vivek_ahuja wrote:RayC wrote:Obviously, material and materiel help can come from foreign lands, like the Chinese assistance to the NE insurgency.
RayC sir,
I agree with the assertion that supporting the Tibetan rebellion openly through India will have significant and serious ramifications (including possibly a military response from China). However, if material help was to be provided, what other country other than India do you mean as foreign lands? Tibet is landlocked. Nepal etc would not cut it. IMO India will get dragged in one way or another...
Also, the Pakistani war against India through mujaheddin is probability not a good model to try and replicate against China. Where we have not been responding actively against Pakistan for decades, China would probably attack within months if something like this were tried against them. So we need to tread carefully on the Tibetan issue.
-Vivek
By foreign lands, I meant interested nations in ensuring that Tibet becomes independent (or at least burns to keep China occupied and away from consolidating) and it need not be neighbouring countries of Tibet. However, a conduit (nation) would be essential which is essential to funnel in materiel (similar on the lines of US assistance of the Mujahideens in Afghanistan, through Pakistan).
The nations could be any.
It is just my surmise that the US during Bush's tenure and now also, has shifted focus to containing China, now that the grip over the Middle East is better than it was during the Clinton era. The US, not withstanding its assertion, appears to have no plans to quit Iraq lock, stock and barrel. It's Embassy is larger than the Vatican city and the Balad airbase is the largest US military base in the world!
This link will give you some interesting insight into the issue:
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/is ... mindex.htm
The US has its strategic interest in the Middle East and has to a great extent been able to fulfil the same.
It is my guess that to contain China, US has a own 'string of pearls' agenda. In East Asia, the US has South Korea and Japan to squeeze that flank. It has Taiwan to the South and though Vietnam is not in the US sphere of influence, it is a buffer since there is no love lost between China and Vietnam and the South China Sea is disputed.Thailand can be banked upon as also Singapore (to some extent).
India has tilted towards the US and in any tenuous issue on China, while India may act neutral, it will ensure US' interest, since indirectly, it will also be in the interest of India. With India's naval might increasing by the day, India will effectively act as a force multiplier with the US Navy over the Malacca Straits and this strategic chokepoint can be denied to the Chinese. It might be prudent to state here that much of Chinese trade flows through this Strait.
The US influence in Sri Lanka, though is not upfront, I believe is subtle. The fact that LTTE was declared a terrorist organisation and the fact that the US is silent over the SL's rather ham handed sledgehammer action on the LTTE is an indicator, more so, since the US claim than Darfur is a genocide! It always had an interest in the Tricomalee port and possibly still has!
While it may appear that Pakistan is in a turmoil because of its idiocy, the visit of Kiyani to the US and then the sudden escalation of event with strong handed Pak military covert machinations against Zardari to isolate him from even his own Party and PM is an interesting commentary. The greater the chaos in Pakistan, the greater is the US leverage! Thus, no matter what is officially claimed in Pakistan, it still appears to be a handmaiden of the US. In this connection, the over zealous help of the US to India over the Mumbai carnage is also an indicator to put the spanner in the works, more so, when never before the US has been so forthcoming!
Thus, there is a tacit string of pearls of the US against China in the works.
If Pakistan can be 'controlled', what is Nepal? To foment problems there for the Marxists, is for the US 'bayen hath ke khel'!Who knows there is something already afoot. The Nepalese Army has given an extension to some Brigadiers who are retiring while the Defence Minister (who was the Marxist Rebel's General) has overruled it, even though the Nepal Army Act permits such extension. Thus, there is a potential for problems and who knows who is behind it!
The Bangladesh Mutiny is also another issue that is interesting. Has the US changed horses?
Therefore, if the Indian subcontinent is in a flux, with covert finances flowing to the right quarters, anything can happen in that country so as to allow the flow of US aid and materiel to the Tibetans.
We must also not forget the Uighurs. There are enough Islamic nations who will join hands to ensure a problem is ensuing there too and thus the Western flank of China burning!
Just some kiteflying!
Bade,
This is anecdotal. A businessman friend of mine who has a business connection with China told me that in China, Money and Wealth is thier new God! Ideology etc be damned and that is also the reason why the Chinese don't rock the boat!