Bharat Rakshak

Lisa wrote:

DavidD wrote: And what happens to the U.S. when China comes calling for the debt? The same that happens to anyone who owes a ton of money and has to pay it back? Not quite, right? I think your view is a bit too simplistic.

Simplistic, probably yes but practical. How exactly will China come calling
for the debt. I would be grateful if you could go through the modalities so I
could better understand.

If supply and demand was allowed to take their normal course, China's
RMB would have naturally revalued itself and relative to it US Dollar would
have devalued itself. China for purposes of 'competitiveness' manipulated
the system by artificially supporting the Dollars value and then had the
stupidity to buy the very asset they were artificially supporting!

Now they are in a bind, sell the Dollar and devalue the majority of the
assets they have worked so hard for or carry on supporting an asset which
everyone including them knows full well is not really worth its current value.

I have watched this for some 5-7 years and constantly asked myself 'how
can this carry on'. For those better informed then myself, what would have
been the effect of a free market where RMB revalued itself and Dollar
depreciated to compensate for US excesses and uncompetitiveness. I
think US rates would have risen curtailing both easy credit and the
excesses that we recently saw. Who knows probably a simplistic thought.

The buying of the dollar IS the method of artificially supporting the value of the dollar. Do you know who the biggest currency manipulator in the world is? It's not China, but the U.S. The truth is that all nations are currency manipulators, the U.S. is just a particularly bad and hypocritical one. They do it in broad daylight in the form of issuing bonds and then printing more money in order to pay off their debt, yet no one calls them out on it. For example, say you buy $1,000 of U.S. bond, and when it matures the American government just prints out $1,000 to give it to you. What it does is setting off inflation, because simply printing money devalues the money. Of course, you don't see such a heavy inflation in the U.S., precisely because China keeps buying USD to keep its demand high. I mean, think about it, the U.S. has 14 TRILLION dollars of debt, how the heck else can they manage the inflation that creates?

China is playing the part of the scapegoat right now. The western nations need somebody to blame for their economic troubles, and the undervalued RMB seems like the perfect target. It's simple(too simple) enough for the voting public to understand, and the blame resides with the "enemy" nation of China. However, let's not forget that it was only a few years ago when the RMB appreciated by a whopping 16.5%(from ~8.3:1 dolllar to ~6.7:1 dollar). Did that make any significant difference for either the Chinese or the American and western economies? No. It's beyond ludicrous and even insulting to think that the trick to a booming economy is to simply keep the currency value low.

Now, looking at China's forex reserve, what can they do with that $2.4 trillion dollars? Practically nothing. You said it's like anybody losing his life savings, but that's not quite true. We can take out our life savings and buy things with it, but can China? No, because there aren't enough takers(i.e. sellers). In essence, this is dead money, and every day it is held it is depreciated by the U.S. treasury printing more money(i.e. manipulating its currency). Perhaps one day, some currently rich nations will be desperate enough to sell something worth hundreds of billions of $$, but not now. How can China come calling for the debt? Well that's a good question, because they really can't. What they CAN do, however, is to sell this debt, which would SEVERELY depreciate the value of the dollar and not just against the RMB, but against all other currencies. In the short term, a sudden influx of $2.4 trillion dollars would set off massive inflation in the U.S.. So you see, this forex is not "savings" to China, it is a tool against the U.S. economy in particular. Of course, hurting the U.S. like that is not in China's best interest as it still depends quite a bit on exports to the U.S., but if the Americans should want a trade war, this is certainly a weapon in China's arsenal.

Here are some good reads who delve into the currency manipulation deal a bit deeper:

http://moneymorning.com/2010/04/13/washington-china/

Let's assume that China's currency is 60% undervalued, as some believe. If Beijing were to immediately bring that to par, everything in this country that we import from China is going to see a price increase of at least that amount - and possibly even more. That would devastate our economy, wiping out the millions of American families that are struggling to make every dollar count right now. It would also seriously crimp - or more likely obliterate - U.S. corporate profits, igniting a new round of layoffs, plant closures and corporate bankruptcies.

The fallout wouldn't be contained within U.S. borders. Our trading partners would immediately feel the pinch, too, as we bought less and as the price increases rippled their away around the world. It would be bad news for everyone.

On the U.S. corporate profits note, keep in mind that much of China's vaunted trade deficit is run by American/western companies who manufacture products in China and sell them back in the U.S./Europe.

DavidD wrote:

What they CAN do, however, is to sell this debt, which would SEVERELY depreciate the value of the dollar and not just against the RMB, but against all other currencies. In the short term, a sudden influx of $2.4 trillion dollars would set off massive inflation in the U.S.. So you see, this forex is not "savings" to China, it is a tool against the U.S. economy in particular. Of course, hurting the U.S. like that is not in China's best interest as it still depends quite a bit on exports to the U.S., but if the Americans should want a trade war, this is certainly a weapon in China's arsenal.

Aren't you overestimating the powers of the PRC a tad bit.PRC for all its propaganda is dependent on U.S for even food.Don't you think that the scenario that you paint above has already been gamed by the U.S.What if they cancel all of PRC's reserves with a stroke of a pen?

^^^ Heh heh, here's uber amriki jingo sri sri Karl Denninger on another of his rhetorical polemics. BTW, I wouldn't be too hasty about dismissing his screeds because time and again he's proven himself to be pretty rigorous on the technical and detail fronts.
President Obama: Time To Tell China To **** Off
The provocation:

[The UK Telegraph reports that]Ding Yifan, a policy guru at the Development Research Centre, said China could respond by selling holdings of US debt, estimated at over $1.5 trillion (£963bn). This would trigger a rise in US interest rates. His comments at a forum in Beijing follow a string of remarks by Chinese officials questioning US credit-worthiness and the reliability of the dollar.

The unguarded reaction:

The US Treasury could respond by declaring every T-Bill you hold worthless, thereby resolving the problem of you "selling" anything. Since all T-bills are held in book form at the Treasury, this can be done unilaterally and China has no recourse should we do so.

Never mind that we don't have to do a damn thing except chuckle if you were to do this, as I'll explain below.

Esp..

"They are utterly wrong," said Gabriel Stein from Lombard Street Research. "The lesson of the 1930s is that surplus countries with structurally weak domestic demand come off worst in a trade war."

Well, well....eagle versus dlagon. Interesting tussle. Frenemies and all only. Let the games begin....

Perhaps one day, some currently rich nations will be desperate enough to sell something worth hundreds of billions of $$, but not now. How can China come calling for the debt? Well that's a good question, because they really can't. What they CAN do, however, is to sell this debt, which would SEVERELY depreciate the value of the dollar and not just against the RMB, but against all other currencies. In the short term, a sudden influx of $2.4 trillion dollars would set off massive inflation in the U.S.. So you see, this forex is not "savings" to China, it is a tool against the U.S. economy in particular.


One, they can't sell this debt if the US 'demonetises' it as they effectively did with financial deals made anywhere with any currency other than US dollars post 9/11. There is a very interesting TED talk on this somewhere.

Two, what China can do with this money is impress the natives in hellholes like Pakistan, Burma, Timor, North Korea, Gabon for ports, mines and UN votes.

DavidD: So who's going to buy that $2.4 trillion of US debt ? Just because you want to sell doesn't mean you can. All the traditional big buyers of US debt are overleveraged themselves. The only realistic wildcard is the oil producing countries.

Further, how much of the depreciation in value of those earnings, if not an outright loss on sale is China willing to stomach ? $400 billion ? $800 billion ? Interesting process of gaining supremacy by taking losses to the tune of 10-20% of GDP...

http://inhabitat.com/2010/09/20/china-d ... ning-unit/
China Develops World's First Solar Powered Air Conditioning Unit

Developed by a company called Shandong Vicot Air Conditioning Co., Ltd, the solar powered air-con unit could save companies and homeowners not only masses of money but also reduce their carbon emissions, something that is essential in China which is still a heavily-industrialized country. Showcased at the World Solar-Powered Air Conditioning Development Forum, the solar-powered air conditioning unit boasts an optimal 85% thermal cooling conversion efficiency, with an ability to utilize to 27 times the amount of solar power than the average water heating unit uses.
The Shandong Vicot Air Conditioning unit also allows for 24-hour continuous cooling, heating, and supply of hot water, while natural gas can be used as a supplemental energy supply, so during periods of poor sunshine, heating and cooling can still be provided. This should be quite rare however as in terms of solar power, China’s supply is abundant. Sunlight hits two thirds of the nation’s surface area and annual solar irradiance exceeds 2,200 hours – optimal conditions for any national solar endeavor.Furthermore, relevant statistics show that consumption of energy by buildings and other structures in China is 27.45% of the country’s overall energy consumption, so the incorporation of energy-saving measures in these structures is imminent. Heating units in particular use a lot of energy with their energy consumption accounting for 65% of usage, compared to water heating units (15%) and electricity needs (14%).
“This solar-powered air conditioning unit is the result of three years of hard work and the pioneering research efforts of Chinese and American scientists and engineers. The product is a fine example of globally cutting-edge technology. Solar-powered air conditioning units can be widely used in low-carbon buildings, and its cost is relatively low, so in 3.5 years, the unit’s initial investment can be recouped, and in 6.7, the entire investment can be recovered,” remarked Shandong Vicot Air Conditioning Co., Ltd.’s president Li Wen.

^ That is pure BS. I have been tracking this company "SolCool" for years. I even spoke to them circa 2004 to get mfg license to India.

http://www.solcool.net/

Manishw wrote:

DavidD wrote:

What they CAN do, however, is to sell this debt, which would SEVERELY depreciate the value of the dollar and not just against the RMB, but against all other currencies. In the short term, a sudden influx of $2.4 trillion dollars would set off massive inflation in the U.S.. So you see, this forex is not "savings" to China, it is a tool against the U.S. economy in particular. Of course, hurting the U.S. like that is not in China's best interest as it still depends quite a bit on exports to the U.S., but if the Americans should want a trade war, this is certainly a weapon in China's arsenal.

Aren't you overestimating the powers of the PRC a tad bit.PRC for all its propaganda is dependent on U.S for even food.Don't you think that the scenario that you paint above has already been gamed by the U.S.What if they cancel all of PRC's reserves with a stroke of a pen?

I'm only quoting you, but really quite a few people have replied with the same thing so I'm responding to all the comments regarding this issue.

If the U.S. cancels it/demonetarize it then the same effect will occur: inflation. There's a reason why countries don't just cancel their debts. Also, note that China WILL take significant losses with a massive sell like this, and because of that, there WILL be buyers. It's all about supply and demand. If suddenly the supply makes a gigantic leap, which would happen if China decides to sell $2.4 trillion USD's, then the worth of that commodity will fall precipitously. This leads to my next point, which is...someone asked how much loss can China stomach? $400 billion? $800 billion? No. The answer is $2.4 trillion. I've already made the point that China has few places to spend that money(as someone noted, only in places like Africa, Pakistan, and whatnot), so much of this money is ALREADY LOST. What China did was essentially spend 2.4 trillion dollars to buy a weapon against the U.S. economy, to ensure that the Americans can't just put the clamps down when they feel threatened like they did to Japan in the early '90s.

Now, as I mentioned before, if a trade war never happens and this weapon is never used, then there's a chance for China to reclaim some of this money. However, make no mistake about it, China WILL lose a significant amount of "real" money even in the best case scenario. This money is not money, but a tool, it can be used to hurt the U.S., which would indirectly hurt China as well albeit to a lesser extent. Secondarily, this money can be used to stave off inflation in China should such a need arises.

DavidD wrote:This money is not money, but a tool, it can be used to hurt the U.S., which would indirectly hurt China as well albeit to a lesser extent. Secondarily, this money can be used to stave off inflation in China should such a need arises.

In your excellent analysis, sir, why have you not touched upon the fallout for China - where 2/3rds of the economy is dependent on "expolts", where ~90,000 people riot every year, where the state has excessive control - in press, crackdown on dissidents, people migration etc. ?

Sounds a lot like our "friendly" neighbour who always likes to negotiate with a gun to their head.

DavidD wrote:
If the U.S. cancels it/demonetarize it then the same effect will occur: inflation.

Well David , Inflation will be the end game no matter what since the bleeding of job's that America is suffering cant happen forever.It can also be seen as the end of the cold war where the repercussion's to America were temporarily halted.So whatever spin one want's to put on it, the endgame is certain. Only way for it to not happen is if America overnight switches to a new currency/massive bankruptcies, but that is perhaps besides the point.

DavidD wrote: What China did was essentially spend 2.4 trillion dollars to buy a weapon against the U.S. economy, to ensure that the Americans can't just put the clamps down when they feel threatened like they did to Japan in the early '90s.

No, they started this game to hit the FSU and cuddle up to US and never stopped and this is not a weapon nor it was ever but the CPC is just resorting to Propaganda since it was one of the most foolish mistakes they could make and are now trying to cover it up by blaming America.

As long as RMB is a fixed rate currency , US can screw China at will without actually hurting itself. One would also not know what is the real growth rate or size of economy and how much is internally consumed.China's real strength will be tested only when RMB is freed.

^ If they free the RMB( they will have to because of pressures from various quarter's) and all else being equal it is a sure bet they go into deflation/disinflation ala Japan.Apart from having excess capacities there are numerous structural problems with the PRC economy.
Just as an example the PRC has more homes than will ever be reqd. in its future and property prices are sky high.

^ Yeah I know. The question is do they ?? Are they posturing to hide their fear?
Their economy is hot air baloon and whole world is swooning over it.How many Indian delegations watering at mouth to go to beijing to see how chinese work. If it is implemented in real practice in India these people would be first to vanish from the scene.

If the folks at Zhongnanhai are so profligate as to think $2,400,000,000,000 is a 'tool' that may be entirely squandered in a geopolitical armwrestling match, they need to have their collective heads examined. On the other hand, it just appears to be DavidD's bluster right now Typically, there's no analysis of what the Chinese population will say when they're told that effectively 50% of GDP got pissed down the drain, under the presumption that they'll juts nod and carry on.

The problem with the argument that China can indeed unload $2.4 trillion in US debt is that of the catching falling knives analogy - such a scenario typically does not attract buyers. Paradoxically, rather than attracting buyers, a big cut may cause them to hold out for more, since prices are falling. Since the financial system in general prefers equilibrium, it will attempt to force a resolution/stabilization to the US debt valuation drop as quickly as possible. In the process, the result may be that practically nothing actually gets sold, but their nominal value has now been drastically cut - China will continue to hold almost the same debt, except now nominally devalued massively with no hope of any gains.

Chaanakya Ji our honorable representatives and babus are always watering at the mouth for foreign tours.
I guess every elite in all major countries know this situation.Now the problem is that the CPC might go to war to distract the attention of the average Chinese.Hence the build up at the borders etc.
Personally I feel that we should be extra careful, its time to take out our brahmos, agnis's etc, polish them and be ready to fire if the need arises.
Its going to be a humdinger of a crash.

Suraj wrote:If the folks at Zhongnanhai are so profligate as to think $2,400,000,000,000 is a 'tool' that may be entirely squandered in a geopolitical armwrestling match, they need to have their collective heads examined. On the other hand, it just appears to be DavidD's bluster right now Typically, there's no analysis of what the Chinese population will say when they're told that effectively 50% of GDP got pissed down the drain, under the presumption that they'll juts nod and carry on.

Very true, the Chinese if not anything have learnt a great deal from the master's.
Fudging accounts on a national scale they have reverse engineered from the American's themselves.
As regard's propaganda they seemed to have followed Goebbel very well.

Alas these things do not end very well.

Manishw wrote:^ If they free the RMB( they will have to because of pressures from various quarter's) and all else being equal it is a sure bet they go into deflation/disinflation ala Japan.Apart from having excess capacities there are numerous structural problems with the PRC economy.
Just as an example the PRC has more homes than will ever be reqd. in its future and property prices are sky high.

Hush, my man.... you gotta give the Cheenese a little more credit for rationality, long-range planning and grand-scheming than that only. I'm sure there's a deep sun-tzu-esque ploy somewhere behind getting caught in sh1t creek sans a paddle only.

More seriously, problem recognition (acknowledgement?) is the first step to problem resolution and wisdom and all. Am sure the bluster measured statements on the weaponization of the forex stash has gamed it all out only.

Asian markets applaud China's 'soft landing'
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian- ... 2010-09-13

China's August production, consumption and inflation data signal that the government has largely succeeded in engineering a controlled deceleration of growth and prices without having the bottom fall out," wrote Uwe Parpart, chief Asia strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, in a note to clients Monday.

Forget about Delhi CWG, talk Guangzhou Asiad 2010

^ More propaganda.

naren wrote:

DavidD wrote:This money is not money, but a tool, it can be used to hurt the U.S., which would indirectly hurt China as well albeit to a lesser extent. Secondarily, this money can be used to stave off inflation in China should such a need arises.

In your excellent analysis, sir, why have you not touched upon the fallout for China - where 2/3rds of the economy is dependent on "expolts", where ~90,000 people riot every year, where the state has excessive control - in press, crackdown on dissidents, people migration etc. ?

Sounds a lot like our "friendly" neighbour who always likes to negotiate with a gun to their head.

Yes, the fall out will be great. Not sure what the protests/dissidents etc. have anything to do with this argument, but certainly if there's a trade war then China won't come out unscathed. I'm simply making the statement that the foreign exchange China holds will benefit them more, one way or another.

Manishw wrote:

DavidD wrote:
If the U.S. cancels it/demonetarize it then the same effect will occur: inflation.

Well David , Inflation will be the end game no matter what since the bleeding of job's that America is suffering cant happen forever.It can also be seen as the end of the cold war where the repercussion's to America were temporarily halted.So whatever spin one want's to put on it, the endgame is certain. Only way for it to not happen is if America overnight switches to a new currency/massive bankruptcies, but that is perhaps besides the point.

You're right, that is indeed the end game(unless, of course, they somehow manage to actually pay those debts off), you can't just borrow money non-stop and expect no consequences. Now, let me ask you, which party, the Republicans or the Democrats, will be willing to let it reach the end game and shoulder the blame for the massive inflation it causes?

DavidD wrote: You're right, that is indeed the end game(unless, of course, they somehow manage to actually pay those debts off), you can't just borrow money non-stop and expect no consequences. Now, let me ask you, which party, the Republicans or the Democrats, will be willing to let it reach the end game and shoulder the blame for the massive inflation it causes?

The blame will be shifted to PRC irrespective of the party as the PRC is shifting blame to US.Both know the consequences and will play to the gallery of their respective citizens.

Btw Ombaba seems to be the perfect guy to blame for all ills and perhaps all things bad will be shown as being his fault onlee.

^^^ And we all know neither the eagel nor the dlagon want confrontation just now. Both will hurt in such a scenario, though not equally, of course. As the surplus exporting nation, cheena will take a larger hit should the yanks yank the support from under the world free trade regime.

Given that neither of the G-2 intends a spat, however, what adds masala interest to the mix is the law of *unintended* consequences, a.k.a. grey swans or residual error in khanomic models.

The world knows nobody wanted WWI, yet it happened. Then again, we know nobody wanted a 2008 financial collapse, yet it happened. Bottomline - things happen even when nobody has an interest in bringing them about. Such is the law of the fragility of unsustainable. Only.

Manishw wrote:

DavidD wrote: You're right, that is indeed the end game(unless, of course, they somehow manage to actually pay those debts off), you can't just borrow money non-stop and expect no consequences. Now, let me ask you, which party, the Republicans or the Democrats, will be willing to let it reach the end game and shoulder the blame for the massive inflation it causes?

The blame will be shifted to PRC irrespective of the party as the PRC is shifting blame to US.Both know the consequences and will play to the gallery of their respective citizens.

Btw Ombaba seems to be the perfect guy to blame for all ills and perhaps all things bad will be shown as being his fault onlee.

That could happen if the U.S. has the propaganda machine China has and the political elites are united in one voice. But do you see that happening in the U.S.? There's a LOT of money to be lost in a trade war, and you can bet that some very powerful people won't be so happy to see that happen. There would be finger pointing in all directions, and not just toward China. If Americans were so willing to make the sacrifices demanded of them in a trade war, they wouldn't even be in this position to begin with.

^Let me ask you David the current unemployment/underemployment rate in America is around 20-25%.people are going into poverty faster.Bankruptcies are increasing among the populace.Do you think that this is sustainable?If I know Americans correctly they are not going to put up with this misery for very long.The elites cant keep on ignoring them for very long now.Food stamps and unemployment allowance goes only so far.
All the above factors are accelerating and borrowing more money and spending is also being subject to the law of diminishing/negative returns.
A contraction of greater than 10% in America's GDP is staring them in the face also called double dip recession.
To stave it people are calling for an increase in the monetary base of US to 5 Trn $.Is that sustainable?
Gold is the canary in the coalmine and is singing at the top of its voice.Ignore it if you will.

Self Edited.

^^Hi Ambar,
Why inject the Yindian economy into this thread? There are at least 3 other threads in the T&EC forum where this issue can be discussed threadbare.

- self delete- Thank's for the tip Hari Ji.

Yawnn. All right folks. Get the popcorn, the 6 pack and a lazy boy chair and watch the fun.

Amid Tension, China blocks export of rare earth metals to Japan

Well, expect more of this sort of stuff going forward soon. Nice .

This has been in the news for a while and preparations are on to defeat any such moves by PRC.
Concern grows over China’s dominance of rare-earth metals

Demand for the elements is expected to surge in tandem with hybrid-electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other green technologies.
May 2010, page 22

A tightening supply of rare-earth elements such as neodymium, samarium, and dysprosium used in permanent magnets, catalysts, glass, polishing, and a broad range of other applications has caught the attention of policymakers in Washington, stimulated efforts to tap rare-earth deposits in North America and Australia, and spurred R&D on alternative materials.

The US and the rest of the world have relied on China for nearly all of their rare-earth supplies. But China has been curtailing its exports in recent years, conserving the elements for its own manufacturers. That has prompted fears of an impending shortage in the West.

“There’s no reason to panic, but there’s every reason to be smart and serious as we plan for growing global demand for products that contain rare-earth metals and other strategic materials,” said the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) David Sandalow, assistant secretary for policy and international affairs. “Strategies for addressing shortages of strategic resources are available, if we act wisely,” he told attendees at a March conference on rare earths. “We can invest in additional sources of supply. We can develop substitutes. We can reuse materials and find ways to use them more efficiently. We can consider use of stockpiles and strategic reserves.”

Jiabao warns 20% yuan gain will cause ‘major’ upheaval

CHINESE Premier Wen Jiabao said a 20% rise in the yuan would cause severe job losses and trigger social instability, putting the nation on course for a clash with US lawmakers demanding a stronger currency. “We cannot imagine how many Chinese factories will go bankrupt, how many Chinese workers will lose their jobs, and how many migrant workers will return to the countryside” should China acquiesce to demands for a 20% to 40% gain, Wen said in New York Wednesday. “China would suffer major social upheaval.”

The Chinese are idiots. Rare earth metals are not so rare that they cannot be found elsewhere. Their ban on exports will only give customer countries an incentive to develop other sources and/or to detach Tiber from China.

vina wrote:Yawnn. All right folks. Get the popcorn, the 6 pack and a lazy boy chair and watch the fun.

Amid Tension, China blocks export of rare earth metals to Japan

Well, expect more of this sort of stuff going forward soon. Nice .

There was no rare earth metal ban, and Japan just released the captain of the fishing trawler. You might wanna consider returning the popcorn

- Rare earth consists of a tiny fraction of Chinese export; Chinese economy can sense almost no influence even it turned out to be zero
- Less export means higher price, then why not limit it?
- And Tibet, anybody can try their luck to detach it from China

abhischekcc wrote:The Chinese are idiots. Rare earth metals are not so rare that they cannot be found elsewhere. Their ban on exports will only give customer countries an incentive to develop other sources and/or to detach Tiber from China.

aah but its the leverage that rare earth metals have in terms of their value to other industries thats the real issue here (semi-conductors, display tech, automotive...)

Lalmohan wrote:aah but its the leverage that rare earth metals have in terms of their value to other industries thats the real issue here (semi-conductors, display tech, automotive...)

Other countries have it too, it'll just cost more.

DavidD wrote:

Lalmohan wrote:aah but its the leverage that rare earth metals have in terms of their value to other industries thats the real issue here (semi-conductors, display tech, automotive...)

Other countries have it too, it'll just cost more.

But it takes time for production to ramp up in these other countries. The issue here is stockpile or the lack or it to sustain production.

TonyMontana wrote:

DavidD wrote: Other countries have it too, it'll just cost more.

But it takes time for production to ramp up in these other countries. The issue here is stockpile or the lack or it to sustain production.

There's enough stockpile around the world, and especially in Japan, to last a while for production to ramp up. Again, it'll cost more, especially in the short term. With that said, simply costing more might just be damaging enough when so many companies are hanging on a thin thread these days.