West Asia News and Discussions

[sanman]

[Baikul]

Israel has entered southern Syria via the Golan heights calling it a defensive move.

This the ‘geo- political’ map of Syria today:

- Israel in the south west

- US in the northeast and east via the Kurds (this is the region with the oil fields)

- Turkey and Qatar / Saudi Arabia (HTS and SNA) have Damascus to the north, which is south, centre and northwest

- And post Assad the presently apparently leaderless Alawite / Shia minority on the important west coast.

The eastern part is now under U.S. occupation, while the northeastern and central parts are under Kurdish occupation.
The area from the northwest to Damascus is now the territory of HTS, which has united with Turkey.
The Syrian state no longer exists and has been completely dismantled.

[Baikul]

One thing remarkable about this ‘war’ if I may add:

The number of military dead in the entire campaign are probably less than the number dying in vehicle accidents every year in Syria.

Make of that what you will

[sanman]

Israel has entered southern Syria via the Golan heights calling it a defensive move.

This the ‘geo- political’ map of Syria today:

Israel in the south west, US in the northeast and east via the Kurds (this is the region with the oil fields), Turkey and Qatar / Saudi Arabia (HTS and SNA) have Damascus to the north, which is south, centre and northwest . And post Assad the presently apparently leaderless Alawite / Shia minority on the important west coast.

The eastern part is now under U.S. occupation, while the northeastern and central parts are under Kurdish occupation.
The area from the northwest to Damascus is now the territory of HTS, which has united with Turkey.
The Syrian state no longer exists and has been completely dismantled.

NeoCon Nuland & Co have finished off Syria's Assad, just like they finished off Libya's Qadafi, just like they finished off Saddam in Iraq.

But they weren't successful in finishing off Russia or Putin - although they have now driven him out of Syria.

So they've notched up yet another success in "making the world safe for Israel"
They'll have to finish off Hezbollah next, along with Palestinians. Then they'll have to figure out how to destroy Iran after weakening it.
Will it be thru big Balochistan endgame?

Meanwhile we Indians have suffered collateral damage in the process (Bangla, Khalistanis)

[sanman]

Possible footage of Assad plane crash?

[Baikul]

Possible footage of Assad plane crash?

** that’s supposed to be from a different crash. Let’s see though

[Baikul]

A fragile peace post Assad is already under threat. The victorious factions have started to squabble over the spoils. Turkey backed SNA is in combat with the Kurdish SDF in Manbij, a key eastern town. Turkish airplanes have struck SDF targets in Manbij.

The inherent contradictions between Turkey and the US/ Israel supported Kurds on display here.

[Baikul]

This deserves a separate post.

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/s ... 2024-12-08

Netanyahu has declared that the 1974 disengagement agreement on Golan is null, and is creating a bigger buffer zone inside Syria!

Israel’s airforce has struck targets near Damascus, and Daraa and Quenitra which are near Golan heights.

[chanakyaa]

Most of the times, I simply follow the money to keep it simple to understand

Syria's proven oil reserves 2.5 billion barrel of oil and 8.5 trillion cubic feet of Natural Gas
The oil fields north of Deir al-Zour were already in the hands of U-know-who, since 2014

At $60, it is equivalent to $150 billion (not including natural gas), enough cashflow for the culinary institutes of the world to -- fund NGOs, spread narco terror, buy/sell weapons, topple governments, provide scholarships/awards to trouble makers around the world, feed liberals/communists ityadi...what a self sustaining enterprise.

[sanman]

A fragile peace post Assad is already under threat. The victorious factions have started to squabble over the spoils. Turkey backed SNA is in combat with the Kurdish SDF in Manbij, a key eastern town. Turkish airplanes have struck SDF targets in Manbij.

The inherent contradictions between Turkey and the US/ Israel supported Kurds on display here.

Trump abandoned the Kurds the last time, without hesitation. SecState Mattis resigned over this.

When he comes into office, he may sit by and let Turkey flatten the Kurdish SDF.

Turkey can then expand its footprint in northern Syria

[sanman]

This deserves a separate post.

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/s ... 2024-12-08

Netanyahu has declared that the 1974 disengagement agreement on Golan is null, and is creating a bigger buffer zone inside Syria!

Israel’s airforce has struck targets near Damascus, and Daraa and Quenitra which are near Golan heights.

But will Israeli's expanded footprint in Syria's Golan then result in another Shebaa Farms situation, resulting in attacks on these positions down the road?

HTS leader Jolani is currently going out of his way to express friendship towards Israel, but later he could flip-flop and change his stance.

Israel's longstanding position is that Syrians should be kept fighting one another, so that nobody can come out on top and take on Israel.

[Baikul]

Assad is in Moscow, most likely

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-12-08/

[Baikul]

But will Israeli's expanded footprint in Syria's Golan then result in another Shebaa Farms situation, resulting in attacks on these positions down the road?

HTS leader Jolani is currently going out of his way to express friendship towards Israel, but later he could flip-flop and change his stance.

Israel's longstanding position is that Syrians should be kept fighting one another, so that nobody can come out on top and take on Israel.

Anything can happen in this Syria where land grab is the current flavour of the season and Israel is grabbing with the best of them.

As are SNA, HTS, SDF and any damn acronym you can think of. Name it and they’ll be there elbow jostling with the best.

As for Jolani, he may be be accommodating now, but let’s see how the ex- Al Qaeda guy turns out once he gets his hands on actual power. I note that the given name ‘Jolani’ comes from the fact that he’s from Golan, from where his family were kicked out by Israel decades ago. So he may be hoping for a delayed ghar wapsi….

[sanman]

Assad is in Moscow, most likely

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-12-08/

With Syrian Army troops surrendering or fleeing into Iraq, then will it be possible to form a military force in exile in Iraq, to eventually stage a comeback and dislodge HTS from power?

If Assad is alive, then could he serve as the nominal head of such a force?
Will Russia stay in Assad's corner, and will anyone else be there?

I'd heard that Iran prefers its own fundas over Assad, since these fundas are directly loyal to Tehran and its goals.

What I see here is that Saudi and Gulf Sheikhdoms will support HTS to push back Iran's influence, perhaps even expanding their fight into Iraq.
I think that much is guaranteed.

[sanman]

[sanman]

Anything can happen in this Syria where land grab is the current flavour of the season and Israel is grabbing with the best of them.

As are SNA, HTS, SDF and any damn acronym you can think of. Name it and they’ll be there elbow jostling with the best.

As for Jolani, he may be be accommodating now, but let’s see how the ex- Al Qaeda guy turns out once he gets his hands on actual power. I note that the given name ‘Jolani’ comes from the fact that he’s from Golan, from where his family were kicked out by Israel decades ago. So he may be hoping for a delayed ghar wapsi….

Some people are commenting that this HTS takeover is a big win for Turkey, which will now use its upper hand to force the Kurds out of northeastern Syria, and into more southerly locales being vacated by the Aluwaites.

[Tanaji]

The speed at which the government fell has me gobsmacked. No doubt this has fingerprints of the culinary institute all over it. The neo cons dream of reshaping the mid east is becoming a reality with only Iran remaining. Although one suspects this is 20 years too late and a lot has changed now. Ironically it now feels that the Arabs are more accommodating but Israel isn’t - egged on by the neo cons as it serves both purposes - further hindering Russia and shaping the middle Easy.

There is going to be massive blow back , not immediately but in 5-10 years. Syria will be lawless and an epicentre of Islamic terrorism. Who knows what lengths the mullahs of Iran will go to when they are pushed into a corner like they are now?

[sanman]

The speed at which the government fell has me gobsmacked. No doubt this has fingerprints of the culinary institute all over it. The neo cons dream of reshaping the mid east is becoming a reality with only Iran remaining. Although one suspects this is 20 years too late and a lot has changed now. Ironically it now feels that the Arabs are more accommodating but Israel isn’t - egged on by the neo cons as it serves both purposes - further hindering Russia and shaping the middle Easy.

There is going to be massive blow back , not immediately but in 5-10 years. Syria will be lawless and an epicentre of Islamic terrorism. Who knows what lengths the mullahs of Iran will go to when they are pushed into a corner like they are now?

Watch this interesting interview with a Syria-watcher, which I found rather eye-opening:

[sanman]

Ritter says Syria fell because its army was decayed and govt corrupt

[Baikul]

It’s a fast moving situation, so I’ll continue to try and summarise initial takeaways, as and when I get time. First the impact on Russia:

1. Reputational loss; Russia has lost its status as a key player since Syria was its main ally in the region. With its partner gone, Russia loses some leverage over regional players such as Iraq, and obviously is much diminished as well compared to the U.S.

In fact I’d argue that this is a global reputational setback. The speed with which Assad’s government was overthrown also underlines Moscow’s inability to safeguard its partners.

2. Military: The strategic bases of Khmeimim and Tartus (the port) are likely lost; these were the logistical hub for all military ops in the region, particularly Africa.

Tartus was to be the hub for Russia centric trade and military logistics and ops.

In the short term this degrades Russian ability to conduct operations or respond to military crises across ME, Africa and the Mediterranean.

3. Economic: Russia has invested billions in Syria, particularly in fertilisers and oil exploration. These deals may be reevaluated. The loss of the port of Tartus (if it happens) will have a significant impact on trade, as it was going to be the hub to move oil and gas to the Mediterranean and the Black Sea (now likely fall into Turkey’s lap)

[sanman]

It’s a fast moving situation, so I’ll continue to try and summarise initial takeaways, as and when I get time. First the impact on Russia:

1. Reputational loss; Russia has lost its status as a key player since Syria was its main ally in the region. With its partner gone, Russia loses some leverage over regional players such as Iraq, and obviously is much diminished as well compared to the U.S.

In fact I’d argue that this is a global reputational setback. The speed with which Assad’s government was overthrown also underlines Moscow’s inability to safeguard its partners.

2. Military: The strategic bases of Khmeimim and Tartus (the port) are likely lost; these were the logistical hub for all military ops in the region, particularly Africa.

Tartus was to be the hub for Russia centric trade and military logistics and ops.

In the short term this degrades Russian ability to conduct operations or respond to military crises across ME, Africa and the Mediterranean.

3. Economic: Russia has invested billions in Syria, particularly in fertilisers and oil exploration. These deals may be reevaluated. The loss of the port of Tartus (if it happens) will have a significant impact on trade, as it was going to be the hub to move oil and gas to the Mediterranean and the Black Sea (now likely fall into Turkey’s lap)

Who's paying for this new Syrian Taliban colour-revolution? Turkey may not be as bankrupt as Pakistan, but Turkey still doesn't have the money to outbid everyone else for long.

Turkey may have done the initial support work to kick things off, but how can they guarantee they'll stay in control over HTS?
Where does Turkey have any Haqqania-style madrassa to ensure HTS loyalty?
What's to prevent HTS from cutting new deal with wealthy Saudis & Gulf Sheikhdoms who have a stronger motivation against Iran than Turkey does?

Ideal configuration would be if HTS switches over to Saudi funding, and maintains an allance with Kurdish SDF.
Russia/Putin would find it more useful to collaborate with Saudis/MBS in this regard, rather than accepting loss of face from Turkish backstab.

But if there's a power struggle between Syria's neighbors that plays out inside that country, then it could be a replay of Afghan & Iraqi civil wars.
At that point, jockeying rivals will turn to the shortcut of ultra-funda fanaticism, like ISI/Taliban or ISIS did.

[sanman]

https://x.com/Agdchan/status/1866212848495714734

[chetak]

The speed at which the government fell has me gobsmacked. No doubt this has fingerprints of the culinary institute all over it. The neo cons dream of reshaping the mid east is becoming a reality with only Iran remaining. Although one suspects this is 20 years too late and a lot has changed now. Ironically it now feels that the Arabs are more accommodating but Israel isn’t - egged on by the neo cons as it serves both purposes - further hindering Russia and shaping the middle Easy.

There is going to be massive blow back , not immediately but in 5-10 years. Syria will be lawless and an epicentre of Islamic terrorism. Who knows what lengths the mullahs of Iran will go to when they are pushed into a corner like they are now?

Watch this interesting interview with a Syria-watcher, which I found rather eye-opening:

[youtube]tx5SJBTkDsw[youtube]

sanman ji,


Russia was busy with UKR,

eyeraan was tied down

israel needed asad out because they needed more control for a buffer zone beyond the golan heights and asad was under the protection of both eyeraan and russia so the chefs couldn't touch him until now ...

the amrikis started this project way back with the arab spring

the chefs at the culinary institute finally had all the ingredients that they needed for the recipe

So, they baked a christmas cake.

[sanman]

sanman ji,


Russia was busy with UKR,

eyeraan was tied down

israel needed asad out (asad was under the protection of both eyeraan and russia so the chefs couldn't touch him until now)

the amrikis started this project way back with the arab spring

the chefs at the culinary institute finally had all the ingredients that they needed for the recipe

So, they baked a christmas cake.

I think that just like the Ukraine missile strikes against Russian territory and all the US presidential pardons, the Biden admin are trying to shove certain vital agenda items through the door before they lose power when Trump takes office.

Like I said, I think that Assad has been overthrown as a follow-up to the overthrow of Qadafi and Saddam -- because the NeoCons like Nuland are trying to "make the world safe for Israel"

What will happen is that Syria will now be more severely torn apart by internal civil war, just like Iraq was and Afghanistan was.

All that stuff like the ISIS atrocities against Yazidis and Christians will now happen again in Syria.

[sanman]

https://x.com/stairwayto3dom/status/1865829379713999239



WTF?! That sounds nuts.
How is it that Assad was giving up without a fight?
Assad seems to have done a Hasina.

Why were Russia & UAE throwing in the towel ahead of Iran?

Oh well, at least Russians gave him sanctuary - unlike how we let Najib die (because we're slow-witted incompetent eunuchs)

[Baikul]

https://x.com/stairwayto3dom/status/1865829379713999239



WTF?! That sounds nuts.
How is it that Assad was giving up without a fight?
Assad seems to have done a Hasina.

Why were Russia & UAE throwing in the towel ahead of Iran?

Oh well, at least Russians gave him sanctuary - unlike how we let Najib die (because we're slow-witted incompetent eunuchs)

The Iranians have been saying for a few days that they’d warned Assad but he didn’t listen. That sounds like a bit of rewriting the narrative to me.

Given their level of domination and influence over Assad’s Syria, it’s hard to I believe that Iran said something and he wouldn’t listen.

It feels correct though that once the battle started, Assad seems to have given up. He made few of any public pronouncements, didn’t show up publicly in Damascus far less the frontlines, nothing that a war leader is supposed to do publicly.

[sanman]

The Iranians have been saying for a few days that they’d warned Assad but he didn’t listen. That sounds like a bit of rewriting the narrative to me.

Given their level of domination and influence over Assad’s Syria, it’s hard to I believe that Iran said something and he wouldn’t listen.

It feels correct though that once the battle started, Assad seems to have given up. He made few of any public pronouncements, didn’t show up publicly in Damascus far less the frontlines, nothing that a war leader is supposed to do publicly.

Why would Assad give up? Or was it a case of Russia & UAE convincing him to give up, as mentioned in the account above?

was it that Assad or Russians didn't have the stomach for a fight against Erdogan?

Or was there a more Chanakyan agenda?
Remember how Carter's NSA Zbigniew Brzezinski lured Moscow into invading Afghanistan, and used it to bleed them severely.
Now see Dugin's quote above.
Putin knows Judo - knows how to use an opponent's momentum against them. Did Putin feel that Turkey's move on Syria could be converted into a trap?

[Baikul]

Here is a good summary of the latest position on the ground




Below is an outline and analysis:

Grey is HTS, the ex- Al Quaeda boys, now ‘reformed Islamists’. Supported by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and UAE. This area has, at one estimate, around two thirds of the population of Syria. And of course the Capital Damascus.

The HTS will likely be the most important player in the new government. They are trying present a moderate face but are likely to go on a collision course with Israel in the near future.

Yellow is SNA, that’s entirely Turkey backed. Turkey has essentially replaced Iran as the single most important regional player in Syria, with influence over the two largest militias, HTS and SNA.

Light blue semi circle at the bottom is FSA, backed by the USA with an active military presence. This zone is basically how the US counterweight to the earlier Russian presence.

The FSA’s role has been as a ‘leader of the opposition’ was taken over by the HTS and the SNA, and at present its is a loose coalition of fighters, more an irritant than a potent force.

Purple is the SDF, Kurds, the only (or most) secular local militia in the region. The Kurds have long demanded a separate states. Backed by the USA and Israel. SDF is in direct conflict with Turkey which has its own Kurd militancy problem (the PKK).

Turkey fears that the SDF and PKK and SDF combined could be a powerful force for an independent Kurdish state. These aspirations, apart from the fact that it’s an oil rich area, make it a target for everyone.

[Baikul]

Why would Assad give up? Or was it a case of Russia & UAE convincing him to give up, as mentioned in the account above?

was it that Assad or Russians didn't have the stomach for a fight against Erdogan?

Or was there a more Chanakyan agenda?
Remember how Carter's NSA Zbigniew Brzezinski lured Moscow into invading Afghanistan, and used it to bleed them severely.
Now see Dugin's quote above.
Putin knows Judo - knows how to use an opponent's momentum against them. Did Putin feel that Turkey's move on Syria could be converted into a trap?

I personally don’t believe there was anything Chankian.

In my opinion Russia and Iran, one deep in the Ukraine war and the other on edge against Israel, were caught with their points down, calculated the costs of defending Syria, found that their man Assad had no capable military organisation or governance - and gave up.

Of course as often is the case in the region, the victors may end up regretting their win. Turkey is now the major regional player, but I suspect it will start to feel some pain as interference leads to more guerilla attacks at home.

[Baikul]

Meanwhile another noteworthy point.

Turkey and Israel are both striking targets of opportunity in Syria. Clearly these are operations designed to improve their positions, before the conflict ends and lines of the map solidify.

Turkey has conducted air strikes on the Kurds (SDF) in the north and east.

Israel has carried out over two hundred air strikes over Syria to entirely destroy military infrastructure, arms caches, weapons. This is a whole chapter in itself, and the intelligence available, speed of response and the ruthlessness of the Israelis has been something to see.

https://www.oneindia.com/videos/israeli ... 02812.html

Edit: here’s another source
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-832687

X sources are calling it the one of the largest attacks in the history of the Israeli AF.

[sanman]

Meanwhile another noteworthy point.

Turkey and Israel are both striking targets of opportunity in Syria. Clearly these are operations designed to improve their positions, before the conflict ends and lines of the map solidify.

Turkey has conducted air strikes on the Kurds (SDF) in the north and east.

Israel has carried out over two hundred air missions over Syria to entirely destroy military infrastructure, arms caches, weapons. This is a whole chapter in itself, and the intelligence available, speed of response and the ruthlessness of the Israelis has been something to see.

https://www.oneindia.com/videos/israeli ... 02812.html

US & Israel have put Turkey up to doing this. It's hard to imagine Saudis (especially MBS) colluding with Turkey. Saudis want to contain Iran, to be sure, but they'll also want to keep Turkey at arm's length.

With Syria now out of the way, Israel can now focus on its main opponent, Iran.
Watch how much bootlicking Iran will start doing towards India.

[Baikul]

US & Israel have put Turkey up to doing this. It's hard to imagine Saudis (especially MBS) colluding with Turkey. Saudis want to contain Iran, to be sure, but they'll also want to keep Turkey at arm's length.

With Syria now out of the way, Israel can now focus on its main opponent, Iran.
Watch how much bootlicking Iran will start doing towards India.

I don’t think that US /Israel are encouraging Turkey to attack their own asset, the Kurdish SDF. Which is what Turkey is doing and I think it’s playing a lone hand in this case.

I agree with you totally that Iran will start reaching out much more ‘fervently’ to India. Good point.

[Cyrano]

If Russia has pulled out Assad and it's own troops, vacated bases and ports to cut losses in Syria, then they have treated the headache for now.

Doesn't this let Russia focus on Ukraine 100% now?

Israel, US, Turkey, Iran and the rest of Syria's neighbours can only get busy hopping around the snake pit they have opened up, which also can fester for years...

US DS is lighting all the fires it can before Trump comes in. There doesn't seem to be any strategy here.

[sanman]

I don’t think that US /Israel are encouraging Turkey to attack their own asset, the Kurdish SDF. Which is what Turkey is doing and I think it’s playing a lone hand in this case.

Turkey's long been fighting the Kurds, there's nothing US can do to stop that. If you remember, Trump even sold out the Kurds, reneging on commitments given to them, which is what triggered Mattis' resignation (that guy had more integrity than most, I'll give him that)

There's no way Turkey could play a lone hand against both Russia & Iran. There has to be a bigger hand backing them. Again, I see the frantic hand of the outgoing Biden admin, which is anxious to complete all sorts of items before it leaves power.
Destroying Syria and shattering the Iranian supply line to Lebanon would do a lot to make Israel safer from its current predicament.

I agree with you totally that Iran will start reaching out much more ‘fervently’ to India. Good point.

Yep, they certainly will, now that they're on the back foot. I got that from General P R Shankar.

Iranians must be in a state of Shock & Awe right now, after what's just happened.

With Iran's influence cut down to size, India will now see the way cleared for IMEC, which should make New Delhi quite happy.

[sanman]

Here's Erdogan's latest comment that only he and Putin are real leaders

(maybe he's trying to flatter Vlad, hoping not to p!ss him off too much)

[sanman]

Israeli bombing of Syria

[drnayar]

Watch this interesting interview with a Syria-watcher, which I found rather eye-opening:

[youtube]tx5SJBTkDsw[youtube]

sanman ji,


Russia was busy with UKR,

eyeraan was tied down

israel needed asad out because they needed more control for a buffer zone beyond the golan heights and asad was under the protection of both eyeraan and russia so the chefs couldn't touch him until now ...

the amrikis started this project way back with the arab spring

the chefs at the culinary institute finally had all the ingredients that they needed for the recipe

So, they baked a christmas cake.

They had already started a project for India s north east ... ot anyway

[sanman]

Here's someone else saying what I just said:

[Baikul]

It’s incredible how Israel’s air strikes have wiped out Syria’s military infrastructure - army, navy and airforce. Perhaps the largest air bombing mission in recent history.

I’m talking end to end, literally billions of dollars gone.

Warehouses, ammunition depots, suspected chemical weapon sites, armoured formations, research centres.

It has taken out entire aircraft squadrons, radars, military signalling stations.

It has destroyed a large part of, if not the entire, the Syrian navy.

This link shows OSA-II class missile boats destroyed off Latakia port.

https://x.com/CovertShores/status/1866456501415797189

[drnayar]

It’s incredible how Israel’s air strikes have wiped out Syria’s military infrastructure - army, navy and airforce. Perhaps the largest air bombing mission in recent history.

I’m talking end to end, literally billions of dollars gone.

Warehouses, ammunition depots, suspected chemical weapon sites, armoured formations, research centres.

It has taken out entire aircraft squadrons, radars, military signalling stations.

It has destroyed a large part of, if not the entire, the Syrian navy.

This link shows OSA-II class missile boats destroyed off Latakia port.

https://x.com/CovertShores/status/1866456501415797189

[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Geb8S6RXgAA ... me=900x900[/img

point is whoever comes after Assad will end up with severely degraded military infrastructure. !!.. lessons from Afghanistan ?