India's Options in Afghanistan
Here is how I see the pitfalls of our Afghanistan policy.
Iran
As we have heard again, Iran is asking for a tripartite solution between Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Looking at Afghanistan it is basically the meeting place between Pakistan and Iran with a sprinkling of Uzbeks and Turkmen thrown in. That is the inner circle of stakeholders due to the cultural and sectarian demographics of Afghanistan. Then there is the wider circle of stake-holders - India, Russia, USA, China, maybe Turkey, Saudi Arabia, etc.
As I see it, India is interested in Afghanistan, due to following reasons:
- India looks upon herself as a civilizational state which once bordered Afghanistan and that historical memory creates our stakes in Afghanistan.
- India reciprocates the interests of the Afghans in India.
- India is also interested in Afghanistan as a bridge into Central Asia, where we have economic and security interests.
- India wants to deny Pakistan the luxury of getting Afghanistan in its strategic grip, from where it can conduct Jihad against the world, including India, without taking any responsibility for it.
- India wants to use Afghanistan to capture Pakistan in a pincer hold.
It is precisely because India has interests in Afghanistan that it increases Iran's bargaining power. I wrote a somewhat
detailed post earlier on the power-play in the region.
1) The more Pakistan gets scared of India's role in Afghanistan, the more easily Iran can get Pakistan to strike a deal with it on terms which are mutually agreeable!
- Pakistan keeps the US out of Afghanistan, Iran keeps India out of Afghanistan.
- Pakistan does not push for total control of the Taliban over Afghanistan, Iran can thus assure the Tajiks and the Hazaras that their security would be assured. The Afghan war ends.
- Both Iran and Pakistan (through China) can exploit the mineral resources of Afghanistan.
- Iran, Pakistan and China can share Central Asia among themselves.
2) Secondly Iran's position in the Islamic world has become somewhat more fragile. Shi'as are murdered in Pakistan openly, and Iran cannot do anything about it. Shi'as are under siege in Yemen, and Iran is helpless. Shi'as are persecuted in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and Iran can only look helplessly on. Hezbollah is slowly being cut off from the Shi'a stronghold in Iran-Iraq as Syria is slowly slipping from Shi'a influence.
Iranian Theocracy is desperately looking for a way to bolster its Islamic position [
1] [
2]. Its best bet is to turn Ummah politics from one of conflict between Shi'ites and Sunnis to West/Israel against Islam.
A ceasefire between Taliban and Northern Alliance which includes the Shi'a Hazara, as well a decrease in anti-Shi'a violence in Pakistan would go a long way in bolstering Iran's position as a strong Muslim power. It would prove that Iran can indeed look after the Farsi-speaking people of Afghanistan (Tajiks, etc.) as well as ensure safety for Shi'a in the region. Both of these goals are however dependent on Pakistani cooperation with Iran.
3) Thirdly Iran is desperately trying to not become a target of American and Sunni war machine (with Israeli capacity covertly thrown in). It does not want American shock and awe on its cities and power plants. It can do without the Saudis deploying their influence all over to hit out at Iran.
With USA coming out with an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in USA, the pressure on Iran becomes even more acute.
Pakistan plays an important part in GCC's war potential as recruits etc. Pakistan has some influence over Saudi Arabia in times of heightened war hysteria between Sunnis and Shi'as. Here too Pakistan can help.
Moreover Iran also does not want Americans to be opening a front against Iran from Afghanistan or through Pakistan. Something Americans may do if it comes to war. Iran wants Pakistan to deprive Americans of such a facility.
Also Iran wants Pakistan to put an end to Jundullah's activities against Iran from Pakistan Baluchistan.
Summarizing, it is in Iran's interest to make a deal with Pakistan, and India's dependence on Iran for access to Afghanistan gives Iran all the more leverage to strike a deal with Pakistan.
Iran was offering Pakistan to build the whole Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline and offering Pakistan gas, even though Pakistan hardly has money to pay anybody. Now Iran gets another card to play - Indian access to Afghanistan. Let's also be clear that India cannot give Iran anything, that Iran cannot get from China. So wouldn't Iran now be making Pakistan an even better offer?
USA
Right after India and Afghanistan signed the deal, we say how Ms. Unfair and other voices in the West started talking about how this deal would jeopardize Pakistan's interests in Afghanistan, and how Pakistan would be even more unwilling to cooperate. Also Unfair pulled out India's role in Baluchistan right out of her musharraf at the drop of a hat!
India can expect a steady stream of criticism from some sections of American press and think tanks as well as from UK from now on.
Everybody would from now on be sucking up to the Pakistanis highlighting India's 'nefarious' designs in Afghanistan, and getting Pakistan to cooperate with them. All would now be shooting from India's shoulders.
It is true that State Department and Madam Hillary would be praising Indian role in Afghanistan, but there will be steady efforts at rapprochement between USA and Pakistan with USA using the Indian bogey to get Pakistan's cooperation.
Russia
We remember how Russia too was against Indian use of Ayni Airbase in Tajikistan to support Indian efforts at stabilizing Afghanistan.
Summarizing, neither Iran nor USA are really on Indian side in Afghanistan! Russia too want to keep big powers out of Central Asia if it can help it, or dependent on it if it is willing.
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So what do we have going for us?
1) The Afghans! The Afghans understand that India is out there to help them as far as we can! They have seen how we have been helping them in nation building.
2) The Afghans hate the Pakis! So there too India and Afghanistan have a convergence of strategic interests. The Tajiks have seen how their leaders like Ahmad Shah Masood and Barhanuddin Rabbani have been assassinated by ISI and its Al Qaeda friends. The Pushtuns are also not very fond of how ISI has been using them as fodder in their wars and efforts to control Afghanistan. Nor are they really impressed by the Talibanic form of Government.
3) The CARs: Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan would agree with India that Talibanism in Afghanistan cannot be allowed to take full hold. India has been a strong supporter of the Northern Alliance in the past, and promises to be now, which happens to coincide with the interests of these countries as well.
4) The Tajiks in Afghanistan would appreciate any peace that Iran can bring for them from Taliban attacks, but there is no guarantee that the Taliban would really listen to Pakistan, should Pakistan make the deal with Iran. The Tajiks, Hazaras would continue to live in fear of being swamped by Taliban. So regardless of whether Iran enters a deal with Pakistan or not, Northern Alliance would look for strong friends like India.
5) Whatever route the USA finds into Afghanistan, it will most likely want to support some part of the current political system and would not like everything to revert back to how it was on 7th October, 2001 when Operation Enduring Freedom began. Surely USA is in talks with all sorts of suspicious groups like Haqqani, so one can't really trust the Americans really whether they would stand and fight for the current political system.
6) Russia is apprehensive over what comes in Afghanistan. Russia too does not want drugs to be pouring in from Afghanistan. Russia does not want Chechens to be getting training in AfPak. Russia does not want Islamism infecting its Muslim population. Russia does not want the CARs to destabilize. So Russia and India can still cooperate if India defers some decision making in the region.
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What should India do?
India cannot let Iran to play the same role Pakistan has been playing with USA. We do not have the money!
1) India can provide Afghans with
training for ANA and ANP! The training should be in India for the most part. Indian troop presence in Afghanistan should be kept to a minimum. Those Indian troops which are deployed in Afghanistan need to be
self-sufficient.
2) India should be willing to invest in Afghanistan. India should continue to remain a dependable partner of the Afghans in its social and economic development.
3) Even as India desists from becoming too dependent on Iran for security cooperation.
We should involve Iran in the economic cooperation in Afghanistan, in extraction and transport of minerals from Afghanistan.
4) India needs to set up a coalition of those who are really interested in keeping Taliban from achieving full control over Afghanistan. This coalition should be one which needs not depend on Pakistan. India, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Russia should definitely belong in this coalition. Iran should be invited but it cannot be trusted.
5) We need to build an India-allied Network of Afghans, actually a fighting force of say 4-5 thousand men - both Tajiks and Pushtun who are willing to hit Pakistan and hit them hard.
Furthermore ...
6) India should deepen her interaction with the Afghans. Indians need to visit and study all the various ethnic, linguistic and religious minorities in Afghanistan. We need to do extensive anthropological study there. We need to build relations with them and seed them with an interest in India. Even in the Pushtun regions, where we believe that the local warlords can provide protection to the Indians, we should start NGOs. In return for this protection, we can offer these warlords, their kin, the medical facilities in India, as well as an easy access to stay, education, etc.
7) India should offer the Afghans to build an
Afghanistan museum in India to which Afghanistan can name a director and even personnel. Such a museum can be Delhi. All the pre-Islamic and some Islamic artifacts from Afghanistan would be transferred to this museum for safe-keeping. It would be an Afghan museum, but in India. India should arrange to transport as much cultural treasure as possible to India. One never knows when Taliban really takes over!
Here is my earlier proposal for India's policy in Afghanistan
- The Urgency
- The Proposal
- International Coalition
- Security Frameworks