I was having an email conversation with RajeshA ji, and the following is an excerpt from that conversation from one of my emails. At his suggestion, I am putting it out there FWIW, please take it as my 2 paisa:
Large states like China and India are going to become more influential players as time passes. Smaller states whether they are Muslim or otherwise, they will try to balance the increasing roles of these two emerging giants with their relationships with competing powers. At this moment, since the US led West is still at the top, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan or any other country, whenever they are faced with a threat from any of these two emerging powers, they look to US led West or the remaining power from the above two to balance off, so this part is obvious. And this role of being the global balancer is why US led West will continue to occupy the moral high ground. The meme of white supremacy and "white man's burden" idea is symbiotic with this status quo, meaning the status quo situation of economic/scientific/military supremacy and the idea of racial white supremacy reinforce each other.
According to the rule of divide and conquer, if a global super power want to concentrate all power in its own hand, then every body else must be made as divided and scattered as possible. So for the US and EU, large states like China and India are long term strategic threats, in my opinion, mainly because they are at least 4 times the size of US and 3 times the size of EU in population. Even if all white people in the world united, from Russia, Oceania to EU and North America, it would still be less than a billion. I believe a white fortress Europa with EU+North America+Russia+Oceania will happen when the US led West will finally come to realize that they are loosing their edge with the Chinese, lets say around 2025-2030 time frame.
So there are two things:
- one is that both China and India are growing economically and gaining in science and technology knowledge base and the gap with the West is reducing every year
- the West still has a substantial lead, but they are not united in large states like China or India and it is questionable if the geographically distant North America, EU, Russia and Oceania can really unite, just based on their common ethnic white European origin and historical homeland, which gives them a common somewhat similar cultural background.
The smaller countries, which is the rest of the world must wonder then who should they bet on in the long term. Is it going to be a possible united West/white nation, China or India? A reference to a very well known model may be relevant:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World-systems_theory
Here we need to consider other issues like relationships between people of the countries. The US led West actually has been using their colonial connection as well as the meme of white supremacy and their current scientific, economic and social advancement to the fullest to enhance relationship between the rest of the world and themselves and thus establish themselves as the moral leader of the world that everyone should follow and emulate, although the story is a bit mixed considering and taking into account the past and present predatory behaviors, including the past decade of over reaction since 9/11. But nevertheless they have a conscious effort in this direction, to attract the elite of other countries, host them in educational institutions and eventually accommodate them in their civil society with a reasonable good income and life style. My living in the US and your living in EU are good examples, so are millions of others. Providing market access is another important economic incentive. So these factors of good will and cultivated relationship also count for a lot when people consider how much they will be able to trust the future of their people and their country if they depend on a certain super power and become a part of their sphere of influence.
China and India still have a long way to go to cultivate such relationships, I think and it will become only more important in future years. Chinese Han chauvinism and ultra nationalism will be a good glue to keep their majority "Han" population united, but relationship with neighbors can become collateral damage of this unifying nationalism, unless more virulent strains of this meme is controlled. Similarly a unifying nationalism may have positives for Indian "majority" population, but its relations with minorities, neighbors as well as others may become collateral damage, if this nationalism uses the other as a useful scapegoat. And when small nations feel threatened and ill-treated, they will find themselves with no choice but to find balancers from near or far. Whether it is Pakistan, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka w.r.t India or it is Japan, Korea, Vietnam or Indonesia w.r.t. China, the story is pretty much the same.
So what are smaller less powerful nations going to do in the future to protect their interest. I think the trend will be to form more EU type regional unions of nation states, so we will see more of African Union, ASEAN (possibly Japan and Korea joining and may be Bangladesh joining in at a much later stage), Central Asian Union (7 stan's+Mongolia+Turkey+Azerbaijan and possibly Iran in the future), Arab League, Latin American Union etc. This trend, in my opinion, will be an attempt to reduce harmful influence from large superpower states or group of states of the world.
With our thought experiment, we have seen how people feel about a SAARC union. It is quite natural, because people in large states like India and China already know they are one of the largest states in the world, they just need to manage their affairs well to do well, they do not need to get into any future possible unions, while they have their plate full keeping what they have together, united and well managed. In a way, both China and India are unions, but have the unique and unusual privilege to be existing nation states.
While I see this future possible road map for the world, I wish the people of India well. We used to be one country and people, twist of fate has made us separate. I think hatred, past historical baggage and not having an open mind about future possibilities will not help people of India, in their effort to become a future global super power. It will hamper in their economic relationship with not just neighbors like Pakistan or Bangladesh, but also their relationship with a quarter of the world's population, who happen to be Muslim. Granted Muslims have their myriad problems, but despite these problems, the West deals with Muslims in many different ways. They make many mistakes, they started a crusade since 9/11 and killed close to a million in Iraq and Afghanistan and have started killing in Pakistan and elsewhere with their drones in the name of GWOT, yet they go into Libya and help these same Muslims and provide at least moral support in Syria, while China cannot get past their limited vision and ideas. India did poorly with Libya initially but learnt its lessons and did well with Syria. In summary, Muslims know that the stupid white man is ignorant, head strong and kinda clue less, but they mean well and they do not have a blanket hatred of Muslims and the religion of Islam. So after all these misdeeds, the "white man" gets away with murder and still maintains the moral high ground compared with competing emerging powers like China or India.
This is where shiv' ji's point comes in. White supremacy is a peculiar meme that is believed and upheld by non-whites much more so than more knowledgeable, educated, exposed and politically correct whites. So for example, I personally experienced more racism from Bangladeshi's or Korean's or Arabs or Turkic Central Asians than from educated white's (Russians or Americans). I have seen that educated white people treat me better and show more respect than an educated Bangladeshi man or an educated Korean man or any of the others I mentioned above. How is it possible? I think it has to do with level of self respect people usually have for themselves and this in large part determines how they treat others. Of course it depends on individuals and there are exceptions to the rule, but I am speaking in general and what I have seen in most cases. This is not to say that white people have given up on white supremacy, my proof for that is their arrogance and stupidity in not seeing the threat from China and India and helping to empower these two mega economies, which of course works out well to create a more multi-polar world. So let them be proud, arrogant and stupid, why not. I think it will be good for the world only.
Like VS Naipaul's concept of wounded civilization, I believe both China and India will find their mettle in due time, which shiv ji is lamenting about. I think it's only a matter of time, as nutrition, education and socio economic condition improves gradually. And if we can find a neighbor as someone who we can depend on and who we have so much in common with, why should we go to the West or the Chinese? It is a possible future I would hope and wish to see, while in the interim we keep trying to create union of smaller nation states, using existing balancers to balance and depend on the existing core. I think this general state of affairs can be applied to a lot of situations in the world, whether it is in subcontinent or in other parts of the world.