Pashtun Civil War

[Muppalla]

The genocide of pashuns is continuing and that too on Friday. Killing fellow muslims on a Friday by the only Purest Islamic nation in the universe. What an irony.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiap ... militants/

Scores dead in Pakistan gunbattles

Pakistani military forces clashed Friday with Islamic militants in mountainous northwest Pakistan, in battles that left at least 90 militants dead and four military personnel wounded, a military spokesman told CNN.

Pakistani soldiers stands guard at a post in Pakistan's Wana tribal district of South Waziristan.

The militants gathered around the Ladha Fort in South Waziristan -- a tribal territory in Pakistan -- early Friday morning, and fired rockets into the fort, according to military spokesman Lt. Col. Baseer Haider Malik.

[enqyoobOLD]

Troops abandon fort in their own so called Pakistan sovereign territory, from fear of an attack Wink

Now that it is not Pakistan sovereign territory, India should buy loyalty and some territory for money from the rentier population that inahbits there to build Indian embassy and Sikh risalat for initial 5000 acres. Build A big raw data handing complex.

Army 'flees second Pakistan fort'

Panic seems to be setting in. The Pakis went charging in if u recall, and OCCUPIED the high points, like hilltops and forts. Now winter has set in, the hilltops are untenable, the resupply helicopter does not come in too much.

The guys holding the last fort were asked to fight to the last man, bullet etc. while the Colonel sat and drank zamzam cola with the Brigadier's 3rd wife at Brigade HQ.

The Mujaheddin have changed tactics. Instead of 9 guys driving up in a Toyota and taking over the police station, it is now 300 guys swarming a fort, head-on, so that they can grab the weapons (and maybe the uniforms).

So now the first fort has fallen, the Taliban has weapons and ammo. No wonder the guys at the second fort decided to quit while they were still alive.

What next? A chain effect?

[enqyoobOLD]

Pakistani Official Reporting At Its Best

Over 80 militants killed in clashes; army retakes fort:22 paramilitary soldiers still missing
By Our Correspondents


WANA/TANK, Jan 18: Army troops recaptured the Siplatoi fort in South Waziristan on Friday, a day after paramilitary soldiers had abandoned it, sources said.

Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said in a statement that over 80 militants were killed in two separate clashes in the Mahsud area on Friday.

In the first incident, militants attacked a convoy on the Jandola-Wana road in Chagmalai at 12.30pm. Troops returned fire and between 20 and 30 assailants were killed. Four security personnel were injured and two vehicles were damaged.

Also on Friday, security forces attacked a large number of militants who had gathered to attack the Laddah fort and killed up to 60 of them, the ISPR said.

However, the figures could not be verified from independent sources.

Security officials said that army and paramilitary personnel had moved into the area in three helicopters and took over the abandoned Siplatoi fort on the Wana-Jandola road.

An official said that militants launched a rocket attack after security forces had regained control of the fort. One army platoon and a militia contingent were also airlifted to the fort in helicopters.

Over three dozen militiamen had abandoned the fort after receiving reports that militants were assembling to launch an attack.

Sources said that 22 paramilitary soldiers, who had escaped from the Siplatoi fort on Wednesday night, were still missing. Militants claimed that some 60 soldiers had surrendered and all of them were freed on the directives of the Taliban Shura.

On Tuesday night, militants had captured a fort in Sararogha after killing 22 security personnel and taking several others hostage. The sources said that nothing was known about the bodies of the soldiers who had been killed or the fate of the missing soldiers.

Meanwhile, reinforcements were sent to the Chagmalai fort in the Mahsud area on Friday. Troops fired artillery shells from their bases in Wana, Jandola and Manzai on Thursday night.

Security forces pounded with artillery suspected militant locations in the Mahsud area and local people had to move out to safer places.

Local people said that heavy shelling rocked the area and several houses were hit. Two people, including a girl, were killed in Makin and Spinkai Raghzai areas.

Militants fired six rockets on a military base in the Shakai area, inhabited by the Ahmadzai Wazir tribe. No casualty was reported.

Meanwhile, paramilitary soldiers and police backed by army troops conducted a search operation in Gulshen Abad and Gara Boda areas of Tank on Friday and arrested seven suspects.

Earlier, law-enforcement personnel opened fire in the Gara Boda area causing injury to a woman who was taken to a hospital in the city.

OK, very herrowic, to have recaptured the empty and abandoned fort.

But now, from "We have not lost any posts at Kargil" Quereshi's office...

Fort was not abandoned, says ISPR


RAWALPINDI: An ISPR spokesman on Friday strongly denied a foreign agency report that security forces had abandoned the Siplatoi fort in South Waziristan Agency on Thursday.

The spokesman said in a statement that the ‘incorrect’ news had been reported without verification from the authorities concerned.

The Siplatoi fort had not been abandoned and security forces were still holding it. However, miscreants had attacked it using rockets and small arms and security forces returned fire.

The spokesman ‘advised’ the media against using such ‘baseless’ news.—APP

So they killed 80 civilians and bombed the heck out of a whole area just for the fun of it?

[Paul]

The Lodi dynasty, who were rulers of the Delhi Sultanate (1450–1526), were probably Ghilzais.

In 1709, Mirwais Khan Hotak, a Ghilzai Pashtun and founder of the short-lived Hotaki Dynasty (1709-38), led an Afghan tribal revolt against Persian rule that eventually led to the short-lived Afghan rule of Persia from 1722. From 1734 Nader Shah began to wrest control from the Ghilzais.

In the 1880s, large numbers of Ghilzais were deported to northern parts of Afghanistan by the Durrani ruler Abdur Rahman Khan.[3]

The 1978 Khalq uprising against the government of Daoud Khan was essentially a Ghilzai resurgence against the Durrani.[3] Since 1978, three of the Soviet backed presidents where Ghilzais, Nur Mohammed Taraki (of the Taraki tribe), Hafizullah Amin (of the Kharoti tribe), and Mohammed Najibullah (of the Ahmadzai tribe). Although the Khalq was dominated mostly Ghilzais, many of the Mujahideen were also Ghilzais in the Soviet war in Afghanistan, including Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

In the 1990s, the Taliban leadership and rank and file were largely composed of Ghilzai Pashtuns and other related tribes and this has placed the Ghilzai at odds with the Durrani tribe who are currently represented by the administration of President Hamid Karzai and the central Afghan government. Most Ghilzai are however not particularly political and are generally concerned with surviving during Afghanistan's current rebuilding period. The Ghilzai remain one of the largest and most prominent ethnic groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan and continue to enjoy considerable autonomy.

Assuming, what Wiki says is true then it appears that the Afghanistan imbroglio is a continuation of the struggle between the Ghilzais (taliban) and the Durranis (Karzai) factions.....and has been going on since the Lodi dynasty's time. The Ghilzais are the original rulers of this region and were displaced by Nadir Shah and his retainer Ahmed shah Durrani....the soviet invasion of Afghanistan displaced the Durrani dyansty and gave them the opening they were looking for for some time.

The more I look into Pakhtun civil war angle, the more I am convinced that it is an tribal war being carried on in the name of Islam. Ramana...you were right. This is tribalism at it's core.

[ramana]

I have an unfair advantage. I knew a Ghilzai bout 25 years ago and have been following the tribal aspect of the Afghan mess. The Ghilzais are also converts from the original Hindu tribes but the memory is lost. the Durranis being the ruling tribes have association with Northern India and after the Second Afghan War it was the Hindu agent who rode into Kabul on the royal elephant.

[Paul]

Talking of elephants....also need to understand how Hemu...a Hindu came to lead a Afghan confederacy against the Mughals..could it be because the Afghans were still aware of their hindu origins.

[RajeshA]

I think both the Taliban and RAPE have their uses for India, should we care to make use of them.

Pakistan is having its sovereignity raped every day. Vast areas of the "country" are outside the writ of the government. Still Pakistan is not considered an already balkanized country, which means the Pakistani Army can come and go out of Pushtoon and Baluchi areas at will, and in fact under encouragement of "coalition against terrorism".

However a day would come, when the Taliban would have made this war into an open Pushtoon against Pakjabi war, and the Pakjabis would not have the stomach to continue it, but would again have to agree to a ceasefire, this time formally ceasing any claim over the FATA, NWFP and northern Baluchistan to the Pushtoons. Even the nominal sovereignity over these areas would have to go. Probably this time would come, when Lahore and Rawalpindi would become synonymous with daily bomb explosions. Pakistani nukes would not be able to hold the country together.

Should it come to such a pass, the RAPE in Pakjab would tend to throw out all Pushtoon from there, mostly out of fear of terrorism, but also to stop the Talibanisation of the polity in heartland Pakjab, which may at some point in time become a serious danger to the RAPE way of life.

The more the Pushtoon are thrown out of Pakjab, the severer the alienation between the Pushtoon and the Pakjabis.

If Pushtoon areas are able to break away from Pakistan, then Sindh, where subnationalism has heightened in the wake of BB's murder and Pakjabi theft of Sindh's water share, would also try to break away. The Pakjabis are not going to let Sindh go easily, but would have lost the appetite after the Pushtoons give them a beating.

In Baluchistan and Northern Areas, it would be difficult to get the Pakjabis out. These are scarcely populated areas, with the Baluchis and the Gilgitians not well armed. But with Sindhi and Pushtoon areas already out of Pakistan, the Pakjabis would simply lose any moral right in the world to hold on to these areas as well.

What India should do is to supply the Taliban, BLA, Jiye Sindh, Gilgitian Shias and other groups with arms and financing, so that they can free their people from the clutches of the Pakjabis. The bigger the ethnic strife, the more chances there are that India would be looked upon as a mediator even.

We need a secularized RAPE to provide India with the buffer zone between the 7th century Islamofascism of the Taliban in the Pushtoon Areas and India. We need the Northern Areas to be reconnected with Central Asia and at least have an air corridor. We need to make Baluchistan an Indian Union Territory, making us a power in the Persian Gulf. As far as Sindh is concerned, it is mostly populated by people adhering to a more moderate form of Islam like Barelvis and Sufism adherents and Mohajirs from India. Sindh could be integrated into the Indian Union more easily. It is already a part of our National Anthem.

A Pakjab with no access to China through Northern Areas or the Sea through Sindh or to Iran through Baluchistan, with the Taliban Pushtoons on one side breathing down their necks and surrounded by India can far more likely be talked into handing over their nukes to India in return for a border open for trade.

I believe it is a far more likely scenario and indeed more amenable and amiable plan than having a nuclear war with Pakistan or letting the Mullahs take over the whole of Pakistan.

A time would come, when Pakistan would be on the brink of a break up or a takeover by the Islamists. At that time it would be very very important that India has all her chess pieces in place. RAPE should be weak enough to lose the other provinces but strong enough to withstand against the Islamists and the Taliban. India would have to do the calibration.

[svinayak]

I have an unfair advantage. I knew a Ghilzai bout 25 years ago and have been following the tribal aspect of the Afghan mess. The Ghilzais are also converts from the original Hindu tribes but the memory is lost. the Durranis being the ruling tribes have association with Northern India and after the Second Afghan War it was the Hindu agent who rode into Kabul on the royal elephant.

Can we get the names of the Hindu tribes which corresponds to the Afghani tribes

[RajeshA]

This is not about Pushtoon nationalism, but about Sindhi nationalism. Interesting reading...

http://yangtze.cs.uiuc.edu/~jamali/sind ... ode19.html

When Pakistan celebrated Jinnah centenary, lakhs of posters appeared in Sindh denouncing the Quaid-e-Azam as Qadu Hajam (Silly Barber), Qatil-e-Azam (Great Murderer), Kafir-e-Azam (the Great Heathen), and Ghadar-i-Sindh (Traitor to Sindh)

[enqyoobOLD]

The war has reached the next stage: Pakistan Army has sent TANKS and HELICOPTER GUNSHIPS into the area, and the tanks are now attacking population centers, in retaliation for the Mujaheddin's attacks on military facilities. This is turning into another Nicaragua (Somoza regime targeting the civilian population in retaliation for the popularity of the Sandinistas) or like the Spanish Civil War where the "government" was the main villain conducting mass rapes and massacres.

Troops on the offensive in Darra, occupy militants’ stronghold



By Munawar Afridi & Abdul Sami Paracha


DARRA ADAMKHEL/ KOHAT, Jan 25: Troops, backed by tanks and helicopter gunships, launched an operation in Darra Adamkhel on Friday after local militants refused to hand over army’s four ammunition trucks they had seized on Wednesday. The militants are also holding hostage five Frontier Corps personnel they had kidnapped a fortnight ago.

The operation was launched after failure of talks held with the help of a jirga for the retrieval of the trucks and release of the hostages.

Also on Friday, the militants occupied the famous Kohat FC Fort.
(another Frontier Constabulary fort captured, along with whatever weapons and ammo were stored there..)

A jirga intervened to get the fort vacated, but the militants returned the weapons they had taken away but refused to leave the fort till the army withdrew from the area. The troops hit back and destroyed the fort with the help of gunships. Several militants were reported to have been killed in the attack. (Presumably the TSPA also killed their own surviving FC troops who were held inside the fort).

In Darra Adamkhel, security forces took control of the militant stronghold of Akhorwal after a fierce battle.

The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said that the Frontier Corps had cleared important heights in the south of Spina Thana and claimed that between 25 and 30 militants had been killed. (Yeah, but how are they going to hold those "heights" in winter?

An exchange of fire near the Kohat Tunnel and the Frontier Corps held off militants’ advance in the area. (IOW, the Mujaheddin are advancing on tunnels, roads, forts, and capturing weapon convoys, while the TSPA is targeting villages and "militant strongholds" which probably means rocks and caves. )

According to the ISPR, two paramilitary soldiers were killed and 10 others injured in the operation.

Local people said that security forces had cleared the Akhurwal area of militants and started advancing towards the main Darra town. Large-scale displacement of people was reported and families moved away to Peshawar and nearby areas. IOW, refugees are fleeing the MILITARY, not from the Mujaheddin.

Residents of Darra said that firing had stopped at about 6.30pm when security forces captured five bunkers of the militants in Akhurwal, some 30km south of Peshawar.

Tanks pounded the hills around Akhorwal after militants blew up a bridge on the Indus Highway near Darra Adamkhel and a PTCL tower on a hilltop. Reports reaching here indicated that three security men, including a subedar and two soldiers, were killed in the mortar attack on the tower, while 13 others were injured.

In Kohat, some local sub-clans covertly assured their support to the government against militants but could not speak out openly, fearing reprisals.

The political agent of the Frontier Region of Kohat, Mr Kamran Zeb, said he was optimistic that the fighting would end soon and the matter of the snatched trucks would be settled without further bloodshed.

He said they had tried their best to avert the operation, adding that they had sent five jirgas to the militants but all efforts had failed to be futile because of their refusal to hand over the trucks.

He said he still believed that fighting was not the solution, adding that innocent people were suffering because of the operation, which had been launched mainly because of the rigid attitude of the militants.

Helicopter gunships also attacked hideouts in Akhorwal, Tor Chappar and Sheraki areas from where personnel of security forces were being attacked. In the morning, militants continuously attacked the Friendship Tunnel in a bid to block the army’s supply line from the south, but troops successfully defended the strategic place although militants had come quite close to it.

The army cordoned off an area of about one-kilometre radius around the tunnel after receiving reports that militants might try to damage the tunnel by sending a suicide bomber in a vehicle.

The in-charge of forces guarding the tunnel, Maj Sabir, told Dawn that they had been ordered to shoot any vehicle trying to cross the barbed wire along the offices of the NHA in Kohat.

A Taliban spokesman claimed capturing 13 soldiers and killing more than a dozen. But the report could not be confirmed independently.

The gunship fire was continuing till the filing of this report and the authorities were expected to call off the operation tomorrow if the militants did not attack Kohat or army posts.

The Kohat cantonment was sealed and all entry passes were cancelled. (East Pakistan, 1971: cantonments sealed, Pakistan Fauj hides inside).

In the night, thousands of tribesmen were trying to move away from the area to Kohat. They made a temporary stopover near Gulshanabad checkpost where they were in the open without warm clothes and food.

However, some local people brought milk and biscuits and also provided transport to the people who were trying to go to Kohat on foot.

Thousands of people are still trapped in the area where the fighting is raging.

The administration is trying to engage militants in talks, fearing collateral damage in case a full-scale assault is launched.
(It's their own f***ing country and people they're calling "collateral damage" as they plan "full-scale assaults". )

The intensity of the resistance from the militants’ side indicated that the operation might continue for a day or two if they received support from other parts of the tribal belt.

The other interesting development is that the Mujaheddin have captured a convoy of ammunition trucks. Wonder what this will do to their capability to hit back. I am betting that several of the TSPA's tanks will also be captured soon, and there may be a tank-led offensive on Peshawar (or maybe towards Islamabad?)

[Paul]

X-post from TSP Thread...

Mullah Omar follows the golden rule- he who has the gold makes the rules. and his gold comes from ISI/PA. What it means is the Deobandi cadre has used sama to reason with Baitullah. Soon it will be dand and then lets see if Baitullah Mehsud listens to him.

I thought there was two to three year period before it happens. But seems like things are accelerating.

Ramana...the fallout between the Sarkari Pakhtuns and the true Pakhtuns is accelerating.

Behtuallah's brother is Abdullah Mehsud, the one legged Tamerlane who conned the Guantamo bay interrogators into letting him go and gained noterity for kidnapping the chinese engineers. They are at least 4 brothers, and I think 2 are/were army officers. I wonder what those two are upto.

[Raj Malhotra]

I have started having a feeling that uncle SAM may be encouraging the freedom of Pastunisatan from Pigisatan. With huge firefights going on the freedom fighters need constant supply of ammo, where is it coming from?

[enqyoobOLD]

So it looks like now the Mujaheddin are organized into the sort of warfare with which they are familiar - the big tank-and-helicopter-gunship attacks on villages are made by the "sophisticated" armies, and the Mujaheddin just melt away, cross the mountain ridge and attack the roads, bridges, tunnels, and start catching the convoys in the mountain passes. We know how this will end, but it should be great fun watching it too. Wonder if the captured ammo trucks included a few Stingers....

Added later...

The weapons are probably supplied by ISI/ elements of the TSPA themselves, or maybe from A'Stan by the Karzai forces. TSP has been screaming about Indian complicity - this must be the code for Afghan support. So far the Mujaheddin are using AKs and RPGs and mortars, and moving around swiftly using Toyotas, but with the truck captures and the fort captures, they may have got some serious weapons. No wonder the TSPA is getting desperate and trying to raid their bases. If they get serious anti-tank weapons and artillery, the tide is going to turn rather swiftly.

[Johann]

- Re. arms. Why do you think the Pakistani state has been focussing on Darra Adam Khel?

It is the centre of the regional arms trade and local weapons manufacturing. The Pakistani state wants to take control of it and deny it to the Pakiban

When you factor DAK in with captured stocks, the Pakiban have all the weapons they need. All they need is cash, and that they have through Zawahiri, OBL, etc's appeal to jihadi supporters worldwide, aprticularly in the Arab world

- Guerilla strategy is to strike where state forces are weak. They have any number of targets of some value to the state, or that are vital to the state campaign. Usually guarded in at most platoon strength, generally of locally recruited PA auxiliaries with low morale.

Larger garrisons can be bottled up - the state will either have to fight its way to them, or negotiate an agreement to allow supplies through.

- Pakistani state strategy so far is not very different from the Afghan communists and the Soviets. Collective punishment against population centres that seem to be used by the Pakiban, in the hope that locals will drive them out.

The problem for the Paki state is that traditional tribal leadership that might be willing to do that has already either been killed or sufficiently frightened to remain silent. The Pakistani state is only eroding its legitimacy further.

[enqyoobOLD]

Answer to "hu's arming the Taliban?"

As the "CARE" food packages and the diesel rail locomotives used to say, paraphrased:

FROM THE (taxpayers) OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, TO THE ISLAMIC JEHAD OF PAKISTAN

I can almost see the famous handshake emblem under the Eagle on the sides of these trucks.

After the hijacking of the four army trucks carrying ammunition for the army, efforts were made to negotiate with the Taliban through jirgas but there was no response from the terrorists. It is clear that the weapons and munitions they have stolen are of great value to them, not only for the Tribal Areas but in the rest of the country where their jihadi supporters require them to fight the state security forces. One report from Darra is that the trucks have been found but that they are empty, so urgent has been the need for the weapons. This suggests that whichever group took them wanted to make sure that the army would not be able to make a deal with the local warriors over the return of the stolen weapons. In retaliation, the army has killed a score of the militants but one can predict that the rest will go on fighting and will run away only when they fear being completely overwhelmed.

Yet this is not where the real war is taking place. The real war is in South Waziristan where warlord Baitullah Mehsud is running a mini-state of his own and is providing shelter to foreign warriors. He has been successfully raiding the convoys carrying war material to Afghanistan for the use of the 42,000 strong NATO forces. In the latest raid carried out near Dera Ismail Khan in the NWFP, his men were able to selectively take out the long carriers transporting sophisticated vehicles that Mehsud will probably sell. According to reports, he has taken the help of his Uzbek warriors to learn how to operate the four-wheel drive state of the art vehicles. Around 40 percent of the military supplies to NATO forces go through Pakistan, and it appears that our routes, usually going through Khyber Pass, are no longer safe.

Oh, they're "safe" all right, in good hands. The Taliban's.

[enqyoobOLD]

Score is rising.

By Our Correspondent


TANK, Jan 27: The bodies of three soldiers were found in the Makin area of South Waziristan on Sunday.

Sources said that militants had captured 13 soldiers during an attack on the Laddah fort and an observation post on Jan 22. Local people found the three bodies bodies and handed them over to the authorities.

Local people said troops attacked some places in the Makin area but no casualty was reported.

In Laddah area, helicopter gunships bombed several positions. Inter-Services Public Relations said that incidents of firing had taken place in several areas in the region.

Local militants’ spokesman Maulvi Umar warned that they would kill the hostage soldiers one by one if security forces did not stock the operation in the Mehsud area. He claimed that the militants had captured over 120 security personnel in Swat and North and South Waziristan.

[enqyoobOLD]

Three Levies men killed
By Saboor Khan
HANGU: Three Levies personnel were killed and two others injured in attacks on two security checkpoints in Orakzai Agency on Saturday night.

Political authorities said Subaidar Khamim and Constables Hassan and Habib died and Janet Shah and Gul Askar were injured in an exchange of fire after the attacks in Ghalju area.

Sources said the authorities had received warnings from unidentified people demanding that the checkpoints should be removed.

Meanwhile, rockets were fired on the garrison centre in Thall in Hangu district, police said.

They said three rockets landed outside the centre’s gate and two exploded near a Tablighi centre.

Our Ghalanai correspondent adds: Two checkpoints were blown up in Yakaghund area in Mohmand Agency on Saturday night.

[enqyoobOLD]

[quote]Security forces regain control of Kohat tunnel
By Abdul Sami Paracha
KOHAT, Jan 27: Security forces took positions on hilltops around the town of Darra Adamkhel and the Friendship Tunnel on Sunday as 24 militants and five soldiers were killed in clashes.

Sources said firing continued near the tunnel on Saturday night and several blasts were heard in the city.

Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said security forces had cleared the area and regained control of the Kohat tunnel and adjoining areas after fierce fighting.

The tunnel connects the southern parts of the province with Peshawar through the Indus Highway.

The ISPR claimed that 24 militants had been killed and many others had fled leaving arms and ammunition.

On Sunday morning, the troops used four helicopter gunships and heavy machine-guns to pound the hideouts of militants who had taken control of the tunnel on Friday morning and occupied the Kohat hills on Saturday.

After suffering huge casualties and surrendering control of the tunnel, the militants fired five rockets on the Kohat cantonment on Sunday night.

One of the rockets exploded near a military police checkpoint, another in a house in the Happy Valley, two in houses of army officers and one in the Malangabad graveyard. However, no casualties were reported.

According to army sources, clashes were continuing in Tor Chappar, Tora China, Bostikhel, Sheraki, Kotal hills and Akhorwal areas.

Darra Adamkhel administrator Kamran Zeb told Dawn that the top priority of the army was to secure the Friendship Tunnel and the troops would move towards the tunnel once it was cleared. The militants were going to the tunnel in small groups and firing on troops, he said.

A jirga and tribal elders continued their efforts to persuade the militants to hand over the ammunition trucks they had seized and vacate the area immediately.

“Six attempts have been made through the jirga to broker a peace deal with the militants but they seem to be sticking to their stance. Now the only way is to teach them a lesson and the militants will be wiped out from the area in two to three days. The operation will continue till the entire Darra Adamkhel area is cleared of militants,â€

[enqyoobOLD]

50 militants held in Swat
By Hameedullah

SWAT, Jan 27: Fifty militants, including a local commander, were arrested during a military operation in Sambat, Bodigram and Matta areas of Upper Swat on Sunday.

... a Taliban commander, identified as Sher Mohammad Khan, and about 30 of the detained people were hardcore militants loyal to cleric Maulana Fazlullah and wanted by the authorities.
....
The Media Information Centre in Mingora said a large quantity of arms and ammunition, including detonators, Kalashnikovs, rifles, pistols, shotguns and live rounds had been seized.

Meanwhile, police on Sunday found the headless body of a government official in Charbagh. He was identified as Abdul Qayyum, DFC of the Charbagh police station hailing from Pirano Kallay in Malakand. A note found with the body warned that those spying for security forces would meet the same fate.

In Chuprial, militants attacked a pick-up carrying a local man. Sher Ali, who was going to Gwal Dheri, was burned to death.

The motive behind the killing was not known, but local people said that the victim had attended various jirgas and openly supported the military operation against militants.

....
Jirga members held both the government and militants backed by Maulana Fazlullah responsible for the situation in the valley.

They demanded an immediate halt to the military operation and withdrawal of troops. They asked the militants to leave the area and avoid imposing a war on the peace-loving people of Swat.

The jirga said that the economy, tourism industry, education and peace and harmony of Swat had been ruined by the clashes between security forces and militants.

[Paul]

Taliban leadership

Regarded as the Ameerul Mo'mineen. He belonged to Maiwand, Qandahar and was aged 37. His education was obtained from Qandahar Madrassa. During Jehad against the Russians, he had lost one eye during a battle. Mullah Omar is a Ghilzai Hotak.

Mullah Muhammad Rabbani:
Chairman of the Kabul Shura and regarded as second in command to Mullah Muhammad Omar. He was also from Qandahar and was aged 38. He belongs to the Kakarh Tribe.

Mullah Muhammad Hassan:
Served as Foreign Minister after 1997. He is also a Ghilzai Hotak and a close relative of Mullah Omar. His education was completed at a madrassa in Qandahar.

Mullah Muhammad Ghaus:
He served as Foreign Minister and retired in 1997. His position was taken by Mullah Muihammad Hassan. Mullah Ghaus belonged to Khushab near Qandahar and was aged 50. He belongs to the Noorzai Tribe. Like Most other Taleban leades, he is also blind in one eye. There is little sight in the other one. He is regarded as a close friend and associate of Mullah Omar.

Mullah Abdur Razaq:
Minister of the Customs Department. He hails from Qandahar and is a Popalzai.

Mullah Syed Ghiasudin:
He is minister of Education Department and belongs to Faryab.

Mullah Khairullah Khairkhwa:
He is from the Interior Ministry and hails from Qandahar. He also belongs to the Popalzai tribe. His education was completed at Darul Uloom Haqania, Akora Khattak, near Nowshera, NWFP.

Mullah Ehsanullah Ehsan:
Served as Governor of State Bank of Afghanistan. Hailing from Panjwaj near Qandahar. He also served as Governor of Khost province. Mullah Ehsan was martyred in Mazar Sharif in 1997.

Maulvi Abdul Sattar Sanani:
Maulvi Abdul Sattar served as Chief Justice of Qandahar Supreme Court. He hailed from Qandahar and was amongst the most senior Taleban leaders at age 80. His tribe was Ishaqzai and he was educated in Qandahar Madrassah.

Muhammad Abbas:
He was incharge of the Health Ministry and also for dealings with UN Agencies. Muhammad Abbas hailed from Urozgan and was aged 80. He was a Ghilzai Hotak. He started his education in Zabul Madrassa but later on shifted to Darul Uloom Haqqania from where he graduated. After education, he did started trading business in Qandahar and soon became Mayor of Qandahar. Later, he served on post of Attorney General and then commander in Baghlan Force.

Obaidullah Obaid:
Obaidullah Obaid was incharge of the Defence Ministry. He was a Ghilzai Hotak and hailed from Qandahar. His education was completed in Quetta. In conquest of Mazar Sharif, he was arrested by the Northern Alliance. Obaidullah Obaid also served as military liaision between the Taleban and the ISI.

Mullah Dadullah:
Mullah Dadullah was minister of Construction Department.

Muhammadullah Akhund:
Was incharge of the Finance Ministry. He was an Alikozai from Qandahar.

Amir Khan Muttaqi:
He was incharge of the Information and Culture Ministry. Amir Khan was a Kochi Nomad from Logar province. He completed his education from Darul Uloom Haqqania, Akora Khattak and was a close friend of Mullah Omar. He served as commander in the Baghlan force after conquest of Mazar Sharif.

Abdul Latif Mansoor:
He was incharge of the Agriculture Ministry and belonged to Paktia. His studies were completed at Darul Uloom Haqqania, Akora Khattak.

Muhammad Isa:
He was incharge of the Water and Power Ministry. He was a Ghilzai Hotak from Qandahar.

Allah Dad Akhund:
Allah dad Akhund was incharge of the Communications Ministry. He was a Ghilzai Hotak from Qandahar. He also runs a successful Madrassah in the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan.

Mullah Noorudin Turabi:
He was incharge of the Justice Ministry and was a Ghilzai Hotak hailing from Urozgan. Like most Taleban leaders, he was blind in one eye.

Hamidullah Nemani:
He was minister of Department of Higher Education. Belonging to the Daftani tribe, Hamidullah Nemani hailed from Zabul province. He has not received any formal education at all.

Maulvi Ahmad Jan:
He was minister of Mines and Industries. Maulvi Ahmad Jan was a Zadran from Paktia and was aged 40. His studies were completed at Darul Uloom Haqqania. After graduating, he did business as a Carpet Dealer in Saudi Arabia. He also served as Taleban Trade Commissioner in Peshawar and Chief Negotiator with Oil Companies.

Mullah Jalaludin Haqani:
Mullah Haqani was minister of Frontier Affairs. He was also a Zadran, hailing from Paktia and was aged 55. He led
Islami Movement against President Daud in 1974, then Migrated to Pakistan. His initial education was in Paktia province but then later on shifted to Darul Uloom Haqania where he studdied for six years. He Served as a leading Mujahideen Commander. After withdrawal of Russians, he had captured Khost in 1991. Later on, he joined Taleban Movement in 1995.

Sadiq Akhund:
He served as minister of Commerce. Sadiq Akhund was a Ghilzai Hotak from Qandahar. He had obtained no formal education. He was one of the commanders who were successful in capturing of Mazar in 1997.

Qari Din Muhammad:
Qari Din Muhammad was Minister of Planning and Development. He was a Tajik by ethnicity and hailed from Badakhshan. He was Leading Tajik in the council amongst others.

Maulvi Qalamudin:
Maulvi Qalamudin was head of the Religious Police; the Amar Bil Ma'roof Wa Nahi Anil Munkar. He was aged 38 and belonged to the Ghilzai Mohmand Tribe. He hailed from Bariki Barak in Logar province. His education was completed in Logar and Darul Uloom Haqqania, Akora Khattak. He also served as secretary to Nabi Muhammadi in Rabbani Government before the Taleban. It was in Zabul that he joined the Taleban forces.

Maulvi Jalilullah Maulvizai:
Served as Attorney General and hailed from Herat. He was aged 68 and was a Khwaja by ethnicity. His education was completed in Darul Uloom Deoband in India. He served as adviser to the Mujahideen Interim Government in 1988 and also as Education Minister under President Barhanudin Rabbani's government.

Muhammad Hassan:
Muhammad Hassan served as Governor of Qandahar. He was an Achakzai and hailed from Urozgan. He was 45 years old at time of his governorship duties. Graduated from Quetta Maddrassa, Muhammad Hassan fought the Russians in Urozgan. It was in the Jehad against russians that he lost one leg and one fingertip.

Mullah Wakil Ahmad Muttawakil:
Mullah Wakil served as personal Secretary to Mullah Muhammad Omar. He also hailed from Qandahar and belonged to the Kakarh Tribe. He also served as spokesman for the Taleban and was well versed in English.

Sher Muhammad Stanakzai:
Sher Muhammad was Deputy Foreign Minister. He was a Stanakzai from Logar province. Before his joining the Taleban, he was a police officer and was trained in India.

Arifullah Arif:
Arifullah Arif was also Deputy Foreign Minister. He belonged to the Suleiman Khel tribe and hailed from Zamrud in Paktia Province. His education could only be completed until 6th grade; after which he joined Darul Uloom Haqqani from where he graduated. Arifullah has also worked for the Jehad movement in Pakistan.

[Paul]

The news of Behtullah Mehsud breaking away from the Taliban, attacks on the Frontier corps in the NWFP, suicide bombings in Swat and other settled areas have profound implications for Pakistan’s future.

These are stark indications pointing to the emergence of a new set of upstart leaders who have a mind of their own and are not prone to be manipulations by the ISI and their Islamist cohorts like Qazi Hussain Ahmed or even Mullah Omer. The Pakistani leadership is of the opinion that with these sarkari Islamists at the helm they will be able to manipulate both the Islamist Jehad to their tune and at the same time position these moves in front of the west to derive maximum monetory benefit. So far it has worked well....for the future, I am not so sure.

Upstarts like Behtullah Mehsud and Nek Muhammad before him and others have a mind of their own. With 30,000 – 40,000 foot soldiers waiting for their command, these upstarts do not see the need to go through the ISI or the Taliban or MMA to get a seat at the high table. This is where I differ from Johann.

As these second rung of Jehadis start getting more power into their hands, the AmirKhans will have no options but to open lines of communication to these guys and not depend on the ISI or Mush to get their version. This will increase the pressure on Mush as the game starts slipping out of his control. The MMA will have start becoming more Jehadi to compete with these upstart Jehadis.

Right now, it is only Behtullah Mehsud who is challenging the status quoist Taliban and by extension the MMA. Wait for some time and we will see the jehadi movement fracture along tribal lines and more tribals come out of the woodwork…each claiming to be a saccha jehadi than the other. It is next to impossible for one leader to command the loyalty of all Pakhtuns.

Goes back to my first post of civil war between sarakari Pakhtuns competing with nationalist Pakhtuns competing under the burkha of Islam.

As a loose analogy - think of the Mandal commission unleashing a new set of mongrels on the street - Mulayam singh Yadav, Laloo, paswan, Sharad Yadav etc. They have all carved out their own fiefdoms and wiped out the influence of alsation pedigree Jagjivan Ram who was a Sarkari Harijan.

[vsudhir]

Well if Baitullah and party have broken outta the ISI control cage, then I guess its just a matter of time before the ISI crushes them out of existence. No reason to hold back. Unless these neo jihadists have some grip over TSP jugular in the cities. And loyalties among the TSPA lower ranks. Given Baitullah's ethnic/tribal appeal and following, that seems unlikely.

I expect to see TSPA bomb South waziristan to dust and carry on biz as usual.

[enqyoobOLD]

Bait-ullah Masood is exactly that - BAIT - for the Americans to bite on, and come blundering into NWFP, at which point the TSPA will have won. There is only one way that war can end, and that is with the Americans getting tired of seeing Americans die, and walking out. How many hundreds of thousands of Pashtuns die is irrelevant - the more the merrier for TSPA. Tons of baksheesh, more and more as the Americans sink deeper into the poo.

Look at the present situation - the TSPA trains and protects the "terrorists" as they attack Americans inside Afghanistan. Americans ship more and more weapons, supplies, all conveniently packed in nice trucks, and send them through the Indus Highway, and the "Taliban" receive these with glee at the 'Friendship Tunnel". TSPA gets a cut from both sides, plus rental on the trucks, and usage charges for the highway.

Imagine how many times this will be multiplied when there is a ground force of 100,000 Americans dying in Waziristan.

Mind u, the Americans will "defeat" the Taliban. They will "win" every battle. The kill ratio will be awfully impressive. And they will lose the war, just as they are losing now in Afghanistan, because there is no ending the war, as long as there are a dozen Abduls loose in Waziristan with BakPaks or RPGs or IED Mubarak.

The hype about BAIT-ullah is getting more intense by the day. First he killed BB. Then he threatened Mush. Then he took over parts of FATWA. Now he has threatened New York and London, directly. Oh, yeah! HOW can the Americans not take up THAT challenge?

Watch "The Eagle Has Landed". You'll c the model of American combat operations that the TSPA is hoping for.

[Paul]

I agree that Behtullah Mehsud being a mole for Mush cannot be ruled out. After all his brothers were Pakistan army officers.

However, his other brother Abdullah Mehsud was a Gitmo detainee and attained 'Shahadat' when cornered by the pakistan army.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdullah_Mehsud

Though he claims to be motivated by his deep devotion to Islam, Baitullah doesn't shun a profit when there's one to be made. The Taliban paid him $70,000 to hunt down diplomats from countries that published cartoons depicting Allah. On February 8, 2005, Baitullah and four other militant tribal leaders signed a peace agreement with the Pakistani government. They drove a hard bargain, agreeing to sign only after being paid $540,000. As part of the agreement, Baitullah promised not to support the Taliban or Al Qaeda, but at the peace negotiations he openly swore his allegiance to the Taliban's Mullah Omar. In demanding higher payments, the other leaders said that they needed more money because they were in debt to Al Qaeda and felt it was a matter of honor to pay off that debt. The United States has given Pakistan over $10 billion in aid since Sept. 11, 2001. Did the money that was paid to these militant leaders come from the American purse, and did it ultimately thereby find its way to America's sworn enemies?

Baitullah keeps a much lower profile. He refuses to be photographed and keeps his face covered in public. He reaches out to his people through FM radio broadcasts. He crosses the border into Afghanistan at will to fight against the "crusaders." Left unchecked, it's uncertain where and with whom he will strike next.

http://www.crimelibrary.com/news/origin ... sud_1.html

Both the Taliban and Al Qaeda have sought his support to accomplish their particular goals. The Taliban want to concentrate their efforts on waging war in Afghanistan and regaining control there.Taliban does not want to lost it's focus from Afghanisatn. Is this why they have developed differences with Behtullah [b/]Al Qaeda militants want a worldwide jihad against all governments aligned with the United States, starting with Pakistan. Baitullah can send forces east into Afghanistan to help Taliban fighters or keep them in Pakistan to undermine the government. So far he has done both.

Since Sept. 11, 2001, the United States has given Pakistan $10 billion to help fight terrorism. But some believe that some of that money found its way into Baitullah Mehsud's accounts. If so, what has he done with it? Is he content to serve the interests of the Taliban and Al Qaeda, or does he have ambitions of his own—even nuclear ambitions?

[vsudhir]

N^3,

Assumption is yamrika will rush in ground forces.

What if the yanks don't rise upto the bait-oolah?

What if they instead decide to send lots of weapons to TSP from the air aimed directly into gaanFATA?

Much as we love to point out yamriki mistakes, why can't this FATA ploy be another example of gola's tactical brilliance?

It can backfire bigtime if yamrikis decide to fite the taliban in FATA the way they fought the talibs before kabul fell to the NA in 2002. There's no doubt that TSP could do with yamriki bum destruction minus the reconstruction charade we see in Afghanistan.

JMTs etc.

[enqyoobOLD]

All this is about $$, not religion or politics. The main source of $$ is the hashish. All the rest is driven by that. The guys at the top raking in the $$ are willing to go to any lengths.

The Americans are getting sucked in very systematically. The Pakistani Army does NOT mind the Americans coming in, because in Afghanistan, the opium crop has gone up by a large factor since the "liberation".

No, the Americans are not smart enough to avoid getting sucked in. And no, the American system is such that the gung-ho types backed by the industry types, will put all their genius into convincing the high-ups that technology can win the war - you know, sensors inside the weapon-trailers into FATWA, Predators launching $1M missiles into $0.02 mud huts... And then they will go charging in to "secure the area" - and a few will die and some will get captured - and then many more will go charging in, like in Fallujah... and then the helicopters will come in ... like in Mogadishu - and then it will be arrogance and H&D hurt, and "payback" and election promises to "bring the boys back" and then "surges" ....

The Iraq war was also "won" in the 1st 3 weeks, remember, with almost zero Coalition casualties. The Afghan war was "won" with only 1 American death - "Mike" of the CIA in the prison break in central Afghanistan. Why did both these then deteriorate to where we are now? Where is the learning?

They will never win the "war" in a million years that way. And yes, they are too stupid to understand that their enemy is in Islamabad - and it is 80% arrogance and 20% stupidity.

[Harish]

N^3, won't the landing of Amriki boots on Bakistani soil erase whatever notional distinction the AlQ and Taliban makes between Afghanistan and Blightistan? And thereby send the Talibunnies operating in Afghanistan charging inside and causing the exact opposite of what the Americans intend to do - "restore peace" by defeating the talibs? Unless American intent is itself exactly the opposite.

The picture of 1000s of Amriki sena deaths is highly exaggerated. They will start using napalm and radiation weapons long before the situation even begins to get that serious. Long before that Bakistan itself will have melted away due to blowback from all sorts of terrorists causing mayhem inside 'pindi and isloo. Amriki sena inside Baki soil, leading operations, will be the last straw that broke the goat's back. Not that I am complaining.

[enqyoobOLD]

US death count in Eyerak is 3941 as of 1/30/2008. 5 died on 1/30.


Did you notice when it passed 3500? 3000? 2500? I stopped looking when it crossed 2000.

Pakistan has several times the population of Iraq, and much heavier concentration of nutcase Fedayeen among that population. Also, FATWA is much worse than most of Eyerak in terrain and basic hostility. Iraq is either river delta, oasis, or pukka desert where nothing grows, whereas FATWA is semi-arid, high altitude, very mountainous, sharp ridges and scattered pockets of population so that sh1theads can go from one village to another in a day's trek, hitting a few convoys and buggering a few goats and children on the way. All these are recipe for a huge casualty count, which ALWAYS seems "just on the verge of a decisive victory". This is what has sucked in armies from the time of Alexander, to a no-win stalemate.

Think 20 deaths per day, instead of the 5/day in Iraq. So a year will kill over 7000.

[Paul]

The denial of the Frontier’s non-violent, secular history by the Islamic state of Pakistan has led to the fostering of a singular, aggressively tribal identity. Combined with the state-sponsored Afghan jihad of the ‘80s and its legacy of violence, the Talibanisation which has swept both Southern Afghanistan and the Frontier was inevitable. The chicks nurtured by the Pakistani establishment have come home to roost with disastrous consequences. When power is not shared, the compact between people’s fractures, and finally the entity that is the repository of that agreement, also breaks. The Khans of Charsadda, long dubbed traitors by the Punjabi-dominated establishment of Pakistan, were the federation’s best hope. In their absence, there is only the wild and violent code of the Taliban which is destroying the very compact that was the basis of the federation of Pakistan.

TFT

Hence the Taliban are a vehicle for realizing Pakhtun aspirations in Pakistan will sear Pakistan's soul by the time they are realized.

[Johann]

Upstarts like Behtullah Mehsud and Nek Muhammad before him and others have a mind of their own. With 30,000 – 40,000 foot soldiers waiting for their command, these upstarts do not see the need to go through the ISI or the Taliban or MMA to get a seat at the high table. This is where I differ from Johann.

Actually I have no substantial disagreements here whatsoever.

I've said it here before - where it started was that Baitullah Mehsud was not willing to play along with Musharraf's double game (temporarily turning out foreign jihadi guests), or to accept being targeted by the Pakistanis for that defiance.

I will say that I dont buy Mehsud's claim to "30-40k" armed supporters. That is wildly overstated.

But there's an exceptionally strong pro-jihad current in Waziristan, particularly among younger men, increasing amounts of money from the drug trade, lots of money from the Gulf, and the Pakistani elite divided and turbulent at the top. I'm not surprised he's gone for it

As these second rung of Jehadis start getting more power into their hands, the AmirKhans will have no options but to open lines of communication to these guys and not depend on the ISI or Mush to get their version. This will increase the pressure on Mush as the game starts slipping out of his control. The MMA will have start becoming more Jehadi to compete with these upstart Jehadis.

Right now, it is only Behtullah Mehsud who is challenging the status quoist Taliban and by extension the MMA. Wait for some time and we will see the jehadi movement fracture along tribal lines and more tribals come out of the woodwork…each claiming to be a saccha jehadi than the other. It is next to impossible for one leader to command the loyalty of all Pakhtuns.

Paul, what I think is important here is the generational element of internal conflict that's going on *within* tribes.

Younger jihadi leaders armed with fatwa are bumping off their *own* tribal leadership that attempts to broker compromises with the Paki state.

This is a new development in Pakistan - this kind of breakdown in social order is *very* reminicent of what took place in Pashtun areas of Afghanistan as the Anti-Soviet jihad wound down. The 'commanders' became the only power that mattered - they could get away with anything, and had practically none of the usual restraints on behaviour towards fellow tribesmen, etc.

Part of the Taleban's ability to maintain order in Pashtun areas was based not only on the fanatic hard core committed to the jihadist vision, but their ability to *pay* (largely funded by the Saudis and the Emirates and funneled through the Pakistanis) Afghan commanders to come over to their side and stay there.

If the Pakiban led by Mehsud can keep these emerging 'commanders' paid, they will hold things together.

[Johann]

Been gone for a bit, but this *really* ought to have been put up by someone else;

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2008/20080204/j&k.htm

Jammu, February 3 (UNI)

At least nine brigades of various Strike Corps, including two from the crucial I Corps's (also known as Army Reserve North) Kharian-based 17 Infantry Division, have been moved towards violent Afghan borders, sources said.

...Sources said three Brigades of Peshawar-based XI Corps and two of Quetta-based XII Corps were also moved to take on violence in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) on bordering Afghanistan.

...Meanwhile, sources said one Brigade each from the XXX Corps (Gujaranwala) and Bahawalpur-headquartered XXXI Corps has also been relocated to meet the ''internal crises'' in Pakistan.

This is the equivalent of an entire *corps* that has been shifted westwards from the IB/LoC.

The PA for the last four years of operations in Pasthun areas has attempted to avoid any fundamental re-alignment of forces - much of the burden has fallen on paramilitary internal security forces like the Frontier Corps.

The battalion-level Taliban assaults on four FC forts in mid-January, the friendship tunnel, etc, and the shortage of manpower to retake these positions *and* secure lines of communication between them has forced the PA to face reality.

Unlike the Soviets in Afghanistan, or the Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Pakistanis do have the manpower to re-establish basic physical control of population centres and main roads *simultaneously*.

This will come at the cost of the Pakistan Army's ability to mount offensive operations (Zia's 'riposte' doctrine) across the IB/LoC has been seriously, as well as its strategic reserves, and its overall strategic flexibility.

These force re-alignments are not temporary, because Pakistan's problems with the Taliban are far from temporary.

The Pakistani Army is going to be a lot more nervous when thinking about conventional conflict with India.

===============================================

A technical malfunction in a Bell helicopter resulted in the killing of General Officer Commanding Kohat Major General Javed Sultan, two Brigadiars, two pilots and a Junior Commissioned Officer in South Waziristan Agency.

Maj. Gen. Sultan had commanded 9th Infantry Division since November. The division has had the lead role in operations in Waziristan right from the start.

Although the Pakistanis are denying it, it is *very* possible that the helicopter was shot down by the Pakiban.

The Pakistanis have had helicopters hit several times in the last year of operations in Waziristan, although they are extremely cagey about their exact losses.

As I said earlier, the size of the theatre, the number of places where the Taliban are operating, combined with battle damage and losses in previous operations has affected their AH-1 gunship availability in particular. There's a lot more use of artillery.

The threat to transport helicopters can be managed, but it makes securing the roads all the more important, particularly given the PA and PAF's airlift capacity was moderate to start with.

[Paul]

X-posting from ASharma's article in the Pakiland thread....

Goes to prove BRF's groundbreaking observation that the Taliban are Pakhtun nationalists's team B.


GRAEME SMITH
Pakistan's brutal beneficiaries betray their refuge



Globe survey finds Taliban have only harsh words for nation that allegedly supports them, claiming large parts of it belong to them

Every insurgent asked by The Globe researcher said huge parts of Pakistan belong to Afghanistan, but they offered varying ideas about how much territory should be claimed and how it is historically justified.

One fighter said that only half of Pakistan's provinces, Sindh and Punjab, rightfully belong in the country.
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"Unfortunately, at the moment, Afghanistan is in a big pressure: Non-Muslims are here," another fighter added. "But when the non-Muslims leave Afghanistan, then it [the Durand territory] can never be a part of Pakistan. We will erase the Durand line."

Others blamed the government of President Hamid Karzai for failing to raise the issue with Islamabad, implying that Mr. Karzai cannot take action because he is controlled by foreign powers.

3-4 years ago, I had said on this forum that the so called India threat on Pakistan's eastern borders are a red herring. Based on the historical evidence, the real threat is on it's western frontiers.

The RAPEs need to start working overtime on a security arrangement with India or they will soon have to start sending their sons and daughters to the Pakhtun harem.

[Paul]

Once the Pakhtuns appropropriate NWFP for Afghanistan, we will have lost the benefits of all the work the great Ranjit Singh did for India...namely establishing a buffer state to ensure the security of the Punjab...but it is better to let the Pakjabis suffer the consquences of their misdeeds first.

[Paul]

This will come at the cost of the Pakistan Army's ability to mount offensive operations (Zia's 'riposte' doctrine) across the IB/LoC has been seriously, as well as its strategic reserves, and its overall strategic flexibility.

These force re-alignments are not temporary, because Pakistan's problems with the Taliban are far from temporary.

Pakistan will try to make this realignment temporary by replicating the Rashtriya Rifles success in J&K. The FC and other paramilitaries will be puffed up to take on the Taliban....only time will tell if they will succeed.

and of course funding will never be a problem as they can dip into Uncle Sam's pocket to filch whatever they need.

[Paul]

Based on Khaled Ahmed's latest article in TFT, I am thinking that the formation a pushtun state with it's eastern borders on banks of the Indus river is a certainty...only question is who will control this state, The Ghilzais(Taliban) or the Saddozais branch (nominally headed by Karzai). This will happen irrespective of whther the west stays or leaves Afghanistan. The western parts of Afghanistan will also change as in the rump NA controlling the Tajik territories, DOstam in charge of Mazar Sharif, and Iran or post-Iran influence over Herat.

This will happen for sure... within +/- 10 years for sure.

Khaled Ahmed
The united Pakhtun 'nation' in control of the south of Afghanistan will be even less willing to recognise the Durand Line as a frontier between the two countries. And it will draw the new line along the Indus River at Attock

Adjust Font Size The Friday Times The Friday Times




An Afghan National Army (ANA) soldier keeps watch at a checkpoint in the Arghandab District of Kandahar on June 18, 2008. Afghan and NATO troops backed by helicopter gunships have launched a massive “clean-up” operation to drive Taliban militants from villages near Kandahar – AFP

On June 13, 2008, the Taliban did something that shook the confidence the NATO-ISAF forces in Afghanistan had developed over a period they characterised as one of reversal for the Al Qaeda-Taliban invaders. They attacked the Sarposa prison in Kandahar and sprang the entire population of the main prison, forcing the Afghan government to believe the rumour that the Taliban may be about to take Kandahar and mount a serious challenge to the Afghan government in the south.

The Taliban had used a combination of suicide-bombers, many of them Pakistanis, and heavily armed fighters, many of them Arabs, that blasted the mud walls of the prison open and sent more than a thousand inmates scurrying into the countryside. There was a fleet of mini-buses outside with their engines running ‘to collect the 450 Taliban militants housed in the jail’. This was heart-breaking for Kabul and the NATO commanders: they had thought that since the Taliban had not attacked much after the summer snowmelt, they must be in retreat.

That is when President Karzai lost his cool and delivered the famous threat of June 15, 2008. He said Afghanistan would target locations inside Pakistan to end terrorist infiltration into Afghanistan. Karzai certainly lowered the bar on negative exchanges and said something serious, but he specifically named warlords Baitullah Mehsud, Maulvi Umar and Maulana Fazlullah, for whom he will “send troops across the border”. He also specified that their houses would be targeted, which implied the use of air power too.

Suddenly the enemy is across the border. A TV anchor queried the Afghan ambassador in Islamabad on when the Afghan government would start getting the Americans out of Afghanistan since the Americans tended to destabilise any region they enter. But what about the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) inviting Islamabad to make peace with the ‘emirate’ of Baitullah Mehsud and his Al Qaeda masters on their terms?

Islamabad has a stance towards Afghanistan based on legal jurisprudence. Pakistan accepted the 2001 Resolution 1373 of the UN Security Council and thus the NATO-ISAF presence there. If it has problems with these forces, there is a mechanism of regular consultation provided by the UN.

Now contrast the enemy in Afghanistan with the enemy in South Waziristan which has annexed territory in the Tribal Areas and invades the settled areas of the NWFP to impose its writ there too. There is no mechanism of resolution of disputes with the ‘emirate’ and all the talking is done through raids and through suicide-bombings from Peshawar to Karachi. This ‘talking’ tames the politicians and TV anchors alike and makes them act hostile towards the American presence in Afghanistan, and terms any counter-measure to the terrorism of the ‘emirate’ as war ‘against our own people’.

The usual stereotypes are being deployed: the continuing disorder in Afghanistan, the lopsided representation of different ethnicities in its democratic system, the failure of the NATO-ISAF forces to provide security to the population, and the “puppet” nature of the presidency whose incumbent doesn’t feel secure a few miles outside Kabul. Add to that the ‘theorising’ about the advance into Afghanistan of the United States to secure the supply of strategic oil and gas resources of Central Asia, and you have the sum total of what Pakistanis have to say about the current political order in Afghanistan. The man who used to fling accusations from our side, President Musharraf, is about to bite the dust, but President Karzai is still there. The question very soon will be which state is more chaotic?

General Dan K McNeill, who left Afghanistan after 16 months of commanding the NATO-ISAF forces in Afghanistan, has said in Washington that raids into Afghanistan arose by 50 percent in April, and the reason was lack of ‘a more robust military campaign against insurgents in Pakistan’. He pointed to collusion between the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani tribals and even indirectly explained the recent killing of Pakistani border guards together with the Taliban raiders by criticising a US-funded programme to train and equip Pakistan’s Frontier Corps (FC), and questioning ‘the effectiveness and loyalty of the tribally recruited guards’.

While Pakistan was busy witnessing the mammoth Long March in Islamabad on June 14, 2008, the Taliban had broken free of all peace deals and attacked half a dozen checkposts in the Tribal Areas, bombing the paramilitary forces there. Attacks on music shops, cell-phone shops and girls’ schools continued in the settled areas on which there was an agreement of truce with the NWFP government. Making clear who the Taliban were after, they even tried unsuccessfully to kidnap the son of Mr Amir Muqam, a prominent member of the PMLQ in the NWFP. So unsure is the provincial government of the capacity of the federal government to defend the country against the Taliban that when the federal government tried to wriggle out of the peace deals, the NWFP government refused to go along.

The problem is that Pakistan is finding it politically difficult to face the enemy in the Tribal Areas. The political parties now in government had rejected the policy of confrontation adopted by President Musharraf and cannot own it after coming to power. President Musharraf’s policy of facing up to the Taliban in Pakistan also lacked conviction because he sought repeatedly to strike the emotional chord among the Pakhtun of Pakistan by criticising how the Americans had botched another operation after Iraq in Afghanistan.

So flimsy was the resolve behind taking on Baitullah Mehsud after declaring that he had killed Ms Bhutto, that the caretaker government under Musharraf actually declared, through its interior minister General (Retd) Hamid Nawaz, that the attacks inside Pakistan, including suicide-bombings, were being organised by the United States!

Pakistan is faced with two enemies. The one in the Tribal Areas it is in the process of disowning as an enemy inside its own territory. It feels more comfortable having just one enemy across the border in Afghanistan. That harmonises with the prevailing emotion of the people. This strategy is that of subterfuge. If it was clever, one would support it even at the risk of accepting something immoral. It is a subterfuge that is going to harm Pakistan, and that may be sooner rather than later.

Islamabad will have to decide to deal with the ‘emirate’ of the warlords in South Waziristan whether it likes it or not. The TV anchor who asked the Afghan ambassador to get rid of the Americans from Afghanistan had not weighed the post-exit situation in Afghanistan and how it would benefit Pakistan.

Let us assume that the NATO forces leave Pakistan. (The non-Americans always wanted to leave till the French changed tack under President Sarkozy.) That will be followed by the flight of Karzai to possibly India and the retreat of the Northern Alliance to the North, to lick its wounds in what is considered the area of influence of Uzbekistan, backed by Turkey among others. The Taliban will form the next government and this time the effects of what happens in Kabul will be palpable inside Pakistan.

It will be found to the shock of all Punjabi patriots of PPP and PMLN that this united Pakhtun ‘nation’ in control of the south of Afghanistan is even less willing to recognise the Durand Line as a frontier between the two countries. And it will draw the new line along the Indus River at Attock.

Both Karzai and Taliban agree on one thing for sure....THe eastern border of the Afghan state is not the Durand Line.

Amirkhan is fighting against the tide of history.

[sanjaykumar]

Khaled Ahmed

Excellent synopsis-the Friday Tmes can't possibly be out of Pakistan-where are they located?

[ramana]

Paul, I think it will be the Ghilzais. I read some where that they were set aside and the others got power during the later Mughal period. So the Ghilzai movement is a PONAM movement finding expression in the Pakhtoon and now Taliban movement. It is also another aspect of political power to the people based on numerical majority.

What are the tribal demographics of the Pakhtoons? How many Ghilzai vesus the rest?

[Paul]

I agree Ramana, I think the Ghilzai will win in Afghanistan as well as they have a de facto Islamic Emirate to fall back upon. Karzai (Pupulzai) in contrast has the Amirkhans.

However, I also think that most of the other Pakhtun tribes are just camp followers, will fall in line with whoever wins in the Pakhtun heartland.....viz Kandahar. Afridis and Khattaks have reputations of being brigands and sarkari Pakhtuns and qualify only as the carpetbaggers.

Interestingly, on a related note the latest article on this subject in SAAG refers to the Jaish-e-mohammad as Punjabi Taliban.

Till now we have assumed all taliban as Pakhtuns....we need to delving deeper into the ethnic makeup of the taliban to analyze the of the JEM, LET (Pakjabi/anti Indian) types will go to when the Taliban start crossing the Indus in strength.

[Paul]

Something to keep in mind - All Pakhtuns in Afghanistan are either Durranis or Ghilzais. They are like the Sisodias of Mewar - the blue blooded Pakhtuns. Leadership of the Afghanistan comes if reqd from Pakhtuns comes only from these groups.

Pakhtun tribes in Present day pakistan - Afridis, Wazirs, Mohmands, Mehsuds, are either carpetbaggers who join in for the loot or are Sarkari Pakhtuns like the Khattaks.

[ramana]

Karzai is a Durrani. Mullah Omar is a Ghilzai. Most of the Taliban ranks are Ghilzais. The Durranis displaced the Ghilzais. What does Caroe's book say? This is what I heard.