Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Posted: 20 Nov 2016 19:36
OK he has just pushed *Home for all* by 2022. This is one way to push for employment given that RE sector will face a setback in the near term.
Consortium of Indian Defence Websites
https://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/
At one point the actress, angry says "Tell him to shut his mouth". I am going to get that clip and put it on TwitterJohnTitor wrote:In summary, she says "look at the difficulty he is facing, ask him ask him, he's not getting any sales" (pointing to the seller.. regarding demonetisation).. to which the guy replies no one is facing any difficulty - after which the crowd starts chanting NM's nameChandragupta wrote:
What are the slogans that the people are raising? And what was the lady saying at the start? Some help with translation pls.
Per this article by MD Nalapat, RBI has ample stock of currency (a big big relief) which I assume consists of 100 and 2000 rupee notes, it is a question of recalibrating the ATMs and transferring the money to the banks....IOW increase outlets to the public to ease the queue in the banks.RBI must deliver on PM Modi’s promise
By M.D. Nalapat | 19 November, 2016
RBI has been less than effective in ensuring that currency reach the public in time.
The BJP as a party overexposed Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the Delhi and Bihar Assembly elections and the same error has been made by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). A currency swap is entirely the responsibility of the RBI, which has enjoyed autonomy from the Ministry of Finance precisely to ensure that the Central bank directs monetary policy, while the Ministry of Finance frames fiscal policies. Even during the tenure of UPA favourite Raghuram Rajan, the Modi government showed utmost respect to the Governor of the RBI, despite the fact that the Chicago School economist was systematically slowing down or killing small, medium and even some large-scale industries by a policy of ultra-high interest rates, not to mention the damage done during his tenure to the service and infrastructure sectors. As the newly appointed RBI Governor Urijit Patel is in the driver’s seat on monetary policy, it follows that the scheme which was announced not by its Governor but through Prime Minster Modi on 8 November was the RBI’s brainchild. Of course, this must have been discussed by Patel with officials such as Secretaries Hasmukh Adhia and Shaktikanta Das as well as Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, Nripendra Mishra, who has been a champion of the 8 November currency swap scheme from the very beginning of its being discussed. However, at all stages, it would have been the RBI which had the final say on a monetary policy that affects every citizen of India. Given this, the measure ought to have been revealed to the public by RBI Governor Urijit Patel. Passing on such a task to the Prime Minister has unintentionally conveyed a misleading impression about the autonomy that the RBI has under the Modi government.
Not only the 8 November announcement, but subsequent mentions of tweaks to the policy have also been handed over by the RBI to the Finance Ministry, with a particular Secretary making such announcements on almost a daily basis, when this task should have been carried out by a Deputy Governor or an Executive Director of the Central bank. Each such announcement of monetary measures that emanates from the Finance Ministry, rather than the RBI, reinforces the incorrect assumption that with Rajan leaving the bank, so has the autonomy of our country’s Central bank. This when PM Modi, in line with international best practices, has ensured autonomy to the RBI. Certainly Governor Patel may be media shy and very modest despite his high attainments. However, his is not a job where the incumbent has the option of retiring behind a curtain of silence for the whole of his or her tenure. After all, the RBI Governor has, by his signature, guaranteed that each currency note will be honoured in full by the institution he now leads. Since 8 November, the RBI (despite repeatedly revealing that it has ample currency stocks) has been less than effective in ensuring that the currency in its possession reach wherever it be needed in a timely manner. As a consequence, the misery of the public is rapidly becoming unbearable. A Prime Minister of the savvy of Narendra Modi would never have taken the political risk involved in endorsing a currency swap involving 85% of the total cash in circulation, without first being assured by the RBI that currency stocks in its possession were sufficient to prevent the severe disruptions now being seen in commerce and in the citizen’s everyday life. Such an assurance of ample supply of cash with the RBI must have been minutely examined at various levels by the Finance Ministry and the Prime Minister’s Office. From all this, it is clear that the Central bank has the means to ensure liquidity in the economy sufficient to prevent a cash shortage, which indeed is among its core functions. The fact that severe cash shortages are taking place even ten days after the swap was first announced, indicates that the Central bank of the country may not be living up to the written assurance of each RBI Governor that each currency note remains exchangeable in like value instantly on presentation. The severe and disruptive restrictions imposed on moneys which can be withdrawn from the accounts of citizens, added to the fact that ATMs across India are empty of cash for much of the day and often week, goes contrary to the RBI Governor’s solemn assurance, and unless Urjit Patel acts with despatch, loss of faith in the word of the RBI Governor may spread to the broader population. That the new notes are as devoid of cutting edge security features as the old, plus the fact that this swap has been more than six months in the pipeline, makes what is being witnessed across the country inexcusable for a Central bank with a tradition going back more than eight decades.
The “Lutyens Zone” is less a geographical construct than it is a state of mind, and its denizens are masters of media spin. Many are already seeking to create distance between the 8 November declaration and themselves by claiming that the new currency was to be rolled out only on 1 January 2017 and that the decision to pre-pone the launch drastically was made by the Prime Minister. In view of the administrative record of Narendra Modi, it is impossible to believe that he would pre-pone such a monumental scheme unless the relevant authorities assured him that they were prepared. Statements coming from the RBI show that cash in hand is not the problem. Rather, it is insufficient speed in ensuring that enough liquidity to maintain high growth and employment flows across the many sectors suddenly drained since 8 November of 85% of their cash. Through faster replenishment of cash in banks, ATMs and other distribution centres and much greater ease in the processes devised for withdrawal of cash, it is imperative that the RBI ensures that the liquidity situation prevailing across the country and its economy return to the pre-announcement level within the 50-day period promised by PM Modi. The RBI taking more time than that for the present cash shortages to disappear would be cruel and indeed criminal.
The congis printed money like there was no tomorrow. We don't need all that amount of cash floating around. So a lower amount of float may work just as well.Philip wrote:Nalapat is dpot on.Our babus are almost always wrong on any major issue whether it is the MEA,MOD,RBI whatever. How an assurance that the withdrawal of 85% of the country's cash in circulation could be replaced in days beats me.ATMs are notoroiusly inoperable and recalibrating them for a nation of 1.25 B people in a jiffy teminds me of the GTRE bullsh*tting Kalam 15+ years ago that the Kaveri engine would be ready in 3 monyhs! Kalam then grandly announced that by 2010 there would be 200 LCAs flying.
If Mr.Modi hss been deceived by the RBI/FM officials then heads must roll for this fiasco as he is being held responsible for the ineptude of the execution of his grand design.
With family wedding in Gujarat next month and monitoring wedding related stuff day to day, yes, I can see many venues for people to abuse wedding option and route. From jewelers to caterers willing to make up many entries. Multiple friends and their friends have approached my family members to help them out with their BM situation. I am also pretty sure that whether it is a caterer or flowers provider, everyone is going to be generating bogus entries on side for any wedding they are involved with. Hopefully, IT department approaches each family having wedding and cross verifies entries. I can also see many fake wedding scenarios etc. Though approaching the families already having weddings and try to divert BM through that route is happening for sure through back dated entries.Paul wrote:Just thought of something, if there is enough stock, then why has the Govt declined to release Rs 250K for marriages? Only reason I think of is hordes of people will turn up at banks with phony marriage invitations and they do not want black money seeping into banks through this way. So very clearly there is laser like focus on tracking black money down and preventing it's seepage into the system.
Also explains why daily limit of 4500 was reduced to 2000. Government is very clear in it's priorities.
Message for Aam aadmi: No heavy spending till January. If you want to spend money, write a check!
RajeshG wrote:Thanks Suraj. I will stop beating my wife now.Suraj wrote:Why are you wasting time convincing us of the color of money ? If you're so convinced that money can be light-grey-thats-almost-white, then you should have no trouble convincing the taxman either.
Modiji said in the Agra rally today that Rs 5 lakh crore have so far been deposited in banks.Karthik S wrote:No updates about total amount of money deposited in banks after demonetization. It was $30b 5-6 days back.
BENGALURU | MUMBAI: Banks are lifting about 30,000 bottles of indelible ink a day from the Mysore Paints & Varnish Ltd factory office in Mysuru to mark the fingers of those who exchange demonetised currency notes over the counter.
Following the government’s decision on November 15 to implement this measure – aimed at preventing the misuse of the exchange facility and enabling more people to withdraw cash — the factory has geared up to meet the sudden demand for 3 lakh bottles of indelible ink
“The central government has asked us to supply the bottles to the banks. We will meet the demand,” Mysore Paints & Varnish general manager (marketing) C Harakumar told ET. The first batch of bottles has been rushed to New Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and other metros.
Modis mission is to get rid of poverty, not getting rid of the wealthy.hanumadu wrote:I-T search at engg college finds Rs 8cr deposited in 400 accounts
Just as we discussed would happen. Some employees intimated the IT department. This should be publicized wildly as a deterrent to others trying the same trick.
MUMBAI: As India enters the third week of demonetisation, industry and consumers can expect some good news, as the prime minister said the more than Rs 5 lakh crore that had come to the banks in the past few days would be used to bring down lending rates and revive economic activities. But long queues outside banks are unlikely to disappear, though harried customers may get a chance to withdraw a little more cash from ATMs.
"Over Rs 5 lakh crore deposited with banks (since the announcement of demonetisation on Novemberis not going to be kept idle," PM Narendra Modi said at a BJP rally in Agra. "Banks will have to extend loans for all sorts of economic enterprises... for which they will have to bring down interest rates."
Bankers said the supply of Rs 500 notes would go up, but were unsure whether that would ease the current cash crunch significantly. A senior banker did not rule out the possibility of the government scrapping cash swap in order to encourage people with no access to banks to open accounts to get their old notes exchanged.
"Next week should be much better. ATMs are replenished regularly and are not running out of cash which should give comfort to customers. The supply of notes (from the central bank) is in plenty but the point is that people should start spending," Arundhati Bhattacharya, chairman of State Bank of India, told ET. "Next week, we should also see good supply of Rs 500 notes which will ease the situation." She said more bank branches will deploy point of sale machines at their branches as it would allow people to swipe their cards and withdraw cash instantly.
During the next few weeks, banks are also expected to go on a publicity drive to sensitise customers on digital channels for doing banking transactions, such as using debit card on point of sale machines to withdraw money and mobile banking to pay bills.
This follows a direction from the government to make customers aware of various delivery channels to reduce queues at branches.
NEW DELHI: More than five lakh fair price shops across the country will be equipped with electronic point of sale (ePOS) machines and function as micro ATMs in two years, a move that will largely help address the issue of poor ATM networks in rural areas.
Kakkaji wrote:Modiji said in the Agra rally today that Rs 5 lakh crore have so far been deposited in banks.Karthik S wrote:No updates about total amount of money deposited in banks after demonetization. It was $30b 5-6 days back.
NEW DELHI: The government has dialled Paytm and Oxigen Wallet to help digitise cash transactions in rural India. The rural development ministry wants to rope in digital wallet firms to make the Rs 40,000 crore turnover of women’s self-help groups (SHGs) cashless and broaden financial inclusion.
This video talks about China, but pay attention to current account deficit/surplus. Instead of reducing household income, this action has the potential to increase savings by just increasing our baseline....Karthik S wrote:Kakkaji wrote:
Modiji said in the Agra rally today that Rs 5 lakh crore have so far been deposited in banks.
Thanks, this itself is a big amount that can be used for betterment of economy.
For a New Delhi-based trading company that mainly imports electrical goods from China and then sells them in India, demonetisation has wiped out more than 50% of profit.
The company has for years been importing goods from China and under-invoicing them to save on taxes in India. The balance would be paid into the bank account of the seller in Hong Kong through illegal hawala channels.
...
“We are aware that many Indian traders while importing goods from China show only 10% to 20% of the original price of goods on each container,” an Indian customs officer told ET. “The arrangement with the Chinese counterpart is that the remaining money would be remitted through informal channels a few months down the line.” He added that the Indian government had introduced anti-dumping duty on many goods imported from China, but the practice continued and flourished due to the connivance of importers and exporters.
....
Online payment began in three markets of Karnataka on a pilot basis in Gadag, Tiptur and Hubballi, where a total of 197 lots worth ₹1.36 crore have been settled online. The UMP has a clearing and settlement module, which enables such direct payment from the accounts of traders to farmers. Due to resistance from traders and commission agents, we did not make online payments compulsory. Post demonetisation, traders have begun making online payments in Tiptur. Around 11 lots of ₹5.5 lakh has been deposited in bank account of farmers.
Ground-level preparations such as Farmer Registration and the stakeholder awareness programme — the precursor to the online payment — is being carried out, wherein 29 lakh farmers have been registered and a massive stakeholder education programme in 11,000 villages covered. The environment is conducive now to start online payments. I think post-demonetisation, online payments in markets will gain momentum.
Calcutta, Nov. 20: Around 15 lakh dormant bank accounts have sprung to life in Bengal since Prime Minister Narendra Modi's demonetisation announcement on November 8.
"There was confusion in the early days after the announcement and there was lack of operational clarity at the branch level. Going by the estimates of dormant accounts becoming active, it seems individuals started using their dormant accounts to deposit and exchange old currency notes," a city-based bank official said.
Banking sources also say that there has been a flurry of activity in Jan Dhan bank accounts - the financial inclusion scheme that the Modi government aggressively promoted two years ago.
There are 2.43 crore Jan Dhan bank accounts in Bengal and bankers estimate that at least 7 per cent of these accounts have seen activity (deposit and withdrawal) on a daily basis.
While many of these transactions could be legitimate, the misuse of bank accounts cannot be discounted altogether.
"The Centre and the RBI have asked the banks to furnish details of daily transaction and we are providing the same," said the official.
Addressing a rally in Agra today, the Prime Minister himself detailed the possible modus operandi and cautioned citizens not to allow anyone to misuse their Jan Dhan accounts.
"These corrupt people are very cunning. They may approach you to deposit Rs 2.5 lakh in your account. They can ask you to return Rs 2 lakh after six months and offer you Rs 50,000. But please do not let these people take advantage of you," Modi said. The government had earlier said deposits above Rs 2.5 lakh would be scrutinised and information on the source of the cash would be sought.
Modi added: "The law is very tough... the corrupt would say it is not my money and the people in whose accounts the money is deposited will be answerable. Unnecessarily, the poor will have problems with the law. I do not want my brothers and sisters to have any problem."
The Centre has warned that violators would be prosecuted under the Benami Transactions Act that carries a penalty and rigorous imprisonment of up to seven years.
"It is hereby clarified that such tax evasion activities can be made subject to income tax and penalty if it is established that the amount deposited in the account was not of the account holder but of somebody else. Also the person who allows his or her account to be misused for this purpose can be prosecuted for abetment under the Income Tax Act," a statement from the finance ministry said.
Estimates sourced from banks suggest that cumulatively CASA deposits (current and savings account) have grown by around Rs 65,000 crore in Bengal since November 8.
"It has gone beyond individuals' deposits; we have seen deposits from cold storages, motor vehicle dealers, construction firms, textile units and jewellery shops too," the official said.
Commercial banks are required under RBI rules to review bank accounts that have witnessed no operations for more than 12 months. The RBI master circular on the subject defines "operations" as a credit or debit transaction but does not include credit of periodic interest on pre-existing balances or debiting of service charges. A grace period of another 12 months is available before the account is classified as inoperative.
According to bank officials, a dormant account can be activated through a credit or debit transaction from the account. Banks may ask for a written request from the accountholder along with proof of identity to activate the account. The activation time varies, depending upon the branch location and could take at least a day.
The bank official in the city said: "We have received reports that some people are using other persons' bank accounts to convert their black money into new denomination notes. They are paying a small commission to the account holders who allow their accounts to be used to launder the money. This activity is being reported in the case of Jan Dhan accounts also."
The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU-IND) under the Union finance ministry is monitoring bank transactions, he added.
15 lakh x 2.50 lakh = 375000000000 (don't know this figure in english but in hindi I count its 3 kharab 75 arab rupees)Kakkaji wrote:Accounts wake up - Flurry of activity in Jan Dhan segment (in Bengal)
Calcutta, Nov. 20: Around 15 lakh dormant bank accounts have sprung to life in Bengal since Prime Minister Narendra Modi's demonetisation announcement on November 8.
New Delhi, Nov. 20: After demonetising Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, the government plans to circulate plastic or semi-plastic Rs 10 notes in place of the paper ones.
The secretive Bharatiya Reserve Bank Note Mudra Private Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of the RBI, that prints notes has selected four entities - UK-based De La Rue, Australia's Innovia, Munich-based Giesecke & Devrient and Swiss company Landquart - to supply three kinds of plastic notes.