AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

[Yagnasri]

All most all the parties/people except congress leaders were very critical of the process etc even in GOM meeting and to have told in their face. One of the possible damages is the lift irrigation projects under Jalayagnam of YSR. In Telangana huge amount of power is needed to lift watr. With cost increasing regularly how far this process is viable I am not sure. But there is no way to stop these projects. It will be political suicide. People like KCR are saying new tech will be found etc.How far agri on lift irrigation is sustainable even at todays power cost? any gurus?

[Hari Seldon]

4.00 pm: Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde says bill on Telangana will be brought in the winter session of Parliament.

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/indi ... 24667.html

[RajeshA]

Continuing the Lok Sabha strength of Congress for passing Telangana Bill

nageshks ji,

you had given your estimate of the strength of UPA for Telangana Bill

We can't take the same strength for the parties as in 2009. 15th Lok Sabha composition has changed due to bye-elections, etc.

Congress has for example 203 MPs and not 206 MPs anymore. e.g. in 2012 Congress lost 1 LS seat in Uttarkhand - Tehri, and this year 2 LS seats in Gujarat - Porbandar and Banaskantha.

Also BSP has 20 MPs and not 21 MPs.

Altogether one can put UPA's strength at 269.
Congress - 203
BSP - 20
JDU - 19
TRS - 4
NCP - 9
RJD - 3
RLD - 3
NC - 3
JMM - 2
IUML - 2
KC - 1
AUDF - 1
AIMIM - 1
BVA - 1
Swabhimani Paksha - 1

That makes 273 party-wise. Add the 7 independents and we get 280. I don't think JD(S), SDF, NPF, BPF would be supporting UPA on this. They would be thinking about moving on to NDA.

From 280 we can subtract the rebels
- 1 BSP, 2 JDU, 2 Congress, so we get 275

From 275 if 17 out of 19 Seemandhra MPs were to vote against the Telangana Bill, Congress is left with 258 MPs, and that too if JD-U votes in favor of Telangana, which may not happen if Sharad Yadav decides against it.

So the chances of Telangana Bill passing are not that high. Chandrababu Naidu should not burn his bridges to Left Front just yet.

[Shanmukh]

Continuing the Lok Sabha strength of Congress for passing Telangana Bill

nageshks ji,

you had given your estimate of the strength of UPA for Telangana Bill

We can't take the same strength for the parties as in 2009. 15th Lok Sabha composition has changed due to bye-elections, etc.

RajeshA-ji,
I took my numbers from the official source, the Lok Sabha website. And they aver that the Congress has 206 MPs. See here

http://164.100.47.132/LssNew/Members/partywiselist.aspx

Congress has for example 203 MPs and not 206 MPs anymore. This year e.g. Congress lost 2 LS seats in Gujarat - Porbandar and Banaskantha.

Also BSP has 20 MPs and not 21 MPs.

Altogether one can put UPA's strength at 269.
Congress - 203
BSP - 20
JDU - 19
TRS - 4
NCP - 9
RJD - 3
RLD - 3
NC - 3
JMM - 2
IUML - 2
KC - 1
AUDF - 1
AIMIM - 1
BVA - 1
Swabhimani Paksha - 1

That makes 273 party-wise. Add the 7 independents and we get 280. I don't think JD(S), SDF, NPF, BPF would be supporting UPA on this. They would be thinking about moving on to NDA.

From 280 we can subtract the rebels
- 1 BSP, 2 JDU, 2 Congress, so we get 275

From 275 if 17 out of 19 Seemandhra MPs were to vote against the Telangana Bill, Congress is left with 258 MPs, and that too if JD-U votes in favor of Telangana, which may not happen if Sharad Yadav decides against it.

So the chances of Telangana Bill passing are not that high. Chandrababu Naidu should not burn his bridges to Left Front just yet.

Even accepting your figures, there is another point, I think, you need to factor. The behaviour of the two TDP MPs from Telangana, viz, Ramesh Rathore from Adilabad, and Nama Nageswara Rao from Khammam. Ramesh Rathod is rather a hardliner on Telangana. He may vote for the Telangana Bill. I am not sure about the sympathies of Nama Nageswara Rao, though. Welcome comment from our informed Andhra watchers.

JD(S) - I think we can expect them to vote against the Bill - they are opposed to the Congress. Bwiswamuthiary of the BPF is a toss up. The Congress, I am told, has a lot of hold on him. What he will do is a bit tricky to predict.

[RajeshA]

Even accepting your figures, there is another point, I think, you need to factor. The behaviour of the two TDP MPs from Telangana, viz, Ramesh Rathore from Adilabad, and Nama Nageswara Rao from Khammam. Ramesh Rathod is rather a hardliner on Telangana. He may vote for the Telangana Bill. I am not sure about the sympathies of Nama Nageswara Rao, though. Welcome comment from our informed Andhra watchers.

Thanks nageshks ji.

That means UPA gets 260 MPs in favor of Telangana. Also it is not necessary that all 7 independents vote with Congress in spite of the inducements. A couple may not ally.

It is possible that BJP would let CBN take the lead on issue of Telangana, which could allow many more parties like Left Front and others to join in opposing the bill.

[syele]

There are ways to make lift-irrigation affordable. When the governments realize the true potential of Telangana region, these investments will be profitable.

Key sections of coastal regions - East, West Godawari and Krishna districts, already moved into Aqua culture.

One can cultivate rice 2-3 crops in coastal districts (4 districts only). In Telangana the farmers can have one rice crop and 2-3 vegetable crops. Telangana farmers within 200KM radius of Hyderabad can get better incomes with mixed farming than rice cultivators in Coastal districts.

[Vayutuvan]

Pulses peanuts Makkalu Jonnalu are grown in T already.

[Shanmukh]

Even accepting your figures, there is another point, I think, you need to factor. The behaviour of the two TDP MPs from Telangana, viz, Ramesh Rathore from Adilabad, and Nama Nageswara Rao from Khammam. Ramesh Rathod is rather a hardliner on Telangana. He may vote for the Telangana Bill. I am not sure about the sympathies of Nama Nageswara Rao, though. Welcome comment from our informed Andhra watchers.

Thanks nageshks ji.

That means UPA gets 260 MPs in favor of Telangana. Also it is not necessary that all 7 independents vote with Congress in spite of the inducements. A couple may not ally.

It is possible that BJP would let CBN take the lead on issue of Telangana, which could allow many more parties like Left Front and others to join in opposing the bill.

A few more thoughts about the numbers game. Meira Kumar had rejected the resignation of 13 SeemaAndhra MPs (10 from Congress, 3 from others).

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 36959.aspx

It is quite possible, if the numbers game were to turn dicey, Meira Kumar might accept their resignations. That would, in one stroke, remove 13 MPs from SeemaAndhra from the voting list. The Congress tally would come down to 262, but opposition tally would also come down by 3.

We have been counting on the CPI to oppose the Bill in the numbers game (they have 4 MPs). The CPI stand, is currently like the BJP stand. They are in favour of Telangana, but have not spelt out if they will for sure support or oppose the Bill.

http://www.siasat.com/english/news/cpi- ... -districts

Finally, the biggest question mark is the SP. Will they, under any circumstances support the bifurcation of Telangana? Is there anything the Congress can do, if it wants the SP support?

[Dasari]

All this speculation about BJP voting against T is nonsense. Congress will create a very deceptive bill in such a way that either BJP or TDP cannot reject. Most of what T congress leaders are asking will be given to T and in return they promise huge package (there is nothing new for congress to do fake promises) , very close to 6 lakh crores ruppes for SA just like what CBN asked. BJP and TDP knows that it is impossible to meet even a small fraction of it, but publicly cannot reject it because they cannot prove that it is fake until it turned out to be fake.

Even the chances of passing the bill in Assembly are lot better than what is projected. There is lot of ground work done and it is almost certain the new states will be formed before Dec 20 unless SC gives a stay.

[RajeshA]

nageshks ji,

I think it would further depend on other factors

1) How the State Assembly elections go
2) How the Samaikyandhra Movement in Seemandhra evolves and what traction it gets in the media
3) Opposition from Kiran Kumar Reddy and how the Bill is handled in the AP Assembly

Seemandhra people would simply have to threaten politicos like MSY, Mayawati and Nitish Kumar, that in the future they could not expect any support in their PM ambitions from Seemandhra MPs and in fact they would have to deal with active opposition from Seemandhra MPs.

If SP, DMK, BJD or Left Front change their stance, then it is pretty much given that Telangana Bill would pass.

[ShyamSP]

You may find this interesting, in particular, chapter 4 and 5.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/34125572/Indi ... apitalists

Although, chapter 4 heading says Kammas, Reddys, Rajus, it covered mostly Kammas. Interesting thing is their (called Kammavar Nadiu) success in Tamil nadu, independent of success in AP, which is also covered in chapter 5.

Kammas and Reddys got unique advantage of holding lands when traditional "kshtriyas" such as Rajus and Velamas have been reduced in power. In addition they re-invented themselves from being agrarian community to move into industrial and service sectors. Advantage they got is less likely to go down.

Now Princeton is awarding PhDs for studies on Kammas. This is thesis presentation by one student.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vBvExh7-QY

This is very very recent so I still haven't watched completely

[Lilo]

Now Princeton is awarding PhDs for studies on Kammas. This is thesis presentation by one student.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vBvExh7-QY

This is very very recent so I still haven't watched completely

New and updated insights to cleave heathens from one another is always welcome to the West.

[RajeshA]

BJPs policy on bifurcation should be simple - first build new administrative and commercial capital city for Seemandhra, and then Telangana can go its separate way, if it wishes.

[ShyamSP]

All this speculation about BJP voting against T is nonsense. Congress will create a very deceptive bill in such a way that either BJP or TDP cannot reject. Most of what T congress leaders are asking will be given to T and in return they promise huge package (there is nothing new for congress to do fake promises) , very close to 6 lakh crores ruppes for SA just like what CBN asked. BJP and TDP knows that it is impossible to meet even a small fraction of it, but publicly cannot reject it because they cannot prove that it is fake until it turned out to be fake.

Even the chances of passing the bill in Assembly are lot better than what is projected. There is lot of ground work done and it is almost certain the new states will be formed before Dec 20 unless SC gives a stay.

There is some discussions on Media by politicians that Center could not give promised money and projects to the newly formed states Chattisgarh and Jarkhand. There is already precedence to prove. They have to come up with more concrete than empty promise.

nageshks ji,

I think it would further depend on other factors

1) How the State Assembly elections go
2) How the Samaikyandhra Movement in Seemandhra evolves and what traction it gets in the media
3) Opposition from Kiran Kumar Reddy and how the Bill is handled in the AP Assembly

Seemandhra people would simply have to threaten politicos like MSY, Mayawati and Nitish Kumar, that in the future they could not expect any support in their PM ambitions from Seemandhra MPs and in fact they would have to deal with active opposition from Seemandhra MPs.

If SP, DMK, BJD or Left Front change their stance, then it is pretty much given that Telangana Bill would pass.

No need to threaten MSY. He is already supportive to United AP and TDP. He is friends with TDP because Yadavs occupy dominant position after Kammas in TDP (for example, Talasani Srinivas Yadav who is head of Hyderabad TDP and Yanamala Ramakrishnudu who is in almost top position and proponent of United AP)

DMK and AIADMK will have to support United AP. One, Tamilnadu Telugus are United AP proponents and two, they lose Krishna drinking water if they support split.

[Shanmukh]

No need to threaten MSY. He is already supportive to United AP and TDP. He is friends with TDP because Yadavs occupy dominant position after Kammas in TDP (for example, Talasani Srinivas Yadav who is head of Hyderabad TDP and Yanamala Ramakrishnudu who is in almost top position and proponent of United AP)

DMK and AIADMK will have to support United AP. One, Tamilnadu Telugus are United AP proponents and two, they lose Krishna drinking water if they support split.

The BJP should go ahead only after confirming its numbers. This holds true even for CBN, by the way. It is not only vital for the people of SeemaAndhra, but is also becoming a prestige issue for both sides now. Handing Congress a victory on Telangana is not in the interest of anyone, and if the Congress can form Telangana inspite of the opposition of the others, it will be a huge boost for them, and a big blow for both TDP and BJP. Last thing anyone will want to do is hand the Congress a victory of the nuclear deal type, and that too, at the last part of their term.

[Shanmukh]

Now, this is something I never thought about even. The NTV is claiming that the TRS plans to ally with, or even, merge with the BJP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8H62Bf59YE

Not sure how much credence to put on this.

[RajeshA]

Now, this is something I never thought about even. The NTV is claiming that the TRS plans to ally with, or even, merge with the BJP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8H62Bf59YE

Not sure how much credence to put on this.

1) Either this is K. Chandrashekhar Rao doing belly dance in front of Modi to keep latter's interest in Telangana active. If KCR is giving such hints, then it must mean that the LS balance in favor of Telangana may not be that good.

2) Or KCR is trying to resist INC doing Love Jihad on it, viz kidnapping TRS and merging it with INC. KCR may want INC to lose interest in Telangana thinking that TRS+BJP could spoil INC's party in Telangana. And if TRS aligns with BJP or merges with it, it helps KCR retain some modicum of authority. In BJP it is possible, in INC not.

[ShyamSP]

Now, this is something I never thought about even. The NTV is claiming that the TRS plans to ally with, or even, merge with the BJP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8H62Bf59YE

Not sure how much credence to put on this.

1) Either this is K. Chandrashekhar Rao doing belly dance in front of Modi to keep latter's interest in Telangana active. If KCR is giving such hints, then it must mean that the LS balance in favor of Telangana may not be that good.

2) Or KCR is trying to resist INC doing Love Jihad on it, viz kidnapping TRS and merging it with INC. KCR may want INC to lose interest in Telangana thinking that TRS+BJP could spoil INC's party in Telangana. And if TRS aligns with BJP or merges with it, it helps KCR retain some modicum of authority. In BJP it is possible, in INC not.

TRS is made up of, besides KCR's friends and family, elements migrated from TDP, INC, BJP. It is important to keep flock together both in the interests of TRS and Congress. Velamas * may stay in TRS but others (Reddys, BCs, SCs) are not guaranteed. Congress wants to push as much as it can so T people vote for them. Beyond that it doesn't want to give T. Even in case of failure to split, it doesn't want to be blamed fully. If TRS merges with INC now, every one is free to move back to their mother-ships. Window of time INC wants to give to "merger"/alliance and elections should be narrow as migrations from TRS will have no impact on elections.

* Chennamaneni faction (BJP's ex-union minister) may want to pull them to BJP so tug-of-war is there between those that want to go with INC and those that want to go with BJP. Reddys want to go back to INC (We have some example of Velamas vs Reddy fights recently for dominance on T-issue).

[Shanmukh]

TRS is made up of, besides KCR's friends and family, elements migrated from TDP, INC, BJP. It is important to keep flock together both in the interests of TRS and Congress. Velamas * may stay in TRS but others (Reddys, BCs, SCs) are not guaranteed. Congress wants to push as much as it can so T people vote for them. Beyond that it doesn't want to give T. Even in case of failure to split, it doesn't want to be blamed fully. If TRS merges with INC now, every one is free to move back to their mother-ships. Window of time INC wants to give to "merger"/alliance and elections should be narrow as migrations from TRS will have no impact on elections.

I am not sure how the Congress plans to accomplish that. If it fails to put the Bill through in the Winter session, it is mostly game over for the Congress. The Budget session is going to be starting in the middle of February (at best) and I am not sure what the Congress can hope to accomplish in that time, since it is too close to the election. The EC code of conduct for the elections may even come into force by then. Basically, if by middle of January (Winter session can be extended by about a couple of weeks, I guess), Telangana is not in place, it is game over for the Congress.

* Chennamaneni faction (BJP's ex-union minister) may want to pull them to BJP so tug-of-war is there as to who want to go with INC and who wants to go with BJP. Reddys want to go back to INC (We have some example of Velamas vs Reddy fights recently for dominance on T-issue).

Some of the old TRS people have already come back to BJP. Ale Narendra (former MP from Medak) is back with the BJP, and last I heard, the BJP was ardently wooing Vijayashanthi. If the Congress fails to get Telangana, will the Congress (or even TRS, for that matter) have any credibility left? And would Reddys want to go back to Congress then?

[RajeshA]

ShyamSP ji,

thanks for the insight!

[ShyamSP]

I am not sure how the Congress plans to accomplish that. If it fails to put the Bill through in the Winter session, it is mostly game over for the Congress. The Budget session is going to be starting in the middle of February (at best) and I am not sure what the Congress can hope to accomplish in that time, since it is too close to the election. The EC code of conduct for the elections may even come into force by then. Basically, if by middle of January (Winter session can be extended by about a couple of weeks, I guess), Telangana is not in place, it is game over for the Congress.

Seemandhra leaders INC or TDP had hope that Central Congress doesn't do brinkmanship politics until INC made announcement. Now they are left with Samson option. Congress pushing as much as it can to fail at last moment can't be ruled out. Seemaandhra non-YSR Congress wants to split Congress votebank between YSRC and INC so TDP benefits. INC MP Lagadapati like leaders so far were calm on YSRC but recently are making all noises in front of people that INC got deal with YSRC to win Seemandhra before they announced CWC decision. The more they push that to people, less votes for YSRC. The more INC pushes T means total failure in Seemandhra for both INC and YSRC.

INC tactic is, "we announced it is government failure to not bring bill at right time to be passed."

Some of the old TRS people have already come back to BJP. Ale Narendra (former MP from Medak) is back with the BJP, and last I heard, the BJP was ardently wooing Vijayashanthi. If the Congress fails to get Telangana, will the Congress (or even TRS, for that matter) have any credibility left? And would Reddys want to go back to Congress then?

For Congress it already did its duty that CWC announced T and did victory rallies in T. Government, GOM, etc failures on bill is not their fault. If TRS deviates from the script, CBI is already there on cases like money laundering, goondaism, extortion, Crimes against Dalits, etc on which KCR, his son KTR, his nephew Harish Rao (top 3 leaders) can be immediately booked.

[ramana]

View from Pioneer.

Truly dilli billis dont see things the way they are!

Congress caught in Telangana Tangle

Congress caught in Telangana tangle
Friday, 15 November 2013 |

Kalyani Shankar |

The Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister’s refusal to toe the party high command’s line on the contentious issue has worsened matters

The UPA Government is planning to introduce in Parliament on December 9 (Ms Sonia Gandhi’s birthday) the controversial Telangana Bill to bifurcate Andhra Pradesh. It was on Ms Gandhi’s directions that the schedule has been drawn up by Congress bigwigs. Also, on the directions of Ms Gandhi, the Group of Ministers on Telangana is expected to finalise the Bill by November 18, send it to the Union Cabinet and then to the President by November 21. The President may send it to the Andhra Pradesh Assembly where Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy has been asked to convene the legislative on November 25 to consider the Bill.

This may not be the end of the Telangana tangle. The process has not been smooth since there is a split in almost all the political parties in the State, including the Congress. But the most alarming is the opposition from Chief Minister Reddy, who is becoming a problem rather than a solution. He has resisted the Centre’s pressure to fall in line.

It is not often that the Congress high command faces such behaviour from one of its Chief Ministers, that too a light-weight politician like Mr Reddy. Also, he was not a known rebel since he came from the Congress stable. He took office on November 24, 2010, from Mr Konijeti Rosaiah. Since then, it has been a bumpy ride for the young Chief Minister.

To the dismay of the party high command, Mr Reddy is now taking on the Centre on the bifurcation issue. In a strong letter addressed to President Pranab Mukherjee and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the Chief Minister recently expressed concern over the way decisions were being taken and the process of bifurcation being pushed through, ignoring all conventions and procedures.

The Congress leadership is not sure how to tackle the Chief Minister, who is bent on ruining its plans. Getting rid of Mr Reddy is not easy at this juncture. He has no intention of resigning and ha declared on a television show recently, “Quitting is not the solution here, we have to debate the issue. We have to convince the people of the State as to why it should be united.” Congress in-charge of the State Digvijaya Singh’s repeated pleas to the Chief Minister and the State president to persuade leaders to fall in line, have been in vain.

Mr Reddy has been blunt right from the beginning that he would not be a party to dividing the State. It is alleged that he is instigating the agitators in the the Seemandhra region. Mr Reddy is planning to get the draft Bill defeated when it comes to the Assembly, with the support of 179 Legislators from the Seemandhra region. He is confident that no Legislator will listen to the high command when the chances of their own re-election are in jeopardy. Though the Bill will be referred to the Assembly for eliciting its views, the Congress high command is mulling over whether to avoid voting. Mr Reddy, who wants to emerge as a martyr, may also resign on the floor of the House during the debate. He will then have two options — launch his own party or join the resurgent YSR Congress.

Meanwhile, the GoM has had another round of negotiations with all the political parties from the State, including the Congress, the BJP, the TRS, the CPI, the MIM and the CPI(M). They continue to have their differences. The GoM is determining the boundaries of the new State, judicial and statutory bodies, and other administrative units. It has also consulted water, finance, road transport and infrastructure departments in Andhra Pradesh to work out the division of assets once Telangana is created.

The draft Bill is likely to be on the basis of the Antony Committee report on Telangana. The report proposes a regulatory mechanism for water disputes, a special authority to supervise law and order, and also a law to prevent any legislative measure revoking existing land allotment. This is not palatable to the TRS leaders. Land, water, jobs and law and order are the four important issues for the TRS.

The TRS wants the Krishna water award kept in abeyance. It also has reservations about the Polavaram project. The burden of the whole song is the status of Hyderabad. The TRS is against diluting the powers of the new State. The Congress’s hope that the TRS will merge with it, may not realise. Still the party has to keep the TRS on its right side. Else, its calculations will go awry.

Eventhough she writes for Pioneer the tone is that of dilli billi who is outraged that a mere CM has defied a dictat from dilli even if its from the another political party. The language she uses is that of how dare the CM defy the party cheif's unjust dictat! She doesnt seem to think the CM has his own interests of his support group to cater to. She appears to think he exists because Sonia Gandhi says he does.

[syele]

Kiran Kumar Reddy is not a old politician like Rosiah to go into retirement to facilitate high command diktats.

[ramana]

Rosiah told my friend when he went to congratulate him on becoming the CM, "they wont allow you to rule" And it turned prophetic.

[RajeshA]

Continuing the Lok Sabha strength of Congress for passing Telangana Bill

Setback for Congress. RajeshA-ji, you can remove one more from the Congress in your numbers game.

Hoshangabad MP joins BJP.

http://asianetindia.com/cong-lok-sabha- ... joins-bjp/

Here another link!

Rebels

1. INC (203) has three rebels tending towards BJP: Rao Inderjit Singh (Gurgaon, Haryana), Sanjay Singh (Sultanpur, UP), Uday Pratap Singh (Hoshangabad, MP)
2. JD(U) (19) has two rebels tending towards BJP: Jainarayan Nishad (Muzaffarpur, Bihar) and Purnamasi Ram (Gopalganj, Bihar).
3. BSP (20) has one rebel tending towards BJP: Vijay Bahadur Singh (Hamirpur, UP), who had praised Modi after the "puppy" remark.

Total 6 rebels

[Shanmukh]

Guys - I am hearing a strange rumour from a Karnataka BJP source (this source is not very reliable - he generally has tall tales). Nevertheless, the rumour is that T Subbarami Reddy is considering quitting the Congress (his current Rajya Sabha term ends next year). I recall that Subbarami Reddy is a real powerhouse in north coastal Andhra. Has anyone else heard anything in this matter?

[ramana]

matrimc,
If you step back and think about it AP division is a classic game of chicken (GOC). Only problem is TDP and YSRCP are not playing the game (or playing a different game) while TRS and Congress are in the game.
Hints:

1)TRS and Congress are making themselves immovable towards division for in GOC flexibility is a weakness

2) TRS and Congress are creating a reputation of being tough and don't care for consequences

3) TRS and Congress are going for broke. Making ridiculous demands like combining two districts from Raylaseema, two years for govt employees to get out of Hyd, etc...


TDP has to go for brinkmanship and/or changing the game by getting other players.

[Rony]

Now Princeton is awarding PhDs for studies on Kammas. This is thesis presentation by one student.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vBvExh7-QY

Like a typical "foreign Indologist", She looks everything even the formation of AP to Telangana movement, Naidu's economic liberalization, development of Hyderabad and pretty much everything else from a caste perspective.Its caste and nothing but caste. She uses words like Kamma hegemony exaggerating the power of Kammas than it actually is.She says Kammas played a key role in formation of Andhra Communist party, took active role in Telangana Communist Uprising and in later periods when they turned capitalists brought the economic liberalization (another Kamma capitalist conspiracy) and they are the ones who brutally crushed the Naxalite movement in Andhra Pradesh (as usual she gives a caste angle even to the crushing of naxalites).She compares Kammas with Patels in Western/Northern India.A leftist/marxist gentleman during Q&A brings in NTR in Krishna roles, connects it to Hinduvta and Modi and both him and her agree that Kammas have staunch Hindu pride.

I checked her antecedents and its quite interesting and suspicious. Dalel Benbabaali is a French-Algerian.She is 33 years old, did her diploma in Telugu and Hindi from a French institute in addition to doing her BA in History, MA and Mphil in Geography and Phd in Social Geography (all from French Universities).She knows six languages ( French,English, Arabic, Telugu, Hindi, German)She worked as a French and English teacher for a NGO in Cambodia, then worked as a French lecturer at Lal Bahadur Shastri Institute of Administration in Mussourie, India and currently as a Assistant Professor of Geography in France.While working in Mussourie, she fell in love with a IAS trainee but we are not sure whether they got married or not.All her publications are related to India only, most of them related to Andhra and Kammas and all of them are critical to her subjects.

Some of her posts and views .As expected for a female 'social researcher", She comes out as a leftist-feminist who quotes Noam Chomskey and has many Indian friends in her Facebook.

On Siachen, - "Time to demilitarize the Himalayas, Kashmir...and the rest of the world!

On her Kashmiri friend - "My first friend in India was a Kashmiri. I met him in Mussoorie, during monsoon 2003. I had just arrived in India to teach French in the National Academy of Administration in that Himalayan hill station.I later learned he is working as a gym coach there.His wife is a Bharatnatyam dancer.When I told him I was the new French teacher, he said: "Two years ago, the French lecturer married an Indian faculty teaching economics here; last year's French teacher is now my wife, so who knows, this year you might marry one of your students." And he laughed.Parvez is now settled in France, since his wife got a job as a Bharatnatyam dance teacher in Paris."

Before her presentation at Princeton - "Preparing for my talk in the train back to New York. Am a bit tensed because it will be video recorded and put online, so I can't even tell jokes about Kammas."

The next speaker in Princeton program for "south asia studies" (I hate that word) is 'Politics of Modi' by none other than anti-modi christophe jaffrelot .

[Vayutuvan]

Is BJP a player at all? Also internal structure of each of these player groups need to be considered. I have an inkling of the controllers and advisors to TRS and their thinking is a mix of Congress (I) and BJP theory but more BJP as some are close to Modi, Nagpur, bhimshankar, all along pranahita to Jabalpur as well. Need to wait and see. Intersting developments ahead. But no stakes as far as I am concerned and hence dispassionate about the outcome. Also politics is bad juju for business.

IMHO, the pastoral triangle in the middle of Paithan, Koti Lingala and Amarvati is the second foundation.

[Sushupti]

Teachers like these awaken sapio-sexual side of my personality.

[devesh]

the thesis at Princeton is all part of the Joshua Project narrative. there is no India. there are only castes, and sub-castes.

[vishvak]

I wonder why such people can't work to eliminate poverty in own nation every time I see such video. It is a sad situation indeed for poor in many countries.

[Altair]

Kiran's new party plans to take off sooner than later. When is the last day for him to announce the party launch for 2014 elections?

[Muppalla]

Kiran's new party plans to take off sooner than later. When is the last day for him to announce the party launch for 2014 elections?

Why do you guys suddenly think that this Kiran is doing things on his own? See the TV9 program (remove the dramatics) that Rony has posted.

KKR is just another scoundrel. When we talk of congress dynasty do not forget the baby dynasties inside the congress party. Sachin Pilot, Jothy Scindia, Jagan Reddy (rebelled), Kasu Krishna Reddy, Kotla Surya Prakash Reddy and the list goes on and on. KKR (AP CM), Nadendla Manohar (AP Speaker) are also sons of ex AP-congress. These idiots know only one thing and that is congress party and Gandhi family as their leader.

You should try to meet the children, grand children of these maha rathis and see how they talk the politics. This entire BRF talks look like alien invasion of Indian politics.

The minds of APites are brimming with biases (united AP or separate T) and emotions and hence the logical deductions are going that way. The realities are really somewhere else.

(1)
The central establishment (call it Dilli billi) cutting across the political parties have come to a conclusion of dividing AP and granting Telangana. The reasons are not popular reasons. It is the culmination of last two and half decades of stuff. The pull power of AP politics in the form of too important for any central government to run which in turn has a handle on primary decisions related to projects/resource allocations of center. CBN and YSR milked a lot for the state. Statistics are only how you interpret but the state is lot more developed in the last two decades. It was a truly a borderline BIMARU state and today we only talk of wealth manufacturing and that is the bottom line.

(2)
As the lobby/pulls of "let us keep AP united" is too big, the decision to divide the state immediately after 2009 victory and post YSR death turned politically impossible to run the government. The government would have fallen with so many diggajas opposing it (Pranab Da, Mamata etc). Meanwhile the congress party started becoming extinct in the state day after day due to the rise of Jagan and TRS. Merging Chiranjeevi or whatever did not bear any fruits. The congress party systemically collapsed at ground level.


The interests of non-political dilli billy and congress party are all same and they are determined to divide AP. If we take away this line we get into biases. The inabilities to not able to split is a different matter. There is also a strong force (may not be as strong as dilli billi) to keep united. In the end the division of state bill may pass as smoothly as food security bill.

Now the question is how to divide it and milk it politically in chaos is the only topic of the day. How to get the anger of Seemandhra that could help us later? KKR forms a party to check Jagan. So in the end the 42 seats are split in the from 5(KKR),12(Jagan),10(TDP), 10(TRS), 4(INC), 1(MIM). Essentially a bunch of baby congress parties. In BJP does not cross 160 then all these except TDP is UPA. If BJP crosses 180 all of these except MIM could be NDA. Basically the works are just to ensure AP is up for grabs.

Division of AP is the 21st century decision of India's establishment otherwise they are losing control for dilli billi. This division is as important as "by hook or crook stop Modi" decision.

[ShyamSP]

Now the question is how to divide it and milk it politically in chaos is the only topic of the day. How to get the anger of Seemandhra that could help us later? KKR forms a party to check Jagan. So in the end the 42 seats are split in the from 5(KKR),12(Jagan),10(TDP), 10(TRS), 4(INC), 1(MIM). Essentially a bunch of baby congress parties. In BJP does not cross 160 then all these except TDP is UPA. If BJP crosses 180 all of these except MIM could be NDA. Basically the works are just to ensure AP is up for grabs.

Division of AP is the 21st century decision of India's establishment otherwise they are losing control for dilli billi. This division is as important as "by hook or crook stop Modi" decision.

BJP 0 ? One member will be disappointed here

So where is KKR going to get 5 seats. If KKR starts SamaikyAndhra Congress (SAC), we have 3 forrms of INC in Seemandhra - INC, YSRC, SAC. Sure there will be personal glory if he sticks to his stand but if YSRC want to go for kill on all 25 seats, it is not going to work out in electoral terms. With 1-2% voting differences as in 2009 between INC and TDP, it is easy for TDP to close the gap if SAC takes away even 3%. TDP may even gain vote bank due to home coming of old voters (Ghar vapasis)

Splinter is INC is in the interest of BJP and TDP.

Coming to the Telangana they need to accomplish the similar splinter. This is key to observe from now to before selection of candidates for next elections. BJP should attempt early split of TRS, otherwise all that sitting with TRS and abusing is for what? to give Telangana to INC+TRS?

[Muppalla]

ShyamSP garu, The plot is to make baby-congresses succeed and off course the results could be different. TDP is not a openly SA theme party anymore and they want to use the anger between YSRC and KKR. For KKR the candidates will such as Lagadapati, Kavuri who can spend 200 cr per seat types. Out of such a bunch even if he wins 2 to 3 seats then the strategy is a hit. The strategy is to either splinter the state and put fights between regions or splinter the vote politically and play one over another.

[Yagnasri]

I am not sure he will divide TDP votes. TDP has its base in tact in Costal and Rayalaseema areas. Anger is on COngress not on TDP. Every one know mafia queen did division so why people are angry on TDP or anyother party. I think TDP may get around 10-15 seats in a multi cornered contest. TRS is over rated and people in every area are fed up with congress. So mafia and its small incornations will not get much even in AP.

[ShyamSP]

ShyamSP garu, The plot is to make baby-congresses succeed and off course the results could be different. TDP is not a openly SA theme party anymore and they want to use the anger between YSRC and KKR. For KKR the candidates will such as Lagadapati, Kavuri who can spend 200 cr per seat types. Out of such a bunch even if he wins 2 to 3 seats then the strategy is a hit. The strategy is to either splinter the state and put fights between regions or splinter the vote politically and play one over another.

Kavuri was bought with Polavaram project. KKR is untested fellow so not everyone is sure how credible and reliable he is. We'll know in a few months. As for Lagadapati, he is fair game for any party (either BJP or TDP) to pick him. He needs political affiliations beyond Congress to expand his power business. (Based on scribd book I posted, he moved to politics leaving business to his brother. Another brother is in media/cinema business. He may need to expand political sphere to more than Congress now.).

More than KKR how Chiru (I know he is somewhat diminished) plays the politics, esp from Godavari and up will be interesting. He already may be asking his loyalists to move to TDP based or murmurs from old PRP leaders. If there is a split, there may be Reddy-Kamma-Kapu alliance to keep INC out of Seemandhra (sort of Musunuri alliance in Kakatiya times)

Seemandhra, south of Krishna district, is between TDP and YSRC. So KKR can't win any MP seat but will work as spoiler for YSRC which can be useful for TDP.

[RajeshA]

Published on Nov 16, 2013
By B.V. Shiva Shankar
BJP may not support Telangana bill: Times of India

HYDERABAD: The Congress's 'we-mean-business' attitude on the Telangana front is all set to be punctured by the BJP, whose leaders predicted on Friday the Telangana bill will not come up in Parliament during the winter session.

Even if the bill is tabled, there is no guarantee the BJP will support it since the Congress's intention is to only reap political gains, leaders of the opposition party claimed.

Congress leaders, including home minister Sushilkumar Shinde, have said the Telangana bill will be tabled during the winter session of Parliament starting on December 5.

"As per my information, the Congress-led UPA government won't table the Telangana bill," BJP national spokesperson Prakash Javadekar told TOI over the phone from Delhi. "Even if the bill is tabled, it'd be for political reasons and not for the benefit of the people of Telangana. So, why should we say we'd support the bill at this stage? Let them come clear on the issues the Seemandhra people are raising and come out with the draft bill. We'll react after that."

The BJP's approach could make it difficult for the Congress to get the bill passed. While it may be able to scrape through in the Lok Sabha, the Congress will require the support of the principal opposition party to get it passed in the Rajya Sabha. The Congress has 71 members and the BJP 44 in the upper house of Parliament. "Therefore, things aren't as hunky-dory on the Telangana front as the Congress is making them out to be," said a leader.

The BJP's sudden reluctance is also being attributed to the approach of its prime ministerial candidate and Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi.

"After being informed by the party's local unit that the BJP's pro-Telangana approach may fetch it only one Lok Sabha seat (Mahbubnagar) in the region, while a tie-up with the TDP could give it more dividends in the Seemandra region, Modi is preferring to swing in support of Seemandhra and has told local leaders he won't visit Andhra Pradesh until the party makes its pro-Seemandhra stance clear," said a BJP source.

So, the BJP has now started championing Seemandhra interests.

"The BJP's stand hasn't changed," said Nirmala Sitharaman, another spokesperson of the BJP. "We've made it clear we're for smaller states and we want to see a separate Telangana state. However, at the same time, the interests of the Seemandhra region too should be protected. The Congress cannot take people for granted and go ahead with its own agenda. At this stage, our reaction is no reaction as we don't know what the Congress is going to propose on the Telangana front."

While taking pains to drive home the point that his party is committed to the cause of Telangana, Javadekar said it is the Centre's responsibility to address the concerns of the people of Seemandhra arising out of the division of Andhra Pradesh, and the BJP will never spell out its stand unless the Congress comes clear on pertinent issues such as the status of Hyderabad, the safety and security of Seemandhra people living in Hyderabad and the rest of Telangana, and the sharing of river waters and revenue.

Endorsing the view, state unit president G Kishan Reddy said there is no question of the BJP revealing its cards before the Congress comes out with the draft bill. "The GoM meeting with the political parties was an eyewash meant to fool the people of both Telangana and Seemandhra," Reddy said. "They asked us to respond to their terms of reference without even spelling out their stand on the mentioned issues. And they're seeking the same in the case of the Telangana bill. But our stand is clear. We'll react only when we know the details of the bill."

As one can see it should not be a problem for Congress to get its way in Rajya Sabha as well. I could have up to 124 votes in a house of 245, i.e. if one adds the nominated and the independent MPs.

[Shanmukh]

As one can see it should not be a problem for Congress to get its way in Rajya Sabha as well. I could have up to 124 votes in a house of 245, i.e. if one adds the nominated and the independent MPs.

The BJP should now go in for the kill and grab all the unhappy SeemaAndhra leaders that it can. And there are plenty of them unhappy. The vital thing is for the BJP to gain the credit for the stopping of the division of Andhra Pradesh.