Rudradev wrote:On this note one should consider Taiwan, the rival that has long been propped up by the West against the PRC. For decades, Taiwan's GDP and rate of growth towered over that of PRC, a differential that has never applied to Pakistan against India. The Taiwanese were also supplied by the West with the latest armaments, all directed against the PRC. Yet, the PRC never made compromises with respect to Taiwan, in order to catch up with Taiwan's GDP or develop economically in its own right. It stood up to the Western proxy, armed itself with enough capability to invade the island if necessary, and still continued with its own economic development in an unflagging manner.
I’m afraid this is an overtly simplistic assessment of China’s stand vis a vis Taiwan. China is very explicit on its claims on Taiwan and yet the Taiwanese armed forces have been armed by the US for decades and was definitely till recently far superior to the Chinese forces in terms of quality.
It’s only now that China has threatened
overt economic sanctions against US entities which arm Taiwan. Before it’s typical reaction was a lot of bluster and military exercises and pointing more missiles against Taiwan etc. Nothing was directed against the US except for a lot of verbiage. Let’s not put Uncle Jiang on a pedestal for the sake of promoting one POV.
Today we say: $1.3 trillion GDP isn't enough for us to stand up to Pakistan (let alone the US). It isn't enough for us to consolidate our strategic, diplomatic and security interests even in our own near abroad. Instead we must do exactly as the US says, and pursue peace with Pakistan at any cost, at least until 2015 or whenever we have a $4-$5 trillion GDP (as China has now).
Let's say we do this (at the incalculable price of sacrificing our national interest even within the confines of our own neighbourhood). Let's say we continue along the path MMS is taking now and wait to develop a $4-$5 trillion GDP.
When we have it, what then? Will we look at China's $10 trillion GDP and say "well, $4 or $5 trillion doesn't really cut it in terms of global influence. Let's just make more compromises and count on losing another six or seven thousand Indian lives to terrorism every year until we hit the $10 trillion mark"?
This makes no sense to me at all. India is not a corporation, not a cash cow with shareholders to answer to. India is a nation, a nation of people whose interests must be secured for generations to come. For all their ruthless corporatism the Chinese have never lost sight of the difference.
I’m sorry boss but either you did not understand my argument or you are twisting it.
I’m quite clear in my mind that we are at a level where we can swat the Pakistanis any time we want to provided the US and its friends don’t prop them up. However, the whole premise of my argument is how we can realistically build influence within the US so that it makes sense for pressure groups on Capitol Hill to drive a change in the US govt policy.
While all this reference to Wilsonian idealists and Hamiltonian realists in politics and economics respectively sounds nice, in bare bone terms what matters is a question of: Show me the Money.
And ultimately the levers of US power is best manipulated via US business interests. In order to get them sufficiently interested we need a bigger economy so that the prize of economic cooperation with India is bigger and is worth letting the Pakis go.
Now will it pan out after we hit US$4-US$5 trillion? I think it’s obvious that that’s not an immediate given. It will ultimately depend on the political leadership and whether they have the political acumen and skill to use this new found economic clout to India’s advantage. If we don’t have the right leadership even the world’s third or fourth largest economy would not help.
The other point is at present even assuming we had a “braveheart” Nationalist government in power today, we/they wouldn’t have the wherewithal to sufficiently sway US interest groups.
Previous governments have exercised coercive diplomacy against Pakistan (and the US) without ending up in a confrontation, yet leading to very tangible national security benefits.
I’m sure you’re referring to Operation Parakram here as apart from that mobilization I don’t recall any other coercive actions from the NDA govt apart from heavy rhetoric. (Please note here that while the NDA govt pulled the nuclear trigger and deserve compliments for that, the ground work was done by the PVNR govt. This is the same as your point later about the ongoing nature of such projects. The NDA govt did not pull Pokharan out of its hat).
You have highlighted the benefits which Parakram brought. And I personally think it was a good move on the part of the NDA govt.
But I’m sure you’d agree that even that didn’t prove to be a permanent solution. We may have got Musharraff browning his pants but despite that there were the Delhi and Ayodhya blasts after that, not to speak of Mumbai. So long term I don’t see how coercive diplomacy would/will work with the Pakis as long as we can’t wean away the Amercians.
It is to squeeze the US so that they guarantee our interests, economic and political and military, in exchange for our avoiding a confrontation.
Undoubtedly it’s basic baniya logic. But it’s also baniya logic that you need to get to the capability to be able to do that. How do you propose that India does that? By playing a spoiler with Iran and in Afghanistan? Do you think the US would be so scared of that they will back off from Pakistan? If wishes were horses…
If the MMS government can guarantee the safety of the Indian people by internal security means alone, and without yielding any concessions to the Pakistanis, well and good. If it cannot guarantee the security of the Indian people while maintaining its "holding operation" then the "holding operation" has failed and must be replaced by a strategy that imposes retaliatory costs on those endangering the Indian people... no two ways about it.
I agree with you on this but the point is we really don’t know
yet whether the holding operation has failed or not. I don’t know how it was done or whether it is just good fortune but the fact remains that after 26/11 it was the first time since terror strikes started in India outside of J&K we’ve had more than a year without any incidents before the Pune blast.
I agree with you the IPL and Commonwealth Games are prime targets as would be the Hockey World Cup and the remaining two One-Dayers with South Africa. Now there’s two options before India. One is the easy way out. Take IPL overseas and cancel all the other events. Or tighten security as much as possible and hope for the best. Now tell me what is the better option?
This is why it can take years for anything to happen. The nuclear submarine ATV program was begun by the NDA government in leasing INS Chakra from the Russians but has only borne fruit today. Missile research, LCA development, Arjun development all proceed at their own pace no matter who happens to be the government of the day. If any of these programs meet their milestones during a particular government's tenure, it does not necessarily mean that the government of the day should get any credit for it.
Of course, the government *can* if it wants, change things. The PM (along with his MOD and COAS) can take personal interest in accelerating defense acquisitons and if he does, it will have a dramatic effect. The MRCA could be decided on and purchased within weeks if MMS decided to move on it.
I’m sorry but your facts are bit mixed up here. The ATV programme started much before the NDA govt. However, procurement of big ticket defence items is not the issue. It’s the willingness to test missiles and develop new ones. You know if the govt really wanted to go slow on defence it could have deferred the anti ballistic missile tests, the Agni 3, Shourya and a host of other projects which all seem to be moving towards culmination.
And I’m sure you’ve seen press reports that state that there’s a move to speed up the MRCA acquisition. Also there’s a massive move to ramp up security in the North East. Now surely you’re point is not that the UPA govt which is a cat in the west becomes a tiger in the east?
Since the 1960s, the only GOI that has actively prioritized jumpstarting the military acquisitions process has been the Rajiv Gandhi government. Of course they were sloppy about kickbacks and such, and lost re-election largely on account of the Bofors scandal.
I agree with you on this. And it is the singular responsibility of the non-Congress parties that they have kept the ghost of Bofors alive all these years by not getting to the bottom of the so called Rs64 crores kickbacks and the net result has been a badly crippled the Army which hasn’t been able to induct much needed artillery for more than two decades. Was it too difficult to bring the perpetrators of this kickback to book in the years that VP Singh and others were in power or more later when the NDA govt was in power for six years? Neither was that done, nor did the non Congress govts have the nerve to go out and buy new guns. Isn't just picking up the UPA govt on this a case of selective blame fixing?
) By helping Pakistan, it is only promoting its own national interest. But China is an ally of the enemy country. China and Pak are one against India. This time we have been left all alone. The only way out is to strengthen internal defences (
