The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc) - II

habal · Post by **habal** » 18 Feb 2016 16:03

why can't they just fly above black-sea -> Iran -> Iraq or do they come from eastern side of russia.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 18 Feb 2016 16:27

Al Masdar reporting Kinsabba has been liberated by SAA+ from the terrorists.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sy ... n-latakia/

Minutes ago in the Latakia Governorate’s northeastern countryside, the Syrian Arab Army’s 103rd Brigade (commando brigade) of the Republican Guard – backed by Fouj Al-Mughawayr Al-Bahar (Syrian Marines), Liwaa Suqour Al-Sahra (Desert Hawks Brigade), the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), and the National Defense Forces (NDF) – have imposed full control over the strategic village of Kinsibba after a 72 hour long battle with the extremist rebels of Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group), Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, and the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

The Syrian Commandos and their allies were able to break-through the rebel defenses inside the village this morning after surrounding Kinsibba from three different flanks last night.

Similar to the capture of Al-Rabi’yah in Jabal Al-Turkmen (Turkmen Mountains), the Syrian Armed Forces surrounded the village from three different flanks in order to give the rebels one outlet to retreat; this military contingency is premised on the idea that it would shorten the battle and avoid immense bloodshed.

With the capture of Kinsibba this morning, the Syrian Armed Forces are now within striking distance of the strategic city of Jisr Al-Shughour in the Idlib Governorate.

However, before they shift their focus to Jisr Al-Shughour, they will have to capture the village of Kabani, which is located just west of the rebel stronghold at Al-Sirmaniyah.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sy ... n-latakia/ | Al-Masdar News

This village Kabani lies (almost) on the path from Sirmaniyah to Jisr Al Shughour. Sirmaniyah is the closest point where SAA is located from Jisr Al Shughour.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Feb 2016 17:30

habal wrote:why can't they just fly above black-sea -> Iran -> Iraq or do they come from eastern side of russia.

they can do that from usual engels saratov or fwd kola peninsula bases but distance too short for ultra long range training. plus it needles the uk on the way out.

like the sarmat and yars these are not just weapons but statements.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 18 Feb 2016 18:30

The shadow air-war taking place between the two NATO members,Turkey and Greece.

A handout photo by Hellenic Airforce shows two Greek F-16 fighters flying over the Aegean sea
Battle Over the Aegean: The Undeclared Greco-Turkish Air War
18.02.2016

On February 15, six Turkish fighter jets and a Navy transport plane violated Greek airspace over island territories in the eastern Aegean Sea nearly two dozen times. Commenting on the latest violation, Russian military analyst Alexei Kupriyanov decided to take a look back at the recent history of the decades-long conflict between Athens and Ankara.

The reported airspace violations earlier this week took place between the islands of Chios and Samos in the eastern Aegean, and between Lemnos and Lesbos, in the Sea's northeast. According to Greece's General Staff, Turkish aircraft violated Greek airspace 22 times in a period of 24 hours. Two of the Turkish planes were reported to be armed, and Greek military officials confirmed that two "virtual dogfights" took place between Turkish and Greek aircraft after Greek patrols intercepted the violators.

The incident was far from the first time that Turkish aircraft violated Greek airspace, with Greek media earlier calculating that in 2015 alone, Turkey had violated Greek airspace 1,375 times, with the transgressing aircraft armed and prepared for combat in 135 of those incidents.
The eastern Aegean Sea.

Turkey Violates Greek Airspace 22 Times Within 24 Hours
Turkey, it bears keeping in mind, has refused to sign the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea of 1982, which enshrines a 12 nautical mile (22 km) standard of territorial waters surrounding island territories. In 1995, Ankara threatened that an attempt by Athens to make good on the 12 nautical mile limit prescribed by the UN Treaty would constitute a cacus belli. Greece, for its part, condemned the Turkish ultimatum as a violation of the UN Charter.

Commenting on the history of the present conflict between the two countries, Lenta.ru journalist and military analyst Alexei Kupriyanov recalled that the current dispute in the Aegean is part of a struggle stretching back centuries, from the Ottoman capture of Constantinople in 1453, to centuries of Ottoman Turkish occupation of Greece, to multiple wars in the 19th and 20th centuries, to Turkey's invasion and occupation of northern Cyprus in 1974.

"Political disputes," the journalist recalled, "have recently been exacerbated by economic disagreements. After oil was found on the Aegean Sea's continental shelf, questions over the ownership of uninhabited islands took on extraordinary importance. Both Greece and Turkey issued permits to their companies to extract oil in disputed waters, sending research vessels to the area, and accusing one another of trying to gain control over the lion's share of the oil-bearing shelf."

"And neither NATO, nor the International Court of Arbitration, nor the UN Security Council, have been able to persuade Athens and Ankara to reach a compromise." So far, the journalist notes, "the conflict has never reached a hot phase: during the most critical moments, NATO's leadership intervened." Nevertheless, over the past twenty years, the threat of war has hung over the Aegean like the Sword of Damocles.

Dogfights Over the Aegean

"Simulated air battles, or dogfights – have become the main way for the two countries to demonstrate their territorial claims," Kupriyanov recalled. "Greek Air Force F-16s and Mirages have intercepted Turkish F-16s and engaged in dangerous maneuvers, trying to get on the tail of the enemy to expel him from the disputed area. At times pilots would keep each other in each other's sights for minutes at a time. The 'contest' of nerves is made particularly acute by the fact that [often], the planes on both sides are fully armed."

"For the most part, the dogfights have taken place over the islands of Lesbos, Chios, Samos and the Dodecanese archipelago. Often, tourists who spend their holidays in the Greek resorts could simultaneously 'enjoy' simulated air battles taking place over their heads."
The island groups of the Aegean Sea.

"Mostly," the military analyst explained, "Turkish pilots have been the ones to violate Greek airspace, but at times the Greeks too have flown into Turkish airspace, usually in the course of turning around after kicking the Turks out. Neither Athens nor Ankara have recognized each other's airspace violations, even though after each incident the General Staff of the affected party traditionally releases a statement publically censuring, angrily denouncing and strongly resenting [the violation]."

"At times, such simulated air battles have led to tragedy. On June 18, 1992, a Greek Mirage engaged in a dogfight with two Turkish F-16s at an extremely low altitude over the island of Agios Efstratios crashed, resulting in the death of its pilot."

NATO Members on the Brink of War Over a Pair of Uninhabited Rocks
Turkey bans Greek PM Tsipras' plane from entering airspace

Unfriendly Skies: Turkey Prevents Greek PM Tsipras From Entering Airspace
"For a long time," Kupriyanov recalls, "the international community remained blissfully ignorant of the Greco-Turkish dispute: few were interested in the obscure maneuvers over the Aegean Sea and the recriminations of the two countries' general staffs. But everything changed in 1996, when the two NATO member countries found themselves on the brink of war."

"The crisis was caused by a navigational error by the captain of the Turkish cargo ship Figen Akat, which saw the ship run ashore on one of the two islands of Imia, drawn on Turkish maps under the name Kardak. These are just two uninhabited pieces of land jutting out of the sea, the Greek sovereignty over which no one had previously disputed. After running ashore, the captain of the cargo ship refused Greek aid, claiming that he was in Turkish territorial waters, and turning to Turkish emergency services for help."

"After four days, Turkey officially declared that Kardak was its territory, which followed the exchange of angry diplomatic notes. The Greek press saw the unfolding of a patriotic campaign, [which prompted] the mayor of the neighboring island of Kalymnos, accompanied by three other Greek citizens, including a priest, to raise a Greek flag on the island on January 26, 1996."

"But it did not fly there long. The next day, Turkish journalists from the Hurriyet daily newspaper arrived, lowering the Greek flag and raising a Turkish one. The entire ceremony was broadcast on Turkish television, causing a surge of patriotism among Turks. A day later, a group of Greek commandos secretly landed on the island, again raising the country's flag."

"The leaders of both countries, Costas Simitis and Tansu Ciller, exchanged sharp words. Both sides quickly pulled warships up to the disputed islands. On January 30, after a Turkish frigate violated Greek territorial waters and aimed its weapons at a Greek gunboat, and a Turkish Navy helicopter flew at low altitude over the disputed islands, the Greek Navy left its harbors at Piraeus and began to deploy across the Aegean Sea."

A war plane crashes in flames in a mountainous area in northern Syria after it was shot down by Turkish fighter jets near the Turkish-Syrian border

Russian PM: Turkey 'Set Up' NATO by Downing Russian Jet
"Early on the morning of January 31, the Greek Navy frigate Navarino launched a reconnaissance helicopter with three pilots on board. Flying over western Imia, the pilots reported that they had seen armed men raising the Turkish flag (they turned out to be Turkish commandos who had landed on the island at night). After that, communication with the helicopter was lost."

"The nerves of sailors on both sides were on edge," Kupriyanov notes. "Politicians in Ankara and Athens realized that they had come to the edge of the precipice, with both sides deciding not to make the incident public: if the press were to find out, the situation could spiral out of control."

As a result, the United States was forced to intervene. "The White House had realized that pushed just a little more, the two NATO members providing cover for the alliance's southern flank would start a war against one another. The settlement plan was worked out with the participation of President Bill Clinton…In the end, the two countries agreed to withdraw troops and to restore the status quo. However, neither side has given up its claim to the disputed islands."

"To this day, many in Greece are convinced that their helicopter was shot down by Turkish special forces, and that the official version – that the chopper crashed due to a technical fault, was conceived in retrospect to calm the public. The helicopter's pilots are considered national heroes by the Greek right."

"In January 2016, Panos Kammenos, Greece's new defense minister and the leader of the right-wing Independent Greeks party, visited the islands to honor the memory of the pilots. As he laid flowers over their gravestone, a pair of Turkish jet fighters roared overhead, demonstrating that the dispute over the islands continues."

Cover-ups in the Secret War Over the Aegean

The journalist suggests that the real or perceived cover-up regarding casualties "has become a kind of a hallmark of the Greco-Turkish crisis in the Aegean."

"Perhaps the best example was the incident which took place on October 8, 1996, eight months after the conflict over Imia. A Turkish F-16 taking off from an air base in the province of Balikesir and carrying out a training flight crashed near the island of Chios in Greek airspace. One of the pilots, Colonel Osman Chilekli, managed to eject. He was picked up by a Greek rescue helicopter and handed over to the Turkish side. The co-pilot, Captain Nail Erdogan, was declared missing. His body was never found."

NATO Refuses to Comment on Turkey YPG Shelling, Denies Involvement in Syria
"Almost immediately, Erdogan's relatives declared that the authorities are hiding the truth, and that the plane was shot down by the Greek Air Force. The government categorically denied this claim. However, 16 years later, Colonel Chilekli, who had previously refused to speak to the media, said that his fighter was indeed shot down by a Greek missile. 'This incident was a disgrace for our armed forces – this is why we kept silent for so long', the pilot said. 'Erdogan's family was told the truth in private. But in this case, as in others, many mysteries remain', he added."

Following Chilekli's revelation, Turkish authorities finally broke the conspiracy of silence, with current defense minister Ismet Yilmaz confirming in 2012 that the Turkish F-16 had been hit by a Greek Mirage 2000 by a R.550 Magic II air-to-air missile.

"In the 20 years since the incident, Greek and Turkish journalists established a variety of theories about Captain Erdogan's death…But there are still many uncertainties in the case. The Turks claim that the F-16 was not armed, and that consequently, its destruction was cold-blooded murder. The Greeks say that the aircraft was armed, that it was accompanied by another plane, that it got into a dogfight, and that the Greek pilot pressed the trigger accidentally."

Following the October 8, 1996 incident, Greek and Turkish aircraft often flew on patrols without missiles on board for many years. "However, as subsequent events would show, this would not help matters."

Turkish Fighter Jets Violate Greek Airspace Over Aegean Sea… Again
"On May 23, 2006, two Turkish F-16s and an F-4 reconnaissance aircraft entered neutral territory over islands in the southern Aegean at an altitude of 8,200 meters, without giving prior notice to Greek air traffic controllers. Two Greek F-16s were sent to intercept the Turks over the island of Karpathos. A traditional 'dogfight' ensued, ending in tragedy: the Greek and Turkish planes collided," resulting in the ejection of the Turkish pilot, and the death of Greek pilot Costas Iliakis.

"It's not exactly clear what happened in the skies over Karpathos," the journalist recalled. "Greek nationalists claim that Iliakis rammed the Turkish plane on purpose, eliminating the aggressor at the cost of his own life. Leftist journalists assume it to have been an accident. In any case, after the incident the planes of the Greek and Turkish Air Force began to fly armed again."

"In the coming years, the undeclared war over the Aegean would see new victims. In 2007, a Turkish pilot would crash during a training flight. In 2010, two Greek pilots would die due to an error during maneuvers at extremely close range."

Over a Thousand Violations Each Year
A Su-34 multifunctional strike bomber of the Russian Aerospace Force takes off from the Hemeimeem Air Base in the Syrian province of Latakia.

Turkey Fails to Provide Evidence of 'Airspace Violations' by Russian Planes
"It is no surprise," Kupriyanov noted, "that after the Turks shot down a Russian bomber [over Syria], in the course of his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias expressed his condolences and solidarity with Moscow. Kotzias complained about the persistent violations of Greek air space by Turkish jets. Until recently, Greek air traffic controllers recorded an average of 1,500 cases of airspace violation by Turkish aircraft [per year]."

"Such numbers shouldn't surprise anyone. For example, in July 2015, six Turkish planes entered Greece's airspace. Before four Greek fighters could get on their tail, the Turks managed to break the air boundary at least 20 times. A similar incident occurred in December of 2015 and now, recently, in February 2016."

Unfortunately, the journalist warned, "the situation is becoming more and more reminiscent of that of 1995: Daily, Greek fighters are forced to take to the skies to intercept Turkish intruders, armed. And who knows whether and when another Greek pilot's trigger finger might slip."

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/military/2016021 ... z40WngSVLF

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 18 Feb 2016 18:35

http://sputniknews.com/politics/2016021 ... syria.html

Why are Riyadh, Ankara Adding Fuel to the Fire in Syria?
18.02.2016

The world is teetering on the edge of a wider war in Syria, experts say; the question remains whether Saudi Arabia and Turkey's saber-rattling on Syria's borders are just a form of psychological intimidation or part of a NATO strategy aimed at launching a foreign intervention.

MiG-23 aircraft of the Syrian Air Force at the Hama airbase near the city of Hama, Syria's Hama Province

Shell Shocked: Militants Retreat From Strategic Towns in Aleppo Province
One by one, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), with the help of Russia's Air Force, has severed the supply lines of Daesh, the al-Nusra Front and related militant factions around Aleppo and along the Turkish-Syrian border. Meanwhile, Kurdish troops and the Syrian Democratic Forces continue to battle Islamist militants for control of Azaz in northern Aleppo Province, despite repeated missile attacks from Turkish troops stationed on the opposite side of the border, less than 10 km away.

In addition to Turkish President Erdogan's continuing war against Kurds both in Syria and his own country, it seems that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are attempting to throw a monkey wrench in the Russo-Syrian advance: the countries have pledged to kick off a ground operation in Syria, should Washington give its blessing.

The question then arises: what lies beneath the plan?

"An invasion into Syria would constitute an act of war — and beyond that — affirmation that NATO was behind the ISIS (Daesh) menace from the beginning. While leaks like that of the United States' own Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in 2015 have exposed this rhetorically, a NATO invasion of Syria to save an ISIS stronghold from destruction would prove it demonstrably," Bangkok-based geopolitical analyst Tony Cartalucci writes in his article for New Eastern Outlook.

Destruction in Homs, Syria

Destroy Syria… Get Others to Pay
The analyst notes that the fact that Washington has repeatedly tried to distance itself politically from Turkey and Saudi Arabia may indicate "a possible attempt to produce plausible deniability ahead of a much larger provocation or intervention."

Cartalucci refers to the fact that back in 2009 US hawks offered a plan that envisaged an apparent "unilateral" attack by Israel against Iran to trigger Tehran's retaliation. It was supposed that Iran's move would be used by Washington as a pretext for an invasion.

"A similar strategy appears to be materializing along Syria's borders today," Cartalucci warns.

However, according to British geopolitical analyst and Sputnik columnist Finian Cunningham, Washington would restrain itself from allowing Saudis and Turks to go to war in Syria.

In an interview with Radio Sputnik, Cunningham suggested that Ankara and Riyadh's pledge to deploy boots on the ground in Syria is just psychological intimidation towards Damascus and Moscow to obtain concessions from them in terms of the political process.

It remains unclear at that stage whether it is a psychological operation or if they are really intent on going in, he noted.

On the other hand, given the nature of the Riyadh regime and the Ankara regime everything is possible, he stressed citing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who dubbed them as "reckless" and "lawless."

"Given the nature of these regimes and desperate situation they are in because they are losing the covert war, they could bomb the way into a wider war that could drag in several international actors and in particular Washington confronting Russia," Cunningham said.

President Barack Obama and new Saudi Arabian King, Salman bin Abdul Aziz, are photographed as they shake hands in a bilateral meeting at Erga Palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2015

Riyadh on the Brink: Washington Must Prepare for Collapse of its Mideast 'Lynchpin'
The analyst called attention to the fact that Washington has publicly endorsed Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf Arab states' mobilization, de facto giving a green light to a possible invasion of Syria.

"Washington has publicly approved or given a kind of consent to this mobilization but if you [look] at recent interviews the Saudi foreign minister emphasized that it's conditional on full and explicit "go ahead" from Washington. So, would Washington actually give it this consent, I don't know… I think that Washington would restrain itself from allowing the Saudis and the Turks to actually go in to Syria given the consequences," the British analyst emphasized referring to the possibility of a wider conflict in the region.

Both analysts underscore that Washington and major European states have failed to condemn Turkey for shelling northern Syria, in particular the pivotal Syrian city of Azaz.

Cunningham noted that Ankara's military action is apparently aimed at giving jihadi mercenaries on the ground some kind of cover.

"The city is on the verge of being overrun by Kurdish fighters who will for all intents and purposes shut down one of ISIS' [Daesh's] last remaining logistical hubs supplying their fighters in Syria from Turkey," Cartalucci explains.

In this Friday, Sept. 21, 2012 file photo, Libyan followers of Ansar al-Shariah Brigades and other Islamic militias, hold a demonstration against a film and a cartoon denigrating the Prophet Muhammad in Benghazi

Syrian Peace Impossible Until West 'Stops Funding Terrorists on the Ground'
At the same time, Turkey and its foreign backers are trying to pin the blame on Moscow for civilian deaths in Syria, the British analyst said, referring to groundless allegations that Russian jets destroyed a hospital in Syria supported by the charity organization Medecins Sans Frontieres(MSF).

According to Cunningham, given Ankara's own glaring misdeed, Turkish accusations against Russia are the height of hypocrisy.

The truth of the matter is that Turkey is outraged by the Russo-Syrian dramatic advance that has displaced Ankara-backed Islamists and allowed the Syrian Arab Army to retake strategic territories.

"While the US and Europe attempt to distance themselves from Turkey, they have at the same time committed to a campaign of disinformation attempting to frame ongoing [Russo-Syrian] security operations moving ever closer toward Turkey's border as 'targeting civilians' and attacking 'moderate rebels' at the expense of fighting ISIS," Cartalucci stresses, adding that the next few days would show whether or not the Syrian conflict will escalate into a greater war.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/politics/2016021 ... z40WpO5MEY

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Feb 2016 18:39

there is a famous place called Al-Ghab plains all will soon know of. it is a 50km long low lying valley N-S which starts 40km NW of Hama and goes vertically as a wedge between Idlib and latakia.
it was a swamp earlier, but drained and made into farmland. footage exists of rus Hinds flying low and firing over this plain which is a conduit for rebels to move between Hama and northern areas.

here a SAA party lays a ambush probably with tank rounds + 1 ATGM and takes out a rebel party

one attack on Jisr al Shugur will come from ghab plains which ends at the M4 barely 2km to the south. the other attack will come from the west along M4

ghab plain is the big vertical green thing in the map
https://www.google.co.in/maps/@35.70343 ... .75z?hl=en

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 18 Feb 2016 18:51

Where is the infamous Bekaa Valley, where the Israelis downed 80 planes and destroyed the entire SAM network for the loss of 1 F-16 back in 1982?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Feb 2016 19:07

^^ bekaa valley is on the border of syria and israel south of damascus near the golan heights somewhere.

ISIS war party moving out in salahuddin province Iraq (tikrit - baiji belt) - you can see a armoured hummer with a gun turret at the tail of the toyotas convoy. they look happy and motivated.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=125_1455734141

part 2 - this convoy night attack on some shia militia checkpost going by the pics of moqtada al sadr
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=e03_1455730311

and that hateful and mournful constant chanting in the background and takbeer Aoa takbeer AoA

VBIED attack on kurdish checkpost also. looks at size of blast and mushroom cloud - atleast equivalent to a 1000kg bomb

couple of AoA guys sound like they will burst a vein from the screaming

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Feb 2016 19:08

^^ watch with high sound for full effect above

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Feb 2016 19:15

these fast moving units
- high mobility 4x4 pickup trucks
- heavier loads for the hummers
- truck bed mounted HMG or zsu-23-2
- hand held light mortars
- people's camo with dried mud covering
- scouts and skirmishers on powerful 250cc dirt bikes
- highly motivated people
- can live off land by foraging and looting
- economical diesel fuel on all vehicles
- everyone including the cooks and car mechanics can fight 100% teeth:tail ratio
- flat hierarchy , distributed mesh network chain of command resilient to any failure since the main goal is dead simple - kill any and all kafirs!
- small drones and laptops/ipads for downlink recon
- immune to comms jamming - missions are free form

this is almost like SOCOM raiding unit. definitely the future of bush warfare vs ponderous conventional armies with their "chain of command" and massive logistical tail and low teeth:tail ratio

modern equivalent of the fast moving mongol/turki kabila cavalry laying waste to the countryside.

its not easy to meet and defeat this kind of attack. for one thing you need very good ATGM defences to take out the initial VBIEDs and very well drilled and motivated soldiers of your own to beat the swarming trailing attack. the 104 republican guard @ deir azzor has been fighting these devils for years now and seem to got the measure of it - answering brutality with their own .... skull and crossed sword logo ... very hardboiled set of people.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 18 Feb 2016 19:26

didn't see a whole lot of humvees in above video. they sure used ford f-250 crew cabs as vbed's though.......

Sanju · Post by **Sanju** » 18 Feb 2016 19:39

UlanBatori wrote:Where is the infamous Bekaa Valley, where the Israelis downed 80 planes and destroyed the entire SAM network for the loss of 1 F-16 back in 1982?

Lebanon

The Beqaa is located about 30 km (19 mi) east of Beirut. The valley is situated between Mount Lebanon to the west and Anti-Lebanon mountains to the east. It forms the northeasternmost extension of the Great Rift Valley, which stretches from Syria to the Red Sea. Beqaa Valley is about 120 kilometres (75 mi) in length and has an average width of about 16 kilometres (9.9 mi). It has a Mediterranean climate of wet, often snowy winters and dry, warm summers.

habal · Post by **habal** » 18 Feb 2016 20:03

I was wondering which are the real terrorist states in the world, ones which spread discord in neighbourhood. So happens that most of them are either USA or PRC munnas.

1. Turkey
2. Pakistan
3. Saudi Arabia
4. North Korea
5. Ukraine
6. North Sudan
7. Somalia

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Feb 2016 20:11

somalia & sudan is a category all its own - a kind of meteorite that obeys no master and floats on its own steam.

habal · Post by **habal** » 18 Feb 2016 20:44

they are Saudi munna, and North Sudan is also PRC munna. Remember how North Sudan, Somalia & Djibouti cut ties with Iran on instructions from Saudi.

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/01/20 ... -Iran-ties
Somalia lends support to Saudi-led fight against Houthis in Yemen
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/a ... this-yemen

North Sudan may even have family ties with Saudi Arabs, every noticed that the executioners in Friday market square are always african/sundanese types.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Feb 2016 20:57

pkk has cut the kirkuk to turkey oil pipe

turkey shells ypg in hasakah

sdf cuts road from mosul to al shahdadi

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 18 Feb 2016 22:03

PetoLucem maps show most of the western half of the Al Ghab plains from North (abeam Sirmaniyah) to South with SAA. Coming out if the mountains of Lattakia to the plains of Al Ghab should make it easier for the advancing army and also lower the numbers required for the assault.

An interesting feature of the YPG attack on ISIS targets near Ash Shaddadi town is that if the town falls to YPG, it may be the closest path yet to Dier Ez Zor.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 18 Feb 2016 22:07

Why Turkey is losing hope in Syrian border town of Azaz
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origina ... z40Xeuwj6j

In the first, Turkey is launching heavy artillery fire at Syrian Democratic Forces advancing toward Azaz in northwestern Syria, while declaring that the objective is to stop the advances of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). On the second front, Turkey is allowing militants to cross into Syria, since the Syrian army cut off the Aleppo-Kilis corridor.Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, when asked last week if Turkey would do anything to reopen the corridor, aroused curiosity by replying, “Wait for a few days; you will get your answer.” Naturally, his cryptic response fanned the debate over whether a military intervention is in the making.Al-Monitor waited, and this is what we saw: The YPG first captured the Tishrin Dam south of Jarablus, Syria, crossed to the west of the Euphrates River and halted its advance. We are all aware that the Turkish government, to prevent the YPG from moving to the Jarablus-Rai region where the Islamic State maintains its only two border crossings to the rest of the world, had drawn a red line at the YPG crossing to the west side of the Euphrates.But instead, the advance came to the east of Afrin toward Azaz. On Feb. 10, the YPG and Jaish al-Thuwar (Army of Revolutionaries), two allied SDF units, seized the Menagh air base south of Azaz and then the nearby villages of Maranaz, Malikiye, Der Jammal and Tell Acar.Turkey, however, made another move that is bound to be controversial. To reinforce Tell Firat, whose defenders were pressed hard, hundreds of militants were taken to Turkey from the Hatay-Reyhanli border and reinserted to Syria from Kilis. The Syrian Human Rights Observatory said 350 militants with light and heavy weapons were transferred to Syria through Turkey. Some of these reinforcements reached Tell Firat, but local sources talking to Al-Monitor on strict condition of anonymity said the number transferred may well be higher.On Feb. 13, the Hawar News Agency in Turkey reported four truckloads of ammunition were transferred to Syria via the Oncupinar/Bab al-Salam border gate. The agency distributed photos of crates marked "MKE11D201-016," which are used by Turkey’s state-owned ammunition maker. Local sources said another crossing used for the illegal transfer of militants via Turkey is the Yayladag border crossing, which has been visibly busier in recent days.Despite all these efforts, the fall of Tell Rifaat to the SDF could not be prevented.
As these field developments unfold, so does the debate on what Turkey is hitting and why. The government came out with three justifications for shelling the Azaz area. Hurriyet cited a report that was distributed at the state's top echelons. It said:After capturing areas near Azaz, the YPG left them to the control of Jaish al-Thuwar and withdrew to Afrin. Some observers in the Turkish government circles interpreted the move as the YPG using Jaish al-Thuwar as a cover. This may be a bit of an overstatement, as the Americans function as a coordinator between these two SDF units.A journalist from Afrin told Al-Monitor that reports from last year that Jabhat al-Nusra had handed over its Azaz positions to Jaish al-Sham were false. He said, “You can tour all of Syria without finding any symbol of al-Nusra's presence. But they are everywhere. They conceal themselves in Ahrar's ranks.”Meanwhile, the Turkish government is working hard to persuade the international coalition to agree to a ground operation that would risk a clash with Russian and Syrian forces. But developments on the ground threaten to upset Turkey’s game plan.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 18 Feb 2016 22:43

Kurds Warn Turkey of ‘Big War’ With Russia If Troops Enter Syria
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... nter-syria

Russia has promised to protect Kurdish fighters in Syria in case of a ground offensive by Turkey, a move that would lead to a “big war,” the Syrian group’s envoy to Moscow said in an interview on Wednesday.“We take this threat very seriously because the ruling party in Turkey is a party of war,” Rodi Osman, head of the Syrian Kurds’ newly-opened representative office said in Kurdish via a Russian interpreter. “Russia will respond if there is an invasion. This isn’t only about the Kurds, they will defend the territorial sovereignty of Syria.”Conflicting interests in Syria have created a dangerous new phase in the country’s five-year war, even as world powers struggle to implement a truce agreement. Turkey fears Kurdish gains along its border will morph into an autonomous state and inspire similar ambitions among its own Kurdish minority. But a ground intervention risks conflict with Russia, which backs the Kurds militarily, and would anger the U.S., which sees the group as a major ally in the fight against Islamic State.“We are continuing to liberate our territory and it would go faster if it wasn’t for Turkey,” Osman said. Russian warplanes are providing support for the Kurdish offensive, which is aimed at securing full control of the Turkish border, while Russia has also promised to support the Syrian Kurds’ goal of federal status, he said.

Russia has said it is helping the Syrian Kurds militarily and Nikolai Kovalyov, a former head of the Federal Security Service, the main successor to the Soviet KGB, said that Russian jets would bomb Turkish troops if they enter Syria.Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said any foreign incursion into Syria would be “illegal” and the Russian response would depend on the situation. Russian airstrikes in northern Syria are succeeding in driving out Turkish-backed rebels, she told a weekly briefing in Moscow on Thursday.The Syrian Kurds are trying to create a Kurdish autonomous region in northern Syria by uniting two territories separated by about 100 kilometers of land controlled by Islamist rebels, according to Anton Lavrov, an independent Russian military analyst.“That is the Syrian Kurds’ dream and the Turks’ worst nightmare,” Lavrov said by phone.
Turkish leaders regard the PYD as the Syrian wing of the PKK, which Turkey and its U.S. and Eur[/b]opean Union allies consider a terrorist organization. But the U.S. disagrees with Turkey about the Syrian Kurds, viewing them as a reliable ally against Islamic State.Davutoglu said on Thursday that Turkey “can’t excuse any NATO ally, including the U.S.” of having “links with a terrorist organization that strikes us in the heart of Turkey.”Turkish attacks on the Syrian Kurds are also further ratcheting up tensions with Russia, which forged a military alliance with the group after Turkey downed a Russian warplane in November on the border with Syria.In addition to providing air support, Russia is supplying ammunition to the Syrian Kurds, according to Syria’s former Deputy Prime Minister Qadri Jamil, a Kurd who is now an opposition leader based in Moscow and is in close contact with the Russian government and the PYD. Syrian government forces are working in tandem with the Syrian Kurds to flush out Islamic State and rebels from the country’s north, he said in an interview.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Feb 2016 06:59

>> An interesting feature of the YPG attack on ISIS targets near Ash Shaddadi town is that if the town falls to YPG, it may be the closest path yet to Dier Ez Zor.

thats why I was speculating above that SDF/YPG has a track2 deal with assad govt to take their help in aleppo while extending them help in east by moving to relieve IS pressure on deir azzor from the back end. they have recently opened a consulate in moscow so co-ordinating with the russians as well.

this also blocks a IS route across nineveh province to mosul that moves men and materials after the loss of sinjar route. i think they use old smuggling routes and gps maps across the flat desert.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Feb 2016 07:22

suicide bomber in iraq suffers a premature detonation...gets shot for his pains
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f3e_1455837287

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 19 Feb 2016 08:05

Pentagon asked Russia to avoid Syrian areas with U.S. Commandos - Feb 19, 2016
http://aranews.net/2016/02/18413/

The Pentagon has asked Russia to stay away from parts of northern Syria where U.S. special operations troops are training local fighters to combat ISIS , military officials said Thursday.

The acknowledgement is significant because the Pentagon has repeatedly stressed it is not cooperating with Moscow as the two powers lead separate air campaigns in war-ravaged Syria.

Lieutenant General Charles Brown, who commands the U.S. air forces in the Middle East, said U.S. officials had asked Moscow to avoid “broad areas” in northern Syria “to maintain a level of safety for our forces that are on the ground.”

He added that Moscow had itself asked the U.S.-led coalition to avoid some of the airfields the Russian military is using.

“They don’t want us flying close to (these,)” Brown said. “Typically, we don’t fly there anyway. So, that hasn’t been an issue.”

Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook said Russia had honored the request, and stressed the Pentagon only provided broad geographic descriptions of where the U.S. troops are, not their precise location.

There was “one instance in which we have asked, for the safety of our special operators, (the Russians) to not engage in that particular geographical area,” Cook said. “We think it’s a reasonable request.” {pl pl we beg you...let us help create more vermin so you can keep bombing them}

The Pentagon last year said it was sending about 50 special operations forces to work with anti-ISIS fighters in Syria, though officials have said next to nothing about their whereabouts and progress since.

The United States has since August 2014 led an international coalition against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

Russia entered the Syria conflict in September, when it began bombing rebels opposed to President Bashar al-Assad. Russia says it is attacking ISIS group and other “terrorists.”

Though coalition and Russian planes generally operate in different parts of the country, military officials fret about the possibility of an unintended clash between the two sides.

The Pentagon has held a series of “deconfliction” talks with Russian counterparts to outline procedures in case of a mishap.

Now is the time Russia can send much awaited Gen Vodkovich (with his 10,000) with similar "reasonable request" so both Russians and Americans can stand guard at the Turkish border such that not a mosquito enters into Syria.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 19 Feb 2016 09:29

A TOW falls flat.

[youtube]m9JLuiW9Dws&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 19 Feb 2016 09:39

The heat of summer is here for ISIS

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel now20 seconds ago
Leith Abou Fadel Retweeted Al-Masdar News
Another ISIS assault repelled by the Syrian Arab Army in Deir Ezzor. 30 ISIS terrorists killed

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel now14 minutes ago
Leith Abou Fadel Retweeted Al-Masdar News
This is probably the best thing that happened today. No one is talking about it, but ISIS is in deep trouble

Al-Masdar News
‏@TheArabSource
Tiger Forces are 7 km away from encircling #ISIS in east #Aleppo http://bit.ly/20HJEZq #Syria

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel now2 hours ago
Leith Abou Fadel Retweeted Al-Masdar News
Great news from the Al-Raqqa countryside! Tal Al-Alam captured - Syrian Armed Forces inch closer to Zakiyah & Marina

Al-Masdar News
‏@TheArabSource
Syrian Air Force destroys #ISIS HQ in Deir Ezzor http://bit.ly/1mKLTh1 #DeirEzzor #Syria

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel now7 hours ago
Leith Abou Fadel Retweeted Al-Masdar News
More bad news for ISIS today: U.S. backed SDF have liberated 40 villages in southern Al-Hasakah

Al-Masdar News
‏@TheArabSource
#ISIS offensive at #Maheen ends in failure; Syrian Army recaptures ... http://bit.ly/1Q3S1wK #Homs #Syria

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel now1 minute ago
LOL ISIS' assault on Maheen ends with the Syrian Army capturing Al-Makasar and Al-Matahin!

All this just from yesterday.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Feb 2016 09:44

leith abou fadel the ceo of al masdar news had gone ballistic on troll who tried to create a fake account on a variant of his name .... giving right left galis to the saudi king as well lol

the utter contempt of the levantantines and persians for the saudis is quite apparent in various forums.

eg
Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel 8h8 hours ago
My "decimated" army is destroying the mujahideen all over Syria. Inshallah you don't mind my pitbull fertilizing your graves with his urine.

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel 6h6 hours ago
800 lashes for apostasy? The Saudi Royal family can kiss my infidel, Levantine ass. I will gladly whip that **** abuser King Salman.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Feb 2016 09:48

ISIS seems to have caved in and abandoned hasakah to fall back on better positions in raqqa + deir and defend their euphrates and deir oil field holdings.

but reports from west speak of the SAA+badr+desert hawks militias slowly capturing the deir oil fields one by one enroute to tabqah.

looks like a call has been made and JN is the new munna to be sheltered by turkiye artillery in north aleppo and idlib while IS is thrown under bus as the sacrificial lamb. if this is true IS will use their assets in turkey to take revenge for sure. as it says in one film "raise no more devils than you can lay down"

saw mad max fury road yesterday - the story writer seems inspired by abrahamic cults like IS - a supreme Khalifa, enforcers (rictus), a religious mufti of sorts who controls the scales of justice (the fattie who got blinded and still fires two guns), child soldiers, lot of enforced labour underclass, violent wierdos like polecats and flamers to back the enforcers and a collection of flat out insane like doof warrior. plus the ruthless use of kidnapped young women as child factories to produce the coveted "khalifa cubs"

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 19 Feb 2016 10:01

In that TOW falls flat video from deejay, it seems they are also targeting a church. That's does not look like a mosque, from personal experience in Syria. A hit of some kind appears to have occurred at the start of the video.

Sid · Post by **Sid** » 19 Feb 2016 10:29

-deleted-

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Feb 2016 11:05

deejay wrote:A TOW falls flat.

[youtube]m9JLuiW9Dws&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

Are these TOW Wire Guided or RF Guided .....dont really see a wire could be latter ?

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 19 Feb 2016 11:49

There seems to be no end to Turkey's and Errdogan's barbarity and all this with the backing of NATO.

https://www.rt.com/news/332951-kurds-bu ... ve-turkey/

150 allegedly 'burned alive by Turkish military' during crackdown on Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)

A member of the Turkish parliament from the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party has accused the military of atrocities in Turkey's southeast, claiming they have ‘burned alive’ more than 150 people trapped in basements.
"In the Cizre district of Sırnak, around 150 people have been burned alive in different buildings by Turkish military forces. Some corpses were found without heads. Some were burned completely, so that autopsy is not possible," Feleknas Uca told Sputnik, adding that “most” of those killed were Kurds.

While Uca’s statements have not been confirmed by RT on the ground, or independently verified by a third party, the MP warned that more people could face a similar fate as more than 200 people remain trapped inside buildings across the region.

"The situation in Diyarbakir is terrible. Its district Sur is seeing its 79th day of curfew. Two hundred people were trapped in basements and Turkey’s special forces won’t rescue them," Uca said.

Turkish security forces have been trying to clear southeastern towns and cities of PKK members since last July, when a two-year cease-fire collapsed. Dozens of civilians continue to be trapped in basements in the Cizre district of Turkey’s Sirnak province. Despite an official announcement that the military op was concluded last week, the curfew remains in place.

The reports of the massacre first surfaced earlier this week when the ANHA news agency, reported the discovery of 115 bodies.

The corpses were so badly burned that relatives were only able to identify 10 out of the 115 bodies found in the Sur and Cudi neighborhoods of Şırnak’s Cizre district. According to the report, DNA samples were taken from the victims to identify the bodies.

...

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 19 Feb 2016 12:18

A video of SAA advance towards Raqqa. No blood and gore, Only weapons firing plus prep. Enjoy the background Tabla.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Feb 2016 12:19

i think turkeys problem is this - kurds are only 10% and sunni turks 87% but kurds occupy nearly 30% of the country
the eastern kurdish part must be relatively very rural and sparesely populated, far away from the tourist circuit

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Feb 2016 12:23

neither IS or SAA seems to have manpower to fight a full fledged war on the raqqa road. ISIS is falling back to line after line of old fortifications and SAA is pressing them slowly back....unable to fix and bypass them with mechanized forces - if that were the case Tabqah could be taken by this weekend given the wide open terrain and all routes open across the desert. even a airborne brigade could finish the job by turning the rear of the ISIS directly at tabqah.

neverthless in 2 weeks they should reach there and I dont see anyone able to change this.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 19 Feb 2016 12:25

Southern Front is reporting that out of 28 killed in ANkara blast, 22 were Turkish pilots. Erdogan is hiding this fact as per them. So was the pilot who shot Su 24 one of them?

http://southfront.org/22-turkish-air-fo ... um=twitter

22 TURKISH AIR FORCE PILOTS KILLED

Original published by Zvezda; translation by J.Hawk

According to Turkish Ulke TV station, the victims of the February 17 terrorist attack in Ankara include 22 Turkish Air Force pilots, out of 28 total fatalities.

Turkish government has not issued an official confirmation but, according to Turkish media, Erdogan is deliberately trying to conceal that fact.

The explosion took place next to the Turkish Armed Forces headquarters building, as well as the parliament and government buildings. The fatalities included 26 military and 2 civilians. Another 60 people were wounded.

No terrorist organization accepted responsibility.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 19 Feb 2016 13:14

Losing 100 air crew just like that is unusual. What the hell were 22 pilots doing near their HQ and parliament.

If true though turkish air force will be smelling vodka everywhere. NATO smato, its polonium in your hukkah day! I doubt they got the very pilot or were even aiming as such. Probably a broader warning. Besides if russia knows who fired the shots, its an open prison for them anywhere anyway.

Unrelated, interesting results from this individual responsibility based approach. Wonder why the weak kneed have never contemplated it. Too many compromised assets? Given what khalistanis did after blue star, the precedents are all there for a reverse approach to not be escalatory.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 19 Feb 2016 13:22

Shreeman ji, it is an option which must be given serious thought.

Meanwhile, YPG is at the gates of Al Shadadi in Hasakah province

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/br ... l-hasakah/

and an interesting quote from the news:

...
ISIS is in big trouble as of now; if they do not find a quick remedy to the SDF’s rapid advance, they will lose their last stronghold in the Al-Hasakah Governorate and quickly endanger their positions in the Deir Ezzor Governorate.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 19 Feb 2016 13:26

Singha wrote:neither IS or SAA seems to have manpower to fight a full fledged war on the raqqa road. ISIS is falling back to line after line of old fortifications and SAA is pressing them slowly back....unable to fix and bypass them with mechanized forces - if that were the case Tabqah could be taken by this weekend given the wide open terrain and all routes open across the desert. even a airborne brigade could finish the job by turning the rear of the ISIS directly at tabqah.

neverthless in 2 weeks they should reach there and I dont see anyone able to change this.

The ground forces arent limited. air cover is. Its a calibrated push back a mile or two per week. gives the russians time to identify new targets and syrians the time to regroup.

busier skies would slow matters. expect busier skies. consequently more of those caspian ballistic missiles erdogan keeps complaining about.

all these towns, they are hamlets from a subcontinent perspective. 10,000-100,000 peacetime population in the larger ones. with refugees etc, empty shells. they could all be flattened overnight. nobody is home except in the besieged islands like nubl/zahraa/ezzor.

there is a lot of calculus being employed. ukraine, what yukraine? yemen, what yemen? sudan? somalia? piracy? boko haram? all gone.

basically tail is wagging the dog, except for turkey and saudi arabia investors who spent moneyon this revolution. any jeehardi of isil worth his name is in libya by now. iraq and syria are worthless sideshows.

russia could escalate and shut things down quicker, but the hyooman rights cries and erdogans speeches will get shriller. and they will anyway.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Feb 2016 13:34

on the raqqa road even 10,000 hamlet is not there. its very hard to find a single hut or two in google earth let alone a proper town. the biggest hamlets are like 20 people on that route. nothing but desert, rough oil truck roads into the oil wells deeper into the desert. its not a very developed place unlike oil extraction areas in the gulf or even iraqi north.

well supported fast moving raiding forces could strike the IS lines in parallel at many points from n different directions and rout them badly, but I suppose you are right, Rus has limited CAS sorties available with only 50ish a/c for all of syria and very few gunship helis so slow match to raqqa....few hills every week...few miles.....they must be around 50k from the river now...as the frontlines move away from hymenim base the transit times to target also increase.

they need to activate some base @ hama and work from there toward palmyra, deir and tabqah....a "southfront" base

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 19 Feb 2016 13:54

I think both Shreeman ji and Singha Ji are correct. Manpower is an issue, with a lot of manpower being used just to man the numerous ectoplasmic frontlines across Syria. Secondly an advancing force will need to have a large enough logistics to not get trapped. Is SAA capable of maintaining those? Third, do all these frontlines leave adequate armour available for any reasonably fast thrust.

With enough MLRS why would they need continous CAS but since MLRS availability is restricted CAS is required and very frequently.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Feb 2016 14:03

dogs of war - todays pile of IS bodies in deir

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbfvQ7mWIAAmOXN.jpg