Page 7 of 59

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 10:53
by Singha
my BIL works in ICICI. the right hand there does not know what left hand
is doing. instances of staff theft are known - from his branch 1L went
missing due to a insider job. he always advises me to shift elsewhere
...out of sheer laziness I was not distributing it into hdfc, sbi-m and citi
but looking at the sonar scope I will now.

though private, the GOI probably will step in to help should there be
a run on ICICI or HDFC. but I wouldnt want to trust everything on a test
of that theory. they are the BoA and Citi of India in assets relative to
others.

SBI is where the GOI keeps most of its official accounts so thats backed
by Govt .... yet TOI reports numerous instances of Govt pension type
checks bouncing recently in KT....so one can never be sure to the extent
of fidelity and love in such marriages.

gold under the mattress if you live in a safe place is an option.
but there are % losses in buying and selling at retail (small) volumes.

keeping cash just attracts termites and thieves.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 11:27
by Rupesh
Its better to stick to Sarkari Banks..atleast the govt cannot allow them to sink. Post Office will be another option. I'm looooosing hell of a lot in MF's , stopped checking NAV. Its back to the old days of Bank FD's.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 11:33
by rsingh
At its peak last year, investment banks had borrowed $32 on average for every dollar of their assets, according to research from Ladenburg Thalmann. The borrowing helped the industry turn record profits, hire more people and pay out eye-popping bonuses. And it pumped up financial stocks, making them the largest segment of the Standard & Poor’s 500-share index from 2001 until this spring.
How on earth they do it? If borrowing is turned into profits..........then who needs MBAs :rotfl:

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 11:38
by Singha
the top5% people in wall street are the most cunning imaginable.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 11:44
by arnab
Singha wrote:the top5% people in wall street are the most cunning imaginable.
Looks like the Large Halidron Collider did create a black hole :lol:

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 13:39
by Vikas
Aiyoo..I recently most of my savings to ICICI bank in one of their FD scheme (Guess it was something to do with housing).
Need to get out of ICICI bank and go back to good old PNB.Darn they would charge exit fee if I get out before October :(( :(( :((

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 13:43
by Singha
someone was peddling a media & film industry mutual fund last week. 8)

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 17:50
by Sanjay M
India's ICICI says has 57 mln euro of Lehman bonds

Tue Sep 16, 2008 7:35am EDT

MUMBAI, Sept 16 (Reuters) - India's ICICI Bank (ICBK.BO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said on Tuesday it had 57 million euros ($81 million) of Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) senior bonds, and would increase its provision on the debt by about $28 million to cover half of that exposure.

India's second-largest bank said it had already provided about $12 million against the investment in the bonds.

"Considering a 50 percent recovery estimate, the additional provision required would be about $28 million," joint managing director and chief financial officer Chanda Kochhar said in a statement.

"There is no other material impact on ICICI Bank or ICICI Bank UK PLC on account of exposure to Lehman Brothers," she said.

Shares in ICICI, which fell as much 10 percent during the day, ended down 5.8 percent at a two-month closing low of 591.35 rupees in a Mumbai market that ended 0.1 percent lower.

The investments were made by ICICI Bank's UK unit, which had total assets of $8.7 billion as on June 30, 2008, Kochhar said.

ICICI Group and its subsidiaries had consolidated total assets of 4.85 trillion rupees ($103 billion) as June 30, and the exposure was less than 0.1 percent of total assets, she said. ($1=0.702 euro; $1=46.9 rupees)) (Reporting by Kaustav Roy & Narayanan Somasundaram; Editing by John Mair)

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 19:00
by Kakkaji
Isn't there any FDIC type bank deposit insurance in place in India?

Which banks are good for term deposits?

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 19:31
by John Snow
Except for land mortgage banks, or co operative banks, all banks have to have insurance, RBI regulates this. If it is a nationalized bank like Canara Bank, Indian Bank, Central bank, State Bank of India the liability is for GOI

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 20:32
by Vipul
Keep in mind though that irrespective of the amount you have in the fixed deposit, the insurance coverage is good for a maximum of 1 lac Rs only (per account).

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 20:46
by Singha
which means the shirts on our backs will be gone if a large bank collapses. 1 lakh - thats a joke.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 21:23
by Vipul
Yes Precisely.The only fail safe (if you could call it that) option is to have multiple accounts (one in each big nationalised bank or have an account in each family members name in the same bank).

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 21:26
by sugriva
Vipul wrote:Keep in mind though that irrespective of the amount you have in the fixed deposit, the insurance coverage is good for a maximum of 1 lac Rs only (per account).
Correction, the insurance coverage is 100K per depositor and not per account.

See http://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/FAQView.aspx?Id=64
Points 3 and 5

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 23:09
by Vriksh
We have a small business (<10L per year) that is operating out of a single SBI account. Is this safe? Should I be changing my banking to reflect the uncertainties in the financial markets?

On the other hand I face the following problem:

Most of my clients are working on govt. funded infrastructure projects and even though I deliver my end of the deal thru blood, sweat and tears. Payments for services and goods provided appear in my accounts 6-8months even 12 months after the delivery date. Usually the clients try to postpone payment by demanding N number of certificates of usage, reliability etc etc that are not part of the contract. Given the state of the judicial system in India, suing them for non-compliance is a non starter (bad blood, extended trial dates, goodaism etc etc)

Being a small business owner (Its a technology company) we have had to take debts in order to fulfill our contractual obligations at ~18% pa and every delay in payment is a massive financial burden. Any ideas on how to ensure that either payments are prompt or be able to anticipate such irregularities to accordingly bid for tenders?

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 23:13
by Vipul
By account i meant an account name and hence had suggested having it in different banks or in case of the same bank having one in each family members name.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 23:27
by svinayak
The price of insurance for CDS swap on US $ is increasing at alarming rate, indicating increase in risk, just like what's happening Banks.

If you have not purchased gold/gold mining stocks, time to start accumulating, when the prices are coming down, currently. This is what happened to Asian currencies in '90s! There is a lase sense of security by run towards Treasury and Bond backed by US Govt.
There will be crisis of confidence in US Govt sometime in near future(?) leading GLOBAL Equity CRASH. Be prepared with enough GOLD and other precious materials, Inverse BEAR ETFs, plus OIL(?) in the portfolio. So far the things are happening as expected last Spring but I am shocked with the speed, I didn't expect . GOOD LUCK and good trading/investing\
Economy
Amid the Turmoil, Remember Our Credit Rating

By Howard Simons
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/16/2008 7:42 AM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/economy/10437412.html

I noted in a Columnist Conversation posting two months ago, on the date of the first Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) backstopping, how the U.S. government was running a significant risk by extending its balance sheet to all and sundry in its various financial crisis rescue operations.


At the time of this writing, which happens to be late Sunday night after Bank of America (BAC) offered to buy out Merrill Lynch (MER) and after various rescue plans for Lehman Brothers collapsed, it seems as though the Treasury and the Federal Reserve both took themselves out of the bailout business. The Fed agreed to accept additional collateral on loans, including equities, but we now recognize that not everyone can be saved.


AIG (AIG) asked for a $40 billion bridge loan from the Federal Reserve, even though it is not a bank. I suppose when all is said and done on this unbelievable chapter in financial history, Wall Street will look very different. I am beginning to understand, for example, why the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 separated investment and commercial banking.


How well have any of these financial conglomerates managed their businesses? We call it "too big to fail," but in reality, it is too big to succeed. We now know Sandy Weill and Hank Greenberg could juggle, for a while at least, all the separate businesses at Citigroup (C) and AIG, but that none of their successors could.
Sovereign Credit Risk
As I noted in another, more recent Columnist Conversation posting, good intentions and good policy often are different things. We can and most surely will survive this current crisis, but the one thing we should protect at all costs is the credit rating of the U.S. The country might not have survived the presidency of George Washington had Alexander Hamilton not worked to establish and maintain the good faith and credit of the fledgling U.S. government. We say it's all about the Benjamins, but in reality it is and always has been all about the Alexanders.


While U.S. Treasuries are still AAA-rated, we can say the various extensions of Treasury credit and the Federal Reserve's acceptance of everything up to baseball card and comic book collections as collateral in exchange for loans of its holdings of Treasury securities has pressed credit default swap (CDS) rates higher on U.S. Treasuries. These swaps are priced in euros on the logic that if the U.S. defaults, the dollar will be worthless. Similarly, there are swaps on both German and Japanese government bonds priced in dollars for the equal and opposite reason.


Those CDS costs have been rising; they were in the neighborhood of 10 basis points for 10-year notes back in April and have moved north of 20 basis points now. The five-year note CDS for both U.S. Treasuries and German bunds both moved higher last week.




Five-Year CDS Costs On U.S. & German Bonds Vs. Normalized Yield Spread
Click here for larger image.




Ten-Year CDS Costs On U.S. & German Bonds Vs. Normalized Yield Spread
Click here for larger image.


A third line, marked in blue, was added to the charts to illustrate a fascinating phenomenon, which is how the normalized yield spread, the rate gap between German and American bonds divided by U.S. interest rates, has been widening out while CDS costs on American bonds have been rising. You might think the U.S. would have to pay more for its paper if its credit quality was deteriorating; that would be consistent with that whole risk-and-reward thing we all know and love so well.


Why is this occurring, not only in the U.S. but in Germany and Japan as well? The answer is quite simple: As investors flee risky assets, Treasuries, bunds and Japanese government bonds all become more attractive by virtue of their promise to return the nominal principal. While this is referred to often as a flight to quality, it is in reality far more a flight to the printing press. As credit spreads widen and push the total cost of capital higher for corporations, a phenomenon I discussed in May, sovereign bonds become more attractive on a relative basis and, unintentionally I am sure, draw capital away from the private sector.
Global Linkage
Not only are investors fleeing to sovereign bonds while sovereign credit risks are rising, an action lemmings might find curious, they are fleeing back to their home markets wherever and whenever possible. Let's return to our old friend, the yen carry trade, last discussed here in September 2007. As global investors flee risk and unwind yen carry trades in the process, they have to buy back borrowed yen. That pushes the option volatility on yen higher and also pushes the yen itself higher.




Yen Volatility Rose With Sovereign Credit Risk
Click here for larger image.




Yen Strengthened As Sovereign Credit Risk Rose
Click here for larger image.


The unwinding of these yen carry trades pushes the value of risky assets worldwide lower and makes sovereign bonds look even more attractive in comparison.


Will governments make good use of the money flowing to them at ever-lower interest rates, especially in an environment where risk-seeking is not the flavor of the month? On a short-term relief basis, maybe. On a long-term growth basis, almost assuredly not. The historic precedent here is clear as well: The financial calamity of the Great Depression led to transference worldwide of economic responsibilities to governments and away from markets.


The citizenry will look at Wall Street's never-ending crises and say, "Enough!" A heavy dose of regulation and restraint will look appealing. But when the crisis is over, the regulation will remain. Restated, change is coming.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 16 Sep 2008 23:52
by John Snow
We call it "too big to fail," but in reality, it is too big to succeed.
Those who keep thinking and go on to CNBC as think tankers, often repeat US is a trillion dollar economy that can not fail, but just might see occasional turbulence, all need to understand the turmoil of AIG, my collegues here are totally devastated and dee problem is AIG depressed.

The problem is that AIG became so big and insurance is very similar to Sabzi business, you cant predict how may subzi are sold, rotten and what kind.

With advent of hurricane after hurricane, even folks at Llyods London were not investing in buying packages/instruments.......

Now with every financial instrument tied to rotten real estate deals, along with spurious credit ratings doled out by various agencies the financial industry is in a very long run of turmoil, in addition high oil price is not doing any good adding insult to injury the Fed Govt has crowded the credit market and waging war...

The once big three auto makers are already standing with begging bowls but nobody is ready to throw a dime in their hat.

Stagflation is round the corner, meanwhile we have a Sarah with Lipstick to cure the rot....

Time to set sail...

Oh by the way AIG is my client :((

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 00:00
by Paul
WHat is the outlook on Goldman Sachs???? Paulson will surely not let this dreadnought go belly up.

Is it worth taking a shot at this leviathan.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 01:39
by Suraj
I dont think Goldman Sachs is in any immediate danger, but the markets are driven by sentiment and are pushing up bank bond yields, because they're aggressively pricing in the price of default, after the Feds declined to bail out Lehman. They delivered numbers better than the street's estimate, and the fall in profit was expected. Morgan Stanley is a bit worse off, with apparently greater exposure to toxic holdings. The AIG picture is scary - recent Fed rule changes allow them to use their insurance and annuity holdings to cover their mortgage losses.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 01:47
by John Snow
yes Goldman is still in the game.
AIG well I dont know about tomorrow, but I will give one hint, AIG claims litigation management doesn't what happened to $5 B last year!
I was to find that money (finders {not} keepers in this case :(( )
You can imagine what is under written, what is sold, what is litigated, what is paid. :roll:

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 02:46
by SwamyG
India, TOO, has something like FIDC. It is DICGC - Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation. It has GoI backing, created by an Act of Parliament and owned by RBI. It is Rs100,000 (1Lakh) per depositor. It is per bank. So if you have 50Lakhs sitting around :-), then tough luck you would have to put it in 51 banks.

For more info: http://www.dicgc.org.in/beta02/faqs.htm

Again the obvious thing is to spread around the risk too, along with the eggs :-). It requires a mix of Nationalized and Private banks. Based on the tolerance of risk and background financial support one can split the monies accordingly. For example if a family has couple of real estate properties, then I consider them as having more financial support than a person having 25Lakhs all tied up in few banks.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 04:13
by Pulikeshi
shaardula wrote:swami
but does the FDIC thingie cover these type of meltdowns too?

similar state as the archans in more ways than one. sleepless about the 3+1 cents that we have managed to save. i was wondering if we have to withdraw all our savings and stuff it under the pillow.

how about india? banks there safe?
Worsening Credit Markets Cause More Banks To Fail

A bit dated but listen to Sheila Bair - it is worthwhile to know how FDIC applies - limits,
joint accounts, when attached to a non-FDIC account what the limits of coverage are, etc.
Check with your bank(s) to make sure of the details.
Of course, from what was estimated (IMHO) FDIC would be able to cover the failing banks.
This also means we will pay later onlee!

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 06:06
by Suraj
US govt to bail out AIG:
AIG May Get $85 Billion U.S. Loan in Return for Majority Stake
American International Group Inc., the biggest U.S. insurer by assets, has been offered an $85 billion U.S. loan in return for an 80 percent stake in the company, according to a person familiar with the situation.

The Federal Reserve was persuaded to offer the loan because of the risk that an AIG failure would threaten the stability of world financial markets, according to the person, who declined to be identified because negotiations were confidential. Efforts to find a private-sector solution failed because the company is too big and a long-term fix was needed, the person said.

The agreement keeps New York-based AIG in business, averting a collapse that could have threatened more financial companies and cost them $180 billion in losses, according to RBC Capital Markets. AIG needed the rescue to stave off a collapse after its credit ratings were cut and shares plunged 79 percent since Sept. 11.

``There's a systemic risk if AIG isn't saved,'' Benoit de Broissia, an equity analyst at Richelieu Finance in Paris, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Richelieu has about $6.2 billion under management.

Fed spokeswoman Michelle Smith declined to comment. Peter Tulupman, a spokesman for AIG, also declined to comment. Terms of the plan were reported earlier by the New York Times.

AIG's fight to stay afloat was the latest tremor to shake the global financial industry, a day after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and Merrill Lynch & Co. sold itself to Bank of America Corp.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 06:49
by Singha
ha ha ha - nobody recalls the lectures handed out to developing nations on
free market capitalism when their own tail is on fire.

"Now see here buoy, Do as I say buoy, not as I do"

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 07:15
by sunilUpa
Kakkaji wrote:Isn't there any FDIC type bank deposit insurance in place in India?

Which banks are good for term deposits?
I read that FDIC coverage may run out anytime now! It has Insurance funds of only $58 billion, covering a deposit base of $3 Trillion. :shock:

I have spread my deposits across Indian, American, European and Hongkong based banks! Dunno whether it will do any good :(( . Are Gold Certificates any good? Any reputed dealers in masamalnd?

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 07:22
by Nayak
I wish I could take a stroll doing bhangra on the wall street now. Last time I worked there, it was awash with suited-booted-yuppie-traders strutting around with a latte in one hand and a dumb blonde on the other.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Maybe some Indian financial institution should buy up some neat property in Wall Street and fly the indian tri-color.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 08:36
by Manu
Barclays has bought US portion of Lehman Brothers for $1.75bn. Supposed to save around 10,000 jobs.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 09:06
by Sanjay M
They took the better assets. This was a better deal for them, then taking on the whole mess.

Meanwhile, the cash-rich Saudis tell Wall Street: tough luck, Sam

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/ ... 48,00.html

the sheikhs in white have no intention of becoming white knights

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 09:12
by Sanjay M
India Inc needs to position itself to offer lower-cost financial services, to exploit the opportunity arising from the financial pressures of this downturn:
Wall Street Braces for Huge Job Losses
In the Wake of Lehman's Bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch's Sale, Tens of Thousands of Jobs Expected to Be Lost

By ALICE GOMSTYN
ABC NEWS Business Unit
Sept. 16, 2008 —

On the day that two investment banks bid a historic goodbye to Wall Street, employees at one of the firms were treated to some inescapable irony: Just feet away from the Manhattan headquarters of Merrill Lynch, a luxury car exhibition had set up shop in the New York Financial Center's Winter Garden.

As they headed into work Monday morning, some Merrill employees saw their faces reflected in the windows of Rolls Royces and Jaguars.

"Can you believe it?" one Merrill employee asked. The cars, she said, are now symbols of what Wall Street used to represent: wealth and success.

Between the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers once the country's fourth-largest brokerage firm and the announcement that Merrill Lynch, the world's largest brokerage firm, was being sold to Bank of America, Wall Street recruiters this year expect to see tens of thousands of new job losses in the financial sector and cuts in compensation.

"It's going to be devastating," said Karen DelPrete, a managing director of the executive search firm Gilbert Tweed Associates, Inc. "I think it's going to displace a great number of people."

Executive search consultants say that the financial sector has already lost at least 110,000 jobs since the start of the year. Kevin Becker, an associate partner at the executive search firm Lucas Group, said his company is forecasting that at least 60,000 more financial sector jobs will be cut by the end of 2008.

The Lehman bankruptcy and the Merrill deal, he said, "clearly will have a dramatic impact."

But life at the two unwinding investment banks may be less than dramatic, at least for now.

At Merrill Lynch, a number of employees were grateful for the Bank of America deal. Some felt that the Bank of America purchase may help limit the number of layoffs the ailing investment bank might have to endure, a person familiar with the situation at Merrill said.

Merrill employees with investments in their company, he said, were also cheered by the fact that Bank of America had agreed to purchase Merrill at about $29 a share. Last Friday, at one point Merrill shares fell below $17.

Workers Face Economic Stress

"Considering where the stock was on Friday, this was a pretty good deal," he said.

At Lehman, meanwhile, the company's stock price continued to drop precipitously down to about 19 cents by the close of the New York Stock Exchange on Monday -- and employees there, said Douglas Baird, a bankruptcy law professor at the University of Chicago Law School, have little recourse to save their investments.

It will generally be difficult for shareholders and employees to sue to recover money they lost when Lehman's stock dropped, absent the kind of fraud or malfeasance seen in the collapse of the energy firm Enron, he said.

"It's not like Enron where they were hiding all kinds of transactions. Lehman was perfectly open about what it was doing," he said.

All 26,000 of Lehman's employees are likely to eventually lose their jobs, but at least some workers there seemed to be taking that in stride. One Lehman analyst who declined to be named said that he and those around him were in relatively good spirits. "Hanging around," "chatting" and engaging in "gallows humor" seemed to be the order of the day, he said.

"Obviously a company filing for bankruptcy like this is unprecedented, but people understand this is a volatile business and there's a willingness to take that risk among the people who pursue these jobs," he said. "It really just kind of goes with the territory."

He said that, for now, Lehman employees are being asked to continue coming into work unless instructed otherwise. But, he said, that hasn't stopped some people from packing up family photos and other keepsakes they had kept on their desks -- a precaution they're taking, he said, in case they're locked out of the building at some point -- and starting to look for new employment.

"There's no harm in people shopping around already," he said.

Two other Lehman employees standing outside the building today said they were optimistic about finding new jobs.

DelPrete said that at both Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers, investment bankers who have been key to putting together banking deals can expect good job prospects. While Bank of America, she said, will likely hire on Merrill's top bankers, small investment banks and growing foreign banks such as MacQuarie of Australia and the Royal Bank of Canada will also take an interest in recruiting Merrill and Lehman bankers.

Employees Look to New Jobs

Becker said that Fortune 500 companies will also try to lure top bankers to their in-house investment units.

But DelPrete and Becker agreed that support staff such as secretaries could have the hardest time finding new work.

Other lower-paid workers may also soon be hurting. DelPrete said that the restaurant and car service industries that service Lehman and Merrill Lynch will see a drop-off in business.

Becker predicted the airline industry would be affected too.

"Ultimately you have an airline industry that now depends solely on business travel," he said. With fewer business travelers, he said, the industry will suffer further.

While New York City -- home to both Merrill and Lehman's headquarters -- will see its economy impacted the most by the financial sector job losses, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said that the city would remain in relatively good shape.

The "vital signs of the city's economy remain strong -- a lot stronger than in much of the rest of the nation," he said during a press conference Monday afternoon.

"New Yorkers have gotten through the ups and downs of Wall Street before, and we will get through this one too," he said.

Whether the individual employees of Merrill Lynch and Lehman get through these downs, however, remains to be seen.

"I have a lot of colleagues who still work [at Lehman]" a former Lehman employee told ABC News. "I feel for them."

ABC News' Eileen Murphy, Bradley Blackburn and Scott Michels contributed to this report.

Copyright © 2008 ABC News Internet Ventures

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 09:20
by Singha
so it looks like the city of london part of Lehman will get thrown to the wolves - Barclay's
surely has its own outfit already in london.

imo people are going to shift out of NYC into smaller centers around the world and start
life afresh. anglosphere places like canada, aus, uk(not attractive now), HK, singapore,
dubai might absorb some. India, god forbid already has a surplus of ibankers and traders.
the more adventurous would try their luck in shanghai, seoul, taipei, madrid, moscow,
rio de janeiro, mexico city, buenos aires(said to be a hyper trendy place to hang out - london/barcelona of the south) and mumbai.

the top guys would be poached by the smaller outfits and should be just fine in NYC.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 09:52
by svinayak
September 15, 2008, 12:23 am
What a Difference a Crisis Makes


FedInto this weekend, the Federal Reserve’s next move on rates was generally expected to be up. What a difference a crisis makes.

Into August, rapidly rising oil prices and continued inflation fears coupled with a sense of some stability in credit markets had many Fed watchers expecting an eventual rise in the federal funds rate target. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher was concerned enough about the inflation outlook to continue a string of dissents at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting last month, preferring a rise in rates. Futures markets were even pricing in an increase by December.

But in a month’s time the landscape has shifted drastically. Falling oil prices and a decline in wholesale prices have eased inflation worries, while troubles around Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as this weekend’s drama in the financial sector has reawakened fears that the credit crisis will deepen.

Late Sunday, fed funds futures markets were putting about 60% odds on a quarter-percentage-point rate cut at Tuesday’s FOMC meeting, up from a 10% chance on Friday. Meanwhile, a quarter-point cut by December was fully priced into the market. Compare that to the Wall Street Journal forecasting survey conducted last weekend, where just one economist was forecasting a cut in rates by December. Six still were expecting an increase in rates by the end of the year.

Despite the increased implied probability of a rate cut this month, experts say the Fed isn’t likely to move on rates at the next meeting. While the Fed surely wouldn’t rule out any possibility, it is likely to hope that the current turmoil is a medium-term event and its long-term forecasts will remain valid.

Even Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics – the one economist in the Journal survey expecting a rate cut this year — thinks the Fed will stand pat this week. “We would not try to argue that a rate cut is imminent,” he wrote in a note Sunday night, saying the language of the statement isn’t even likely to change dramatically. “There are too many inflation bears on the FOMC for [Fed Chairman Ben] Bernanke to push in that direction just yet,” he wrote. –Phil Izzo
URL: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/09/ ... sis-makes/
September 16, 2008, 9:29 pm
Fed Invokes ‘Unusual and Exigent’ Clause — Again

In lending up to $85 billion at a hefty interest rate –- LIBOR plus 8.5 percentage points –- to insurer AIG, the Federal Reserve once again relied on its rarely used legal authority under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act to lend to “any individual, partnership or corporation” in “unusual and exigent circumstance” provided the borrower “is unable to secure adequate credit accommodations from other banking institutions.”

Until its loan to then-ailing investment bank Bear Stearns in March, the Fed hadn’t used that lending authority since the Great Depression, lending exclusively to commercial banks and other deposit-taking institutions. The relied on a different section of the Federal Reserve Act to offer loans – which weren’t actually made – to government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Where did that extraordinary clause come from? The Minneapolis Fed’s “Region” magazine offers a thumbnail history (”The History of a Powerful Paragraph”) at and points to a longer version of the story that it published in 2002:
“This isn’t simply a story about extraordinary measures taken long ago that have no meaning for today. Rather, it’s a story about the long-standing debate about the nature and purpose of Federal Reserve banks,” it says.

In a Tuesday night statement, the Fed said, “The (Federal Reserve) Board determined that, in current circumstances, a disorderly failure of AIG could add to already significant levels of financial market fragility and lead to substantially higher borrowing costs, reduced household wealth and materially weaker economic performance.” –David Wessel

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 10:00
by svinayak
Singha wrote:so it looks like the city of london part of Lehman will get thrown to the wolves - Barclay's
surely has its own outfit already in london.

imo people are going to shift out of NYC into smaller centers around the world and start
life afresh. anglosphere places like canada, aus, uk(not attractive now), HK, singapore,
dubai might absorb some. India, god forbid already has a surplus of ibankers and traders.
the more adventurous would try their luck in shanghai, seoul, taipei, madrid, moscow,
rio de janeiro, mexico city, buenos aires(said to be a hyper trendy place to hang out - london/barcelona of the south) and mumbai.

the top guys would be poached by the smaller outfits and should be just fine in NYC.

I met the family of the person who was working for Lehman Brothers in June. He said his son was moving to Mumbai to head the India office of the Lehman Brothers. I kind of figured out something was happeing.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 10:21
by bart
pandyan wrote:US Government bails out AIG with $85 billion loan
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/aig

In return government gets 79.9% stake in AIG and the right to remove senior mgmt.

Ironic considering that whenever a government in another country did such a thing, the US would cry foul an have fits of righteous rage in the name of free markets, and capitalism.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 10:24
by bart
Sanjay M wrote:India Inc needs to position itself to offer lower-cost financial services, to exploit the opportunity arising from the financial pressures of this downturn:
Wall Street Braces for Huge Job Losses
In the Wake of Lehman's Bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch's Sale, Tens of Thousands of Jobs Expected to Be Lost
Today's news is that Wipro and another finance-oriented BPO are already making a move on Lehmann's India operations.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 11:00
by Singha
NYT

Morgan Stanley Weighing Possible Merger: Report

By REUTERS
Published: September 17, 2008

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Investment bank Morgan Stanley <MS.N> is weighing whether it should remain independent or merge with a bank, give the recent turbulence in the company's share price, broadcaster CNBC reported on Wednesday.

Morgan Stanley officials were not in merger talks as of late Tuesday, CNBC said, citing unnamed people close to the matter.

"But senior people at Morgan concede that further zig-zags in the company's stock price could and possibly will force the company to change course and seek a merger partner, probably a well capitalized bank," CNBC reported on its Website.

Morgan Stanley shares closed down 10.8 percent at $28.70 on Tuesday, having fallen 46 percent so far this year.

Morgan Stanley officials in Hong Kong declined to comment on the report.

In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley's Chief Financial Officer Colm Kelleher said the No. 2 U.S. investment bank remains confident in its broker-dealer model and dismissed the need to merge with a deposit-taking bank, even as he maintained a cautious stance about the markets.

Traders in Asian said the report weighed on share markets, which pared early gains made on the U.S. government rescue of troubled insurer AIG <AIG.N>.

"The U.S. government's rescue of AIG helped the markets to avoid the worst case scenario, but the fact that only the government was willing to help indicated the gravity of U.S. credit problems," said Choi Seong-lak, an analyst at SK Securities in Seoul.

"Reports that Morgan Stanley is considering a merger with a commercial bank confirmed such fears, and market participants are now wondering if even Goldman Sachs <GS.N> is safe. Sentiment is extremely fragile.

Japan's Nikkei average <.N225> was up 1.3 percent, while MSCI's index of stocks elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region was up 0.4 percent, having been up as much as 2.9 percent earlier in the session.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 12:32
by Manu
Singha wrote:so it looks like the city of london part of Lehman will get thrown to the wolves - Barclay's
surely has its own outfit already in london.

imo people are going to shift out of NYC into smaller centers around the world and start
life afresh. anglosphere places like canada, aus, uk(not attractive now), HK, singapore,
dubai might absorb some. India, god forbid already has a surplus of ibankers and traders.
the more adventurous would try their luck in shanghai, seoul, taipei, madrid, moscow,
rio de janeiro, mexico city, buenos aires(said to be a hyper trendy place to hang out - london/barcelona of the south) and mumbai.
the top guys would be poached by the smaller outfits and should be just fine in NYC.
Singha it is worse than that. The Head of Bear Stearns Tech M&A was looking for a job for some time. Do you know where he has finally landed?

Anand Rathi, Mumbai as CEO of M&A :rotfl:

The M&A process has already passed down to the William Blairs, RW Bairds and other Mid-Market I Banks. Tough Days ahead for the Bulge Bracket. Only 88 Wall Street, 85 Broad Street and 388 Greenwich Street are still Safe.

The Merrill guys will replace at least 50% of BofA Securities Chaps. Practically the whole of the La Salle Street (Chicago) office will be replaced with Meaner, Tougher and more desperate Merrill Guys.

Lastly, Barclay is not a Global Mover & Shaker as far as Investment Banks Go.

Other than Deutsche, UBS and Credit Suisse most Big Banks are American.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 12:44
by Singha
oh wow, thanks for the insights. some of us dont know offhand how to relate
addresses like 88 wall street to the correct panda - more annotations would help.

being retail banks can citibank and HSBC be considered to be safe and above the
storm clouds? I thought these were the two biggest banks by holding of deposits
in the world.

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 12:51
by Singha
interesting blog here. should be full of good dirt going fwd.

http://epicureandealmaker.blogspot.com/ ... treet.html

Tell them straight: I'm sorry, you're being fired because we have to reduce our costs in the face of declining business. It is no reflection on you, your talents, or your future prospects. It is simply a business decision we have decided to take. I am sure you will do well in your future career, and I wish you the best of luck.

Look them in the eye. Be honest (or as honest as the inevitable Human Resources weasel in the room will let you be). Shake their hand, if they offer it. And try to remember through your discomfort and embarrassment that it is them who is getting fired, not you. Like I said, be a man. Do the right thing.

That is the right way to do it. That is why I find this report leaking out of Goldman Sachs to be so despicable. Who the ****** do they think they're kidding? Not the analysts getting canned, surely. Not those analysts' potential future employers. And certainly not anyone on Wall Street or among their investors who has not suffered a frontal lobotomy recently.

There is no form of public humiliation excruciating enough, no corporal punishment which causes lasting enough damage to serve as adequate remedy for such low, cowardly, pusillanimous behavior as this. Whoever thought up this stupid, cowardly, insulting plan should be taken to the steps of the New York Stock Exchange, disemboweled, and hung on a stick to dry, along with the senior executives who approved it and the Managing Directors who executed it. Recently laid-off investment bankers below the rank of Vice President should be issued a blanket invitation to come throw rocks and piss on their desiccated remains. Wives and mistresses of the miscreants should have their Henri Bendel store charge cards confiscated and their heads shaved, like captured collaborators in WWII. Their children should be forced to attend state schools and work for the Peace Corps. :rotfl:

Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted: 17 Sep 2008 12:55
by Singha