shiv wrote:
Dhiman I am not going to criticize you from saying this but you are saying nothing new. It is a repeat of all the "dhoti shivering" statements that one hears time and again - summed up by various statements like:
"We don't feel confidence"
"We would like to see moves that instil confidence'
"We are afraid that people are asleep on the job"
Shiv Sir, I think bhraspatiji's above posts regarding the validity of dhoti shivering have summarized by own views quite well, so not much for me to add here except to repeat that the onus is on GoI to constructively address any general dhoti shivering with respect to security issues.
That is why I asked the question: Do you think India will be defeated by China in a war if starts tomorrow?
I can only assume that by "war" you mean a full-scale non-nuclear conflict. In this case, I see the war starting out by Chinese making, what is intended to be, a short-surgical ground push for Tawang and scoring initial wins. Within a week of this high-intensity low firepower conflict, Indian forces in Tawang are ready to get run over. The conflict is expensive in terms of lives lost on both Chinese and Indian side (my guess is 1000 within a week). Images of 1962 style fiasco come back to haunt both public and government and anger within India rises exponentially. This is where a full-scale conflict starts from the Indian side, by GoI pressing missiles and IAF to target Chinese supply lines and Navy to blockade Chinese trade in IOR. As a result of this Navy blockade, stock markets across the world collapse and an already fragile global economy starts to unwind further.
After a few days or targeting Chinese supply lines, Indian army makes another ground push for Tawang and appears to be gaining ground against Chinese forces with strained supply lines. Another 1,000 lives are lost now. CCP now sensing defeat, starts targeting Indian supply lines and opens up multiple fronts.
Full scale conflict rages for several weeks with combined death toll approaching 50,000, long Chinese supply lines across Tibet in complete disarray, Indian supply lines in border areas facing strain, and global economy going into an irrecoverable crash as a result of Indian Navy starting to visibly sink Chinese shipping. Common Tibetans start to die from hunger by thousands as all food and resources are directed to Chinese troops.
Ultimately at the back of better supply lines, Indian army makes ground push in Tibet and is able to advance and hold upto 50km of Tibet in parallel with Indian border. Public and Tibetian pressure won't let GoI withdraw while as CCP face savers won't call for or accept ceasefire. After all the big weapons have been exhausted, the conflict continues in a low intensity phase for years.
The final result is that Global economy is completely wreaked for the short term. In the long term, China has learned to pay exorbitant costs to ship oil from middle-east to China via Atlantic and pacific oceans, the world has learned to locally manufacture goods (which leads to an economic boom in western world), and India and China have both gone back to the days of zero or negative economic growth. No end to low intensity low firepower fighting in sight with the only consolation from the Indian side being that the fighting zone is on the Chinese side - in 50 km wide zone in Tibet along the Indian border.