ramana wrote: ↑14 Dec 2024 06:53
Baikul, Thanks for keeping track of the Syria story.
Do we now know who controls which portion of Syria?
My opinion, Assad's Syria was a paper lion backed by Russia and Iran.
When the terrorist groups got support from US, Israel, and Russia and Iran cut their losses, it was bound to fall.
Israel is taking steps to protect its security.
It’s a fast moving situation, but this is a good representation of the situation at present.
Below is my write up and whatever understanding I have of the situation. Apologies for all the acronyms!
HTS (in grey) North to South : Led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani (a nom de guerre) real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa. The Sunni HTS spearheaded the drive into Syria and is the public face of the stunning victory over Assad.
The area under its control may appear to be comparatively small, but in reality an approximate 60 percent of the population, three or four of Syria’s largest cities including the capital Damascus lie under HTS control.
Funded by Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
It will be the dominant partner in any governing regime. It has already appointed a Prime Minister and cabinet.
Jolani is old Al Qaeda who broke from the organisation now trying to portray himself as a ‘reasonable Islamist’. Whatever the skepticism about reformed Islamists, he is very media savvy, makes the right noises.
And whatever the real reasons for the stunning victory, HTS has undeniably conducted itself as something more than a terrorist outfit - its org structure with a civilian governing body, claims to institution building, and reaching out to minority groups are not the norm for a jihadi outfit.
I think that’s what makes it very dangerous - because ultimately it is an Islamist group with an Islamist worldview. Just as dangerous, its success is evoking admiration and will studied by hard line Sunni outfits across the globe.
The HTS’ major weakness is that it does not have access to the (realistically the only) major Syrian revenue source, the oil fields, which leads us to:
The SDF (in purple) East - North East: the military wing of the Kurdish YPG. Marxist / secular in outlook, it is supported by USA and Israel who find a natural partnership.
The level of USA/Israeli support is however questionable, as the Kurds have typically been sacrificed at the altar of international politics a few times. And with Trump, who knows .
The SDF control most of the oil fields east of the Euphrates and hence are a natural target for everyone.
In particular they are hated by the Turks who fear the Syrian Kurds in the south will combine with the rebel Turkish Kurds in the north and carve out a separate nation.
The Sunni HTS is ok talking to Kurds for a compromise. But the SDF has been attacked and pushed back by also Sunni Turkish proxies (supported by the Turkish Air Force) in the past few days.
And that’s takes us to:
The SNA (in light yellow) North: the Sunni SNA is Turkey’s mailed fist in Syria, fully funded and fully armed by Erdogan’s lot.
Turkey is using the SNA for combating the Kurds in Syria and extending its control to replace Iran and Russia as the local power. And also to continue to play a dominant role in Syrian politics.
The SNA is currently involved in fighting the Kurds at the behest of Turkey.
Latakia to Tartus - The new political minority-Alewites/ Shia/ Twelvers, West/ Coastal: The ‘diagonal lines’ area to the left of the HTS, between Latakia and Tartus is interesting in that it is the ‘home’ of Syrian Shias and Assad in particular. This is where he was intrinsically the strongest. It also has the Russian bases in Latakia and Tartus.
Its status is unclear in that the Shia domination (in the countryside, in the towns the Sunnis are apparently equal in number) makes HTS tread more carefully. Plus Russia is negotiating to keep its bases.
I think intimately it will revert to HTS control, sort of an uneasy peace.
USA / FSA Light blue semi circle, South: the Al Fanf deconfliction zone, basically the USA’s parking lot/ observatory in the region. With the Syrian FSA group; today the FSA is likely a rag tag group of militias, and I doubt if even they know what they are from day to day.
Unclear (Yellow), South: Other rebels, unclear who they are. Probably also has elements of FSA / Sunni/ Druze elements.
That last little blue near Golan Heights, South West: is Israel’s latest incursion into Syria to create a buffer zone (included Mt Hermon) which it says is ‘temporary’.
The rest of the territory in the middle (also demarcated by diagonal lines): is loosely empty landscapes with connecting roads. And supposedly ISIS running around.
I’ve already rambled on quite a bit. In short, the main options are
1. HTS and SNA combine to take over most everything into a single centrally run state
2. A looser federation of provinces
There are many other permutations and combinations. I won’t go there because this is already a lot of text!
Hope this helps. Sorry for the long ramble
