The problem with this strategy is that if the first crap fails to stick, the crap thrower very quickly loses credibility and his crap the "stickyness" property.Gus wrote:they are thinking they are doing the 'throwing crap to see if something sticks' strategy, but in their stupidity and enthu, no realising that they are the ones seen with hand full of crap.
What will Ar nab say now? The nation wants to know. Girija Vyas, Bahuguna Joshi et al have a big egg on their disgusting faces. WIll MSM discuss this letter. I guess they wont.Gus wrote:they are thinking they are doing the 'throwing crap to see if something sticks' strategy, but in their stupidity and enthu, no realising that they are the ones seen with hand full of crap.
The opinion poll suggests that 90% of Indian corporates prefer the Opposition party. The private sector businessman supports the current Opposition party.
A year ago, I was told that Modi won't be a national candidate, but I thought he will be the national candidate. Six months ago, I was told that he won't have national appeal, but I thought he will have national appeal. What's impressive about Gujarat is its investment-driven growth, and it's not based on one sector. Modi is an activist; there is no energy problem in the state, and the bureaucracy is result-oriented.
Nice rhymes!Narendra Modi wrote:"Yeah log rail me khate hain, khel mein khate hain. Khet mein khate hain, ret me bhi khate hain"
The Modi effect: Tea-sellers of Agra raise their voice against Samajwadi Party
SIRAJ QURESHI AGRA, NOVEMBER 19, 2013 | UPDATED 22:27 IST
The tea-sellers of Agra have united against Samajwadi Party leader Naresh Agarwal's statement that tea-sellers cannot run the nation. The credit for this goes to the BJP workers, who have taken a cue from Naresh Agarwal's statement and brought the tea-sellers of the town together just before BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi's Agra rally on November 21.
Modi adds flavour to Agarwal's storm in a tea cup
Talking to India Today, Bihari Lal, a tea-seller who makes his livelihood selling tea at the BSNL stadium in the cantonment, asked if Naresh Agarwal believes that tea-sellers aren't human? He said that if a person works hard and reaches a high position in society, people are bound to get jealous of him and Naresh Agarwal is jealous of Modi, nothing more. Praising Modi, he said that Modi has not forgotten his days of poverty and nobody can stop him from becoming the prime minister now.
Jeetu, a tea-seller who works out of a wooden stall in the loha mandi area of the town said, "Since I heard that Narendra Modi used to sell tea and is now going to become the Prime Minister of India, it has given me so much pride that I am now charging a rupee less on a cup of tea till Modi wins the elections."
Kamal, a tea-seller from Delhi Gate, has even named his tea stall as 'NaMo Tea Stall' and is selling tea on discount to his patrons, asking them to help Modi win the elections. He said that the tea-sellers of Agra will soon meet and form a strategy to help Modi win the elections.
BJP leader Keshav Dixit told India Today that Modi's November 21 Agra rally will be historic and never before will UP have seen such a huge turnout. He said that the tea-sellers of Agra should be commended for taking a firm stand against Naresh Agarwal's statement and opposing the Samajwadi party. He said that no amount of criticism can stop Modi from becoming the prime minister now.
Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/the- ... 25562.html
Good post. Keep posting the reality check instead of 80 in UP and 40 in Bihar with a 340 in India type news. That is also good but we need to be on the ground.muraliravi wrote:Well, its prediction season on Namo thread. Let me throw in my 2 paise.
Karnataka Congress will still have a honey moon period. In the bye elections, we expected that tacit alliance with jds and yeddy will do wonders for bjp, we saw what happened. In Haryana, congress maybe on a weak wicket, but still better than the bjp and inld any day in terms of cadre and organization.
Jharkhand, even if they get marandi back, a cong-jmm alliance will do good (in 2004 they swept it, 2009 bjp did well becos jmm-cong did not ally).
In andhra i have no clue what will happen, BJP wont win anything is my guess.
So the recipe for success for Namo is get these alliances intact, get 45 seats in UP and Bihar. Maybe even 55. Becos I may have been a little charitable here in may states. So i expect around 120 without UP and Bihar for BJP. So they need 50 min in UP + Bihar to form govt.
As far as congress is concerned, alliance or no alliance, they wont get more than 2 seats in Bihar. The 25 seats in Andhra region also seems gone. If they do some magic in Telangana, they may get 7-8 seats in the full state. In UP as of now they cant get more than 5 seats. So overall only 15 seats in these 3 states for them.
If BJP does not get its alliances right, congress can hope to get 116+15 = 131 seats overall. If BJP gets its alliances, Congress will be within 115-120 seats.
The only outlier to this analysis is a congress-bsp alliance.
But the table should clearly show you that Karnataka is the only state that is giving the congress more than 20 seats if BJP does not get that state right. A state where BJP could have very well killed the congress permanently, what a blunder, i cant stop wondering what they were thinking.
).Well, I am not sure if they can win both seats in Jammu area. They may get one.SBajwa wrote:Muraliravi
Your election prediction seems to be little biased towards congress.
BJP (or their supporters) will win both Jammu and Udhampur seats in 2014.
Pawan Bansal (the railway minister who had to resign due to corruption) will NOT win the Chandigarh seat now.!
Punjab will have at least 3 BJP seats while its allies will have at least +5 MP seats so minimum of 8/13 in Punjab.
You are predicting that Congress will win 6 seats in Gujarat., seems too much. I think all 26 seats will go to BJP.
You are giving too much weightage to Congress in Assam, Kerala, Odisha and West Bengal! but good conservative predictions!
That is the key, but they also seem to be a little weak in northern India. They can improve in Haryana, seal the gaps in punjab and himachal. Go for the kill in delhi. All this can yield them 7-8 seats more and reduce congress by 7-8 seats.Muppalla wrote:
Good post. Keep posting the reality check instead of 80 in UP and 40 in Bihar with a 340 in India type news. That is also good but we need to be on the ground.
The key to increase in BJP numbers is UP+Bihar. The key to decrease in INC numbers is Karnataka (not AP for a change
Something I've always wondered about: why do all the wrong ch^&thiyas file the defamation cases, while the ones who are genuinely hounded dont. Amit Shah should be filing one against Cobrapost. VK Singh against Shekar Gupta, Sid Varadarajan etc. Instead we have Sreekumar filing against Modi & corrupt Tejinder Singh against VK SinghHari Seldon wrote:defamation case against NM now...
Ex-cop RB Sreekumar files defamation complaint against Modi and Rajnath
Definitely an attempt to drag NM into a bunch of court cases, clearly... we'll have to see how he handles this. Should file counter cases left right and centre against dynasty and minions too...
keep in mind that all the surveys in Odisha were before the cyclone. I expect BJD to stay strong in the coastal area. Both BJP and Cong are relatively stronger in Western Odisha. Local bodies elections in Western Odisha will take place in another few days. I think that will clear up the picture.muraliravi wrote:Well, I am not sure if they can win both seats in Jammu area. They may get one.SBajwa wrote:Muraliravi
Your election prediction seems to be little biased towards congress.
BJP (or their supporters) will win both Jammu and Udhampur seats in 2014.
Pawan Bansal (the railway minister who had to resign due to corruption) will NOT win the Chandigarh seat now.!
Punjab will have at least 3 BJP seats while its allies will have at least +5 MP seats so minimum of 8/13 in Punjab.
You are predicting that Congress will win 6 seats in Gujarat., seems too much. I think all 26 seats will go to BJP.
You are giving too much weightage to Congress in Assam, Kerala, Odisha and West Bengal! but good conservative predictions!
Chandigarh is not as easy as you think. There are plenty of local reports and even in tribune and punjab kesari where the city dominated by govt employees will continue to vote for congress, and they dont care a damn if he is corrupt.
I am only putting BJP seats here, punjab BJP usually contests only 3-4 seats, munna ji has put up some ground level news earlier, check that. 3 may be a little tough.
Gujarat: Modi has been CM since 2001. Tell me when BJP crossed 15 seats. In 2004 it was 14, 2009 it was 15. Even in the ramjanambhoomi peak time, they got 21. I doubt if they can cross that number. you will be surprised to see that there are some seats in gujarat which bjp is still not able to breach.
Assam: Unless BJP is not able to convince the voters that Tarun Gogoi is faking his pro hindu stance, i doubt you will see any decrease in congress tally. In kerala, congress will easily win 8 seats just based on pure demographics, in states with such huge muslim and x-tian population, it is difficult to decimate the congress to less than that.
On orissa, please take an average of all the surveys done in the last 6 months, be it ndtv, ibn, times now, aaj tak (using, c-voter, cfore, nielson etc..), cong is getting anywhere between 8 and 9 seats in orissa. We cant expect only BJP to be doing the right things, congress will also get some things right for themselves.
West Bengal, in fact I put the figure on the lower side, again take an average of all surveys, you will find congress getting some seats.
BJP is likely to win both seats in the Jammu region (Udhampur and Jammu). After the Kishtwar riots, the Hindus are furious with both the National Conference and the Congress. In fact, with some luck, the BJP can win even Ladakh seat, since the LUDF has merged with the BJP.muraliravi wrote: Well, I am not sure if they can win both seats in Jammu area. They may get one.
In Assam, the BJP is certain in only one seat - Mangaldoi. The former state BJP president, Ramen Deka, is comfortably placed in Mangaldoi. All the rest depends on other factors. Gauhati, at first sight, looks like a safe seat for the BJP, and they have their firebrand, the sitting MP Bijoya Chakrabarti, who has worked for her constituency, but things could become dicey if Himanta Biswa Sarma contests for the Congress. Similarly, another supposedly safe seat for the BJP, Silchar, has become tricky for the BJP with the entry of Gautam Roy from the Congress. The BJP's real stronghold, Nagaon, could become problematic, if Prafulla Kumar Mahanta contests for the AGP. The BJP has no real chance in Diphu, Dhubri, and Kokrajhar. Even Lakhimpur and Barpeta are almost impossible for the BJP - it has no presence in the tribes bordering Arunachal Pradesh, or among the Bodos. Kaliabor traditionally features a fight between the Congress and the AGP - BJP performance there has never been great, and it is the chief minister's brother's constituency. Karimganj depends on how the Muslims vote (Muslims constitute roughly 50% of the voters here), and is too dicey to predict. That leaves only Tezpur, Jorhat, and Dibrugarh. All three offer decent chances for the BJP, which has good candidates for all of them. If there is a slight Modi wave, the BJP could get about 5-6 seats in Assam, and in fact, if it allies with a Bodo party, may get upto 8 seats (including allied seats). If the BJP is unlucky, then they could be reduced to 1-2 seats.Assam: Unless BJP is not able to convince the voters that Tarun Gogoi is faking his pro hindu stance, i doubt you will see any decrease in congress tally.
I say its the effect of good company.ramana wrote:SHQ was asking today morning 'Why cant a tea seller rise to be the PM?'
No BR/VR influence.
This is the 2nd such report that I am seeing today. The first one was by Sanjay Singh of First post. But that once did not suggest the size of the crowds.Shonu wrote:Modi charm fading in Madhya Pradesh?
Is this the sickular media or is there any truth to it?
His initial speeches were good and generated hope. He is now into "they are trying to get Modi" stuff.subhamoy.das wrote:Too many rallies is natural to thin the crowd. But look what is happening to his counter part's rallies. I would say that he is till far ahead in terms of size of his rallies.
Actually I would personally like to hear him emphasize the contrast in his idea of India and that of the Dynasty - in each and every one of his rallies going forward. That would be the ideal mix of providing hope and dissing the opponent. I would go as far as to say that this articulation of the 'idea of India' is precisely where, in my estimate, he is an absolutely path-breaking thought-leader - unparalleled in modern Indian history.a_bharat wrote: His initial speeches were good and generated hope. He is now into "they are trying to get Modi" stuff.
Not true. The fact is that the number of rallies he is doing in various places in a state makes sure the catchment is local. For instance, in Rajasthan, he did numerous rallies in one day. So people have a wider choice based on proximity, reach, timing etc. if however, he is visiting just one city, then the audience size grows exponentially. For instance, Bangalore. Where they are hiring trains, buses and what not to ferry people to and from the venue.Shonu wrote:Modi charm fading in Madhya Pradesh?
Is this the sickular media or is there any truth to it?
If you have listened to his initial speeches (around the time he was declared as BJP campaign committee chief, and later when he was declared as BJP's PM candidate), and his recent speeches, you would know the difference.Arun Menon wrote:^All of this based on the words of DDM? Come on guys, have more clarity of thought.
these are election rallies as opposed to hunkar/vijay rallies election rallies are heldsubhamoy.das wrote:Too many rallies is natural to thin the crowd. But look what is happening to his counter part's rallies. I would say that he is till far ahead in terms of size of his rallies.
One news and we are already Dhoti Shivering?Shonu wrote:Modi charm fading in Madhya Pradesh?
Is this the sickular media or is there any truth to it?
State BJP spokesperson Hitesh Vajpayee said, "Modi reached Sagar before time, so crowds were just beginning to move in. But at Chattarpur, Guna and Bhopal, the turnout was on expected lines."
When the rally began, there were around 10,000 people at the meeting ground. As a strategy, BJP allowed Shailandra Jain, party candidate from Sagar, Bhupendra Singh Thakur from Khurai and Gopal Bhargawa from Rehli to speak before Modi. In the meantime, police were requested to remove barricades to let people enter the rally ground. And 20 minutes later by the time, Modi began speaking, the turnout was about 25,000.
Ghasiram Patel, district president of BJP said, "he reached at 11.35 pm at the meeting place when his scheduled arrival was around 1. He was before time and we could not spread the message around." About 20,000 people turned out at Chattarpur.
He preferred waiting at the helipad before reaching the Dussehra maidan in Guna, only to find thin crowds. There were around 15,000-20,000 people only.
Given that 10k to 20k people were turning up, I would think it is encouraging. Guna, Chattarpur etc are not big places! So getting crowd in lakhs is out of question. What worries me is the last line on security threat - but even if that discourages people from rallies, I hope that they turn up to vote. I would be more worried if the national voting percentage turns out less than 70% in the general election - if people come out and vote and the percentage is anything like what was there in Chattisgarh, Modi will surely win imho!!!Off the record, BJP leaders confided that a security threat to Modi is looming large. In Bhopal, the party discouraged a large turnout as it was already dark when the rally began.
a_bharat wrote:If you have listened to his initial speeches (around the time he was declared as BJP campaign committee chief, and later when he was declared as BJP's PM candidate), and his recent speeches, you would know the difference.Arun Menon wrote:^All of this based on the words of DDM? Come on guys, have more clarity of thought.