AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

[Shanmukh]

Ignoring Bogus surveys, if the political field is competitive in the next elections, you see surprises with TRS and YSRCP not winning like you're saying.

There are some districts TRS can win coming but in other districts there have less chance. In competitive case BJP has good chance of poaching TRS votebanks. In INC-TRS alliance case, BJP has no chance to win. BJP has to break TRS if TRS is align with INC in elections.

If YSRC and INC compete with each other, they both lose electorally as they split their votebanks. INC-YSRC alliance, open or secret, is must in Seemandhra.

One thing is clear INC on its own name, it is limited to single-digits seat unlike 34 seats last time in 2009.

Their plan, IIRC, was to poach the base of the TDP in Telangana. Since CBN has been fasting against Telangana and is certain to oppose it in Parliament, I am not sure where it leaves TDP in Telangana. It is possible that the BJP is planning to grab this bunch (Rathod, MP from Adilabad, was in touch with BJP, IIRC).

[hanumadu]

The worst of it is that the BJP cannot win even in Telangana. If they could win in Telangana, I would even understand the BJP decision. Not sympathise with the BJP decision even then, but I would be able to understand. For 10 years, the present BJP leadership in Andhra has done nothing, and today, they are making sure that the party is routed. Now, the BJP in Andhra is committing suicide stupidly, for a bunch of incompetents who could accomplish nothing in ten years.

There is no leadership in AP BJP. Kishan Reddy does not seem to be cut out for it. The central BJP killed whatever cadre it had by sacrificing its gains to TDP during the NDA regime. All the issues of infighting in various states and lack of proper leaders comes with weak central leader ship. There is no authoritative figure or set up at the center who can recognize the right person and suppress dissent. What has the central leader ship done to grow the party in various states? Every body is doing a padayatra in AP these days. Why not some body from BJP (Kishan Reddy perhaps) do it?

[ShyamSP]

Ignoring Bogus surveys, if the political field is competitive in the next elections, you see surprises with TRS and YSRCP not winning like you're saying.

There are some districts TRS can win coming but in other districts there have less chance. In competitive case BJP has good chance of poaching TRS votebanks. In INC-TRS alliance case, BJP has no chance to win. BJP has to break TRS if TRS is align with INC in elections.

If YSRC and INC compete with each other, they both lose electorally as they split their votebanks. INC-YSRC alliance, open or secret, is must in Seemandhra.

One thing is clear INC on its own name, it is limited to single-digits seat unlike 34 seats last time in 2009.

Their plan, IIRC, was to poach the base of the TDP in Telangana. Since CBN has been fasting against Telangana and is certain to oppose it in Parliament, I am not sure where it leaves TDP in Telangana. It is possible that the BJP is planning to grab this bunch (Rathod, MP from Adilabad, was in touch with BJP, IIRC).

What are they going to win by poaching TDP instead of INC votebank. It only makes INC sweep. Breaking non-Congress is INC strategy and BJP is implementing it with out Congress sweating out.

It is only reason TDP kept BJP out. Once they kept out 10% votebank, BJP was delluding itself, disappeared. Even some here were saying BJP got its own vote bank in Seemandhra which I told not to be the case even in 2009 elections thread.

[Shanmukh]

What are they going to win by poaching TDP instead of INC votebank. It only makes INC sweep. Breaking non-Congress is INC strategy and BJP is implementing it with out Congress sweating out.

It is only reason TDP kept BJP out. Once they kept out 10% votebank, BJP was delluding itself, disappeared. Even some here were saying BJP got its own vote bank in Seemandhra which I told not to be the case even in 2009 elections thread.

They may be able to win some MLA seats (can they even reach double digits?), if they poach the TDP votebank, ShyamSP-ji. From what I am able to gather from chatting with my BJP contacts in Karnataka, the goal is to establish themselves as the opposition this time in Telangana (they think Congress is going to win, and KCR, in an election or two, will either merge with the Congress or become irrelevant). They were trying to woo Vijayashanthi, and they want to replace the TDP in Telangana. If they can establish themselves firmly in Telangana (and they can do that if they get the TDP votebank), they believe it is possible to win in Telangana in an election or two.

[ShyamSP]

What are they going to win by poaching TDP instead of INC votebank. It only makes INC sweep. Breaking non-Congress is INC strategy and BJP is implementing it with out Congress sweating out.

It is only reason TDP kept BJP out. Once they kept out 10% votebank, BJP was delluding itself, disappeared. Even some here were saying BJP got its own vote bank in Seemandhra which I told not to be the case even in 2009 elections thread.

They may be able to win some MLA seats (can they even reach double digits?), if they poach the TDP votebank, ShyamSP-ji. From what I am able to gather from chatting with my BJP contacts in Karnataka, the goal is to establish themselves as the opposition this time in Telangana (they think Congress is going to win, and KCR, in an election or two, will either merge with the Congress or become irrelevant). They were trying to woo Vijayashanthi, and they want to replace the TDP in Telangana. If they can establish themselves firmly in Telangana (and they can do that if they get the TDP votebank), they believe it is possible to win in Telangana in an election or two.

In very recently held Panchayati (some 22000+ villages in AP) elections they won only handful in T and 1 in Seemandhra. This after 10 years of their strategy. Practically speaking, next six months is hardly enough time to win rural votes. Even in next decade they may not achieve as BJP has nothing to play in rural areas. They can do diddly-squat once they step out their traditional areas. True test to them is to win Nalgonda district steering through Reddy politics.

What they are trying to do is to show themselves tall by drawing is another smaller line next their small line.

It is also naive to think Seemandhra gives up Hyderabad for Telangana state. If T doesn't form the way they want, all these Pygmy strategies, tactics, politics are useless anyway. Congress is trying to get rid of the "sin" pot. BJP will end up holding the "sin" pot. Karma has its consequences.

[Shanmukh]

In very recently held Panchayati (some 22000+ villages in AP) elections they won only handful in T and 1 in Seemandhra. This after 10 years of their strategy. Practically speaking, next six months is hardly enough time to win rural votes. Even in next decade they may not achieve as BJP has nothing to play in rural areas. They can do diddly-squat once they step out their traditional areas. True test to them is to win Nalgonda district steering through Reddy politics.

What they are trying to do is to show themselves tall by drawing is another smaller line next their small line.

It is also naive to think Seemandhra gives up Hyderabad for Telangana state. If T doesn't form the way they want, all these Pygmy strategies, tactics, politics are useless anyway. Congress is trying to get rid of the "sin" pot. BJP will end up holding the "sin" pot. Karma has its consequences.

I did not say the BJP strategy was particularly intelligent. I am just stating what the BJP seems to be trying to do. Their belief is that they have something to play with in Telangana, and nothing at all in SeemaAndhra. Also, the BJP owes nothing to the TDP. Anywhere they can get votes from is great. From their perspective, it is better to go with Telangana, rather than become इतो भृष्ट ततो भृष्ट. Also, I suspect that the result we are seeing means that people like Rayapati Sambashiva Rao were unable to show that they could offer enough to the BJP in SeemaAndhra.

[RajeshA]

What happens if BJP doesn't support Telangana Bill which comes up probably in Budget Session, perhaps in February 2014?

What happens if BJP makes passage of Telangana Bill dependent on AP Assembly passing a resolution in its favor?

BJP can lay the blame squarely at the door of Congress saying they were not serious about bifurcation and statehood for Telangana, otherwise they would not have waited till the last moment to pass the Bill. Also they would have started building a capital city for Seemandhra a long time back. Congress has only contributed to vitiating the atmosphere in AP.

BJP can tell Telangana that if Congress could not get Telangana when it had its own government at the Center, how is it going to secure Telangana for them when they are going to be thrashed into oblivion in the coming elections? BJP is the only party which has successfully bifurcated 3 states and delivered satisfaction to all sides.

In Telangana BJP can get votes by selling Congress's insincerity and deceit. In Seemandhra BJP can ask for votes citing that they were responsible for stopping Congress from bulldozing over the wishes and interests of the Seemandhra people. There is already enough bitterness against Congress in Seemandhra.

Neither Jagan nor TDP can claim to have played any important role in stopping the bifurcation as their strength in the present Parliament is really negligible. However BJP can claim such a contribution.

In Telangana, BJP already has some presence, and they can get more support from Telangana TDP people merging with them. In Seemandhra, BJP can get well-known personalities and local leaders from other parties to fight elections on BJP symbol. They then can use their own networks to get votes, but with BJP name behind them they can also make a good case of the party having played a positive role in Seemandhra's interest.

In Telangana, BJP should go alone getting all TDP leaders there to jump into their ship. In Seemandhra, they should go into a coalition with TDP under CBN asking for one-third of the seats in Seemandhra and Rayalseema.

In Telangana, if Congress cannot deliver Telangana, TRS too would lose support as TRS would have no Telangana Plan to sell to the Telangana people. Only BJP can deliver Telangana and that too according to a BJP plan which ensures the interests of the Seemandhra people.

As things stand, I think Modi should look for Seemandhra celebrities and local leaders in the meantime. In February Modi can play this move.

[ShyamSP]

I did not say the BJP strategy was particularly intelligent. I am just stating what the BJP seems to be trying to do. Their belief is that they have something to play with in Telangana, and nothing at all in SeemaAndhra. Also, the BJP owes nothing to the TDP. Anywhere they can get votes from is great. From their perspective, it is better to go with Telangana, rather than become इतो भृष्ट ततो भृष्ट. Also, I suspect that the result we are seeing means that people like Rayapati Sambashiva Rao were unable to show that they could offer enough to the BJP in SeemaAndhra.

It is up to BJP to show Seemandhra leaders what BJP can do for them than the other way around. Rayapati can go with known devil than unknown devil. All AP leaders saw BJP back-stabbing their own hard-working leader for a few lakhs of corruption. So they have more better options than BJP.

In Seemandhra, after Jagan release as I mentioned recently things are much simpler. We have splintered Congress with TDP being in stronger position. Now, TDP needs to do keep splinter at ground-level intact so even top-level deals can achieve only small improvement at ground level for INC+YSRC.

Coming to Telangana, we only see top leaders fighting for Telangana and all are trying to poach them in the game. Congress even after announcing Telangana can't get ground-level support on its favor. It has to go put big show and beg people to notice it. Here again TDP retains its core, whether that is sufficient or not is different. It may lose a few "Reddies" (genric usage for upper caste) here and there but the other side of TDP is not going to BJP as BJP has nothing to offer. TDP is already planning to give BCs 100-150 seats to change electoral dynamics. Remember TDP just as it maintained relations with BJP also maintains with Communists, an unique characteristic that no other party has.

When push come to shove, INC and TRS go together. BJP will have to go with TDP. TDP by itself doesn't have to go with BJP as it has to explain why it is going with BJP in Seemandhra side.

[Yagnasri]

With the over confidence of T bjp leadership not willing to have any alliance with tdp, cbn may go alone. Bjp leaders in non Telangana areas with whom I have spoken seem to have made up their mind to take election expenses amounts and pocket it in full and do some drama. Why bother when you know people will spit on you face.

[ramana]

naghesks, Looks like Anantha Kumar types are directing the BJP strategy towards Andhra Pardesh.


Even 40-50 years ago the BJP strategy was to have supportless folks from Hyderabad as party leaders.
Now its root less ones.

RajeshA, It wont happen like that unless there is a sudden increase in wisdom. BJP thinks they can be second best in Telangana that is what is driving them now.

As I said before the tragedy is both national parties want ot divide Andhra Pradesh.
Modi's vist gave a hope, but seems he is hands off on this fifth prosperous state.

Anyway some positive news about AP:


CM lays foundation stone for Aviation SEZ

Chief minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy emphasised the need for giving preference to locals in employment by the industries and said that care should be taken to ensure better coordination between the managements and the workers.

Addressing a gathering after laying the foundation stone for Samuha Aerospace Park, in the Aerospace SEZ at Adibatla in Ranga Reddy district on Monday, he said the state government is laying great emphasis on industrialisation and facilitating different companies to invest in the state. Samuha Aerospace Park is being set up with an investment of Rs 1,500 crore and is expected to be grounded in two years time providing direct employment to 2,000 people and indirect employment to another 8,000.

‘’In the last three years since I became chief minister, 73 industries were invited for setting up in the state with an investment of Rs 1.35 lakh crore to provide employment to 1.53 lakh people, which are under different stages of progress,’’ he said. Elaborating further, the chief minister said the beverages major PepsiCo will set up its unit with an investment of Rs 1,500 crore in Chittoor district and confectionery giant Cadbury will also be setting up its unit in Chittoor district with an investment of Rs 2,500 crore.

World leading companies Johnson & Johnson, as well as Procter & Gamble will set up their respective units in Mahbubnagar district with Rs 500 crore investment each, while MRF Tyres will set up its unit in Medak district with an investment of Rs 900 crore. In fact, Zaheerabad of Medak is where Mahindra & Mahindra had set up the Asia’s largest tractor manufacturing unit and the state’s first cars manufacturing unit was set up by Mitsubishi Isuzu in Chittoor district, he explained.

Kiran Reddy said it was a matter of pride that components used in the space vehicle on missions like Mangalayan and several other defence equipment are manufactured in the firms at Hyderabad. He also responded positively for naming the area as Space City.

Speaking on the occasion, major industries Minister J Geeta Reddy explained how the state has become the chosen destination for the investors and how it is progressing ahead on the path of industrial development. ‘’We are proud of the fact that first and only special economic zone (SEZ) of aerospace is located in Hyderabad,’’ she said and added that Hyderabad is emerging as most sought-after destination for aviation sector and by 2020, the development will be manifold.

DRDO director general Avinash Chander, Aeronautical Society of India chairman VK Saraswat, and Samuha Engineering Industries Limited chairman P Ravindra Reddy also spoke.

[Shanmukh]

What happens if BJP doesn't support Telangana Bill which comes up probably in Budget Session, perhaps in February 2014?

What happens if BJP makes passage of Telangana Bill dependent on AP Assembly passing a resolution in its favor?

BJP can lay the blame squarely at the door of Congress saying they were not serious about bifurcation and statehood for Telangana, otherwise they would not have waited till the last moment to pass the Bill. Also they would have started building a capital city for Seemandhra a long time back. Congress has only contributed to vitiating the atmosphere in AP.

BJP can tell Telangana that if Congress could not get Telangana when it had its own government at the Center, how is it going to secure Telangana for them when they are going to be thrashed into oblivion in the coming elections? BJP is the only party which has successfully bifurcated 3 states and delivered satisfaction to all sides.

In Telangana BJP can get votes by selling Congress's insincerity and deceit. In Seemandhra BJP can ask for votes citing that they were responsible for stopping Congress from bulldozing over the wishes and interests of the Seemandhra people. There is already enough bitterness against Congress in Seemandhra.

Neither Jagan nor TDP can claim to have played any important role in stopping the bifurcation as their strength in the present Parliament is really negligible. However BJP can claim such a contribution.

In Telangana, BJP already has some presence, and they can get more support from Telangana TDP people merging with them. In Seemandhra, BJP can get well-known personalities and local leaders from other parties to fight elections on BJP symbol. They then can use their own networks to get votes, but with BJP name behind them they can also make a good case of the party having played a positive role in Seemandhra's interest.

In Telangana, BJP should go alone getting all TDP leaders there to jump into their ship. In Seemandhra, they should go into a coalition with TDP under CBN asking for one-third of the seats in Seemandhra and Rayalseema.

In Telangana, if Congress cannot deliver Telangana, TRS too would lose support as TRS would have no Telangana Plan to sell to the Telangana people. Only BJP can deliver Telangana and that too according to a BJP plan which ensures the interests of the Seemandhra people.

As things stand, I think Modi should look for Seemandhra celebrities and local leaders in the meantime. In February Modi can play this move.

RajeshA-ji,
I suggested something very similar to what you are suggesting earlier in this thread. But the BJP seems to have succumbed to the persuasions of the party's Telangana leaders.

[Shanmukh]

I did not say the BJP strategy was particularly intelligent. I am just stating what the BJP seems to be trying to do. Their belief is that they have something to play with in Telangana, and nothing at all in SeemaAndhra. Also, the BJP owes nothing to the TDP. Anywhere they can get votes from is great. From their perspective, it is better to go with Telangana, rather than become इतो भृष्ट ततो भृष्ट. Also, I suspect that the result we are seeing means that people like Rayapati Sambashiva Rao were unable to show that they could offer enough to the BJP in SeemaAndhra.

It is up to BJP to show Seemandhra leaders what BJP can do for them than the other way around. Rayapati can go with known devil than unknown devil. All AP leaders saw BJP back-stabbing their own hard-working leader for a few lakhs of corruption. So they have more better options than BJP.

Erm - ShyamSP-ji,
I would say it is a two way thing, at the very least. If the BJP opposes Telangana in Parliament (for whatever reasons), they are certain to run into trouble with their own state unit, and some members of their own state unit (such as it is) could very well leave, saying the BJP betrayed them. Unless there is enough payoff for the BJP to play such a high risk game, there would be no reason for the BJP to do it. The numbers game is also extremely delicately balanced. Unless enough SeemaAndhra Congress members revolt, the BJP cannot stop the Congress from steamrolling opposition in the Parliament and forming Telangana on its own. The BJP, as of today, has practically nothing of value in the SeemaAndhra, while they have something in Telangana. if the BJP is not convinced that it is going to gain much in SeemaAndhra to offset its losses in Telangana, then it has no reason to risk everything it has in Telangana.

As I said, if Rayapati and his cohorts can offer the BJP something solid (say 5 sitting MPs) in return for the political risks they are taking in Telangana, then the BJP might well be tempted to play the dangerous game.

As it is, there is nothing SeemaAndhra leaders can do to stop the division of the state (neither the TDP, nor the rebellious Congressmen, nor the YSR Congress can stop the division of the state). The only power that can do so is the BJP (at least, the BJP can put up a spirited fight against the proposed division). So - should there not be some payoff for the BJP to take the risks it will inevitably be taking? No - an alliance with the TDP is not worthwhile. Experience shows that the TDP is unreliable. The BJP should waste no sympathy on TDP. In fact, every party that can be broken to bolster the strength of the BJP is welcome. So - yes - the BJP should work on a palace coup in the SeemaAndhra Congress, and then, build its own base.

In Seemandhra, after Jagan release as I mentioned recently things are much simpler. We have splintered Congress with TDP being in stronger position. Now, TDP needs to do keep splinter at ground-level intact so even top-level deals can achieve only small improvement at ground level for INC+YSRC.

You are assuming that there will be enough of a Congress left in SeemaAndhra to split the YSR Congress vote. Not sure that it will materialise. It is very likely that the entire SeemaAndhra Congress will gravitate to YSR Congress, unless the BJP breaks it, and takes some of its cadre with it. Otherwise, you will be facing the old Congress under a new name. The Congress leaders have been fighting the TDP for 20+ years now. They cannot go to TDP easily. But they can go with BJP, since BJP has no baggage associated with it. Unless the BJP takes some of the old Congress with it, there is no real bonus for the TDP.

Coming to Telangana, we only see top leaders fighting for Telangana and all are trying to poach them in the game. Congress even after announcing Telangana can't get ground-level support on its favor. It has to go put big show and beg people to notice it. Here again TDP retains its core,

Exactly? The other side of the TDP is willing to oppose the formation of Telangana and stay on in TDP? They are all going to risk their political futures to stay with the TDP - out of what loyalties?

[RajeshA]

RajeshA, It wont happen like that unless there is a sudden increase in wisdom. BJP thinks they can be second best in Telangana that is what is driving them now.

RajeshA-ji,
I suggested something very similar to what you are suggesting earlier in this thread. But the BJP seems to have succumbed to the persuasions of the party's Telangana leaders.

Telangana leaders should understand that the only way they can get seats in Telangana in name of Telangana separatism is if they prove that both Congress and TRS are either insincere or are impotent to live up to their promise of Telangana.

Actually Congress has gone a long way in term of promises and giving hope, and if they fail despite all that, there is going to be a HUGE KLPD disappointment for Telanganas!

And then BJP Telangana leaders should start ridiculing TRS and Congress, publicly slapping them left and right for giving people false hope, being insincere, being muddled, being juvenile and basically causing distress to people all across AP, playing with their hopes and lives.

Telangana can fall in BJP's hands because BJP stands there as the only party which stands there with its chaddi on!

Giving in on Telangana Bill would be BJP allowing Congress to show its strength!

[Shanmukh]

naghesks, Looks like Anantha Kumar types are directing the BJP strategy towards Andhra Pardesh.


Even 40-50 years ago the BJP strategy was to have supportless folks from Hyderabad as party leaders.
Now its root less ones.

Shrug - it is very conservative strategy on part of the BJP. But the fact remains that they have no real stakes to play for in SeemaAndhra. Exactly why would they try to stop the division? The SeemaAndhra region has nothing at stake for the BJP now. If they had any real stakes to play for, they might well do it. But as of now, they risk annoying their Telangana base (what little they have) for absolutely nothing to recompense them in SeemaAndhra. They believe they will benefit in Telangana from the death of the TDP in the region. Also, there is a huge resistance to the alliance with TDP (they had done nothing to merit his betrayal post 2004, and they are very averse to allying with him now).

[devesh]

there is a lot of circular reasoning going on.

I'm going to try to cut the BS and go with short bullet points:

1. BJP has no base in AP, of its own. it had a decent base in Telangana, but squandered it by letting TDP dictate terms in 1998-99

2. since then, BJP has exited the electoral scene and hasn't yet made a comeback.

3. regardless of whether BJP supports or doesn't support Telangana, BJP has no base in Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and will not win a single seat there (except Venkiah Naidu).

4. even if BJP hadn't supported Telangana, the Coastal elites never showed any interest in BJP other than the TDP guys who just used BJP to get the backing of a national power.


the gist: supporting or not supporting Telangana will do nothing to improve BJP's chances in Coastal areas. BJP never existed there. even after it gave up on Telangana due to coalition dharma, BJP remained a big zero. worse still, they lost whatever they had in Telangana.

in T, the people who were most enthusiastic about BJP were non-R/non-V sections who had risen to a level of prominence only in the 20th century. and also some sections of BC's.

If T happens (which is still a big IF), both INC and TRS will break into factions. there will be some V vs R fighting. so, there are some obvious plays which can be exploited by the former BJP base to recast the BJP and take control in that region.

but all depends on whether division happens or not.

if division doesn't happen, then there is always the added burden of wondering which section the coastal money will pump into. this keeps the T politics from ever truly finding an expression that is based on ideology and commitment. instead, it's a useless see-saw between INC and TDP. in the case of INC, they will never allow any genuine movement which could hurt the interests of the feudal class which survived intact. in the TDP's case, anything that hurts or could potentially hurt the flow of money and continued expansion of respective business empires, is considered a bad thing. at least, that's how the existing elites are thinking. it remains to be seen if the rising generations are continuing in the same path or whether they will look for an alternative.

[devesh]

-double post--

[ShyamSP]

Shrug - it is very conservative strategy on part of the BJP. But the fact remains that they have no real stakes to play for in SeemaAndhra. Exactly why would they try to stop the division? The SeemaAndhra region has nothing at stake for the BJP now. If they had any real stakes to play for, they might well do it. But as of now, they risk annoying their Telangana base (what little they have) for absolutely nothing to recompense them in SeemaAndhra. They believe they will benefit in Telangana from the death of the TDP in the region. Also, there is a huge resistance to the alliance with TDP (they had done nothing to merit his betrayal post 2004, and they are very averse to allying with him now).

India is not Unitary state Central government to overrule AP state and split it because Congress gets so many seats and BJP gets some seats in Telangana. Power abuse and broken federal spirit will have its consequences. If Telugus declare Independence that India is no longer follow Federal system as per its constitution. What is recourse? Civil war?

Everything they do if AP state doesn't agree, is against all commissions and what supreme courts said on Center-state relations. They are not following even Sri Krishna commission instituted for this purpose. Powers given to Center is for good use and not for bad use. We already have seen how Central power to dismiss states got curtailed by courts.

If BJP and Congress want to ruin country to get seats, let them. It will collapse both BJP and Congress. Eventually, national parties will have to come to negotiating table to do anything with AP. You can't have say "screw you" to the other region people and take away their eating bowl and go against country's motto 'Satyam eva Jayate'. Natural justice will prevail.

[devesh]

Kishan is playing his own game. as I said before, he thinks he can be the new Madhava Reddy. I doubt he has that caliber.

but he should keep in mind that Sangh is involved in future course direction, now. so he should be careful. his position as BJP Pres is not as cemented as he thinks. if he wants to survive, he has no option but to bring in some people belonging to sections of the population that will put-off his "Reddy" instinct.

if he can manage the first round of that broadening, he will survive for a while, and get some credit for building up BJP.

but if he doesn't put aside his "instinct", he'll still be MLA, but his leadership will be in jeopardy. that's for sure.

[Shanmukh]

Shrug - it is very conservative strategy on part of the BJP. But the fact remains that they have no real stakes to play for in SeemaAndhra. Exactly why would they try to stop the division? The SeemaAndhra region has nothing at stake for the BJP now. If they had any real stakes to play for, they might well do it. But as of now, they risk annoying their Telangana base (what little they have) for absolutely nothing to recompense them in SeemaAndhra. They believe they will benefit in Telangana from the death of the TDP in the region. Also, there is a huge resistance to the alliance with TDP (they had done nothing to merit his betrayal post 2004, and they are very averse to allying with him now).

India is not Unitary state Central government to overrule AP state and split it because Congress gets so many seats and BJP gets some seats in Telangana.

Maybe you should tell your SeemaAndhra MPs and MLAs to actually start negotiating with the one party (BJP) that has the power to prevent the split of Andhra. Your `I will give you nothing, but I want you to do what I tell you to' is not a basis for any agreement. Nor is `I will come to you when I need you, but will kick you the moment I don't' (which is what the TDP did) a basis for any concord. SeemaAndhra elected the Congress, that has now double crossed it. Well - hold the Congress to account for it. What has the BJP got to do with it? The BJP does not represent SeemaAndhra (they have not a single MLA or MP from the region). It has no reason to care about SeemaAndhra interests, as of now.

[ShyamSP]

Erm - ShyamSP-ji,
I would say it is a two way thing, at the very least. If the BJP opposes Telangana in Parliament (for whatever reasons), they are certain to run into trouble with their own state unit, and some members of their own state unit (such as it is) could very well leave, saying the BJP betrayed them. Unless there is enough payoff for the BJP to play such a high risk game, there would be no reason for the BJP to do it. The numbers game is also extremely delicately balanced. Unless enough SeemaAndhra Congress members revolt, the BJP cannot stop the Congress from steamrolling opposition in the Parliament and forming Telangana on its own. The BJP, as of today, has practically nothing of value in the SeemaAndhra, while they have something in Telangana. if the BJP is not convinced that it is going to gain much in SeemaAndhra to offset its losses in Telangana, then it has no reason to risk everything it has in Telangana.

As I said, if Rayapati and his cohorts can offer the BJP something solid (say 5 sitting MPs) in return for the political risks they are taking in Telangana, then the BJP might well be tempted to play the dangerous game.

Playing divisive politics and gaining some seats may have advantage short-term but it will have consequences. What if AP leaders sponsor campaigns against it, is BJP fine with it? If you stab a guy, expect the guy to stab you and get taste of factionism.

If Rayapati can offer something solid like 5 MPs, even Congress will be after him.

As it is, there is nothing SeemaAndhra leaders can do to stop the division of the state (neither the TDP, nor the rebellious Congressmen, nor the YSR Congress can stop the division of the state). The only power that can do so is the BJP (at least, the BJP can put up a spirited fight against the proposed division). So - should there not be some payoff for the BJP to take the risks it will inevitably be taking? No - an alliance with the TDP is not worthwhile. Experience shows that the TDP is unreliable. The BJP should waste no sympathy on TDP. In fact, every party that can be broken to bolster the strength of the BJP is welcome. So - yes - the BJP should work on a palace coup in the SeemaAndhra Congress, and then, build its own base.

One thing they are doing is forcing Center and Central parties to do Kalisthan/Kashmir in AP and making BJP equally corrupt as Congress.

You are assuming that there will be enough of a Congress left in SeemaAndhra to split the YSR Congress vote. Not sure that it will materialise. It is very likely that the entire SeemaAndhra Congress will gravitate to YSR Congress, unless the BJP breaks it, and takes some of its cadre with it. Otherwise, you will be facing the old Congress under a new name. The Congress leaders have been fighting the TDP for 20+ years now. They cannot go to TDP easily. But they can go with BJP, since BJP has no baggage associated with it. Unless the BJP takes some of the old Congress with it, there is no real bonus for the TDP.

Not all Congress is YSR-friendly. There will be United AP Congress left. BJP breaks it? They can do diddly-squat and gain diddly-squat in non-T.

YSRC and INC split is in the interest of TDP. There are certain moves TDP can do (I think is already doing) in this regard.

Exactly? The other side of the TDP is willing to oppose the formation of Telangana and stay on in TDP? They are all going to risk their political futures to stay with the TDP - out of what loyalties?

Two sides exist in all parties and two sides understand that while accusing each other, some times for the sake of drama. All parties recognized that and acting on it, except for BJP so far.

As for TDP, it is at better place due to its neutral stand. Other than political accusation by INC, TRS, and YSRC in TVs and media, people are comfortable with its position.

[RajeshA]

I have a couple of queries for AP Gurus:

1) What happens when TRS + Congress cannot deliver Telangana to the Telangana people in this Legislative Period?

2) What happens when some party, let's say, other than Jagan's YSRCP and CBN's TDP contributes more to stopping the bifurcation than these two impotents, especially as Bifurcation is main issue in Andhra Pradesh?

TIA

[Shanmukh]

Playing divisive politics and gaining some seats may have advantage short-term but it will have consequences. What if AP leaders sponsor campaigns against it, is BJP fine with it?

They have been doing it all along. Plenty of the Congress money for anti-BJP campaigns came from AP. Your threats are going to make the BJP shudder, I am sure.

If you stab a guy, expect the guy to stab you and get taste of factionism.

What should CBN get for backstabbing the BJP?

If Rayapati can offer something solid like 5 MPs, even Congress will be after him.

There are 19 Congress MPs in SeemaAndhra and all of them are outraged. So - why can't they force their own high command to listen to them? And why will the Congress be after Rayapati if he can offer them 5 MPs when they don't care about the 19 in SeemaAndhra?

One thing they are doing is forcing Center and Central parties to do Kalisthan/Kashmir in AP and making BJP equally corrupt as Congress.

Interesting how easily our AP friends start tossing around words like Khalistan and Kashmir. You are aware of the price paid by both Punjab and Kashmir, yes? And is SeemaAndhra obsessed with posthumous vengeance?

Not all Congress is YSR-friendly. There will be United AP Congress left. BJP breaks it? They can do diddly-squat and gain diddly-squat in non-T.

YSRC and INC split is in the interest of TDP. There are certain moves TDP can do (I think is already doing) in this regard.

So - it is in the interest of the TDP to let the region be bifurcated. And all this drama and breast beating is just for our benefit? What are you complaining about then?

As for TDP, it is at better place due to its neutral stand. Other than political accusation by INC, TRS, and YSRC in TVs and media, people are comfortable with its position.

Neutral stand?! CBN is fasting against the formation of Telangana, and that is neutral? Maybe the BJP can just stand back and let the bill pass on its own? Oppose it in debate, but not in votes? Would that be a neutral enough stand to mollify you?

[Shanmukh]

I have a couple of queries for AP Gurus:

1) What happens when TRS + Congress cannot deliver Telangana to the Telangana people in this Legislative Period?

2) What happens when some party, let's say, other than Jagan's YSRCP and CBN's TDP contributes more to stopping the bifurcation than these two impotents, especially as Bifurcation is main issue in Andhra Pradesh?

TIA

RajeshA-ji,
I cannot answer the first question, but as for the second question, if the division does not happen courtesy the BJP (realistically, that is the only party capable of stopping the division), the wisdom of our current gurus seems to be that the BJP should bow over to CBN and hand over all of Andhra to him on a platter. It should then expect CBN to betray the BJP and go with the third front, fourth front or the twenty fourth front, or, if he is forced to ally, then the BJP should leave all the 25 parliament and 175 Assembly seats in SeemaAndhra to him, so that he can betray the BJP at the appropriate time. The BJP should not harbour any ill will to CBN. whatever he does, because CBN is above all other mortals.

[ShyamSP]

What should CBN get for backstabbing the BJP?

We can also interpret that BJP back-stabbed TDP once NDA government fell.

There was deal to give out side support to NDA, TDP and BJP agreed. TDP supported full term and later went their own way. You can't expect TDP to be just subordinate to BJP.

They are independent parties. That statement is nothing but arrogant.

Interesting how easily our AP friends start tossing around words like Khalistan and Kashmir. You are aware of the price paid by both Punjab and Kashmir, yes? And is SeemaAndhra obsessed with posthumous vengeance?

If BJP and Congress are showing vengence towards Seemandhra. It is quite natural to expect reciprocation. Nothing more.

Neutral stand?! CBN is fasting against the formation of Telangana, and that is neutral? Maybe the BJP can just stand back and let the bill pass on its own? Oppose it in debate, but not in votes? Would that be a neutral enough stand to mollify you?

CBN didn't not against formation of Telangana. Where did you get it? Go back and check your media sources and their biases in presenting.

[Shanmukh]

What should CBN get for backstabbing the BJP?

We can also interpret that BJP back-stabbed TDP once NDA government fell.

May I ask how the BJP backstabbed TDP? TDP was not expelled from NDA, CBN left it of its own volition, accusing the BJP of losing him the minority vote, being anti-secular and what not, and was running from it as fast as he could. And you have the nerve to accuse the BJP of betraying him, when the BJP has done nothing at all against him. It is no wonder the BJP wants nothing to do with CBN or his partymen now.

There was deal to give out side support to NDA, TDP and BJP agreed. TDP supported full term and later went their own way. You can't expect TDP to be just subordinate to BJP.

They are independent parties. That statement is nothing but arrogant.

And yet, you now protest that the BJP should stop the division of AP, when it has no reason to do so. That is not arrogant?

Interesting how easily our AP friends start tossing around words like Khalistan and Kashmir. You are aware of the price paid by both Punjab and Kashmir, yes? And is SeemaAndhra obsessed with posthumous vengeance?

If BJP and Congress are showing vengence towards Seemandhra. It is quite natural to expect reciprocation. Nothing more.

BJP is showing neither vengeance towards SeemaAndhra nor its benevolence. BJP has representatives from Telangana, not from SeemaAndhra. The BJP has a reason to care about Telangana, not SeemaAndhra. It is you who is demanding that the BJP stop the division of Andhra, and take up the cause of SeemaAndhra. Why should it? What reason has it?

Neutral stand?! CBN is fasting against the formation of Telangana, and that is neutral? Maybe the BJP can just stand back and let the bill pass on its own? Oppose it in debate, but not in votes? Would that be a neutral enough stand to mollify you?

CBN didn't not against formation of Telangana. Where did you get it? Go back and check your media sources and their biases in presenting.

He is protesting against the formation of the Telangana in its present form. If he is not against the formation of the Telangana in its present form, he should stop the dramabazee.

And in all this, I note how you are cleverly leaving out what the BJP can get for supporting the SeemaAndhra interests. Maybe you should get your MLAs/MPs to put something on the table for the BJP.

[ShyamSP]

May I ask how the BJP backstabbed TDP? TDP was not expelled from NDA, CBN left it of its own volition, accusing the BJP of losing him the minority vote, being anti-secular and what not, and was running from it as fast as he could. And you have the nerve to accuse the BJP of betraying him, when the BJP has done nothing at all against him. It is no wonder the BJP wants nothing to do with CBN or his partymen now.

If you had put CBN wrongly accused BJP, I'd have agreed to it. Back-stabbing? They joined for political interests but when those political interests didn't match, they seperated. Nothing back-stabbing there. If you say one party back-stabbded, we can also equally interpret as other party back-stabbed too.

BJP was doing some smart-ass activities to poach on TDP votebank during the alliance time. So TDP didn't like it. Besides BJP also raked up T-issue which was against the spirit of alliance at the time. BJP was chum and innocent is not true.

BJP is showing neither vengeance towards SeemaAndhra nor its benevolence. BJP has representatives from Telangana, not from SeemaAndhra. The BJP has a reason to care about Telangana, not SeemaAndhra. It is you who is demanding that the BJP stop the division of Andhra, and take up the cause of SeemaAndhra. Why should it? What reason has it?

What I'm demanding? Am I engaged with them to demand? I only analyze and it is neither against/for/neutral to BJP, TDP, or any parties. I see issues I point out. I don't agree to your points I refute.

If BJP wants to put themselves in the level of TRS, I already told they can. If they do bad stuff in AP like that and some other place they proclaim tall claims, I can refute. This is freedom and is accordance with BRF rules.

He is protesting against the formation of the Telangana in its present form. If he is not against the formation of the Telangana in its present form, he should stop the dramabazee.

And in all this, I note how you are cleverly leaving out what the BJP can get for supporting the SeemaAndhra interests. Maybe you should get your MLAs/MPs to put something on the table for the BJP.

TDP stated their position on bifurcation. They protested because those terms are not being done. There is no reason to agree to INC way of doing which INC's own member don't agree also leave alone TDP.

[Muppalla]

It is hilarious to hear that BJP back stabbed by CBN. He is the only guy who went with pre-poll alliance with BJP when BJP was ruling. BJP is a party in AP without based including Telangana. It is a party just in and around Hyderabad and that is the bottomline. I am big supporter of BJP rain or shine and split of no-split but analysis needs some realistic baseline.

[ramana]

BJP could be uding reverse psychology in AP. Its simed at INC.

[Shanmukh]

It is hilarious to hear that BJP back stabbed by CBN. He is the only guy who went with pre-poll alliance with BJP when BJP was ruling. BJP is a party in AP without based including Telangana. It is a party just in and around Hyderabad and that is the bottomline. I am big supporter of BJP rain or shine and split of no-split but analysis needs some realistic baseline.

Muppalla-ji,
In the normal course of the events, I would agree with you about the BJP in Andhra. But the context in which CBN went with a pre-poll alliance with BJP was very different. The BJP, in 1998 Lok Sabha elections, had secured 18.80% of the popular vote in Andhra Pradesh (contesting 38 of the 42 seats), and won 4 Lok Sabha seats. I have listed below the votes secured in the seats they contested, along with the percentage of the votes they had, and you can compute for yourself whether BJP was the non-entity in 1999, when CBN went in an alliance with the BJP. You can cross check what I have written with the election commission reports for the Lok Sabha elections 1998.

1) Bobbili - BJP 105959 15.55% (3rd spot).
2) Vishakhapatnam - BJP 195452 21.96% (3rd spot)
3) Anakapalli - BJP -114360 15.62% (3rd spot)
4) Kakinada - BJP - 330381 41.06% (winner) U V Krishnam Raju
5) Rajamahendry - BJP 285741 36.57% (winner) Girajala Venkata Swamy Naidu
6) Amalapuram - BJP 172301 26.16% (3rd place)
7) Narasapur - BJP 33311 4.58% (3rd place)
8 ) Eluru - BJP 52113 6.45% (3rd place)
9) Machchilipatnam - BJP 58012 8.38% (3rd place)
10) Vijayawada - BJP 104630 11.63% (3rd place)
11) Tenali - BJP 59547 9.52% (3rd place)
12) Guntur - BJP 82193 10.93% (3rd place)
13) Bapatla - BJP 66914 9.99% (3rd place)
14) Narasaraopet - BJP 40452 5.41% (3rd place)
15) Ongole - BJP 25580 3.48% (3rd place)
16) Nellore - BJP 175074 23.63% (3rd place)
17) Tirupathi - BJP 178773 23.84% (3rd place)
18) Chittoor - BJP 147861 19.08% (3rd place)
19) Rajampet - BJP 94311 15.56% (3rd place)
20) Cuddapah - BJP 28349 3.83% (3rd place)
21) Hindupur - BJP 108394 16.47% (3rd place)
22) Anantpur - BJP 93339 13.88% (3rd place)
23) Kurnool - BJP 17446 2.32% (3rd place)
24) Nandyal - BJP 18841 2.70% (3rd place)
25) Nagarkurnool - BJP 125201 16.29% (3rd place)
26) Mahabubnagar - BJP 206834 27.69% (3rd place)
27) Hyderabad - BJP 414173 38.07% (2nd place)
28) Secunderabad - BJP 438586 49.02% (winner) Bandaru Dattatreya
29) Siddipet - BJP 292778 29.69% (3rd place)
30) Medak - BJP 252642 32.03% (2nd place)
31) Nizamabad - BJP 249095 34.00% (2nd place)
32) Adilabad - BJP 179134 24.29% (3rd place)
33) Peddapalli - BJP 158979 19.56% (3rd place)
34) Karimnagar - BJP 329030 42.83% (winner) Chennamaneni Vidyasagar Rao
35) Warangal - BJP 108942 13.97% (3rd place)
36) Khammam - BJP 117926 13.07% (3rd place)
37) Nalagonda - BJP 274174 30.62% (3rd place)
38) Miryalguda - BJP 99566 11.64% (3rd place)

By the way, this does not include the vote garnered by Appayya Dora Hanumanthu in Srikakulam (he was placed second, winning some 2 lakh votes).

Brutally analysing the data above, we can see that the BJP won 2 seats of the 17 in Telangana, was placed second in 3 more, and scored more than 20% of the vote in 4 more seats. Simply put, the BJP was in the contest for victory in 9 of the 17 constituencies in Telangana.

They won 2 seats in North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and scored more than 20% of the vote in 1 more (2 if you include the independent they supported).

They scored more than 20% of the vote in 2 constituencies in Rayalseema.

In short, the BJP had three areas of strength in Andhra. Telangana, north coastal Andhra Pradesh (Andhra north of the Godavari), and the south eastern corner of Rayalseema.

Between 1998 and 1999, the BJP actually grew, netting some powerful leaders like Vijayashanthi (she joined BJP in 1999), and Appayya Dora Hanumanthu (joined BJP in 1999, but left when BJP allied with CBN). This was the situation in which CBN sought the alliance with the BJP. And in the 5 years of the alliance, the BJP was totally destroyed in Andhra Pradesh. They lost most of their Telangana leaders to the TRS (Vijayashanthi, Ale Narendra, etc), and their northern leaders were poached off by CBN (Mudragada Padmanabham) and Congress (Appayya Dora Hanumanthu).

The idea that CBN allied with the BJP when the BJP was a marginal party is wholly false. It is no wonder that the BJP is totally opposed to any alliance with CBN today.

I am all for criticising the BJP when they do things wrong, but I wish people really understood the context in which CBN allied the BJP and what the consequences for the BJP were. The simple truth is that CBN allied the BJP the moment they had something to offer, and threw them out the moment they were down.

[Yagnasri]

Sorry Ramana sir, I don't understand you post

[Shanmukh]

If you had put CBN wrongly accused BJP, I'd have agreed to it. Back-stabbing? They joined for political interests but when those political interests didn't match, they seperated. Nothing back-stabbing there. If you say one party back-stabbded, we can also equally interpret as other party back-stabbed too.

We are getting into Clinton-esque terminology here (tried marijuana, but didn't inhale it). Leaving an alliance on false pretences is backstabbing.

BJP was doing some smart-ass activities to poach on TDP votebank during the alliance time. So TDP didn't like it. Besides BJP also raked up T-issue which was against the spirit of alliance at the time. BJP was chum and innocent is not true.

Dude - it was the other way round. It was the TDP that grabbed BJP leaders when they were in alliance (Mudragada Padmanabham ring a bell?). And Telangana? The BJP lost all its Telangana leaders of consequence because they allied with CBN.

What I'm demanding? Am I engaged with them to demand? I only analyze and it is neither against/for/neutral to BJP, TDP, or any parties. I see issues I point out. I don't agree to your points I refute.

Here is a quote by you

If BJP and Congress want to ruin country to get seats, let them. It will collapse both BJP and Congress. Eventually, national parties will have to come to negotiating table to do anything with AP. You can't have say "screw you" to the other region people
and take away their eating bowl and go against country's motto 'Satyam eva Jayate'. Natural justice will prevail.

It is very clear that you imply
1) Breaking Andhra Pradesh into Telangana and Seema Andhra is `ruining the country'.
2) That SeemaAndhra has the whip hand and is negotiating from a position of strength, since other parties have to come to it.
3) That splitting Telangana from Andhra Pradesh is `taking away the eating bowl from SeemaAndhra'.

From the above three implications, it is very clear that stopping the split of the state is vital to the interests of SeemaAndhra. While your second statement seems to imply that Congress and BJP have to come to SeemaAndhra to do anything with AP, it is very clear that the Congress and the BJP together have the ability to take away the SeemaAndhra people's eating bowl (third statement) and ruin them economically. Is it not, then, in the SeemaAndhra interest to negotiate with the one party (BJP) that has the ability to stop the split? When one has such vital interests at stake, as evidenced from your statement, one should be willing to go over to the people who can actually help and offer them something for their aid. Which is what I asked - what are the SeemaAndhra people willing to do for the BJP in return. No aid comes for free. I hope you realise that. There is a further problem. The BJP, having no elected representatives in SeemaAndhra, has no locus standi to argue on behalf of the people of SeemaAndhra. It is for the people of SeemaAndhra to provide the BJP that locus standi.

If BJP wants to put themselves in the level of TRS, I already told they can. If they do bad stuff in AP like that and some other place they proclaim tall claims, I can refute. This is freedom and is accordance with BRF rules..

The level of TRS is arguable, and the level of TDP and YSRCP just as much arguable. Freedom and BRF rules apart, it is in the interest of SeemaAndhra to negotiate with the BJP. If they do not want to negotiate with the people who can actually help, they have only themselves to blame. When one is in trouble, one goes looking for help, not the other way round.

[Yagnasri]

It is also to be noted 1990s are Vajpayee time and Ramayana Janmabhumi mobilisation period. BJp was growing on the back of all these things. Bjp was perceived as party of honest people and enjoyed great goodwill. Once you sacrificed Ramayana Janmabhumi after coming to power the support is gone. Bjp has no ideas to sell. We faced serious questions from our voters who openly saying why temple was not constructed? Why bjp abandoned the movement. The common Hindus in south or even in UP never forgiven bjp for this. But for NM bjp has very lititle to offer even now. Bjp wins in some states because they have good local CMs there. Not because of Hindu votes. Even here other leaders are as bad as congress.

Loss of ideological basis is damaging with educated voters, particularly when voters have other alternatives. Do you think we could have gone to voters on temple issue in 2004?.

Votes in 1990s have come for a bjp which is Hindu party. After NDA there is no Hindu party. Even NM gets support as Hindu leader. If he plays secular games he will lose in a big way.

[devesh]

nageshks ji,

you have simplified the noise and extracted the essence.

in short, BJP's naive thinking utterly destroyed them. their position in AP was headed in the same direction as that of Karnataka.

I said this about 20 pages ago, and repeated several times over the course of the thread: there are significant voices within BJP (both State and Central, and also the Sangh) who believe that any alliance with TDP should only be entered into after extracting meaningful concessions.

if TDP wants to be relevant, they have only one path. compromise.

[devesh]

this is what people are not realizing: before constructing magical castles of how TDP is going to sweep 2014 because of public anger, please understand the dynamics!!

INC is not as dead as we like to believe. yes, even in Coastal Andhra, INC IS STILL ALIVE AND KICKING. they will not be thrown out that easily.

and there is Jagan. who will cut heavily into both TDP and INC. TDP needs all it can get. any other party which cuts into TDP drastically reduces their chances. it's not fair. it's a rigged game. but that's the reality. TDP simply cannot afford anybody cutting into their votes. even 1% diversion will be costly.

also, at this point, if division doesn't happen, and AP elections happen under united AP in 2014, are all of you realizing that TDP has no chance of coming to power at all???

folks, I don't know if anybody realizes this yet: TDP has essentially been checkmated. if they want to come to power, their only hope is to contest in Seemandhra State. in AP of current form, TDP cannot win in 2014. the mathematics of the challenge are insurmountable. they have the combined forces of the INC+YSRC+TRS eating into their votes.

as I've already said, the vast majority of the 117 Telangana seats will go to INC+TRS+MIM+Left.

assuming TDP can still win 10 seats in Telangana, that leaves about 138 seats more that TDP needs, to gain a majority. where exactly is TDP going to get them from?

unless TDP can win 138 out of the 177 seats in Seemandhra, they are not coming to power on their own.

let's be more optimistic and say they win 25 seats in Telangana. even in that scenario, that leaves them with 123 seats out of 177 seats in Seemandhra.

Now, after looking at those numbers, who here on BRF believes that TDP is negotiating from a position of strength ?!?!

so, in the final analysis, BJP does have the upper hand. they have the Modi wave of energy. they are a national party, with absolutely nothing to loose in Andhra Pradesh (whatever they had, they lost due to serious blundering 15 years ago).

and the guys here want to believe that BJP is at the mercy of TDP.

[ramana]

The 1998 Vizag contestant was former mayor of that city.

[Muppalla]

Between 1998 and 1999, the BJP actually grew, netting some powerful leaders like Vijayashanthi (she joined BJP in 1999), and Appayya Dora Hanumanthu (joined BJP in 1999, but left when BJP allied with CBN). This was the situation in which CBN sought the alliance with the BJP. And in the 5 years of the alliance, the BJP was totally destroyed in Andhra Pradesh. They lost most of their Telangana leaders to the TRS (Vijayashanthi, Ale Narendra, etc), and their northern leaders were poached off by CBN (Mudragada Padmanabham) and Congress (Appayya Dora Hanumanthu).

few things here.
(1) Rhetorically speaking one can easily say they should have not gone with CBN and has lived with instability at center. But that argument is a bad argument. They bought a lot of stability.

(2) All that votes in 1998 did BJP get due to ideology or caste breakdown? This is also a favorite topic from Devesh garu . So suddenly one fine morning the culture less coastal folks became Hindutva vaadis? Or in a decade after that all the non-T folks are now Christians? Why did BJP got so many votes in 1998?

Easier punch bag is CBN as though he plotted the demise of BJP. The truth could be something else. The Congress party grew on Reddys, SCs, STs and minorities. The TDP grew on Kammas and OBCs. There are some more forward castes such as kapus who want to break out of this logjam by opposing both Reddys and Kammas. This is what BJP started building (not ideology) but when you go in coalition with TDP that vigor got diluted. It did not lose because of dilution or any plot by TDP. It lost 2004 along with TDP due to AP's anti-incumbency. In 2009 it has decided to be a Telangana party and in addition its budding votebank was captured by Chiranjeevi. Since then it is just a Telangana party.

It could have tried in the coastal space without getting too cozy on Telangana platform if the leadership tried to get the middle castes of non-T regions. Building a party with coalition of communities is not easy but you have to sustain it without short cuts. (In KA before BJP formed government BJP sustained in election after election.) However, when everyone is playing dramas, it went hand-in-hand with TRS only to be backstabbed by them. As compared to T, one advantage in non-T region is if you keep the mahabalis (the one with caste following and money) you can grow easily. This is a capture and go model. Congress, Jagan, TDP are big because of such local satraps. Being a national party trying such biz folks is not difficult. You throw some bread crumbs they will even pass "India for hindus and everyone else second class citizens" type bills also. There are several there with just commercial interests and ideology is not an issue for those. These folks can sustain a lot of T-politics too.

Now the game is over. The things that BJP is looking is very different. They want to just get over with the state split. They are hoping to see TDP does not exist if the split occurs and take over that space in T region to become a viable alternative. Regarding coastal areas if INC at national level goes down after a while the anger dies down too. A lot of biz tycoons cannot live in sidelines and they will need central space anyway and will come around at BJP's terms. This story is not a helpful story for 2014. May be for 2019.

This is where they don't want to jump with TDP (not because they got ditched in the past). They have to wait and see what are the final INC games and also what are the constitutional junk that could stop the finality on split. Not getting state split in a swift mode only helps TRS and no one else.

[Muppalla]

nageshks ji, mudragada is not just BJP as he has several father. He was in TDP, after Ranga's death, he went to INC and NTR lost. He came back to TDP and lost before he joined BJP and later again to TDP. You are bringing leaders who are not in one place anytime. He is a very close relative to my dad's close friend.

[ShyamSP]

Here is a quote by you

If BJP and Congress want to ruin country to get seats, let them. It will collapse both BJP and Congress. Eventually, national parties will have to come to negotiating table to do anything with AP. You can't have say "screw you" to the other region people
and take away their eating bowl and go against country's motto 'Satyam eva Jayate'. Natural justice will prevail.

It is very clear that you imply
1) Breaking Andhra Pradesh into Telangana and Seema Andhra is `ruining the country'.
2) That SeemaAndhra has the whip hand and is negotiating from a position of strength, since other parties have to come to it.
3) That splitting Telangana from Andhra Pradesh is `taking away the eating bowl from SeemaAndhra'.

From the above three implications, it is very clear that stopping the split of the state is vital to the interests of SeemaAndhra. While your second statement seems to imply that Congress and BJP have to come to SeemaAndhra to do anything with AP, it is very clear that the Congress and the BJP together have the ability to take away the SeemaAndhra people's eating bowl (third statement) and ruin them economically. Is it not, then, in the SeemaAndhra interest to negotiate with the one party (BJP) that has the ability to stop the split? When one has such vital interests at stake, as evidenced from your statement, one should be willing to go over to the people who can actually help and offer them something for their aid. Which is what I asked - what are the SeemaAndhra people willing to do for the BJP in return. No aid comes for free. I hope you realise that. There is a further problem. The BJP, having no elected representatives in SeemaAndhra, has no locus standi to argue on behalf of the people of SeemaAndhra. It is for the people of SeemaAndhra to provide the BJP that locus standi.

If you cut first paragraph and quote second paragraph, it can be called taking out of context.

Unitary state decisions in federal system is ruining the country. So if division is done without agreement of AP people/state it can fall in that category. They will have to come to negotiating table if they have to do things right.

I want to end here on this as conversation is going to all nitpicking.

[devesh]

I am going to refine the numbers to the next level:

TDP's required margin for victory is 123-138 seats in Seemandhra, if election are under United AP.

TDP's required margin for victory is 89 seats in Seemandhra, if elections are post-bifurcation.

above sums up neatly, why INC is the brown-EIC. the rakshasas truly know how to play with mayavi forces.

while we're all discussing why BJP deserves to get shafted for something they didn't do, the INC has taken the treasure home already.

they've made it impossible for TDP to win in a united Andhra Pradesh.

[Muppalla]

I want to say regarding numbers, if we just take LS (42), there is no party that can cross 12 to 15 seats as of this date. So it is a situation of split verdict like Jharkhand. Everything to this can change only due to how the events will be orchestrated during next few months.