PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

[manish]

GE's Immelt has some not-so-kind words to say about PRC...and also about Obama.
GE CEO hits out at China, Obama

Jeffrey Immelt, General Electric's chief executive, has launched a rare broadside against the Chinese government, which he accused of being increasingly hostile to foreign multinationals.
He warned that the world's largest manufacturing company was exploring better prospects elsewhere in resource-rich countries, which did not want to be "colonised" by Chinese investors. "I really worry about China," Mr Immelt told an audience of top Italian executives in Rome, accusing the Chinese government of becoming increasingly protectionist. "I am not sure that in the end they want any of us to win, or any of us to be successful."

So far it was the technology and services cos that were complaining publicly, now looks like the manufacturing sector guys are starting to get impatient as well.

And for BO...

Mr Immelt also had harsh words for Barack Obama, US president, lamenting what he called a "terrible" national mood and expressing concern that over-regulation in response to the global financial crisis would damp a "tepid" US economic recovery. Business did not like the US president, and the president did not like business , he said, making a point of praising Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, for her defence of German industry.

At this rate, raising 2012 campaign funding is going to be a tough ask for the messiah. Anyways, in the post-BP spill world, chief executives need to be extra careful - probably GE realised this and issued the following lifafa...

In a statement, GE said Mr Immelt's remarks had been taken out of context and contested the accuracy of the reporting. "Mr Immelt's comments at a private dinner focused on the relationship between business and government in general and did not single out President Obama. Mr Immelt also discussed the attractiveness and importance of China as a market for GE."

[Vinu]

Bank of China to raise up to $8.9bn in share issue

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10489439.stm

UK-based bank Standard Chartered has said it will invest $500m in Agbank.
Qatar and Kuwait are already set to invest $3.6bn in the IPO.
Other likely investors include Singapore's sovereign wealth fund Temasek Holdings, Hong Kong businessman Li Ka Shing and Rabobank of the Netherlands.

Jin Lin, a Shanghai-based analyst at Orient Securities, told the Reuters news agency: "Bank of China's fund-raising plan would be another blow to an already fragile market"

[derkonig]

The true state of PRC's high speed rails
http://business.rediff.com/slide-show/2 ... e-duds.htm
I wonder what spin will the resident PRC dlones put on these glorious waste of capital. May a thousand more white elephants bloom in PRC.

[shynee]

Honda Workers Bypass ‘Toothless’ China Unions, Fueling Strikes

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- When Huang Fengxia and her co-workers at Honda Lock Co. (Guangdong)’s factory in Zhongshan, China, decided to strike on June 9 for higher wages, the last person they considered contacting was their labor union representative.

“I have no idea what a labor union is or what they do,” said Huang, 26, whose one yuan ($0.15) monthly union membership fee gives her no access to collective bargaining, just a twice- yearly 200 yuan gift voucher during Chinese festivals. “It’s like a school club.”

‘Toothless’ Unions
“Historically, China’s labor unions have been rather toothless,” said Li Qiang, founder of China Labor Watch, a New York-based labor advocacy group. “When Honda factory workers went on strike they had no intention of using the union to negotiate. Workers had no idea about the concept.”

The All China Federation of Trade Unions, which represents China’s 169 registered labor unions, is closely affiliated to the government, hindering its efforts to win concessions and higher wages, Li said. The federation, founded in 1925, uses “the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China as the fundamental criterion for their activities,” according to its website. A spokesman for the federation said it “represents the interests of the Chinese workers” and was not a government agency.

Labor organizations in the West such as the Detroit-based United Auto Workers union and the U.K.’s Trades Union Congress operate independently of the government and hire their own lawyers to advise on labor issues.

[wrdos]

- China raises its estimate of GDP growth in 2009 to 9.1%
- The new figure of 2009 Chinese GDP is 34.05 trillion yuan, or US$ 5.03 trillion at the current changing rate.

http://www.chinaknowledge.com/Newswires ... wsID=35045

China raises its estimate of GDP growth in 2009 to 9.1%

Jul. 5, 2010 (China Knowledge) - The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics or NBS, announced on July 2 that it has revised its estimate of China's gross domestic product for 2009 to RMB 34.05 trillion, or a 9.1% growth year-on-year, from the preliminary figure of RMB 33.54 trillion and 8.7%, respectively, source reported.

The new figure is an increase of RMB 515.4 billion or 0.4 percentage points from original calculation.

The bureau said China's primary industry value added was RMB 3.52 trillion, down RMB 25.1 billion from the preliminary data, with an unchanged growth rate of 4.2%.

The value added of secondary industry was RMB 15.76 trillion, raised RMB 68.1 billion than preliminary data, representing a 9.9% increase from 9.5%. The tertiary industry value added for 2009 was raised RMB 472.4 billion to RMB 14.76 trillion, up 9.3% year-on-year, increased 0.4% comparing with the preliminary figure.

The primary, secondary and tertiary industries account for 10.3%, 46.3% and 43.4% of the overall economy respectively, according to the statement made by the NBS.

On January 21 NBS announced China's GDP amounted to RMB 33.54 trillion in 2009, up 8.7% year on ye

[rsingh]

There is very good article about Chinese white color workers (called "ants") in Newsweek. Anybody with access , please post here. It is a real eye opener.

[James B]

Smart, Young, and Broke

White-collar workers are China’s newest underclass.

[vina]

A must read article in NY Times. IPhone Supply Chain Hightlights China's rising costs

If there is a clearer piece which says that China's low wage, massive volume, highly exploitative export based growth strategy has hit it's limits, this is it.

The tear down analysis of an iPhone's costs is instructive. Out of the $600 total $187 isBOM costs , China, more specifically, labor accounts for less than 7% of $187 , less than $17 and out of it and the end worker gets $1 an hour.

The total bill of materials on a $600 iPhone — the supplies that go into final assembly — is $187.51, according to iSuppli.

The least expensive part of the process is manufacturing and assembly. And that often takes place here in southern China, where workers are paid less than a dollar an hour to solder, assemble and package products for the world’s best-known brands.

No company does more of it than Foxconn, a division of the Hon Hai Group of Taiwan, the world’s largest contract electronics manufacturer.

With 800,000 workers in China alone and contracts to supply Apple, Dell and H.P., Foxconn is an electronics goliath that also sources supplies, designs parts and uses its enormous size and military-style efficiency to assemble and speed a wide range of products to market.

This is a wrenching change that is going to happen. Electronics costs are going to go up. Productivity has to skyrocket and CHina's exports in the low end are long term screwed.

[abhischekcc]

Not to throw a spanner in all the China bashing (which is my favourite indoor sport anyway), but China's decline as a manufacturing power is predicated on finding another country (or a combination thereof) that can provide the same cost/benefit ratio IN THE SAME GARGANTUAN QUANTITIES, and also produce comparable quality products.

The challenge is in the scale as well as end quality products.

Sure, India is cheaper than China in per hour labour costs. But we do not have the entire supply chain domestically for electronics.

Replacing China is a long term project. Short term advantages will not work here.

We may have quality in some niche areas, but our main challenge is maintaining quality while scaling to worldwide levels. This we have not been able to do in anything except ITvity, and perhaps pharma to some extent.

[Vinu]

Smart, Young, and Broke
White-collar workers are China’s newest underclass.

Can't we say this is mere an unemployment problem as common as in any other country?

I am really unable to realize the seriousness of the impact of this issue into PRC’s economy.

Thank you.

[rsingh]

Can't we say this is mere an unemployment problem as common as in any other country?

I am really unable to realize the seriousness of the impact of this issue into PRC’s economy.

Have you lead the article sil ? And do you really understand what was written there ?

[VikramS]

The competitive advantage of China is its system which flattens shantytowns, builds infrastructure, gives permits and allows factories to thrive with the minimum of hassle to the foreign investor.

There are very few countries in the world which can match China's ruthless efficiencies when it comes to facilitating manufacturing units.

However more and more businesses are realizing that China does not want foreign companies to prosper for too long. Once the local Chinese acquire the expertise and the knowledge to replicate the process, the life for foreigners will become tougher.

The Chinese machines will slowdown only when the foreigners decide that the strategic cost of the status-quo is too not worth the short-term tactical advantage. There is also the issue of critical dependence on the Chinese; every time China rattles the saber, the discomfort with that dependency grows.

There is opportunity for India and other lower cost countries to get their act together and offer a viable alternative to China. It does not have to be as simple as the Chinese model, but the process should be transparent and free from unknowns.

[Vinu]

[/quote]



Have you lead the article sil ? And do you really understand what was written there ?[/quote]

My appologies Sir. It was a question. Nothing offense meant. I was trying to get a big picture. - Thanks.

[Vinu]

China's petrol thirst. I hope this trade line also comes under the mercy of IN. (If situation araises)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10527308.stm

Another hunt for oil - in deep sea

http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100706/ ... 6166a.html

IMHO, these looks correct moves in right direction.

[DavidD]

The competitive advantage of China is its system which flattens shantytowns, builds infrastructure, gives permits and allows factories to thrive with the minimum of hassle to the foreign investor.

There are very few countries in the world which can match China's ruthless efficiencies when it comes to facilitating manufacturing units.

However more and more businesses are realizing that China does not want foreign companies to prosper for too long. Once the local Chinese acquire the expertise and the knowledge to replicate the process, the life for foreigners will become tougher.

The Chinese machines will slowdown only when the foreigners decide that the strategic cost of the status-quo is too not worth the short-term tactical advantage. There is also the issue of critical dependence on the Chinese; every time China rattles the saber, the discomfort with that dependency grows.

There is opportunity for India and other lower cost countries to get their act together and offer a viable alternative to China. It does not have to be as simple as the Chinese model, but the process should be transparent and free from unknowns.

Right, but the Chinese government makes the policies, so they get to decide when the strategic status-quo will not be worth the short term advantages. For example, right now, the PRC is making a giant effort to increase domestic consumption, which obviously will make things tougher for foreign firms. Eventually, the goal is to drive out most of the foreign firms and replace them with Chinese companies, whose employees will spend most of their money internally thus reducing the dependence on exports.

[Raja Bose]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10527308.stm

http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100706/ ... 6166a.html

Posting links without comment/explanation is typically not allowed (or considered smart) hence, please remedy the defect before admins come calling.

[Chinmayanand]

China's property market braced for 30pc drop

It would be good if the housing prices fell 90% so that every chinese can afford a nice home.

[DavidD]

China's property market braced for 30pc drop

It would be good if the housing prices fell 90% so that every chinese can afford a nice home.

Gonna be impossible with the population density of China, so it sure would be nice for my relatives in China Good to see the government popping the bubble before it gets too big though.

As for the article itself, it's of note to qualify the 30% drop prediction with the statement that it will happen over a 5-10 year period and that's only in cities where the bubble is the greatest(i.e. Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen). In comparison, the when the American RE bubble burst, it dropped 30+% nation wide in 4 years.

[Vinu]

China to roll out nationwide tax on oil and gas sales

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10551140.stm

From the outside it looks like a smart move to get the local governments benefitted from the flexible foreign exchange policy and the expected appreciaton Yuan. But IMO, it seems to do more harm for a export driven economy. Gurus may throw more lights on this.

Interestingly it was initially implemented/tested in the non-Chinese people regions (otherwise turmoil regions - the message is if you are against government your life will be miserable in multiple ways..!). Thx.

[svinayak]

Changing Global Demographics: China’s Little Emperors
July 8th, 2010 by Charles Sizemore
http://www.hsdent.com/blog/2010/07/08/c ... #more-1018

That China’s One Child Policy will eventually wreak havoc on China’s economy will come as no surprise to HS Dent readers. We have written for years that China will find it impossible to sustain a viable domestic consumer economy when the younger generation is, due to the simple math of one child per every two parents, half the size of the preceding generation. Others have commented on the effects on the country’s tax base and pension system. The result will be an unmitigated disaster for China as the country grows old before it grows rich. The “China Century” that many sinophiles love to speak of will be aborted–like so many anonymous Chinese babies due to the One Child Policy.

China’s recent issues with labor unrest suggests that the answer might be “no.” China’s young workers are displaying a defiance for authority arguably not seen since the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989. But unlike their forebears at Tiananmen Square, China’s youth today have little interest in politics or democracy. Their interest is in living the good life.

Reporting for the Financial Times, Geoff Dyer writes,

China’s youth can get a bad press. In most accounts, they are the “Little Emperors” or the “Me Generation”, the spoilt and apolitical offspring of one-child families who are interested in fast cars, video games and designer goods but little else. At the main Shanghai store of Louis Vuitton there is a queue to get in at weekends – young women wait patiently in the rope line, as if they were trying to get into the hottest new LA club.

Lines to get into the Louis Vuitton store… If only Mao could see them now. Dyer continues,

There are lots of good explanations for the strikes of the past two months, including low pay and a demographic shift that is reducing the number of young people entering the workforce. But there is also a generational shift at play. Chinese often talk about their capacity to chi ku, or “eat bitterness”, which helps explain their resilience amid the chaos and privations of the past century. But the generation born in the 1980s and 1990s has grown up among much wider prosperity, even in poor parts of the countryside.

China, a country with a collectivist history, now has the very American problem of dealing with a generation of independent-minded teenagers and 20-somethings. In some ways, this is a positive. It shows how far China has already developed and how modern the country has become.

Unfortunately, it likely also means that the days of cheap Chinese labor are rapidly coming to a close. Expect most of the growth in manufacturing output to shift to China’s neighbors in Southeast Asia.

[DavidD]

Vinu,

The tax in Xinjiang was designed to help ease the unrest of that region by keeping the money locally rather than siphoning them to the eastern coastal cities as it had been done in the past. As for the appreciation of the Yuan on exports, it will certainly hurt exports somewhat, but the effects will not be as drastic as some make it out to be. For example, it was only a few years ago when the Yuan appreciated from ~8.3/dollar to ~6.8/dollar, a far more significant appreciation than the recent one, and it had little impact on Chinese exports. In the long run, China wishes to depend less on exports, and you are seeing and will continue to see measures aimed to achieve that end.

Archya,

Like most analysis from foreigners, it attempts to superimpose one's own experience from an entirely different culture and environment onto a Chinese one. It's true that Chinese parents would shell out any amount of money for their single children, but those single children also bear the burden of an entire family. The pressure on them to perform is enormous, and the pressure comes from all directions, including their parents. Just about every conclusion this guy made is wrong, it really sounds like someone who's never spent a week in China interacting with average Chinese people.

[Vinu]

Google's decision is a surprise (at least for me). No mention about the Govt's assurance or measurement about the prevention of further attacks on google.. but still...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10566318.stm

I wonder, if Google pulls out of China who will loose more China or Google?

[Vinu]

Vinu,

The tax in Xinjiang was designed to help ease the unrest of that region by keeping the money locally rather than siphoning them to the eastern coastal cities as it had been done in the past. .

Thanks for the reply, I wonder how would it hlep to ease the urest, because at the bottom line people end up with paying more tax.

[naren]

Google's decision is a surprise (at least for me). No mention about the Govt's assurance or measurement about the prevention of further attacks on google.. but still...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10566318.stm

I wonder, if Google pulls out of China who will loose more China or Google?

Google is not the market leader in PRC. So it hardly matters for China. All this hype about Google's saintliness is to simply cover up their failure. Google may end up scoring H&D points over China, but its hardly going to translate into any real damage. So net loser is Google only.

[wlin]

Vinu,

The tax in Xinjiang was designed to help ease the unrest of that region by keeping the money locally rather than siphoning them to the eastern coastal cities as it had been done in the past. .

Thanks for the reply, I wonder how would it hlep to ease the urest, because at the bottom line people end up with paying more tax.

It is not sales tax but resource tax. That means the consumer of Xinjiang produced oil and gas pay the tax. Since most of Xinjiang oil and gas market is in East Coast. That means the consumer in East Coast pay the tax and the money will go to Xinjiang to build Xinjiang’s infrastructure. No big deal through, several billion per year.

Is it hard to believe?

[wlin]

Google's decision is a surprise (at least for me). No mention about the Govt's assurance or measurement about the prevention of further attacks on google.. but still...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10566318.stm

I wonder, if Google pulls out of China who will loose more China or Google?

Why surprise? I have said before on this tread. There is no government coordinated attack to Google. Just some teenagers want to be “hacker” and tried their luck. Those kind of attacks happened to Chinese sites also and more serious because they can get economic benefit from attacking Chinese site like QQ and Baidu or other online gaming site. QQ got a big division dedicated to against internet attacking. So this Google soap opera is totally ridiculous. I guess it related to Clinton’s smart power to try to cast some turmoil in China. But it seems the trial test did not work out. Not only Chinese internet users do not give it a shit but also the US companies did not follow Saint Google. So Google have no choice but continue to deal with the evil. So bad for them. Hope they can sleep well.

About who lose more? Well in China, if you search Chinese, most people use Baidu because Baidu understand Chinese character and Chinese people much better than Google. If you search English or any other foreign languages (except Japanese and Korean) you use Google. So how many Chinese will go to internet to search English content? Since Google announced this news back in January, a lot of people start to use Bing to search English content. And a lot of Chinese companies shift their ad from Google to other sites.

Although Google do not have big market share in online searching. But its map service and other apps like Android system got pretty big share or potential in Chinese market. I think Google way under estimate this part of business when they announced the news. They may think the search service and Android are two separate things. They can be Saint to withdraw their failure Chinese search service while using Android to earn big money from evil. Apparently the evil is a little bit smarter than they thought.

From Chinese side, I really can not figure out what kind of lose from this soap opera except publicity. But China is not pop star, so who cares?

[biswas]

"QQ got a big division dedicated to against internet attacking. "

So does Google.

[wlin]

"QQ got a big division dedicated to against internet attacking. "

So does Google.

Of course they do. Any serious business site will have this and online attack is part of business. They can from anywhere. Majority of Chinese origin attacks are target at Chinese site and they are more professional. Then why Goolge play this kind of soap for some amateur attacks.

[naren]

Google's business model is different: they are loyalty based and not transaction based. Thats why they need to resort to this political party like voter-base appeasement. They want to project themselves as the cool cult, which appeals to Religion-dissing, gay accepting, Che Guevera loving, "fight the establishment" type hipsters. Wlin ji has a point regarding maps/Android. Even this is a peripheral service meant to hook users to "loyalty". These peripheral services dont make much money. Until few years back, 98% of Google's revenue was generated from Google.com. I heard from a friend that Youtube is running in loss. Dont know how far that is true. But you can see how their business model works.

As for the attack being just teenagers, well its anybody's guess.

As for search technology per se, its not rocket science anymore. Google failed to be the early bird in China. So no matter how much they try, they will still be competing with others.

[Suraj]

wlin: A few questions, if you don't mind:

* Are there any published statistics (in English or Chinese) of Chinese hacker attacks on Chinese websites ?
* What are prominent chinese websites that have been targeted by hackers ? State domain (e.g. xinhua) or private (e.g. taobao) ?

[zlin]

Fortune Global 500 biggest companies

Year China India
2010 46 8
2009 37 7
2008 29 7
2007 24 6
2006 20 6
2005 16 5

[Raja Bose]

Why surprise? I have said before on this tread. There is no government coordinated attack to Google. Just some teenagers want to be “hacker” and tried their luck. Those kind of attacks happened to Chinese sites also and more serious because they can get economic benefit from attacking Chinese site like QQ and Baidu or other online gaming site. QQ got a big division dedicated to against internet attacking. So this Google soap opera is totally ridiculous.

Agree with your points that Google is peddling its "Dont Be Evil" BS as a marketing ploy (as it always was) and trying to act saintly and "oh-so-pure".

But lets not slip in some cute propaganda that these attacks were some "teenagers trying their luck" coz they were not - at least this much is evident from the attack logs and the coordination and sophistication of the attacks. And few know better about protecting data in the cloud today than Google - it is just a consequence of the massive scale of their data operations.

[Stan_Savljevic]

Yes, innocent newborn kids sipping milk from a feeding bottle did all that documented in the following report.
http://www.hatswitch.org/~sn275/papers/ ... TR-746.pdf

[wlin]

Why surprise? I have said before on this tread. There is no government coordinated attack to Google. Just some teenagers want to be “hacker” and tried their luck. Those kind of attacks happened to Chinese sites also and more serious because they can get economic benefit from attacking Chinese site like QQ and Baidu or other online gaming site. QQ got a big division dedicated to against internet attacking. So this Google soap opera is totally ridiculous.

Agree with your points that Google is peddling its "Dont Be Evil" BS as a marketing ploy (as it always was) and trying to act saintly and "oh-so-pure".

But lets not slip in some cute propaganda that these attacks were some "teenagers trying their luck" coz they were not - at least this much is evident from the attack logs and the coordination and sophistication of the attacks. And few know better about protecting data in the cloud today than Google - it is just a consequence of the massive scale of their data operations.

coordination? any people with instant messager can do that. If it were done by Chinese hackers, they can use qq group talk. There are many QQ gourps with more than 10K users.
sophistication? You must be joking.

The so call Google evdient is about two point, one is the attack came from 6 Taiwan ips. And they claim normally this means came from mainland China. I do not see why using 6 machines means highly coordination but I totally agree the part of Taiwan belongs to China.

Second, they said the hacking software Aurora using CRC-16 implementation which seems to be virtually unknown outside of China, as shown by a Google search for one of the key variable. The quote of the so call expert is :
"This information strongly indicates the Aurora codebase originated with someone who is comfortable reading simplified Chinese. Although source code itself is not restrained by any particular human language or nationality, most programmers reuse code documented in their native language. To do otherwise is to invite bugs and other unexpected problems that might arise from misunderstanding of the source code’s purpose and implementation as given by the code comments or documentation.

In my opinion, the use of this unique CRC implementation in Hydraq is evidence that someone from within the PRC authored the Aurora codebase. And certainly, considering the scope, choice of targets and the overwhelming boldness of the attacks (in light of the harsh penalties we have seen handed out in communist China for other computer intrusion offenses), this creates speculation around whether the attacks could be state-sponsored."

The evdience is they find one Chinese paper talking about this CRC-16 implementation. But the CRC-16 implementation was first published in W. David Schwaderer's book "C Programmer's Guide to NetBIOS" published in 1988 and well used in world wide. Do you want the page number?

So based on these two evdient, they accuse China state to attack Google and people believe it. So who is the evil?

[wlin]

wlin: A few questions, if you don't mind:

* Are there any published statistics (in English or Chinese) of Chinese hacker attacks on Chinese websites ?
* What are prominent chinese websites that have been targeted by hackers ? State domain (e.g. xinhua) or private (e.g. taobao) ?

First question, i do not have the stats. I do not think there is any official stats for this.
Second, i do not remember any serious state domain got hacked. The tele companies in China are owned by state. So anytime they got attacked they can call the tele company boss to phyically block the attack. For private site, like for taobao, yes, there are a lot of attacks. I think Taobao did a pretty good job on it. I did not heard any serious incident forTaobao. But QQ and other gaming site got a lot of news. Maybe because of media attention or maybe becuase the young hackers lock interest to Taobao.

[naren]

Attack on Google and China's cyber warfare capabilities are two different things. Whether China attacked Google or not, I dont think it has much relevance to us. (But China is getting very adept at inviting guests and slapping the door in their face. I appreciate that, because in my head, China == India, Googil == EIC. ). If what wlin ji quoted are the only arguments put forward by Googiluddin, then it is pretty weak, as anybody could see from it.

China's cyber warfare capabilities are established and well documented. Its not prudent to take them, or any other cyber threats lightly. I'm a strong proponent for building cyber warfare capabilities in India. We have a significant proportion of the GDP tied to the cyber world.

As for teen hackers in China, now thats interesting. Doesn't it work both ways ? If we have an established base of "fight the establishment" types, they can just as easily be turned around & used by external forces to unleash havoc. Who knows, some runny nose kid might find a way to circumvent govt firewalls and mass text about milk scandal. If I were a commie supporter, I would worry about them rather than feeling proud about hacker-culture, esp in a totalitarian setup.

Me thinks CPC is digging their own grave by enforcing excessive internet controls. This breeds this counter culture. I have come across articles which say that most people know how to bypass the firewalls and get the content they want.

"Never underestimate the power of denial. " - Ricky Fitts (remember which movie ?)

[vina]

Fortune Global 500 biggest companies

Year China India
2010 46 8
2009 37 7
2008 29 7
2007 24 6
2006 20 6
2005 16 5

Good. Now, 16 to 46 is a good growth. Do you have details /split up of which industry sectors those 46 companies are in ? That can give a good indication of which sectors grew fast , where the economic hotspots were and a dipstick into the nature of the PRC economy.

Are those company sizes by sales or by value of the companies? If value based and those "46" companies are largely govt controlled with a very small float in the Chinese stock exchanges, paying massive P/E ratios and the valuations are derived from that, I would take those with huge dollops of salt.

If sales based, I would like to see good proper double income accounting and GAAP financial statements , preferably listed in a stock exchange and closely tracked by analysts.

[RamaY]

Gonna be impossible with the population density of China, so it sure would be nice for my relatives in China Good to see the government popping the bubble before it gets too big though.

As for the article itself, it's of note to qualify the 30% drop prediction with the statement that it will happen over a 5-10 year period and that's only in cities where the bubble is the greatest(i.e. Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen). In comparison, the when the American RE bubble burst, it dropped 30+% nation wide in 4 years.

Just a while ago (few weeks to be precise) there was no RE bubble in PRC. Now it is being managed for 30% depreciation over 5-10 years.

By the way what is the difference between a 30% drop in 4 years (USA) versus 30% drop in 5 years (your prediction for PRC)

[Singha]

china car industry report
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/f ... 803950.stm

[svinayak]

china car industry report
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/f ... 803950.stm

In 2001 China car sales was low and lower than India.
With a few years it jumped around and became a leading sales.
How is that possible. It is exactly like it was mfg and a show was put up with car sales. No of cars in eh road do not match up with the actual sales of the car.