Eastern Europe/Ukraine

[anmol]

nationalinterest.org/feature/the-slow-death-the-old-global-order-10263?page=show

The Slow Death of the Old Global Order
nationalinterest.org | Robert W. Merry
April 15, 2014

In the spring of 2012, The National Interest produced a special issue under the rubric of “The Crisis of the Old Order: The Crumbling Status Quo at Home and Abroad.” The thesis was that the old era of relative global stability, forged through the crucibles of the Great Depression and World War II, was coming unglued. In introducing the broad topic to readers, TNI editors wrote, “Only through a historical perspective can we fully understand the profound developments of our time and glean, perhaps only dimly, where they are taking us. One thing is clear: they are taking us into a new era. The only question is how much disruption, chaos and bloodshed will attend the transition from the Old Order to whatever emerges to replace it.”

Since publication of that special issue of the magazine, events have seemed to bolster the thesis that the current global situation and the American domestic political situation are inherently unstable, and stability will return only with the emergence of some kind of new order. Leaving aside the U.S. domestic scene for purposes of this digression, the gathering global crisis got a penetrating survey the other day from William Pfaff, the longtime geopolitical analyst for the International Herald Tribune (recently renamed the International New York Times).

Pfaff said the world faces an “international disorder unmatched since the interwar 1930s,” fostered by the ongoing Ukraine crisis, the “self-destructive forces” of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, growing instability within the world of Islam, and the “serious risk of collapse” of the European Union. Pfaff notes with a small measure of relief that the world isn’t beset these days by ideological dictatorships on the march or any new waves of totalitarianism. Today’s problems, he says, are merely “confusion, incompetence, and intellectual and moral disorder.” He adds: “But these are bad enough, in an over-armed world.”

What’s most troubling about all this is that today’s national leaders seem utterly lacking in any serious consciousness of just how dangerous the global situation is. The current Ukraine crisis, for example, is the product of a long-term Western tendency (the word “strategy" hardly qualifies here, given the lack of any coherent logic involved) to push eastward through what once were the buffer territories of Eastern Europe and press right up to the Russian border.

Though highly provocative, this didn’t generate any serious crisis when Russia remained weak after the Soviet collapse and the eastward push didn’t extend into territories that for centuries had been part of Russia’s traditional sphere of influence. But the United States, European Union and NATO remained blithely unmindful of the consequences when they kept pushing as Russia gained sufficient power to resist incursions into its areas of crucial national interest. What were the leaders of these Western entities thinking?

Pfaff puts that question a little differently: “Why Should Slavic and Orthodox-Uniate Ukraine, its history painfully intertwined with Russia’s, be made a member of what was and still essentially is Charlemagne’s post–Roman Europe?” With one sentence he places today’s sordid events surrounding Ukraine into a broad historical perspective of more than a millennium.

For that matter, adds Pfaff, “Why does Turkey belong in Christian Europe?" He wonders if President Obama, should he be asked such questions, could give a considered and historically grounded answer. “Or does the machinery of foreign-policy making grind relentlessly along behind Mr. Obama’s back, or beyond his attention?”

Good question. And it’s particularly intriguing given the machinations of that meddling bureaucrat, Victoria Nuland, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, who worked behind the scenes to foment the uprising that eventually ousted the duly-elected Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych. She even identified the man who should replace Yanukovych after his ouster and—presto!—he did indeed emerge as Ukraine’s interim leader. It turns out that the United States has spent some $5 billion in fostering “democratic institutions” in Ukraine designed to nudge the country away from Russian sway.

Saner heads would have understood just how dangerous this kind of activity can be. And so some questions intrude: Did anyone in the State Department inform President Obama that this was going on? If anyone had, would the president or his informant have understood the potentially incendiary nature of such diplomatic intrusiveness? Or was the president simply left in the dark, as Pfaff has suggested, while his minions engaged in activity destined to create an unnecessary crisis in U.S.-Russian relations and possibly unleash destabilizing ethnic tensions in a crucial corner of the world?

For historical perspective, it’s worth noting that we look back now with a certain disdain upon the heads of state grappling with events leading to World War I. Those events ended a century of relative stability and peace in Europe, and the men who let that grand epoch pass are seen in history as hapless, out of touch, even stupid. In fact, they weren’t stupid, but they were out of touch and that rendered them hapless in the face of events they didn’t understand.

President Obama and those around him aren’t stupid either, but they don’t seem to understand the nature of our time and the challenges posed by a fading era. They seem incapable of grappling with the kinds of broad historical questions posed by William Pfaff.

But the problem doesn’t reside only with the current administration. There seems to be a zeitgeist in play that retards the ability of our leaders and intellectuals to grasp the transformative nature of our time and hence the havoc besetting the globe. Pfaff is equally hard on George W. Bush and his father, George H. W. Bush, particularly regarding what he calls “the Muslim conflagration.” He writes: “Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Pakistan—in all of them, a President Bush, or President Obama, together with his accomplices, has passed their way, sowing annihilation."

He’s right, of course, and equally correct in dismissing the ongoing efforts by U.S. officials to find a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict “in the face of the manifest unwillingness of Israel to allow the conflict to be solved on any terms that do not expel all the Palestinians from the Palestinian Occupied Territories, and award these to Israel (God’s lands, therefore Zionist Israel’s: Sheldon Adelson, sales agent)."

One could argue that it isn’t in America’s interest to push Israel on this matter, though that is eminently debatable. More to the point, though, is the haplessness of a nation continually going back to the well with high expectations of finding water, when in fact the well has been dry for decades. That kind of behavior by any nation denotes a clear lack of seriousness.

Seriousness is what the times call for. We are living through a crisis of the old order, and it demands new thinking, new cautions, new understandings of the profound challenges of this pregnant historical interregnum. If Western leaders continue along the course they’ve been on in the post-Cold War period, they are likely to go down in history in much the same light as those sadly obtuse leaders who presided over the onset of World War I.

Robert W. Merry is political editor of The National Interest and the author of books on American history and foreign policy. His most recent book is Where They Stand: The American Presidents in the Eyes of Voters and Historians.

Image: Flickr/Omer Wazir/CC by-sa 2.0

[merlin]

That's an interesting article.

[Philip]

Putin visits the front!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... y-mariupol
Ukraine: deadly clashes in Mariupol as Vladimir Putin visits annexed Crimea
Russian president greeted with patriotic fervour at second world war commemoration, while at least five are killed in southern city

Vladimir Putin made a triumphant first visit to Crimea on Friday, as the region held its first Victory Day commemorations since it was annexed by Russia two months ago. But the gravity of the crisis gripping the rest of Ukraine was underscored by more deadly clashes in the southern city of Mariupol.

Hospitals confirmed that at least five people had died and 40 had been wounded, according to Anna Neistat of Human Rights Watch, who had visited hospitals in the city. She said most had bullet wounds to the legs and chest from automatic weapons, and in one hospital, out of 15 casualties, six were policemen. Two dead bodies were visible on the street outside the police building, one of them of a policeman.

Ukraine's interior minister, Arsen Avakov, said on his Facebook page that 20 separatists had been killed and four captured, during an operation to free the police station from "terrorists". Locals in Mariupol had a different version, claiming the police had crossed to the side of the separatists, and both had been attacked by the army. However, with the chief of police supposedly taken hostage by the separatists, it seems likely that the police, like much of the city's population, had been split over whom to support.
Man outside Mariupol city hall. A man jumps over a burning barricade outside Mariupol city hall. Photograph: Marko Djurica/Reuters

Mariupol is one of at least a dozen cities in eastern Ukraine in which pro-Russian groups are agitating to follow Crimea's lead in seceding from Ukraine.

In Crimea, the Russian president spoke before an adoring crowd about the "return to the motherland" of a region that was once part of Russia. Putin later said that other countries should "show regard for our legal interests, including the restoration of historical justice and the right to self-determination".

The patriotism reached fever pitch in Sevastopol before his arrival as Russian fighting vehicles, Putin's favourite biker gang and militiamen who helped Crimea break away from Ukraine paraded through the city.

Tens of thousands of people chanted "Russia!", "Victory!" and "Thank you!" as 1,000 troops, 60 military vehicles, thousands of veterans and other groups passed by over two hours.

Putin watched an air and naval show featuring 70 aircraft to symbolise the 70th anniversary of Sevastopol's liberation by Soviet forces, which lost more than 200,000 in fighting.

"We're all happy to be part of Russia. Hooray for veterans!" shouted seven-year-old Mikhail Rybak as onlookers cheered him.

A reported 97% of voters chose to join Russia in a referendum in Crimea in March which did not include an option to remain part of Ukraine. The vote was boycotted by most Crimean Tatars, who make up about 15% of the peninsula's population.
Pro-Russia militiants in Donetsk Pro-Russia militiants take part in a Victory Day rally in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk. Photograph: Alexander Khudoteply/AFP/Getty Images

A referendum is also planned in east Ukraine on Sunday , which will ask residents if they wish to create a "Donetsk People's Republic". Putin said on Wednesday that the separatists should postpone their referendum, but they refused to do so. The separatist movement is divided between those who want to join Russia and those who merely want more autonomy within Ukraine, but as the military operations continue in the east of the country opinions are becoming more polarised.

In Mariupol, there was a mood of rage after the Ukrainian army left, intensified by the fact that many people were intoxicated from the earlier Victory Day celebrations. Several fights broke out in the crowd, but the main anger was reserved for Kiev.

"We will never live with these filthy fascists again. . Ukraine as a country is over," said Vladimir, 27. "Imagine coming here on Victory Day and doing this."

At Café Arbat, where pools of blood were visible on the ground, one of the waitresses, Lena, said that three unarmed men had been shot by Ukrainian soldiers.

"I wasn't for one side or the other until today, but after seeing this, I have the feeling I want to take up a weapon myself and kill these people," she said. "I'm 50 years old and they made me fall on the ground and hide from bullets, in my own cafe, in my own town."The separatists also seized an armoured personnel carrier that had been abandoned by the Ukrainian army due to engine problems, and towed it through the city, waving the flag of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic from the top.

Earlier in the day, several thousand people gathered in Donetsk's Lenin Square for the victory celebrations. The mood was heavily influenced by the current situation, with several speakers comparing the victory over the Nazis to the "fascist junta" in Kiev.

The few living second world war veterans on the stage were joined by fighters from the self-proclaimed People's Republic of Donetsk, many of whom were armed with Kalashnikovs, sniper rifles or, in one case, a giant mallet.

Officials said on Friday that the referendum planned for Sunday was not about independence or joining Russia, but merely about giving the region more autonomy.

However, speeches from the stage were unequivocal.

"We are Russians, and Russia is our homeland," said Denis Pushilin, the de facto head of the separatist movement. "Russians here are not occupiers. They are our brothers."

Victory Day celebrations in Kiev took place amid tight security, with police reinforced by pro-Ukrainian self-defence groups. The cancellation of a traditional military parade meant festivities were more modest than usual.

Many locals were wearing red poppies rather than the black and orange St George ribbon representing the Soviet Union's victory in the second world war that has been widely worn by anti-Kiev insurgents.

"The St George ribbon is associated with events in the east where they are killing people … traitors wear the St George ribbon," said Galina Prikhodko, 26, who had come to lay flowers near the city's Motherland statue.

As night fell in Mariupol, local separatists rebuilt barricades in the centre of the city and returned to the local administration building, now half gutted by fire, which has been captured and abandoned twice now by Ukrainian forces in the past week. Many expected the army to return overnight. Videos from earlier in the day appeared to show Ukrainian soldiers firing on unarmed protesters, while others showed protesters in the crowd with weapons returning fire.

Among the crowds, however, there was no doubt who was to blame. A large group of men set upon a lone dissenter who said he thought the region and Kiev should live in peace, and he had a beer bottled smashed on his head before fleeing the square.

"This is awful of course, all this drinking, and low-cultured behaviour," said Nina Tuvayeva, a pensioner looking on. "I'm against all of this, and I wanted a united Ukraine, a country that would be like Switzerland or Belgium, but they don't want that, so now our only hope is Russia. Ukraine is over."

Ukraine crisis: Bloody assault in Mariupol dashes hopes of avoiding civil war
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 47972.html

The dead and injured being carried out of a burning building; more bodies lying in the street, prolonged exchanges of fire as armoured carriers smashed through barricades; and, with the violence, anger and calls for revenge.

This was Mariupol, in eastern Ukraine, after a day of bloody strife that slid Ukraine further towards civil war. The country’s caretaker government can be accused of trying to blow out flickering hopes of peace by launching a military operation on one of the most revered anniversaries in the Russian-speaking half of the country – the commemoration of victory over Nazi Germany.

The military action was accompanied by stridently aggressive rhetoric from politicians in Kiev who were crowing about the numbers of “terrorists” killed and threatening further lethal punishment.

By the evening there were differing body counts ranging from 20 to five, with around another 25 injured. But the accuracy of statistics has meant little in this confrontation. What matters is the perception. For many in this port on the Azov Sea today greatly reinforced the view – relentlessly promoted by the separatist leadership – that fascists from the west of the country are coming to attack.


“This is not about 2014 in Ukraine, this is taking us back to Berlin in 1945, that is what they want to avenge, the defeat of their Nazi masters”, was the view of Captain Zorin Aleksandr Nicolaivitch, who had spent 18 years in the Navy. He was in his full dress uniform, with two rows of medals, rushing to one of the places of killing from the parade for the Great Patriotic War.

“Look, this is the only weapon that I, or anyone else, has around here”, said the 63-year-old retired officer, lifting up the ceremonial dagger at his belt. No, only one side came armed, wanting to fight, today. It wasn’t the people of Mariupol.”

Arms, however, appeared to have been a key issue behind what had taken place. There were two conflicting narratives. The Kiev administration’s version was that a mob had taken over the central police station, with the primary aim of getting hold of its extensive armoury, and then opened fire on government troops, killing some policemen in the process.

Residents, as well as protesters, insisted this was a lie. The police, they maintained, had shown great sympathy towards them, and the Ukrainian military, with a band of armed fellow travellers, had wanted to take control of the weapons and had attacked the station precisely for that reason.

A body lying in front of the station, with firemen trying to control the flames, was that of a policeman: his uniform hat and a mobile telephone had been placed on him. “Let me show you something”, said Viktor Nicolaivich, trying to keep his voice calm as he pulled up the covering blanket. One arm of the officer was encased in plaster. “He couldn’t even pull the trigger to defend himself against the fascist ********. We know this man, I was with him yesterday, he is one of our local policeman, we would never want to harm people like him.”

Vladimir Putin with Second World War veterans in Sevastopol yesterday Vladimir Putin with Second World War veterans in Sevastopol yesterday (Getty Images)
The city’s police commander, Valeryi Androsehuk, was missing. The Ukrainian authorities claimed that he had been kidnapped by militants; the protesters maintained that he had either perished in the flames, or been arrested. The chief had refused, they said, to hand over the headquarters to the soldiers.

Across the road lay another corpse, that of one of the “fascists” who had been with the soldiers, said the residents, inevitably labelled a member of the Right Sector, an extremist group who allegedly carry out the government’s dirty work. The man wore civilian clothing, a black top and jeans, with an armband in Ukrainian colours. “This man was shooting at the police building, I saw him,” Valentina Semoronova said. “Then he got wounded and fell; the policemen were shooting back. The soldiers did nothing to help him. All they did was take the rifle with them when they left.”

In the course of the next confusing hour the armband disappeared, snatched off by a collaborator, according to some people who were present. There were mutters that it was a Ukrainian journalist, although we had not seen any present at the scene.

Such charges often lead to an outbreak of hostility towards the media. But here the crowd, though angry, was keen to put over its side. The people stood under raindrops blackened by ash pleading that two things must be made clear to the outside world; they did not have guns and they were Ukrainians, not Russians. They produced their driving licences and passports.

To Arsen Avakov, many of these people were terrorists. Ukraine’s acting Interior Minister had been a voracious user of Facebook to chronicle military operations, some of the accounts wildly inaccurate. He wrote today: “A terrorist group of about 60 men armed with automatic weapons attacked the police headquarters.

War veterans at a ceremony marking Victory Day in Donetsk yesterday War veterans at a ceremony marking Victory Day in Donetsk yesterday (Getty Images)
“About 20 terrorists were destroyed and four taken prisoner. To those who come with weapons and who shoot… To them there can be only one answer from the Ukrainian state – annihilation.” Apart from the two bodies outside the station, I saw three others being carried out; it was unclear whether they were dead or had suffered severe injuries from the fire. Colleagues and residents reported three others killed.

Mr Avakov also stressed the involvement of several branches of security in the mission, including special forces, National Guard and the Army. This was seen as an attempt to assuage criticism in Kiev and the west of the country of the current “anti-terrorist offensive” with limited success and accusations of lack of co?ordination.

But Mariupol has also become the arena for a number of shadowy bunches of gunmen. Two days ago, an unit dressed in black combat uniform had carried out unprovoked assaults on protesters outside another police station. There had been contradictory accounts about who they were from Kiev authorities – National Guard, special forces, Ministry of Interior police. One theory is that they were mercenaries bankrolled by Igor Kolomoisky, an oligarch and Ukrainian nationalist, who had previously offered a bounty for the capture of Russian “agents”.

Elena Rukoshova, a 26?year?old former kindergarten teacher, was beside her friend, Jaroslav, when he was beaten up and arrested in the last incident involving the men in black. She had rushed to the police station from the parade this morning to see them and other forces involved in action again. “We are seeing something like this every day in Mariupol now. The Kiev people want to show they are in control by capturing this place, maybe they think this would be easier than Slovyansk (a separatist stronghold) but there will be a lot of bloodshed if they keep on attacking people like this.”

The city hall at Mariupol had changed hands repeatedly between separatists and Ukrainian nationalists in the last week. Today’s fighting began after troops had tried to seize it back again, firing volleys over the heads of protesters. At nightfall the building had been trashed, some of the contents used to form fresh barricades, the rest thrown into bonfires started with tyres.

Carloads of men were arriving to take up positions, some of them armed. They were there, they said, to prepare for a referendum on secession organised for Sunday by the Peoples’ Republic of Donbass. “The junta [Kiev] will try to disrupt that, so we are here”, said one man who refused to identify himself. “But we won’t have to wait until then, the soldiers would be back tomorrow, we will be waiting for them.”

[Philip]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... ons-russia

In Ukraine, Putin is running rings around the west
Sanctions only boost the Russian leader's popularity at home. There is little the west can do – apart from talk
Orlando Figes
The Guardian, Friday 9 May 2014 21.00 BST
Putin at Red Squre victory parade
Vladimir Putin, with his prime minister Dmitry Medvedev (right), at a military parade in Red Square on 9 May, to mark the 69th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany. Photograph: Mikhail Klimentyev/Ria Novosti/EPA

Although it was ignored, Putin's call for pro-Russia rebels to delay their referendum in east Ukraine is a promising development. It is a sign that the Kremlin may be willing to halt the slide into civil war – and bring the warring parties back to the "national dialogue" on Ukraine's constitutional future envisaged by the Geneva agreement.

But the west is kidding itself if it thinks this is the result of the sanctions it imposed last week. Putin's move is more probably part of a broader game. He is subverting the Kiev government and threatening invasion to push through his preferred option: the federalisation of Ukraine on Russian terms.

If anything, the sanctions will be counterproductive – too weak to subdue the Russian bear but strong enough to provoke it. They stop short of sweeping bans on oil and gas exports, on which Russia heavily depends.

Gazprom, the state energy giant, is the Kremlin's biggest weapon against Ukraine, and sanctions against it would seriously hurt Russia's stagnating economy: a loss of revenues from fuel exports might lead to a full-blown crisis for the country's creaking infrastructure and welfare state – and perhaps a broader opposition to the Putin government than the young urban professionals who joined the protest rallies of 2011-12.

But the Russian government has huge reserves to withstand such a crisis, and the EU cannot stop importing fuel without affecting its own economies. About one-third of the EU's gas supplies is imported from Russia. In the new democracies of eastern Europe the figure is twice as high. Putin knows the west is divided – and that, short of military intervention, there is little it can do to stop his undermining of Ukraine.

And Europe, least of all the UK, won't hurt its own business interests. Britain has for years allowed Russian oligarchs to offload their dirty money in its banks, buy up London mansions, football clubs and newspapers, and send their children to elite British schools and universities. Bob Dudley, BP's chief executive, last month announced it would be business as usual in Russia. BP has a 20% share in Rosneft, the Russian state oil company, whose boss, Igor Sechin, is included in the latest US sanctions list.

But Putin's confidence is based on more than the realpolitik of international trade. The Ukrainian crisis has seen his approval ratings soar to a staggering 82%, according to the independent Russian polling centre Levada (not far below his 88% rating in September 2008, just after Russia had defeated Georgia in the war in South Ossetia). We may think he's mad and bad, but ordinary Russians mostly think Putin is the type of strong, patriotic leader Russia needs to defend its interests in the world.

This is where sanctions are likely to be counterproductive. They will give Putin a convenient excuse for economic hardships (largely caused by his cronies' theft and squandering of Russia's riches over many years), and help him to unite the country against its western "enemies".

Many of Putin's actions in Ukraine have as much to do with domestic as foreign politics. Fearful of the Kiev revolution spreading to Moscow, he has taken up the Russian nationalist cause to reinforce his authoritarian regime.

Government control of media has been tightened. Kremlin propaganda talks of "fascists", "spies", "fifth columnists" and "traitors to the motherland" – eliciting memories of the Stalinist terror. The Russians are being told to prepare for sacrifice in the event of long-term sanctions by the west.

The last thing the west should do is send in troops, or give military backing to a Ukrainian offensive against pro-Russia rebels in the east. That would start a civil war and probably provoke a Russian invasion. Sanctions against Putin's personal wealth might have an effect. The Americans say they know where his billions are stashed away by his handlers in western banks. But short of painful fuel embargoes, there is little the west and Ukraine can do except talk to the Russians. And that is the only way – for Russia must be part of the solution to this crisis.

[Rudradev]

Mid 18th century saw the Eastward shift in Europe from Western Europe. This gave rise to three states:Prussia, Russia and Austria.
Prussia expanded to become Germany. Austria expanded with Hungary and declined to become a tourist destination. And Russia expanded, transformed and came back.

The 19th and 20th century were the tussle between Eastern Europe three states and Western Europe. The Western Europe question was settled by two world wars and one Cold War.


What we are seeing is the last struggles of WE thought process on EE with the former adopting older EE practices to bring down EE!!!

Not quite accurate Ramana garu in the case of Austria. Austria (modern) has existed since the 1430s, when the Habsburgs occupied the throne of the Holy Roman Empire and controlled it for the next 350 years. Back then it was a formidable power... its royal family were cousins of the Spanish monarchs who were looting the Americas, and it actually had a navy that prevailed over Ottomans at the battle of Lepanto (quite something for a landlocked power!) Austria was eventually weakened by Turkish invasions, 30 years war (it was Catholic), and Napoleonic attacks, and actually declined to become a mere regional Balkan/Carpathian strongman in mid 18th century. Much of Prussia's rise could be attributed to loss of Austrian influence in its north/western near abroad... Austria got hammered by the Prussians in the 1860s and its terminal decline began there.

Prussia's rise happened dramatically fast from the remnants of Confederation of the Rhine post Napoleon. Russia, similarly grew by accretion around the Muscovy Grand Duchy and reached its height in mid-18th as you say.

[Rudradev]

Actually Ramana I think the historical parallel is more like this:

Players on the European chessboard have employed two broad categories of stratagems involving the restructuring of nation states. One is partitioning neighbours in their own near abroad so that they cannot become a threat. Napoleon did this with the Confederation of the Rhine (breaking future Germany into 390 tiny principalities). Molotov and von Ribbentrop did this to Poland in the 1930s. In the 1990s, UK/France/Germany inflicted this on Yugoslavia. This is the more obvious method.

The other, more insidious method is to promote unprecedented cohesion between smaller territories and help to "manufacture" a new nation-state which changes equations by posing a new threat to established rivals. Prussia, some believe, was one such exercise that effectively undermined both Austria, on its southeast, and France, on its west, as contenders for European supremacy. The efforts of Garibaldi, Mazzini and Cavour (which effectively consolidated modern Italy and drastically reduced the Pope's power... and coincidentally, also French and Austrian power) were also supported from certain external centers.

Thus far the more obvious, centrifugal techniques have been used on territories of the former Soviet Union to divide the Russian near abroad and create several rentier states (such as the Baltic republics) that could be used to needle Moscow while remaining dependent on Western beneficence. Ukraine, however, was a nation-state (within its present boundaries) only by an accident of history; it had been stitched together administratively by various Tsars and subsequently Soviet premiers as a contiguous territorial buffer, but as a nation of people it was riven by fault-lines as deep as those between the Serbs and Croats (in fact, Ukrainian collaborators with the Nazis in many way parallel the Croatian Ustasha in the role they played during WWII).

What the West wanted in EE was to forge a new Prussia in Moscow's backyard. It would have the full support of international financial and political institutions, just as Prussia/Germany itself originally enjoyed during the mid-18th. It would be groomed for admission as a full member of the EU, implicitly conferring a legitimacy to united Ukrainian nationhood that otherwise derived only from Soviet precedent. The object was to set up a state that would eventually inflict on Russia what the original Prussia did to France and Austria... knocked them out of the running for European domination in the late 19th through much of the 20th centuries.

Qui bono?

[Philip]

Rudra,nice mention about Lepanto.Help came from the Spanish too.Major factor.At the fabulous Drassanes maritime museum in Barcelona,a must for any maritime buff,one can see a full replica/original of one of the Spanish ships that took part in the battle.True.
Europe is divided between the remnants of the "Holy Roman Empire" (HRE) and the Orthodox Christians (OC),mostly Slavs.This is just another fratricidal spat amongst so-called "Christians".Wonderful Christian love being displayed by the rulers of the HRE towards their brethren of the OC!

The leader of the "Donkey" party squatting in the House of White,is displaying in splendid fashion the acknowledged wisdom if that loveable animal.In typical style,the "braying" from the stables of the House of White echoed by fellow quadrupeds of the nasty alliance in Europe,from the moron of the "Hall of White" and downstream,now plan to "cut off Russian gas supplies" and help Ukraine by collective farting the other way down the pipelines! How the Euro-peons hope to replace their dependence upon Russian supplies is anyone's guess.It is going to be the people of western Europe who will shiver and shake cometh the winter chills.But what is evident is that it looks like a classic case of "cutting off one's nose to spite one's face".

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 41096.html
Ukraine crisis EXCLUSIVE: US and Europe planning to ‘cut off’ Russia’s gas supply

Exclusive: G7 leaders are expected to sign off on an 'emergency response plan' to assist Ukraine this winter if its neighbour restricts gas supplies

Oliver Wright Author
Whitehall Editor
Friday 09 May 2014

Britain is drawing up plans with the US and other European countries to “disarm” the threat of President Vladimir Putin using Russian gas and oil supplies as “a weapon” against Ukraine and its Eastern European neighbours.

Next month, David Cameron and other G7 leaders are expected to sign off on an “emergency response plan” to assist Ukraine this winter if Russia restricts gas supplies.

At the same time, G7 energy ministers this week agreed a plan to eliminate Europe’s reliance on Russian oil and gas over the longer term and prevent energy security being used as political bargaining chip by the Kremlin.

Russia currently supplies around 30 per cent of all gas consumed within Europe and more than 50 per cent of the gas used by Ukraine.

In 2006, when the Russian state-controlled energy producer Gazprom turned off supplies through its Ukrainian pipeline Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy and Poland reported gas pressure in their pipelines fell by 30 per cent.

While only a small fraction of gas used by the UK comes from Russia, any restriction in supply has a dramatic impact on prices.

Under the G7 proposals, support would be given to build several new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals across Europe, while the US would lift restrictions on the export of shale gas.

At the same time, the EU will invest in new pipelines to move gas from West to East and increase supply routes from North Africa.

Japan is also understood to be prepared to re-start some of its nuclear plants that were mothballed in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. Japan is now one of the largest importers of LNG, which has pushed up prices to record levels.

Senior Government sources said the ongoing crisis had “concentrated minds”, particularly in Europe, over the energy threat and said there was for the first time a “clear consensus” to take action.

Next month, David Cameron and other G7 leaders are expected to sign off on an “emergency response plan” to assist Ukraine this winter if Russia restricts gas supplies Next month, David Cameron and other G7 leaders are expected to sign off on an “emergency response plan” to assist Ukraine this winter if Russia restricts gas supplies (Getty Images) “The diversification of sources and routes for fossil fuels is essential,” the G7 communique stated.

“No country should depend totally on one supplier. Nor should energy be used as a means of political coercion or a threat to security.”

Ed Davey, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary who represented Britain at the G7 talks in Rome, told The Independent that unless action was taken now Russia would “undoubtedly continue to use energy as a weapon”.

“It is completely unacceptable for President Putin to use Russia’s gas and oil supplies as a weapon to exert control and power over Ukraine – or any other country,” he said.

“But this is not the first time he has done this, so we have to take a stand this time, or he will undoubtedly continue to use energy as a weapon.”

Mr Davey said that the G7 had agreed a process that, over the longer term, would “disarm the threat”. But he added that in the short term there would be a plan in place within the next few weeks to support Ukraine’s energy needs this winter if there is a Russia switch-off of gas.

“We will be drawing up an emergency winter response if Russia threatens its gas supplies, which will be discussed again at the G7 Heads of State meeting next month.”

A Downing Street source confirmed that Mr Cameron “fully backed” the strategy, adding that it was possible that the G7 leader summit in Brussels could “go further”.

“We will be examining the full range of options available,” they added.

[Austin]

EU shouldnt start war with Russia over Ukraine - French FM

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius criticized Moscow's stand on Ukraine but said EU should not engage into armed conflict with Russia, the Washington Post reported Friday.

"We cannot accept the annexation [of Crimea] or the fact that Ukraine would be controlled or invaded. On the other hand, we should not go to war with Russia. In between, you have diplomacy and sanctions to exert pressure," Fabius said in an interview with the newspaper.

French minister added that Ukraine' presidential election are necessary as the country does not have a legitimate leader.

"If actions are taken [by Russia] to make them impossible or to try and delegitimize them, we shall have to increase sanctions. On the contrary, if efforts are made in that direction, there is no reason [to] enhance [sanctions]," said Fabius, commenting on possible additional sanctions against Moscow.

Answering the question about Europe's dependence on Russian gas supplies, the minister noted that Iran's help 'can be efficient'. Fabius also added that France has not yet made a decision on Mistral helicopter ships deal.

"Many people have commercial interests with Russia. As far as this case is concerned, the decision by the government will be taken in October."

Fabius said earlier Monday that Paris was considering canceling the 1,2-billion-euro Mistral deal if Moscow provokes further escalation in Ukraine.

The remarks came after the US and EU imposed sanctions on senior Russian officials following a referendum in Ukraine's Crimea in which voters overwhelmingly supported secession and reunification with Russia.

Under a June 2011 contract signed between Russia and France, the first French Mistral-class amphibious assault ship, named Vladivostok, will be delivered to Russia by the year-end, while the second warship, the Sevastopol, is due to arrive in 2015.

The ships are capable of carrying 16 helicopters, four landing craft, 70 armored vehicles, and 450 soldiers and are expected to be deployed with Russia's Pacific Fleet.

[Austin]

Putin Going After Chinese Money to Sustain Sagging Russian Economy

[pankajs]

The Independent ‏@Independent 1h

The storm breaks in Ukraine http://ind.pn/1j5Fnhw pic.twitter.com/CqAiqHNWQM

The dead and injured are carried out of a burning building; more bodies lying in the street; prolonged exchanges of fire as armoured carriers smash through barricades; and, with the violence, anger and calls for revenge.

That was Mariupol after a day of bloody strife which slid Ukraine further towards civil war.

The country’s caretaker government can be accused of trying to blow out flickering hopes of peace by launching a military operation on one of the most revered anniversaries in the Russian-speaking half of the country, the commemoration of victory over Nazi Germany.

The military action is accompanied by stridently aggressive rhetoric from politicians in Kiev who are crowing about the numbers of “terrorists” killed and threatening further lethal punishment.

By the evening there are differing body counts ranging from 20 to five, with around another 25 injured. But the accuracy of statistics has meant little in this confrontation. What matters is the perception. For many in this port on the Azov Sea, today greatly reinforced the view – relentlessly promoted by the separatist leadership – that fascists from the west of the country are coming to attack.

[pankajs]

Reuters India ‏@ReutersIndia 15m

Kiev tells east Ukraine rebels vote for self-rule would be catastrophe http://reut.rs/1j690zr

(Reuters) - Ukrainian acting President Oleksander Turchinov told eastern regions gripped by a pro-Russian uprising that they would be courting catastrophe if they voted "yes" in a separatist referendum on Sunday.

Turchinov, who deems the vote in the Russian-speaking Donetsk and Luhansk regions illegal, urged the population to accept "round table" talks on greater autonomy. But, in reference to fighters who have seized police and government buildings, he said "terrorists" could not be included.

The vote, organised on a largely ad hoc basis with no clear control of authenticity of ballot papers or voter lists, could have serious consequences for Ukraine and relations between Moscow and the West. It risks turning isolated clashes into civil war.

...
The national polls are seen in Kiev as a way of establishing a fully legitimate, universally elected government following pro-Kremlin president Viktor Yanukovich's flight to Russia in February under pressure from pro-Western demonstrations.

In the largely rebel-controlled regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, which have declared a breakaway "People's Republic of Donetsk", preparations went ahead for Sunday's self-rule referendum, though there was widespread uncertainty about what the question on the ballot paper meant:

"Do you support the act of self-rule of the People's Republic of Donetsk?"

Some people interpret it as a vote for more local powers, some for broad autonomy within Ukraine, some for independence, others still as a step towards incorporation into Russia.

[A_Gupta]

Moderator, please move this if inappropriate to this thread. But TSJones brought up Syria's Assad, and those who tolerate him (come to terms with him) as being on the opposite side of a civilizational divide with him. I therefore want to point out that the whole Sarin gas thing may have been cooked up.
http://www.ipsnews.net/2014/05/u-n-prob ... re-claims/

[Supratik]

According to wiki both the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts have Ukrainian majority. So the results of the referendum is not clear.

[Kakkaji]

Why has Putin backed off from confrontation recently? I think the West must have found a pain point and squeezed hard. What could it be? It is not in the public domain yet.

[vijaykarthik]

^^ threat of sanctions. But I don't think Putin is backing off. Lets remember, he is in for the long haul. For any kind of strong power projection, he needs a strong Russian economy. And if he presses hard now, his economy conks off. Which can perhaps lead to lots of frustration / anger build up and disapproval in Russia of putin and his policies.

Slowly and gently does it. Besides, its not as if he has the geostrategic advantage of a quickie in Ukraine. If he enters unilaterally, he has to fight a long protracted war at multiple dimensions. And increased militancy... without the physical advantages. [By my reckoning, he will need to hold land atleast till the Dneiper for him to achieve a strategic victory and have a semblance of physical geographic stability and for that to happen, it means the strakes are big and it will be a long drawn war. Not something they can afford to do. Costs will be humungous]

He is proving to be a smart strategist and the bhestern powers aren't liking that at all.

[Philip]

Putin already has the people of the east wanting to join Russia.he is organising a fait accompli by the locals seizing control on the ground.This is being resisted by the Kiev clique organising neo-Nazi thugs and some army elements to try and regain control,but thus far they've been unable to regain the east,only kill dozens of locals,enraging the population further.If the planned presidential poll by the Kiev clique fails in the east ,it will be catastrophic for the chickens.The east will be lost forever.

It is why Putin has suggested,"Moscow Rules",that the regions be given full autonomy,where they are technically part of the Ukraine but free to run their regions themselves,choose their economic partners-Russia,no NATO forces on their spoil,no EU membership,etc.That way the fruit will simply drop into his lap by itself.However,the Western puppet-masters of the crisis,O'Bomber,Ca-moron & co.,are gnashing their teeth at their defeat,where they were made to look fools over Putin's molniya (blitzkrieg) of the Crimea,which prevented their planned eventual use of Sevastopol as NATO's naval base after ejecting Russia from it once the Kiev mafia were in control over the whole country,which has now spectacularly backfired.

However,the "last chance saloon" attitude of the western gunslingers in the east is rapidly bringing the crisis into a full-fledged civil war situ.If Russia now intervenes militarily,Putin cannot be accused of not trying his best to resolve the crisis through talks and diplomacy.That may be precisely what the West has in mind,after realising that the east for all practical purposes is lost,and wants Russia to get engaged in a messy conflict like they did in Afghanistan,Iraq ,etc.However,the West forgets that this is and was part of the homeland of Russia! Putin will have total support from the Russian people if he intervenes militarily to ward off a threat from NATO to squat on Russia's borders.The Russians haven't forgotten Napoleon and Hitler's misadventures,the latter saw 26 million Russians dead in WW2.Russia was the principal victors of WW2 not the West.It was Russian troops who stormed into Berlin,crushing the Nazis .
O'Bomber and his Moron sidekick have yet again misunderstood the character and resilience of the Russian people,and like napoleon and Hitler before,these petit Pattons and Montys will come an inevitable cropper, history repeating itself as farce!

[Philip]

Just see how the east is being lost by the Kiev chickens! watch the video clip.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... [b]Ukraine crisis: ‘This is the people’s property now’ - riot police unable to stop pro-Russian activists from storming another symbol of Ukrainian state power [/b]

Riot police were powerless to stop the massed ranks of pro-Russian activists from storming another symbol of Ukrainian state power. Kim Sengupta witnesses a dramatic day in Donetsk

The boxes of documents were wrenched out of cupboards and metal cabinets. Some of the contents were taken outside to be burned, some emptied on the sodden floor. Then the men with guns arrived and made a beeline for the files, a treasure trove marked as intelligence and evidence.

By late afternoon the takeover of the prosecutor’s office in Donetsk was complete. ‘Heavies’ in balaclavas and combat kits began easing out the exuberant and mainly young mob who had stormed the building; the leaders began shouting orders for an inventory to be made of what was inside. “Not one more piece of paper or anything from a computer leaves this place. Same with the uniforms, we will be needing them” snapped a man we later learned was called Nicolai, as he looked around with distaste at the broken doors and smashed furniture. “What they don’t understand is that this is the peoples’ property now.”

The takeover of the building was a significant victory for the separatists who had already been holding the regional administration offices for weeks, as well as having effective control of a number of other state institutions. The Peoples’ Republic of Donetsk was quick to seize on the symbolism of this triumph taking place on May Day; a day where a vast crowd had roared out their rejection of Ukraine and loyalty to Russia and the Donbass.

It was difficult to know whether the plan had been to attack the prosecutor’s offices all along. Earlier, the demonstrators had left the city police headquarters in good humour following negotiations which led to the release of some who had been arrested earlier, and the raising of the flags of Donetsk at the entrance; to the chants of “the police are with the people”.

The crowd snaked through the streets of the city to the hymns of the Great Patriotic War. The favourite was “march Russki march”; the colours of Donetsk flew alongside those of the Russian Federation and the Hammer and Sickle of the USSR; among the banners was one Stalin as Rambo; the chants were “Donbass, Crimea, Russia,” “Putin stand by us,” “fascists shall not pass” and one which would have made Nigel Farage wistful: “Re-fe-rendum”.

At the prosecutor’s office, the next port of call, there was a sizeable security presence, the mood quickly turned sour; insults were hurled by the protestors followed by bricks, banners and a supply of Molotov Cocktails which had been rushed in. the response was rubber bullets, tear gas and stun grenades.

“They fired something from a gun straight into my face”, Viktor Bychkov pointed at his lips split wide open. “One of the policemen leant over another one with a shield and fired it at very close range. I was just trying to speak to them and this is what they do.”

Mr Bychkov had retreated to the edges of the crowd, he soon joined the surge as it burst through the door as the police line retreated. We found him in an office, pounding the telephone and then a fax machine with a metal rod. Others kicked down doors, tore down photographs, swept contents off desktops, pulled down bookcases. They were, they said, looking for policemen who were hiding and caches of weapons.

There were smudges of blood on the walls and the floor, but all the policemen had managed to get away: “We had provided a cordon to make them safe,” said Kyril, a 20 year old masked activist. In fact the defenders of the headquarters had to run through a gauntlet of protestors, some losing their shields and riot sticks.

May Day marching in Donetsk May Day marching in Donetsk (AP)

The protestors, and members of the public who had followed them in, went up and down the three storey building, taking away what they could, from portable flatscreen televisions to toilet rolls. In the basement kitchen two women, Svetlana and Katarina, gathered coffee, tea, sugar and milk to distribute, they said, to the activists. They were impressed by the management dining room with tables laid out for dinner. Some of the men discovered bottles of Georgian champagne.

A few others were removing items from the office of Vitaly Trafimchuk, the Director of the Department for the Protection of Constitutional Rights, when two men carrying pistols came in. They were clearing the floor . One of them, who gave his name as Nicolai, said: “These guys are angry, they came here to reason with the police, but they got tear-gassed. But we now need to organise this place. This is not the first time this place had been taken over by the self-defence units. Last time our members left after the representatives of the Kiev junta made promises. They didn’t keep the promises and this time we won’t give up so easily.”

Two men had brought up boxes of papers which they laid out on the floor. “There is nothing centralized here, there are documents in every floor” said one man. “But the main place is in the basement, a whole room”, said another. “Has anyone bothered to secure it?” wondered Nicolai.

I asked him if he expected to find his name in the files. “I would not be surprised, they keep files on anyone who disagrees with them. A lot of what they call intelligence is manufactured” he was keen to stress. “The junta in Kiev would not be happy that we have got these now. All the papers need to be analysed, maybe we will find about spies they have put in. But we can’t do that if the papers are burnt or just thrown away.”

Why was he repeatedly asking for the uniforms to be kept safe? “We don’t want to wear them, if that’s what you mean. We also don’t want them getting out of here because the Right Sector [an extreme nationalist group] could get hold of them and use them to murder more of our people. But, mostly, we want the police to come back and do their job, not for those clowns in Kiev, but the Donetsk Republic. When the referendum is held, most people will vote for the Donetsk Republic.”

Earlier in the day a friend of mine, a pro-Ukrainian, had introduced me to a couple at the May Day rally who were fervent advocate of the referendum on secession. “But these are educated reasonable people, not like some of the thugs you can see” she had pointed out, “they are not the type you see in masks around here.” As we went downstairs in the prosecutor’s building, a man in a balaclava greeted us in passing - the male half of the couple. Donetsk, reflected my friend, was certainly changing.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... -civil-war
Ukraine: deaths in the east fuel tension as separatists push ahead with poll
Donetsk on the brink of civil war as army, police and pro-Russia forces exchange fire in port city of Mariupol

Shaun Walker
The Observer, Saturday 10 May 2014
People stand on top of burned-out armoured personnel carrier near the city hall in Mariupol on the eve of the regional independence referendum. Photograph: Marko Djurica/REUTERS

A hastily organised referendum on creating the quasi-independent statelet of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine will go ahead on Sunday, as violence and chaos rage in the region in what increasingly resembles the beginning of a civil war.

At least seven people died in the southern port city of Mariupol on Friday when the Ukrainian army entered the city in armoured vehicles, apparently to regain control of the city's police HQ, where separatist fighters were exchanging fire with barricaded police. The assault ended with the police building burning to the ground, deaths on both sides and a hasty retreat through the city, when unarmed civilians were shot at by Ukrainian forces.

Ukraine's interior minister, Arsen Avakov, said that 20 "terrorists have been destroyed" in the operation, but investigation at local hospitals suggested a lower death toll, perhaps even in single figures. At least one policeman died. The head of the traffic police in the city, Viktor Sayenko, also died from bullet wounds, according to an official statement, which gave no details except that he died "carrying out his official duties". The exact circumstances of the violence were extremely hard to determine, as the town was convulsed with anger and fury and rumours circulated like wildfire.

On Friday, there was mob rule in the city centre as shops and businesses were looted. A hunting shop was targeted for its weapons, while mobile phone shops were simply too strong a temptation to ignore, with the police gone from the city. An armoured personnel carrier abandoned by the Ukrainian army due to engine trouble was set on fire. A man scrambled atop the carrier as firemen worked to put out the blaze and screamed: "This is the Donetsk people's republic! We will destroy the Kiev junta and the Euro-gays! We will win!"

At a local police station on Saturday , the doors were locked and a group of people were ringing the bell with little success. One man had come to report that his car had been smashed up, while another said his grocery shop had been looted during the night.

There was no visible police presence on the streets on Saturday, but their loyalties appear key to understanding the violence that broke out.

The Observer talked to four police officers who said that the army had initially entered the city at the request of police who had been trapped on the third floor of the building after armed separatists broke in and demanded that they side "with the people".

Three of the police sources said that the attack from separatists on the police station came unprovoked, while one claimed that the police had orders to clear the town hall, which had been occupied for the past week, of separatists. Through a mole in the police, the separatists had decided to take a pre-emptive strike and seize the police station.

Whatever the cause, the police barricaded themselves on the top floor and called for help as a firefight broke out. At some point a high-ranking officer was thrown from the third-floor window, but who threw him out and whether he survived remains unclear. "Of course, there are splits in the police too," said one senior officer. "Everyone here is scared, and it will be hard to keep everyone working."

Some officers have left the force in recent weeks, uneasy about orders to take action against the separatist militias. In many towns in the region the police have attempted to preserve an uneasy neutrality; in some places they have fully deserted to the side of the separatists.

In one of Mariupol's hospitals, there were three members of pro-Ukrainian forces who had been injured in the fighting. Two were in intensive care while one was recovering from a bullet wound to the thigh. Hesaid he had been shot during the clashes at police headquarters. He said he was from the interior ministry troops and had arrived in the town after a request for help had been made by the police.

In Mariupol, the presence of Ukrainian armoured vehicles in the city centre on victory day on Friday was seen as an extra provocation. Moscow and local separatists have called the Kiev government "fascist" and drawn parallels between the second world war victory and the current conflict.

In the process the word "fascist" has lost most of its meaning, but the comparison has proved a powerful rallying cry. The police station in Mariupol was the building used by the Nazis as the forced labour exchange when the city was occupied during the war, and its exterior bears a plaque as a memorial to the victims of fascism. The widespread belief among many local people is that the police have gone fully over to the side of the separatists, and the army had come in to carry out a punitive operation against the police. "I saw them drive past, I saw their faces," said 29-year-old Roman. "They are not humans, they are animals, fascist animals. I am ready to wring their necks with my own hands."

Tatyana Logacheva, 52, said she had given her shawl to a youth making Molotov cocktails, as he was short of fabric to use as the fuse. "Ukraine is not a real country, Ukraine is a microscopic dot on the map," she said. "This here is Russian land, and they have tried to steal our land from us and our language, but we will not give it up easily."

In a sign of how high tensions are running, shortly after giving the interview she was accosted by another woman, who told her that she should not speak to western journalists as they would twist her words. The woman began assaulting her with a handbag, and three other women joined in the attack with punches and kicks, before they were broken up by a group of men.

There are many in Mariupol and across eastern Ukraine who are horrified by the armed uprising; some of them are ethnic Ukrainians, others are simply middle-class professionals or intellectuals and fear that events here could slip into anarchic violence. Although they try to keep quiet in the current atmosphere, supporters of Ukrainian unity are numerous.

Nevertheless, Kiev's labelling of those seizing buildings here as "terrorists" has not helped to calm tensions, and the Ukrainian government appears to be in denial that increasingly large swaths of the population are backing the resistance movement, spurred on by the Russian media and the rumour mill, and increasingly by the bloody death toll from Kiev's "anti-terror" manoeuvres.

These are the circumstances in which the town, and the rest of the region, will hold the referendum that will ask whether people want to set up a Donetsk people's republic. The question uses a Russian word, samostoyatelnost, that could mean independence or could mean slightly less. It is possible that the de facto authorities are wheeling back from demanding full independence after Russian president Vladimir Putin's words last week that the referendum should be postponed, or after messages conveyed privately that Russia is not ready to offer open military support or absorb the territory "Crimea-style".

"We are not separatists, this is not about secession, this is about more autonomy," said Roman Lyagin, head of the electoral commission of the self-proclaimed republic. "Afterwards we can then decide how we want to live – with Ukraine, independently, or with Russia."

He added that personally he favoured the latter option. Most residents of the region seem to think they are indeed voting on independence, however, and this view is reinforced by billboards that tell people to "make the right choice" between fascist Ukraine or a prosperous Donetsk republic.

"I've deliberately done something that could get me 15 years in prison, because it's the only option to avoid war," said Lyagin, formerly a political consultant, on why he believes the referendum has to go ahead. He said that the entire budget for the referendum had been 20,000 hryvnia (£1000), which included photocopier ink, petrol to deliver ballot papers, and pens.

The referendum ballots are printed on ordinary white paper, there are no observers, and in some areas urns will be carried door-to-door for voting. Lyagin admits that the organisation is "not perfect", but says in the circumstances it was the best they could do.

In Kiev, interim president Oleksandr Turchynov said that the referendum was illegal, and that voting "yes" would be "a step into the abyss" for the east of the country.

Arsenic and Torch-Enough have massacred and torched enough of ordinary Ukranians to have lost the east forever.In fact pretty soon they will be in acute danger of losing their seats in Kiev ,illegally acquired once their western sponsors have lost their use for them.They are the pathetic pawns,pretending to be princes and kings!

[Philip]

What would happen if the Ukraine and Russia faced off? Here is an RUSI paper on the same.pl. look at the maps in the link.

https://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/U ... IEFING.pdf
Ukraine Military Dispositions
The Military Ticks Up while the Clock Ticks Down
Igor Sutyagin and Michael Clarke

On 2 April, NATO’s Supreme Commander in Europe General Philip M Breedlove made it clear that the Alliance is about to announce a series of military measures to demonstrate that it is still a working military command structure capable of defending all its external borders. These measures are designed both to reassure NATO’s eastern members and to send a loud
message to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that military adventures in the former Soviet space would create an even more dangerous crisis for Europe than the seizure of Crimea. No one, including Putin, knows what he may do
next as the situation changes. The crisis in Ukraine raised the Crimea issue for him both as a difficult problem as well as an opportunity, and he apparently chose to seize the opportunity without much anticipation of the cost.
For that reason alone, NATO officials have something to worry about. Alongside the political initiatives to create a negotiated outcome and the sanctions to apply pressure on the Russian leadership, there is a military dynamic that is becoming more worrying and urgent. Russian troop deployments – amounting to nearly 50,000 personnel – are noted in Figure 1, with their reserve elements behind them. Ukrainian troop dispositions as of a month ago are illustrated in Figure 2, though this analysis is now
becoming outdated since it is known that some Ukrainian forces have begun to take up positions in eastern Ukraine (see Box 1), drawing away from such a heavy concentration in the west. They appear to be doing this covertly,
however, and it is not currently possible to locate all of their new positions. Several trends are evident in these two diagrams. In
Figure 1, the composite military formations ‘Klimovo’, ‘L’gov’, ‘Belgorod’ and possibly ‘Polessya’ are
the most significant. These forces stand opposite Kiev and the regions to its east. Their disposition holds the capital and the Kiev government at risk in any attack and compels Ukraine to keep a significant proportion of its forces in that area and therefore not available to operate further east. The military
Ukraine Military Dispositions 2 www.rusi.org
groups ‘Taganrog’ and ‘Crimea’ are the other key forces that would have the potential to open a secure land corridor into Crimea from Russia north of the Sea of Azov. Such a corridor would have far greater capacity in terms of transport and logistics than the tenuous link across the Kerch Strait at the south of the sea.
The Ukrainian army numbers around 70,000, but it is poorly equipped and would struggle to mobilise fully. In the event of a military clash, its formationswould be locally outnumbered and certainly outgunned by Russian forces
and their reserves. As Figure 2 indicates, they cannot quickly deploy in great
Box 1:
Possible Ukrainian Troop Movements
It is apparent that the Ukrainian military is responding to the Russian build up.To defend against the Russian military sub-groups ‘Klimovo’ and, possibly, ‘L’gov’, thereare some signs that Ukrainians have relocated the following formations:
•30thMechanised Brigade (item #5 in Figure 2)
•95thAir Mobile Brigade (#12)
•72ndMechanised Brigade (#16)
•3rdSpecial Operations (Spetsnaz) Regiment (#23)
In addition, Ukraine has mobilised and increased the alert status of the 169thTrainingCentre (roughly equivalent to a reduced-strength motorised division, north-east of #3).To defend against the sub-groups ‘Rostov-Don’ and ‘Taganrog’, there are also signs thatUkraine has moved the following formations to Donetsk Oblast:
•25thAirborne Brigade (#26)
•And, possibly, components of the 17thTank Brigade (#27).To defend against sub-group ‘Crimea’, Ukraine has moved these formations to KhersonOblast:
•Components of the 17thTank Brigade (#27)
•79thAir Mobile Brigade (#29)
•Components of the 28thMechanised Brigade (#30).To prevent the advance of Russian troops from Transnistria, these forces may havebeen relocated:
•Components of 28thMechanised Brigade (#30)
•Components of 80thAir Mobile Regiment (#8).Finally, to defend against sub-group ‘Boguchar’, this formation may have been moved
to Luhansk Oblast:
•93rdMechanised Brigade (#24).Ukraine Military Dispositions4
www.rusi.org
Figure 2
: Ukraine’s Ground Forces, March 2014.
Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. Ukraine would pay another territorial priceof a further Russian illegal annexation.
The third scenario is that unrest and separatist pressures in south and easternUkraine, real or manufactured, may present a dangerous, but neverthelesstempting opportunity to split the country in two, south and east of the
Dnieper River. Presidential elections in Ukraine on 25 May, particularly if they
Ukraine Military Dispositions5www.rusi.org
are accompanied by some sort of shadow election for a ‘President of South-East Ukraine’, could spark the civil tension that might offer such a dangeroustemptation. Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina, while it lasted asa secessionist entity, provides a historical parallel and there is evidence thatMoscow is even encouraging the Serbs who once proclaimed their secession
from Bosnia to voice their support for similar Russian separatist demands in Ukraine.

The fourth scenario would involve Russian troops executing a move ofgrand strategy, creating a western corridor from Transnistria in Moldova
into Crimea through Odessa and Mykolaiv Oblasts, which would encompassthe historic city of Odessa itself. This would be a more tenuous link than an eastern corridor, but it would bring a Russian ethnic community from Transnistria into a continuous corridor to the Russian homeland. Whether itwould be sustainable in regions that are less than a third Russian-speaking
is debateable, but it would constitute a bargaining chip of some importance if there were any initial acquiescence to it. It would likely only make sense ina total campaign to divide the country into a south and south-east, annexed and/or controlled by Russia on the one hand and a western rump governed from a vulnerable capital in Kiev on the other. Such an arc of ‘new Russian’
territory transforming the map of Black Sea Europe would be a fundamental challenge to the European order. It would represent a land grab from another independent European state – Moldova – and invite inter-communal violence that would affect the stability of even Romania, a NATO member.This scenario would represent a completely new departure in European
security politics, more serious than almost anything seen during the Cold War, let alone since that time.

Geopolitical Realities
There are some stark geopolitical realities that make several of thesescenarios more plausible – incentivising aggressive action by Putin – even ifthey are not so far the most likely.
Energy
The first is that Russia’s Gazprom has taken control of all Ukraine’s off-shore oil and gas fields in the Sea of Azov. Previously, European companies had been promised licenses to operate in these areas, so Gazprom could face
some legal challenges. Nevertheless, an eastern corridor into Crimea from the Russian homeland would cut Ukraine off from the Sea of Azov and make it part of Russian territory. The long-running dispute over the Kerch Strait would also be removed by such an annexation of territory.
Food
Crimea is dependent on Ukraine for 85 per cent of its food supplies. Crimea continues to be supplied from the rest of Ukraine, but road transportation

Ukraine Military Dispositions
6
www.rusi.org
currently takes around two days from mainland Ukraine to the Crimean
capital of Simferopol with many border checks (established by the Crimean
authorities) involved. The ferry across the Kerch Strait can only handle 400
people or 60 vehicles per hour, while the Port of Kerch has very poor facilities
and no refrigeration for food and perishables. In this situation, food supplies
in Crimea are already under strain and cannot be easily met by air and sea
supply from Russia. The opening of a secure land corridor would mitigate the
problem immediately.
Military Imports
Of Russia’s total imports, only 4.4 per cent come from Ukraine, but they are
vital for some key elements of Russia’s military establishment. Some 30 per
cent of Ukrainian military exports to Russia are unique and cannot currently
be substituted by Russian production. Russia’s heavy intercontinental
ballistic missiles (the SS-18 ICBMs) are designed and produced by the
Yuzhmash combine in Dnepropetrovsk. SS-18s are regularly checked and
maintained by Yuzhmash specialists. Two other strategic missile systems –
the SS-25 (RT-2PM Topol) and the SS-19 (UR-100 NUTTKh) – are designed and
produced by Russian-based enterprises, but use guidance systems designed
and produced in Ukraine by the Kharkiv-based Khartron Scientific-Industrial
Combine. The SS-18, SS-19 and SS-25 currently make up some 51 per cent of
Russia’s overall strategic nuclear-weapons inventory and over 80 per cent of
that of Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces specifically. In addition, some 20 per
cent of the natural uranium currently consumed by Russia’s nuclear industry,
both for civilian and military purposes, comes from Zholti Vody in Ukraine.
Since Soviet days, Russia’s ship-building programme has heavily depended on
gas-turbine engines and gears produced in Mykolaiv, Ukraine. While Russian
industry has learned how to build large gas-turbine engines since then, it
cannot yet master manufacturing the gears for them and Russia requires
Ukrainian-produced gears for 60 per cent of the surface combatants planned
for its navy.
The Russian air force is also critically dependent on the Ukrainian defence
industry. Ukrainian enterprises produce the R-27 (the AA-10 Alamo) medium-
range air-to-air missile (AAM), as well as the seekers for the R-73 (AA-11
Archer) short-range AAM – which, between them, represent the majority of
anti-air missiles operated by Russian fighters. Many of the auxiliary systems
– from hydraulics to drogue parachutes – for the Russian Su-27, Su-30 and
Su-35 fighters, as well as for Russia’s newest Su-34, are also produced in
Ukraine. In Zaporizhia, the Motor-Sich plant has a major role in Russian
aviation
.
Motor-Sich produces jet engines for a variety of Russian transport
jet aircraft, including the An-124 Ruslan, the largest Russian transport
aircraft, as well as for some combat and training aircraft. The plant also
produces engines for all Russian combat and transport helicopters, as well
Ukraine Military Dispositions
7
www.rusi.org
as auxiliary power units for all Russian helicopters and many types of combat
and transport aircraft.
Russia has made a vast effort to reduce its dependence upon Motor-Sich
engines, but the evidence is that it cannot produce enough engines to meet
its own demand – to say nothing of an ambitious rearmament programme,
which looks as if it will require at least 3,000 helicopter engines in a two-to-
three year period to equip Russian forces.
Russia’s dependence on Motor-Sich also has the effect of restricting its own
military and aviation exports. For the period 2013–16, Russia has secured
contracts for the delivery of over 260 new helicopters around the world, all
of which are equipped with either main or auxiliary engines supplied by the
Ukrainian company. On 28 March, the state-owned company that controls all
Ukrainian armaments and military-related production – Ukroboronprom –
announced a freeze on all future supplies to Russia. The effects of this freeze
on Russian military production as well as its export potential will certainly be
felt in the medium term, if not immediately.
This military dependence on Ukrainian production could be read in one
of two ways. We might assume that it increases Putin’s incentive to find
a peaceful resolution in his relationship with Ukraine, so that supplies are
not interrupted and Russia has more time to decrease its critical military
dependencies on Ukrainian production. In light of the Crimea takeover, that
dependence will not likely be relieved quickly by the Ukrainians.
Equally, however, it could be argued that since most of the military plants in
question are in south and east Ukraine, the temptation to follow the third
and fourth scenarios will be all the greater. To suggest these scenarios for
the sake of capturing the production at these various plants would be a very
nineteenth-century way of looking at a twenty-first century relationship.
However, even that cannot be ruled out in current circumstances.
The Next Month
The month of May will be a critical time. Until Ukraine’s elections take place
in May, the government in Kiev lacks legitimacy, and that fact continues to
support Russia’s patterns of behaviour in arguing that it is protecting Russian
speakers in Crimea from violence. If the elections go well in May, then Putin’s
claims to be acting for humanitarian motives will be severely diminished.
On the other hand, if the elections do not go well and are accompanied
by competing shadow elections in other parts of the country, the resulting
confusion and even violence may present further, albeit dangerous,
opportunities to strengthen Russia’s position around the Black Sea. In
addition, Russian troops, at readiness now for over two to three weeks, will
be approaching eight weeks at readiness by early to mid May; at this point,

[Philip]

Even the BBC was forced to acknowledge from their scribe on the ground that there was a huge turnout for thereferendum which will inevitably spell doom for the Ukraine as we know it.The EWest might howl about "legitimacy,criminal,blah,blah",but its hypocrisy is staggering having recognised a fascist coup earlier in Kiev.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 52604.html

Ukraine crisis: Tens of thousands vote in regional referendum dubbed 'a criminal farce organised by Russia'

It was a flawed process, often chaotic, without any impartial supervision and condemned internationally as illegal. But tens of thousands turned up today to vote in the middle of a bloody conflict for a referendum, which may spell the end of what is left of united Ukraine.

The result is going to be a victory for separatists by a large percentage, with those opposed to them overwhelmingly staying away from the polls; as had been the case in Crimea.

There were further echoes of what took place there with the leader of the Peoples’ Republic of Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, declaring that once the results were announced, “All Ukrainian military troops on our territory will be considered illegal and declared occupiers”.

The separatists' "election commission" stated that official results would be announced on Monday afternoon. On Sunday night they claimed 89 per cent had voted in favour of self-rule, but verifying the figure may prove difficult in the absence of any independent observers monitoring the vote. A second vote may take place, on a date to be decided, on whether the people of Donbass want to join the Russian Federation.

Vladimir Putin had maintained that there would not be a reprise of the Crimean annexation in eastern Ukraine. But the caretaker government in Kiev described the polls as a “criminal farce organised by Russia”. Washington stressed that “the United States will not recognise the results of these illegal referenda”. This was echoed by Britain, France and Germany; all had blamed Moscow for encouraging the separatists in this region.

But this was less about a craving for immediate rule by the Kremlin, and more about the loathing felt towards the politicians in Kiev by vast swathes of the population in these parts. This is particularly the case where the state forces have been carrying out operations, increasingly with the use of armour in urban areas.

Militarily the success had been limited at best, while creating a deep sense of alienation among the public in places like Mariupol. On Sunday night there were reports that Ukrainian national guardsmen had opened fire on crowd outside the eastern town hall in Krasnoarmeisk, resulting in at least one fatality.

Among the residents who had queued up for hours to cast their votes here were many who had decided to vote for independence only after days of raids by Kiev’s forces, including a private army with links to an oligarch, culminating in an assault on a police station, setting it on fire. Between seven and 20 people died in the fighting there and elsewhere in the city.

“Just a few days ago I was thinking that Ukraine must stay together, but then they sent soldiers into this city to shoot at our people”, said 47 year old Svetlana Kuznetsova Vladimirovich. “Those in power now in Kiev do not listen to us, they call us terrorists instead; it is they who have destroyed Ukraine, not us.”

This city on the Azov Sea had not been as stridently separatist as some others: it is a port, and steel works have provided employment and a degree of prosperity even during the current lean economic times. Pro-Moscow protesters had found it difficult to hold on to public buildings they had occupied, unlike in other cities and towns.

A Ukranian woman casts her vote in a booth at a polling station in the center of Donetsk, Ukraine A Ukranian woman casts her vote in a booth at a polling station in the center of Donetsk, Ukraine

Government ministers in Kiev have repeatedly boasted about the supposed success of the ‘anti-terrorist operation’ in the east, focusing recently on Mariupol, which was deemed to be easier to capture than Slovyansk, a well-fortified rebel city where earlier efforts had been concentrated. After the attack on the police station, Arsen Avakov, the acting minister of interior, spoke on his Facebook page of “terrorists destroyed” and offered “annihilation” to those who continued to bear arms against the Ukrainian state.

Less than a week after the start of the military mission to Mariupol aimed at retaking state apparatus, the city hall has been gutted by fire, with its contents used to build barricades. The main military base, scenes of fierce clashes, lies empty, the security forces having evacuated. The last round of looting was taking place today, with what’s left, clothing, furniture, office supplies and parts of generators being removed.

The prize was an armoured personnel carrier which was towed out of the camp, initially, by a Toyota Land Cruiser with one of the front doors missing and bullet holes in the windscreen. The car had belonged to Valeryi Androschuk, the police chief of Mauripol, who had gone missing during the attack on the police station on Friday.

One of the reasons for the shooting breaking out, according to a police officer I spoke to in the morning, was that Commander Androschuk had ordered his officers to retake City Hall, then in the hands of the protesters, following instructions from Kiev. They had refused, a confrontation had ensued, and he had, at one point, opened fire with his pistol at a subordinate. Troops had subsequently arrived in support of the Commander and a group of like-minded senior officers, but he had been captured by separatists. What happened to him? I asked. “We think he had been killed”, said the police officer.

Four hours later came reports that Mr Androschuk’s body had been found, hanged, near Mauripol airport, an execution carried out following judgment by a ‘peoples’ court’: this could not, however, be confirmed, and the Commander officially continues to be missing.

Most of Mariupol’s civic administration had fled and polling was a hurriedly organised affair with four centres for a population of more than half million. The crowd circled the blocks to vote, patient and good-natured despite wait lasting hours.

Olga Petrasian, 18, a volunteer at a voting station, was helping Maria Demitriva to cast her vote. The 80-year-old grandmother had travelled 26 miles from her home to be there: “I know everyone says that we babushkas all want to join Russia, and we have forgotten all the bad things about communism. But all I want to do is make sure my grandchildren have a good future, we are not going to have that with the government which send tanks to our streets”. Ms Petrasian added: “I also feel there is no future with Kiev, my parents feel the same way, so you see three generations agree on this, we don’t want to stay in a Ukraine run by a junta.

Eliana, a 22-year-old student, is among those who do want to stay in a united Ukraine, but did not vote. Speaking at her home, not far from the burned our shell of the police station, she acknowledged: “The separatists will say we had the chance to take part in the referendum and didn’t do so. But what took place was illegal, why should we give it legitimacy? But also, I am afraid, we are all afraid. You saw what happened here, I cannot see any hope for the future.”

British hypocrisy:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/com ... 50822.html

Robert Fisk
Sunday 11 May 2014
The spread of British hypocrisy, from Gerry Adams and Northern Ireland to Syria

If arresting Adams just before the European elections was not political, then surely the British refusal to inquire into the slaughter in Ballymurphy was.

The law is the law is the law. So I was taught as a child. But it’s all baloney. Take the case of Gerry Adams, “arrested” and then released after chatting to the Northern Ireland police – I notice the cops did not use the old cliché about “helping the police with their inquiries” – about the torture and murder and “disappearance” of Jean McConville. It is, to quote Fintan O’Toole, that wise old bird of Irish philosophy, “an atrocity that cries out for accountability” – in which Adams has consistently denied any involvement. Sinn Fein announced that Adams’s “arrest” was political, a remark that got the usual tsk-tsk from Unionists and British alike.

But alas, Theresa Villiers, the latest in the hordes of Northern Ireland secretaries to be visited upon Belfast, also announced, a wee bit before Adams’s “arrest”, that there would be no independent inquiry into the killing of 11 unarmed civilians in Ballymurphy in August 1971 by soldiers of the Parachute Regiment, the most undisciplined British military unit to be sent to the province, which later killed another 14 civilians in Derry on Bloody Sunday. In the Ballymurphy shooting, the Brits managed to kill a Catholic priest carrying an improvised white flag and a mother of eight children who went to help a wounded boy. The deaths of Father Hugh Mullan and Mrs Joan Connolly were also deaths that “cry out for accountability”. But of course, there will be none. Ms Villiers has seen to that.

She also ensured that there would be no inquiry into the fire-bombing of the La Mon hotel in 1978, when the IRA burned 12 people to death. Families of the dead have their suspicions that transcripts of police interviews with IRA suspects to this crime were removed from the archives to protect important people involved in the “peace process” in Northern Ireland. No complaints about that, needless to say, from the IRA. But you can see the problem: if arresting Adams just before the European elections was not political, then surely the British refusal to inquire into the slaughter in Ballymurphy – assuming the soldiers involved have not died of old age – was political. After all, the Brits know who these soldiers were, their names, their ages and ranks. They have much more than the statements of two dead IRA supporters – the “evidence” against Adams – to go on.

Now you may argue that the Saville inquiry into Bloody Sunday cost far too many millions of pounds to warrant another investigation into the Ballymurphy deaths. But then you may also ask why the soldiers who gave evidence to the original inquiry were given the cover of anonymity. This was something Gerry Adams was not offered – nor, given the favourable political fallout, was he likely to have asked for it. But then it would also be pleasant if the Brits who know something about the Dublin and Monaghan bombings during the worst days of the Irish war could pop over to Dublin and give a little evidence about this particular atrocity. No chance of that, of course.

And you don’t have to stick in Ireland for further proof of legal hypocrisy. Take our beloved Home Secretary’s decision to deprive British immigrants of their British passports if they go to fight Assad’s regime in Syria. Quite apart from the fact that William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, and his friends originally supported the armed Syrian opposition, there are problems with the passport story. Many British supporters of Israel, for example, have fought on Israel’s behalf in Israeli uniform in that country’s wars. But what if they served in Israeli units known to have committed war crimes in Lebanon or Gaza? Or in the Israeli air force, which promiscuously kills civilians in war. Are they, too, to be deprived of their passports if they were not born in the UK? Of course not. One law for Muslims, another for non-Muslims – not unlike Spain’s offer of passports to the descendants of those driven from their homes in the 15th century, a generous act somewhat damaged by the fact that only Jews (not Muslims) may take advantage of it.

We will not dwell upon all the other hypocrisies of the Middle East – the outrage at any Iranian interest in acquiring nuclear weapons, for example, when another country in the region has an awful lot of nuclear weapons; or US fury at Russian annexation of Crimea but no anger at all about the annexation of Golan or the theft of Arab land in the West Bank, which are equally illegal under international law. Upon such foundations is aggression built: the illegal invasion of Iraq, for instance.

I contemplate all this because of a little research I’m undertaking about a Moroccan air force colonel who, in 1972, tried to stage a coup against the brutal King Hassan who was also, by the way, quite an expert on “disappearances”. Mohamed Amekrane flew to Gibraltar and threw himself upon the dodgy mercy of Her Majesty. He pleaded for asylum (after all, the coup had failed) but we packed him off back to Morocco because, while the European Convention on Human Rights gives anyone the right to leave his or her own country, no international treaty obliges a country to give that person asylum. So back Amekrane went – and was, of course, put to death. His widow eventually got £37,500 from the British government – ex gratia, needless to say, out of goodwill not guilt, you understand – and Colonel Amekrane was then erased from history. Interesting to see what happens to the ex-Brits who lose their passports for going to Syria – and have to go back to the country of their birth. They might be better off – and live longer lives – if they to go off to fight in another jihad.
The Great War’s forgotten victims in the Levant

Horrors of the Great War you will not read about this year: among the casualties were another million dead, the men, women and children of the Ottoman Levant – for which read modern-day Lebanon and Syria – who died of famine, victims of both the Allied blockade of the east Mediterranean coastline (which is why we ignore these particular souls) and of the Turkish army’s seizure of all food and farm animals from the civilian population; all this in addition to the million and a half slaughtered Armenians of 1915. Many Lebanese remember parents who ate nettles to stay alive, just as the Irish did in the famine. I have a book by Father Antoine Yammine, published in Cairo in 1922, illustrated with photos of stick-like children and of a priest in his habit lying dead on a Beirut street, another of a baby suckling at his dead mother’s breast outside their front door. “And some there be which have no memorial; who are perished as though they had never been…”

[pankajs]

Hindustan Times ‏@htTweets 1h

Pro-Moscow rebels declare resounding victory in referendum on self-rule for eastern #Ukraine http://read.ht/e85 pic.twitter.com/qCD62o1g3H

[Philip]

Pankaj,was it ever in doubt? The golden Q is now what will Russia do? Accept a unification with it or recognise the eastern regions as an independent entity? Putin now has his moral reason for whatever action he decides to employ.As for the Kiev chickens,it's "goodbye,goodbye,goodbye..." to the east.

If you take look at the RUSI map in the link,one can see that an excellent division of the Ukraine into two halves automatically stands out with the Dnieper river cutting through from north to south.In time both Odessa and the Trinestra enclave will join Russia,accessed through the Crimea and Black Sea.Ukraine will bewithout any port and thus a landlocked state totally dependent upon Euro-Peon crumbs and Russian gas..if it can pay for it!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... sk-luhansk
Ukraine: pro-Russia separatists set for victory in eastern region referendum
Kiev defends military's 'anti-terrorist operations' as rebels say 90% of vote is in favour of 'people's republics' in Donetsk and Luhansk

Shaun Walker in Donetsk, Oksana Grytsenko in Luhansk, and Howard Amos in Kiev
The Guardian, Sunday 11 May 2014 18.16 BST

Link to video: Ukraine: voters take to the referendum polls in Donetsk

There were no international observers, no up-to-date electoral lists, and the ballot papers were photocopies. With heavily armed men keeping watch, ambiguous wording on the ballot slip and a bungled Ukrainian attempt to stop voting in one town that ended with one dead, it was clear that this was no ordinary referendum.

But as pro-Russia separatists announced a landslide victory for the proposition that called for the creation of two new, quasi-independent entities in eastern Ukraine, it was equally clear that Sunday's voting marked a new watershed in the country's crisis.

One of the separatist leaders promptly served warning that all Ukrainian troops on his territory would become illegal.

"All military troops on our territory after the official announcement of referendum results will be considered illegal and declared occupiers," Denis Pushilin said. "It is necessary to form state bodies and military authorities as soon as possible."

The head of the de facto electoral commission said on Sunday night that nearly 90% of voters in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk voted for self-rule. "89%, that's it," Roman Lyagin said.

Referendum in the Donetsk region of Ukraine An armed pro-Russian separatist stands guard as a man casts his vote during the referendum in the Donetsk region. Photograph: Roman Pilipey/EPA

The referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, advised local leaders to postpone, came as widespread anger mounted over Ukrainian military moves against armed separatists.

There was a further bloody incident on Sunday as a detachment of Ukraine's National Guard arrived in the town of Krasnoarmeisk. According to witnesses, they were angrily accosted by unarmed locals and subsequently opened fire, killing one and wounding two.

The authorities in Kiev have said these are "anti-terrorist operations", but they have resulted in a number of deaths, most recently in the city of Mariupol on Friday when at least seven people died as Ukrainian forces entered the city.

Only four polling stations opened on Sunday in Mariupol, which is home to 500,000 people. One was in the burned-out city administration building, seized by separatists and scene of fierce clashes in recent days. There were huge queues of people, almost all of whom said they were voting yes to separatism.

In Donetsk, there were also queues to vote, even though many people were unsure exactly of the meaning of the ballot question, which asked: "Do you support the act of state self-rule of the Donetsk People's Republic?"

There have been mixed messages from de facto leaders: sometimes they say it is merely a vote for more autonomy within Ukraine; at other times they say the yes vote is for a new state that would include much of Russian-speaking east Ukraine, while there are also suggestions that the region could join Russia, as Crimea did in March after a controversial referendum.

It is not clear whether Russia has the appetite to annex more of Ukraine, but many of those at polling stations believed that is what they were voting for.

At a polling station in a Donetsk school, Alexander Baturenko, 27, who was one of the volunteers helping to organise the vote, said he hoped the region would become part of Russia. The economics graduate, who now works in as an accountant in a big company, said: "It's much quieter and more peaceful there. Here it's one president after another; there it never changes."

Ludmila Babushkina, 78, said she had cast her voted to protect the region from "fascists" in Kiev. She said that previously there had been a chance to make some kind of compromise with Kiev, but that none of the leading candidates in the election represented the Russian-speaking east of the country and that now she had decided she wanted to join Russia.

She said the referendum was causing divisions. "My neighbour argued with me this morning and told me that I should not vote, that we don't need any of this. To be honest, I was pretty surprised that she had fascist views. She seemed nice."

A Russian journalist said he had been allowed to vote despite not showing any passport, while others reported they were able to vote several times.

Lyagin said the referendum was not perfect but was the best thing possible in the current Ukrainian climate. "We don't have a legitimate government in Kiev. There is a de facto president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, and just because he is not at his desk does not mean that other people can take over," Lyagin said. "We have people who are themselves illegal telling us that we are illegal."

In Luhansk, one polling station was set up inside a separatist stronghold – the state security building that they have occupied since early April.

Children posed for photographs by a tank removed from a Soviet monument on the eve of Victory Day by protesters. A man in camouflage handed a small boy a Kalashnikov rifle to pose with.

Some said that voting yes would improve their material position. Andriy Penishenko, 41, said he feared that staying within Ukraine would mean he would lose his job at a locomotive plant.

"If Kiev drags us into the EU or Nato, then they will come and close our plant. Our plant sells its products to Russia and feeds half of the city," he said.

The referendum comes as the region appears to be tottering on the edge of a genuine civil war.

Language and rhetoric has toughened as the death toll has mounted in recent weeks. Comparisons with the Nazis have been flying on both sides. and the armed uprising against Kiev has been portrayed in Moscow and locally as an "anti-fascist" movement. The government in Kiev said Moscow was behaving in a manner reminiscent of Nazi Germany.

The head of Ukraine's security council, Andriy Parubiy, said the referendum was "Putin propaganda" and "similar referendums were held by Hitler in Austria". Parubiy, who led the volunteer security forces during the Maidan protests in Kiev, and now commands the National Guard, a force drawn from the Maidan protesters and used against the separatists in east Ukraine.

He added: "Europe needs to understand that because Hitler was not stopped at the beginning, it led to a huge war and millions and millions of victims. If Russia recognises [the results of the referendum] Ukraine will defend its territory."

So far Kiev's "anti-terrorism operation" has only led to increased anger and alienation among many people in east Ukraine. However, while many people are wary of the new authorities in Kiev, it is unclear how many people really support the separatist movement. Many pro-Ukraine activists have left the region after threats, some have been kidnapped, and most of those who disagree chose to boycott the referendum rather than vote no.

But Andrei, a philosophy student who did not want to give his surname, said: "I haven't voted and nor have any of my friends. It's a referendum for idiots, organised by idiots. Of course I don't want to be part of their absurd republic or join Russia. But having said that, I don't like the new Kiev government either. Basically, we're screwed."

[vijaykarthik]

^^ what will this mean for the national elections? Will Donetsk, luhansk also take part in the may 26th referendum national elections.

Don't think Putin is in a hurry to recognize these bits yet. However, its on his agenda. Reckon it will be like Moldova for a while. BTW, does anyone know what happened to the deputy Premier who flew into Moldova to attend May 9th celebration? I believe his flight was forced to land back as Romania, Ukraine etc didn't allow him to return from Moldova.

[pankajs]

Fox News ‏@FoxNews 55m

Kiev denounces eastern Ukraine referendum as 'farce' as pro-Russia separatists declare victory http://fxn.ws/1sjO8Ee

The Independent ‏@Independent 1h

Pro-Russia separatists claim 90% victory in 'criminal' referendum http://ind.pn/1l1LEYq pic.twitter.com/tD0cCDKjGS

[Philip]

UK Telegraph on the referendum.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... doubt.html

Ukraine's pro-Russian separatists wait on Vladimir Putin as 'Yes' vote on self-rule in little doubt
The results of the vote on “self rule” for the self-styled “People’s Republic of Donetsk” in the east of Ukraine are in little doubt. All eyes are now on the Kremlin .

By Roland Oliphant
11 May 2014

Strangely for a movement that was on Sunday holding a referendum on independence, the rebels who have seized control of parts of Ukraine’s eastern regions do not like being called “separatists”.

In Russia’s state-owned media, the politically correct name for the rebels is “supporters of federalisation” - even though they fly Russian flags, speak openly of wanting to join Russia, and have just organised a plebiscite that seems poised to split Ukraine in two.

Now, that pretence will have to dropped for good. For sometime this week - maybe Monday or Tuesday - the self-styled “People’s Republic of Donetsk” will almost certainly declare itself independent, and the prolonged crisis in Ukraine will enter a new and even more dangerous phase.

The results of Sunday’s vote on “self rule” for the nascent breakaway state in the east of the country are in little doubt.

Reports already suggest a large turnout for a “yes” vote, aided by the almost total boycott of the referendum by dissenters.
Related Articles

Ukraine crisis: rebels claim sovereignty vote victory
12 May 2014

However dirty the vote - and, held as it was against a background of near civil war and in an atmosphere of intimidation in which those considered opponents of the movement have been snatched off the streets, it can hardly be called clean - the self appointed prime minister, Denis Pushilin, is expected to claim a mandate for “self rule”.

No one really knows what that means. The actual word on the ballot paper, samostoyatelnost, is vague, and could imply either independence or something more like devolution.

But in making the claim, the rebels will hand President Vladimir Putin the perfect pretext for the invasion of eastern Ukraine that the Russian leadership appears to have been contemplating - but never quite deciding on - ever since the annexation of Crimea in March.

What comes out of the opaque considerations of the Kremlin will be crucial to the future of Ukraine - and possibly all of Europe.

If Mr Putin is serious about breaking up Ukraine, establishing a province of “Novo Rossia” in its eastern and southern provinces, and ultimately reestablishing the Soviet Union, this is his now-or-never moment.

Eastern Ukraine is in chaos. Law and order has entirely broken down, armed men roam the streets and the economy is in free fall.

Even without the referendum result, things are rapidly reaching the point where Russia could half-credibly argue the introduction of a “peace-keeping force” or Crimean-style “little green men”, might be in everyone’s interests.

Now, as in Crimea, such a mission would have the justification - however flimsy - of providing protection for a people who have expressed their wish for self determination.

But unfortunately for those seeking unification with Russia, there is no sign that Mr Putin has made up his mind to repeat his Crimean escapade.Mr Putin angered many rebels when he publicly called for the referendum to be postponed last week.

It is possible the slippery wording on “self rule” was chosen precisely because Moscow has explained in private that the rebels cannot expect Crimean-style intervention.

The invasion of Crimea was easy and almost bloodless because of the overwhelming support of much of the population, a large pre-existing Russian military presence, and the peninsular’s geographic isolation from the rest of the country.

None of those things are true about eastern Ukraine. And while there is an increasing anti-Kiev sentiment in the region - fuelled by the government’s cack-handed attempts at a military response to the crisis - the risks of an open-ended military entanglement remain high.

So too do the costs of accepting this economically deprived region into the Russian Federation. Russia has already committed to spend billions on improving Crimea’s long-neglected economy, and Mr Putin may not fancy the responsibility of living up to the expectations of another four million people.

[Austin]

Interesting Times Ahead

Gazprom to cut supplies to Ukraine from June if no prepayment

[RSoami]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world ... 328704.htm

"

Somebody in Washington and Kiev is against involvement of (East Ukrainian) regions in the dialogue

, and this is why the roadmap drawn up by the OSCE chair is not disclosed," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters following talks with his Ugandan counterpart Sam Kutesa.

Russia is clearly staying away from taking Europe s name anywhere. Its washington and Kiev only.

[pankajs]

Richard Engel ‏@RichardEngel 32m

Would be a blow where it hurts. Russia may switch off gas supplies to Ukraine starting from June 3, head of Russia’s Gazprom

[Philip]

Veteran Journo Simon Jenkins has these words of wisdom for Western rulers:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... ermination
Ukraine should be left to forge its own course
A key principle of liberal politics is self-determination. Step forward the people of Ukraine – not Washington or London

Simon Jenkins
theguardian.com, Monday 12 May 2014
A woman casts her vote at in Donetsk, Ukraine, in May 2014. 'While Russia’s behaviour has been crude and belligerent, it has rested on local consent'. Photograph: Alexander Ermochenko/Rex

Last night's Ukraine referendum yields not one crisis but two. The first is separatist pressure of the sort that has long plagued the politics of Europe. A poorly drawn border, an ethnic or linguistic minority, an inept central government – all lead to revolt. Resolution lies either in devolution and confederation or in partition and independence. Witness Ireland, Kosovo, Slovakia and Macedonia, and perhaps the Basques, the Catalans and the Scots.

The second crisis is more dangerous. It is when such local conflicts acquire outside sponsors; when they translate into the big power politics. They become test-your-weight machines for heads of state. Intervention is what "real men" do; something "must be done". That is now happening in Ukraine.

The primary player is Russia's Vladimir Putin. He tasted glory in Crimea, clearly responding to popular will following 2014's coup against an elected leader in Kiev. Now eastern Ukraine has shown, by however ramshackle a referendum, an upsurge in separatist sentiment by the strongly pro-Russian population. Putin is happy to exploit such sentiment.

Ukraine has thus become a straightforward test of western machismo. President Obama is vilified for not taking a tougher stance; the EU is criticised as halfhearted; British politicians pontificate about what is "acceptable"; Nato is on guard. Horrific parallels are drawn with Sarajevo in 1914 and Sudetenland in 1939.

A fundamental principle of liberal politics is self-determination. It was for this that Britain went to war in the Falklands and Kosovo, and – so Tony Blair later said – in Iraq. It is for this that David Cameron tolerates a referendum in Scotland and proposes one on the EU. It is a sound principle, and one that should not be discredited.

While Russia's behaviour in Crimea and Ukraine has been crude and belligerent, it has rested on local consent. The regime in Kiev clearly has to accommodate a classic separatist movement within its borders. A new status for eastern Ukraine is vital – but that is Ukraine's business and, given the apparent views of local people, inevitably Russia's business.

This is not Sarajevo or Sudetenland. It is not the business of Washington or London or Brussels. When distant powers feel justified in intervening against the will of peoples, motives get mixed and serious wars begin.

[UlanBatori]

Donetsk asks to join Russia

[RSoami]

And just for fun here is the CNN poll

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/05/12/world ... -cnn-poll/
Ukraine favors Europe over Russia, new CNN poll finds.

[vijaykarthik]

Finally, I get the answer to the qn I put forth. Apparently, Denis Pushilin and a few others have sworn that the May 25th election WONT happen in those regions [Luhansk and Donetsk]. Ouch.

What will this mean international laws wise? I am sure there should be some section, subsection, clause something which says a natl election, well, has to be *TRULY NATIONAL*. And if it isn't, well, what? I am curious about who really advises Pootin. In the meanwhile, its all footin the mouth at the west end. My opinion from here: Putin has moved brilliantly. Will this be enough for him to discredit the elections if it works out bad / good / ugly / whichever way?

Once that is done, anyways since he hasn't really mentioned a goal, he will look like a winner _REGARDLESS_ of how stuff turns out... unless it breaks out in violence and a full blown war (which seems unlikely)

Strategy 101 - Putinistics. Brilliant stuff. 'Nuff said. He will not move anytime soon to conquer E Ukraine. Ukraine is pwned. [When the bravo alpha lima lima sierra are in his hands, he just needs to ensure that the grip is strong enough for the "Kiev powers that be" to groan enough and feel uncomfortable and quit doing stuff which will otherwise be harmful to Putin's interests]

[vijaykarthik]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-1 ... days-after

[Austin]

Wikileaks: Lavrov warned West that NATO's new members 'glorified fascism' back in 2008

Wikileaks has published a cable according to which Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has warned the West that countries that recently joined NATO were doing and saying "whatever they wanted simply because they were under the NATO umbrella." Among other things some of them attempted to "rewrite history and glorify fascists," top Russian diplomat stated.

The cable entitled "Nyet means nyet: Russia's NATO enlargement redlines" also mentions that Lavrov emphasized that Russia was convinced that the bloc's enlargement was not based on security reasons, but instead was a legacy of the Cold War. Moreover, he warned, joining NATO would unlikely help to strengthen democratic governments.

The cable also mentions that "Russia is worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war."

[Austin]

Wikileaks Cables https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MO ... #efmA6CBCj

(U) Lavrov emphasized that Russia was convinced that enlargement was not based on security reasons, but was a legacy of the Cold War. He disputed arguments that NATO was an appropriate mechanism for helping to strengthen democratic governments. He said that Russia understood that NATO was in search of a new mission, but there was a growing tendency for new members to do and say whatever they wanted simply because they were under the NATO umbrella (e.g. attempts of some new member countries to "rewrite history and glorify fascists").

[Austin]

China blames toppling of legitimate gov't for Ukrainian crisis

The toppling of the legitimate Ukrainian authorities by Maidan protesters is the main cause of the Ukrainian crisis, Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Cheng Guoping told Russian reporters in Beijing on Tuesday.

"Concerning the ongoing violence in Ukraine, I think this is the result of the toppling of the legitimate authorities of this country in the course of disturbances and provocations staged on Maidan," the deputy minister said. "This is the direct cause of the crisis," Cheng said.

Another reason for the current situation in Ukraine is the Western policy, he noted.

"External influence, primarily, that of the United States and Western countries which are trying for force Ukraine to follow the development path of Western democracies, cannot be ignored either," the senior diplomat said.

Since the moment the country proclaimed its independence, "Ukraine has been torn between two paths: Western-style development and the path, which meets its national specifications," he said.

"This has an extremely negative effect on the stability and economic development of Ukraine."

"The Ukrainian issue is an internal affair of Ukraine, which needs to be resolved by the Ukrainians themselves. We are opposed to any forms of external interference," the Chinese deputy foreign minister stressed. He added that the Ukrainian problem should be resolved on the basis of the Geneva agreements of April 17, Interfax reports.

West's sanctions against Russia not to help settle Ukrainian crisis - top Chinese diplomat

The sanctions imposed by the West on Russia over the Ukrainian events will not help normalize the situation and settle the crisis in the country, Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Cheng Guoping told Russian reporters in Beijing on Tuesday.

"We believe that the introduction of sanctions against Russia by certain members of the international community is unable to help resolve the Ukrainian crisis," the diplomat said.

Cheng reaffirmed China's readiness to make further efforts to help bring the situation in Ukraine back to normal by political methods.

"As before, the Chinese side is ready to play a constructive role in the cause of resolving the Ukrainian issue by political methods based on the principles of objectivity and justice and in compliance with international law," he said, Interfax reports.

Legitimate interests of all Ukrainians should be respected - top Chinese diplomat

China's Vice Foreign Minister Cheng Guoping said "domestic affairs in Ukraine should be settled by the Ukrainian people," as he responded to TASS request to comment on the results of the referendum in Ukraine's Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

"I believe that the referendum in Ukraine are the internal affair of that country. China's foreign policy course implies non-interference in the domestic policy of foreign states," Cheng Guoping said. "The legitimate interests of all peoples in Ukraine should be respected."

On Monday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said the settlement of the Ukrainian issue should "meet the just, legitimate and reasonable demands of the parties comprehensively, in a balanced way and in full measure."

The Ukrainian crisis must be settled "on the basis of law and order", and the parties need "to settle their disagreements properly," Chinese diplomats said.

[UlanBatori]

According to USAtodin (which is surprisingly factual compared to See Enn Enn), there is a full PA Kargil Victory March in progress in Kiev and EU-stan. Sudden flurry of movements to "grant the regions more powers", "conferences to discuss decentralization of power", "including the (ProDemocracy Freedom Fighters) in the negotiations" etc etc.

[ldev]

Counter sanctions

Russia bans rocket engine sales to US military

Russia not to renew International Space Station agreement

Also will shut down all 11 GPS stations in Russia June 1, unless Glonass is given equivalent stations in the US.

[TSJones]

^^^^ Good. Maybe this will spur the US to develop its own rocket engine needs and associated commercialization for its space program. The technology is rapidly changing and we can build better space habitats for a cheaper price by using Bigelow inflatables. That way we don't have to pay for Russian big mouth space anymore. Let them foot their own bill. I always felt itchy cooperating with those guys. Enough of it. It's like cooperating with Packees. Ugh.

[Philip]

The Odessa Cover-Up: Washington and Kiev’s Crime Against Humanity
Tuesday, May 13, 2014
http://beforeitsnews.com/alternative/20 ... 55490.html

21st Century Wire says…

If there was ever an exhibit of just how low, evasive and putrid the US and EU political and media establishments have become in the 21st century, this is it. The political spin which sees the dead as collateral damage along the road to western policy attainment – is shameful.

The A-Z fraud of the US-EU marionette coup de tat in Kiev, along with their cutting radical pragmatism and universal denial of any subversive methods used by the US State Department’s neocon operative Victoria Nuland – will be a black mark on the US international records for decades to come. As she and her colleagues undermine 70 years of progress in fighting political fascism in Europe, the rest of the Washington X-Box regime changers callously ignore any henious crimes that run counter to President Obama’s thinly written speeches, or those of his the low-empathy surrogate Jay Carney. Theirs, along with John Kerry, Joe Biden, John McCain and Nuland’s mentor Hillary Clinton, typifies the culture of shallowness and moral relativism which has defined this US President, and the US government.

And despite all that is wrong with the US involvement in the Ukraine, it is self-evident that Obama’s White House has OK’d the deployment of at least 400 Blackwater/Academi mercenaries troops in that country – with what other purpose than to intensify the violence in Eastern Ukraine.

This was the Ukraine’s own “Waco Moment”. Did the ‘Janet Reno-style’ order to burn innocents alive in Odessa come from the CIA’s new operating base located on the top floor of the government security building in Kiev, or from closer to home?

Odessa Atrocity Erupts in Peaceful City, And No One Wonders Why?

William Boardman
OpEd News

Kiev supporters burn opponents alive in Odessa, police do nothing.

The acting president of Ukraine, Oleksandr Turchynov told regional governors on May 1st that the Kiev interim government was “helpless” to re-establish central government control in eastern Ukraine, where anti-Kiev forces (pro-independence and/or pro-Russian) have taken control of numerous cities in a manner imitating the way the Kiev government itself seized power in February.


“I will be frank. Today, security forces are unable to take the situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions quickly under control,” Turchynov said at the May Day meeting. He reported that numerous Ukrainian military and security personnel had defected to the rebels, taking their arms with them. With Kiev’s authority in doubt in much of eastern Ukraine, Turchynov said his government’s plan was to try to slow pro-Russian gains by concentrating on the defense of Kharkiv in the northeast and Odessa in the southwest.

For months, Odessa (population about one million) had remained relatively peaceful despite turmoil in other parts of the country. Odessa was more disturbed by speculation than active demonstrations. The April 16 declaration of the “Odessa People’s Republic” turned out to be a hoax and European monitors reported that the city remained calm. On April 23 in Odessa, people from various sides, including supporters of Euromaidan (pro-Kiev) and supporters of Antimaidan (pro-Russian culturally, but not always pro-separatist), agreed that the greatest threat to Ukraine was from abroad. They reportedly worked together to establish checkpoints around Odessa to defend against pro-Russian provocateurs.

The day after acting president Turchynov spoke of being “helpless,” the Kiev government launched its largest military operation to date in eastern Ukraine, an action that is still causing casualties on both sides, as the fighting continues at a low intensity.

On the same day, May 2, Odessa suffered more civilian deaths than any place in Ukraine since some 70 people died in Kiev in February, in the course of the bloody coup that brought the present government to power.

What happened in Odessa on May 2 remains somewhat murky

According to RT (Russian Television in English) in a late report that day, the events of May 2 started quietly and ended with violence and bloodshed (that has since been widely confirmed, although precise numbers remain uncertain):

“39 anti-government activists have died in a fire at Odessa’s Trade Unions House. Some burned to death, while others suffocated or jumped out of windows, the Ukrainian Interior Ministry reported. The building was set ablaze by pro-Kiev radicals.”

Earlier on May 2, around 2 p.m., some 1,500 pro-Kiev demonstrators gathered for a peaceful assembly in support of national unity, according to Agence France-Presse: at some point, “hundreds of pro-Russian militants swinging batons and wearing helmets on Friday attacked [the] rally”. Police intervened to try to break up the violence, which left dozens wounded on both sides.”

Where AFP saw an attack, RT saw a collision:

“A pro-unity demonstration, which included nationalists and football fans, ran into a rally preaching greater autonomy for the regions. Gunfire was heard” as two rival rallies met, police having failed to draw them apart. Over 2,000 protesters pelted each other with Molotov cocktails and smoke grenades. Pavements were dismantled to get the stones for the fight, like it was done in Kiev during the Maidan protests. Local police reported that four people were killed in the stand-off, and at least one of them died due to a gun-shot wound. At least 37 received injuries in clashes”.

“Some of the people in the group were wearing the ultra-nationalist Right Sector movement insignia. They were also armed with chains and bats and carried shields, as an Itar-Tass correspondent on the ground reported. The group tried to march through the city, chanting ‘Glory to Ukraine,’ ‘Death to enemies,’ ‘Knife the Moskals [derogatory for Russians]‘”.”

Judging by some of the available video, most of the crowd was not involved in any violence. People by the hundreds mill about like a crowd at a carnival, wandering around an intersection where nothing appears to be happening, while a large cluster of people to one side looks down a street toward a sideshow, something billowing smoke out of sight of the camera. Even when there are explosions or when shots ring out, no one seems to react. The crowd is overwhelmingly male. A lone young woman with a camera seems unconcerned in the middle of the street. Some of the men are masked, or wearing uniforms of one sort or another; some wear helmets and quite a few carry sticks or clubs, and shields, but firearms are rarely shown. Only a few people have cameras visible. A group of ten or more pro-Kiev men hijack a fire truck, then sit on it without moving. A Molotov cocktail burns on an empty street.

A long video compilation starts in bright daylight, showing police forming a line with their backs to one group of protestors as they face a sketchy barricade of lumber, ladders, a dumpster, panels of some sort, and other large detritus. Beyond this is another crowd in the distance. Some in the near crowd throw stones over the police in front of them, but it’s unlikely any can throw far enough to reach the other crowd. These police do nothing to intervene. Later there are some 30 police huddled together behind their shields as a handful of young men pelt them with rocks. In other shots there are men (not police) with handguns and automatic weapons.

Kiev proxies perpetrated the worst carnage of the day

Later in the day, the pro-Kiev forces attack a large stone building, five stories tall, with a colonnaded front entrance that is barricaded by its defenders. The attackers dismantle and burn an encampment in front of the building, dismantling a speaker’s platform and towers for lights and sound equipment. This is Odessa’s Trade Unions House and it is under siege, surrounded by a scattered, bustling crowd of hundreds of mostly armed men. Some throw stones at the defenders. Shots are fired. Farther back are thin ranks of hundreds of onlookers, many passively taking pictures. It appears to be a scene of relentless, low-intensity but extreme vandalism.

Trade Unions House in Odessa: Many were burned alive as police made no attempt to stop the carnage by pro-Kiev fascist mobs.

Later, the barricade is gone and no defenders are visible in front of the building. The pro-Kiev attackers have set fire to perhaps a dozen tents in front of the building and they burn into the night. Flames twenty feet high engulf the entrance to the Trade Unions House. Intense flames rage inside the ground floor and thick, black smoke pours out of windows on several floors (it looks like a stairwell on fire). There are people inside the building, fifty reportedly trapped on the roof. In the twilight, police arrive quietly, in formation, without reaction from the crowd. The police don’t do much. Wounded or dead victims are dragged or wheeled about, or left lying on the pavement. No one fights any of the fires. There are more occasional shots or small explosions to which no one visibly reacts. There is no sign that people inside the building are fighting back. The crowd gets noisy when more than half a dozen people from inside the building appear along a narrow ledge, between smoking windows. Some of the onlookers have moved one of the light and sound towers next to the building, allowing people on the ledge to climb down the pipe framing, with police surrounding the base.

In another tape, someone throws a Molotov cocktail that hits the side of the building and burns on a ledge. A heavyset man in a blue uniform shoots his pistol at the building. A man crouches on a ledge above the crowd as smoke and flames pour from a window to his right. Someone throws a Molotov cocktail that burns on the ledge on the other side of the window. Later the man is gone. If any of the dozens of men in uniform are police, they are doing nothing to control the crowd. A crawling, wounded man is kicked from behind. There are other wounded people, some getting medical attention (officially, more than 200 were wounded during the day).

At dusk, some people start rescuing those trapped in the building
At one window of the Trade Unions House is the Ukrainian flag. Two people hang onto the outside of a window frame of a smoking third-floor window.

At another window there are flames inside. People are leaning out of other third floor windows. Someone throws a Molotov cocktail at them, but misses. The crowd remains quiet, ignoring explosions. Drumming begins in the distance and lasts a few minutes. A rescue effort using ropes and a sound/light tower and a ladder takes almost half an hours, but frees several people from the third floor. The second floor continues to burn nearby, but another ladder allows a few more people to escape from a smoking window. A man in a white helmet climbs a ladder to a third floor window and leads more people down. Firefighters in white helmets have extinguished the blaze at the front door. There are still hundreds of people in front of the building, but they are quiet, and the tent fires have burned out. It is dark. What light there is comes mostly from flashing emergency vehicles.

In the aftermath, inside the Trade Unions House , a 14-minute video travels with what appear to be police officers walking through a series of offices that have been trashed, but are not burned. The “officers” occasionally rummage through papers, but ignore the occasional, apparently lifeless body. Outside, in the dark, people are milling about, occasionally calling out, sometimes laughing, mostly quiet until a group starts to chant in the distance.

This fragmentary and non-linear impression of events in Odessa is based predominantly on several hours of video for which there is no reliable verification (or discrediting). The cumulative effect of seeing many of the same moments from different angles lends credence to the reality of what is shown. Little if any of it could have been staged without great effort that surely someone would have noticed. It’s hard to find a credible and detailed account of that day’s events anywhere, never mind in mainstream media [the best I have seen so far are by RT (several) and the BBC on May 6].

GRAPHIC: 39 people die after radicals set Trade Unions House on fire in Ukraine’s Odessa http://t.co/yH62Mwtbtj pic.twitter.com/7zIH4K87Z8

— illumynous (@illumynous) May 4, 2014


Given what looks like mob murder, how would western media play it?

At this point, a reasonable interpretation of fragmentary evidence suggests that there were distinct but related events in Odessa on May 2.

The first event began with the afternoon march of some 1,500 pro-Ukainian unity supporters, including hardcore fans of two Ukrainian soccer teams (Odessa vs. Kharkiv) as well as veterans of the Maidan Self Defense Force and members of Right Sector, the right wing political party that supplied much of the muscle in the Maidan’s resistance to the then-government. They then clashed with about 500 pro-Russian separatists, in a street fight with little close combat, although as many as four people died and others were injured.

According to one report, that clash lasted about 15 minutes before the outnumbered pro-Russians retreated to the square in front of the Trade Unions House, where they had been camping out since February in a peaceful protest against the Kiev-coup government. (Odessa has a Russian ethnic minority of about 30%, or 300,000 people.)

The second event, the attack on the Trade Unions House (a mile or more away from the first clash), began some time later (likely flowing out of the first event, whether by design or opportunity). It formed for reasons that remain unclear — except for the ethnic/political hostility represented by the participants. The soccer/Maidan/Right Sector forces outnumbered the pro-Russians by 3 to 1, and appear to have been better armed as well. They had little difficulty driving the pro-Russians out of their encampment, then tearing it apart and setting it on fire. The pro-Kiev forces seem to have had little resistance from the pro-Russians, first forcing them back inside the Trade Unions Hall, then setting it on fire at multiple points, demonstrating what appears, at best, a willful disregard for life and safety.

For the most part western media seem to have underplayed or ignored the reality of Odessa (or distorted it) for the sake of a propagandistic linkage to the Kiev government’s military offensive against Slovyansk, half a country away. As the New York Times headlined it on May 3 (inside story on page 7): “Ukrainian Troops Strike Rebel-Held City as Fighting Spreads to Black Sea Port” — an incoherent headline on its face that gets only less coherent in the context of reality. The story below that headline includes exactly two, self-contradictory paragraphs about Odessa, one of which appears to be fiction:

“The deaths [on May 2] expand the increasingly violent struggle for control over Ukraine’s Black Sea port, which had been quiet until last week, when seven people were wounded in a roadside bombing.”

That’s the entire report of an attack for which there is no date, no location, no identification of the perpetrators, no identification of any of the victims, and no reaction from any official. A Google search produced no other reference anywhere to this alleged roadside bombing. And the Times itself omits mention of the bombing in its longer, next-day story (inside on page 14) which goes back to reporting that Odessa “had been mostly calm” before May 2. (Another report referred to May 2 as Odessa’s “blackest day since 1941, when Nazi-allied Romanian occupying troops killed thousands of Jews.)

Dishonest media bang the drums for war in Ukraine

Although Reuters is sometimes considered among the more reliable news organizations, it’s on board with the propaganda designed to persuade its readers of the “inevitability” of war — and, more subtly, of the righteousness of “our” side. A Reuters story on May 6, under a deceptive headline — “Both sides bury dead as Ukraine slides towards war” — begins with a lede that offers the basis for a case study in manipulation of a sort common to American mainstream media from MSNBC to Fox:

“KRAMATORSK/ODESSA, Ukraine (Reuters) – Both sides have been burying their dead as Ukraine slides further towards war, with supporters of Russia and of a united Ukraine accusing each other of tearing the country apart.”

‘Both sides’ is an inherently misleading phrase, since it is rare in any conflict that there are only two sides, especially in the conflict’s early stages.

‘Both sides’ is meaningless — worse than meaningless, it, conceals meaning when applied to Ukraine, where there are, at a minimum, nine identifiable “sides” or factions, often over-lapping:

(1) Ukrainians who want a non-aligned, free, independent Ukraine;

(2) Ukrainians who want a western-aligned but independent Ukraine;

(3) Ukrainians who want an anti-Russian Ukraine in NATO;

(4) Americans (and some of their allies) who have been working for decades to use Ukraine to threaten Russia;

(5) Ukrainians who want a Russian-dominated Ukraine (for example, the elected government that was overthrown in February);

(6) Ukrainians who want a federal Ukraine (similar to U.S.) in which dominant ethnic groups have significant independence;

(7) Ukrainians who want one or more independent states established within what is now Ukraine (i.e., Republic of Donetsk);

(8) Ukrainians who want to be part of Russia (i.e., Crimea);

(9) Russians who want one or more of these options, but mostly want the U.S./west to end their decades of threatening and leave Ukraine as much in Russia’s sphere of influence as Mexico is in America’s.

“Both sides” means what to Reuters? Which two of nine or more “sides” does Reuters want you to think about?

Apparently Reuters wants you to think this is a conflict between Kiev and Moscow, as if Washington had played no role. That makes no sense, unless one assumes some sort of political purity in Kiev, despite the regime’s illegitimacy and subsequent actions; the Kiev/Moscow reductionism also requires one to assume some sort of pure political malevolency in Moscow, despite its failure to intervene militarily yet and its legitimate interests in what happens on its border and what happens to ethnic Russians beyond its borders. A closer equivalence is between Washington and Moscow, each of which would like to achieve its own geopolitical goals (boding little good for Ukraine either way) without leaving more fingerprints at the crime scene that can be helped. Only a fool would assume that the American CIA chief visited Kiev to tell the government that the U.S. was not getting more involved in the struggle. Only a fool would believe that Kiev’s subsequent offensive against protesters (whose actions have been little different from those in the Maidan last winter) was all Kiev’s idea. Compared to the elected government’s restraint in the face of the Maidan protests, the current Kiev regime is proceeding with lethal rapidity and no apparent comparable effort to negotiate through the crisis.

“Both sides” is an obvious fiction even within the Reuters story, since those who are “burying their dead” are perhaps on opposites sides (of nine or more) politically, but they are not even close to being on opposite sides of the same confrontation. One side, in Kramatorsk, in northeast Ukraine, is more than 400 miles away from the “other” side in Odessa, in southwest Ukraine. These people are, most likely, total strangers — not two sides of a neat prevarication.

“Burying their dead” is emotive language, apparently employed here to stir passion, since the burials themselves have no inherent news value (and Reuters doesn’t even try to fake that part).”

“Ukraine slides further towards war” misrepresents just about every aspect of what is happening. The underlying assumption, that Ukraine IS sliding towards war cannot be proven until it happens, which gives it an aspect of self-fulfilling prophecy. Focusing only on Ukraine falsifies a situation that includes Russia, the United States, Europe, Israel, border states, and an uncertain number of other actors. “Slides” is a slippery word that suggests no one is in control, when surely one or more sides in Ukraine are strategically ready (if not eager) to accept war.

And why just “war” — why not “civil war”? Lowgrade civil war may describe just what is happening now in Ukraine, where Ukrainians killing Ukrainians has continued its escalatory creep. Is Reuters secretly dreaming of a wider “war”?

According to Reuters, “both sides” means “supporters of Russia and of a united Ukraine,” as if there weren’t another seven of more articulable political positions. So it’s nonsense on its face. But what does “supporters of Russia” even mean? What does a “supporter of Russia” want? Annexation? Independence? Autonomy within Ukraine? Friendly international relations? Puppies? And supporters of a “united Ukraine”? What do they want? NATO membership? European Union membership? Non-aligned independence? A federal system? What? What we know about the usurping government in Kiev is that its very first act was to remove Russian from its official language status, which infuriated Russian speakers, no surprise. Kiev has since reinstated Russian’s official language status, but it’s nowhere near reinstating even minimal trust from people who might be labeled “supporters of Russia.”

Ukrainians “accusing each other of tearing the country apart” stand a good chance of being correct, no matter who they are. For a country to be torn apart it must first be a coherent whole, a state of being that Ukraine has never achieved for any significant period of time. So any accusation of tearing the country apart is more like a euphemism for “you’re not doing what I want.” In a situation with nine or more sides, you’re going to hear that a lot.

The reality in Ukraine is that no one likes the reality in Ukraine

Almost everyone who talks about Ukraine talks about the need for peaceful solutions, though it’s not at all clear how many of those people mean anything more than “accept my point of view.” From the available evidence, it seems safe to assume that Ukraine is not filled with peacemakers, although there seems to be a majority of Ukrainians ready to live peacefully if they’re just left alone [a speculation perhaps too rosy to be real]. A few in the current government seem, on occasion, to have peaceful instincts but insufficient moral authority to persuade many of their peers to temper their rhetoric and work patiently for a broadly-supported settlement, assuming one could be devise. Such a settlement, difficult enough under internal Ukrainian conditions, is impossible under international conditions. It’s not just that Washington and Moscow are facing off, which would be bad enough. It’s that Washington has slowly but relentlessly pushed Moscow into a corner where it has little choice but to resist or resign itself to hostile western advances more or less forever.

Ukraine is not surrounded by peacemakers, and even those European governments inclined to find a compromise are themselves compromised by an uncompromising United States, which lacks even the simple human decency to condemn burning innocent people alive.

“The events in Odessa dramatically underscore the need for an immediate de-escalation of tensions in Ukraine,” White House spokesman Jay Carney said with near-pathological lack of empathy. “The violence and efforts to destabilize the country must end.” It’s unlikely he was referring to the decades-long effort by the United States, its allies, and its proxies to achieve such destabilization for their own benefit. It’s even less likely that the Obama administration will acknowledge its unique position to de-escalate tensions by easing up its own efforts to de-stabilize and control Ukraine by proxy. At this point, only a significant shift of American policy can offer any hope for Ukraine. That’s bad news for Ukraine.

In reaction to the massacre in Odessa, where the death toll stands at 46 with another 48 still missing, the Kiev government sacked the top leadership of the Odessa police department. Acting interior minister Arsen Avakov said on Facebook that he fired the police officials “for failing to prevent a pro-Russian mob from attacking a pro-Ukrainian rally, a confrontation that touched off the violence on Friday,” according to the Times on May 6, without alluding to the police role in relation to the mob action that burned people alive.

Earlier in its inside shirttail (page 11) the NY Times referred to the burial of “one of the pro-Russian leaders, Vyachislav Markin.” With an almost Orwellian approach to re-writing history to fit he current propaganda, the Times wrote with cold distortion that: “Mr. Markin perished in the fire that burned a trade union building where pro-Russian activists had holed up after losing a street battle with pro-Ukrainian activists on Friday.”

Two days after the May 2 violence during which police arrested more than 100 people, several hundred pro-Russian supporters gathered at a police jail, forcing open its gate. Significantly outnumbered, police offered no resistance and released about 70 prisoners.

To replace the deposed Odessa police officers, minister Avakov has sent an elite police unit from Kiev to keep order in Odessa. The new police unit, called Kiev-1 battalion, comprises mostly veterans of the Maidan occupation that drove out the elected government in February. The nature and arrival of this special police unit, among an estimated 4,000 pro-Kiev troops sent to the city, has raised suspicions in Odessa where Bloomberg (among others) reports widespread uncertainty:

“Conspiracy theories are rife on both sides [sic]. Pro-Russian groups say the gunmen who started it all by opening fire on a peaceful demonstration by pro-Ukrainian soccer fans were paid by officials in Kiev to justify military action and subdue the rebels by force. Nationalists say Russia planned the attack to spread insurrection and weaken the central government. Both sides accuse the police of inaction and Ukrainian prosecutors have started an investigation.

“Ukraine’s government blamed the events on Russia’s Federal Security Service, the main successor to the Soviet-era KGB, and said the fire broke out after pro-Russians threw Molotov cocktails from inside. They were seeking to escape fighting that broke out after a march for Ukrainian unity was attacked.

“The speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament, Sergei Naryshkin, said Ukrainian radicals including the nationalist Pravy Sektor [Right Sector] group are pursuing ‘genocide’.”

Things may get a lot worse in Ukraine before they start getting worse

Among the recent indicators of how things are going, the “helpless” Kiev government goes on killing fellow Ukrainians for their wrong opinions and the U.S. State Department warns people not to travel in Ukraine, while other parts of the American government support the unelected junta that is tinged with white racism and relies on street gangs to keep the natives from getting too restless. In the longer term, these developments might matter:

“Since mid-April, Kiev has been reducing the supply of fresh water to Crimea. Reportedly Kiev plane to cut off Crimea’s fresh water supply completely and has already begun building a dam for that purpose.

“Russia says it’s pulling troops back from positions within 50 miles of the Ukrainian border, and the United States says no, they’re not, without producing any of the satellite evidence that everyone knows would settle the factual issue.

“With a narrow strait from the Black Sea separating Crimea from mainland Russia, Crimea would be at continuing disadvantage with Ukraine as its only overland border state — except that now a Chinese state construction company has agreed to build a bridge between Crimea and Russia.

So why doesn’t the United States build more bridges, maybe even start at home?

READ MORE UKRAINE NEWS AT: 21st Century Wire Ukraine Files

[UlanBatori]

Also will shut down all 11 GPS stations in Russia June 1,

Brother! They've already done that, I think. Been getting lost all over Northern Himachal, GPS saying "turn left" when I can SEE the place is on the right, commanding U-turns,...
If this keeps up I may have to resort to getting maps and actually remembering where I am going.