Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 31 May 2022 19:24

European thinking is fast becoming a contradiction in terms. Except Sameer Saran who threw some smooth punches, the three euro-idiots are totally appalling, and totally like the Europeans who rule from Brussels now. La la land people with no sense of reality but full entitlement. But OK, that was a Davos, where the rich and the elite get together for incest - and this year - for mutual reassurance.

kit · Post by **kit** » 31 May 2022 19:27

NRao wrote:
chetak wrote:
And.

The Europeans, in their infinite wisdom, are paying $30 more per barrel.

.

the ursula lady wants to keep buying so Russia doesn't profit .. dont ask !

kit · Post by **kit** » 31 May 2022 19:32

https://www.intellinews.com/russia-s-ne ... rce=russia

Looking at the same reserves in May and subtracting only the public part of the debt and there is a surplus of $187bn – more than twice as much as is needed to preserve the stability of the currency, leaving the government in a comfortable cash positive position.

Even taking into account an expected 15% contraction in the size of the Russian economy in 2022, that will still leave the Russian government with healthy surplus and a gross deficit – including public and private debt – of some 14% of GDP.

These calculations do not take into account the circa $100bn of revenues the government has earned as a windfall from the super-high commodity prices, and especial oil exports, in the first quarter. However, at the same time reserves have fallen by $43.8bn since the start of the war rather than this surplus accumulating as fresh reserves.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 31 May 2022 19:33

Europe wants to one's house on fire to avoid enriching future burglars. Whats wrong with that?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 31 May 2022 19:54

Cyrano wrote:European thinking is fast becoming a contradiction in terms. Except Sameer Saran who threw some smooth punches, the three euro-idiots are totally appalling, and totally like the Europeans who rule from Brussels now. La la land people with no sense of reality but full entitlement. But OK, that was a Davos, where the rich and the elite get together for incest - and this year - for mutual reassurance.

Saran ji is very experienced in such bouts.

However, very disappointed that he did not take a swing at the 1990 "deal" between Russia and Baker, and the Clinton back stab. Well, for some other time.

kit wrote:
NRao wrote: And.

The Europeans, in their infinite wisdom, are paying $30 more per barrel.
the ursula lady wants to keep buying so Russia doesn't profit .. dont ask !

I sincerely hope India collects that $30 diff and invests in research for a military engine.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 31 May 2022 20:31

Early XMas gift, news clip from The Guardian:

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 31 May 2022 20:35

Well, UK is welcome to pledge some gold with RBI to get some food and cash in a G2G deal to tide over these difficult times. And return some stolen treasures from the British Museum as a good will gesture.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 31 May 2022 21:15

The cheeni were/are greatly dismayed at the extreme hostility of the Indian public to them and their culture. This was highlighted to them after galwan, when they had drunk deeply of the commi-congi cool aid and were fully confident that the congis and commies would smooth over everything with the aam aadmi using their controlled press, lootyens presstitute media and "intellectuals" and mercenary traitors like coupta and the treacherous, and treasonous mount street mao.

the cheeni desperately need India and it's resources to be a inherent part of the OBOR/CPEC ecosystem, in fact it is a lynchpin in their scheme of things and paki was/is/always will be a mere parasitic sideshow

sri sri pappuji maharaj is still openly batting for the cheeni, as he so maliciously did even at oxford. That MOU he has signed with xi has a lot to do with his deviant behaviour and calumnious conduct and desperate bid to overthrow the Modi govt by any means available. Xi now knows, beyond all shadow of doubt, that even with the mafia famiglia in full control, the Indians will never allow the cheeni to enter India in the way that the cheeni have been planning to enter for many decades now. They have been eyeing gwadar since before India became independence and the britshits missed it because their strategists were fully focussed on mother russia and her two century old desire to access the warm water ports of the Indian ocean then and later because of the need to access/control the "wells of power"

The Russian Empire, drilled her first modern oil well in 1846 and crude was discovered in the gulf in 1938. Crude has been known for over 6000 years now in the form of pitch by various civilizations. The historic need and determined search by the russian empire for warm water ports was done from times even before peter the great because russia wanted to increase it's international trade, ensure uninterrupted projection of power and especially control sea trade all year round for it's own safety.

Broadly speaking, the amerikis want India, as a pliant client state, on their side as indeed do the cheeni. The cheenis, for now, already have the russkis on their side, and for what it's worth, India will not take sides. The russkis will never see eye to eye with the amerikis so the best option is for the amerikis to cripple the russkis and for the cheeni to cripple India so that options are neutralized and both seem to be in broad agreement for such scorched earth tactics.

Neither of the two want the russkis or India to rise as alternate poles and reset the global order.

That is why we can never trust the amerikis.

Modi has turned out to be THE black swan for the EU, the amerikis, and the cheeni. India is now just a bit too strong and a tad too independent to be pushed around by the goras or the cheenis.

As one savvy guy on twitter says: “There’s the realization that India is far too big and far too important to be slotted into these convenient definitions of, ‘Either you’re with us or you’re against us’.”

xi is punch drunk, as is biden, from grappling with their internal issues that are hurting their economies and their global outreach is much attenuated in terms of power projection and in diplomatic heft. Both have acquired well deserved bad reputations internationally for being rapacious as well as untrustworthy allies. The saudis and their biradari have openly gone against and defied the biden administration, EU and NATO have been left confused, resentful and apprehensive, the same is echoed by taiwan too.

the amerikis and the EU have seen the russkis strong pushback, as indeed the cheeni have seen India's unexpected pushback in ladakh. World order and stability is in disarray with the root causes being traced back directly to biden and xi for their opportunistic and selfish acts of omission and commission

The fact that India has risen as a superpower in agricultural production, dairy and allied services has only now begun to register on the abrahamics and particularly on the jehadis.

India and Russia are decades old historic friends and comrades, with both Modi and Putin openly acknowledging their countrys' long standing relationship much to the chagrin of the EU, the amerikis, and the cheeni.

Diplomatically speaking, the slippery sardar was obsequious, and timid, while needlessly conceding strategic space in almost every situation, whereas, Modi is lionhearted, and willing to stand his ground while remaining focussed on making the best deal he can for India.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 31 May 2022 22:50

+108. Couldn't be put any better Chetak ji!

I believe that India+Russia will be a good third leg for the global structure to stabilize, a 2 legged one will be inherently unstable and will topple - we've seen that already.

If France gets into woke abuse rehab, smelled the coffee and does a rapprochement with India and Russia, the trio can hold off US, UK and China from starting any trouble for the most part. I hope that happens in the next few years. Macron is not even a demi-Chirac to think like a statesman, he is a Rothschild junior financier turned President with enough skeletons in his cupboard to put Azov neonastys to shame. It can only happen after Macron is gone. Sadly!

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 31 May 2022 23:02

One hell of a way to upset your own financial global frameworks and rules.

US Rivals Shunning Dollar Lifts Yuan-Ruble Trading by 1,067%

* Volumes between Russian, Chinese currencies near $4 billion
* Nations seek to protect their economies from U.S. sanctions
Bloomberg News
May 30, 2022, 4:40 PM CDT

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 31 May 2022 23:26

Meanwhile:

https://twitter.com/RealAlexRubi/status ... 7556071430

DHS is 'concerned' over Nazis returning after fighting in Ukraine. I examine two Americans now fighting Russia, one a veteran of various street brawls against leftists and the other a lunatic that murdered a couple in Florida & tortured women in Donbas

IF you have time to spare follow the thread (not worth it). Posting only as a data point - that the US can import the Ukrainian lunatic system into the US.

bala · Post by **bala** » 31 May 2022 23:37

What we are witnessing is jostling amongst the #1 US, #2 China with each of them trying their best to gain leverage in the World. India #3 and Russia #4 are at the receiving end in their games. I am leaving out the entire EU since they are contentious bunch and there are fissures amongst themselves like the Frogs vs the f-Nazis Germany vs UK Colonialist Britshits.

#1 is at odds with #4 and #2 with #3. #1 is cozying up with #3 to take on #2 (quad) and similarly #2 and #3 are in a pact together to take on #1. Like the NBA playoffs, it is possible for any of the numbering to go wrong over time, since one can leapfrog the other and finesse the ordering.

Currently #4 has taken a firm stance against #1 and Euro is at receiving end. #2 is benefiting from the fracas immensely. From this tussle, a lot of things are going to be looked at anew. Global financials (including petro dollar), high tech, alliances and much more. Saudi A wants to be part of BRICS. Barter trade will level up the PPP GDP vs Nominal GDP rigmarole. Producers vs consumers will be shaken out thoroughly with some opting to be natively producer to lessen the consumer burden, e.g., #3 is trying to snatch away #2's production capacity.

CalvinH · Post by **CalvinH** » 01 Jun 2022 00:10

China and Russian alliance is for survival. Now for Russia and future for China. US knows that a violent showdown with China is imminent and want to neutralize/weaken Russia so that Chinese are alone in the future fight. Russia becoming weak will open up CAS to US influence too and will help US encircle China further.

India is allowed to play slightly neutral only because US needs us in this fight and to counter China. What doesn't make sense is why China keep acting aggressively with India. May be they believe that India is basically against China and any concessions to India will turn out to be useless/wasted in the real scheme of things. Similar to our belief about Pakistan.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 01 Jun 2022 00:58

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/sta ... 9314835463

There are now four Turkish banks accepting Russian MIR cards.

DenizBank, Turkish Iş Bankası, Ziraat Bankası and Vakifbank.

Another breach within NATO

kit · Post by **kit** » 01 Jun 2022 01:35

NRao wrote:https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/sta ... 9314835463

There are now four Turkish banks accepting Russian MIR cards.

DenizBank, Turkish Iş Bankası, Ziraat Bankası and Vakifbank.
Another breach within NATO

OT , socially the Turks seem well connected with the Russians and Belarusians ( by that i mean interpersonal relations within the populace).. Russia has more influence inside Turkey than is given credit

bala · Post by **bala** » 01 Jun 2022 05:18

First cargo ship sails from Mariupol since fall to Russia. A cargo ship carrying metal has left Mariupol and headed to Russia, a pro-Moscow separatist leader said on Tuesday, the first time a vessel had sailed from the Ukrainian port since it fell to Russian forces. "Today 2,500 tonnes of sheet metal rolls left the port of Mariupol, the ship is heading to Rostov," Denis Pushilin, the pro-Kremlin leader in Donetsk, wrote on Telegram. This transport hub is very important for Donbas. This is the largest port on the Sea of Azov and the only one where all types of cargo can be handled, including in winter," he said. The port of Mariupol was Ukraine's second-busiest, after Odessa on the Black Sea, before Russia launched its offensive on February 24. Russia said last week the port was reopening after the military demined an area of 1.5 million square metres in the port, with sappers working in the docks and on ships moored there. After weeks of devastating siege that left the city in ruins, Russian forces earlier this month took full control of Mariupol when Ukrainian forces holding out inside the vast Azovstal steelworks surrendered.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 01 Jun 2022 09:33

I just became aware that while both Saudi Arabia and Russia produce roughly 11 million barrels of oil per day, the Saudi output is from just 2000 oil wells but the Russian output is from 40,000 wells!! Those 40,000 wells operate in an area of permafrost and even at the best of times 40,000 wells are far, far more maintenance and equipment intensive than 2000 wells. Now that oil field equipment and supplies have been cut off by sanctions, these wells will begin to lose output. How soon, nobody can say. But one can be certain that 2 years from now Russian production will be lower than today even if there are markets to sell to, unless equipment and supplies for the oil industry are again available. Also all non Russian senior vice presidents of Rosneft have left due to sanctions. Most of these were ex BP or ex Exxon Mobil and were key in maintaining relationships with equipment vendors and other expertise.

Must understand similar highlights about Russian gas production and Gazprom.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 01 Jun 2022 10:03

ldev wrote:I just became aware that while both Saudi Arabia and Russia produce roughly 11 million barrels of oil per day, the Saudi output is from just 2000 oil wells but the Russian output is from 40,000 wells!! Those 40,000 wells operate in an area of permafrost and even at the best of times 40,000 wells are far, far more maintenance and equipment intensive than 2000 wells. Now that oil field equipment and supplies have been cut off by sanctions, these wells will begin to lose output. How soon, nobody can say. But one can be certain that 2 years from now Russian production will be lower than today even if there are markets to sell to, unless equipment and supplies for the oil industry are again available. Also all non Russian senior vice presidents of Rosneft have left due to sanctions. Most of these were ex BP or ex Exxon Mobil and were key in maintaining relationships with equipment vendors and other expertise.

Must understand similar highlights about Russian gas production and Gazprom.

Russia's break even cost to extract oil is about $40 / barrel. The lowest is Saudi at about $17, followed by other Middle East suppliers. The reason for Russia's higher price is terrain and distance (from shipping points). However it is a lower extraction cost than Venezuela or China.
In Communist times, the USSR did not have Western technology and learnt to be largely independent (like Iran). Current western collaborations were more for getting outside capital (when Russia was cash strapped in the 90s). The Russian managers are more technically capable than the local managers in the Middle East.

US has traditionally worked with Saudi to keep prices low (but not so low that US shale production will be affected) because low prices suit the Saudis. However, that compact seems to have broken and Saudi is cooperating with Russia to limit output and keep prices high.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 01 Jun 2022 18:43

ldev wrote:I just became aware that while both Saudi Arabia and Russia produce roughly 11 million barrels of oil per day, the Saudi output is from just 2000 oil wells but the Russian output is from 40,000 wells!! Those 40,000 wells operate in an area of permafrost and even at the best of times 40,000 wells are far, far more maintenance and equipment intensive than 2000 wells. Now that oil field equipment and supplies have been cut off by sanctions, these wells will begin to lose output. How soon, nobody can say. But one can be certain that 2 years from now Russian production will be lower than today even if there are markets to sell to, unless equipment and supplies for the oil industry are again available. Also all non Russian senior vice presidents of Rosneft have left due to sanctions. Most of these were ex BP or ex Exxon Mobil and were key in maintaining relationships with equipment vendors and other expertise.

Must understand similar highlights about Russian gas production and Gazprom.

Statistics is very, very dangerous game.

As an example, the West (EU) that has promised to cut some oil (not gas) will be more dependent on US oil or Venezuelan oil - neither of which exists today. That supply chain has to be built up - not to talk about the sanctions that will need to be lifted on Venezuela, sanctions that the US applied a few years ago and had India cut her oil from the same nation.

One of the biggest reasons why Eu did not decide on cutting gas supplies from Russia is March, 2022 :: Why the U.S. Can’t Quickly Wean Europe From Russian Gas - there are not enough terminals nor LNG ships to haul that gas. And, of course, Uncle Joe would have to allow Texans to get that gas out - the very gas Uncle Joe capped or stopped when he and Kamala hit the White House.

I learnt a new word: "autarky" :: "an economic system of self-sufficiency and limited trade. A country is said to be in a complete state of autarky if it has a closed economy, which means that it does not engage in international trade with any other country."

There are no nations that are totally independent, but, Russia comes as close to one it can get. US too is another. But, the list of nations that are at the other end of the spectrum are pretty much all in Europe. So, in 2 years Russian oil production may decline, but the cost for energy in EU will go up substantially to push a nice chunk of their population into poverty.

Finally, fully expect a massive shift in world order. There will be a cost the US pays for telling India to cut ties with Iran and Venezuela and then making a deal with Venezuela to tag Russia. I am not sure, but would not be surprised if the deal India is making with Russia is because of this. Besides this is a great chance for India to push "EU" off the chart - and why not. And, Russians are a very hardy people - they will take it on the chin. Doubt EU can. I expect some political turmoil in the near future. One of them: favoring Ukrainian refugees over those form Afghanistan. Once that top is blown it is a matter of time that the order is reordered. We already witnessed it in Brazil refusing to sanction RU, and South Africa blaming the conflict on NATO. BRICS wants to expand (although I think this is a Chinese move to dilute Indian influence within the BRICS)

With more cheap oil, Indian eco could also gallop faster: $5 trillion by 2025 (say)

A lot of things can happen: some good, some bad.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 02 Jun 2022 00:04

I want to say that we are seeing a new pole forming in the world - India+Russia.

USA and China are already together IMO. Taiwan is the irritation which can continue to be that.

EU subservient to USA+China and India+Russia

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Jun 2022 03:53

Filed under believe it or not:

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/sta ... 3721805832

So it turns out that India is buying Russian oil and a significant percentage of that is then being sold at an additional premium back to the EU.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Jun 2022 04:15

Based on a NYT article

https://twitter.com/AngieSkys/status/15 ... 1816037376

US fears seizing Russian assets.
Confiscating the funds could destroy the country's reputation with investors the New York times reports. Officials in Biden's administration believe the seizure of assets would be illegal and could discourage other countries from relying on US $$

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 02 Jun 2022 08:17

NRao wrote:Filed under believe it or not:

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/sta ... 3721805832

So it turns out that India is buying Russian oil and a significant percentage of that is then being sold at an additional premium back to the EU.

I am sure that the merchant class of Europe understands the irony of the situation.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 02 Jun 2022 12:27

As someone said earlier, every day a new provocation:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uk/uks-n ... ar-AAXXPge

I wonder if they really will risk running the blockade.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 Jun 2022 16:49

Italy imports more Russian oil despite impending embargo

MILAN — Even as the European Union decided to reduce Russian crude oil imports by 90% by the end of the year, Italy has become the only country in Europe to increase them, an unintended consequence of EU sanctions against Russia.

Meant to punish Russia for invading Ukraine, the EU oil embargo is now putting at risk one of Italy’s largest refineries, located in Sicily, which would deal an economic blow to the depressed region’s economy.

Italy agreed with its EU partners to cut Russian crude imports by 2023, a move that Premier Mario Draghi called “a complete success,’’ that ”just a couple of days ago wouldn’t have been believable.”

But Rome also has to deal with the fate of the refinery in Sicily owned by Russia’s Lukoil. As a result of previous sanctions against Russia, ISAB Srl has paradoxically gone from processing 15% of Russian crude to 100%.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 Jun 2022 16:52

Saudi, OPEC may make up for Russian oil output loss as Biden visit looms

DUBAI/LONDON, June 2 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members may boost oil output to offset a drop in Russian production, a move that could take some pressure off surging global inflation and pave the way for an ice-breaking visit to Riyadh by U.S. President Joe Biden.

Two OPEC+ sources said the group was working on making up for a drop in Russian oil output as Russia's production has fallen by about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) as a result of Western sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 Jun 2022 21:39

NRao wrote:https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/sta ... 9314835463

There are now four Turkish banks accepting Russian MIR cards.

DenizBank, Turkish Iş Bankası, Ziraat Bankası and Vakifbank.
Another breach within NATO

Sir,
if you visit Ankara or Istanbul airports then you can see the large plackards hanging in front of currency exchange counters saying "We accept Rubles".

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Jun 2022 21:54

Kati wrote: Sir,
if you visit Ankara or Istanbul airports then you can see the large plackards hanging in front of currency exchange counters saying "We accept Rubles".

Not surprised.

Ruble is THE currency today - arguably the only one(?) currency backed by $75 trillion (est) natural resources in the Russian ground!!! Next closest nation with natural resources: US with $45 trillion.

The Bank of Russia had started intervening a 10+ days ago, the Ruble was getting too strong at 58.00. That they did is not important. The question was where were they getting to trade such large amounts to influence markets- the Western sanctions had a "leak". BoR was supposed to be in hand cuffs.

Nothing adds up, yet it adds up. There is a clam within this chaos.

Like supposedly India is buying Russian oil and selling at a higher price to the EU, these Turks are buying Rubles and marking it up substantially to sell them in the black to the Westerners, where there is an extreme demand for them. At times it is amazing to see capitalists try to ambush others only to get ambushed - and all of it is simple supply-demand at the core.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 02 Jun 2022 22:20

X-Post from the Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy thread...

Hari Nair wrote:John Saab, I do believe we are perhaps clutching at straws?

I said it before and I am saying it again in very plain language...
This forum needs to be neutral, objective and in tune with realistic assessments, which unfortunately due to certain posts - is NOT meeting that objective.

The Ukr "offensive" in Kherson is just a flash in the pan.

Kindly reconcile with the Austrian assessment I had posted a few minutes earlier, with a rebuttal if possible?

John will certainly reply, but my two cents (FWIW)....

Two opposing views here...one pro-American and the other pro-Russian. This struggle is prevalent in most threads on BRF. But the diverging views have taken a renewed prominence and light - in this thread - due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The pro-American crowd (I will not paint all of them, but most) believe in Pax Americana i.e. international rules based order. America must continue to remain the pre-eminent military and economic superpower. The alternative is not appealing. No one wants China to take the No 1 spot. Russia is doubtful due to her demographic condition. So it is vital that the US-backed Ukraine prevails in this conflict. At the least, ensure the conflict ends up in a stalemate with a severely economic & militarily weakened Russia. That scenario greatly helps American interests not just in the region, but also in the Indo-Pacific. A weakened Russia will be unable to provide any significant military assistance to India. When that occurs, India will but naturally gravitate towards the US.

India is a huge market - both in civilian and military spheres. An experienced helicopter test pilot like yourself is fully aware of this large market that exists within the country. To tap into this and hold the largest market share is a great boon for the American MIC. As India bankrolled a large number of Russian military programs since the 60s, the goal now is to have India invest in the American MIC. The European MIC is akin to a single French Fry, when compared to the American MIC which is an all-you-can-eat buffet. But once you get into the American ecosystem, then it is virtually impossible to get out of it. Apple fans will understand the reference

The pro-American crowd lives largely in the North American hemisphere and thus enjoy all the benefits that come with living there. And it is a great life, if one has achieved the American dream. And most South Asians are hard working and studious folk, so the American dream becomes obtainable and sustainable as well. And they want the same for India. The disconnect lies with Indian citizens not wanting a slice of that American dream because of the negatives that come with it. A sizeable percentage of the younger generation in India today realize that they don't need to be molded or wedded to the American dream and can create sustainability (and a good quality of living) all on their own. This is a source of deep discord with the pro-American crowd, as that diminishes the value of Pax Americana. Self-Reliant-India are three bad words in their dictionary and must be avoided at all costs.

Then you have the pro-Russian crowd and this is the old guard. For them...Russia must not lose this conflict, as it would not augur well for India geopolitically. After getting out of the embrace of the Russian bear, it is suicidal for India to ride on top of the American bull. And most of India's military is Russian in origin and needs to be sustained and maintained due to a belligerent China. Switching overnight is just not possible.

In addition to this, Alliance with America is actually Reliance upon America. Nations like Japan, Germany, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia and the UK are good examples of this. None of these countries have significant MICs of their own and they rely largely on the American MIC for their own national security. But to be fair none of these countries can afford to have MICs like the US. The only outlier in this equation is France. Here is a country that is stubbornly independent (militarily) and wields that independence to great effect. The Indo-French military cooperation is another bone of contention for the pro-American crown on BRF, but that is a topic not relevant to this thread. To the pro-Russian group, it is vital to have an equilibrium i.e. there has to be a counter balance to Pax Americana. Ying vs Yang, Good vs Evil (depending on one's definition of what is good and what is evil) or whatever else one believes.

So this is the struggle in this thread. Both sides want an outcome that is favourable for them. But, IMVHO, neither side will win. In this thread, you will witness this perpetual struggle for relevance. If you find something that is egregious then by all means refute it Sir. It will be impossible for anyone to be neutral or objective in this conflict. Regardless of however asinine the claims may be and occasionally some posters would like to snipe at others, as long as the discussion is civil it should be fine. Otherwise, the forum and her readers will end up with a skewed view.

=================================

In between this geopolitical struggle for relevance - in the 21st century - lies India. Over the decades, we have read many analogies about India. A sleeping giant, an elephant that never wakes up, etc. Regardless of whatever term one prefers to describe India, she has become resurgent and multi-polar. And when I use the term resurgence, I am specifically referring to the Hindu. He/She has now awakened in India and is questioning everything that has been done to him/her over the past 7+ decades since independence. This is causing deep discomfort/takleef to the liberals (both in India and in the west). However, this is a topic not relevant to this thread.

While there are a number of systemic issues that plague the country, the new India is slowly and surely realizing that India can build her own MIC without endless reliance upon any country. And multi-polar alignment allows India to partner with many nations (some of which can't stand the sight of the other), but still maintain her independence. Multipolar alignment is another issue that causes deep frustration with the pro-American crowd on BRF. But again, this is a topic not relevant to this thread.

We have a long way (decades) to reach self reliance, but if America can nip that in the bud now...then they don't have to deal with the problem later. It is for this reason that the eminent US geopolitical analyst - Ashley Tellis - famously remarked that India should be cautious in investing further in the Tejas program and purchase the most widely exported fourth generation Western fighter out there i.e. the Lockheed Martin F-16. The official excuse is always China, but the end goal is always the sustainment of Pax Americana.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Jun 2022 22:21

Two Russian immigrants, so take it for what it is worth (I have found them to be reliable).

It has some interesting info on Russian oil (and what is India actually doing), British maritime insurance vs. Asian maritime insurance, etc

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 03 Jun 2022 01:31

X-Post from the Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy thread...

Baikul wrote:My first point is that no source is reliable. You parse the data and you make the call. However, and this is my second point, I try never to forget that I’m in Team India, not Team Russia or Team USA. Hence I don’t really care who wins or loses (despite having affection for Russia, as a a someone who grew up in the 80s, and the US, where I lived and worked for a long time) except how it impacts India.

Well said Sirjee.

The folks cheering for Ukraine's demise must realize that our An-32s are being refurbished from there. Not happening now. The four follow-on Talwar Class frigates feature marine powerplants that come from Ukraine. Also not happening.

The folks cheering for Russia's demise must realize that most of our weaponry comes from there. It is vital that India's military - in the short term - remains strong and be able to stand up against China.

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/153 ... VnZbp9t-Qg ---> Talk to the effect that America courts India more for strategic rather than geo-economic purposes only serves to reinforce the suspicion that Washington ultimately seeks a G-2 with Beijing while utilizing India as a bargaining chip.

What Saurav Jha Sir says above in fluent English, I shall now translate into street English ---> "....Washington ultimately seeks a G-2 with Beijing while utilizing India as a condom...just like they did with Pakistan."

Spare us all this lecture ---> "This is a strategic alliance of the world's largest democracy and the world's oldest democracy."

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 03 Jun 2022 01:54

Spare us all this lecture ---> "This is a strategic alliance of the world's largest democracy and the world's oldest democracy."

The reason such Mreeki statements used to rankle me is that it becomes plainly clear that they think we are so stupid to fall for it. These days less because we've started doing it as well in subtler ways that's more in our own Indian style.

Hope Americans too, in time, will choose "enlightened moderation" when talking about India and grow out of the current __________ _______________

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 03 Jun 2022 02:14

Actually I do care who wins in this war. If Ukr loses or Russia loses, the impact is obviously not the same on India's military preparedness and beyond.

Plus even a stalemate will validate and legitimise some dangerous and hitherto unimaginable modus operandii that India _may_ one day be subjected to such stuff merely because it's non-aligned and wants to chart it's own course. And we are unfortunately not as resource independent as Russia, far from it.

So if Russia wins, it won't just be Ukr losing but a lot more losing, including some kind of global Shaheen bagh clique.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 03 Jun 2022 10:27

Rakesh wrote:X-Post from the Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy thread...

Baikul wrote:My first point is that no source is reliable. You parse the data and you make the call. However, and this is my second point, I try never to forget that I’m in Team India, not Team Russia or Team USA. Hence I don’t really care who wins or loses (despite having affection for Russia, as a a someone who grew up in the 80s, and the US, where I lived and worked for a long time) except how it impacts India.
Well said Sirjee.

The folks cheering for Ukraine's demise must realize …

The folks cheering for Russia's demise must realize…

…
Spare us all this lecture ---> "This is a strategic alliance of the world's largest democracy and the world's oldest democracy."

Thank you saar. The question is why do some expat Indians cheer so passionately for Russia or the US? They are all loyal to India, of that there’s no doubt. On this very forum we have living example of this.

However? I’ll elaborate a little more because this is something I’ve lived.

I think the answer lies in one word - gratitude. We Indians work hard, are very capable, and do brilliantly abroad. We make it to the top (or close) and consequentially we’re grateful to the society we live in. It’s in our nature to be respectful of local customs, and be loyal to the new society in which we live, eg Indians in the US/ Europe/ Russia.

However, the innate Indian ability to make a positive contribution and pay back to our new society has a deep flaw. We don’t understand that the same society that’s brilliant within can be a selfish, narrow minded, illiberal institution abroad.

Thus having lived there, I believe that the USA is a great, liberal (comparatively), merit rewarding, honest (comparatively), tolerant and respectful society for domestic peoples. HOWEVER that doesn’t mean that it cannot be a fascist, war mongering, murderous institution abroad. Have you seen their international record?

And while I can’t speak for others, that’s the dichotomy I took a long time to understand. In short - jo USA mein accha, woh bahaar gaandu ho sakta hai.

*Compare that to a nation to our west - they are by nature, upbringing and (dare I say by religion) taught to be resentful. Hence wherever they go they are below mediocre, and also create trouble - riots, grooming underage girls etc.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 04 Jun 2022 00:44

The dollar's dominance is shrinking — and it's the krona and the won that are replacing it in reserves, the IMF says

The dollar has reigned supreme as the world's global reserve for decades — but that story has been changing, according to economists at the International Monetary Fund.

In fact, the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves dipped below 59% in the final quarter of last year, continuing a downtrend that has been going on for two decades, an IMF blog post on Wednesday said.

"The dollar has not become more dominant. It has not even maintained the dominance of prior years," economists Serkan Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen, and Chima Simpson-Bell wrote.

The shift away from the dollar is being driven by central banks' interest in non-traditional reserves, including the Swedish krona, the South Korean won, and the Australian and Canadian dollars. The currencies of smaller economies that traditionally haven't been in reserve holdings account for three-quarters of the shift away from dollars, IMF economists said

bala · Post by **bala** » 04 Jun 2022 02:53

Even with some countries halting or phasing out energy purchases, Russia's oil-and-gas revenue will be about $285 billion this year, according to estimates from Bloomberg Economics based on Economy Ministry projections. That would exceed the 2021 figure by more than one-fifth. Russia is being propelled by a flood of cash that could average $800 million a day this year — and that's just what the commodity superpower is raking in from oil and gas. For years, Russia has acted as a vast commodity supermarket selling what an insatiable world has needed: Not just energy, but wheat, nickel, aluminum and palladium. The current account surplus, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, more than tripled in the first four months of the year to almost $96 billion. That figure, the highest since at least 1994, mainly reflected a surge in commodity prices, though a plunge in imports under the weight of international sanctions was also a factor. The ruble has become another symbol used by Putin to project strength. Once mocked by Biden as “rubble” when it initially collapsed in response to the sanctions, it’s since been propped up by Russia to become the world’s best-performing currency against the dollar this year.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 04 Jun 2022 03:42

March 22, 2022:

Zoltan Pozsar: We are witnessing the birth of a new world monetary order

He is talking of a monetary world order, not a political one.

Zoltan said a crisis of commodities could be unfolding. Commodities are collateral, and collateral is money, and this crisis is about the rising allure of outside money over inside money. Bretton Woods II was built on inside money, and its foundations crumbled a week ago when the G7 seized Russia’s FX reserve.

“We are witnessing the birth of Bretton Woods III – a new world (monetary) order centered around commodity-based currencies in the East that will likely weaken the Eurodollar system and also contribute to inflationary forces in the West.” – Zoltan Pozsar, Former Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Department official, and now Credit Suisse Global Head of Short-Term Interest Rate Strategy based in New York.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 04 Jun 2022 08:16

Is the Western Coalition Against Russia Beginning to Founder? | Opinion

In the 14 weeks since Russian forces first sent ballistic missiles into Ukraine, the West has proved itself to be a strong, unified bloc. Before the Feb. 24 invasion, the European Union (EU) was often divided against itself on Russia policy, with countries like Poland and the Baltics frequently pitted against France, Germany and Italy, who preferred to preserve lines of communication with the Kremlin. By virtue of its brutality in Ukraine, however, Russia has managed to bring Europe together—so much so that even Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the most sympathetic ear Moscow has in EU, went along with the bloc's earlier sanctions measures.

Now in its fourth month, the war has reached a state of attrition, with Russian troops making incremental but tangible gains in the east of the country and Ukrainian forces either holding defensive lines in other areas or launching small counterattacks to spread Russian military resources thin. Beyond the battlefield, the big question is whether the West will be able to maintain the same amount of collective unity it mustered during the war's first weeks.

On the surface, it would appear the answer is self-evident: yes. Earlier this week, the EU decided to phase out imports of Russian crude oil by the end of the year, mimicking Washington's own Russian oil import ban in March. Yet the oil sanctions were only finalized after a month of internal haggling, fed by opposition from land-locked countries like Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which are highly dependent on Russian crude to keep the lights on. In the end, the sixth EU sanctions package against Moscow was considerably different from what the European Commission proposed in early May—at the insistence of Hungary, Russian oil deliveries via pipeline are still permitted until some undetermined future date. Because EU rules require unanimity on sanctions issues, Orbán was able to use his leverage to draw out the negotiations and eventually preserve Hungary's energy supply.

If the discussions over Russia oil sanctions threatened to torpedo the EU's cohesiveness, a debate over cutting or eliminating Russian natural gas will be even more fraught. The EU relies on Russia for about 40 percent of its natural gas, and 10 countries, including Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Austria, imported more than 75 percent of their gas from Moscow. With inflation in the Eurozone at a 23-year high, the last thing many European governments want to do is adopt a policy that forces their people to pay even more for fuel. Austria's Chancellor Karl Nehammer has already dismissed the idea of Russian natural gas being the target of the next round of EU sanctions.

While U.S. and European officials won't admit it, there is a growing rift between Washington and some European countries as to what constitutes success in Ukraine. There's an agreement on what the ideal scenario would be: Ukraine establishing full control over every inch of its territory (including Crimea), and Russian troops withdrawing from the goodness of their hearts.

But as is often the case in international politics, the ideal is sheer fantasy, an outgrowth of our hopes and dreams rather than a reflection of reality. Therein lies the fundamental disagreement within the West. There is a divergence about what it will take to end the war in Ukraine and what a so-called victory in Ukraine is supposed to look like. The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as the U.K. and Poland, simply don't buy into the logic of a ceasefire when Russia troops have the momentum in the Donbas and occupy approximately one-fifth of Ukrainian territory. "We must avoid a bad peace," Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas tweeted on May 25. "A badly negotiated peace for Ukraine would mean a bad peace for us all."

For German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, however, a negotiated peace is exactly what the situation calls for. Last weekend, the two European leaders held a three-way telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin and implored the Russian leader to begin a direct dialogue with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi went a step further, tabling a draft peace proposal that included an immediate ceasefire along the current front-line, to be followed by discussions over Ukraine's neutral status, security guarantees for Kyiv and autonomy for Crimea and the Donbas. That Moscow and Kyiv rejected Italy's proposal doesn't paper over the fact that different European governments are starting to view the war in different ways.

There is even some dispute within the U.S. government about next steps. Russia is now the most sanctioned country on the planet, courtesy of the Biden administration's moves over the last four months that have banned the export of high-end technology to Russia, frozen hundreds of billions of dollars in Russian foreign reserves and kicked large Russian financial institutions off the SWIFT payment system. There are now reports of the White House and State Department deliberating over a more aggressive strategy against the Russian oil industry, perhaps by sanctioning any foreign entity who purchases, finances, or transports Russian oil. Treasury Department officials are hesitant to advocate for secondary sanctions, arguing it would further tighten the oil market at a time when prices are in the triple-digits.

All of these disagreements could very well be rectified after rounds of intense negotiations. But as the war proceeds and the sanctions begin to impact consumers in the West, the coalition against Russia is bound to experience more of these internal fractures over policy and strategy.

Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs columnist at Newsweek.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 04 Jun 2022 10:13

A slightly different perspective on the war and what may happen next : (twitter thread)

https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/ ... 93410?s=20

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 04 Jun 2022 11:10

Cyrano wrote:A slightly different perspective on the war and what may happen next : (twitter thread)

https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/ ... 93410?s=20

Oh, Valina T. Mindboggling repository of regurgitated info. : ) (Sorry, could not resist it. Apologies)

Wonder how she missed tagging Walt. She should have got a lot more hits than *just* Mearsheimer. And, if per chance she had tagged Fareed Bhai (yeah, same bloodline. Amazingly), twitter servers would have crashed.