Bharat Rakshak

Kati wrote:Satta Bazar till two days ago (March 21, 2021):

BJP/NDA: for Rs. 1 bet - return Rs.1 [Seems a bit optimistic; my return should be Rs. 2]

TMC: for Rs. 1 bet - return Rs. 5 [Seems too much pessimistic; my return should be Rs. 2.50]

INC+LF+ISF: for Rs. 1 bet - return Rs. 16 [About right; my return can be as high as Rs. 50]

Is there something for TN?

SwamyG wrote:

vijayk wrote:
I was thinking the same 2 days ago when I saw Kangana team advertising the movie ... Love, Struggle and Plitical fights on Jayalalitha movie heading. I thought how stupid!

Why is it stupid?

As I said I stand corrected.

Movie was being covered in MSM as struggle for power, love and affairs. I thought it might hurt AIADMK position during election.

But after seeing the trial, it looked awesome. not what is being portrayed as a negative image for Jaya.

sudarshan wrote:

disha wrote:
Ooh, nice to meet his other supporter! Looks like, between the two of us, we managed to set him up with some substantial support .

A lot of people sent in support for Dr. BB. Like I said before, I think he signed a contract with BJP (I remember twitter messages on those lines).

Kati wrote: Yes. Actually, most of the people overlook the hidden hand of Sangh played in the last ten years.
.....
.....

Sangh has been working in BJP as well. It has managed to keep the Devendra Kulla Vellar together and give the 7 sub-castes within them the recognition they wanted for decades.

SwamyG wrote:

Kati wrote: Yes. Actually, most of the people overlook the hidden hand of Sangh played in the last ten years.
.....
.....

Sangh has been working in BJP as well. It has managed to keep the Devendra Kulla Vellar together and give the 7 sub-castes within them the recognition they wanted for decades.

devendra kulla vellar comprise folks from all religions, because many have converted.

One doesn't see them as being particularly grateful because their next stop may well be building a significant political presence specifically for themselves, one that is not tied to someone's coattails or apron strings.

vote blocks bring greater power in negotiations than the mere ethereal promise of vote banks.

one is post election, signifying delivery and the other is pre election, signifying anticipation which may or may not fructify in line with expectations or even mathematics.

TN voters are a tricky lot with their own pet fancies and preferences which rarely includes national/hindi parties

one major set of these politicos are pitching eelam which is, to say the very least, as separatist as khalistan

KL Dubey wrote:

sudarshan wrote:...

A lot of people sent in support for Dr. BB. Like I said before, I think he signed a contract with BJP (I remember twitter messages on those lines).

Ji, just my poor attempt at humor. Please to excuse. I know he had a lot of support.

If he signed up with the BJP, good for him. Bad for us. I guess accurate predictions help the BJP, but now there's few reliable private psephologists.

Regarding Devendra Kula Vellalar classification in TN, this is what I have gathered from reading and talking to people familiar with the social and caste dynamics in TN. They were the original land owning and cultivating class of people. The expression 'Velllalar' traces its origin to the Tamil word 'Velanmai' which means 'farming'. But farming cannot exist in a vacuum. It is in turn linked to agro based industries or occupations. Since occupations solidified among family groups or communities over time, they came to be identified by their traditional occupations. There was a time when surpluses from farming and related activities in the value chain was distributed by and large in an egalitarian manner. There was no reason to move across value chain defined by traditional occupations. Gradually over time empires over larger swathes of land came to be established and lands were alienated from erstwhile landowners and they became landless labourers. Also through confiscatory land revenue levies the egalitarian nature of distribution of agricultural surplus value across occupations too, got disturbed. While some occupations and communities recovered from this economic disruption a few in the deep down South Tamilnadu permanently became very poor. Their inferior economic status resulted in no time to an inferior social status. The British came and and enforced their own brand of recognition of land ownership through an administrative process known as 'settlement commissions '. In theory the process was supposed to be judicial but in practice became executive fiats where social prejudices came to play a role. The inferior social status of this class got further cemented by the British classifying some groups as 'Scheduled Class' in which communities known by certain traditional occupations and family names in South TN got classified under it. There were seven such groupings in South TN that got classified as SC. The SC status did not confer economic benefits uniformly across all sections. For instance under British rule some public lands were given as a State largesse to some people classified as SC like 2G spectrum was allotted by the UPA government! The disenfranchisement in material terms continued after independence. These seven sub communities in the South TN were left out until the RSS began the process of social mobilisation and a promise material advancement and improvement social status. The second has been achieved in law but there is hope among this group that substantive improvement in social status and material prosperity will become a reality in the future. This is expected to benefit the ADMK- BJP-PMK alliance in the coming election.

chetak wrote: devendra kulla vellar comprise folks from all religions, because many have converted.

One doesn't see them as being particularly grateful because their next stop may well be building a significant political presence specifically for themselves, one that is not tied to someone's coattails or apron strings.

vote blocks bring greater power in negotiations than the mere ethereal promise of vote banks.

one is post election, signifying delivery and the other is pre election, signifying anticipation which may or may not fructify in line with expectations or even mathematics.

TN voters are a tricky lot with their own pet fancies and preferences which rarely includes national/hindi parties

one major set of these politicos are pitching eelam which is, to say the very least, as separatist as khalistan

Caste calculations are obviously not simple, needless to state. They are predominantly split between Hindus and AIADMK. What "some BJP strategists" want is that these people vote well in BJP seats, and not vote so well in AIADMK seats. It is like alliance partners want to win only so much. AIADMK is thinking similarly. Almost all the alliances are playing such games, they want to win more seats than their partners. This election being an arithmetic election without a wave, post-election scenarios are important. The older / earlier Christians can vote based on their caste paying little heed to their Church's injunctions. Only the new age Christians, rice-bag converters, and youth tend to harbor anti-Hindu and anti-tradition feelings.

Every entity - political and caste - want to preserve or get hold of power. No caste group would want to be subservient to any political party - regional or national. Vice versa.

There is no visible or major secession movement in TN at the moment. I have not heard this from DMK voters.

Pardon me if this had been posted before.

Massive electoral fraud detected in Kerala : 20 lakh Bangladeshi immigrants are voters

https://www.socialobserver.in/latest-ne ... re-voters/

SwamyG wrote:

chetak wrote: devendra kulla vellar comprise folks from all religions, because many have converted.

One doesn't see them as being particularly grateful because their next stop may well be building a significant political presence specifically for themselves, one that is not tied to someone's coattails or apron strings.

vote blocks bring greater power in negotiations than the mere ethereal promise of vote banks.

one is post election, signifying delivery and the other is pre election, signifying anticipation which may or may not fructify in line with expectations or even mathematics.

TN voters are a tricky lot with their own pet fancies and preferences which rarely includes national/hindi parties

one major set of these politicos are pitching eelam which is, to say the very least, as separatist as khalistan

Caste calculations are obviously not simple, needless to state. They are predominantly split between Hindus and AIADMK. What "some BJP strategists" want is that these people vote well in BJP seats, and not vote so well in AIADMK seats. It is like alliance partners want to win only so much. AIADMK is thinking similarly. Almost all the alliances are playing such games, they want to win more seats than their partners. This election being an arithmetic election without a wave, post-election scenarios are important. The older / earlier Christians can vote based on their caste paying little heed to their Church's injunctions. Only the new age Christians, rice-bag converters, and youth tend to harbor anti-Hindu and anti-tradition feelings.

Every entity - political and caste - want to preserve or get hold of power. No caste group would want to be subservient to any political party - regional or national. Vice versa.

There is no visible or major secession movement in TN at the moment. I have not heard this from DMK voters.

SwamyG ji,

I know that you are very clued up on many things regarding TN and the tamils but there are some things that you should also consider

stalin was vehemently objecting to India abstaining from the UNHRC vote and talking about eelam, as was that other prized idiot and rice bag convert kamal hassan

since when do political pustules like these small time dravidian goondas and non entity ricebag converts dictate India's foreign policy. this was a wrong precedent set by the traitorous congis and that is what resulted in the high casualty rates of the IPKF who had been press ganged into a silly fight in which India had no dog.

India was pushed into this fight because idiot congis were controlled by the eyetalian padres acting via the mafia queen, and these were the very same eyetalian padres who definitely had a dog in the eelam fight and were openly supporting the ltte.

people like vaiko are spouting eelam talk all the time, along with several other dravidian nut jobs and ltte supporting whack jobs. How does someone miss this

what other visible signs of a secession movement in TN are we looking for. Then, and, as it is the case now, BIF foreign funded padres are in the thick of all things eelam and starting from koodankulam, to the highway, and to sterlite, they are neck deep into nefarious activities designed to aid the ltte which is pushing eelam.

BTW, for the gluttonous padres and the BIF backed ltte, eelam does not mean lanka only. the greedy padres as well as the BIF have had their beady and covetous eyes on separating large parts of south India as well, ever since the days of that book thumping crook caldwell. eelam has slotted in very nicely in refining their plans.

too bad for the padres that the hans, simply by entering lanka, have inadvertently thrown a huge spanner into the eelam works. The hans simply cannot risk civil war in lanka and so will never allow any separatist activity to grow again.

the lanka muslims are slowly getting pushed into a corner because the hans need them there and the sinhala will also benefit.

certainly, the dravidians along with the padres are too smart to be caught waving eelam flags and singing eelam songs on mount road. Short of that, everything else is being done to push eelam, along with supporters like stalin, kani, and those shady jegath gasper types pushing for a separate "tamil identity".

almost the entire TN coast is in the grip of overt and covert eelam types backed by the padres and has become something like a ghetto for others who are being excluded and gradually squeezed out

the ltte types are into drugs, weapon and terrorism and form part of the nexus in the smuggling routes running from afpak, through cashmere, punjab, across India and into lanka via TN and thereafter to the markets in europe, uk and states.

human trafficking has been on the rise along the same routes. many tens of Indian "fishing" boats are found everyday, deep into lankan territorial waters with absolutely no reason at all to be there.

All these "fishing" boats are owned mostly by the dravidian political party big wigs. I could give you the names but I will refrain from doing so. Do you think that they are simply gathering for prayer meetings there everyday.

The lankans as well as the GoI are both well aware of what exactly is going on and why these dravidian owned "fishing" boats prefer to always loiter in lankan waters.

the UNHRC buisiness is just the vengeful BIF taking revenge on the sinhala for eliminating the ltte or to be more specific, eliminating the ltte leadership which was all padre inspired and BIF padre funded with tentacles deep into all the EU states, especially the nefarious and duplicitous scandinavian + norwegian religious entities masquerading as envoys of peace and amity.

these same guys have all had a successful practice run in east timor and are keen to employ the same methodology plus a few variations to cater for "local" conditions





from the hindustan times:

TN leaders urge India to vote in favour of UN resolution against Sri Lanka

Stalin, in a statement, asked Prime Minister Narendra Modi not to take a pro-Sri Lanka stand while voting on the resolution that comes up on March 22 (at its 46th regular session). Stalin said that Modi’s silence “has caused shockwaves to Tamils around the world and in Tamil Nadu” after Sri Lankan foreign secretary Jayanath Colombage had said that India would vote in support of his country. “Union foreign minister Mr Jaisankar went to Sri Lanka. Mr Modi and Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa held telephone talks but none of the press reports said that the talks discussed the resolution,” said Stalin. He called for Modi to gather support from other member states in favour of the resolution.

“While Tamils are anxiously waiting for India’s position, it is painful that the BJP government has allowed the Sri Lankan foreign secretary to decide India’s stand. Nine-crore Tamils living across the world will never forgive them if Tamil’s interests are betrayed,” he added.

DMK’s ally, Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) chief Vaiko, a known sympathiser of the outlawed militant group Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), said the BJP-led Centre won’t be forgiven if they favour Sri Lanka. The LTTE fought for an independent homeland for Tamil in Sri Lanka and was found responsible for assassinating former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in Tamil Nadu’s Sriperumbudur over the issue.

Leader of Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and former Union minister Anbumani Ramadoss, who is in the NDA alliance in Tamil Nadu, wrote to external affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on Sunday requesting to vote for the resolution on promoting reconciliation, accountability and human rights in Sri Lanka. He recalled that Modi in a public meeting in Chennai in February had assured that India was committed to ensuring that Tamils lived in Sri Lanka in peace, dignity and equality. “Justice for Tamils killed in the 2009 genocide in Sri Lanka remains elusive for the victims after 12 years,” Ramadoss said in his statement. “Peace in Sri Lanka and maintaining India’s position as the dominant ally are vital for our national interests,” he said, adding that Sri Lanka has changed its position with India and taken its relationship with China to a higher level.

Is Assam safe for NDA? Is there any worry

There's always a worry in any state where the peaceful 'M' population is >25%, in Assam it is >30% (by a conservative estimate). Also, AIDUF is in coalition with INC this time, so they won't be breaking away any votes. Then there is also the CAA, although yet to be implemented is a contentious issue in Assam where many oppose it . Bodo region is another unknown where for reasons BJP knows best they aligned with UPP against BPF after having fought the election with BPF last time. Overall, every state going into polls except for Kerala is too close to call.

Kati wrote:Pardon me if this had been posted before.

Massive electoral fraud detected in Kerala : 20 lakh Bangladeshi immigrants are voters

https://www.socialobserver.in/latest-ne ... re-voters/

Not a surprise. The state is full of illegal immigrants.

The "20 lakh illegal immigrants" figure is an estimate not from the EC but from someone else further down in the article. I don't doubt that is correct, but hopefully that does not translate into a similar number of illegal voters.

If it is really that high, the election needs to be canceled, the state brought under President's rule upon expiry of the assembly term in May, and the voter rolls cleaned up over six months before holding another election.

Meanwhile Congis are claiming 4 lakh illegal voters as of latest news. Even that is very concerning, does the EC really have enough time to cancel these illegals before the election? If the EC is really planning to hold a fraud election, someone needs to move the courts to cancel it in advance. Where are the likes of Dr. Swamy when he is needed ?

KL Dubey wrote:Meanwhile Congis are claiming 4 lakh illegal voters as of latest news. Even that is very concerning, does the EC really have enough time to cancel these illegals before the election?

The problem is not just that of BDs illegals. They still can be identified based on their names (heavily Arab-ised) and even the language and accent. But a bigger fraud has been brought out by the Congress leadership. There are multiple fictitious voters, all having different names & addresses but with the same photograph. Such voters are kind of sprinkled across polling booths, which are not very far off. Every party these days have figured out to remove the 'indelible ink'. So a person having multiple voter ID cards can quickly move around various booths and cast their votes. This scheme can never be an accident, and most likely is done in collusion with the man/woman whose photograph is used. And in KL the skill set & resources to come up with such dubious schemes is with the CPI(M). Their cadre now virtually run the government establishments including the police.

What is more surprising is that the state Election Commission (with an Rajasthan born IAS officer in KL cadre) has not shown any seriousness in deleting the duplicate names. Congress leadership had sent in multiple complaints with evidence but nothing happened, and now finally they have taken this up at KL High Court. As of now, I feel that with such schemes in place commies may win the elections this time again.

PS: I personally wish to see the commies winning again. That is because the current government have used many devious schemes to get money via loans. In next 2 years the repayment with interest will have to be started. It would be better to make the commies themselves figure out the way to make the payments. As of now KL as a state do not have any new scheme which generates revenue to make the payments.

Most likely, this time around, CPM and the Left as a whole will get a garland of a huge ZERO in the Bengal election.
More than anything else, this will be a watershed moment for the Left politics in Bengal as it'll deliver a body blow to this over-sized egoistic cult.
Losing powers in Bengal and Tripura had been a huge setback for this moronic group who used to dominate the political discourse without much representation. Anyway, now we will have to wait for KL to fall. That will choke their money supply, and by default to most of the jihadi inspirational activities.

Latest satta bazar prediction:

BJP-179,
TMC-89,
INC+LF+ISF-26.

IMHO, it is still a bit rosy for BJP, as half of the seats will be decided by a margin of less than 1%. However, my estimate - BJP is hovering around 145.
Cut-off to form a govt is 148.

A new avatar of Muslim League has born in Bengal after a span of 70 years.

"Bhaijaan" Abbas Siddiqi (Peer of Furfura Sharif) formed the ISF (Indian Secular Front) which has allied with INC and LF. He is drawing a large minority crowds all over Bengal, and going to be Mumtaaz Banoo's failure (assuming that is going to happen).

But it is the "Chota Bhaijaan" - Abbas Siddiqi's younger brother Nawshad Siddiqi, who is young and a good orator, is the main attraction. He should be watched in days to come. This is the speech he is giving at Bhangor - a monority dominated area barely 20km from Kolkata.

Watch (in Bengali): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji4eMhd56_Q

Kati wrote:A new avatar of Muslim League has born in Bengal after a span of 70 years.

"Bhaijaan" Abbas Siddiqi (Peer of Furfura Sharif) formed the ISF (Indian Secular Front) which has allied with INC and LF. He is drawing a large minority crowds all over Bengal, and going to be Mumtaaz Banoo's failure (assuming that is going to happen).

But it is the "Chota Bhaijaan" - Abbas Siddiqi's younger brother Nawshad Siddiqi, who is young and a good orator, is the main attraction. He should be watched in days to come. This is the speech he is giving at Bhangor - a monority dominated area barely 20km from Kolkata.

Watch (in Bengali): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji4eMhd56_Q

Cant understand what he is saying, but are they following the Owaisi brothers template.. aka, Older one tries to pass off as diplomatic & intelligent, younger one works the mob ?

With these folks in the game, how do they impact AIMIM's chances ?

ISF, AIMIM et al don't bode well for our country/civilizational future. Amit Shah, in this respect, has been a big zero. For all the big talk on CAA, NRC, deportation of illegal Bangladeshis/Rohingyas etc, the action on the ground has been a big zero.

Imagine if the Centre had shown intent and initiated the process of deportations (which is within the Union List). Not only would we be so much better off as a country, it'd have paid rich electoral dividends

SwamyG wrote:

chetak wrote: devendra kulla vellar comprise folks from all religions, because many have converted.

One doesn't see them as being particularly grateful because their next stop may well be building a significant political presence specifically for themselves, one that is not tied to someone's coattails or apron strings.

vote blocks bring greater power in negotiations than the mere ethereal promise of vote banks.

one is post election, signifying delivery and the other is pre election, signifying anticipation which may or may not fructify in line with expectations or even mathematics.

TN voters are a tricky lot with their own pet fancies and preferences which rarely includes national/hindi parties

one major set of these politicos are pitching eelam which is, to say the very least, as separatist as khalistan

Caste calculations are obviously not simple, needless to state. They are predominantly split between Hindus and AIADMK. What "some BJP strategists" want is that these people vote well in BJP seats, and not vote so well in AIADMK seats. It is like alliance partners want to win only so much. AIADMK is thinking similarly. Almost all the alliances are playing such games, they want to win more seats than their partners. This election being an arithmetic election without a wave, post-election scenarios are important. The older / earlier Christians can vote based on their caste paying little heed to their Church's injunctions. Only the new age Christians, rice-bag converters, and youth tend to harbor anti-Hindu and anti-tradition feelings.

Every entity - political and caste - want to preserve or get hold of power. No caste group would want to be subservient to any political party - regional or national. Vice versa.

There is no visible or major secession movement in TN at the moment. I have not heard this from DMK voters.

SwamyG ji,

the following dravidian parties are currently reported to be using the posters, images and cutouts of ltte chief velupillai prabhakaran in their election rallies:

MDMK, VCK, NTK, PMK and TVK apart from DMK and their cohorts who have all supported the ltte and velupillai prabhakaran since even before the IPKF days when karunanidhi was active. It also mentions that parties are supporting eelam.

reference is made to a report in today's TOIlet, page 6 of the bangalore edition.

Recently Mamata Banerjee contacted former TMC worker and now BJP district VP Praloy Pal for help in Nandigram. He refused. A phone recording was released to the media. Looks like Mamata is going to lose Nandigram.

Bengal seems to have seen 80%+ turnout in Phase I. Assam around 75%. It could be voter fraud (the giveaway would have been if the turnout crossed 100%). The news is from the NDTV and I don't want to click on that link. So just reporting the headline.

The first phase is whitewash- 100% or worst case 95% for the right party (going by all the handles who knows what is going on)

Not sure how trustworthy this report is...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjp_UR83T10

Follow Dr. BB for reliable analysis and bredictions. It is a BJP clean sweep in Phayze 1 of WB.

KL Dubey wrote:Follow Dr. BB for reliable analysis and bredictions. It is a BJP clean sweep in Phayze 1 of WB.

Do I have to be on Twitter to follow him? Just googling doesn't give me anything.

who is dr BB?

sudarshan wrote:

KL Dubey wrote:Follow Dr. BB for reliable analysis and bredictions. It is a BJP clean sweep in Phayze 1 of WB.

Do I have to be on Twitter to follow him? Just googling doesn't give me anything.

https://twitter.com/5Forty3?ref_src=tws ... r%5Eauthor

Ashokk wrote: https://twitter.com/5Forty3?ref_src=tws ... r%5Eauthor

Thanks! I haven't seen Dr. BB sound this confident even in 2019, may he turn out right once again.

he is dr PP (not BB)
In past he has been wrong and right also just like any psephologist, it would be best to wait for the moment of truth !
His heart beats for BJP hence his calculations get confounded once in a while
https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1071 ... 93760?s=20

IndraD wrote:he is dr PP (not BB)

And it is also "Pakistan," not "Bakistan" .

We've been over his track record multiple times in this forum. My impression of him is overwhelmingly positive (despite his mistakes - yes, he had a couple).

As an aside, it seems that the "banana" symbol that Dr. BB refers to is the symbol of the AJSU, a BJP ally?

OmkarC wrote:Not sure how trustworthy this report is...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjp_UR83T10

Yes, that video is turning the state upside down now. . . . .
Even though the media is refusing to verify the authenticity of the tape on legal ground, we all know that the female voice is that of Mumtaaz banoo.
This is her last minute plea to local ex-party leader who has moved over to BJP.

Lates: WB voting percentage > 85%. It is definitely going to help BJP.

Time to call Dilbu now and when counting.

Mort Walker wrote:Time to call Dilbu now and when counting.

Yes. Worried about Assam too. WB, Assam and TN. very crucial

Isn’t Prashant Kishore supposed to give up politics if BJP wins in Bengal?

Tanaji wrote:Isn’t Prashant Kishore supposed to give up politics if BJP wins in Bengal?

Personally, I'm hoping:

a. BJP wins big in Bengal (failing which - BJP wins in Bengal, doesn't have to win big)
b. Prashant Kishore doesn't give up politics
c. Instead, Prashant Kishore becomes advisor and campaign manager for AAP

I thought of having him as campaign manager for INC, but don't want to spoil the great work that pappu is doing there. You never know, two jinxes might cancel out. As Napoleon said - "never interrupt your opponent when he's making a mistake."

Hopefully Dr PP is right but I think its too early to start saying things like "Ive seen enough " ...BJP might have gotten a edge over TMC these past few days but its gonna take something insane for it to be a dominant and comfortable win like he's predicting

Tanaji wrote:Isn’t Prashant Kishore supposed to give up politics if BJP wins in Bengal?

IIRC, Prashant Kishore said that he would quit politics if the BJP crossed a hundred seats in bengal.

he said that the number of BJP seats would be limited to two digits only

Tanaji wrote:Isn’t Prashant Kishore supposed to give up politics if BJP wins in Bengal?

KJo wrote:

Tanaji wrote:Isn’t Prashant Kishore supposed to give up politics if BJP wins in Bengal?

PK has some nuisance value. He did employ hundreds of his team people all over Bengal to assess the ground level situation (which is/was known to local politicians). So, based on the ground report, PK - in his corporate style - started calling the shots. And, this angered a good number of senior party people, and this is the reason behind the stalwart Shubhendu Adhikari cross over to BJP. Ditto for the (ex-) forest minister Sri Rajib Banerjee, who has a very clean image, to switch over to BJP.
The entire exercise of hiring PK was done by Mumtaaz Banoo's corrupt nephew (who is actually rumored to be her own son - out of wedlock and/or secret marriage with a muslim guy - a lawyer) Abhishek Banerjee (AB)- who is her "heir-apparent". PK has direct line to AB, and he started calling the shots so much so that he implanted his team personnel in different ministers' offices. This arrangement raised a lot of eyebrows among the 'babudom' who grumbled internally, and caused a lot of heartburn within the secretariat. ..... Anyway, this is the background.