Bharat Rakshak

This Tahir-Ul-Qadri fellow has been summoned by GHQ probably to keep badmash and his brother on back foot while GHQ is busy bombing civilians.

State Dept. press release today:

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/06/228431.htm

Amendments to the Terrorist Designations of Lashkar-e-Tayyiba

More recently, LET was responsible for the May 23, 2014 attack on the Indian Consulate in Herat, Afghanistan.

CRamS wrote: My take: Fair didi is a nano bit player, doubt any honcho takes her seriously, Riedel is an ex CIA machismo, may have some influence. .

Both spot on, per my encounter with an SD insider a couple of years ago. Riedel is an establishment guy and is taken quite seriously in Foggy Bottom, and along with Dan Markey and Ashley Tellis is considered "relatively pro-India" (George Perkovitch and Robert Einhorn are establishment guys known as "anti-India" by comparison).

Christine Fair was described by the same person as a "kook". It's an image she tries to play up to, using off-color language in her public statements, the exact opposite of the mealy-mouthed career-equivocator SOD hack David whats-his-face who was sitting to her left at the Hudson Institute presentation. But it does mean that she will carry little if any weight with policymakers.

(Interesting data point about the Hudson Institute, by the way-- the place where C. Fair makes her presentation in that video. Nina Shea, director of the Hudson Institute's "Center For Religious Freedom" and a rabid Evanjehadi, was responsible for setting up the USCIRF whose one claim to fame has been the denial of Narendra Modi's US visa. Curious eh?)

If any consolation, same SD person said Uneven Cohen is not taken seriously at all.

Paul wrote: Modi is not a despot and surely has a competent set of advisors who will weigh in if situation warrants.
.

True, and WE know it.

I think we will find out that there is a *VAST* discrepancy, however, between the reality of Modi and what the West (especially US foreign policy establishment) thinks Modi is. I think they are still reeling with shock that he was elected, because they chose to buy 400% the line that Congi Paidmedia was trying to feed the Indian public: mass-murdering Hindoo Nazi dictatorial autocratic Hitler etc. etc.

Indian public were smart enough not to buy that. But the US establishment relied exclusively on "sources" like IMCA, CAG, FOIL, FOSA, and others who were responsible for such travesties as the USCIRF "hearings" on Gujarat 2002. Washington seems to have consumed this propaganda as genuine intelligence wholesale... exactly as they swallowed the Ahmed Chalabi stories about how 100% of Iraqi population was Anti-Saddam and would welcome their American saviours with garlands in 2003.

No doubt whatsoever that certain Pakslimes... Huma Abedin, Uzra Zeya and others close to the Clinton clique have played crucial roles in evangelizing this version of Who Modi Is. It is of course, ultimately to the US' detriment that they have fallen for this propaganda... but the US being what it is, any policies it has formulated on the basis of these assumptions will cause more than enough trouble in our neighbourhood.

arun wrote:Emirates suspends Peshawar operations - DAWN
“Emirates has suspended flights to and from Peshawar effective 25 June 2014 until further notice, due to the security situation at the destination. Affected passengers will be rebooked on alternative Emirates’ flights and are asked to check on emirates.com for further updates. We apologise for the inconvenience caused – however, the safety of our passengers and crew is a top priority and will not be compromised,” said an Emirates spokesperson.

The talking {sic} off strip is toward the northern side, which ends at the main University Road near Tambwan Chowk but the slums of Tehkal starts from the main road which have often been used by the miscreants to fire rockets at the airport in the past.

Emirates is not the only Airline from fellow Mohammadden “Brotherly” UAE to have suspended flights to Peshawar. Etihad has also joined the bandwagon.

The Islamic Republic of Pakistan must complain to The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation erstwhile Organization of the Islamic Conference aka OIC demanding that Dubai and Abu Dhabi be forced to resume flights given the Islamic Republic's role of being sole Mohammadden Nuclear Power, Fortress of Mohammaddenism and Victim of {Self Created} Mohammadden Terrorists :

Emirates, Etihad suspend Peshawar flight operations

As a most likely redundant memory refresher for BRFites, Cathay Pacific had announced a week back suspension of flights to Karachi:

Cathay Pacific to suspend all Pakistan flights after Karachi airport attack

The Islamic Republic of Pakistan is certainly reaping the whirlwind of Mohammadden Terrorism she herself had sown for the purpose of harming India .

Anybody taking bets on if such firings will happen in other cities like Isloo or Karachi. I am in for $1,000,000 Paki Rupee onlee.

-M

I know this is not a question to ask when we are talking about insane Bakistani animals but:

Why in the world would you shoot at a plane coming from anywhere? There might be shia/sunni/ahmedi/wahabi or anyone in that plane and you would never know. Other than total insanity and "just for baki-fun" (aka horror), why?

LokeshC wrote:I know this is not a question to ask when we are talking about insane Bakistani animals but:

Why in the world would you shoot at a plane coming from anywhere? There might be shia/sunni/ahmedi/wahabi or anyone in that plane and you would never know. Other than total insanity and "just for baki-fun" (aka horror), why?

The tayyaras are a symbol of cooperation with the west. They permit the collaborators to travel, store their valuables abroad, maintain western presence, etc. Fighting tayyaras are also dropping poo on waziristan. All tayyars are bad. They have to be stopped if emirate iss to be created.

The theory is that without tayyaras, departures would hasten. And without west, the army can not withstand the green population anger. successful ghazwa.

Thus mehran, karachi, peshawar, etc. I was surprised at how many airlines flew to peshawar. Pakjab/Lawhore will be the hardeest for taliban to shut down. islamagood etc dont service much, and are close enough to talibs to make an impact.

"common occurance" was a surprise too me. Emirates ia an alliance member/major player. They cant afford a shaheen image.

"Inshallah we will be landing in Krrach/Pisshour/Slumbad in a few minutes. Temperature outside is 35 degrees celsius. If you look outside the windows on the left side of the aircraft you will see non-state actors attempting to welcome you with RAW-supplied ordinance..."

Sheer class.
PeeAref is always good for a laugh at the end of a long day herding FORTRAN code through a goat-pasture.

kancha wrote:^^
Or atleast an Indian 'Hand'!

I think it has to be Indian hand along full length arm wearing safety glove. SDRE thing like single finger etc will be simply lost in Paki Wide Mush for days to show and make feel its presence.

UlanBatori wrote:

"Inshallah we will be landing in Krrach/Pisshour/Slumbad in a few minutes. Temperature outside is 35 degrees celsius. If you look outside the windows on the left side of the aircraft you will see non-state actors attempting to welcome you with RAW-supplied ordinance..."Sheer class.
PeeAref is always good for a laugh at the end of a long day herding FORTRAN code through a goat-pasture.

Dekho Dekho Dekho, Paaakistan Dekho
Friday Evening ka Loyal Blast Dekho
Pishawar Ka Talbani Yaar Dekho
Lahore ka Islamist Beemar Dekho
Karachi Ka Keema Achar Dekho
Yeh Duniya Ka Terror Central
Faithfoolon Pey Aqal Ki Maaaaaaar Dekhowwww
Paisa Phainko, Suicide Bomber Kharido!

Rudradev wrote:Actually I am wondering if there isn't something chankian going on with the rash of US "think tank" presentations by authors that seem to enunciate a tubelight "Oh! They were evil all along!" moment with regard to STFUP.
Why now?

Divorce time is approaching in the usual marriage-divorce cycle and the ground is being prepared.

Jhujar wrote:

kancha wrote:^^
Or atleast an Indian 'Hand'!

I think it has to be Indian hand along full length arm wearing safety glove. SDRE thing like single finger etc will be simply lost in Paki Wide Mush for days to show and make feel its presence.

Given so many foreign hands in there, even if we really do something, Indian hand will probably not be noticed at all. The usual, "there is an Indian Hand" cry will occur with everything we really end up doing in Baki land, but that would be about it. crying wolf story repeat. No one will care about Bakis and their mush full of foreign hands.

Paul wrote:All I am saying is that there were warning signs for Saddam if he had listened with his ear to the ground. ..

Google April Glaspie, US Amby to Iraq and what she said to SH re Kuwait

One of the things that emerges from the Riedel talk video is a degree of helplessness in the US. In the past using words like "helplessness" along with the name "US" usually resulted in the person saying it being beaten down by RAH-RAH-USians with assertions that the US is never helpless - everything is deliberate and planned. That is an "Allah has all good things planned out" type of view of America which hampers rational analysis.

Riedel states the US has simply been funding the Paki army because they have not thought of any better alternative. In support of this idiotic tactic the fellow with the glasses sitting with Riedel disagreed with Riedel on Pakistan's lack of cooperation and said that the Paki army had been very helpful in eliminating Al Qaeda. Interesting. bin Laden sat in Pakistan for 10 years directing operations and the US thought the Paki army was cooperating with Al Qaeda. I must be careful not to say that the US is stupid - or I will get bashed down by someone who says I don't know about the US.

It strikes me that the US is afraid of what will happen if they stop bribing the Pakistani army. Riedel takes great pains to point out that

• Pakistan is an important country
• It is too large and populous for the US to take military action
• Even as a best case scenario Pakistan will have 350 million people in 20 years
• Even if the US defeats the Paki army and somehow takes care of nukes, what will the US do with the country "they have conquered"?

With all the experts and analysts we have on BRF I think one of the focus areas we can look at is an analysis of what can happen if the US stops funding the Pakistani military completely. The US is currently (IMO irrationally) afraid of doing that. Also IMO the US is wrong (with apologies to anyone who feels hurt/upset/angry at such blasphemy)

In order to do such analysis we (BRF analysts) have to stop saying "It can't happen or it won't happen". We have to imagine that it has happened and then look at which way things might go. Too often we use the US as a psychological crutch where we predict a US action "out of the blue" because we do not want to think the issue through any further. We do that by killing further analysis by saying "Oh the US will do xyz". Like nukes - "If Pakistan moves their nukes the US will take them out", Such a conclusion is a real killer of thought for anyone who wants to ask "What if the US is unable to take them out?". The usual answer has been "You don't know how capable/powerful/omnipotent the US is"

We need to cut that crap and put down scenarios of what might happen if the US stops funding the Paki army so that the idea comes out into the "open source" sphere and hopefully the irrational fear America has of the Pakistan army can be modified and new thought processes can come out of sclerotic American thinking.

BRF wisdom has often called for breaking up the artifical moth-eaten entity into its natural constituents. The 4 provinces should really be 4 sovereign nations, for a start. There are ways and there are ways of dealing with Pak if there's an ounce of imagination up unkil's rear end.

abhishek_sharma wrote:‘Modi-Sharif talks reopened back channel’

sounds kinky onlee

chetak wrote:

abhishek_sharma wrote:‘Modi-Sharif talks reopened back channel’

sounds kinky onlee

Well PM Modi was after all, a tea seller as the western publications have so often impressed on us. May be he knows a good julaab chai recipe to open the back channels. Perhapsd that is why the rush by sharif to attend the inauguration and obtain the medication.

Re. the divorce situation, I have a different theory. They days of foreign wars are gone for this generation. Vietnam style, the US likes and hates it foreign wars in alternate generations. Iraq/af/pak were enough. So the current script is from that ancient strategic manual called asterix and the goths. There is no plan, except to create more combatants. Create a fireline east of turkey/east europe. Let Russia/India/China worry about their stans (literally the houses) when the fire gets there. The kindling is complete, now they wait for the weather (25,000 shias from india waiting to fight for iraq) to be favorable.

Has this been posted before ? Carlotta Gall on "the wrong enemy"

PeeAref is always good for a laugh at the end of a long day herding FORTRAN code through a goat-pasture

. Joo ishtill herd FORTRAN and not do the maa-darn C,C++ , Java thingies ? How do you find abduls to even mind the goats these days when all of them are into herding maa-darn Yaks ?

(OT..) Yaks yooze matlab without knowing the matlab of anything (GIGO). Or they RUN (crawl is a better word) humongous See Eph Dee codes which are even more GIGO, with lots of color tasveer and no sense. This is unfortunately not the yaks actually working, it is MOI actually working. ALONE. 500 km away from home base.

See cross-cross is haraam and they haven't invented C crescent-crescent yet. But it is true, I realized with a jolt the other din that modarn Tarb-ul-ant See Eph Dee is written in haraam See-cross-cross. A Crusader plot, no doubt. Fortran newer versions are as messy as See-cross-cross, with all sorts of stuff. I think human advancement ended with F77.

Watch this video (listen to the talk) for 46 seconds from the point in the link below
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... MRIuY#t=19

With 25 billion US dollar aid to Pakistan from the US, Pakistan has received

• 18 F-16 fighters
• 8 Orion Patrol aircraft
• 6000 TOW anti-tank missiles
• 500 AMRAAM missiles
• 6 X C-130 transport aircraft
• 20 Cobra helicopter gunships
• 1 Kerry class missile destroyer

Now let us have a list of problems faced by Pakistan as per the news in the last 5 years

• Sectarian violence, Sunnis killing Shias
• Taliban mounting increasingly brazen attacks in Punjab and Sindh
• Vast areas of the country out of control of the Pakistan army and/or government. 40% of Karachi out of control
• Lack of power supply. Industry and life out of gear. Exports (eg textiles) suffer
• Increasing population and illiteracy
• Polio

Now let me make a list of problems that the Pakistan army and many Pakistanis feel they have had in the last 50 years

• India
• India
• India
• India
• India India India India India India India India India

Now let us see how US aid matches up with helping to solve Pakistan's problems

• 18 F-16 fighters: India - check, Taliban, Sectarian violence, polio, power supply, illiteracy
• 8 Orion Patrol aircraft: India- check, Taliban, Sectarian violence, polio, power supply, illiteracy
• 6000 TOW anti-tank missiles: India - check, Taliban, Sectarian violence, polio, power supply, illiteracy
• 500 AMRAAM missiles: India - check , Taliban, Sectarian violence, polio, power supply, illiteracy
• 6 X C-130 transport aircraft: India- check, Taliban- check, Sectarian violence, polio, power supply, illiteracy
• 20 Cobra helicopter gunships: India - check, Taliban - check , Sectarian violence, polio, power supply, illiteracy
• 1 Kerry class missile destroyer: India - check, Taliban, Sectarian violence, polio, power supply, illiteracy

So what has the US achieved since 9-11?
1. It has not made Pakistan the country any more united, peaceful or safe
2. It has made the Pakistani army more dangerous to India
3. It has not managed to get the support and cooperation of the Pakistani army despite bribing and feeding the army's fears about India

It is possible to reach all sorts of conclusions about the US from this, none of them are complimentary or positive from the Indian viewpoint. In fact none of them are complimentary even from the US viewpoint -- the US comes across as being ham-fisted, blinkered and stupid - and I think that is an important conclusion to accept. It is important to move beyond the idea that what the US does is right and in the US's own interests. Nothing it has done in Pakistan is in the US's interests.

By trying to balance India with Pakistan the US has encouraged/forced India to gradually make itself overwhelmingly powerful in defence against Pakistan, and has aggravated that by arming Pakistan even more so that Pakistan is now a risk to anyone in the region. With India being in a general stat of readiness against Pakistan - it is Afghanistan and US troops there that become vulnerable. And if the US pulls out, it sets the stage for a failed state in turmoil of the sort that created 9-11. How long will it be before US small arms are used against US airliners in the US is a question that comes to my mind.

One possible way out is to oversee a gradual reduction in the military strength of the Pakistani army. But that would require another long post

Actually I am wondering if there isn't something chankian going on with the rash of US "think tank" presentations by authors that seem to enunciate a tubelight "Oh! They were evil all along!" moment with regard to STFUP.
Why now?

Divorce time is approaching in the usual marriage-divorce cycle and the ground is being prepared.



Pakistanis will find another way to offer their good orifices (a la Nixon and the China overture).

sanjaykumar wrote:Pakistanis will find another way to offer their good orifices (a la Nixon and the China overture).

No doubt about that. Either a situation will develop or will be contrived for the 'Made-for-Each-Other' to go to bed all over again. ISIL, Ukraine, so many things happening. Divorce itself is sometime away.

Hari Seldon wrote:BRF wisdom has often called for breaking up the artifical moth-eaten entity into its natural constituents. The 4 provinces should really be 4 sovereign nations, for a start. There are ways and there are ways of dealing with Pak if there's an ounce of imagination up unkil's rear end.

The Pakistan army has always presented itself as the upholder pf Pakistan's unity and sovereignty. It has had the coercive power to suppress revolts in Baluchistan and the NWFP and FATA while concentrating against big bad India.

That army has now more or less lost control of 40% of Karachi and Waziristan. It also exerts only partial control over Baluchistan.

The Pakistani army has received aid mainly against India (from the US) and only against India from China.

Control of Waziristan or Karachi has never been a Pakistani army priority because they consider everyone "deen" -pious Muslims who are on their side. China and the US have believed that, and have aided the army against its only enemy, India. Part of the reason why the Pakistani army consider the Taliban and extremists their own people is because the army is now Islamized and Talibanized. The old whisky swilling, western life loving Paki army is gone - and this is where I think we on BRF are behind the curve - in imagining that the Paki jernails still enjoy the "good things of western culture" . They tolerate those things inasmuch as it earns them funds and arms aid. But they are themselves more like Taliban than Sandhurst or West Point. Oh of course they still want thei children to go to the west, but those children are looking for an islamized Pakistani life in the west - they are no blind admirers of western values.

Let me say it here - the bad news for America is that there is little difference between Taliban and Pakistan army. Taliban like minds already have their fingers on the nuclear button.

That being the case, what is to be gained by supporting one faction of Taliban - called the "Pakistan army" against other factions? The worst that can happen by withdrawing support is a gradual dissolving of artificial lines between Pakistan army and Taliban and a slipping away of the independent states of Pakistan.

What will happen to the nukes? Maybe some other post for that.

The US armed Pakistanis against India imagining that the Pakistani army would support the US because US aid gave it the power to resist India. But the Pakistani army did not suport the US. It continued to support the Taliban.

Under these circumstances, which Einstein in any think tank can rest peacefully thinking that the Pakistani army, with nuclear bombs in its hands, is simply going to restrict the use of nukes against India alone and that the US and China are exempt?

Since 1999 more US troops have been killed by Taliban and Pakistani army than anyone else, and more Pakistan supporting forces have been killed by US drones and western forces than by anyone else.

While India is an enemy, so is the US and NATO.

Pakistan has nuclear weapons, which have been openly described as Islamic nuclear bombs. The Pakistan army is now Islamized and about 50% support the Taliban.

How will aid to the Pakistani army make the US safe? This is a question that

1. The US is avoiding because they don;t know what to do
2. US Rahrahians insist that the US "has secret plans"

I propose that the US has no plans. It is just a hope that the US has plans - a hope harboured by people who love and have deep faith in the US of A. Hope is not a plan.

A kuffar yinginiyar brofsar ex ayeayetee relative of mine in Amrika told me blasphemously that Fortran still remains good phor Yinginyaring/math applications. Need to check al Kitab for truth.

Sorry for Pinglish OT. These people should have done sociology/linguistics in Harvard instead of wasting their time with pre 600 BC Fortran.

Doctor Saab, good thought-experiment. Let's think about what it would actually look like if the US cut military aid to Pakistan.

First we have to look at the three types of US military aid that currently go to Pakistan.

A-aid) The obvious, big ticket items: F16s, AMRAAMs, TOWs, Cobras, P3Cs etc. This is direct military assistance, and the Pakis don't pay for it. It pays for itself in creating jobs and fattening contracts for US manufacturers.

B-aid) The opportunity benefit for TSPA afforded by giving essentially free weapons to Pakistan. Pakistan has a HUGE defence budget. If none of that budget is actually going towards buying weapons, then what is it used for? Essentially to pay for Fauji holdings in any number of industries and agricultural ventures, and maintain the Faujis (down to mid-level officers, Kernails etc.) in a snazzy lifestyle, making Fauj a great career choice for aspirational middle-class Pakis. If TSP actually had to buy weapons with its defence budget there would be much less money for all this.

C-aid) Money that the US, through opaque mechanisms, uses to basically buy Jernails at the corpse-commando level. This is basically cash in pocket tendered to gain political influence, though it moves through all kinds of GOAT-related channels. In the big scheme of things it is not a lot of money, but the US trusts that it keeps certain key jernails as loyal to them as possible. This kind of aid also includes student visas, US college admissions for kids, shopping trips for begums during "consultancy" junkets, etc.

The kind of aid Bruce Reidel wants to cut is basically A, which may or may not have some impact on B (the Chinese will probably step in as suppliers of A-aid, relieving the pressure on B-aid, which we can discuss later.)

Now we have to see what the cutting of A-aid to Pakistan means in terms of its warmaking capacity on India.

There are essentially three types of scenarios to consider.

1) India decides to go for an all out conventional invasion of Pakistan. For the purpose of this scenario let's take nuclear weapon use out of consideration.

My hypothesis: if India really decides to go for an aar-paar conventional ladai against Pakistan, NO amount of A-aid from the US in terms of weapons systems, even with the US aid spigot fully open, can save Pakistan from destruction.

No matter how many F-16s and AMRAAMs the Pakis get from US, IAF will degrade Fizzle-Ya completely within two-three weeks.

No matter how many P3Cs or Phalanx PDS the Pakis get, PN can be rendered useless by IN the day-after-tomorrow.

No matter how many TOWs or Cobras or leftover GOAT Humvees the Pakis get, IA will end up breaking through the NH1 line and having tea at Rahim Yaar Khan within three-four weeks at the most.

The issue is only the *incremental pain* that TSPA/N/AF can impose on their Indian counterparts before the inevitable defeat. If the US fully opens the A-aid spigot, the Pakis will reach some maximum capacity to inflict costs on Indian forces before the inevitable defeat. But the defeat will happen anyway.

The deterrent effect for India is basically this. When Paki capacity to inflict pain is maximal, though we will still win, we might end up with our forces sufficiently degraded that we could not take on a PRC attack in the near future, say 6-9 months after the war. Even to get back in shape within 6-9 months of the war would mean that we would have to spend scarce money on purchasing foreign weapons systems to replace what we had lost, which in turn would mean a blow to the indigenous defense R&D industry, not to mention a huge delay in defraying the economic costs of a major war with Pakistan. So that is there.

But that STILL wouldn't save the Pakis' ass.

Conclusion: No amount of A-aid from US would save the Paki's ass in case of a major, all-out conventional war launched by India. Pakis know this.

2) India decides to go for a limited-theater conventional war, like Cold Start, against Pakistan. In response to a major terrorist attack, say, we send some IBGs across a certain section of border to destroy Paki military units and infrastructure punitively, and then come back.

In this case, A-aid does give some sense of confidence to TSPA/N/AF in terms of credibility when lying about the extent of their defeat later on.

They can CLAIM (and it is always all about claiming with them, rewriting history to posit victory in '48 and '65 for example) that their Cobra helicopters, TOWs etc. were able to destroy 1,000,000 Kufr tanks. Proof: the Kufrs went back to India! If TSPA did not have Cobras and TOWs it might be slightly more difficult for the Paki aam abduls to believe such stories.

The same goes for a Kargil-type situation. During Kargil 1999, the TSPAF did not even dare fly any missions in support of the intrusion, because all their hardware was khatara. If Kargil or something like it is repeated, and the TSPAF have shiny new F-16s, they might try some stunts when we send in the Mirage 2000s to blast Paki-occupied bunkers on our soil. The end result will of course be the same... Pakistan going home and leaving thousands of corpses behind. However, some amount of H&D salvage is possible for TSPA by claiming "oh our F-16s shot down 1,000,000 Mirage 2000s and MKIs when they tried to bomb our brave mujahedin." Who's going to check? Not the illiterate Paki audience intended for that message.

However, this is a small comfort compared to the very real pain that TSPA WILL face in terms of a limited theater-engagement launched by India (Cold-Start type operation) or by them (Kargil type intrusion). I would argue that even with the A-aid spigot turned fully on, the Pakis will not have the nerve to launch another Kargil. There are plenty of officers in the TSPA who remember well the disastrous ass-kicking that turned into for them.

In addition, the "incremental cost imposition" factor afforded by US-gifted A-aid items actually becomes disproportionately smaller when you think in terms of small, limited theater engagements compared with the all out war of scenario (1). Yes, they can send F-16 sorties to threaten our Mirage 2000s dropping LGBs on their Kargil-type intruders; and we in turn can send MKI sorties to knock out their F-16s. Net result, they stand to lose not only the intruders (as in 1999) but also some F-16s. Not good for them.

Conclusion: No amount of A-aid from the US will save the Pakis' ass if we launch a Cold Start type mission, or if they launch a Kargil type intrusion. The A-aid might give them some more credibility (like the F86 Sabres of '65) when they lie about the results of battle in textbooks published ten years later... so what else is new. Their ass will not be saved, bottom line.

3) KNOWING the Conclusions I derive for Scenarios 1 and 2 to be true... the Pakis rely ultimately ONLY on nuclear weapons to save their ass.

That is why they begged, borrowed and stole Chinese nuclear weapons in the first place. That is why they are making scores of tactical nuclear weapons now. They know that NO amount of American A-aid can ever serve the stated purpose of American A-aid, i.e. providing big ticket items sufficient to deter India at a conventional level alone.

If India one day woke up really determined to crush and destroy Pakistan, and it was a completely conventional scenario, India could and would do it regardless of whatever the Americans had given them (which is a lot, considering they get more military aid from the Americans than any other country but Israel).

So what do we learn from all this?

i) That, while American military aid in terms of actual weapons systems can increase the costs of conventional war to India, it is ultimately insufficient to tip the scale against Indian victory in either a limited or a full-theater engagement.

ii) That the Pakis rely on nukes and only nukes for deterrence (and/or umbrella blackmail) against India, and that this does NOT change REGARDLESS of whether they receive American military aid in terms of actual weapons systems. They are getting that A-aid now and they are building the nukes anyway, what does that tell you? They do not have any confidence that the A-aid will save their ass, period.

iii) Therefore, all three parties: the Americans, the Pakistanis, and the Indians know that American A-aid to Pakistan is not a game changer for India-Pakistan relations. If Pakistan does something to provoke us sufficiently, we will destroy them regardless of that aid. The end results won't be good for us in terms of the incremental costs the Pakis will be able to impose on our conventional forces using the additional A-aid items, plus the opportunity cost with respect to deterring China conventionally. But they won't change the outcome.

iv) However the above (incremental cost factor) is ONLY relevant if India actually wants to go to conventional war against Pakistan. Since 1971 we have shown not the slightest sign of wanting to do that. Our threshold of provocation is now so high that, if it is ever crossed by Pakistan, we will not CARE about the incremental conventional costs imposed by American military aid... we will be SO angry and so determined to fug them up that we won't even care if there is a nuclear exchange.

v) Therefore, the unspoken consensus is that American A-aid to Pakistan is useless. It won't give Pakistanis the guts to mount a Kargil. And if we get angry enough, it won't stop us from destroying Pakistan militarily any more than Pakistani nukes will.

vi) This is why we don't care if the US gives these items to Pakistan, or don't bother enough to complain seriously about it in any case.

vii) What the American A-aid to Pakistan REALLY achieves is three things (for America, not for Pakistan). One, it lets the Pakistani defence budget be spent on B-aid, which keeps the TSPA officer corps in TFTA Ashraf class lifestyle (that is the REAL American bribe to TSPA/N/AF in all this). Two, it creates hardware platform dependency of the TSP armed forces on the Americans (in terms of supplies, maintenance, upgrade verticals etc.) ... this makes Pakis subject to whims, fancies, and sanctions of the Americans in future, at least in theory. Three, it prevents the Chinese or Russians from benefiting from a similar hardware platform dependency if the Americans were to cut TSP off.

viii) India is OK with this (wisely or unwisely is a different issue). That is the true meaning of US-India strategic cooperation (such as it is).

FINAL CONCLUSION: US direct military hardware assistance to Pakistan is irrelevant, given India's present strategic calculations. If we really want to destroy Pakistan in all-out military conflict we still can, because such a decision on our part means confronting the reality of a nuclear exchange with Pakistan, and on this scale of projected costs the incremental threat posed by Pakistani F16s, AMRAAMs, TOWs etc. is immaterial.

End result, Pakistan is not going to be defeated by any Indian conventional (OR nuclear) military arsenal. It is going to be destroyed by a combination of economic strategy, covert strategy, subconventional operations and proxy warfare (in true 21st century style). Sorry mil-heads, the great tank battles across rolling Punjabi plains and dramatic naval blockades of Krrachi are relics of the 20th century that we will never see again. When it's all over we may have to nuke some remnants of Pakistan just to make sure they don't get up again, but that's about it.

Our conventional forces, from this point forward, need to be improved with PRC and only PRC in mind. We have to be able to fight a two-front war if necessary, one in which Pakistan will be deterred with the assurance of savage punishment (NOT invaded with intent of long-term occupation), but in which PRC will be defeated thoroughly and comprehensively with territorial losses accruing deep within its present borders.

Our strategic forces, meanwhile, need to be improved to take on any potential enemy anywhere in the world.

That's my take. A very unrigorous argument because it is late at night. Let me know what you all think.

shiv wrote:A kuffar yinginiyar brofsar ex ayeayetee relative of mine in Amrika told me blasphemously that Fortran still remains good phor Yinginyaring/math applications. Need to check al Kitab for truth.

Sorry for Pinglish OT. These people should have done sociology/linguistics in Harvard instead of wasting their time with pre 600 BC Fortran.

If not mistaken, the back end applications for VISA, MASTER CARD and AMEX are still running on FORTRAN world wide onlee, with very little chance of change in the near to midterm future

JCPA analyst: 1,000 Chinese jihadists training in Pakistan

Some 1,000 Chinese jihadists are receiving military training at a base in Pakistan, as an indeterminate number of Chinese nationals are already fighting inside Syria, Jacques Neriah told a top-flight delegation from China visiting the country.

Neriah, a Middle East analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA) who was formerly foreign policy adviser to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, presented material to his guests on the role of thousands of Chinese jihadists in the Syrian civil war, as well as on the involvement of volunteers from Uzbekistan and other Central Asian states surrounding China.

What makes the existence of a training camp in North Waziristan in Pakistan even more interesting from a Chinese perspective, is that China and Pakistan are allies.

The 10-person Chinese delegation includes several participants from the Central Party School (CPS) of the Communist Party’s central committee, which has served as a training ground for China’s top leadership, including its president, Xi Jinping.

The delegation arrived at the beginning of the week to take part in a symposium organized jointly by JCPA and SIGNAL, the Sino-Israel Global Network and Academic Leadership, and to discuss joint Israeli-Chinese interests in the Middle East.

JCPA head Dore Gold said that in understanding the operations of al-Qaida and its “franchises” operating around the world, it was necessary to keep in mind the groups’ strategies, as well as the fact that “there are certain risks” when the volunteers fighting in Syria return home.

Israel, Gold said, has “a great deal of knowledge about the spread of jihadist organizations, and when you learn the patterns in parts of Africa and Europe, it may have applications in other parts of the world.”

According to Gold, while many people are aware of the growing business and economic interests that Israel and China share, and the extensive ties between their business communities, the two countries also have “shared strategic foreign policy interests” – among the most important being counter- terrorism.

Shoaib Akhtar, 38, Ties Knot With 20-Year-Old

It seems to ward off criticism, Akhtar is now telling that the girl's age as 20, instead of 17. What a shameful creature. Wait for a decade, probably he might replicate Aisha moment (55-8).

The DT Editorial threw this below joke without a warning

Pakistan’s receding position as a destination is hence a significant financial loss and has its roots in the inability of successive governments to develop airport facilities against competition from destinations like Dubai.

The sudden flood of news conferences, articles, books etc against Pakistan from US: isn't withdrawal from Afghanistan ( and dwindling reliance on Paki supply routes ) a simpler reason?

omar r quraishi ‏@omar_quraishi: Hand of 1,800-years-old 'Fasting Buddha' - prized relic of Lahore Museum - broken during cleaning fixed by epoxy.



Refined Talibs at action. Since they cannot destroy like their Afgan counterparts, they are destroying them in another way. If they cannot keep up properly, at least they should give them to their friend China or sponsor Japan for preservation (I bet they will be manic at thought of giving them to India).

Shreeman wrote:Re. the divorce situation, I have a different theory. They days of foreign wars are gone for this generation. Vietnam style, the US likes and hates it foreign wars in alternate generations. Iraq/af/pak were enough. So the current script is from that ancient strategic manual called asterix and the goths. There is no plan, except to create more combatants. Create a fireline east of turkey/east europe. Let Russia/India/China worry about their stans (literally the houses) when the fire gets there. The kindling is complete, now they wait for the weather (25,000 shias from india waiting to fight for iraq) to be favorable.

Those shias will never get visas to fly out of India. That's an OIT we don't want.
Will suck us needlessly into the power struggle see-saw of the Islamic belt.

Rudradev, given the assumptions you have made the conclusions you reach are probably acceptable by and large.

But there are two important differences that I must highlight

1. The first is in the original assumptions about A, B and C aid
2. The second is in the fallout of stoppage of aid - I was not thinking so much about Indian dominance - but more in terms of which way the Paki state or army might fall/collapse (or not) if the US stops its aid.

Let me explain:

Here is how you have defined a, b, and c aid

A-aid) The obvious, big ticket items: F16s, AMRAAMs, TOWs, Cobras, P3Cs etc. This is direct military assistance, and the Pakis don't pay for it. It pays for itself in creating jobs and fattening contracts for US manufacturers.

B-aid) The opportunity benefit for TSPA afforded by giving essentially free weapons to Pakistan. Pakistan has a HUGE defence budget. If none of that budget is actually going towards buying weapons, then what is it used for? Essentially to pay for Fauji holdings in any number of industries and agricultural ventures, and maintain the Faujis (down to mid-level officers, Kernails etc.) in a snazzy lifestyle, making Fauj a great career choice for aspirational middle-class Pakis. If TSP actually had to buy weapons with its defence budget there would be much less money for all this.

C-aid) Money that the US, through opaque mechanisms, uses to basically buy Jernails at the corpse-commando level. This is basically cash in pocket tendered to gain political influence, though it moves through all kinds of GOAT-related channels. In the big scheme of things it is not a lot of money, but the US trusts that it keeps certain key jernails as loyal to them as possible. This kind of aid also includes student visas, US college admissions for kids, shopping trips for begums during "consultancy" junkets, etc.

I have no specific difference as regards A-aid

B-aid needs a closer look. B aid is not just pocket money for industries, real estate and business ventures, it is slush money for ISI to pay pensions of LeT shaheeds and fund the purchase of weapons (30,000 rifles captured by Indian army). Also keeping centrifuges running and kickbacks for crucial purchases. Tunneling and securing facilities for missile and nuclear silos etc. Removal of A- aid puts pressure on B-aid and with LeT cadres getting less money/family pensions for soosai- morale and the incentive goes down apart from less money for extravagant military preparations.

C-aid: Now this is the thing that I think needs updating from the traditional BRF viewpoint. Time was when the US could buy off most jernails for the candy of perks and visas. Newer information now suggests that about half the Paki army including officer cadre cannot be bought by this - or even if they accept the money, they are not giving the US the desired results. Half the Paki army has turned jihadi. They are no longer the "secular army" that the US and we on BRF believe it to be. In other words it is a myth that the US is actually managing to buy off jernails and a myth that things are getting done. They are not getting done as the US wants, but the US is continuing to mollycoddle the generals.

Oh sure there are some jernails who cooperate - but a huge percentage of the Paki army oficer cadre are now "converted/Talibanized" enough for them to be anti US.

The B and C benefits of A aid are helping jihad. That jihad is as much anti-US as anti India. The jihadi/Taliban generals who smile and take money from the US are still helping anti-US activities and as time passes the Pakistan army and the Taliban will have no serious ideological differences.

So what does all this mean?

It means, as you say, that A-aid is of no use. It may not hamper india but it certainly aids jihad which is as much anti-US as anti-India. For that reason alone, A-aid needs to come to an end and cannot be declared as "irrelevant"

B aid is a perk of A-aid and as I said, B aid again helps jihad a great deal and it is the Jihad that hits the US apart from India

C-aid is completely worthless. It does not amount to much in dollar terms but all it does is make people like us really believe that the US is "buying off" loyal Paki generals. That is simply not true. Paki generals are now less loyal to the US and many are more loyal to jihad. They have made jackasses out of the US

Finally, should the US stop giving F-16s and AMRAAMs and instead pay Pakistan for NVGs and helo gunships to fight the Taliban?

If the answer is "yes" then it would be ROTFL for me. Such aid will eventually only benefit the Taliban because the Paki army and Taliban are ultimately allies. But at least this aid will be less harmful to India - so I have fewer objections to "Anti-Taliban" aid to the shitistan army The US itself will get screwed more and i don't care

If the answer is "No, the US should not aid the Paki army at all. The US should neither give the Paki army anti India F-6s nor anti-Taliban gunships" - I think that is a much more sensible solution. This way both the army and the Taliban will starve. They will continue to be partially allies and partially adversaries - but with less money and lower tech AKphyrr alone. They will be more easily defeated/kept in check by either the US or India.

I have one more point to make, and I will make it in my next post because I think the fact stands out on its own and does not need a long explanatory post.

If the Pakistan army helps the Taliban will more aid to the Pakistan army benefit the Taliban more or less?

If half the Pakistan army is pro jihadi and half are pro US what guarantees are there that money paid to the Pakistan army goes only for pro-US causes and the Taliban get nothing.

Money and aid given to the Pakistan army gets used for either anti-India or pro-jihadi (anti US and India) activities. The Pakistan army is already NOT under control of the US. On BRF we are deluding ourselves with the myth that the US is buying off Pakistani army generals. For what? The US is getting nothing for it. We simply like to imagine that the great US has some mysterious deals that are working. No such deals are working. If the US is funding the army to be anti-India - it's not working well enough. If the US is funding the Paki army to be anti Taliban it's not working. If the US is funding the Pakistani army to be pro-US it's not working. If the US is funding the Paki army to stop fighting with India it's not working.

But the Pakistani army has consistently supported and fostered jihadi groups. And the US has consistnently funded the Pakistani army.

The US does not know what to do. I say, first stop paying the Paki army

Finally. contrary to our belief that the Pakstan army consist of generals who are eager to eat out of American hands, things have changed
http://idsa.in/system/files/monograph36.pdf
Religion as the Foundation of a Nation The Making and Unmaking of Pakistan
by P K Upadhyay

According to Pervez Hoodbhoy, religion (has) deeply divided the Pakistan military now. Perhaps it might be more accurate to think of it as two militaries. The first, -The Army One -headed by Gen.Kayani seeks to maintain the status quo and the Army’s pre-eminence in making national decisions. The second- The Army Two - is Allah’s army. This awaits a leader even as it launches attacks on Pakistani military installations, bases, top-level officers, soldiers, public places, mosques and police stations. Soldiers have been encouraged to turn their guns on to their colleagues, troops have been tricked into ambushes, and high-level officers have been assassinated. Allah’s army hopes to launch Religion as the Foundation of a Nation |95 its final blitzkrieg once the state of Pakistan has been sufficiently weakened by such attacks.176

What separates ‘Army-One’ and ‘ISI-One’ from ‘Army-Two’ and ‘ISI-Two’? This may not be immediately evident as both were reared on the ‘Two-Nation Theory’ and are thoroughly steeped in anti-Indianism since their early days in Army Cadet Colleges at Petaro and Hasan Abdal. They also share a deep-rooted contempt for Pakistani civilians. This attitude has resulted in roughly half of Pakistan’s history being that of direct military rule. Still, they are not the same. The One’ers are “soft Islamists” who are satisfied with a fuzzy belief that Islam provides solutions to everything, that occasional prayers and ritual fasting in Ramzan is sufficient, and that Sufis and Shias are bonafide Muslims rather than mushriks or apostates. They are not particularly interested in defending the Sunni states of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, or the GCC. But should a lucrative overseas posting come the way of an individual soldier or officer, well, that may be another matter. While having a dislike of US policies, they are not militantly anti-US.

Army-Two and ISI-Two, on the other hand, are soldier ideologues who have travelled further down the road of Islamism. Large numbers of them regularly travel to Raiwind, the headquarters of the Tabligh Jamaat and whose preachers are still allowed open access into the Army, despite restrictions. The Two’ers are stricter in matters of religious rituals, they insist that officers and their wives be segregated at army functions. They keep an eye out for officers who secretly drink alcohol, and how often they pray. Their political philosophy is that Islam and the state should be inseparable. Inspired by Maulana Abul Ala Maududi, who preached that 7th century Arab Islam provides a complete blueprint for society and politics, they see capturing state power as a means towards creating the ideal society along the lines of the medieval Medina state. Many Two’ers are beardless, hence hard to detect. They are fundamentally anti-science but computer-savvy. For them, modern technology is a tool of battle. Like the proverbial ostrich, the One’ers fiercely defend the myth of army unity. They dismiss mutineers as isolated individuals.

When the US pays the Paki army, they and we believe they are paying Army one. But Army two gets the funds as well

kmkraoind wrote:Shoaib Akhtar, 38, Ties Knot With 20-Year-Old

It seems to ward off criticism, Akhtar is now telling that the girl's age as 20, instead of 17. What a shameful creature. Wait for a decade, probably he might replicate Aisha moment (55-8).

Did they not claim when the news first broke out that no such thing was being planned. Anyways certain men have this fetish to marry very young girls. He is just following the foot steps.

shiv
The US armed Pakistanis against India imagining that the Pakistani army would support the US because US aid gave it the power to resist India. But the Pakistani army did not suport the US. It continued to support the Taliban.

Under these circumstances, which Einstein in any think tank can rest peacefully thinking that the Pakistani army, with nuclear bombs in its hands, is simply going to restrict the use of nukes against India alone and that the US and China are exempt?

Since 1999 more US troops have been killed by Taliban and Pakistani army than anyone else, and more Pakistan supporting forces have been killed by US drones and western forces than by anyone else.

While India is an enemy, so is the US and NATO.

Pakistan has nuclear weapons, which have been openly described as Islamic nuclear bombs. The Pakistan army is now Islamized and about 50% support the Taliban.

How will aid to the Pakistani army make the US safe? This is a question that

1. The US is avoiding because they don;t know what to do
2. US Rahrahians insist that the US "has secret plans"

I propose that the US has no plans. It is just a hope that the US has plans - a hope harboured by people who love and have deep faith in the US of A. Hope is not a plan.

In my analysis after observing US thinking and behavior they are is giving Pakistan retainer fees and thinks those Pakis may be use full in future against Indi, China, Russia, Iran, etc.