Bharat Rakshak

SwamyG wrote:

Suraj wrote: There's no 'US peak' . It is driven by localized transmission rates. WA happened early on, and the bay area is on curfew to flatten a peak estimated in the next 2-3 weeks. Observability trails actual transmission rate, so they'll only know in hindsight how effective the curfew/quarantine measures were.

So the peak is estimated to be in 2-3 weeks, then.

That's a Bay Area estimate. I have no idea where you are, and your conditions may be very different. That's why I asserted that there's no US peak - it's too large a country, with just a few hot spots.

Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1

Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days (depending on the inoculum shed)

Bottom line - wash your hands with soap / alcohol gel, clean surfaces, avoid touching your face with unwashed hands

chetak wrote:this lady has a point

Brilliance one field does not translate to others. She is a researcher, but does not understand the human mind. Science without wisdom....

Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
· 20h
COVID-19 is less contagious at higher temperatures — good news for lower transmission come summer
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3551767

The Indian Express
@IndianExpress
So far, 18,000 people in the state are under observation and the total number of confirmed cases stands at 27.

That's a huge number. Lets hope none will test positive.

guys I can not give you more info than this that cases are starting to arrive in intensive care units in increasing numbers . Wish everyone good luck whoever is at the front lines.stay safe and follow the CDC advise.

Suresh S wrote:guys I can not give you more info than this that cases are starting to arrive in intensive care units in increasing numbers . Wish everyone good luck whoever is at the front lines.stay safe and follow the CDC advise.

What geographic location are you talking about ?

An indication of things returning to normal in China.

Good News for Apple: China Phone Sales Are Holding Up Better Than Expected

The number of Covid-19 cases peaked in China on February 17.

“the worst is over for now in China,” pointing out that all of Apple’s China retail stores have re-opened and that production should be at full strength by the end of the month.

USA : +52 cases / +1 death

- Cases : 6 143
- Deaths : 102
- Recovered : 74

Three of Dallas County’s new confirmed #Covid19 cases are currently hospitalized in critical condition. And two of those are young: one in their 20’s, another in their 30’s. The third critical patient is in their 60’s. No underlying health conditions.

Four players on the NBA's Brooklyn Nets have tested positive for coronavirus.

50 new Coronavirus cases in what Los Angeles County health director says represents a huge increase.

"Three workers at the air traffic control tower at Chicago’s Midway Airport have tested positive for COVID-19".

Officials have announced that 22 people at a nursing home in suburban Chicago have tested positive for coronavirus.

The United Auto Workers union is calling on Ford, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles to shut down their US factories for two weeks amid the coronavirus outbreak.

The plastic bag ban backfires

Reusable shopping bags may harbor the virus and could facilitate its spread

In 2013 millions of American piglets died amid an outbreak of novel swine enteric coronavirus disease, and after an investigation the U.S. Department of Agricultureconcluded that reusable feed totes were the most likely root cause. The feed bags are often made of the same kind of material as reusable shopping bags.

nyc

Russia is building a coronavirus hospital on outskirts of Moscow. Chinese style, and promises of near-Chinese speeds. New complex of 500-600 beds, 250 of which intensive care, will take a month to build, says Mayor Sonyanin.

vera_k wrote:The plastic bag ban backfires

Reusable shopping bags may harbor the virus and could facilitate its spread

In 2013 millions of American piglets died amid an outbreak of novel swine enteric coronavirus disease, and after an investigation the U.S. Department of Agriculture concluded that reusable feed totes were the most likely root cause. The feed bags are often made of the same kind of material as reusable shopping bags.

I think I will discard the above WSJ article. It might be as well written by the shills of the plastic industry. Using Coronavirus as a shoulder, fire something that gaslights the environmentalists behind the plastic ban.

First of all, reuseable bags are not shared from one family to another. I have dozen of such bags and I use it to get my groceries. Sometimes for two families. But never got around to share the bag.

In a nutshell, there is *no data* that shows reusable bags is causing *community based* spread of Coronavirus. The study on the novel swine enteric virus is cited but nuances are purposefully ignored.

The feed bags are reusable. However, the source itself was contaminated! Please check this out https://www.avma.org/javma-news/2015-11 ... ase-spread

I do not think humans are fed like pigs from such feed totes for us to worry about coronavirus spread from such feed totes

I am now realising, there is no escape from the virus. We are just flattening the rate of death, until a vaccine is found.

No amount of social distancing or washing hand has protected a person from a common flu. All of us have got, atleast once in ur life.

There are just too many avenue for the virus to infect you, even under isolation.

I am not related to the medical field, but there is a lot of misinformation / excess information regarding the wuhan virus, here are a few primers from a layman's perspective.

What is a vaccine?

A vaccine is a preparation of the entity that has a potential to cause harm in weakened state. Simply put, you infect yourself with a "cheap" version of the entity that directs the body to kill the natural version if you encounter it.

What is SARS?

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/sars/
SARS or the severe acute respiratory syndrome was observed in 2003 in china (where else?).
The symptoms:

a high temperature (fever)
extreme tiredness (fatigue)
headaches
chills
muscle pain
loss of appetite
diarrhoea

After these symptoms, the infection will begin to affect your lungs and airways (respiratory system), leading to additional symptoms, such as:

a dry cough
breathing difficulties
an increasing lack of oxygen in the blood, which can be fatal in the most severe cases

So it was cured by vaccination, right?

Unfortunately, no.
There's currently no cure for SARS, but research to find a vaccine is ongoing.

A person suspected of having SARS should be admitted to hospital immediately and kept in isolation under close observation.

Treatment is mainly supportive, and may include:

assisting with breathing using a ventilator to deliver oxygen
antibiotics to treat bacteria that cause pneumonia
antiviral medicines
high doses of steroids to reduce swelling in the lungs

What about ribavirin, the antiviral wunderkid?

Ribavirin / tribavirin are ineffectual at treating SARS. They are used for treating other viral infections like hepatitis C.

What is the relation between SARS 2003 and Wuhan virus?

The official name of the Wuhan virus is the SARS-cov-2. It is considered to be a strain of the 2003 variant.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0695-z

The Coronaviridae Study Group (CSG) of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, which is responsible for developing the classification of viruses and taxon nomenclature of the family Coronaviridae, has assessed the placement of the human pathogen, tentatively named 2019-nCoV, within the Coronaviridae. Based on phylogeny, taxonomy and established practice, the CSG recognizes this virus as forming a sister clade to the prototype human and bat severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses (SARS-CoVs) of the species Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus, and designates it as SARS-CoV-2.

What is a corona virus?

Simply put, when observed under a mocroscope, it has crown like protusions (actually protein spikes), hence the popular image.

What is n-coronavirus?

n is for novel(or new).

What is the manner of death on contracting it?

Reports are few, but by all indications you drown in your fluids.

What is a cytokine storm?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3294426/

Cytokines are a diverse group of small proteins that are secreted by cells for the purpose of intercellular signaling and communication. Specific cytokines have autocrine, paracrine, and/or endocrine activity and, through receptor binding, can elicit a variety of responses, depending upon the cytokine and the target cell. Among the many functions of cytokines are the control of cell proliferation and differentiation and the regulation of angiogenesis and immune and inflammatory responses.

Acute lung injury (ALI) is a common consequence of a cytokine storm in the lung alveolar environment and systemic circulation and is most commonly associated with suspected or proven infections in the lungs or other organs (121). In humans, ALI is characterized by an acute mononuclear/neutrophilic inflammatory response followed by a chronic fibroproliferative phase marked by progressive collagen deposition in the lung (Fig. 2) (reviewed in reference 96). Pathogen-induced lung injury can progress into ALI or its more severe form, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), as seen with SARS-CoV and influenza virus infections.

What are the common symptoms of the Wuhan virus?

Scratchiness of throat, permanent nasal blockage, diarrhoea, fever. Though, even people displaying no symptoms can be carriers infecting others, or find themselves suddenly collapsing.

Are there strains of the Wuhan virus?

Yes they are, at the least 2 referred to as the "L" and the "S" strain, the L strain is more contagious than the S.

Should I pop ibuprofen like a champ?

NO, use only paracetamol, do not take ibuprofen, aspirin, for some reason they make the case worse.

What about Vitamin C?

There have been cases of treating with high dosages of vitamin C, but the amount required is too high, the recommended intake is approx 70 mg/day for adults. Take the entire bottle and your urine will come out brighter than the sun, though sticking to the daily schedule may be better than nothing.

....What are the common methods of fighting wuhan virus?

People are treating with hiv and malrial medications, specifically chloroquine, in some places the testing has moved to in-vitro testing.

Does that mean that the vaccine will be available on my supermarket shelf by next week?

Probably not. Vaccines take a long time to test, bear in mind this is something you are wilfully injecting into your body, its effects must be fully studied. At the least, 12-18 months are reqiured. Also, it may be a once in a lifetime shot like polio, or an annual pilgrimage to your local medic.

Will these be available at affordable or freedom prices?

......

If the vaccines are done, can I come out of this unscathed?

Doubtful, by some indications you are rendered infertile, and your lungs are permanently scarred. In other words your lung capacity is permanently reduced.

What is flattening the curve?

With every instance of x, the component of y should remain constant. IOW, suppose you have 100 cases on day 1 , 500 on day 2, 6000 on day 3, the infrastructure in not equipped to deal with this, it would be better if the same number of people are being admitted; it also means that it is expected that a vast majority is infected, though the effects will be displayed later.

What is herd immunity?

With all the available data, the only desperate gambit. It means that people will be affected, but they will gain immunity to different strains, hopefully catching the mildest one, the number of casualties are expected to be high.
Once again, not related to medicine in any way, form your own decisions.

nam wrote:I am now realising, there is no escape from the virus. We are just flattening the rate of death, until a vaccine is found.

No amount of social distancing or washing hand has protected a person from a common flu. All of us have got, atleast once in ur life.

There are just too many avenue for the virus to infect you, even under isolation.

Yes, its all about flattening the curve and stopping the infection from overwhelming the health case system. Many who are hospitalized and are in ICU may recover if they have proper care available to them.

vijayk wrote:

Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
· 20h
COVID-19 is less contagious at higher temperatures — good news for lower transmission come summer
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3551767

What is that R saar? Is that transmission rate?
I have a suggestion:
Remove all the dots with temp below 0 deg C (since we are talking about the current situation of the world with non-negative temp only).
Once those neg temp dots are dropped, look at the scatterplot more closely, and the resultant regression line will have a much steeper negative slope. That will be a great news for the Asian countries which are just 3-4 weeks away from the hot summer.

^^ very good point

Supposedly Trump is thinking of rolling out a UBI per person starting in a couple of weeks. As per Steve mnuchin.

What is UBI?

Universal Basic Income...or helicopter rupee

Kati wrote:

vijayk wrote:

What is that R saar? Is that transmission rate?
I have a suggestion:
Remove all the dots with temp below 0 deg C (since we are talking about the current situation of the world with non-negative temp only).
Once those neg temp dots are dropped, look at the scatterplot more closely, and the resultant regression line will have a much steeper negative slope. That will be a great news for the Asian countries which are just 3-4 weeks away from the hot summer.

Not sure but based on the numbers, R seems like doubling rate or perhaps number of new victims per infection. Great point about the slope. Also interesting is that the thing doesn't show up in sub zero temps much, could be a relief for cold dinner areas. Also possible that the virus might've been hidden at the height of winter in the US.

Having said this, didn't someone point out that ssrn is not peer reviewed? Which could mean that the findings ain't worth squat.

Suraj wrote:

SwamyG wrote: So the peak is estimated to be in 2-3 weeks, then.

That's a Bay Area estimate. I have no idea where you are, and your conditions may be very different. That's why I asserted that there's no US peak - it's too large a country, with just a few hot spots.

Wasn't the West coast including Bay area one of the early sites of infection in the US? could mean that the rest may see spikes much later than that. No wonder there is talk of 8 week window.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronav ... 00317.html

One day after Philadelphia courts closed until April 1 to limit the spread of the coronavirus, Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw notified commanders Tuesday that police will be delaying arrests for nonviolent crimes, including drug offenses, theft, and prostitution.

Cain Marko wrote:Wasn't the West coast including Bay area one of the early sites of infection in the US? could mean that the rest may see spikes much later than that. No wonder there is talk of 8 week window.

Washington State was the first I think. It *may* have peaked with fewer new cases found today than yesterday. California is at least 1 week behind WA, and will probably peak next week. But states like TX haven't been testing much at all.

The COVID Tracking Project

Suresh S wrote:guys I can not give you more info than this that cases are starting to arrive in intensive care units in increasing numbers . Wish everyone good luck whoever is at the front lines.stay safe and follow the CDC advise.

Yes you can, and should. One important piece of info is missing in your post, i.e. geography. Please keep in mind that this is a global pandemic, so half-detailed info like this only leads to panic. I for one assumed you are talking about India, since I have no idea where you live. So, please, specify which country/city you are referring to when making posts like this.

Mods - lest someone sees the same and assumes the worst, can we pls edit/delete this post? This poster replied with a location in a separate post by itself ("nyc" it seems), not sure if that was in reference to this post. This kind of lack of context in a public and popular forum is dangerous in current times, so better to edit/remove posts that have partial details.

Watch for any locality with high infection rate but low fatality rate, South Korea perhaps. The sequence needs to be compared with Wuhan strain.

It might be an idea, unless the genetic similarity is one or two mutations away, to arrange for direct flights from that locality to the major population centres of the world!

A different take on the approach to the nCV outbreak - an interview with the legendary vaccine scientist, Dr. Paul Offit. The interviewer is Dr. Zubin Damania - popularly known as ZDoggMD.

vera_k wrote:

Cain Marko wrote:Wasn't the West coast including Bay area one of the early sites of infection in the US? could mean that the rest may see spikes much later than that. No wonder there is talk of 8 week window.

Washington State was the first I think. It *may* have peaked with fewer new cases found today than yesterday. California is at least 1 week behind WA, and will probably peak next week. But states like TX haven't been testing much at all.

The COVID Tracking Project

My midwest state reported lower new cases today....there were rumors of reducing the tests. Eshwara !!!!

What is herd immunity and can it stop the coronavirus?

Similarly, if the coronavirus spreads more easily than the experts think, more people will need to get it before herd immunity is reached. For an R0 of 3, for example, 66% of the population has to be immune before the effect kicks in, according to the simplest model.

Whether it’s 50% or 60% or 80%, those figures imply billions infected and millions killed around the world, although the more slowly the pandemic unfolds, the greater the chance for new treatments or vaccines to help.

sudeepj wrote:Check out the pictures of the Tableeghi mosque in Malaysia where the 'super spreading' event took place. A few hundred people were infected in just one event. The name of the mosque is Sri Petaling Tabligh mosque. The mosque does not look air-conditioned to me. Fresh air from outside is always a good idea and appears to be just common sense, but lets not get into a false sense of complacence that 'this cant spread in the heat and the humidity'.

The same article says that these folks were housed in packed tents, eating off the same plate, praying within confined spaces, sharing the same goat. Sure if we decide to host a Kumbh Mela at this time, same would happen here as well.

Defence in depth is what has to be done. Forced quarantine, self quarantine, social distancing, observing personal cleanliness, requiring cleanliness from others esp in service industry, boosting immunity, avoiding recirculating air, these are all measures to take. Hot weather is one of these defences (that is unavoidable in our region).

Places of worship are still not locked down in major cities in India. Seems like the decision is left to management.

We really need post-corona global impact thread. there are things unfolding at breakneck speed. The world won't be same after we come out of this crisis.

The following image shows the incompetence of the who, not unrelated.

Total number of infected cases up to 18 in Pune. I think this is the highest number of cases in a single city in India. Total number of cases in Maharashtra are now 42.
The latest cases is reported to be from the same apartment complex as my in-law's place. The identity of the patient is ofcourse a secret, but there are murmurs all around. Should I move them elsewhere? Or should the seniors stay put? I am worried about things like elevators, trash collection bins etc to be compromised.

Just saw on a regional news channel that prisoners may get bail due to this crisis. Why on earth is that, I fail to understand. They are safer inside and the community too.

So according to some public records, the senior citizen population of India in 2011 was 103.2 million. There is very little data about how many elder folks living in every city. I did some calculations for local tier-2 city here and came up with appr. figure 100,000 for 1 million people.

In emergency situation, we need shelter for at least 60% of them, which will give 60,000 elderly people to protect.

3 safe villages which can host 10k most at height of emergency. So each village can have 1500 households with each home having 6 people taking shelter. It's huge task. Now I know we are not at all ready for nuclear war. If we can't hide 10% of population, how will we survive nuclear attack.

So bottom line,

this corona virus going to infect everybody. If we don't protect ourselves through quarantine and other safe methods, we will be screwed. Let's not put massive strain on medical facilities. We have 100+ million vulnerable people at hand. It will be millions of deaths on our hands. Just think about these numbers before doing anything stupid.

Another POS son of a bureaucrat returns from England and does not go into quarantine. He might have infected his family and don't know how many others. His dad, the bureaucrat, attended office and if he has the virus, he must have infected some more too. How hard was it to go into isolation for a few days for that idiot.

) Travel of passengers from member countries of the European Union, the European
Free Trade Association, Turkey and United Kingdom to India is prohibited with effect
from 18th March 2020.

At least from today, we will no longer have passengers from most countries. India should stop passengers from US too. In fact, India should simply stop international arrivals, period.

With all schools in Uttar Pradesh closed till April 2 in view of coronavirus outbreak, students of classes one to eight of all government primary schools to get promoted without having to appear in exams.

Sri Lanka suspends all incoming flights for two weeks.

Firm Close to Developing 1st India-Made Coronavirus Test Kits, But ‘Govt Nod May Take 2-3 Weeks’

Amid issues over low testing of suspected Coronavirus circumstances in India, Chennai-based Trivitron Healthcare Group is pitted to be the primary Indian producer to have developed a testing equipment for the virus.

Nonetheless, it might take one other 2-Three weeks for the kits to enter the market as they must first bear testing at a government-approved facility.

Chatting with Information18, Dr GSK Velu, chairman and managing director of Trivitron, stated the corporate has been engaged on the event of the equipment for the final one month and has achieved substantial success in analysis and improvement.

Dr Velu assured that the kits made by the corporate can be half the value of their imported counterparts. He stated the agency plans to promote these kits at Rs 500 to 1000 per check relying on volumes.

Nonetheless, there’s nonetheless no readability on whether or not the kits can be bought to personal hospitals and labs or solely to authorities centres. Media studies have stated that the federal government will permit 50 to 60 personal labs accredited by the Nationwide Accreditation Board for Laboratories (NABL) to do the assessments within the subsequent days.

“We nonetheless don’t have instructions and steerage from the federal government on this regard,” Dr Velu, nevertheless, advised Information18.

He stated the equipment developed by the corporate can be in compliance with world regulatory requirements and can be utilized for all 5 pattern varieties really useful by NIV/ WHO for COVID-19 analysis. The virus might be recognized by both a swab check, a nasal aspirate, a tracheal aspirate, a sputum check or a blood check.

The corporate’s chairman stated they’ve the capability to fabricate as much as 750,000 assessments kits per day and likewise expressed confidence that they are often exported within the coming weeks. “If our kits adjust to established tips and we’ve correct regulatory approvals, we will certainly be capable of provide these kits to completely different international locations,” he stated.