Morbid Rubbernecking: New Korean War?

[Singha]

Unlike tsp cheen which enjoys a overt and cordial diplomatic relationship, the noko cheen optics is different. ..do their political and military leaders routinely visit, what kind of weapons and civilian tech does china sell them? Has kim visited peking ever? What does he think of being a chinese lapdog ?

What i am thinking is noko might be more independent than tsp wrt china ... and may deviate off script with no warning...major loss of face for peking as it undermines its play of managing noko for a price on sino us trade front.

[UlanBatori]

Tillerson appears to have walked into a trap by hyperventilating that US will "wait as long as it takes" as long as NoKo conducts no more tests. The Carl Vinson will be growing barnacles. Now NoKo will shut down its loudspeakers for 3 more years until Trump-2 or HiC-2 takes over, then start again. Basically eliminated the pre-emptive strike option. If it was Iraq it wouldn't matter, but NoKo has Big Eleven looking over it. A sneak attack would trigger a massive retaliation. Why did Tillerson make such a booboo?

That little statement is a HUGE comedown from "The Time 4 Strategic Patience Eeej Over Onlee!" Eleven wins again?

[vinod]

maybe this is a test of china on how well they are able to control their munna. But for what purpose?

maybe they have crossed a capability threshold? but any bum is a bum. and china was upset about THAAD. what gives?

maybe USA wants to deploy nuclear missiles in South Korea, hence all this drama?

confused...

This whole drama is not against NoKo but China. US is deploying missiles shield and stocking up in order to throttle China later. US can respond faster than China can react. The whole misdirection of aircraft carrier etc. was to gauge their reactions. Ignore Trump's praise, its irrelevant.. another misdirection at best.
I guess China is well aware and not sure what to do. Unless they ramp up their rhetoric and threaten US directly, they are having US missiles and shield and other mil assets on their door step. Not sure Kim will back down on Nuclear or missiles. The risk is will he start a war?
China has massively been caught off-guard on this. May be China can engineer a coup in NoKo. Kim's days are numbered, if this doesn't settle soon.

[Lalmohan]

actually this is all a distraction to keep people looking the other direction to where comey-ji is getting to with flynn, page, manafort, giuliani, kushner and...

[UlanBatori]

Meanwhile, the aerospace enterprise Makes America Great Again

Next sale: To Pakistan. Maybe to India. Sri Lanka. Bahrain. Dubai. Rwanda. Congo. Nigeria.

[UlanBatori]

From all this I HAVE to conclude that Kim J Do is a SeeEyeAh Agint. Look what he has done for Trump.

[vinod]

How can India use this opportunity?
Can we cancel the leaves of all personnel quietly and start a build up on pak and china border?
If fire crackers are opened and things gets noisy on NoKo front, can we solve pak and Kashmir problem for good? May be get the pak gens to give away something quickly and quietly, so that they don't lose their cosy investments and cushy lives. How can we make the threat to them real amongst all this?

[UlanBatori]

If there is signifcant bissing contest, both Zee and Eleven are going to suffer significant reductions in capability. I would expect aid to TSP to become low priority - for both Eleven and Zee This would increase pressure on India to help prevent collapse in Afghanistan, which in turn may require open roads across POK/Balwaristan to the Afghan/ Pakhtoonistan border plus the collapse of the Islamagood/Pakjab junta.

OTOH, there may be a rush down the Karakoram Hwy to launch gunboats from Gwadar to threaten Gelf oil lanes. Or to send planes to protect Eleven ships in Gelf. Unpredictable.

What happens in a suddenly-Dong-less dunia? One option is that new regime in Pyongyang Crater is a Frontlyin' Al-Lie, supported by both Zee and 11 like the Original Frontlyin' Al-Lie, instigated to threaten Russia. US Naval base and sub-hunter base in the open waters south of Vladivostok. Sakhalin Island becomes contested rubble. Japan dhoti-shivering, maybe trying to recover from serious damage to cities.

Best bet for India is to start a huge Waste Management and Reconstruction enterprise like Halliburton with lots of outsourcing opporunities free of US H1B concerns. Huge markets opening up, in Syria, Libya, Iraq and now So/No Korea. Maybe even Japan. Threats to US and Chinese mainlands are IMO minimal unless there is a REALLY serious f-up by Dupleecity and Beijing.

Eleven will be trying hard to get the US into a BOG (Boots On Ground) situation, where there can be only one ending. Zee will be trying hardest to avoid that if there is any sense at all in the NSC. There MAY be a Yoo-Enn PKF opportunity if things get very bad.

Most probable outcome: Read Tillerson statement about how US wants to help develop NoKo. That's what it's all about: Trump Towers Pyongyang. Watch the fireworks arc over Sea of Japan.

[Lalmohan]

the big problem is if dear leader starts nuking then dear orange leader has to return nukes
if the japanese are seriously hit, they may just unwrap the little buddha they might have been hiding away and send it over
the brave jarnails of pindi might think its green djinn time and send their bums over the LOC
al saud will cash in its hasina-atim-bum
and then the israeli's will feel left out...etc

all a bit too unstable for anyone's liking...

[UlanBatori]

Japanese SOF operation is most likely, IMO, to spike the missiles.
US NEST teams are tasked with removing nukes unless PeeAllSee Karakoram Nuke Trucking LLC gets there first.
Either way, if this particular bissing contest ends without permanent removal of nukes and missiles, it is a HUGE loss for DOL. Question is whether that can be done without BOG (NEST/SOF are not acknowledged).

[Lalmohan]

all scenarios are bad...

[chola]

Come on! Someone drop something on someone else!

[Lalmohan]

donnie will drop a few more moabs before we are done here...
mostly on empty deserts and mountains
but thats ok...

[Karthik S]

Come on! Someone drop something on someone else!

So many warmongering kafirs here. But seriously, just as cheen used cuban mijjile crisis in 62, we need to do the same and hopefully, I can trek K2 sometime this fall.

[chola]

Come on! Someone drop something on someone else!

So many warmongering kafirs here. But seriously, just as cheen used cuban mijjile crisis in 62, we need to do the same and hopefully, I can trek K2 sometime this fall.

I was hoping for fireworks in the SCS but this would do as well.

I really hope we have something is place for such an eventuality. Punch them in the back of their f:cking heads if they are so arrogant to turn their back on us just because Unkil is around!

[UlanBatori]

I was hoping for fireworks in the SCS but this would do as well.

Very vely vely intelesting. This is the other reason I started this thread. How artificial is the NoKo excitement? Note that SCS is not that far from where the Carrier Group actually was located. . Did you see how that just passed by with no remark?
Next up: What is the reason for PeeAllSee khulji about SoKo paying $1B for a useless bunch of matchsticks? Whatever else they are, they are not advertised as offensive weapons. The RADAR - which sits on the ground - is cited as intruding intro privacy of the pakistans on Chinese C919. but this makes little sense either: A few AWACS flying over SoKo can see much better into PeeAllSee.

So what if the real reason for all this is excitement in the SCS?

[UlanBatori]

Ramana esp but all MilForum types:

Pls look at the mijjile launch picture in the video here. Very interesting perspective. Is this standard for tube launch, say from a ship? First a small blast, then a huge rocket motor starts up, with a significant sideward component. But I've never seen it for a large, long pencil-like Dongless mijjile.

[ArjunPandit]

I was hoping for fireworks in the SCS but this would do as well.

Very vely vely intelesting. This is the other reason I started this thread. How artificial is the NoKo excitement? Note that SCS is not that far from where the Carrier Group actually was located. . Did you see how that just passed by with no remark?
Next up: What is the reason for PeeAllSee khulji about SoKo paying $1B for a useless bunch of matchsticks? Whatever else they are, they are not advertised as offensive weapons. The RADAR - which sits on the ground - is cited as intruding intro privacy of the pakistans on Chinese C919. but this makes little sense either: A few AWACS flying over SoKo can see much better into PeeAllSee.

So what if the real reason for all this is excitement in the SCS?

You are overthinking..DT doesnt think that much

[Lalmohan]

^^^^ sshhh! you will be horsewhipped by the powers that be!! do not kveshchun the new devata!

[Prem]

Another NOKO Miss-ile test failed .

[Rudradev]

I think this is the long game.

Every mijjile test that NoKo fails, Chhota Mota Kim has 20-30 top jernails and weapons scientists executed as punishment (some by shooting them with anti-aircraft guns, apparently).

All the US has to do is make sure the tests keep failing, through high-tech and low-tech sabotage. At the rate of a test every week NoKo will lose some 100 strategically important individuals a month. Soon enough their expertise pool won't even have guys with the know-how to change the tires on a BTR-60.

[UlanBatori]

Why do u say it failed?

and flew for about 30 to 40 kilometers before landing in the water off the Korean Peninsula

That's enough to give the kimono-shivers to the Samurai.
IOW, it left the launch pad. Success, IMO. Point is, Kim JDo has done and shown the middle finger, right at 100th din.
NoKo is showing off the launch video.

IMO this is war, not Sanctions. There will be at least a token jhapad. Besides, His Master's Comrade's Voice has spoken: The Uruguayan Ambassador, the only voice of reason on the UNSC, has called it "disgraceful". That means, only PeeAllSee will veto a war resolution.

[ramana]

Ramana esp but all MilForum types:

Pls look at the mijjile launch picture in the video here. Very interesting perspective. Is this standard for tube launch, say from a ship? First a small blast, then a huge rocket motor starts up, with a significant sideward component. But I've never seen it for a large, long pencil-like Dongless mijjile.

Scud type means liquid fueled missile.
Failed two.minutes into flight could mean stage separation issue.
During the 1990s many "axis of evil' countries worked on two stage Scud rocket engine based missiles. So after the solid fuel missile failures, NoKo might have gone back to old designs.
The small blast is the igniter lighting off the main stage engine. The sidewalk thrust is nozzle damage or one of the control rod damaged. Could be electrical connector snapped.
All such bad things happen.

[chanakyaa]

Meanwhile, the aerospace enterprise Makes America Great Again

Next sale: To Pakistan. Maybe to India. Sri Lanka. Bahrain. Dubai. Rwanda. Congo. Nigeria.

Haha..you either buy from us or we will force you to buy from us and demand a payment. Aha....Now the urgent impeachment of SoKo president is making sense, and, yes, the magical exploding of Samsung phones/batteries. All coming together and making sense. Poor SoKo.

[UlanBatori]

NOW I am convinced that this Chubby Jr is a wacko. He has turned victory into defeat, hain? Or the puppeteers in Beijing are determined to have a war now rather than later.

Tillerson had already conceded defeat by saying that the US would "wait as long as it took" to convince NoKo **NOT TO TESTAGAIN**.

All Chubby had to do was to go YAWNNN..... HU? ME? TEST? and go about his business. The US carrier group would have sat offshore burning $20M / day (how much does it cost to have 5000 ppl and 55 aircraft fed and serviced per day so far from home?) until they eventually got tired and left, looking sheepish.

And instead he goes and tests! Right away. I cannot see the point of doing this.

[Philip]

Live North Korea 'tests ballistic missile' amid reports Pyongyang stating war 'imminent'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04 ... g-stating/

Well,some reports say that his "Ding-Dong" failed again; yet another piece of mischief by Uncle Sam and cyberwar? Anyway,for the umpteenth time NoKo has said that "war is imminent",crying "wolf" ad nauseum.However.war happens,like sh*t,when you least expect it! This time round there is a difference and smell of cordite in the air. There is no Q that the Donald wants to humiliate the rising grandson of Kim IL Sung,by bloodying his nose militarily.The demand that NoKo's nukes and N-capability be dismantled is a tough act to enforce. I'm sure the Pakis are watching apprehensively, as the Donald has declared that he wants to intervene in Indo-Pak imbroglio.

The Q that no-one has an answer to is what will our Young "Un" do when pushed completely into the corner? I suspect that a conventional border war will break out first before it threatens to escalate into a full-fledged war with nuclear "implications". Marshal Kim,"Outstanding Leader" of NoKo isn't a fool or madman as many in the West would like to protray him.He is a very cunning Commie and will have quite a few tricks up his sleeve. Just watch this space.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04 ... g-stating/

Barney Henderson, new york
29 APRIL 2017 • 8:02AM
North Korea test-fires ballistic missile
Trump says North Korea 'disrespected the wishes of China'
Reports Pyongyang saying war 'imminent'
North Korea: attempts to get rid of nuclear weapons 'wild dream'
North Korea could develop a missile capable of reaching the US warns Homeland Security Secretary

North Korea test-fired a ballistic missile in the early hours of Saturday morning, reports in South Korea said, amid rising military tensions with the US.

The missile, launched from a region north of the capital, Pyongyang, appeared to have blown up a few seconds into flight, South Korea's Yonhap news agency said.
US officials said the missile did not leave North Korean territory and was probably a medium-range missile known as a KN-17.

This undated picture released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on April 26, 2017 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un

It was the second failed test of a ballistic missile this month and came amid a flurry of rhetoric from North Korea warning of "imminent" war against the US.

"North Korea fired an unidentified missile from a site in the vicinity of Bukchang in Pyeongannam-do (South Pyeongan Province) early this morning," Yonhap reported, quoting a statement issued by South Korea's military. "It is estimated to have failed."

Donald Trump, the US president, said that North Korea "disrespected the wishes of China" with the missile test.
North Korea disrespected the wishes of China & its highly respected President when it launched, though unsuccessfully, a missile today. Bad!
4:56 AM - 29 Apr 2017

On Friday, Rex Tillerson, the US secretary of state, warned that failure to curb North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes could lead to "catastrophic consequences".

He called for a greater enforcement of UN sanctions against North Korea and requested the help of the rest of the world in pressuring North Korea to step back from its military threats.

North Korea's military arsenal
China said it was not only up to Beijing to solve the North Korean problem.

"The key to solving the nuclear issue on the peninsula does not lie in the hands of the Chinese side," Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister said.

This image made from video of a still image broadcast in a news bulletin by North Korea's KRT on Wednesday, April 26, 2017, shows what was said to be a "Combined Fire Demonstration" held to celebrate the 85th anniversary of the North Korean army, in Wonsan, North Korea

North Korea's deputy UN ambassador responded by stating US efforts to get rid of his country's nuclear weapons through military threats and sanctions were "a wild dream".

Mr Trump told Reuters in an interview on Thursday that a "major, major conflict" with North Korea was possible over its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.

An undated photograph released by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on 26 April 2017 shows the combined fire demonstration of the services of the Korean People's Army in celebration of its 85th founding anniversary, at an undisclosed location in North Korea CREDIT: KCNA
The top US military commander in the Pacific warned earlier this week that North Korea could strike American soil.

"I don't share your confidence that North Korea is not going to attack either South Korea, or Japan, or the United States ... once they have the capability," Admiral Harry Harris, who heads the US Pacific Command, told Congress.

He was defending the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile defence system by the US in South Korea.

The move was “in response to North Korea’s advancing nuclear and missile threat”, a US military statement said, amid concerns that Pyongyang was planning its sixth nuclear test since 2006.

A military drill marking the 85th anniversary of the establishment of the Korean People's Army (KPA) is seen in this handout photo by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency
A military drill marking the 85th anniversary of the establishment of the Korean People's Army (KPA) is seen in this handout photo by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency CREDIT: KCNA

UN Security Council united in demanding North Korea surrenders nuclear weapons
France's U.N. ambassador says the U.N. Security Council is "mobilized" and unanimous on the need to denuclearise North Korea.

Francois Delattre said at the United Nations after North Korea's apparently failed missile launch Saturday that while there were "nuances" on policy to be worked out among council members, there is unanimity on the need for North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

North Korea fired the missile hours after the Security Council held a ministerial meeting on Pyongyang's escalating weapons program. North Korean officials boycotted the meeting, which was chaired by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

Delattre says the council must be "very firm" implementing sanctions, adopting new ones if necessary and denouncing North Korea's human rights record.

[Singha]

Ramana esp but all MilForum types:

Pls look at the mijjile launch picture in the video here. Very interesting perspective. Is this standard for tube launch, say from a ship? First a small blast, then a huge rocket motor starts up, with a significant sideward component. But I've never seen it for a large, long pencil-like Dongless mijjile.

which launch is this? its a classical solid fuel ICBM/SLBM launch using gas generator to eject the missile before the 1st stage motor fires.
its how our cansister A5 works. SLBMs tend to go off at a slight angle as the sub is moving slowly when firing is done...so the resultant vector is not 90' vertical

the missile teams in Noko must be dhoti shivering more than soko now....if dear leader loses his vast patience its off to the gulag or firing squad for all of them - if they are lucky - if unlucky old chinese methods like wiping out 9 generations could be employed. any "expat" ukrainians or russians helping the cause would be looking to pack and make a sneaky exit asap back to ukrainia/rodina

onlee diff I see comparing to A5/Topol etc is that they ignite quickly..right as the missiles tail clears the tube...but here it is several missile lengths up before firing.....this kind of resembles lighter missiles like the S300 family....the gas generator is probably "borrowed" from a heavier ICBM and used as is, so it rises way up before 1st stage motor ignites?



vs

[UlanBatori]

Long time back I have heard that the Polaris mijjiles are launched from sub-surface with compressed air, then rise to the surface without ignition, then blast off.
Re: NoKo mijjile failures, I suspect that things must be much worse now within the launch community there, since even Chubby must have figured out that 4 failures in a row, after a fairly steady string of successes, can mean only two things:
a) People in his organization have been compromised (unlikely at this point)
b) The enemy is able to kill his launches either on launch by sending false self-destruct/steering codes, or by blasting them out of the sky soon after.

In either case, his missile program is essentially over. This 4th test seemed like 100% act of desperation, using a missile from his inventory rather than a new one from a development program. Now over to his nuke test program... A bit harder to sabotage that externally without creating a crater and fallout. A MOAB maybe, but now to deliver that?

[Singha]

Kim probably dreams of this...nice series of M51 tests culminating in the successful test launch from a water tank.
I think the cold launch is not strictly needed for land based ICBMs but its too tempting to just reuse the SLBM tech with sealed tube so many including India do so. it is claimed the naval SA-n-6 (S300) system pumps cold water into the VLS tubes prior to launch...

[UlanBatori]

More on NoKo launch:
The site is very interesting:
1. Bukchang (39.5524754,126.0207808) is famous for the Bukchang Gulag i.e., Concentration Camp. Must be to allow the engineers to concentrate better. I suspect that the US military identified that name for the launch site just to get ppl like me to go look it up and see the words "concentration camp". Piskops.
2. The area is surrounded by hills, and way inland. And MORE TO THE Northern coast side (i.e., Yellow Sea).
3. To reach Sea of Japan coast it had to travel some 120mi. + 30 mi into the sea is a good 150 miles. I don't see why that is called a failed launch. If they had overflown Japan that would be viewed far worse by the kimono-shiverers, hain? So calling it a launch failure is also piskops. 150 mile range conveys the message nicely that Seoul is toast, and Japan coast is toast.
4. Launching from Bukchang if true, may also convey that it was selected at random from inventory to minimize opportunity for sabotage.
5. Also conveys that missile silos are located next to concentration camp so any MOABs etc will end the misery of those in those wonderful establishments. Like the Americans newly lodged there.

OTOH, if a medium-range mijjile from inventory "failed" that is indeed bad news for those keeping them in inventory, i.e., Ghazni, Ghauri etc. How to spread the good word on social media that Paki mijjiles are duds?

[UlanBatori]

Wow! Those frogistani videos are nice. Did you notice that the little pointy stick extends out of the blunt nose AFTER launch? That must be a spike to reduce blunt-body drag. Neat.

[UlanBatori]

How do u parse the following, buried in the report on the UNSC tamasha chaired by Tillerson? (Interesting scheme, the main aggressive party chairing the UNSC meeting.... while the innocent victims are absent)

China said it was not only up to Beijing to solve the North Korean problem.
"The key to solving the nuclear issue on the peninsula does not lie in the hands of the Chinese side," Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister said.

Which suggests that PeeAllSee is talking about SoKo/US nukes located in SoKo. Isn't this part of the "war never ended" problem given above? Why should PeeAllSee rein in fiendly neighbol if that leaves US nukes in SoKo, a few miles from Chinese border, and now accompanied by THAAD? Now we see what THAAD is protecting: it's not So Ko cities, it is the nukes placed in SoKo.

[UlanBatori]

Meanwhile, Le Tub de Champagne Amphibioose visits Japan. Trying to surrender to the North Koreans no doubt. What the heck is an "amphibious" carrier? It runs up on land at the first hint of a storm or a submarine?

[prasannasimha]

This is the exact prelude that was done prior to Gulf war ! Kim will be attacked and China will have to displace the puppet,
Remember this was the 3 axis of evil of Bush which was unfinished

[Singha]

Wow! Those frogistani videos are nice. Did you notice that the little pointy stick extends out of the blunt nose AFTER launch? That must be a spike to reduce blunt-body drag. Neat.

K4 has the aerospike and aeroplate too as does all slbms with ogival roundy nose.

[Singha]

Mistral would evac french workers from soko if needed. It is if no use vs noko...

[UlanBatori]

Aha! Hence the helicopters. Makes sense. Smart, these Clouseaux. Probably a load of white flags too. Ready for evacuations and surrenders first, while others are busy readying sticks and knives and rocks.

Seriously, that is a VERY scary move.

Wonder if IN/AI/IAF have any plans. No land evac routes available. Have to get them out to Malaysia/Singapore on first leg. Taiwan may become a non-viable entity with closed airspace in short order plus orders to shoot any boats at sight. How many desis are in SoKo, any estimates?

[Gagan]

US has deployed THAAD in SoKo, using this crisis as the reason.
Those missiles are now going to be deployed there forever.

They are meant to provide boost phase intercept to Mainly Chinese missiles headed for the US, rather than protect SoKo.

If NoKo is attacking SoKo, they will use SRBMs, short ranged missiles, best tackled by Patriot or Iron Dome type systems, not a High Altitude system like the THAAD

[Singha]

There mustbe few 1000 indian workers in soko incl one brf member

[Suresh S]

These NOKO missile tests are not failures. I think north Koreans are destroying these missiles midway so as not to invite US retaliation .But the mafia kingdom do not need any excuse to attack anyone so they might as well fire the full distance.