bala wrote: ↑29 Jul 2025 01:37
After Op Sindoor, India has established the quadrilateral tussle between R, C, I and U. Eurotards are really under NATO of U. Of the quadrilateral, U and R are the strongest in terms of military prowess. R now has more experience in actual wars and some say that U is not ready for protracted wars as shown in Ukraine which is mostly defensive posture for U. Russia realized after Op Sindoor I's capability and immediately called for R I C unity against U. The U is worried about such an alliance. R got C backing for Ukraine, but C is not supplying any equipment to R. R deftly poached North Korea (NK) away from C in its Ukraine fight. NK ditched China Beidou and adopted Russian GLONASS system. The US hope of using I against C like a pawn is now on shaky grounds. There is a deep worry within U that I is leapfrogging in the military domain and could with R become invincible. The brahmos has put a fear factor and Akash Teer of India is more effective than Israel's Iron dome. Indian Navy demonstrated who is the boss in Indian Ocean. C has scaled back its belligerence on I and is more circumspect whether it can hold on to Tibet anymore. Phillippines with Brahmos is a huge headache for C. If Vietnam (which has thrashed C once) has brahmos then C will double sweat.
Many people are fooled by C and its military strength. It turns out C is a hollywood facade pretending to be a great power when clearly numbers don't imply military strength. Much of C equipment is a copy of other nations equipment, firstly starting with the Soviet Union and then espionage of U equipment. All C copies are one big rubbish heap that don't work in actual combat situation. Much of their gee whiz eqipment has not been battle tested and also the PLA is ill prepared in using them. The PLA itself has been devasted in top leadership by CCP and is in no mood to fight. In Op Sindoor and Iran bombing, C equipment has been conclusively proven to be bad copies and don't work one bit. In military might, poor equipment means that it would become a turkey shoot in actual warfare and C knows that numbers will become glorified rubbish heaps in war. Once the AD is taken out you are effectively nude like Israel has shown with Iran. C is currently looking at an economic debacle considering the tariff play of U. Things are not that great for C which may resort to some irrational move which could be their unravelling as a nation.
Grok's analysis
The user's query presents a detailed geopolitical opinion on the dynamics among Russia (R), China (C), India (I), and the United States (U), framed around recent events like Operation Sindoor and broader military-economic trends. It portrays India and Russia as ascending powers, the US as strategically concerned, and China as overrated and vulnerable. I'll analyze this narrative point by point, drawing on available information to substantiate, qualify, or refute claims. Where relevant, I'll highlight balanced perspectives from diverse sources, including Western, Indian, Chinese, and international analyses, to avoid bias. Note that military assessments often involve speculation, as real-world combat performance can differ from peacetime evaluations.
Understanding Operation Sindoor and the "Quadrilateral Tussle"
Operation Sindoor refers to India's military strikes launched on May 7, 2025, targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan, including facilities linked to groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed. This was a punitive response to a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, involving missiles, drones, and air defense systems, marking an evolution in India's "offensive defense" doctrine. It showcased indigenous systems like BrahMos missiles and the Akashteer air defense network, reportedly achieving high success rates against Pakistani countermeasures. The operation has been credited with deterring escalation and highlighting vulnerabilities in Pakistan's Chinese-supplied equipment, such as drones and air defenses.
The "quadrilateral tussle" between R, C, I, and U appears to describe informal power competition among these major players, distinct from formal groupings like the QUAD (US-India-Japan-Australia). Post-Sindoor, it has intensified discussions on alliances, with Russia pushing for revived Russia-India-China (RIC) cooperation to counter US influence. India has shown openness to RIC revival in a "mutually convenient manner," amid a relative thaw in Sino-Indian ties, but remains aligned with the US on issues like Indo-Pacific security. The US views this potential RIC bloc as a concern, especially as it could dilute efforts to use India as a counterweight to China.
European nations ("Eurotards" in the query—a derogatory term) are indeed heavily reliant on US-led NATO for security, particularly in the Ukraine conflict, where the US has provided the bulk of aid while Europe focuses on defensive postures.
Military Prowess: US vs. Russia, and India's Rise
The claim that the US and Russia are the strongest militarily aligns with global rankings (e.g., US has superior power projection and technology; Russia excels in nuclear arsenal and ground warfare experience). Russia's Ukraine experience has given it practical insights into protracted warfare, including drone usage and attrition, while the US has adopted a supportive, non-combat role there—leading some analysts to question US readiness for high-intensity, sustained conflicts due to supply chain vulnerabilities and political constraints.
India's military "leapfrogging" is evident in reforms like theater commands and indigenous tech (e.g., BrahMos, Akashteer), accelerated post-Sindoor. US concerns exist about India's growing autonomy and potential Russia-India alignment making them "invincible," but this is more about strategic balancing than outright worry—US-India ties remain strong via deals like iCET. The US hope of "using I against C like a pawn" is shaky due to India's non-aligned stance, though it participates in QUAD to hedge against China.
Key Indian systems:
BrahMos: A supersonic cruise missile (joint India-Russia) instilling "fear" in adversaries; exports to Philippines (with bases facing South China Sea) have heightened China's concerns in disputed waters.
Akashteer: India's automated air defense, compared favorably to Israel's Iron Dome for its AI integration and success in Sindoor (100% drone kill rate vs. Iron Dome's ~90-96%). It's more versatile for diverse threats like drones and missiles.
Indian Navy: Demonstrated dominance in the Indian Ocean through anti-piracy ops and fleet expansion (e.g., new submarines, destroyers), positioning itself as a net security provider against Chinese incursions.
China has indeed scaled back overt belligerence toward India post-2020 clashes, focusing on diplomacy amid Tibet sensitivities—Beijing views Indian support for the Dalai Lama as interference and questions its hold on Tibet. If Vietnam (which defeated China in 1979) acquires BrahMos, it could amplify pressure on China in the South China Sea; a $700M deal is nearing finalization.
Russia's Ukraine Dynamics and Alliances
Russia received diplomatic backing from China on Ukraine but not direct equipment—Beijing supplies dual-use components (e.g., drone engines, chemicals) covertly to Russia's industry, avoiding overt arms to evade sanctions. Russia has "poached" North Korea for Ukraine support (e.g., artillery shells), and NK missiles reportedly use Russia's GLONASS over China's Beidou for guidance, a choice made earlier but reinforced recently.
China's Military: Facade or Force?
The narrative's critique of China as a "Hollywood facade" is partially substantiated but overstated. China's military relies heavily on copies (e.g., J-20 from US F-35 blueprints, naval drones from Western designs), often via espionage, leading to questions about quality and integration. Much equipment lacks battle-testing, and the PLA faces readiness issues, including poor leadership due to Xi's purges (e.g., ousting generals like Miao Hua and shrinking the Central Military Commission). In Operation Sindoor, Pakistani use of Chinese gear (e.g., drones) reportedly underperformed. The June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict (12-day war) exposed Iranian defenses—some analysts speculate Chinese-supplied systems (denied by Beijing) failed against Israeli strikes, highlighting vulnerabilities like air defense gaps.
However, numbers matter: China's vast arsenal and rapid modernization could overwhelm in quantity, though quality gaps (e.g., untested hypersonics) risk "turkey shoots" in peer conflicts. Purges aim to root out corruption but may erode morale.
Economic Pressures on China
China faces an "economic debacle" from 2025 US tariffs (up to 30% on Chinese imports, with retaliation), exacerbating slowdowns—US firms cut investments to record lows, and talks failed to pause escalations. This could prompt irrational moves (e.g., escalation in Taiwan or SCS), but Beijing's strategy emphasizes resilience via domestic innovation.
Overall, the narrative captures real shifts (e.g., India's assertiveness, China's vulnerabilities) but exaggerates China's weakness—Beijing remains a formidable player. Future irrationality is possible but not inevitable, as diplomacy (e.g., RIC) offers outlets.