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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 12 Oct 2010 20:45
by shyamd
Quick comments: Dubai is not going to accept many naturalisation applications. It costs a lot to provide services to the small population. Then if the locals start get angry then u will end up with a Uganda type situation. It can be done in a phased approach and it is being done to people who really matter.

Comments about life after oil: we are years and I mean 10's or maybe even a 100 years away from running out of oil.

If you want to see an arab GCC country without much oil. Take a look at life in the sultanate of Oman. The locals have to work to get a living these days and its now socially accepted to work.

Life in Oman has changed a lot. Now if you visit most offices or supermarkets you will find local women working there. Although there are a lot of indians but the trend is growing.

-----i------

Just adding on to abishekcc's comments: UAe and KSA have territorial issues that were settled in the 80's. But abu dhabi feel that it was done when sheikh zayed was weak.
So, those issues are creeping up. There is a dispute over gas deposits on the northern border with KSA and issues over a pipeline from qatar going to disputed territory.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 12 Oct 2010 21:09
by RajeshA
shyamd wrote:Quick comments: Dubai is not going to accept many naturalisation applications. It costs a lot to provide services to the small population. Then if the locals start get angry then u will end up with a Uganda type situation. It can be done in a phased approach and it is being done to people who really matter.
As I mentioned, it could be some two-tier citizenship, with only natives getting social benefits and top-tier political positions. Indians would be happy with permanent residency, property ownership, (otherwise) equal rights under the law, government jobs (albeit with reservation for native Arabs), military service, etc.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 13 Oct 2010 04:01
by Johann
abhischekcc wrote:
Lalmohan wrote:abhishek, i doubt that iran is weaker than the UAE. the latter has the toys, but the former has the smarts and the will
If US/allies attack Iran, it will be a limited war because of several constraints (domestic pressure in aggresor countries beng just one). IOW, an air war is the only feasible option. Taking out the nuclear reactor will also only need air power. In that field Iran is no match for any Sunni air force, including pakis.
Not sure about this; Iran faced a real bombing campaign from both Iraqi missiles and aircraft from 1980-88, so they do understand the value of robust air defences.

They also have the experience of trying to maintain aircraft andair defences when the original manufacturing countries have embargoed spares and expertise.

Of course in 1980 they still had the technological advantage, and that's not the case today. The question of what they've been able to achieve given their pool of engineering talent and access to US/Russian/Chinese systems is hard to say given all of the constraints of sanctions. There's a lot of vaporware on parade in the Ahmadinejad age.

This is worth looking at for those who are interested;
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-170710-1.html

My guess is that in a short sharp operation the Gulf Arabs (even using Egyptian or Pakistani pilots) would not be able to inflict nearly as much damage as the Israelis or Americans, and would probably take more losses. I just don't think the Arab air forces have the intelligence gathering and analysis as well as battle management resources and structures to really be effective. C4ISR stuff doesn't look as sexy and macho.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 13 Oct 2010 09:51
by abhischekcc
RajeshA wrote:
abhischekcc wrote:Arabs are very concious of any threat to their social fabric. It is a red line for them.

RajeshA, If India tried to force the issue as you say - it would have been resisted by the whole Arab world - as they would understand that they are next on line.
abhischekcc ji,

thanks for your feedback. I am curious about what would happen once the Oil starts running out, or one finds another source of abundant energy. Probably the emirates too would start losing their appeal. Dubai may not stay as a rare free trading outpost. Other places can give it a run for its money. In such a world, would Dubai then be more open to a real partnership with India, which also includes citizenship?
Rajesh,

Oil certainly gives a strong lever to the Arabs to do as they please, and loss of that will certainly lower/destroy their influence.

Of course, the governments are aware of the problem and are taking steps to meet the inevitable challenge of lower/zero oil revenues. They are trying to shift to manufacturing/trading. But whatever happens, the standard of living will go down unless the local population is willing to put in more effort than it currently does.

<<edited>> Ironically, this will give Dubai an upper hand over AD and other countries of the region.

I see Arab world more open to India when oil revenues go down. Perhaps with marriage links along with business links. Arabia has always had strong links to India and until the oil boom, has been dependant on Indian economy.

-------------

Arab oil countries are looking seriously at nuclear energy. Reasons being:
1. To prepare for a oil deficient future.
2. To provide for domestic energy needs with nuke power, so that more oil is available for exports.

-------------

Some time back Dubai had evinced interest in getting a nuclear reactor. It had raised a minor storm on the forum :). Not many people know that the Dubai gets all of its energy from AD (as do other smaller emirates). So Dubai needs a nuclear reactor both to meet its energy needs and to maintain independance from the AD.

---------------

I do not forsee Indians getting citizenship in Arab countries any time in the future. When oil runs out, those places will become unattractive and nobody would want to get citizenship. And before that, the governments have enough leverage to ignore this demand. They may open up later to attact money and entrepreneurs, but that remains to be seen.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 13 Oct 2010 12:00
by shyamd
Emirates have already announced nuclear plants. They have even announced the first 4 locations. One of them is close to the KSA border I believe.

And folks, check out the Sheikh Mohammed's recent video release via the dubai media office of him working in the office. He has a picture of Sheikh Khalifa right behind his chair. And the camera focuses on the picture.
Sheikh Mo is sending a message of his loyalty.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 13 Oct 2010 12:39
by D Roy
yes and KEPCO was the surprise winner.

http://www.upiasia.com/Economics/2009/1 ... deal/4429/

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 13 Oct 2010 14:31
by Philip
"Sex" Yacht seized with a group of billionaire's aboard,including Donald Trump,who wants to stand for the US Presidency!

ENRC billionaire was on 'sex yacht' seized by Turkey
One of the billionaires behind London-listed ENRC was on the yacht seized by Turkish authorities after allegations of a sex party and underage prostitution on board.

By Richard Orange and Rowena Mason
13 Oct 2010

The 400ft Savarona yacht was seized by Turkish authorities in September Photo: ALAMY A spokesman for Alexander Mashkevich, who co-founded the FTSE 100 miner and still owns 14.6pc of the company, confirmed to The Daily Telegraph yesterday that the businessman was present on the boat but not one of those arrested.

"He was on board," said Roman Spektor, the Kazakhstani billionaire's spokesman.

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"From our perspective he wasn't involved in any immoral or criminal actions. It's a real provocation. It's a real dirty lie in order to discredit him, because he's a well-known member of the worldwide Jewish community."

There is no suggestion of any wrongdoing by Mr Mashkevich, but the revelation is likely to be a further headache for ENRC, as the £12bn mining giant battles concerns over its corporate governance. Institutional investors last month questioned its judgement in buying mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo that had earlier been seized from a rival.

Mr Mashkevich, who is estimated to be worth £1.9bn, is one of three extremely powerful Kazakh businessmen known as the "Trio" who together control 44pc of ENRC.

Kahraman Sadikoglu, the owner of the 400ft Savarona yacht seized by authorities in late September, said Mr Mashkevich and other businessmen had flown into Turkey on a private jet for a party on the vessel. He said a number of girls arrived on a separate jet from Kazakhstan.

When the yacht was confiscated, eight women and two underage girls were taken for health checks in the Mediterranean city of Antalya. Ten people, including two women, were arrested. Tevfik Ari, a New York real estate mogul and friend of Donald Trump, was among those detained.

The yacht's owner charged $50,000 per day to rent the businessmen his vessel, which was formerly owned by Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey, and often chartered by Princess Diana and Dodi Al-Fayed.

Mr Sadikoglu said he did not know whether the girls on board were prostitutes but said they had been described as girlfriends and were the same ones who attended a party three weeks before. He denied that any of them were underage.

He said the party spent around $45,000 a day in wine, with the average bottle costing $1,500, adding that senior members of the Kazakh government also attended parties.Mr Sadikoglu said there were eight Brazilian dancers, three belly-dancers and six bodyguards but said it was not a "sex party".

He said "This is their private charter agreement. The name is 'private charter' - they can do whatever they like, they can do what they want."

Mr Mashkevich's spokesman said he would put out a formal statement once the Turkish authorities have finished their investigation.ENRC declined to comment


Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 14 Oct 2010 11:36
by Philip
Pres.Mahmoud-in-a-jacket is in Beirut,reinforcing his ties with the Lebanese state.Beirut,once known as the "Paris and/or the Riviera of the Levant","Switzerland of the Middle East",etc.,ended up becoming the global symbol of battle and bloodshed.I'm not sure if the Iranian Pres. hopes to transform Lebanon into the "Persia" of the Middle east;more likely he wants it to become the Levantine equivalent of the Iranian Revolution! If that is his intention,then the Lebanese might have to head for the hills again and look for caves to hide themselves in when the next round of fighting with Israel takes place.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad receives hero's welcome in Lebanon
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, received a hero's welcome in Lebanon as he arrived in the country for a two-day visit designed to demonstrate Tehran's grip over the region's most perilous state.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... banon.html
The Iranian leader took the opportunity during his trip to lash out at Israel following talks with Mr Sleiman.

"We fully support the resistance of the Lebanese people against the Zionist regime," he said. "Lebanon is not only a source of pride for the Lebanese but for the region because Lebanon has changed the balance of power in favour of the people of the region."

He was expected to go much further in an address to Hizbollah supporters at a south Beirut stadium last night at which he is expected to make joint remarks with Hassan Nasrallah, the Hizbollah leader who has not been seen in public since 2008.

More friction is expected today (Thurs) when Mr Ahmedinejad travels to Lebanese border towns targeted in the 2006 war that killed more than 1,000 people. Hizbollah has used hundred of millions of dollars donated by Iran for reconstruction of the south and residents expressed gratitude to the Iranian leader. Mahmoud Darwish, a 50-year old local who turned out for Mr Ahmadinejad said: "He helped us rebuild Lebanon. If he hadn't, our houses would still be destroyed and we would still be living in tents."

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 15 Oct 2010 16:18
by Philip
Nice piece by Fisk,spot on as usal with his insights into ME affairs.Interesting to note why Iran is that close to Lebanon.
.....Lebanon's Iranian roots go far back to the days of the Saffavids. Some of Iran's greatest clerics came from the Jebel Amal area of Tyre – indeed, a number of the leaders of the 1979 Iranian Revolution preached in Lebanon.
Xcpts:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/
Robert Fisk: Israel comes face to face with the man who would wipe it off the map

Lebanon's southern border, so often a battleground, hosted the latest leg of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's provocative tour yesterday
Friday, 15 October 2010

He looks like a shepherd, but he might have been the Shah. And there he was last night, the President of Iran, one of the triple pillars of the "Axis of evil", scarcely two miles from the border of that holy of holies which every American president must support – the State of Israel, or the "Jewish State of Israel", as its government claims it to be. The Shia Muslim crowds loved Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. They adored him. For weeks, they had been told he was coming. Shah-like was his welcome.


For it was in Bint Jbeil – his last stop last night – that the Shia Hizbollah destroyed at least 10 of Israel's tanks in the 2006 war, and the message was perfectly clear. The West might think it was putting Ahmadinejad back in the box, sanctioning Iran for its mysterious nuclear projects, cursed by Israel for its threats. But here was the little man himself – even the Hizbollah leader, Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, had grovelled to him on Wednesday night – taunting the Israelis within visible distance of their border. It was a state with no future, illegitimate; it should cease to exist. He had been saying this for 48 hours.

But something rather dangerous was getting loose last night. Watching Ahmadinejad, you got the feeling that he really believed all this flannel, that the fawning and pampering and ecstasy might have gone to his head. Was this not, after all, the same Ahmadinejad who claimed that a ghostly halo hung over his head when he first addressed the United Nations? The Lebanese, clogged into their traffic jams – courtesy of the Great Man – did indeed claim he was the Shah. "How could such a silly man lead a wonderful, brilliant country like Iran?" one of them asked me last night.

Good question. But the Shias of the southern suburbs and of southern Lebanon – and the Hizbollah, who are trained, paid and armed by his country – showed their adoration at every turn. They talked of his nobility and knowledge, his wisdom. That a man whose government had just arrested yet another reformist opposition leader in Iran – Ali Shakouridad of the "Participation Front" – should be lauded in a nation which prides itself on its democracy was one of the wondrous elements of this state visit. That every local Lebanese politician who ever fired a shot in anger would want to turn up for his official lunches was the second wondrous element.

But back to basics. The last time an Iranian president visited Lebanon – the saintly but weak Mohamed Khattami – he got short shrift from the Hizbollah, plenty of crowds but no great reverence, for Khattami was a secular figure, calling for a civil society rather than an end of Israel. But Ahmadinejad is a classic "man of the people", bounding out of his armour-plated car to glad-hand the people, the ordinary man in the ordinary street. When he came close to the Bourj el-Barajneh Palestinian refugee camp, he waved to the Palestinians. No other president – not even the President of Lebanon – had ever done that. Choreographed it might have been. Clever it was.

And we have to remember that this was also the President who, arriving in Baghdad at the height of Iraq's post-invasion fury, declined to take the safe route to the Green Zone in a helicopter – as most western diplomats did – and preferred the dangerous airport road. Maybe he does think God protects him. A story – which I am told is true – goes that Ahmadinejad called Nasrallah during the 2006 Hizbollah war with Israel and promised to pay for the rebuilding of all Beirut if Nasrallah wanted to fire rockets at Tel Aviv. Nasrallah chose not to. But you can see why the crowds think Ahmadinejad – or "Nejad" as they call him – is a hero.

Of course, he's no hero to some members of the Beirut government who have been wondering if – in declaring Lebanon to be Iran's front line with Israel – Ahmedinejad might indeed think he has shah-like powers (if he doesn't also think he is president of Lebanon as well as Iran). And his jibes against the Hague Tribunal into the Hariri murder – which might yet get laid at Hizbollah's door – were as close to "interference in the internal affairs" of a foreign state as you can get. But the late Sayed Mohamed Hussain Fadlallah used to say that Lebanon was "a lung through which Iran breathes" – which might be true – and Lebanon's Iranian roots go far back to the days of the Saffavids. Some of Iran's greatest clerics came from the Jebel Amal area of Tyre – indeed, a number of the leaders of the 1979 Iranian Revolution preached in Lebanon.

Interestingly, it was left to Nasrallah, speaking from a video-screen while the real-life President of Iran spoke to a great crowd in the Beirut suburbs, to try to cool the anger of those – like a lot of Christian Lebanese and the US State Department – who believe Ahmadinejad's visit was a massive plot to set up an Islamic republic in Lebanon. "Iran has no single project for this region," Nasrallah said. "In Lebanon, its project is Lebanese, in Palestine, it is Palestinian, and in the Arab world, it is Arab."

Ahmadinejad went out of his way to praise Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri – son of the ex-premier assassinated in 2005 – for his role in protecting national stability and unity. Since Hariri's government is powerless to disarm the Hizbollah, this compliment may have been back-handed. And since Hizbollah's representatives in parliament hold veto powers over the Hariri cabinet, Ahmadinejad's words came free of charge. Lebanon was a symbol of dignity, he added, not least for its resistance to "the Zionist enemy". And a lot of Lebanese are fearfully waiting for the next chapter in this latter story.

But at the Lebanese President's high table, old enemies managed a rare display of unity. Did they really think, then, that Ahmadinejad actually runs Iran or knows one end of a nuclear missile from the other? Even ex-general Michel Aoun – who actually once thought he was president of Lebanon while fighting a hopeless "liberation war" against Syria – turned up to smile upon the President of Iran. There are those in Beirut who believe Aoun is a bit mad. What Iranians think of Ahmadinejad's abilities was not, of course, discussed in Lebanon. But he won the last presidential election in Iran. Or did he?

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 15 Oct 2010 21:06
by shyamd
The sunni's are burning in anger because there was a mock up of the al aqsa mosque with a shi'ite flag over it.

They are not happy with what the Saud's see as Obama's non existant middle east policy.

Apparently Saudi ambassador to US spends most of his time in Riyad rather than washington, as he is one of King A's close aides.
Most of ME policy is decided in Riyadh rather than washington these days. He travels back to washington for any functions etc. But it could also mean that KSA is not happy with Obama and his policies,

--------------i
The region is undeergoing a major re-armament supposedly against Iran. Oman is buying more F-16's, UAe may get more equipment apart from the THAAD's.
Saudi's are also looking at other kit - as they have the Yemen worry too.

The US is expecting in excess of $100bn in deals from the GCC.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 15 Oct 2010 21:44
by ramana
It could be bailout of US companies during the recession. Any way petro dollars need to be recycled. For $100 B they can buy out Yemen and incorporate into their state.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 05:17
by shyamd
Not just that, but this is by Obama's own admission apparently a "draw down on number of boots in theregion". And of course adds to more jobs in the US. So by this rearmament exercise, it can safely withdraw some of its presence from the region

It also brings everyone closer and offers long lasting relationship with the US.

Most nations will have their air defences and radars upgraded too. Total orders worth $122bn expected.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 08:54
by abhishek_sharma
Israeli ambassador: we're a "long way from discussing settlements"

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts ... settlement

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 09:06
by abhishek_sharma
Sheikh Ahamad Abdullah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah (from Kuwait) is visiting

http://pib.nic.in/release/phsmall.asp?phid=31017

http://pib.nic.in/release/phsmall.asp?phid=31016

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 18 Oct 2010 12:04
by shyamd
Canadian troops have been expelled from the using the UAE as its main logistics base. There has been a serious falling out over a few issues. The defence minister was also denied to fly over UAE airspace. People did say it was due to canadian refusal to allow emirates airlines to fly to canada. At the moment air canada is monopolising the uae route.

The canadian agreement with the uae expired in June and the UAe extended that till september according to a friend.
----------------------------

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 18 Oct 2010 14:48
by abhischekcc
Western countries are ganging up against gulf airlines - Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar.

http://www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news ... f-airlines
The biggest flag-carrying airlines in Europe are joining forces in an effort to thwart the rapid global expansion of rivals from the Gulf amid a rising tide of protectionism in the industry.

Air France's chief executive, Pierre-Henri Gourgeon, took the vanguard in a blistering public attack against Emirates, Etihad and other Gulf-based airlines yesterday.
Something rotten is brewing in Paris, as usual.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 18 Oct 2010 15:24
by Lalmohan
these 3 airlines are making a direct attack on the global transcontinental traffic - the most lucrative sector for any airlines.

many of the EU flag carriers have high costs, difficult labour relations and competitive markets (thanks to legislators and US pressure), now these 'uppity a-rabs are muscling in...' with their endless chequebooks and low cost 'oriennul hot chick labour...'

how much more can a white former colonial power take??!! [sarcasm onlee]

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 18 Oct 2010 17:23
by RajeshA
Published on Oct 18, 2010
By Abdullah Al Shayji
Learning to dance with India: Gulf News
But, there are some issues in the relationship which need to be addressed and tackled if it is to move forward and come to fruition. These issues include India-Pakistan relations, and Kashmir, {Here a middle finger needs to be shown. Speak of the rights of Shias in Saudi Arabia, next time they utter Kashmir} which was on the boil again this summer. Besides, India’s growing strategic relations with Israel and the close ties between the two countries has come at the expense of Palestinians, and has disappointed many Arabs. These issues need to be tackled and resolved.

On a bilateral level, India’s dragging of its feet on the signing the Free Trade Agreement with the GCC states is a nuisance and should be addressed seriously by the Indians. This contentious issue between the two sides could stand in the way of a full strategic cooperation and is perceived by the GCC states as deliberate stalling, especially since the FTA was signed back in 2004. Trade between the two sides stood at $28 billion in 2007 and is projected to exceed $40 billion in 2010. But after three rounds of talks over the FTA, there seems to be little progress because of India’s insistence on protecting and safeguarding its domestic chemical and petrochemical industries to help give it an advantage over the competition from GCC’s low crude oil cost. This violates the principles of FTA and GCC states object to this.

What has been alarming from the GCC states’ point of view was the new controversy that caught everyone by surprise and triggered negative coverage about India. It was the call by the Indian representative at the Manama Dialogue in December 2008 to GCC states to consider Indian expatriates as immigrants and not expats, which could entitle them to political rights and citizenship. This caused a lot of consternation, which can have far-reaching consequences if not addressed in a more accommodating and understanding manner by the Indians, considering how sensitive the issue of the large Indian expatriate presence in the GCC is.
Furthermore, three of the six GCC states have more foreigners than native inhabitants. No country in the world will tolerate or accept this huge imbalance between its natives and foreign population. As one GCC labour minister noted, it is “the most threatening security challenge faced by the GCC states, even worse than a war.”

In the final analysis, India, from the GCC’s perspective, could provide added value in terms of all these opportunities. Furthermore, GCC states feel at ease in dealing with India. This is because India — and China — have no political agenda, and make no criticism of GCC states over political reforms. India does not carry any political baggage; it also does not impose its values or preach political reforms or interfere in the GCC’s domestic affairs. It is a win-win situation for both parties that could be the foundation for moving this relationship forward.
Both the GCC states and India have a lot at stake. Both sides want to cement their strategic relationship. But India has to be cognisant of the fact that it has to meet the GCC states half-way through and address the contentious issues.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 18 Oct 2010 17:40
by Lalmohan
so it looks like GOI has been flexing some muscles with the gulf states
heart warming

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 18 Oct 2010 20:35
by shyamd
The problem with emirates and etihad etc is that they are just expanding at a tremendous rate. This issue of protection is not new and is old. Canada has been blocking emirates to fly there for many years now and protecting air canada.
Same in Paris and London where the govt limited the number of slots for emirates.
In response emirates ordered more A-380's to ferry more passenegers using the same slots. I think emirates have the highest number of orders of A-380's I think the figure is 90!

Read the emirates business model, its extremely interesting. Its very interesting, as they recruit largely from countries with cheap labour, keep costs low but get the best tech in. Fit more seats on planes but good tech. And they are lucky enough to be located close to the subcontinent which gives them A LOT of business.

------------------

Regarding the article above: I did say that won't accept nationality and especially political rights for the expats that are living there. But I have heard them say that they will accept it, if the expats learn the language and merge with the society. Similar to some indians in oman.
Political rights is hardly given to locals. Don't expect it for expats. But in Oman, they do give citizenship with all rights for expats who have contributed to the country in someway. But generally, In oman the law states you have to have lived in oman for 25 years unless you have contributed to building the country.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 18 Oct 2010 20:52
by D Roy
I don't like the article or the graphic associated with it. The graphic in particular shows a TFTA bedouin standing "firm" in front of a fawning Indian premier. The graphic is insulting to the Indian PM to say the least.

Sample this:
In the final analysis, India, from the GCC’s perspective, could provide added value in terms of all these opportunities. Furthermore, GCC states feel at ease in dealing with India. This is because India — and China — have no political agenda, and make no criticism of GCC states over political reforms. India does not carry any political baggage; it also does not impose its values or preach political reforms or interfere in the GCC’s domestic affairs. It is a win-win situation for both parties that could be the foundation for moving this relationship forward.
but when it comes to themselves :

India is not “impossible to ignore” but it deserves a central role in future strategy of GCC states as they weigh their options in looking east. But India has to work on its image and address all the relevant issues GCC states have been raising and want answers for.
So India will be lectured by a bunch of medieval states about its image since:
But, there are some issues in the relationship which need to be addressed and tackled if it is to move forward and come to fruition. These issues include India-Pakistan relations, and Kashmir, which was on the boil again this summer.

I am sorry but this piece is problematic and indicative of contentious issues more than anything else. It does not delineate any point of real co-operation beyond energy imports ( one sided) and "potentialities."



http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists ... a-1.697842


To state the obvious co-operation with the entire GCC is very different from friendship with Oman, our only real ally, in a set of mostly bigoted Sunni autocracies.

India is well within its rights to push for reforms in these undemocratic political basket cases if they can talk superciliously about kashmir. And Indians very literally contribute to building these countries.

And what does "adoption of local customs" mean anyway in the GCC - Conversion to Islam?

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 19 Oct 2010 09:20
by abhischekcc
Lalmullah, I doubt that GOI is flexing muscles with the GCC. Take a look at the dates of the FTA negotiations. The FTA was signed in 2004 - ie by the BJP government. Since the UPA has taken over, Indian foreign policy has become more and more pro American. This foot dragging on the FTA appears more to be in line with US policy to isolate Gulf in the aftermath of 9/11.

-----------
Regarding the issue of Indians in gulf:
GCC countries will stop functioning if there are no Indians in those countries. We are paid half the pay FOR WORKING while the locals are twice the pay for half the time FOR NOT WORKING.

Given how much contribution Indians have made to the gulf, it is only right that we ask for citizenship rights over there. GOI should raise this issue if they Kashmir.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 19 Oct 2010 09:43
by putnanja
The gulf countries airlines are alos eating into indian carriers' share. The foolish policy by the GoI to give more rights to foreign carriers while making domestic carriers wait for five years is offering Indian market to the gulf carriers on a platter.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 19 Oct 2010 12:42
by Lalmohan
abhishekji, i am very aware of the state of Indian workers in the gulf countries and the overall attitude of the Gulf (and other) Arabs towards us. I detect in the article a tone of alarm rather than the usual dismissive condescension, a sense of of 'why don't these silly indians get on with making the tea and sweeping the streets instead of getting uppity'. given the normal acquiesence of GOI in the matters of Indian worker's welfare, this tone in the editorial starts to indicate that there might be some stiffening of the spine going on within GOI. I also believe that Kashmir is a non-issue politically in these countries, generally speaking, newspaper editorials (in my experience) steer away from discussion - unlike the palestinian issue. the brief oil driven shift in the power balance is shifting back towards its traditional point of equilibrium

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 19 Oct 2010 13:17
by D Roy
I don't know really.

I see words like "image", "deserve", "not impossible to ignore" being used in that piece.

And I don't think the push factor for GCC arms purchases is Eyeraan. The pull is of course sending back money to the MIC in CONUS.

But the purchase of block 60s and F-15 SEs is not Eyeraan oriented.

There have been reports of block 60s acting as a strategic reserve for Puki objectives.

they also have 3 A330s on order for AAR besides the C-17s that they are bringing in.

IN's capability planning needs to take into account the entire ME neighbourhood.

I do not like the tone of that article.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 19 Oct 2010 13:31
by Lalmohan
i agree about the tone of the article

regarding pukes - they serve little purpose to the gulf states other than cheap labour and the sunni-bomb

i dont think they trust the pukes one inch, and they certainly do not respect them, i doubt that they will deliberately create a reserve for use by the pukes (against india specifically) but might harbour dreams of a second front against eye-ran. generally speaking eye-ran is an enemy whilst india is not

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 19 Oct 2010 16:03
by abhischekcc
I agree that the tone of the article reflects some level of alarm in the Arab mind regarding India. At this point it is impossible to pinpoint any any specific reason and that is not necessary also. But I think a number of factors may have contributed. One is the Indo-US nuclear deal and more importantly, how the MMS-led establishment rough shodded other interests (including pro-gulf) to get it passed in the Indian parliament.

I think it shocked the gulf elites how decades of cultivating the Indian elite could be negated in such a short time.
But India has to work on its image and address all the relevant issues GCC states have been raising and want answers for.
Some issues, such as FTA can be resolved. Some other issues, such as Kashmir and Israel, are not open for discussions. Israel does not question our having relations with gulf countries. It goes to the extent of accepting India's compulsions when sometimes we have to vote against them on Palestine. This should be pointed out to gulf countries - that a good relationship is a two way street.

India has no image problems in the gulf. It is gulf elites which need to improve their image with India. They have murdering, raping and kidnapping our citizens for decades. It is time these became major issues between us.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 19 Oct 2010 16:08
by D Roy
The IN needs to be prepared.



The presence of so many Indians on their soil also confers upon them a degree of protection, does it not?

Frankly speaking increased detergent production next door and block saats with AAR worries me.

We need both a protective air bubble on the seas as well as serious offensive capability in the hormuz area.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 19 Oct 2010 20:39
by Suppiah
It is okay to beat wife if no marks are left (would that include smothering with a pillow...??

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.as ... 2010_pg7_3

The punch line is here...remember this is a paki daily..
The UAE is less conservative than some other Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 19 Oct 2010 22:45
by shyamd
Abu Dhabi: Etihad Airways Offers Free UAE Visa for Indian Passengers

India, Oman to boost economic, energy ties
2010-10-19 19:10:00

New Delhi, Oct 19 (IANS) India and Oman, the Gulf country which is home to over half a million expatriate Indians, will Wednesday discuss ways to scale up economic and energy ties when External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna holds talks with his Omani counterpart Yusuf Bin Alawi Bin Abdullah.

Bin Abdullah arrives here Wednesday on a three-day visit. He will call on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh Thursday.

The focus of the visit will be on expanding economic and defence ties, official sources said. Counter-terror cooperation will also be discussed.

The two sides will discuss expanded cooperation in diverse sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure, hospitals, power, mining, oil and gas, education, tourism, healthcare, chemicals and fertilisers.

They are expected to discuss the the India-Oman Joint Investment Fund, which was started in November 2008 with a seed capital of $100 million and is likely to be increased to $1.5 billion.

Trade and investment between India and Oman have been growing in the last few years. Trade touched $4.5 billion last year, while total bilateral investment is worth $7.5 billion.

India is the fifth largest source of imports into Oman. Oman's investments in India have exceeded $200 million. In 2008, major Indian companies, independently or in collaboration, bagged contracts worth $836 million in the Gulf country.

It is not just economic engagement that is growing. The two countries decided to step up defence cooperation by upgrading their joint naval exercises during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Oman in 2008.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 20 Oct 2010 21:12
by shyamd
Well the FM of Oman is in Dilli till the 22nd oct. Word on the steet is that defence and security cooperation will be the main focus.

Deputation of defence personell is also being discussed. There is a joint press conference today at 8pm IST.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 21 Oct 2010 03:32
by shyamd
Oman hails UNSC seat for India
Says India can play a key role in tackling piracy and energy security issues in Gulf

Oman has wholeheartedly welcomed India's election as a non-permanent member of the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) and hoped it would play a positive role in ushering peace in West Asia.

Oman also wished to see India on the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) so that it could contribute to the collective effort to maintaining peace and security along with other countries with interest in the region, Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs of the Sultanate of Oman, Yousuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah, told journalists after talks with External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna here on Wednesday.

Significantly, Oman and the United Arab Emirates are the two GCC nations which back India's nomination as a permanent member in an expanded UNSC.

Calling India a “neighbour which has always played the role of peace,'' he agreed that it could play an important role in the Gulf in addressing issues such as piracy and energy security. He also referred to the expatriate population of nearly six lakh Indians in Oman (and nearly 50 lakh in GCC nations) as a factor that should ensure that India had a stake in the region.

Mr. Krishna underlined the continuing upsurge in economic and commercial ties and noted the signing of detailed documents for the setting up of an Oman-India Joint Investment Fund.

Agreed upon during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Muscat in 2008, the fund would have a seed capital of $100 million with a possible upward limit of $1.5 billion. The Omani Minister said the fund would pay the way for sizeable investments by Gulf companies to invest in infrastructure projects.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 22 Oct 2010 20:46
by shyamd
Note that focus for FM's visit to Delhi was defence and security. He was probably just conveying a message. There was literally a press black out over the trip. He met the PM yesterday and hardly anything in the news both in oman and in indian press.
Most of the articles talked about trade and economy. Something is up.

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F-15 sea eagles purchase saudi arabia is technically put on hold as KSA asked if the aircraft is good enough to take on advanced russian aircraft.
Quite interesting.

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Rafale purchase by abu dhabi on hold due to allegations that rafale contains israeli parts. Which is nothing new because israel supplies many airforces in the middle east with equipment via third countries.
Not just the air force of course.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 25 Oct 2010 17:12
by Philip
(Instead of a new thead,this is being posted here)

Iraq war logs: US turned over captives to Iraqi torture squadsNick Clegg calls for answers to 'extremely serious' abuse reports, but says it is up to US to answer for its own forces

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/oc ... qi-torture
Iraq war logs: US turned over captives to Iraqi torture squadsNick Clegg calls for answers to 'extremely serious' abuse reports, but says it is up to US to answer for its own forces
David Leigh and Maggie O'Kane guardian.co.uk, Sunday 24 October 2010
Iraq war logs: Frago 242 – a licence to torture -How the newly released US military files reveal an instruction to ignore detainee abuse by Iraqi authorities; what that meant on the ground; and just how far up the chain of command the order went Link to this video Fresh evidence that US soldiers handed over detainees to a notorious Iraqi torture squad has emerged in army logs published by WikiLeaks.

The 400,000 field reports published by the whistleblowing website at the weekend contain an official account of deliberate threats by a military interrogator to turn his captive over to the Iraqi "Wolf Brigade".

The interrogator told the prisoner in explicit terms that: "He would be subject to all the pain and agony that the Wolf battalion is known to exact upon its detainees."

The evidence emerged as the deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, said the allegations of killings, torture and abuse in Iraq were "extremely serious" and "needed to be looked at".

Clegg, speaking on BBC1's Andrew Marr Show, did not rule out an inquiry into the actions of British forces in Iraq, but said it was up to the US administration to answer for the actions of its forces. His comments contrasted with a statement from the Ministry of Defence today, which warned that the posting of classified US military logs on the WikiLeaks website could endanger the lives of British forces.

Clegg said: "We can bemoan how these leaks occurred, but I think the nature of the allegations made are extraordinarily serious. They are distressing to read about and they are very serious. I am assuming the US administration will want to provide its own answer. It's not for us to tell them how to do that."

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 31 Oct 2010 03:30
by shyamd
I am sure we all have heard this in the news today.

Some comments: Well, it appears that the Bomb was detected by Dubai airport authorities. It just goes to show that Dubai airport security is top notch, and I can tell you that the head of security doesnt wave for anyone, no matter how powerful or sensitive a package is, the paperwork is done.

Saudi intelligence provided the intel to the US, BO called Cameron and told him about the latest intelligence. Fighter jets were scrambled to escort a cargo plane to land. Yemen says they found 24-26 more suspect packages.

Anyway, I have been warning for a while that Yemen is a big worry for the Pentagon and KSA intel. Yemen is high on the agenda. Most of AQ commanders have now moved from AfPak to Yemen. Look at my past posts on the subjects. The GCC nations are really worried about Yemen because they know that any AQAP wins there will significantly impact security in KSA - which naturally affects security in the Gulf.

More bomb-parcels sought in probe of Al Qaeda air cargo plot
DEBKAfile Special Report October 30, 2010, 1:24 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: air cargo terror Al Qaeda UK US Yemen
Device found at East Midlands, UK, airport

A broadening multinational investigation seeks to probe the scale of the al Qaeda air freight plot causing mayhem in the international cargo freight system on the assumption that the threat is still viable. Yemen, to which two explosive parcels bound for Chicago synagogues were traced, itself seized more than 30 suspect parcels before they were loaded on outward flights. Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh said Saturday, Oct. 30, that a woman suspected of sending the explosive parcels had been arrested in Sanaa on the basis of US and UAE intelligence.

debkafile's counter-terror sources say Yemeni claims of success should be taken with a pinch of salt. Saleh is eager to show results in his probe as he is under pressure from Washington to show fast results and he has high hopes for financial rewards. Above all, his army is fighting a losing war against Al Qaeda's inroads in Yemen and therefore unlikely to be able to contest the terrorist infrastructure which set up the package plot.

As the multiple investigation got underway, British Home Secretary Theresa May and Dubai police speculated Saturday that the two rigged parcels could have exploded on aircraft before they reached their Chicago addresses.

debkafile reported earlier:

Were it not for a tipoff from Saudi intelligence identifying the UPS and Fedex bomb parcels directed from Yemen to Chicago on separate cargo planes, they would not have been discovered before they blew up. Even so, debkafile's counter-terror sources report, al Qaeda chalked up a coup by successfully penetrating and paralyzing the main intercontinental air mail systems.

The packages taken off planes at the British East Midlands airport and Dubai Friday, Oct. 29, and rendered harmless were affixed to separate detonators- a cell phone SIM card SIM card and a trigger.

President Barack Obama reported a credible terror threat to the United States Friday night and pointed to Al Qaeda in Yemen (AQAP). He said two Chicago synagogues were targeted, but did not specify to which of the 140 Jewish places of worship in the Chicago area the packages were addressed.
The city is the president's political base. His outgoing chief of staff mayoral candidate Rahm Emanuel and his wife attend Anshe Shalom.
The United States, European and Middle East airports went on high terror alert after Washington was informed of a bomb threat to the US by means of air cargoes Thursday night. All the same, local airport security authorities in the US, Britain, Germany, France and Dubai were not aware of the threat and let the packages go through to their destinations. Suspicion was first aroused at the East Midlands airport by a photocopier ink cartridge with wires and white powder. Our sources report it contained PETN (pentaerythritol trinitrate) explosive material disguised by a chemical coating.

This was the same substance used by the "Underpants" bomber Farouk Abdulmuttalab when he failed to blow up a Delta passenger flight last Christmas and "Shoe Bomber" Richard Reid nine years ago. After that, cargo planes with freights originating in Yemen were kept back on arrival at Philadelphia and Newark, NJ international airports for thorough screening.

Intensified security measures at all US airports for passengers as well as freight and the public advised to be extra vigilant. Friday, as confusion mounted over the nature of "attack", dozens of alarms were phoned in during the day from different parts of America. They included sightings of two UPS pick-trucks in Queens and Brooklyn, an unaccompanied bag on a street bench which caused part of San Francisco's financial district to be temporarily evacuated and a knapsack outside a courthouse in Portland, Maine.

Linda Haase, the associate vice president of the Jewish Federation of Metropolitan Chicago, said Friday that synagogues in the area had been on alert since being informed of a potential threat. She referred to threats to synagogues and the White House and mentioned "black powder." The reference to the White House as later dropped from the report.

Obama's statement stressed that the terror threat was still in force and US security and intelligence services were on guard to protect US citizens, friends and allies. The Transport Security Agency was ordered to intensify security checks at all American airports.
Saturday, the US media disclosed that Saudi intelligence had been the source of the tipoff to Washington about dangerous air freight on its way to the United States providing the consignment numbers of the bomb packages. In the UK, following discovery of the rigged ink cartridge, a new counter-terror center was established with labs for testing suspect articles. Prime Minister David Cameron called the COBRA committee into session to look at the lapses of the British air security system. The suspect package was noted and cleared at East Midlands and sent on its way. It is chaired by the Home Secretary Theresa May as Cameron has a date with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. They too are no doubt discussing the ramifications of al Qaeda's air cargo plot

Even after the ink-bomb raised suspicion at East Midlands, major questions remain to be answered:

1. Without the Saudi tipoff, the bomb-parcels would have remained undetected and reached their targets. Meanwhile, Al Qaeda has succeeded in breaching the intercontinental air freight system, one of the wheels which makes Western economies go round and can claim a tactical success.

2. Although PETN had been used by failed al Qaeda's bombers on international flights in the past, several airport security agencies at ports on the routes of the cargo flights failed to detect the presence of this explosive substance.
3. While only two packages have been identified as dangerous, there may be more still be found in meticulous sweeps of many tons of freight - or even delivered. Their presence refutes the first theory widely held by terror experts that the plot was a dry run to probe for weak points in the intercontinental air freight system.

4. The imposition of heightened security for air cargo comparable to that applied to passenger traffic would throw the mail industry into chaos, causing extreme financial losses and disrupting an important branch of the Western economy. That too would be accounted by al Qaeda a major success - at very little cost to itself.
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Hillary met up with Lebanese President Michel Suleiman and asked him if Ahmadinejad was going to cause a flair up in Lebanon when they met last month in the sidelines of the UN meet.. Supposedly 2500 IRGC personel were present to provide security for Ahmadinejad.
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King Abdullah and Lebanese PM Saad Harriri met up with the chap incharge of the Hariri tribunal. He told both of them that it will feature Syria and Hezbollah quite heavily.
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GCC leaders are worried that Iran has many cells in their countries. IRGC cells are definetly there and now all the GCC countries are really divided on how best to deal with the IRGC cells.
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A massive naval base has opened in the Emirate of Fujairah, UAE. Major French naval presence is expected. US ships will also dock there. Fujairah is fairly close to Iranian border. Egypt is also expected to station some naval and marine units there.

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KSA spent $1billion in the last election to back sunni parties, Iran spent $100m, Syria $50m. Saudi and Syria have agreed not to spend in the next election.

US is thinking about backing the lebanese intelligence service called the FSI. This service was trained by the FBI. And was involved in shuitting down numerous Mossad cells. US wants to work with this organisation as all the commanders are Sunni muslims, so less fear of Hezbollah infiltration.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 31 Oct 2010 05:12
by ramana
So where did the stuff come from? Its not common material. Its very energetic material. What are its origins?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentaeryth ... tranitrate

I think its Paki origin materials. The stuff is primary ingredient for plastic. By naming the chemical instead of the trade name the TSP link is being hidden.

All skunks from Reid to latest used the same material. From shoes to underwear to printer cartridges.

Why aren't tracers materials being mandated for plastic explosives?

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 02 Nov 2010 02:13
by ramana
ShyamD, THis guy thinks the UPS plane crash in Dubai could be a dummy run for the recent ones. Did someone post something on the UPS plane crash?

LINK

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 03 Nov 2010 04:50
by shyamd
Yes ramana. The US is investigating it. Quite interesting.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 07 Nov 2010 06:12
by shyamd
IOL:
The Al Faisal's are trying to put their names forward to become the next King after King Abdullah. They are trying to get the hotseat.

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Parcel bomb was indeed detected and stopped by KSA Ministry of Interior controlled General Security Service (GSS). The intel came from AQAP moles. There is some sort of politics on stationing or allowing US spec ops to get involved with operations in Yemen. But legally only the CIA is allowed to do so, so CIA seems to be preparing to get its hands dirty in Yemen.

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Bandar bin Sultan went back to Saudi Arabia on October 16, after two years in disgrace. King Abdullah excluded him from his inner circle following Prince Bandar’s implication in the BAE Systems bribes scandal: a series of press articles and television programs in the US and the UK had made Bandar a symbol for corruption in the kingdom. Prince Bandar has spent the past two years in one of his villas in a suburb of Rome on the pretext that he had health problems.
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Maliki is trying to woo the support of all the regional guys involved in Iraq. Iran has confirmed that their forces of influence will back maliki to continue as PM. This in exchange to disband some militia's and to give Iranian goods custom free import and export. Saudi's don't want maliki in power, as Tehran would have power over the 2nd largest OPEC member in their eyes, he's too close to Iran. So, KSA not happy. Maliki is making the right sounds and has also secured some sort of backing with Syria too. Now all Maliki needs is Kurdish support to get a majority. Kurds submitted a list of 19 things they want. Most of which will be hard to get because vast majority of MPs are nationalist and they don't like the separatist attitude of the Kurds.

Kurds are now consolidating and strengthening their position by building up an intel arm and merging militia's. Knowing that Kurds are gettin powerful, Baghdad asked Kurds to integrate their forces primarily the Peshmerga, with Central Command HQ in Baghdad.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 10 Nov 2010 12:42
by shyamd
Good news. This is something I have been harping about for a long time. Who better to ask help for mountain warfare than the Indian army who have been slugging it out in the mountains for the last 6 decades.

BR Ahead of the curve as always.

Let's see what the analysts say. Think about it, they had the french, americans, paki's, morroccans in. They still couldn't defeat the Houthi's.

They had an absolute ass kicking. So there is a lot of re-organising going on within the saudi national guard.

Why now?
Saudi's are really worried about Yemen. Its becoming a TSP type platform for KSA. Where AQAP is using yemen as a base for training and launching attacks in the Kingdom
And for the last maybe 5 or 6 months, KSA is building up purchases for action in Yemen. KSA will intervene to help keep AQAP out and protect the current Saleh regime in yemen.

Now this is just the first step. Indian army will become advisors to the MoD of KSA. The fact that KSA wants a mountain school means, they want India's expertise for a long period.

Of course, GoI will ask for a lot of $$$ if they were smart.

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Sudairi's have been discussing succession with Crown Prince Sultan in Agadir.