Muppalla Sir,Muppalla wrote:
One thing I always repeat is that the core vote of parties is always very minimal in India. Core vote of Congress or BJP is actually around 10% only. Everything else comes based on perception, performance, mobilization, demographics. Problem in this discussion always is because of an assumption that congress has 25% or BJP has 30% core votes. I put out my neck and say again that the so called Hindutva vote never crossed 5% even in pure BJP states. Just because someone votes to BJP does not mean he is an ideological BJP/Hindutva person. Such persons never cross 10% of total votes.
In Delhi, the voter characteristics probably are as follows:
(1) Core BJP voter (Hindutva, small businessman, polarized due to Muslim moholla) Non-core voters (Sikhs due to SAD, caste based in the outer Delhi, some middle class voters who are traditional)
(2) Congress voter (Muslim, I-have-to-hate-BJP-no-matter-what types (aka secular), lower middle class, absolute poorer sections, SCs) Non-core voters (Jats due to Hooda, Sikhs due to MMS)
(3) Rest of the voters are split across BSP, JDU and even MDMK gets some votes
This time AAP got BJP's not core voters (some middle class voters who are traditional) and some Congress core (Muslim,lower middle class, absolute poorer sections) and entire congress core ( I-have-to-hate-BJP-no-matter-what types (aka secular) ). In the process BJP also picked up some non-core votes from INC as well.
In summary, we should never consider more than 10% of votes obtained as core vote.
I that case I am living in some other world only. Most of the time when I ask people around me bout their vote the answer is pretty straight forward BJP or Congress because they have been doing it traditionally (family vamily and all that). Some people who don't wanna tell say they 'vote according to candidate'.
Any ways having a huge percentage of floating voters is good in long run.