facepalm.jpegnaren wrote: And you do realize that this is the same party which pulled of great leap forward and cultural revolution right ?
Sanjay Ji the threshold of the Importing countries are getting lower and lower.If china were to lower its exchange rates, expect barrier's to be erected by those importing countries.Sanjay M wrote:^^^China could stretch it out, just by lowering its exchange rate again.
They could effectively export a recession to the West.
China could mitigate any internal panic by imposing economic controls, if necessary.
Okay Suraj,TonyMontana wrote: 1) Why would China collapse?
2) How?
3) When?
4) What does a collapsed China look like?
5) How could India manage China during the collapse?
6) What are India's options after China collapse?
Of cause. I mean the economic collapse of China.Suraj wrote:Unless it is related to the PRC economy, use the PRC thread in the strat forum. Thanks.
Tony I know that you are being sarcastic but this thing is very important for the Indians since the coming collapse will affect India hugely and Indian's should be able to prepare for it.The timing is not correct (IMO) but after the winter's are over I guess we need a thread such as the one you have suggested.TonyMontana wrote:Dear Mods,
I wonder would it be a good idea to start a new thread called:
The Coming Collapse of China
[/quote]Manishw wrote: Tony I know that you are being sarcastic but this thing is very important for the Indians since the coming collapse will affect India hugely and Indian's should be able to prepare for it.The timing is not correct (IMO) but after the winter's are over I guess we need a thread such as the one you have suggested.
It is truly a very interesting, good report in general. I spent great time to read the whole article. Strikingly, your reading ability is a total failure. The whole point of this report is to challenge the convention wisdom of “China builds crap, it burns crap, and it doesn’t give a crap.” It was clearly written on page 6 right after this "crap" quote.vina wrote:
I was in fact struck by the amount of coal and energy that China uses. According to this first comprehensive survey of China's power sector Greener Plants, Grayer skies? by MIT, the following is stark and stands out well.
It says the stereotype ofis far more nuanced and that there have been pretty deep changes in the past 10 years.“China builds crap, it burns crap, and it doesn’t give a crap.”
Your reading teacher would give you an F.from MIT report wrote:(page 5) The Conventional Wisdom
......
(following in page 6)
Taken together, these three points – about technology, fuels, and political context – fit
together into a single punch line. In the bluntest terms, “China builds crap, it burns crap, and it
doesn’t give a crap.”
Conventional Wisdom Challenged: MIT’s 2007 China Energy Survey
There is absolutely nothing wrong in the definition of a "large" UNIT (the paper and Chinese government here definite generator unit, totally different from plant) as >300MW, man, your reading ability is a total failure. No expert will have question about that. It doesn't mean all Chinese large units are only 300MW. Actually the report gave the number of Chinese coal-fired generator prior 2007 in each cataloguevina wrote: The MIT report is extremely interesting. Contrary to what the Chinese posters seem to say, the definition of a "large" plant in China is > 300MW and contrary to the impression posted here of the bulk of chinese plants being super/ultra critical with 600/800/1000 MWs and HVDC lines evacauting, that picture is not true. Just like India the recent Chinese plants are that kind (India has an advantage, our plants are coming up now, we don't have a legacy problem and the private guys putting up plants after the power sector has been liberalized are putting up the latest plants with cutting edge tech. Our older plants too are pretty good and have all environmental safeguards and stuff like SO2 scrubbers and particle traps etc built in and always had them).
To be honest other than a few no one says China is going to collapse. It is going to be more similar to what Thailand and Malaysia are going through.enqyoob wrote:Today's news says Chinese manufacturing is rising again. All this talk of Chinese collapse is wishful thinking. They have excellent econo-communists ruling the country, and have total control to be very agile and precise. Don't have to be at the whim of a Parliament or Courts. So they will model, predict, and act decisively, and hence any predictions of collapse based on current trajectories, are wishful thinking.
It will take some external force that resonates with internal fissures, to cause collapse in China. So far there is no evidence of such a force.
I see this argument all the time too. Where exactly is the link between GDP growth and instability in China?Theo_Fidel wrote: An inability to get the GDP growth going no matter how much money or inputs you throw at it. The social factors keeping China stable then come into question.
The real shock will come when the Chinese people realize that 90%+ of them are never going to to make
it to first world standards. Not even to a 1/5th of that level.
Do you selective ignore arguments?TonyMontana wrote:I see this argument all the time too. Where exactly is the link between GDP growth and instability in China?
People revolt when they are cold and hungry. People don't revolt when they couldn't buy the newest model of Lexus.
Yawn.. Didn't the good book say (no, that aint Chairman Mao's lil red book) that "Man does not live by bread alone?"TonyMontana wrote:People revolt when they are cold and hungry. People don't revolt when they couldn't buy the newest model of Lexus.
Yawn. We've heard these arguments 1000000000 times before. Haven't we? To what avail, exactly? China's banks are incapable of facing either a liquidity or a solvency crisis. Only. Worst case, all the bondholders will simply 'disappear' one fine day before crisis threatens to erupt. Or, choose to voluntarily give up their claims. Wait, do chinese banks even have bondholders? Capital is raised directly from treasury, is it not? CCP can order up enormous amounts of fresh printing and direct transfers to offset losses. You have to give it to the genius of the chinese economic system. It is indeed as failure proof as it is fool proof. Only.Moody's rating agency is concerned that China is powering its economic growth by raising the gearing of the banking system, leaving the country exposed if the outlook darkens. The banks are expanding their balance sheets rapidly through higher leverage – a policy that relies entirely on the continuance of torrid growth. "Pain lies ahead if China's economic growth slows and the banking business model cannot adjust accordingly in time," said Yvonne Zhang, the agency's senior China analyst.
More unsubstantiated D&G. There's nothing to worry about. If we can see it, surely Beijingos can see it too. and if they have seen it, they have planned for it. No problemo, I say.Moody's said China Investment Corporation (CIC), the country's sovereign wealth fund, borrowed $8bn (£5.1bn) last week to recapitalise three state-owned banks, using debt rather than genuine equity to boost bank capital. The agency said that beefing up the banks by this method is "credit negative" for China as a whole: "The increases in assets and equity are artificial and without real economic substance. The increase in reported equity enables the banks to lend more and effectively leverages up the system."
The agency does not explore why the CIC is resorting to debt to carry out these transactions, but the practice looks bizarre from the outside and prompts questions over the resources of the fund itself. Concerns are mounting about the opaque operations of China's banks. The regulator ordered them to carry out a stress test this month based on a 60pc fall in property prices. It is probing $1 trillion of local government loans at risk of impairment.
I have been watching our esteemed Chinese lifafa for 3-4 days now, he goes around like a locomotive and is really disrupting any chain of thought/discussion and yes he has on more than one occasion selectively quoted stuff.I guess he doesn't bother to at least read what he is quoting.shyam wrote: Do you selective ignore arguments?
There are reports that CPC belives that if GDP growth comes below 8%(?) there could be serious social repurcussions.
Let me haha you back.Raja Bose wrote:Because My Dear, regardless of how "high" of a station your country gets to, if you forget the basics (Econ 101), you will come crashing down. Look at US and its housing crisis. Haha indeed.Waylan wrote:I came back five years later China moving on to higher station that guy is still stuck with Econ 101. Next five years China will be moving on to even higher station and he still will be talking Econ 101. Haha.
Ok. Answer this question first and I will give you a clear answer to your question.One more thing, a few guys here quoted stuff like Solow and factor productivity blah blah blah. How do you know what they are saying is right, assuming you know the real stuff ? By what measure?
Everyone knows CPC = Captialism Party of China, You don't know.vina wrote:Ok. Answer this question first and I will give you a clear answer to your question.One more thing, a few guys here quoted stuff like Solow and factor productivity blah blah blah. How do you know what they are saying is right, assuming you know the real stuff ? By what measure?
How do you that the Maoist interpretation Marxism-Leninism is correct? By what measure?
How do you know that Marxism-Leninism /Socialism itself is correct? By what measure?
How do you believe in the eventual "triumph" of the "revolution" and the "inevitable" evolution of a communist society? By what measure , when all empirical evidence points to the contrary ?
If you answer that any of the above are not something you believe in, then you must answer why PRC follows "socialism with Chinese Characteristics"
I've told you that private enterprise could enter the steeling and airline etc. You pretend that you just doesn't see. In fact only banking system are controlled over the "commanding heights", same as USA banking are controlled under FED.vina wrote:And specifically why do you believe that the command economy is the better model or more specifically why should the state have control over the "commanding heights" /large swathes of the economy ?
Also finally why should anyone buy the entire commie/socialist ideology when there are not even squiggly equations but writings and papers of a brilliant economist who writes in very dense and thick German with zero math or anything, but long list of assertions over the "inevitability" of a communist society.
And also why the entire pantheon in the poster below are right?By what measure ?
I thought you were leaving this pointless discussion.But in your true style undoubtedly learn't from the great commie master's, you go on to post three more times.What is the fatal attraction that you have here? At least have the courtesy of following your own word's.Waylan wrote:The simple fact is it's pointless to have any discussion at all on this topic. Nobody learns anything and the real benefit of reading these random whimsical posts are that readers are always in disagreement with posters and vice versa along racial lines. But it's important to lift up your bruised ego and so go ahead and start writing another random whimsical post, just like this one. haha.
Ten of the suspects were senior executives at Alfred L Wolff, a German company, which allegedly bought cheap Chinese honey and, en route to the US, filtered out "pollen and other trace elements that could indicate that the honey originated from China", according to the charge sheet.
Some of the honey was mixed with Indian honey to disguise its origin, or adulterated with antibiotics, in an attempt to avoid paying $80m in import duties.
continuing saga of car journey in the panda land.krisna wrote:18 miles long traffic jam north of beijingdlagon sized problem for the dlagon because ofState media said the latest jam on the Beijing-Tibet highway was caused by an accident and road maintenance.The main reason traffic has increased on the partially four-lane highway is the opening of coal mines in the northwest, vital for the booming economy, which this month surpassed Japan’s in size and is now second only to America’s.
Another greata huge number of coal lorries have to travel daily from Inner Mongolia in order to ensure a constant supply for the country's coal-burning power plants, which provide more than half of its electricity.
There are 2 chinas- one in city is rich and one in rural area is poor. The rich china does not know much about the rural cousin.Two nights earlier, He Xiongfei, a noted private publisher, had handed me his latest book: “The Good Grain People” by Aisin Gioro Wei Ran.
The book describes the beginning of Mr. Wei’s 25-year project, dubbed “Ten-Thousand Village Journey,” begun in 2006, to visit thousands of villages and document the poverty he sees.
There’s a palpable sense of social tension in China these days, a shadow side to the triumphalism of its spectacular economic rise. Policy makers and economists frequently single out the by-now glaring rich-poor gap as a key factor. Increasingly, the poor are resentful, and the wealthy barricade themselves in walled compounds, hire bodyguards or send their families overseas.
A new study suggests the disparity might be even larger. why is it soOfficial data put the richest 10 percent of Chinese at 23 times richer than the poorest 10 percent. By comparison, the United Nations assesses Colombia’s richest-poorest 10 percent gap at 60.4, the United States’ at 15.9 and Germany’s at 6.9.
People are concealing income amounting to a stunning 9.3 trillion renminbi, up to 30 percent of reported gross domestic product, according to the study, sponsored by Credit Suisse and written by Wang Xiaolu, an economist. Eighty percent of that hidden income, it says, is owned by the already-rich and is most likely “illegal or quasi-illegal.”
Every country is the same,” he said. “There are rich and poor people. We need the rich people to help us develop. There is so much they can do.”
krisna wrote:A new study suggests the disparity might be even larger. why is it soOfficial data put the richest 10 percent of Chinese at 23 times richer than the poorest 10 percent. By comparison, the United Nations assesses Colombia’s richest-poorest 10 percent gap at 60.4, the United States’ at 15.9 and Germany’s at 6.9.People are concealing income amounting to a stunning 9.3 trillion renminbi, up to 30 percent of reported gross domestic product, according to the study, sponsored by Credit Suisse and written by Wang Xiaolu, an economist. Eighty percent of that hidden income, it says, is owned by the already-rich and is most likely “illegal or quasi-illegal.”Every country is the same,” he said. “There are rich and poor people. We need the rich people to help us develop. There is so much they can do.”
Theo_Fidel wrote: Vina,
I would hesitate to say the Chinese economy is mixed. This would imply there are multiple poles of control. There is only one pole of control, the state. The private economy is tolerated and has no control. For instance the private eonomy has produced few billionaires. Most have come from within the CPC or officialdom.
Even the private economy is predicated on cheap inputs for its success. The best test for this is to imagine moving it to another country. Silicon valley would be just as innovative if it was plunked down in Siberia. Guangdong, not so much.
It is a source of mirth to think the Panda robots think their economy to be a market based one.
Has Zhou been sighted after the Stratfor report came out?. If not, then there is definitely something cooking.For those seeking an update on today rumor du jour, here is Stratfor with some additional insights, if nothing definitive yet.But before we get into that, we have received the following update from our Chinese media readers across the Pacific: "Here is the link of the Ming Pao report. http://inews.mingpao.com/htm/INews/2010 ... 11502c.htm It says that "China may punish Zhou because China lost $430 billion foreign exchange on its Fannie and Freddie bond investment". It doesn't say anything about U.S. Treasury Bonds. The truth is that many Chinese thought China lost all its investment in Fannie and Freddie after they were delisted from NYSE. It is also wrong because China doesn't invest with their stocks." All in all, seems like lots of confusion pretty much everywhere, although the market is not taking any chances, with China's 1 Month Repo exploding by nearly 50%.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/where- ... -surges-50
+1Theo_Fidel wrote:Suggest we ignore the Panda Bots and have a conversation with each other.
Doing my bit for China's GDP eh.naren wrote:Man, I envy the pandabots. They get to BRF all day and get paid for it !!!
+2Theo_Fidel wrote:Suggest we ignore the Panda Bots and have a conversation with each other.
+3Manishw wrote:+2Theo_Fidel wrote:Suggest we ignore the Panda Bots and have a conversation with each other.
This is from Bloomberg, dated August 31, 2010James B wrote:Where In The World Is Zhou Xiaochuan?
Has Zhou been sighted after the Stratfor report came out?. If not, then there is definitely something cooking.For those seeking an update on today rumor du jour, here is Stratfor with some additional insights, if nothing definitive yet.But before we get into that, we have received the following update from our Chinese media readers across the Pacific: "Here is the link of the Ming Pao report. http://inews.mingpao.com/htm/INews/2010 ... 11502c.htm It says that "China may punish Zhou because China lost $430 billion foreign exchange on its Fannie and Freddie bond investment". It doesn't say anything about U.S. Treasury Bonds. The truth is that many Chinese thought China lost all its investment in Fannie and Freddie after they were delisted from NYSE. It is also wrong because China doesn't invest with their stocks." All in all, seems like lots of confusion pretty much everywhere, although the market is not taking any chances, with China's 1 Month Repo exploding by nearly 50%.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/where- ... -surges-50
Japan’s financial regulator confirmed that its chief met with Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan in Beijing yesterday amid speculation the head of the People’s Bank of China had left the country.
The People’s Bank of China posted a photograph of Zhou meeting Jimi on its website yesterday. Another picture of the Chinese central banker yesterday meeting former Italian Finance Minister Tommaso Padoa Schioppa was also posted on the website.
Two unidentified U.S. government officials said Zhou was not in U.S. custody, the Washington Post reported on its website. Stratfor said in a posting today that Zhou hadn’t left China for the U.S., without identifying the source of its information.
+3Manishw wrote:+2Theo_Fidel wrote:Suggest we ignore the Panda Bots and have a conversation with each other.
TonyMontana wrote:
+3
Zing! I see what you did there. Well played.shyam wrote:
+3
