Amber G. wrote:disha wrote:[
Definitely. In past hour, 2 people did die in India due to road accidents.
So why the panic on Coronavirus?
Short, clear answer - exponential growth.
One of nice example, I have given all the time, is a recent tweet by Chess Champion Kasparov.
1. Kasparov is a racist.
2. The chess example is from Indian mathematics and was elucidated (not euclidiated) c400 AD
3. In terms of rice grains: @400 Giga metric tonnes is a lot of rice. I think it will take @1million years for the entire world to produce that much rice.
Your point is that the number of cases will continue at geometric progression till it consumes the entire world and we will be doomed. Of course virus will jump interspecies and also infect the inner solar system first of martians, the venusians, then the mercurians. Later it will reach out to saturnians and beyond and stop only at uranasians.
Problem with that scheme is the same with other diseases, like HIV. There is no HIV vaccine. And HIV has not consumed the rest of world. Of course Wuhan virus is more communicable than HIV and maybe as easy as Rhinovirus. In effect, it will run its course of easily infected persons faster and its rate of infection will fall <1. Sudarshan'ji also pointed out the same thing.
However I am sure that the uranasians will soon be infected with coronavirus in a matter of months. Since your graphs and slides say so.
Problem with tossing around numbers like 1/5th of humanity will be infected in <n> days etc. is that it does create scaremongering since the underlying assumptions are very nuanced and generally goes unchallenged.
One of your concerns was that test kits are not available and everybody must have an equal opportunity for test kits. I provided the livelock problem scenario and another poster pointed out that sending people to test centers will unnecessarily expose them to actual infection!
Having said that, if we do not call it Wuhan Virus, at least call it DaronaVirus (Scary Virus). (changing gears)
sohamn wrote:Furthermore, it's in our nature to care for the elderly. So while panic doesn't help in any situation, being concerned, informed and watchful might help overcome the situation.
Of course., Concerned, informed and watchful is the eternal requirement. Whether it is WuhanVirus, DaronaVirus or Nipah. However, not panicking is not the same as uncaring for elders.
Suraj wrote:The transmission curve. That is central to it from a public policymaking perspective. It's important to ensure social separation in order to flatten the curve, because we have no immunity or treatment for it, and a high transmission rate and level of virulence generates a far greater number of people needing hospitalized care, which the system cannot cope with.
It's not scary - it's that people are doing things that are contrary to clear common sense rationale in this situation by behaving ignorantly or outright recklessly.
Thanks for cogently pointing out the above.Without unnecessary panic and rational observation.
Here is my thought exercise:
1. There is no clarity about the R0 on WuhanVirus. Is it 2 or is it 4?
2. There is no clarity on the CFR. Is it 3% or 5%? Based on indications from Italy/China we can assume it is @3.5%
Given the above, how long will social distancing help? Yes, there is talk about flattening the transmission curve. However, that is not universal within a country, state, county, city or a settlement! The graphs and slides with numbers look nice. People quoting chess champions look smart. Still, it does not give anyone any clue on how the transmission curve will behave in say California vs. Texas. In SF vs LA? In N. Calif vs. S. California? In Seattle vs. Washington DC.
Instead of specific guidelines, one has panic-driven general mumbo-jumbo on how many sick will there be and how with quarantine we will all survive by 'flattening' the transmission curve and not overwhelm the health-care system. What we get is panic-driven 'sky is falling' messages and scaremongering on how this or that administration is clueless.
And how S. Korea is the land of the brave and smart and how China saved the world! To put it in perspective, S. Korea is just 25% larger in population than California. What stopped from state governors of Washington or California to start building test kits? Why the governor of California never woke up to the possibility that contagion is a direct flight away to SFO or LAX? Heck, the movie Contagion was made in LA, CA!
Here is what I understand:
1. "Flattening' the transmission curve is just one tool in the belt. A rusty hammer. A lot depends on public behavior after 1 or 2 or 3 days of quarantine. There is no guarantee that the desired outcome of flattening the transmission curve is achievable. Since several factors are at play here.
2. There is a dearth of health care professionals. Not many nursing assistants, doctors etc.
3. The health care facility is not geared to handle such heavy loads.
So what are the alternatives?
1. Why cannot indoor and outdoor stadiums be converted into first and second level health care facilities?
2. Why not empty parking buildings be converted to triage facilities?
3. Why not extra tents be procured from all over the state and country to start setting up health care facilities now?
4. Why not start moving health care professionals? Start sensitizing the private insurance industry?
Problem is, whenever we do dhoti shiver and sky is falling scenarios, we tend to not focus on the outcomes.
If I were given a proposition that 1 Million will die and 50 million infected, my first ask will be - how will I save those 49 million other than shipping them off to an island? Or creating a panic?
Instead what I get is, sign this petition or that petition and how come the VP did not advise if seniors should travel or not! Is this what we have been reduced to?