJP leader demanded a court monitored SIT investigation of coal scam. JD(U) was quick to call it a “contempt of the court”, since the status report was prepared at the directions of the Supreme Court to be submitted to it in a sealed cover. The Left Front too had been critical of it. Interestingly last time when Coalgate had erupted the Samajwadi Party had been critical of the government but the BSP had preferred to make it easy for the government. BSP chief supremo Mayawati even took on the BJP for not pausing its protests inside Parliament to consider her favourite issue, reservation of SCs and STs in promotion. This time Congress strategists will have a difficult time in the Lok Sabha, particularly because after DMK’s exit it is now heavily dependent on SP and BSP.
The Indian Express report said senior CBI officials, including director Ranjit Sinha, were summoned by the Union law minister days before the status report was filed. During the meeting, several amendments in the status report were suggested and some were also incorporated by the CBI. “We resisted as much as we could, but yes, some toning down was done following the meeting,” it said quoting a CBI officer. The CBI’s status report was similarly “vetted” by senior PMO officials. During that meeting with the PMO, a team of CBI officers, which did not include Sinha, was also present. It is not clear whether more changes were made to the report in this meeting.

The CBI’s stand in the report, submitted to the apex court on 8 March, differs from that of the government. In a hearing on 12 March the CBI and the Centre clashed over the coalgate scam. The CBI in the status report said that the coal block allocation during 2006-09 was done without verifying the credentials of companies which allegedly misrepresented facts about themselves and no rationale was given by the coal ministry in giving coal blocks to them. However, Attorney General GE Vahanvati aggressively hit back on the findings saying, “CBI is not the final word on this.” In an unprecedented move, the Supreme Court had asked Sinha to clarify through an affidavit if the status report had been examined by the government as Vahanvati, when asked, told the court he had not gone through the report. A bench of justices RM Lodha, J Chelameswar and Madan B Lokur had directed Sinha to file an affidavit affirming that the status report submitted by the agency to the court in a sealed cover had not been “shared with the political executive”. It had asked the director to state in his affidavit that the report “was vetted by him and nothing contained therein has been shared with the political executive”.

The CBI director is in a tight position. He has to choose between his dignity and submission. The opposition is sure to make second half of the budget session dusty. For a change, the first half had been relatively quiet.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by anmol »

Chhattisgarh gets raw deal in new BJP team
TNN | Apr 1, 2013, 12.41 AM IST

RAIPUR: Even as the ruling BJP in Chhattisgarh hopes to score a hat trick in this year's assembly elections, party leaders here are apparently disappointed with party chief Rajnath Singh. Apparently, Singh has ignored state party leaders in his new team, except for appointing Saroj Pandey, MP from Durg, as the new president of Mahila Morcha.

"I think the central leadership did not consider anyone from Chhattisgarh fit to be part of BJP's new team," quipped senior party leader and MP from Raipur, Ramesh Bais. Chief minister Raman Singh treaded cautiously saying, "The new team is balanced and it will benefit the party in the elections."

Expressing disappointment over state leaders being ignored, a senior leader told TOI that it would not augur well both for the government and the party, which are gearing up to face the assembly elections just about eight months from now, sometime in November or December.

Opposition Congress media cell in charge Shailesh Nitin Trivedi, however, said though it was an internal matter of the BJP it could be an indication that the ruling party has realized that it cannot retain power in the upcoming assembly elections.

Karuna Shukla, niece of former prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, had worked with BJP national body for almost 12 years but could not get representation this time. Besides, other senior leaders, including the tribal leaders, could not find a berth in BJP's Team 2014.

The rise of Saroj Pandey within the party is also a cause of worry for a major section of party leaders, including those from Durg and Bhilai, who talk in private about her chief ministerial ambitions.

Pandey won Durg Municipal Corporation twice during which she was elected to the legislative assembly for the first time in 2008. However, she quit the assembly seat in 2009 following her election to the 15th Lok Sabha from Durg constituency. Now, BJP chief Rajnath Singh has given her a key portfolio in the BJP Mahila Morcha.
Muppalla
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

If Nitish takes a divorce, it will be just him and no one else. His own party has not such will power. He is more controlled by few from BJP. In the end Modi will prevail.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RajeshA »

We need an internal coup in JD(U). Get rid of Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by fanne »

Don't fall for it Shivraj Singh as you can see is just venting against Nitish. It is personal between them, means nothing on party or poll level.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Supratik »

But it helps in putting reverse pressure.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sanku »

Supratik wrote:But it helps in putting reverse pressure.
Unless of course Nitish and BJP/Modi are in it together, then it does not.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sagar G »

Supratik wrote:But it helps in putting reverse pressure.
Eggjactly, even if he is BSing from start to finish it makes no difference. Bhinkari can be made to fall in line and kneel before Modi.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sanku »

kapilrdave wrote:How is it that all advantage will go to lallu (that's his real name. We/media give him a better name needlessly.) by BJP vs JDU battle? Lallu lost miserably last time
With all due respect Kapil ji, you just do not understand the basics of politics.

This "Lalu lost miserably" is only for those who just do not understand politics. Lalu's vote bank is intact, and even a mild anti-incumbency and/or Congress tie up can send the swing votes back into INC/Lalu kitty.

We should thank Owl baba, for Lalu's defeat, a Congress and Lalu together even in last election would have put up a far closer fight, and last election was significantly about Nitish.

It is good to have a ideology, but not at the cost of drinking your own Kool-aid. The vote shares are not getting polarized by Modi's presence, the election will be fought in trenches at candidate level. All the regular factors will play a role there, even if Modi can influence 3-5% votes it would be a big big deal, and there is no sign of that yet.
Muppalla
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

RajeshA wrote:We need an internal coup in JD(U). Get rid of Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav.
Nothing may happen. JD(U) will just finally accept Modi and will go in a coalition. A lot of posturing is happening and things will breakdown if there are few good surveys. It seems like BJP wanted to increase the number it is contesting as opposed to what Nitish wants to give. The aggressive posturing from BJP has several reasons. (One is definitely Modi :) ) Someone will adjust the seats issue and then all is well flag will be raised. Same things are going. BJP wants more from SS and also wants SS to shed more for Raj than what BJP sheds for him. Again the reason for such a posturing is Modi :).

Basically this I don't like Modi is not about secularism but it is all about the BJP's goonda gardhi (If someone is happy with that word). Bottomline is for these parties the rallying person is absent for the next poll. The only person polarizes and rallies is Modi and hence the BJP's demands. To ward of the BJP's demand, they are either talking riots, secularism or Sushma-the-great.

Time will tell. In the end both Nitish and SS has no way to fight with BJP and also survive. They are playing this game thinking that BJP will give in because it has inhouse fissures due to D4 and are expecting that D4 will come to their rescue.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by disha »

anmol wrote:Chhattisgarh gets raw deal in new BJP team

TNN | Apr 1, 2013, 12.41 AM IST
And the news is from TOILet News Network.
The rise of Saroj Pandey within the party is also a cause of worry for a major section of party leaders, including those from Durg and Bhilai, who talk in private about her chief ministerial ambitions.
Honestly I also have CM and PM ambitions - Chota state hi sahin... And now there is no secret about it. The whole world knows.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by disha »

Muppalla wrote:...Time will tell. In the end both Nitish and SS has no way to fight with BJP and also survive. They are playing this game thinking that BJP will give in because it has inhouse fissures due to D4 and are expecting that D4 will come to their rescue.
And the D4 are using hand maidens in JDU/SS to improve their bargaining position. It is a very high stakes brinkmanship game of who blinks first! Definitely not for the faint hearted!
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sushupti »

Follow this guy Vinod Sharma for very subtle observations on D4, specially Arun Jaitely.

https://twitter.com/vinod_sharma
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sushupti »

Image
vijayk
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vijayk »

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.co ... h-new-link

Any comments?
Now to the math. Extrapolating the trends from 2014: the electoral math-II, here’s how the state-wise break-up looks:

2014 Lok Sabha: Projections


Total 545

CON 107

BJP 156

In states where Cong+BJP projected seats don’t add up to total seats, UPA/NDA allies or unattached regional parties make up the projected balance as follows:

NDA allies projected seat tally: SS 16, SAD 7, AGP 2, Independents/Others 5. Total 30.

UPA allies projected seat tally: NCP 8, NC 2, Independents/Others: 12, Total 22.

Leaning BJP: AIADMK 22, TRS 13, BJD 18, Others 12. Total 65

Leaning Congress: YSR 19, DMK 14, RJD 5, Others 10. Total 48

Unattached Regional: JD(U) 15, TMC 25, TDP 5, BSP 22, SP 26,

Left Front 24. Total 117

Summary:

BJP (156) + allies (30)= 186 + Leaning BJP (65) = 251

Congress (107) + allies (22) = 129 + Leaning Congress (48) = 177

Unattached Regional = 117
vijayk
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vijayk »

http://m.indianexpress.com/news/anger-a ... h/1102101/
The clamour for Narendra Modi among BJP workers in Bihar is not matched by a commensurate public sentiment in his favour. But discontent against Nitish Kumar appears to simmer uniformly across the common support base of both the BJP and JD(U). Significantly, in the popular perception, it is Nitish who is being held responsible for all that appears wrong with the policies of the government.

The discontent is not so strong yet that Nitish’s core support would switch loyalty, but is significant enough for the BJP to sense an opportunity to corner the JD(U).

The resentment is pronounced among the BJP’s traditional upper caste support base, which accuses Nitish of a “selective development model that reaches out to favoured caste groups”. Both upper caste voters and OBC Yadavs complain that benefits like school uniform and bicycle schemes, and approach roads to villages, have reached only certain sections.

On the question of a break between the JD(U) and BJP, Brahmin-dominated Rataitha village under Jamalpur assembly segment (Munger) produced classic upper-caste reactions.

“In case of a split, the BJP will be our clear choice under Modi. Upper castes are in any case marginalized under this government. What happened to the upper caste commission set up by Nitish? Where are its recommendations?” said villager Ramayan Pathak.

The narrative of upper caste victimhood imagines itself as a ‘minority’ bigger than Muslims. Popular reactions in Brahmin villages suggest that Nitish’s political signalling in cancelling his Adhikar Yatra to Ara following the killing of Barmeshwar Mukhiya, chief of the disbanded Ranbir Sena, did not go down well with the people.

The Indian Express found ample evidence of simmering public resentment in eight Lok Sabha constituencies — Munger, Nawada, Nalanda, Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Sheohar, Darbhanga and Madhubani — that it visited this week.

Even JD(U) workers and sympathisers have begun to express frustration over alleged corruption and afsarshahi, and of being ignored by the administration. Local JD(U) workers and leaders complain of being unable to get much done for supporters, and fear losing steam by the time the elections come around.

The scrapping of the MLA LAD fund has reduced MLAs to playing only a supervisory role, while the officers and engineers controlled by the engineer-in-chief, the nodal authority for the replacement CM Local Area Development Scheme, have emerged stronger.

Said a JD(U) district president, “Abhi thodi zyada hi afsarshahi ho gayi hai. Hum agar kisi ki pairvi lekar jaate hain toh pehle to inkaar kar deta hai adhikari, aur agar fir se kehte hain toh Patna message karwaa deta hai ki hum log extortion ke liye dabaav bana rahe hain. (The officers are getting a little too aggressive. If we go with a request, they refuse; if we insist, they send a message to Patna that they are facing extortion.)”

The JD(U) leader said that unless officialdom is reined in, party workers could lose motivation. The BJP’s Sikti MLA, Anandi Prasad Yadav, who recently faced accusations of extortion, alleged that an attempt to monitor even a government scheme could now attract allegations.

“An overdose of officialdom in administration is bringing disrepute to Nitish’s good work,” JD(U) leader and Sheohar Zilla Parishad chairman Mrityunjay Singh said in an oblique admission of the frustration in his party ranks.

The JD(U)’s EBC support base too complains of the seemingly all-powerful afsarshahi.

“The EBC have got respect during Nitish’s regime, they have also become village heads now and have got quota in teachers’ appointments. But they want more. Pradhanji ko kuchh kaam karne ko ab chahiye, so toh ab adkhikariyon ke jimme hai. Uper se corruption bhi hai (Pradhanji would like to do some real work, but that is with the officials. On top of that, there is corruption),” said Mahendra Sah of Sarisab village in Madhubani constituency.

Imtiaz, a relative of the head of the Sakari village panchayat, alleged corruption in the release of funds for NREGA works across Madhubani district.

“Pehle to panchayat samitiyon ko kaam dene ke bajaaye contractors ko kaam de diya gaya hai. Doosra, panchayaton ke paas sirf NREGA ka kaam hai, toh usme hum log kam karwaate hain aur fir hafton adhikariyon ke chakkar lagaate hain payment release karaane ke liye. Isme bhrastachar badhta hai, (Contractors have got all the work. Panchayat samitis only have NREGA, but we have to chase officials for weeks to get payments released. This leads to corruption),” Imtiaz said.

The resentment may weigh on the JD(U) leadership as it bargains with the BJP, especially as the grievances seem to be targeting Nitish directly. The chief minister’s “dictatorial” style has been the focus of public ire during the protests against salaries to contract teachers and the sale of country liquor in villages.

“How could the chief minister demean protesting teachers by saying they would get no raises or be elevated to government teachers? It was the arrogance of his huge majority in the assembly,” said Pappu Singh of Bhumihar-dominated Dhawdha village under Warsaliganj assembly segment of Nawada.

BJP workers clamouring for Narendra Modi see a “golden opportunity” in the circumstances. “Nitish’s current term is not as successful as the last one. There is popular disgruntlement. We are now in a position to dictate terms,” said BJP’s Muzaffarpur district president Arvind Singh.

There is also the Lalu factor.

“Not only is Lalu attracting good crowds in his parivartan yatra (which started last June), the RJD has substantially improved its vote share in the bypolls,” said a JD(U) legislator belonging to the EBC communitiy, apparently acknowledging that the resentment against Nitish was adding to Lalu’s muscle.

JD(U) leaders remain uneasy that despite having been decimated in the last assembly elections, the RJD and LJP together got over 76 lakh votes compared to the NDA’s 1.13 crore — suggesting that a swing of only 2-3 per cent in a three-corner contest could see Lalu bouncing back.
I say get rid of that alliance with moron who can't even govern and using Modi as an excuse. Get rid of him and win 20-25 seats on your own. He brings BJP down with him
Muppalla
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

vijayk wrote:http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.co ... h-new-link

Any comments?
Now to the math. Extrapolating the trends from 2014: the electoral math-II, here’s how the state-wise break-up looks:

2014 Lok Sabha: Projections


Total 545

CON 107

BJP 156

In states where Cong+BJP projected seats don’t add up to total seats, UPA/NDA allies or unattached regional parties make up the projected balance as follows:

NDA allies projected seat tally: SS 16, SAD 7, AGP 2, Independents/Others 5. Total 30.

UPA allies projected seat tally: NCP 8, NC 2, Independents/Others: 12, Total 22.

Leaning BJP: AIADMK 22, TRS 13, BJD 18, Others 12. Total 65

Leaning Congress: YSR 19, DMK 14, RJD 5, Others 10. Total 48

Unattached Regional: JD(U) 15, TMC 25, TDP 5, BSP 22, SP 26,

Left Front 24. Total 117

Summary:

BJP (156) + allies (30)= 186 + Leaning BJP (65) = 251

Congress (107) + allies (22) = 129 + Leaning Congress (48) = 177

Unattached Regional = 117
BSP 22, SP 26 then how come BJP is only 156 and INC is only 107? 30+ seats are there here that are unaccounted.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sushupti »

vijayk wrote:http://m.indianexpress.com/news/anger-a ... h/1102101/
The clamour for Narendra Modi among BJP workers in Bihar is not matched by a commensurate public sentiment in his favour. But discontent against Nitish Kumar appears to simmer uniformly across the common support base of both the BJP and JD(U). Significantly, in the popular perception, it is Nitish who is being held responsible for all that appears wrong with the policies of the government.

The discontent is not so strong yet that Nitish’s core support would switch loyalty, but is significant enough for the BJP to sense an opportunity to corner the JD(U).

The resentment is pronounced among the BJP’s traditional upper caste support base, which accuses Nitish of a “selective development model that reaches out to favoured caste groups”. Both upper caste voters and OBC Yadavs complain that benefits like school uniform and bicycle schemes, and approach roads to villages, have reached only certain sections.

On the question of a break between the JD(U) and BJP, Brahmin-dominated Rataitha village under Jamalpur assembly segment (Munger) produced classic upper-caste reactions.

“In case of a split, the BJP will be our clear choice under Modi. Upper castes are in any case marginalized under this government. What happened to the upper caste commission set up by Nitish? Where are its recommendations?” said villager Ramayan Pathak.

The narrative of upper caste victimhood imagines itself as a ‘minority’ bigger than Muslims. Popular reactions in Brahmin villages suggest that Nitish’s political signalling in cancelling his Adhikar Yatra to Ara following the killing of Barmeshwar Mukhiya, chief of the disbanded Ranbir Sena, did not go down well with the people.

The Indian Express found ample evidence of simmering public resentment in eight Lok Sabha constituencies — Munger, Nawada, Nalanda, Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Sheohar, Darbhanga and Madhubani — that it visited this week.

Even JD(U) workers and sympathisers have begun to express frustration over alleged corruption and afsarshahi, and of being ignored by the administration. Local JD(U) workers and leaders complain of being unable to get much done for supporters, and fear losing steam by the time the elections come around.

The scrapping of the MLA LAD fund has reduced MLAs to playing only a supervisory role, while the officers and engineers controlled by the engineer-in-chief, the nodal authority for the replacement CM Local Area Development Scheme, have emerged stronger.

Said a JD(U) district president, “Abhi thodi zyada hi afsarshahi ho gayi hai. Hum agar kisi ki pairvi lekar jaate hain toh pehle to inkaar kar deta hai adhikari, aur agar fir se kehte hain toh Patna message karwaa deta hai ki hum log extortion ke liye dabaav bana rahe hain. (The officers are getting a little too aggressive. If we go with a request, they refuse; if we insist, they send a message to Patna that they are facing extortion.)”

The JD(U) leader said that unless officialdom is reined in, party workers could lose motivation. The BJP’s Sikti MLA, Anandi Prasad Yadav, who recently faced accusations of extortion, alleged that an attempt to monitor even a government scheme could now attract allegations.

“An overdose of officialdom in administration is bringing disrepute to Nitish’s good work,” JD(U) leader and Sheohar Zilla Parishad chairman Mrityunjay Singh said in an oblique admission of the frustration in his party ranks.

The JD(U)’s EBC support base too complains of the seemingly all-powerful afsarshahi.

“The EBC have got respect during Nitish’s regime, they have also become village heads now and have got quota in teachers’ appointments. But they want more. Pradhanji ko kuchh kaam karne ko ab chahiye, so toh ab adkhikariyon ke jimme hai. Uper se corruption bhi hai (Pradhanji would like to do some real work, but that is with the officials. On top of that, there is corruption),” said Mahendra Sah of Sarisab village in Madhubani constituency.

Imtiaz, a relative of the head of the Sakari village panchayat, alleged corruption in the release of funds for NREGA works across Madhubani district.

“Pehle to panchayat samitiyon ko kaam dene ke bajaaye contractors ko kaam de diya gaya hai. Doosra, panchayaton ke paas sirf NREGA ka kaam hai, toh usme hum log kam karwaate hain aur fir hafton adhikariyon ke chakkar lagaate hain payment release karaane ke liye. Isme bhrastachar badhta hai, (Contractors have got all the work. Panchayat samitis only have NREGA, but we have to chase officials for weeks to get payments released. This leads to corruption),” Imtiaz said.

The resentment may weigh on the JD(U) leadership as it bargains with the BJP, especially as the grievances seem to be targeting Nitish directly. The chief minister’s “dictatorial” style has been the focus of public ire during the protests against salaries to contract teachers and the sale of country liquor in villages.

“How could the chief minister demean protesting teachers by saying they would get no raises or be elevated to government teachers? It was the arrogance of his huge majority in the assembly,” said Pappu Singh of Bhumihar-dominated Dhawdha village under Warsaliganj assembly segment of Nawada.

BJP workers clamouring for Narendra Modi see a “golden opportunity” in the circumstances. “Nitish’s current term is not as successful as the last one. There is popular disgruntlement. We are now in a position to dictate terms,” said BJP’s Muzaffarpur district president Arvind Singh.

There is also the Lalu factor.

“Not only is Lalu attracting good crowds in his parivartan yatra (which started last June), the RJD has substantially improved its vote share in the bypolls,” said a JD(U) legislator belonging to the EBC communitiy, apparently acknowledging that the resentment against Nitish was adding to Lalu’s muscle.

JD(U) leaders remain uneasy that despite having been decimated in the last assembly elections, the RJD and LJP together got over 76 lakh votes compared to the NDA’s 1.13 crore — suggesting that a swing of only 2-3 per cent in a three-corner contest could see Lalu bouncing back.
I say get rid of that alliance with moron who can't even govern and using Modi as an excuse. Get rid of him and win 20-25 seats on your own. He brings BJP down with him
So Sanku was right on the dot about razor thin margin.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Hari Seldon »

Hash tag hysteria in era of retail Politics. Coming up: Free roaming
By Shankkar Aiyar in TNIE


Well paced, humorous parallels and interesting facts. Recommended read.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by kapilrdave »

Sushupti wrote: So Sanku was right on the dot about razor thin margin.
One can argue any which way. The 2-3% difference can go to lallu's side even with BJP-JDU alliance. Some muslims who might have voted to JDU would go to lallu in the name of NM. At the same time a break up can fetch some %age from lallu's side to the either party. Remember, in a breakup scenario it would be a real polarization. INC and RJD are failure as everyone knows so I don't know how can one claim that their vote percent will increase while it is decreasing all over as per the surveys. The truth is that all these arguments are futile at this point. What is visible in front of us is JDU's attitude today. They sidelined BJP in that adhikar rally even though BJP is a partner in the state gov. They are simply unreliable. They may go to cong in a post poll scenario. Then Sanku ji can tell me what is the difference between lallu and bhikhari because then it would be lallu == bhikhari == congi.

Sanku ji accuses me of being an ideologist. To live upto his accusation let me put up my thoughts. Bihar is curbed by powerty, MH is held hostage by goonda raj and PU is influencedd by khalistani SAD. BJP needs to liberate these states from these scums. And it is not that it will come into way of defeating congis. Both CAN be done at the same time.

Let's say BJP doesn't ditch allies in this election. In an ideal scenario NDA will win hands down and all the allies remain intact till the end of the term. But still in the next election there is bound to be some anti incumbency factor even if manufactured. This is bound to happen because NM will not work in socialist way. So even though people would like him, media is bound to talk about anti incumbency and put pressure on BJP. So again they will take 'wise' decision to go with alliance and compromise some. And the cycle goes on. To become a true PAN India party BJP needs to be bold and assertive. They have to start from somewhere. And that time is now now.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Pranav »

fanne wrote:Don't fall for it Shivraj Singh as you can see is just venting against Nitish. It is personal between them, means nothing on party or poll level.
Shivraj Singh may be venting but the key question is the funding to Nitish from hostile foreign sources ... and how BJP tall leaders are collaborating with Nitish to stop Namo.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sanku »

kapilrdave wrote:
Sushupti wrote: So Sanku was right on the dot about razor thin margin.
One can argue any which way. The 2-3% difference can go to lallu's side even with BJP-JDU alliance. Some muslims who might have voted to JDU would go to lallu in the name of NM.
Yes, it is possible, there are no certainties. that is why the entire drama is being orchestrated.
At the same time a break up can fetch some %age from lallu's side to the either party. Remember, in a breakup scenario it would be a real polarization.
There is no reason to assume that Lalu's vote base will split based on the split, Lalu's votes are for Lalu and not anti combination. Further what will happen is that both NDA and BJP will lose votes (their voters vote for each other) than Lalu losing.
INC and RJD are failure as everyone knows so I don't know how can one claim that their vote percent will increase while it is decreasing all over as per the surveys.
1) Show a specific suvery on Bihar
2) Survey's are anyway crap.


What is visible in front of us is JDU's attitude today.
Two most worthless qualities in terms of discussing politics.
:mrgreen:

Politics is rarely about visible attitudes. It is about sameekaran
Sanku ji accuses me of being an ideologist.
To be actually truth full I was being polite, extraordinarily naive might be a more appropriate description.
:D
. Bihar is curbed by powerty, . BJP needs to liberate these states from these scums. And it is not that it will come into way of defeating congis. Both CAN be done at the same time.
Which in case you did not notice, is just what is being done by BJP + JDU in Bihar. Nitish is a excellent administrator, and Bihar is changing rapidly for the better. Any number of external validations exist.
Let's say BJP doesn't ditch allies in this election. In an ideal scenario NDA will win hands down and all the allies remain intact till the end of the term. But still in the next election there is bound to be some anti incumbency factor even if manufactured.
Let us crawl before planning for the marathon shall we?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sanku »

Pranav wrote:
fanne wrote:Don't fall for it Shivraj Singh as you can see is just venting against Nitish. It is personal between them, means nothing on party or poll level.
Shivraj Singh may be venting but the key question is the funding to Nitish from hostile foreign sources ... and how BJP tall leaders are collaborating with Nitish to stop Namo.
So a random statement from a venter becomes a proof that Nitish is funding from hostile foreign source and then it becomes a reason for creating a fantasy of D4.

This is how perfectly good discussion end up as CTs
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sanku »

Sushupti wrote: So Sanku was right on the dot about razor thin margin.
Thank you Sushupti-ji, I appreciate your acknowledgement.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by kapilrdave »

Sanku wrote: There is no reason to assume that Lalu's vote base will split based on the split, Lalu's votes are for Lalu and not anti combination. Further what will happen is that both NDA and BJP will lose votes (their voters vote for each other) than Lalu losing.
The local leaders of either BJP or JDU don't agree with you per the news report I posted earlier. It deosn't specifically speak about lallu but BJP is confident of making it big with a split. I would prefer 20 seats of BJP alone than 12 BJP +20 JDU in last election. Then no one stops them doing a post poll alliance. But what if 20 JDU joing cong after poll? I care less for lallu because if BJP pulls up good numbers then he will become irrelevant.
Sanku wrote: 1) Show a specific suvery on Bihar
2) Survey's are anyway crap.
No survey specifically on Bihar but I said 'all over'. If surveys are crap then why you want it? Just say surveys are crap. And what is the basis that you think that lallu's vote bank will remain intact? He lost state election and center election. Surely his vote bank did break up. Alliance with con would break it even further.
Two most worthless qualities in terms of discussing politics.
:mrgreen:

Politics is rarely about visible attitudes. It is about sameekaran

To be actually truth full I was being polite, extraordinarily naive might be a more appropriate description.
:D
And I'm sure a man as pragmatic as you can tell me what is the 'sameekaran' behind sidelining BJP from the adhikar yatra. I also believe that there would be some mysterious sameekarinic pragmatism behind hoping for winning 160-180 seats by contesting only 300.
Let us crawl before planning for the marathon shall we?
We get worried if a kid capable of walking still keeps crawling.

This debate can go on forever. To cut it short I would like you to answer a simple questions.

When do you think is a good time/circumstances for BJP to go all alone in MOST states?

IMO it is THIS time as BJP is confident and has a wave behind it. They need to exploit maximum out of it. But what do you think?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RajeshA »

Everywhere in the Hindi belt where BJP fights, BJP should make INC its chief opponent. In UP and Bihar, Congress is weak. By making Congress as the chief opposition, Muslim votes would tend towards Congress, and all the sickular parties would drown, as Congress doesn't really have any caste sticking out with Congress. Dalits is a question mark!

As such I would urge BJP to make a strong initiative to get SC votes.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Pranav »

Sanku wrote:
Pranav wrote: Shivraj Singh may be venting but the key question is the funding to Nitish from hostile foreign sources ... and how BJP tall leaders are collaborating with Nitish to stop Namo.
So a random statement from a venter becomes a proof that Nitish is funding from hostile foreign source and then it becomes a reason for creating a fantasy of D4.

This is how perfectly good discussion end up as CTs
If you want to declare that the senior JD(U) insider is lying, that is entirely your prerogative. But others may want to get to the bottom of the matter.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Supratik »

Kapil, according to current calculations both JD(U) and BJP are going to loose in BH if there is a split. BTW, the difference in BH becomes 2-3% only if there is a RJD-LJP-INC alliance. So a split becomes an issue only if there is a India-wide Modi wave which will become more evident in the coming months when he starts campaigning grassroots. Your idea of going alone everywhere is not realistic. If NM doesn't make it I hope they don't make Advani PM and go for someone fresh. I have a feeling that Advani is a poor administrator and does not have an economic vision.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by kapilrdave »

Pranav wrote: If you want to declare that the senior JD(U) insider is lying, that is entirely your prerogative. But others may want to get to the bottom of the matter.
Whether what Shivraj says might be true or false, but that video confirms two things at least

1. That guy desperately wants to join BJP but not before becoming a 'victim' of bhikhari's 'rouge' politics in JDU. Which means he wants to paint NK before leaving so BJP gets more benefit out of him.

2. JDU hasn't shown the courage to dismiss him as yet implying they are weak in state.

That means BJP is more powerful in Bihar than JDU and if ditched JDU will lose badly and kamal will shine. That's all I wanted to say all this while.
Last edited by kapilrdave on 14 Apr 2013 17:01, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ashashi »

Sushupti wrote: So Sanku was right on the dot about razor thin margin.
Last time around JD(U) and BJP won with a convincing margin in Bihar.

Party -- Seats Contested -- Seats Won -- % votes in Seats Contested
JD(U) -- 141 -- 115 -- 38.77
BJP -- 102 -- 91 -- 39.56
RJD -- 168 -- 22 -- 27.31
INC -- 243 -- 4 -- 8.37

Detailed figures here:
http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/StatisticalR ... ov2010.pdf
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by sunnyP »

vijayk wrote:http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.co ... h-new-link

Any comments?
Now to the math. Extrapolating the trends from 2014: the electoral math-II, here’s how the state-wise break-up looks:

2014 Lok Sabha: Projections


Total 545

CON 107

BJP 156

In states where Cong+BJP projected seats don’t add up to total seats, UPA/NDA allies or unattached regional parties make up the projected balance as follows:

NDA allies projected seat tally: SS 16, SAD 7, AGP 2, Independents/Others 5. Total 30.

UPA allies projected seat tally: NCP 8, NC 2, Independents/Others: 12, Total 22.

Leaning BJP: AIADMK 22, TRS 13, BJD 18, Others 12. Total 65

Leaning Congress: YSR 19, DMK 14, RJD 5, Others 10. Total 48

Unattached Regional: JD(U) 15, TMC 25, TDP 5, BSP 22, SP 26,

Left Front 24. Total 117

Summary:

BJP (156) + allies (30)= 186 + Leaning BJP (65) = 251

Congress (107) + allies (22) = 129 + Leaning Congress (48) = 177

Unattached Regional = 117

It's a mistake to refer to the SP, BSP and TMC as 'unattached regional' - despite the pantomime drama they partake in there is nothing 'unattached' about Mullah Yadav, Mayawati and Mamta. They are simply INC but in a different dress.
Last edited by sunnyP on 14 Apr 2013 18:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Supratik »

So JD(U) 22.5%, BJP 16.5%, INC 8.5%, LJP 6.5%, RJD 19%. NDA 39%, RJD+LJP+INC 34%. For JD(U) to win they need INC & LJP 37.5%.
Plus he is hoping for Muslim votes from RJD. Frankly, I don't understand his calculations. The BH BJP should explore the option of a breakaway faction of JD(U) as there may be many unhappy people in the JD(U) with this split. The BJP needs 30 odd seats to form a Govt.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sushupti »

Image
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Singha »

On first pic extreme left is that mahesh bhatt? I am 99pct sure thats him
Last edited by Singha on 14 Apr 2013 21:12, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sushupti »

Singha wrote:On first pic extreme left is that mahesh bhatt?
Yes!.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vijayk »

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... nchalguda/
The troubles for Jagan’s party is growing by the day and the problem which was just confined to a handful of districts few days ago is now turning into a full blown war across the length and breadth of Coastal AP, which is being expected to fetch some rich dividends for Jagan in the coming elections. Even in Nellore district, which has shown some spectacular success for the party in last year’s bye elections is witnessing the resignation of some key leaders including reported moves of MP Mekapati Rajmohan Reddy getting in touch with Congress high command again. Sources say with Vijayamma unable to control this and Sharmila unsuccessful at addressing this, the matters are now heading to Chanchalguda jail in Hyderabad where Jagan is being currently lodged. Jagan, sensing such trouble took some senior leaders like Mysoora Reddy and Umma Reddy Ventateswarlu into his party, but it looks like they are also unwilling to use their political skills in such a situation and now the headache is reaching Jagan.
http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... m-in-2014/
In about a year’s time from now, the entire state of Andhra Pradesh would be getting into some battle zone. This is due to the elections scheduled to take place so the media hype and political party projection would be crucial. But then, many analysts are stating the Telangana Rashtra Samithi will have problems. This is during the elections in 2014. As such, TRS is now getting stiff opposition from the BJP because they are focusing strongly on the Telangana region. For this, they are using the image of Narendra Modi, their support for the Telangana cause and other factors so that confidence can be developed among voters. So, if TRS has to win against BJP it has to do hold a comfortable margin. In total, there are 110 seats in the Telangana region and KCR’s target is to reach 100 seats. But with the BJP coming in full stride, TRS is sure to face the threat from the saffron party. We have to see how TRS will handle this.
Wouldn't it be ironic if BJP gets enough seats in Telangana and Naidu has to beg BJP for coalition?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Yogi_G »

Any material or photos of Muslim politicians in India dressing up like Hindus and attending Hindu festivals? How many from JDU who are Muslims and who have done that?

The only one I found for above was some SP Muslim politician visiting some Hindu seer during the Maha Kumbh. One famous incident of Paki mentality was when E AHmed refused to light a lamp to inagurate a function saying its a Hindu tradition, singer Yesudas left the function in a huff!
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sanku »

kapilrdave wrote: The local leaders of either BJP or JDU don't agree with you per the news report I posted earlier. It deosn't specifically speak about lallu but BJP is confident of making it big with a split.
Actually no you are wrong, it specifically says that JD (U) is worried that the split will help Lalu. BJP may take a stance that their hands are forced if JD (U) walks out, if they dont accept BJP choice, but that is very different from BJP wanting to leave JDU proactively.

BJP will do a very hard look at adv Modi vs loss due to JD(U) departure before making that decision, there is no room for emotions here.
I would prefer 20 seats of BJP alone than 12 BJP +20 JDU in last election.
And I would prefer the a Akhand bharat free of maleecha influence, that is rather irrelevant. We want to talk what is possible right now.
Then no one stops them doing a post poll alliance. But what if 20 JDU joing cong after poll? I care less for lallu because if BJP pulls up good numbers then he will become irrelevant.
There will be no need for post poll alignment, given your approach. UPA will be large enough to return. NDA will be weak.

If NDA plays its cards well, it can get 40 out of 40 seats, your plan is to basically gift away 20-25 of that, and then feel good about coming together after the polls to make 15.
Sanku wrote: No survey specifically on Bihar but I said 'all over'. If surveys are crap then why you want it?
Two show that your statement is so unfounded that you dont even have a modicum of support, all you have is "I think it would be a good idea"

Sorry, not founded by reality.
And what is the basis that you think that lallu's vote bank will remain intact? He lost state election and center election. Surely his vote bank did break up. Alliance with con would break it even further.
Look at the % polled my dear.

And I'm sure a man as pragmatic as you can tell me what is the 'sameekaran' behind sidelining BJP from the adhikar yatra. I also believe that there would be some mysterious sameekarinic pragmatism behind hoping for winning 160-180 seats by contesting only 300.
Yes, you play for winning, you play on seats where you can win, you have a narrow focus and target those. If 300 seats need to be covered, say NaMo can cover 150. Even if 500 seats are contested he can still cover 150. (150 is some number) -- you have to focus on seats where your chief message and messengers are well heard and replied to rather than wasting them on arbit places.

That is complete wasteful exercise.

Now Adhikar rally, Congress has a strong vote bank in East Delhi, Nitish can cut in with a JD(U) candidate, BJP being a Punjabi party in Delhi loses 2 seats in East Delhi, where they look for a eastern touch.

Very simple.
When do you think is a good time/circumstances for BJP to go all alone in MOST states?
Define most. But basically, this time, just focus on winning where you are, add Jammu and Orissa, etc, places where you have some hope in. 2019 focus on being in places like AP, Kerla etc, where you are not there, but have a place (and when I mean focus, that means focus, do everything in your power) -- in 2023 stretch to TN etc. So 15 years from now.

For the 15 years, trying to stay in power, and not letting congress come back, will automatically expand the party, since power attracts power.
IMO it is THIS time as BJP is confident and has a wave behind it. They need to exploit maximum out of it. But what do you think?
I do not see a wave. A wave like Ram Janmbhoomi, needs a emotive issue, and at least 6 years to develop. Narendra Modi, for all his ability is NOT a emotive issue, barring for Muslims.

Even then a wave is about 3-5% vote swing. You need to be 25% or more before you can encash the wave, even during Ram Janmbhoomi, BJP did not get seats in areas where it was not established. That growth happened later, and also the areas where the wave helped, ABV-Advani had been spending years building the party post 82 anyway, slowly, one constituency at a time, cutting deals as and when possible, including with communists..

All the work since 82 culminated in 98. It would take 15 years of low key active work, not necessarily a big bang approach.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by sunnyP »

Yogi_G wrote:Any material or photos of Muslim politicians in India dressing up like Hindus and attending Hindu festivals? How many from JDU who are Muslims and who have done that?

The only one I found for above was some SP Muslim politician visiting some Hindu seer during the Maha Kumbh. One famous incident of Paki mentality was when E AHmed refused to light a lamp to inagurate a function saying its a Hindu tradition, singer Yesudas left the function in a huff!

Farooq Abdullah on stage at a Hindu event singing bhajans comes to mind.

But yes these cases are few and far between.

Hindu politicians dressing in Muslim attire = secular and praiseworthy.
Muslim politicians dressing in Hindu attire = a communal fascist hindu society forcing people to dress in a certain way.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by jimmyray »

JD(U) national sec. Shivraj Singh says JD(U) got foreign funds from hostile nations and that's why NiKu is opposing NaMO. This interview is really explosive http://youtu.be/xfV-k8tglnI. Shivraj may have a personal vendetta against NiKu but accusation of foreign funding from hostile nations is definitely serious
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