2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[nvishal]

SC can strike down a law if it violates the constitution.

If punjab can prove it violates, they will take the bait. But they know they can't prove so they'll probably refuse to go to SC.

In the mean time, the law might be passed at state level by individual states and that'll make the protests pointless.

[uddu]

Also if the BJP want, they could create a show of force with pro reform farmers coming out and participating in march like the Pro-CAA march. This for sure will be large and huge and will be a good for nation in the long run. A golden opportunity handed over by Supreme court. i think BJP must not miss it to completely corner the opposition.

[V_Raman]

BJP cannot do what it did with CAA here. This is with Sikhs...

[chetak]

The Supreme Court on Monday indicated that it will stay the contentious farm laws if the government is not willing to keep it in abeyance till it reaches consensus with the protesting farmers (The Hindu).
So looks like Central Govt will also find a way to weasel out of the situation . GoI can say that it did try to bring in reforms, but it was scuttled by the judiciary.

This is not a govt that is going to back down. There are many "farmers" unions who have not been heard and most of them approve of what the govt has done. They will now also have their day in the sun.

the punjabis have purposely and undemocratically blanked them all out by suppressing their voices and not allowing them to be represented among the "farmers" unions "talking" to the govt.

scuttling of these laws bodes ill for all concerned and if such a solution is precipitated, it will be a lose-lose situation with possible repercussions in other unrelated areas.

also, many of the comments made by "responsible pillars of democracy" are are unwarranted and it serves to vitiate the atmosphere.

It is a needles and wilful assertion of supremacy saying that someone is "disappointed". suo moto intervention has often been weaponized and used in the past when there was no real need or the situation itself did not warrant it.

if there was a situation that begged for such an intervention, this was it as indeed shaheenbagh also was.

gratuitous comments should have been avoided because this is, after all, first and foremost, a process of conciliation through consultation and mediation.

the govt has approached the judiciary because they hope that it will take a dispassionate and non partisan view.

let us see what view is taken on the selective and pampered procurement of grains at MSP, almost 100% from one state when such procurement should have been legally done from all states by equally distributing the largesse and affording equal opportunity to farmers in all states to take part in the PDS requirement procurement cycle.

[chetak]

BJP cannot do what it did with CAA here. This is with Sikhs...

there will be no show of force or humiliation of farmers from any state.

there are elections to win

Re:CAA, which is done and dusted


The Modi government on Friday announced that the historic Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) has come into force from January 10, 2020.

[vhirani]

In Kutch, where I own a farm and most of my cousin are farmers. We grow a variety of cash crops, pulses, fruits and vegetables. Kutch being raid deficient, does not have the luxury to grow rice and very limited wheat growing only. One of my first cousin family grows Israeli golden dates (cloned) and other fruits. His best harvest export to 5 start client goes sells for Rs1000 a kilo to 30-40 rupees in the local market for the least graded. His best dragon fruit sells for rs150 per fruit for export. He owns 200 acres (joints owned by family members, limit of farmland owner is approx 50 acres locally per farmer measured in guntas.

My other cousin sister only owns 1 acre and makes about 80,000 to 1 lakh profit annual growing onions and other vegetables. 3 to 4 times a years. But is really hard work. My other cousin own a 12 acre Kesar mango farms and also does quite well.

And many others in my patel and other farming communities are doing well. We have had almost zero suicides in Kutch for the past 10 years. After the 2001 earth quake, huge changes have come to Kutch. A lot of Israeli tech and knowledge , like drought stressing knowledge was brought in.

The Gujarat government offers 50 to 75% subsidies in buying drip pipes which are critical due to limited ground water. And electricity subsidies only at night in 4 hours slots. So many farmer have timer pumps.

Most farmers don't sell through Mandi even before the farm laws for MSP crops like castor and mustard. Most deals are made directly with retailers which is technically against AMPC rules. For example, castor seed agro industries and pharmaceutical make direct dealt with groups of farmers (too much hassle dealing with individual farmers). So hundreds of deals are made with retailers of all kinds including local retails shops in Bhuj. The only deal I know that is made with Ambani is supply of fresh veg to reliance stores in Bhuj.

It was common for Modi when he was CM to request fruit samples from Kutch farmers when he made trips to Asian countries to promote them.

There as been too much discussion about Punjab, Haryana so will leave that out.

Even the left leaning press has good thing to say about Kutch farming, below
https://www.news18.com/news/india/farme ... 00006.html

See YouTube video on the my cousin's Barhi (golden) date farm. Every date is the same as the trees are cloned. https://youtu.be/gEQ-LYTeL5Y

[ArjunPandit]

The Modi government on Friday announced that the historic Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) has come into force from January 10, 2020.

[ArjunPandit]

jokes aside, Indian govt has been found to be on a better footing than US govt against the machinations of deep states. Last week of violence is a good demonstrator. Keep no doubt that if it were possible CAA agitators would have done much more than they did, in states where BJP is not in power. Thanks to our police and security apparatus

[Prem Kumar]

LiveLaw Twitter account is reporting thusly regarding Farm Laws:

"CJI : We are proposing to set up a committee. We also propose to stay the implementation of the laws. If anyone wants to argue, argue."

This Govt has been abdicating its responsibility by telling the farmers: "let the SC decide". Well, welcome "Judicial overreach"

First the CAA mollycoddling that led to riots. Now this. Absolute cowardice by the Govt. If they cannot govern, why are they in power?

[SRajesh]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 210460.cms
Referring the bill to a an expert panel
Is it a good thing or bad??
Surprise/Surprise Justice Lodha is going to head it!! if MeLords get everyone to agree!!
Most of the agri-esperts are already in favour of the bill
What will this panel suggest
And we have experts like Yadav/Dreze/Sen/ yada-yada who have never tilled their own backside let alone any farm-land who would mess things up!!

[Haresh]

One of my first cousin family grows Israeli golden dates (cloned) and other fruits

A few years ago I visited Punjab, while there I had the good fortune to visit the Indo-Israel Centre of Agricultural Excellence in Punjab.

I was provided with an Letter of Introduction from some friends in London, so I was given a tour by the Director.
The entire thing was fascinating, the drip feed irrigation and fertilizer spreading through the drip feed, fruit waxing, the shading.
I took my cousin along who farms 3-4 acres. He purchased a whole load of fruit trees, with the intention of setting up a fruit orchard.
They provide free training courses, accommodation and food. The majority of the farmers are small land owners.

Indian farmers, need to change their farming methods, which are medieval, and also diversify.

When I came back to the UK we did a talk at a gurudwara about it. Which was very well received.

This is some more information.
Pg 11 has locations in India

https://mfa.gov.il/MFA/mashav/Publicati ... roject.pdf

[Tanaji]

The government has itself proposed the committee option to the farmers during talks. It was rejected by the farmers under their repeal mantra.

The aim of the government is to de-escalate. Right now things are in a deadlock with one side having a maximalist position of repeal or nothing. The government would have realised its pointless talking further. Furthermore the farmers-traders have backed themselves to a corner as well as anything less than repeal is loss of face. Especially given their “Delhi fateh karenge” “modi should die” “Hindu women should be xxxx” type of comments.

So this committee thing might be an option to get some breathing space.

[chetak]

Aadhar linked with Phone number will be used for coronavirus Vaccine and reminder

Kagaz to Chaiye

[ArjunPandit]

Aadhar linked with Phone number will be used for coronavirus Vaccine and reminder

Kagaz to Chaiye

sir you are assuming that some people want the vaccine...they dont want..traveling in cabs..i occassionally ask these things...and some are "very concerned" about the vaccine under 1 pretext or another...afterall some people were licking fruits or spitting on nurses to spread this and normalizing this on tiktok..i am sure you remember ..what was one of the first super spreader event around in delhi..

[chetak]

sir you are assuming that some people want the vaccine...they dont want..traveling in cabs..i occassionally ask these things...and some are "very concerned" about the vaccine under 1 pretext or another...afterall some people were licking fruits or spitting on nurses to spread this and normalizing this on tiktok..i am sure you remember ..what was one of the first super spreader event around in delhi..

ArjunPandit ji

anytime there is a govt program, it is one specific set of guys /gals/kids in tow, crowding out everyone else to grab what they can get free.

for three four days, it's only these guys who will monopolize the queues and access.

despite everything else, I expect that a majority will seize the opportunity.

fatwa or no fatwa, the madrasa chaaps always know which side of the double roti has the makkan, no

हमाम में सब नंगे हैं हुज़ूर

[vijayk]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 210460.cms
Referring the bill to a an expert panel
Is it a good thing or bad??
Surprise/Surprise Justice Lodha is going to head it!! if MeLords get everyone to agree!!
Most of the agri-esperts are already in favour of the bill
What will this panel suggest
And we have experts like Yadav/Dreze/Sen/ yada-yada who have never tilled their own backside let alone any farm-land who would mess things up!!

why is he putting scums like Prashant Bhushan in it?

[chetak]

@vijayk ji

why is he putting scums like Prashant Bhushan in it?

Prashant Bhushan= =yogendra yadav= =naxals= =congis= =BIF

[chetak]

x posted from the US thread

jaishankar will not let this opportunity go unexploited

xi jinping will have cause to remember trumpwa for a very long time.

this is a major and a most unexpected blow that will cause the hans to squeal like a stuck pig

other countries will also take their cue from this


Outgoing Trump Administration gives Biggest Jolt to China by removing decades long acceptance to 'One-China' Status quo . US Sec Pompeo Orders lifting of all self-imposed restrictions with Taiwan by US Govt giving it Free Country status

Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship


Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

PRESS STATEMENT

MICHAEL R. POMPEO, SECRETARY OF STATE

JANUARY 9, 2021

Taiwan is a vibrant democracy and reliable partner of the United States, and yet for several decades the State Department has created complex internal restrictions to regulate our diplomats, service members, and other officials’ interactions with their Taiwanese counterparts. The United States government took these actions unilaterally, in an attempt to appease the Communist regime in Beijing. No more.

Today I am announcing that I am lifting all of these self-imposed restrictions. Executive branch agencies should consider all “contact guidelines” regarding relations with Taiwan previously issued by the Department of State under authorities delegated to the Secretary of State to be null and void.

Additionally, any and all sections of the Foreign Affairs Manual or Foreign Affairs Handbook that convey authorities or otherwise purport to regulate executive branch engagement with Taiwan via any entity other than the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) are also hereby voided. The executive branch‘s relations with Taiwan are to be handled by the non-profit AIT, as stipulated in the Taiwan Relations Act.

The United States government maintains relationships with unofficial partners around the world, and Taiwan is no exception. Our two democracies share common values of individual freedom, the rule of law, and a respect for human dignity. Today’s statement recognizes that the U.S.-Taiwan relationship need not, and should not, be shackled by self-imposed restrictions of our permanent bureaucracy

.

[ArjunPandit]

despite everything else, I expect that a majority will seize the opportunity.

valid point. Esp the majority that was making noise on SM about CAA. It would be a coup if ME arab nations get the medicine and locals here refuse. It might be a good opportunity for us to prioritize some for them to show our historical ties and special relationship. Arab royals have a tendency to remember such favors for a very long time.

[ArjunPandit]

xposting.
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7828&p=2478478#p2478478
Chain of events since 2015
1. Supposed manipulation of info on SM companies lets DT come into power (read cambridge analytica and other similar)
2. SM companies amplify DT's outreach and his messages (irrespective of veracity) including messages on US election fraud
3. DT supporters did what they did in Capitol hill
4. DT is banned/ostracised from SM
Is there any accountability of Social media sites? To me it appears a classic case of dumping a speculative trade gone bad.
BTW many question India on blocking internet and social media in Kashmir and during CAA without even facing a fraction of what India faces and without a contextual understanding of Indian culture and historical background of problems.

[Sachin]

The Modi government on Friday announced that the historic Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) has come into force from January 10, 2020.

I am yet to see any news which states that the Rules for the Citizens Amendment Act has now been formulated and circulated. It is the Rules which defines the operational aspects of any act. The last I heard was that Amit Shah wanted the rules out after the Covid pandemic is over. Without the Rules, CAA is going to be more of a political gimmick.

why is he putting scums like Prashant Bhushan in it?

Prashant Bhushan= =yogendra yadav= =naxals= =congis= =BIF

If SC decides who are the participants in the expert committee, then it is going to be another farce. Such a committee may not have any rights to dictate terms with the Govt. Now if the committee's mandate is to help SC take a decision; put a stay on the laws or allow it to remain - then this also becomes a tactic to delay the final decision . Don't know if all the theatrics today was once again to skip taking any concrete decision.

My understanding; Supreme Court can only annul/repeal an act if some provisions violates the fundamental rights as mentioned in the Constitution. So far even the 'farmer broker' lawyers have not been able to prove that the new laws violate any fundamental rights. That is why they also were not very keen on approaching SC in the first place.

And when all these are happening BJP can also ask state governments in their control to either implement the current act as a State Act, or introduce a new Act in similar lines in their respective states. One or two harvest seasons; with farmers across India (except Punjab) getting a good money will make more people see sense and make the government's position stronger. 1-2 incidents in which Punjab's clout on this MSP and APMC stuff is broken, every one will become more reasonable.

[Ambar]

despite everything else, I expect that a majority will seize the opportunity.

valid point. Esp the majority that was making noise on SM about CAA. It would be a coup if ME arab nations get the medicine and locals here refuse. It might be a good opportunity for us to prioritize some for them to show our historical ties and special relationship. Arab royals have a tendency to remember such favors for a very long time.

ME countries will be the first ones to impose "No vaccine, no entry" rule, the gulf sheikhdoms are no nonsense countries which will block all shanthidooths from entering Gulf countries for haj or employment , i expect European countries too doing the same eventually. In desh, i hope schools and colleges make vaccinations mandatory to sit in exams or enroll for classes, students who refuse should remain in virtual classrooms until they get themselves vaccinated.

[Tanaji]

ME countries will be the first ones to impose "No vaccine, no entry" rule, the gulf sheikhdoms are no nonsense countries which will block all shanthidooths from entering Gulf countries for haj or employment , i expect European countries too doing the same eventually. In desh, i hope schools and colleges make vaccinations mandatory to sit in exams or enroll for classes, students who refuse should remain in virtual classrooms until they get themselves vaccinated.

But.. but .. then what would happen of kaagaz nahi dikhayenge which is a must to get vaccine??

[Ambar]

My understanding; Supreme Court can only annul/repeal an act if some provisions violates the fundamental rights as mentioned in the Constitution. So far even the 'farmer broker' lawyers have not been able to prove that the new laws violate any fundamental rights. That is why they also were not very keen on approaching SC in the first place.

And when all these are happening BJP can also ask state governments in their control to either implement the current act as a State Act, or introduce a new Act in similar lines in their respective states. One or two harvest seasons; with farmers across India (except Punjab) getting a good money will make more people see sense and make the government's position stronger. 1-2 incidents in which Punjab's clout on this MSP and APMC stuff is broken, every one will become more reasonable.

The govt boxed itself into a corner by going to the supreme court. Supreme court will put a stay on an act passed by the parliament and this will negatively effect all states except 2 that have issues with the new laws. If this govt is done shooting itself in the foot atleast they should now have the common sense to cut the MSP from PJ and divert it to other states, let Amarinder Singh supplement the loss of MSP from PJ's coffers .

[Tanaji]

The government did not go to Supreme Court, PILs had already been filed with SC even before this. So the matter was in Supreme Court regardless

[Ambar]

ME countries will be the first ones to impose "No vaccine, no entry" rule, the gulf sheikhdoms are no nonsense countries which will block all shanthidooths from entering Gulf countries for haj or employment , i expect European countries too doing the same eventually. In desh, i hope schools and colleges make vaccinations mandatory to sit in exams or enroll for classes, students who refuse should remain in virtual classrooms until they get themselves vaccinated.

But.. but .. then what would happen of kaagaz nahi dikhayenge which is a must to get vaccine??

They have all the kaagaz when they queue up outside banks to get the free dole from PDBT, so if their ummah leaders tell them they wont be allowed to enter without vaccination then kaagaz will magically appear. The 20 something wealthy woke commies too will go get themselves jabbed else they can forget about that foreign university admission or the next winter trip to Switzerland.

[chetak]

It would be a coup if ME arab nations get the medicine and locals here refuse.

ME countries will be the first ones to impose "No vaccine, no entry" rule, the gulf sheikhdoms are no nonsense countries which will block all shanthidooths from entering Gulf countries for haj or employment , i expect European countries too doing the same eventually. In desh, i hope schools and colleges make vaccinations mandatory to sit in exams or enroll for classes, students who refuse should remain in virtual classrooms until they get themselves vaccinated.

some ME mullahs have already issued fatwas saying that the pig fat stabilizers in the vaccines have undergone so much of processing that they no longer can be considered haram

so they have declared the vaccines as perfectly halal.

some of these mullahs are so crookedly flexible that they could easily hide behind a spiral staircase...

I also think that during these tough times where the importance of their jehadi community has been severely compromised globally after the paris teacher killing, they are all painfully aware that no halal version of the vaccine will be forthcoming soon, if at all.

so miraculously, the haram pig fat stabilized vaccine becomes halal by the magic of fatwa.

[vhirani]

Indian farmers, need to change their farming methods, which are medieval, and also diversify.

When I came back to the UK we did a talk at a gurudwara about it. Which was very well received.

This is some more information.
Pg 11 has locations in India

https://mfa.gov.il/MFA/mashav/Publicati ... roject.pdf[/quote]

Thanks, Enjoyed reading the Publication. Punjab has tremendous scope in diversifying into all these crops, fruits,veg, pulses as they have major population centres nearby. The issue is how to disincentivise the farmers to grow the excess wheat / grain we don't need and incentives then to use modern farming techniques to grow want we need.

[Y I Patel]

The Supreme Court comments on staying the implementation of the agricultural laws and the negative comments on the government’s inability to end the agitation are a shocking breach of judicial impartiality.

The court appears to be governing from the bench in a very blatant way. I hope the government asserts its right to govern forcefully. This example of overreach by the august judicial body is unacceptable

[chetak]

The Supreme Court comments on staying the implementation of the agricultural laws and the negative comments on the government’s inability to end the agitation are a shocking breach of judicial impartiality.

The court appears to be governing from the bench in a very blatant way. I hope the government asserts its right to govern forcefully. This example of overreach by the august judicial body is unacceptable

we all need to see this: only in India

Press Trust of India@PTI_News

There is not a single petition before us which says that these farm laws are beneficial to farmers: SC

12:27 PM · Jan 11, 2021

is there a single petition before any court in the world to say that covid vaccines are beneficial to humans

[chetak]

Live Law@LiveLawIndia · 9h

Adv AP Singh, for intervenor, says that they have trust in the govt.

CJI : Whether you have trust in the govt is immaterial. We are the Supreme Court and we will do what we have to do.

[vijayk]

^^ This looks pretty insane!

[chetak]

^^ This looks pretty insane!

no sir, that's standard government issue terminator talk.

[Sachin]

so miraculously, the haram pig fat stabilized vaccine becomes halal by the magic of fatwa.

To some how hide the stupidity of Mullahs, there would be reports of some idiotic 'Hindu organization' bringing stuff about the cows .

I hope the government asserts its right to govern forcefully. This example of overreach by the august judicial body is unacceptable

Farm laws: Centre files affidavit in SC
Farm laws result of two decades of deliberations, Centre tells Supreme Court in affidavit

So looks the battle lines are now being drawn. Comments like "no PIL has come from groups who are in favour of the farm laws" are just diminishing the prestige of the judiciary. Who is going to approach a police station or a court; when he is perfectly fine with his life or in agreement with the law of the land? .

[chetak]

Did you know PM Manmohan Singh cannot read Hindi? All his speeches were written in Urdu and his first TV speech needed three days of practice.



Things you did not know about Manmohan Singh

[Y I Patel]

This will become an extremely dangerous precedent if the legislative branch does not stand up for its prerogative. Every law will become subject to a popularity test by the judiciary. Any law in jeopardy of repeal due to vociferous objections from a small group with vested interests.

[vijayk]

Admin Note: Watch your language, dont treat this forum as a foul-language repartee device.

[ramana]

vhirani thanks for the ground level feedback.
ramana

[ramana]

This will become an extremely dangerous precedent if the legislative branch does not stand up for its prerogative. Every law will become subject to a popularity test by the judiciary. Any law in jeopardy of repeal due to vociferous objections from a small group with vested interests.

NaMo is taking a lot of poison for India.

[chetak]

this is an unexpected twist.


If true, these "farmers" are really seasoned players