Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 25 Feb 2022 18:38

1. Russian action against UKR reveals not its strength but its inability to use any power other than force to influence its erstwhile province. This is pretty damning and reveals how irrelevant Russia is to the civilian world at large.
2. When we vote at UNSC I hope we remember Russia is not USSR and we carry any emotional baggage from the past. Our vote should be purely based on humanitarian values and national interest (and hopefully they don't conflict). But even before the vote, I am sure Shri Tirumurthy is busy getting the draft reworded to be acceptable to us.
3. There is no animosity between common people of the various CIS states. Redrawing of borders will not involve massive population transfers, much like how it was prior to Mughals in India, with various kings wanting to enlarge their kingdoms to get more tribute rather than evict and resettle people. Which is why we have so many linguistic minorities all over India, and temple inscriptions switch language every so often - usually in line with the administrative language of the ruling class.
4. Putin's claims of genocide and un-nazifying Ukraine are total BS. However with these actions, inter-ethnic conflicts may begin to emerge.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 25 Feb 2022 18:56

As much as the US and UQ would like India to vote against the Russians in the UN - remember that China has used language similar to the Russians wrt Bhutan, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh being part of Southern Tibet. None of the P4 (including Russia) would vote against China or try to sanction it when they try something similar. India is on its own.

rkirankr · Post by **rkirankr** » 25 Feb 2022 18:57

Yagnasri wrote:I do not see us voting against Russia, at least.

Why should we vote against Russia. How is Ukraine the Good guy. It provided tanks to Pakis, condemned us for Nuclear test.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Feb 2022 18:58

Gora's hubris & privilege!

India’s careful, avoid angering Putin at all costs response despite Russia’s blatant aggression vs Ukraine highlights that it remains unprepared to step up to major power responsibilities or be a dependable partner. Disappointing as well as short-sighted given rise of China. https://twitter.com/RichardHaass/status ... vzlZekPaWw

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 25 Feb 2022 19:06

What I don't get is why should democratic^tm West expect support from "Hindu nationalist fascist totes Nazi supporting RSS muslim genocidal" Mudi anyway? Didn't he personally genocide minorities in early '02 and is still genociding them in kashmir. What's more is that India isn't even a democracy anymore so India's vote doesn't even count.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 25 Feb 2022 19:10

^ brilliant

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Feb 2022 19:13

m_saini wrote:What I don't get is why should democratic^tm West expect support from "Hindu nationalist fascist totes Nazi supporting RSS muslim genocidal" Mudi anyway? Didn't he personally genocide minorities in early '02 and is still genociding them in kashmir. What's more is that India isn't even a democracy anymore so India's vote doesn't even count.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 25 Feb 2022 19:16

rkirankr wrote:
Yagnasri wrote:I do not see us voting against Russia, at least.
Why should we vote against Russia. How is Ukraine the Good guy. It provided tanks to Pakis, condemned us for Nuclear test.

Nuke test happened in 1998 and much happened after that. Ukie gave us engines. France gave Pakistan submarines. US gave Pakistan F-16s. China gave India oxygen concentrators (all at substantial prices). That is how the world works.

This kind of flagrant violation of sovereignty and causing needless deaths should not be encouraged. No need to support the Russians openly and piss off all the others (3 NATO members in P5, please don't forget, including our new friend France). But we can certainly ensure the draft is correctly worded, communicates concern and calls for ending the hostilities. We don't need to support sanctions.

A Deshmukh · Post by **A Deshmukh** » 25 Feb 2022 19:24

we are fighting terrorists everyday who are supplied by Chinese guns and American night vision goggles supported by TSP who is strengthened by Ukrainian tanks.

can someone tell me why should we be sympathetic to Ukrainian cause?

Amrica + UKr themselves are responsible for this mess.
UKr wanted to be part of NATO, meaning American missiles targeting Russia. They are paying the price for their choices.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 25 Feb 2022 19:27

@MeghUpdatess : EU to freeze personal assets of Putin and Lavrov (n-tv) (assuming they still have assets left

)

Looking at the extent of sanctions not just personal but against the top military brass, Russ has taken this to a totally new and unpredictable level. Uncle and aunties are clearly p!ssed. It is hard to believe that they did not anticipate the extent of damage beyond military outcome. Very interesting times ahead..

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 25 Feb 2022 19:27

We are nobody to encourage Russia , we can only hurt our interests, US is not going ask for Pakis to return F16s Nukes, independent Baluchistan and leave occupied POK. There are Pakistani atrocities in all these areas and Afganistan is de facto Pakistani occupation via Taliban. Why should India alone take a moral stand harmful to us while other fund the BIF. Our vote is not going to stop the Russian military. US is not even sending its stealth fighters and bombers immune from Russian radar into the warzone.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Feb 2022 19:31

IndraD wrote:Gora's hubris & privilege!

India’s careful, avoid angering Putin at all costs response despite Russia’s blatant aggression vs Ukraine highlights that it remains unprepared to step up to major power responsibilities or be a dependable partner. Disappointing as well as short-sighted given rise of China. https://twitter.com/RichardHaass/status ... vzlZekPaWw

Taking sides doesn’t pay unless it advances India’s own interests and overall security.

With the passage of time, the remnants of India's colonial hangovers and self created commie led dua salam ghosts from the past are, with each passing day, mattering less and less to Modi's India.

ukraine is a west led and mostly US created strategic disaster that has gone horribly wrong. biden mama seems frozen like a deer caught in the headlights. These syria-eyraq bombing and drone pushing braggarts haven't the b@!!$ to take on putin and his forces. EU is already badly split due to the gas supply equation.

The goras are panicked at the thought of "what if putin brings the fight home to mainland europe and prefers to fight there".

How can we forget that these very same poison spitting goras did nothing when the cheenis invaded Indian territory because they were so greedily fixated on their profit making ventures in cheeni land.

we have no dog in a fracas that is so far removed from Indian areas of influence and Jaishankar has so very rightly and publicly called them out on their double standards at the munich meeting.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 25 Feb 2022 19:32

Aditya_V wrote:We are nobody to encourage Russia , we can only hurt our interests, US is not going ask for Pakis to return F16s Nukes, independent Baluchistan and leave occupied POK. There are Pakistani atrocities in all these areas and Afganistan is de facto Pakistani occupation via Taliban. Why should India alone take a moral stand harmful to us while other fund the BIF. Our vote is not going to stop the Russian military. US is not even sending its stealth fighters and bombers immune from Russian radar into the warzone.

Hold it there. Chances are that US will get no where with this. If china plays it cards well, US will stand small as a result of this conflict. EU will come to sense within 20 days. US sending this and that aircraft is useless as they will never engage Russian fighters. Vlad is in terrible mood.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 25 Feb 2022 19:33

m_saini wrote:From CNN:

“We are also targeting Russian elites by curbing their deposits so that they cannot hide their money anymore in safe havens in Europe,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
Wait how is this a bad thing for Russia? Hope EU extends this to India as well

That is an open admission that Europe provides safe havens for money, and that Europen banks collude to hide money. Ethics? Bah.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Feb 2022 19:38

Aditya_V wrote:We are nobody to encourage Russia , we can only hurt our interests, US is not going ask for Pakis to return F16s Nukes, independent Baluchistan and leave occupied POK. There are Pakistani atrocities in all these areas and Afganistan is de facto Pakistani occupation via Taliban. Why should India alone take a moral stand harmful to us while other fund the BIF. Our vote is not going to stop the Russian military. US is not even sending its stealth fighters and bombers immune from Russian radar into the warzone.

we have legitimate interests on both sides of the divide.

It is not in India's interest to get in the middle of a pissing contest.

thank god that slippery singh is in his dotage and the mafia famiglia is trying to find a rat hole for itself to hide in.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 25 Feb 2022 19:40

Moment of opportunity for india
Have a good MEA team (ahem..)
Shed old non-alignment
Have an informed (non) alignment

Personally (I'd say):

Talk to France
See what could be leveraged
Have a pro russia tilt to start with and see what happens
Be prepared to vote with Russia

syam · Post by **syam** » 25 Feb 2022 19:42

#BREAKING: Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone talk with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Xi said China supports the Russian side in solving the issue through negotiation with the Ukrainian side.

I don't think our vote is necessary here. We are nobody in this conflict and in general. We are not even in G7 ffs. At best, we will ask for peaceful negotiations b/w Nato and Russia. Just skip it with usual white noise about peace and all that jazz.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 25 Feb 2022 19:44

Deans wrote:
williams wrote:So it is a bit confusing. Can't a regime change be done in a much less expensive means?
Russia's actions are similar to Georgia 2008. 4 day war, after which Georgia realised that Russia's pre-war demands were actually very reasonable.
They lost part of their country (South Ossetia) and suffered enough military and economic damage to the rest of it that voters would never again
choose someone who is Anti Russia. Regime change in Ukraine will probably happen through elections, after the war.

Nothing like the population accepting Russian suzerainty. It becomes harder for the mischief makers (a.k.a NATO) to make trouble.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Feb 2022 19:50

wow, even the taliban is advocating peace

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Feb 2022 19:53

rkirankr · Post by **rkirankr** » 25 Feb 2022 19:55

yensoy wrote:
rkirankr wrote: Why should we vote against Russia. How is Ukraine the Good guy. It provided tanks to Pakis, condemned us for Nuclear test.
Nuke test happened in 1998 and much happened after that. Ukie gave us engines. France gave Pakistan submarines. US gave Pakistan F-16s. China gave India oxygen concentrators (all at substantial prices). That is how the world works.

This kind of flagrant violation of sovereignty and causing needless deaths should not be encouraged. No need to support the Russians openly and piss off all the others (3 NATO members in P5, please don't forget, including our new friend France). But we can certainly ensure the draft is correctly worded, communicates concern and calls for ending the hostilities. We don't need to support sanctions.

No need to support openly or oppose openly. Just look at which all countries, so called Western civilization destroyed after WW2. Iraq itself is a tragedy, syria, Libya, Afghanistan.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 25 Feb 2022 20:01

India has to declare that any sanctions that are NOT endorsed by SC are to be ignored by India. we need nerves of steel.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 25 Feb 2022 20:05

rsingh wrote:India has to declare that any sanctions that are NOT endorsed by SC are to be ignored by India. we need nerves of steel.

+108

Or by the 2/3rd majority in UNGA. Not sure if that could be obtained by ukr and it's 4 fathers.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 25 Feb 2022 20:06

achy: G2 is day dream of sino paid lifafa think tanks in USA. It is a fundamentally flawed concept. What does US get if it leaves asia to China? All it will do is to facilitate China's unabated rise albeit at faster pace. And they will become the top dog much before current projection implies. Seems like a stupid bargain for the US.

Yes, exactly, but that is not stopping the US from working with China right now. Going by past history, US is likely to make stupid mistakes before it corrects course, so this G2 nonsense will continue until US pulls back -- there is no indication such a thing is happening yet.

US basic containment strategy is to slow china's growth and push it towards demographic cliff before it attains capability to shape new world order. how does G2 strategy fit in this or in any other scheme ?

G2 is DOA...

US can have all the wet dreams it wants, like the current one to push NATO into Russia, but that may or may not translate into reality. US's commercial relationship with China has driven US markets for 40 years, and US and China both have a knife at each other's throats, so how exactly is the US going to implement this containment strategy without destroying its economy?

So no, G2 is not quite DOA. China is not sitting on its hands either, and the US has few miltary allies outside the EU and scandinavia and the anglo-saxon enclaves.

I don't see why the Indian govt. is dhoti shivering about asking the "west" to shove its sanctions where the sun don't shine. Have we already forgotten how these oiseaules in the USA worked hard to destroy Indian economy in the UN by dumping their carbon emissions on India?

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 25 Feb 2022 20:07

chetak wrote:...

C-Man, YukRainian president on an India trip in 2010's gave his word that his nation sought to be a reliable defense partner. Yet, in 2013 YukRain signed a 110 MBT deal and in 2017, a 100-T84 deal with bakistan. Earlier, in 2002, they had supplied the engines for al-khaleed in a deal worth $100M.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 25 Feb 2022 20:16

Apologies for taking an openly anti-YukRain stand but there's a reason.

Did you know: Ukraine had condemned India after the 1998 Nuclear tests, voted against India at the UNSC
https://www.opindia.com/2022/02/ukraine ... a-in-1998/

On Thursday, Ukrainian Ambassador to India Igor Polikha urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to play a more significant role in de-escalating the tensions with Russia as Modi and Putin share a mutual respect.

The ties between Ukraine and India has seen ups and downs, especially after India decided to go nuclear. It is important to remember that Ukraine was one of those countries that vehemently opposed India’s nuclear tests in 1998 and had condemned India’s actions at the security council following the 1998 nuclear test.

Twenty-two years after taking a stand that contradicts India’s security and strategic objectives, Ukraine today wants India to stand behind them and talk to Russians to end the humiliation being meted out upon them.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 25 Feb 2022 20:17

The US only likes vassal states not partners in anything, so if the thought is sucking up to the US will have positive consequences for India, dream on.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 25 Feb 2022 20:18

And, then there's Roos.

The erstwhile Soviet Union had vetoed several moves made against India in the UN Security Council on the Kashmir issue. Last year, after India scrapped Article 370 to the Indian constitution that extended special status to Jammu and Kashmir, Russia described the move as India’s internal matter.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 25 Feb 2022 20:19

rsingh wrote:India has to declare that any sanctions that are NOT endorsed by SC are to be ignored by India. we need nerves of steel.

Obviously sanctions won't be endorsed by UNSC. Russia has veto and China will vote with them.

The question is what kind of resolution is tabled, and whether we support, oppose or abstain. I think we should ensure the wording of resolution is general enough that it calls for peace, cessation of hostilities, full troop pullback and comprehensive discussion of concerned parties, and we can vote for this. But if it is to humiliate Russia, better to abstain.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 25 Feb 2022 20:21

anupmisra wrote:Apologies for taking an openly anti-YukRain stand but there's a reason.

No apology is necessary. India is not anti-Ukraine or anti-Russia.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 25 Feb 2022 20:28

Rakesh wrote:India is not anti-Ukraine or anti-Russia.

India should follow its long-term strategic objectives and goals.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 25 Feb 2022 20:38

Agree anupmisra-ji.

Below is a very important lesson to learn for India....

https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1 ... 0SuVNZiJ6w ---> Zelensky takes aim at US in Friday morning address: "This morning, we are defending our country alone. Just like yesterday, the most powerful country in the world looked on from a distance.”

VIDEO: https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1497 ... 0SuVNZiJ6w ---> "I have asked 27 European leaders whether Ukraine will be in NATO .... Everyone is afraid, no one answers," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a late night speech.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 25 Feb 2022 20:48

^ Rakesh ji, humbly India had learnt that lesson decades ago.

The wise words of the Indian Defence minister from eons past, Shri Yashwant Rao Chavan , have been quoted on this forum time and again - 'India is alone'

I hate these Pakistanis

The dangerous process of encirclement of India by hostile countries is complete. The leading powers of the UN, including the USSR (then the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, now Russia), are not with us on (the) Kashmir issue. We are tragically alone.

India was, is and should remain Pro-India. Period.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 25 Feb 2022 20:51

mody wrote:WION has been airing news about the crisis since past 1 month, with very pronounced anti-Russia stand. Generally WION and Timesnow are considered pro-BJP and pro India, so a anti-Russia stand on both seems to show which way the government is tilting. Even DD kind of has a slightly anti-Russia stand, prior to the events of this week. However, now the coverage from DD seems to be a little more balanced. However, today morning there was a supposed military expert on the channel giving an extremely pro-Ukraine view. Republic, another pro-BJP channel also has been a bit more balanced.

Does not have to be government tilt. Free media or lightly controlled media has its own advantage as well. Such sentiments can be leveraged to play geopolitical hardball. There is no reason why India has to send any clear message to anyone without deriving any advantage. Sending multiple signals is the best for now.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 25 Feb 2022 20:51

Manish_P wrote:^ Rakesh ji, humbly India had learnt that lesson decades ago.

The wise words of the Indian Defence minister from eons past, Shri Yashwant Rao Chavan , have been quoted on this forum time and again - 'India is alone'

I hate these Pakistanis

The dangerous process of encirclement of India by hostile countries is complete. The leading powers of the UN, including the USSR (then the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, now Russia), are not with us on (the) Kashmir issue. We are tragically alone.
India was, is and should remain Pro-India. Period.

Very Profound. Whichever way we vote, we need something in return.

So far, there is no articulation on either tactical or strategic objectives for this vote.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 25 Feb 2022 21:04

Rakesh wrote:VIDEO: https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1497 ... 0SuVNZiJ6w ---> "I have asked 27 European leaders whether Ukraine will be in NATO .... Everyone is afraid, no one answers," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a late night speech.

I believe that this is what started the Russian aggression in the first place - first Georgia, then Crimea, and now Yukrain. Ex-Soviet republics and ex-Warsaw pact countries joining NATO triggered the fear. This is despite Baker's promises to Yeltsin after the breakup of the USSR and the Warsaw pact that this would never happen and that NATO would not expand. Now Russia feels that it has a border with NATO.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 25 Feb 2022 21:08

Manish_P wrote:^ Rakesh ji, humbly India had learnt that lesson decades ago
....
India was, is and should remain Pro-India. Period.

Nice post Manish-ji. Well said.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 25 Feb 2022 21:16

For us to come out in open condemnation of Russia now would mean that we had joined the club of second-rate US condoms of which Ukraine itself is a member, and for which Ukraine itself is now paying the price.

In 1991, the newly independent Ukraine gave up its nukes under the Minsk agreement (essentially in the belief that it would henceforth become Unkil's munna).

In 1998, Ukraine could have kept its mouth shut... but it just had to join the chorus of small-time, self-righteous countries echoing Bill Kill-ton's call to condemn India's nuclear tests. Ironically, apart from US and China, it was only the second-rate condoms of the US (Australia, Norway etc) who joined in the condemnation. UK and France both did NOT condemn India. Russia, of course, stood by India.

Today the Ukraine condom lies in tatters, having never received any protection under the Minsk agreement and never received actual NATO membership (despite all its pathetic munna-giri).

But now the US wants India to behave like that exact same kind of condom. No guarantees, no P5 membership, no alliance, no mutual defense pact to put us in the Class-A countries of the Western Alliance. But just out of sheer self-righteousness we should join the shrill chorus of second-rate condom states "condemning" Russian aggression. If we did that, it would prove that we had learned exactly NOTHING from the experience of Ukraine itself!!

I cannot believe the hubris of that Richard Haass-hole trying to psych us into loud condemnation of Russia by saying we're not "behaving like a great power". What's his definition of a "great power" then? Ukraine?

Haaaack thhhooooooooooooo.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 25 Feb 2022 21:16

Rakesh wrote:Agree anupmisra-ji.

VIDEO: https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1497 ... 0SuVNZiJ6w ---> "I have asked 27 European leaders whether Ukraine will be in NATO .... Everyone is afraid, no one answers," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a late night speech.

One of the theories till last week was that “Putin can take a part of Ukraine but then what ever remains would de facto join NATO which he did not want”

Putin has effectively called out this bluff , Europe has no appetite for a hot war.

Ukraine is now learning a lesson we learned in 62 that ‘no one will help’

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 25 Feb 2022 21:17

GShankar wrote:…..Whichever way we vote, we need something in return.

So far, there is no articulation on either tactical or strategic objectives for this vote.

I think you’ve hit the nail on the head. The government may be well aware of its goals, but here in the public space I see a lack of clarity. In this I include commentators, journalists, and mango men. FWIW, I include myself amongst the mango men (on BR and elsewhere) struggling to answer a basic - what are our interests so that we should accordingly?

It’s all very well to say we should vote as per our goals. But what are these goals and are they achievable given the current geopolitical reality? Should we take an aggressive yea or no stance? Or stick to the middle path, abstain? really pleasing no one and offending no one?