We've reached the tipping point…
A seismic shift is occurring in the workforce. Globally, several decades of declining birth rates are catching up with us. For the first time in modern history, the number of jobs created could begin to outstrip the number of people who desire to participate in the workforce - creating not just a temporary imbalance for a year or two, but a sustained, systemic scarcity of skilled workers for the decades to come. By the end of this decade, most corporations will begin to experience a talent shortage.
“In the developed countries, the dominant factor in the next society will be something to
which most people are only beginning to pay attention: the rapid growth in the older
population and the rapid shrinking of the younger generation.” - Peter F. Drucker
The impending workforce crisis is the outcome of three relentless facts: the sheer size of the
baby boom (eighty million plus), increasing longevity (life expectancy heading into the 80s), and
a declining birth rate (below replacement). The inescapable projection is a rapidly-aging
population and workforce. But this is not only a crisis. Properly considered and framed, this
problem is a great opportunity for business to benefit from the talents of the older worker. The
question is how quickly management will be able to retool its operating assumptions in order to
take stock and take advantage of these cultural issues for the benefit of business.
A future-vision orientation to these problems and opportunities means understanding where the
workforce is now, what’s happening to it, where it’s heading, and what this means for strategy.
This is more than trouble-shooting – it is preparing to take advantage of the age wave already
well underway. Making the most of a world where the median age is 40 (and rising) means in
effect creating a new world of work. The opportunities offered are many, but they require a
rethinking of assumptions: both about the terms of employment and the mature employee.
A third of the population—those over 50, and the fastest-growing —are discovering that they
have (if they want it) a second working life ahead of them. This is because so many will spend
just as many years “unretired”--post-career--as they did on the job. In this latest foresighted
study, the facts of an aging society are focused on issues of human potential. These include the
economy, the brain drain, ethnic and gender diversity, skill and education shortages, and a
general tightening of the talent supply. The impact of this age revolution will be wide-ranging as
it drives social policy, lifestyle, health, and relationships. These will all have their effects at work,
or in the “ergosphere”—my term for the dispersed time- and-space universe that defines the
new workplace.
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http://www.thefutureofwork.net/assets/R ... Crisis.pdf