Re: US strike options on TSP

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Mar 2016 11:02

as per india-US relations thread, we are cutting into the overpriced scam that monsanto has been running for bt cotton here.

expect some HR advisories and crappola via the usual channels like NYT soon.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Mar 2016 12:44

Trump and US Manufacturing (residing abroad) don't see eye to eye. Trump wants to bring manufacturing jobs back home. He wants to do away with NAFTA and TPP. That is why the blue-collar workers are all for him.

As far as white-collar jobs are concerned, looking at Trump's support base, that is not his priority. So out-sourcing of services is still not on the radar. As such no white-collar workers are running to him.

It seems more and more likely that the Muslims in general, China and illegal Mexicans in USA are in Trump's cross-hairs, not that much India.

I'm expecting most of the white male non-college educated vote-bank to land in Trump's lap, i.e. the Average Joe. Jews too may tend towards Trump. Indians should but I don't know how the majority of Indian Americans tick.

Should NaMo visit USA in September when the UN party is often held, a photo-opportunity with NaMo could help Trump garner some more Desi votes.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Mar 2016 12:53

Published Mar 14, 2016
Editorial
Trump opens Pandora’s box in US: Global Times (China)

Donald Trump, front-runner to be the GOP's candidate for the upcoming US presidential election, encountered a major protest at his campaign event in Chicago on Friday evening. Over a thousand people, both his supporters and opponents engaged in a physical confrontation, which was quelled by police who arrested a number of people.

Fist fights among voters who have different political orientations is quite common in developing countries during election seasons. Now, a similar show is shockingly staged in the US, which boasts one of the most developed and mature democratic election systems.

Trump's mischief has overthrown a lot of conventional norms of US political life.

His remarks are abusively racist and extremist, which has left an impression on the US public that he is intentionally overthrowing political correctness.

Trump's rise was not anticipated by most analysts and observers. At the beginning of the election, Trump, a rich, narcissist and inflammatory candidate, was only treated as an underdog. His job was basically to act as a clown to attract more voters' attention to the GOP. However, knocking down most other promising candidates, the clown is now the biggest dark horse.

Trump is the last option for the GOP establishment. If he wins the primaries, the GOP will face a bitter dilemma. On the one hand, it will be a big compromise to GOP values, and the party takes a major risk of losing the game if they choose Trump as their candidate for president; on the other hand, if the GOP refuses to choose Trump, he might run as an independent candidate and split the vote, in which case, the GOP will also stand no chance in the final game.

The rise of Trump has opened a Pandora's box in US society. Trump's supporters are mostly lower-class whites, and they lost a lot after the 2008 financial crisis. The US used to have the largest and most stable middle class in the Western world, but many are going down.

That's when Trump emerged. Big-mouthed, anti-traditional, abusively forthright, he is a perfect populist that could easily provoke the public. Despite candidates' promises, Americans know elections cannot really change their lives. Then, why not support Trump and vent their spleen?

The rise of a racist in the US political arena worries the whole world. Usually, the tempo of the evolution of US politics can be predicted, while Trump's ascent indicates all possibilities and unpredictability. He has even been called another Benito Mussolini or Adolf Hitler by some Western media.

Mussolini and Hitler came to power through elections, a heavy lesson for Western democracy. Now, most analysts believe the US election system will stop Trump from being president eventually. The process will be scary but not dangerous.

Even if Trump is simply a false alarm, the impact has already left a dent. The US faces the prospect of an institutional failure, which might be triggered by a growing mass of real-life problems.

The US had better watch itself for not being a source of destructive forces against world peace, more than pointing fingers at other countries for their so-called nationalism and tyranny.

The Chinese seem to be shidding their pants at the prospect of Trump!

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 17 Mar 2016 13:03

underlying all this trumptamasha is the fact that the US is polarising, splitting into rich vs poor, haves and have nots in a far more extreme way than we have seen since the end of the civil war

that is far more worrying

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Mar 2016 13:22

There were always the poor and the rich in America. What has changed is the enormous deindustrialization that has taken place, manufacturing jobs going away to China and Mexico. That means, those Americans who thought they had risen up on the economic ladder, are finding themselves being pushed back into poverty. So it is not poverty that is making the people angry, it is the unstoppable trend to going deeper into poverty that is fueling the rage.

Both Republican and Democratic establishments have sold out the interests of the working class, and Trump is tapping into that anger!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Mar 2016 20:37

habal, the above was just my reading of before and after. Not think tank/wank. Just Mark 1 brain.

TC would be on the ticket that is the only way to respect the base.
Republican Establishment got disestablished.

Reality is they participated actively in impoverishment of American middle class. The progress after the 19th century was rolled back and there is no agriculture to fall back on.

Inner city living is hell.
Oakland is now 4th highest rent city!!!!!

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 17 Mar 2016 20:41

RajeshA wrote:There were always the poor and the rich in America. What has changed is the enormous deindustrialization that has taken place, manufacturing jobs going away to China and Mexico. That means, those Americans who thought they had risen up on the economic ladder, are finding themselves being pushed back into poverty. So it is not poverty that is making the people angry, it is the unstoppable trend to going deeper into poverty that is fueling the rage.

Both Republican and Democratic establishments have sold out the interests of the working class, and Trump is tapping into that anger!

Exactly whats happening. The income for the rich is structured in a highly tax favorable manner and it changes the income growth rates between the rich and the non-rich resulting in highly distorted income/wealth due to compounding effect.

All the militias that you see popping up are an indirect effect of such things. The other one is that a lot of people will be back in EJ churches sooner or later. The four Abrahamic religions are the opium of the victimised (fourth one being communism).

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Mar 2016 21:22

If TC as VP and DT as P, then GOP will be a formidable combination. I am not sure it will happen. Reason - I am not sure if TC will compromise his Bible boy image.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 18 Mar 2016 01:10

In fact on my contempt scale, Cruz is say 5 but the Elephant Establishment led by Much McConnell is like a 20. THAT is the real problem - for the past 7 years they have done nothing but obstruct and hate - and if u remember, they pretty-much brought the US to its knees in the previous 8 after Clinton had led an era of fabulous growth. So I am all for Trump to swat all of them away. Someone should go check the reality in Trump-run organizations - are his policies really so benighted? I doubt it very much.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 18 Mar 2016 05:31

Enjoy Trump's dog barking Putin attack on Billery, making the headlines

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Mar 2016 09:04

brazil seems on verge of a yellow revolution...

out of the BRICs, brazil is #2 to be hit after #1 Russia.

China is a bit too strong for any mischief

while onlee leaves one more target....low level MSM/EJ/INC attacks are already on...

csaurabh · Post by **csaurabh** » 18 Mar 2016 09:10

LokeshC wrote:
RajeshA wrote:There were always the poor and the rich in America. What has changed is the enormous deindustrialization that has taken place, manufacturing jobs going away to China and Mexico. That means, those Americans who thought they had risen up on the economic ladder, are finding themselves being pushed back into poverty. So it is not poverty that is making the people angry, it is the unstoppable trend to going deeper into poverty that is fueling the rage.

Both Republican and Democratic establishments have sold out the interests of the working class, and Trump is tapping into that anger!

Exactly whats happening. The income for the rich is structured in a highly tax favorable manner and it changes the income growth rates between the rich and the non-rich resulting in highly distorted income/wealth due to compounding effect.

All the militias that you see popping up are an indirect effect of such things. The other one is that a lot of people will be back in EJ churches sooner or later. The four Abrahamic religions are the opium of the victimised (fourth one being communism).

It is not just about Mexicans and China. There has been a huge loss of jobs due to technology automation in the form of softwares and robotics. And that trend is getting worse.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Mar 2016 11:19

things like financial investment advisers , tax filing , banking , road cleaning, security monitoring, manufacturing etc is so highly automated and unmanned now...sometimes its hard to imagine where people really work in the US with its big 300 mil pop. even in construction sites there is never the huge herd of people seen in india..it will mostly few guys moving around slowly with some eqpt.

i guess only in farming, food processing(processed food is big in US), animal rearing and meat farming, truck transport, medical services (huge number of nurses , front end staff, medics, therapists) and teachers (huge number of teachers incl for special needs), police, armed forces, car workshops, defence manufacturing ....these must be the mass employment vehicles ?

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 18 Mar 2016 14:44

I won't take anything trump says now seriously. He will say anything that he thinks will get him nomination. And then for general. If he wins, what he will actually do - is anybody's guess. He has no history, has not spelled any policies in meaningful detail and we know nothing about what team he will bring in etc.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 18 Mar 2016 15:41

Gus wrote:I won't take anything trump says now seriously. He will say anything that he thinks will get him nomination. And then for general. If he wins, what he will actually do - is anybody's guess. He has no history, has not spelled any policies in meaningful detail and we know nothing about what team he will bring in etc.

Gus
Scot Adams has a fabulous piece on his dilbertblog. He echos what you are saying. Trump says anything that he feels will get him the nomination. The quintessential deal maker. Link here below.
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/1410906368 ... mp-con-man

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 18 Mar 2016 15:50

Trump will lose though vs Hillary since she seems to have the African American and Latino vote..

csaurabh · Post by **csaurabh** » 18 Mar 2016 15:52

Unemployment in the US is almost 20% now. And lots of other jobs are low wage service types.

Read this book.. it gives great details.
http://robotswillstealyourjob.com/read

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 18 Mar 2016 16:06

Karanji: [AA/Latino votes..] Neither of which will come out to vote for a WW with an elitist anti-business record.
Trump is a businessman, and mucho macho. If he wins the nomination, it is going to be by running over "The Establishment". That makes him a very attractive candidate for most ppl, sort-of like Jimmy Carter 1976:

Why Not The Best?

As for POTUS policies, the COTUS still hamstrings the POTUS. I don't see either side winning a landslide, and even if the elephants do capture both houses, half of them will be anti-trump, though most will TRY to become Trump-pets to avoid major kicks in the golas. Yes, i think he will make deals, and scare the heck out of a lot of underlings. May close down one or two DupleeCity departments just to show who's boss, like Reagan firing all the air traffic controllers - who misses them?

He will probably build his Mexico border wall - and sell thousands of ladders to Mexico through Trump Ladders Inc. Increase legal immigration from Mexico, with a small fee paid to Troomp Emigraciones Limitades.

He will reduce outsourcing to China - and increase it to Hong Kong via Roud-Mouth Crown Inc.

India - I don't know. I imagine he will come on a grand Imperial Vijit - he'll remind most Indians of Mallya, and they will run glamor articles on his many ex-wives. And executive Ass-istants

North Korea: I think he will hit it off big-time with Dear Leading Fat-Son.
As for Islam relations, look for a gold-plated ogive-topped portal sent as a gift from KSA, like the Statue of Liberty, to be placed at the yacht entrance to Atlantic City casinos.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 18 Mar 2016 17:24

Thanks UB saar. No ji for me. I am nanha onlee. Very interesting. So you think he will win?

habal · Post by **habal** » 18 Mar 2016 17:35

Karan M wrote:Trump will lose though vs Hillary since she seems to have the African American and Latino vote..

70% of african americans were polled to prefer hillary clinton if when she was nominated.
now what about the other 30%. That is what is scaring the demorats. They are going to vote against hillary, then that cooks her goose well.

Same stats for Hispanics, not all of them are solidly behind the demorats though there is a lot of noise at present. In Florida many hispanics would have voted Trump since the only place Rubio got delegates was Miami dade county. Rest don't have no cubans or hispanics registered republicans hain ? hard to believe.

meanwhile a new shocker from New York

The poll of New York state, conducted by Boston’s Emerson College, has Trump dominating his only two remaining competitors in the Empire State with 65 percent of Republicans there backing him. Only 12 percent back Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Trump’s closest competitor, and just one percent support Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

- breitbart

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 18 Mar 2016 19:14

Karan M wrote:Thanks UB saar. No ji for me. I am nanha onlee. Very interesting. So you think he will win?

With x-Bibis like those?

How can he lose? He's been to Houristan and back many times over.

Re: AA/Latinos and HC: The donkeys are on weed if they dream of 70% AA vote.

If u were AA, and you came out to vote last time because hey, Da Bro Himself was running, would you feel like coming out this time just to vote for the (never mind) who tried her best to oppose Da Bro? In November? Taking time off work? Standing in line? I can tell u the results of the small-but-accurate Sample Poll in Ulan Bator:

There's a reason why the KKK are more popular in Alabama and Mississippi among AAs, than the local white Dem. politicians: viz, the KKK are more honest, otherwise all same inside.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 19 Mar 2016 00:09

After April 19, NY Primary, most Republicans would have quietly enlisted themselves as Trump Troopers. Cruz is going to get three good jabs in Arizona on Mar 22, in Wisconsin on Apr 5 and then a good punch in NY on Apr 19. By then everybody would know who is the boss.

In Hillary-vs-Trump match, watch out for the many states which have been changing colors, from purple to red, from blue to purple and from leaning Democrat to being competitive.

After 8 years of Obama, many more people are itching to get rid of the Democrats, than those excited to ward off the "fascist" Trump or those wanting to put another slimy Clinton in the White House.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 19 Mar 2016 00:45

The faces/ Crowd behind Klinton in very photo opportunity do provide the clue on her and her supporters' cukooness & cluelessness that America longing for different kind of leadership. Trump had seen how Modi campaigned in tapping the anger, anguish of Indian voters. He is repeating the same successful formula. Madam C will soon c the door to political exile. The trail of scams, corruptions and many dead bodies will haunt her campaign.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 19 Mar 2016 01:21

As u read on UBCN...
Trump's Mar-a-Lago hires hundreds of foreign workers
by Drew Griffin, Scott Bronstein, Curt Devine and Adam Mintzer @CNNMoney March 18, 2016: 2:37 PM ET

Here's Donald Trump's dilemma: He is running for president on a platform of bringing jobs back to the U.S. and making America Great again.
But at his private club in south Florida, he has filled his staff almost exclusively with imported foreign workers. And he has been doing it for years.
The U.S. Department of Labor has confirmed to CNN that between 2013 and fall 2015, Trump's Mar-a-Lago club posted 250 seasonal job openings and filled just 4 of those jobs with American workers. The club requested the rest of the staff be temporarily imported through the Federal government's H-2B visa process. Basically, Mar-a-Lago brings in its seasonal staff from overseas.

Mar-a-Lago is a mansion that Donald Trump has turned into a members-only private club in Palm Beach, Florida. The wife of New York stockbroker E.F. Hutton built it in 1927. Mrs. Hutton, who would become Marjorie Merriweather Post, used Mar-a-Lago as a winter retreat for her and her wealthy Wall Street friends. Gilded in tile and other decorations, it reeked of the opulence of the pre-Depression roaring 1920s: Think Great Gatsby, flamboyant parties, poolside waiters.

Mar-a-Lago, literally Sea-to-Lake in Spanish, became a National Historic site in 1969. Post passed away in the early 1970s and the mansion was turned over to the federal government to be used as a presidential retreat. It didn't catch on, and was eventually placed on the market.

Trump says he bought Mar-a-Lago in 1985 for $5 million. He then began remodeling the 114-room mansion for use as his personal residence, and in 1995, he opened the home as a club for the super wealthy escaping the harsh winters of the north. Membership fees are $100,000 with annual dues of $14,000. On its website, Mar-a-Lago is called "the greatest mansion ever built."

Mar-A-Lago is seasonal. It's open when it's too cold to play golf in other parts of the country. And it closes when it's too hot to play golf in southern Florida. And that, says Trump, makes it hard to find American workers willing to fill full time service jobs for roughly eight months a year.

Related: What we know about Trump's money

From 2013 to 2015, Mar-a-Lago was approved to hire 246 foreign workers by the U.S. Department of Labor with H-2B visas, which allow U.S. employers to temporarily import foreign workers to fill non-agricultural jobs that can't be filled with Americans.

To get approval for H-2B visas, employers must prove they need extra workers and that they made an effort to recruit domestic workers, contacted everyone who responded to ads and hired all qualified applicants. After receiving approval, employers must petition U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services to bring foreign, temporary workers into the country.
Trump has made the case that he couldn't find American workers. "It's almost impossible to get help," the Republican presidential candidate told CNN last month. "And part of the reason you can't get American people is they want full time jobs."
That is news to Tom Veenstra. He is senior director of support services at the Palm Beach County CareerSource office. It's a free service that links qualified job candidates with employers. And during the past two years, the agency has placed more than 50,000 people in jobs in Palm Beach County. Veenstra says he has no doubt he could fill Mar-a-Lago with U.S. workers.
"We have hundreds of qualified candidates for jobs like these," Veenstra told CNN. "That's what we do here. We help place local residents into jobs like those."
Did Trump use the free service? Only once, Veenstra says. After criticism about its hiring practices, Mar-a-Lago asked the Palm Beach County CareerSource office to send over qualified candidates for a single position. Veenstra says he sent four applicants, one was hired.
Veenstra says there were no problems with the hire as far as he knows, but they never had another request from Mar-a-Lago.
Mar-a-Lago positions paid roughly $10 an hour for maids and housekeepers going up to $13 an hour for cooks, and about $11 for waiters and waitresses.
Related: Trump University controversy ... in 2 minutes
The Department of Labor requires proof that an employer seeking to import workers tried but failed to attract qualified U.S. workers.
Records show Mar-a-Lago appears to have done the bare minimum required by law. According to a CNN analysis of hundreds of pages of Labor Department documents, Mar-a-Lago did not place advertisements in the area's largest newspaper. Instead, ads were placed in a local paper with a small circulation and the ads were routinely posted for just two days, the minimum required by law.
In addition, employer statements on recruitment reports are self-reported, and federal employees told CNN that the Department of Labor does not have the resources to check the accuracy of them.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 19 Mar 2016 02:45

Has this been posted before?

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 19 Mar 2016 03:23

Funny. Only comment I would make is that it gives a one dimensional view of Africa that conforms to what a joe-the-redneck believes it to be.

Africa is much more diverse, even among its elites and rulers, however for the purposes of making fun of Trump I can forgive him for using that narrow focus.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 19 Mar 2016 03:28

LokeshC wrote:Funny. Only comment I would make is that it gives a one dimensional view of Africa that conforms to what a joe-the-redneck believes it to be.

Africa is much more diverse, even among its elites and rulers, however for the purposes of making fun of Trump I can forgive him for using that narrow focus.

Trevor Noah is a South African comedian, half Swiss half Xhosa.

About growing up in apartheid-era South Africa -

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 19 Mar 2016 03:32

Or if you were referring to the writers of the Daily Show, keep in mind, they also did this a very incisive piece (though still funny)

Spot the Africa

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Mar 2016 03:36

Habal those 30% AA are in industrial north where he promises to bring back jobs. With Chinese connections, Billary Bibi is not credible there.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Mar 2016 05:32

CNN is to trump, what undietv is to namo.

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 19 Mar 2016 05:35

Viv S.
I know that guy is from South Africa.

My (nitpick) was that even if he wanted to paint a different picture of Africa than what the stereotype is, he would not be able to. But that was not the point of the videos and africa was merely a side-kick to make his point. So its cool by me (and funny as hell)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Mar 2016 05:11

Will Trump clinch the nomination before the convention in Cleveland? Needs 1237 delegates. Has 695 to date.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wil ... onvention/

He will most likely fall short by ~ 30.

I think he will beat that.

habal · Post by **habal** » 23 Mar 2016 06:03

i think he will make it easily, most of the delegates cruz is winning is where GoP establishment manipulates on his behalf.

like here

Montana Republicans are asking the U.S. Supreme Court to step in as early as this week and force the state to “close” its upcoming primary so only GOP voters can participate -- in a case that could pose complications for Donald Trump.

The Republican front-runner so far has done better in "open" primaries, where members of both parties can vote, than in "closed" primaries limited to Republican voters only.

Montana, set to vote June 7, has had an “open primary” since 1912.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/03 ... trump.html

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 23 Mar 2016 06:13

What is the problem? It is not as if TC is going to win it because only GOP members are voting. DT has already picked up the momentum of being the possible winner. Unless TC gets significant gains in near future, it will be DT all the way.

habal · Post by **habal** » 23 Mar 2016 11:07

>> What is the problem?

'closed primaries' or caucus can be manipulated by GoP establishment.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Mar 2016 14:07

Ted Cruz's strategy and perhaps even of those who have suspended their candidacy like Marco Rubio is not anymore to stop Donald Trump, but to blackmail him, practically force him to concede a say in the Administration to them, but as is quite apparent, to also others like Mitt Romney and rest of the establishment.

Utah for example has six electoral votes in the Presidential election. It is obviously clear that Donald Trump hardly has any traction there, and Mitt Romney has made it clear that Utah is his personal Mormon fiefdom, and if Trump wants those 6 votes, he better make a deal with him.

The Republicans are trying to tell Trump, he can't be "his own man" and that he has to bow to the establishment, one way or another, or else they are willing to let Hillary come to power again.

Any Republican candidate actually has zero leeway. Any margin of Republican win is mostly always razor thin, and so he can't really hope to the electoral college unless the whole Republican party plays along.

Unlike previous Republican nominations, in this case it is not a question of which Republican gets to carry the torch. With Trump, it is a question of whether Republicans allow an outsider to do so. So Trump really doesn't have much of a choice than to give in to to the establishment.

Even if Trump wins 1237 delegates, he can't win the Presidency without other Republican power-brokers like Mitt Romney and others.

As far as Utah win is concerned, that is a Mitt Romney win and not really a Ted Cruz win. In fact Mitt Romney has not endorsed anybody. In Ohio he was making a case for John Kasich and in Florida he spoke in favor of Marco Rubio. Most probably Mitt Romney is simply the face for other establishment types.

For Ted Cruz, it is actually the end of the road. Utah was going to be his last big win, though he could still do well in places like New Mexico, Oregon and California due to the Latino vote, but NM and OR may not hurt Trump much as the allotment of delegates is proportional. The fact that there are no caucases left and no more "deeply conservative" states left, in general he would have a hard time. John Kasich too is an also ran!

Wisconsin and New York would make it amply clear that Trump is going to win the nomination. Most of the Republicans would then quietly join in, however it doesn't mean that they would throw in their complete support behind Trump. For that Trump would have to make a deal!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Mar 2016 15:41

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 23 Mar 2016 19:52

i overheard two middle aged semi middle class british men (in the UK) the other day - first they were ranting about syrian refugees all coming to the UK with a single minded desire to live off the taxpayer... then they switched to talking about trump - and the consensus was that no matter what he says - what he is doing is 'shaking up the establishment and thats a good thing'

so if two brits can think like this about von trumpfo then imagine what joe sixpack is thinking...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Mar 2016 23:24

RajeshA, Very good analysis of yesterday's Republican primary.

Romney who didn't win in 2012 is going around playing power broker from no where.

So called establishment dodos (soon to be extinct) are rallying behind him a non-performer.

Toady news is low energy JEB has endorsed "Canadian" Cruz.

Yesterday Cruz was endorsing patrolling Muslim neighborhoods in US after Brussels blasts! And at same time rants about Trump wanting to limit immigration till matters are sorted out.

538 page before Arizona shows Trump would be short by ~30 with 70% probability.

Could be better today.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 23 Mar 2016 23:42

I'm afraid Romney can't broker anything. Not after going hammer-and-tongs against Trump's shaky business record.

The Daily Show again has a hilarious segment on that topic. Must watch -

The Daily Show - Donald Trump's Victory Speech/Infomercial