The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc) - II

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 12:52

what is the + shaped fence thing near the tail?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 13:11

the supply lines and inactive fronts are mostly staffed with tier3 units like NDF ... they are not that capable of resisting IS swarm attack and no wonder lost control last night of the aleppo highway. earlier also they lost control of maheen and qarayteen which were assigned as a garrison duty after saa and hezbollah took them.

they need significant blending with more upper tier units to be combat effective and cannot stand alone. but manpower shortages mean not all places can be well protected.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 13:19

ISIS + western rebels one on each side.

Hassan Ridha Retweeted Leith Abou Fadel
Jund Al-Aqsa & FSA seem to have cut the road, from the west, so it wasn't IS

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 22 Feb 2016 13:26

Singha wrote:ISIS + western rebels one on each side.

Hassan Ridha Retweeted Leith Abou Fadel
Jund Al-Aqsa & FSA seem to have cut the road, from the west, so it wasn't IS

It seems both IS and rebels claimed to have captured the same village. Anyways, SAA has sent a large contingent to retake the village.

Funny, how the terrorists confuse their organisations name.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 22 Feb 2016 13:35

RT ‏@RT_com now1 minute ago
Radioactive device feared stolen by ISIS found outside petrol station in Iraq http://on.rt.com/753i

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 14:52

rats trying to reopen another route.....they realise deir hafr crossroad will be under heavy pressure shortly.

ARA News

KOBANE – Clashes broke out on Saturday between Kurdish fighters from the People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Islamic State’s (ISIS) militants in northern Raqqa, military sources reported.

The clashes centered in the vicinity of Tishreen Dam in the northwestern countryside of Raqqa, where the YPG and allies from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) repelled an attack by ISIS militants on the strategic dam.

“A group of Daesh terrorists attacked our headquarters near Tishreen Dam on Saturday evening. The group has used heavy machine guns and mortar fire in the offensive,” YPG spokesman Hebun Osman told ARA News, using an acronym for ISIS. “The group then tried to infiltrate into our command center east of the dam, which led to clashes that claimed lives of dozens of Daesh members.”

“The YPG and allied units of the SDF were eventually able to repel the attack. We have collected dead bodies of 38 Daesh terrorists after the clashes on Saturday midnight,” the official said, adding that seven Kurdish fighters were killed and a number of others injured in the clashes.

The Kurdish-Arab alliance of the SDF had recaptured the Tishreen Dam on the Euphrates River in December, subsequent to clashes with ISIS militants. The dam had severed over nearly two years as a main supply line for ISIS between the northern countryside of Aleppo and Raqqa–ISIS de facto capital in Syria.

On Friday, the western-backed SDF expelled ISIS militant fighters from the city of Shaddadi–ISIS main bastion in Syria’s northeastern Hasakah province.

Reporting by: Hozan Mamo

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Feb 2016 14:54

Singha wrote:what is the + shaped fence thing near the tail?

Dont see any plus shape , just end of tail may be APU extension

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 15:05

^ I mean the railing things where a rear door would normally be.

Michael Horowitz ‏@michaelh992 16h16 hours ago
#Breaking unidentified warplanes struck a boat transporting #ISIS militants and weapons off the coast of Sabratah #Libya

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 15:06

FSA mini MLRS
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbvgXsPWIAEZC5F.png
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbvgXz_XIAA10jP.png

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 15:13

few captured IS fighters in shahdadi
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cbm99XRUAAA8m3R.jpg

the two visible look fairly old and more like biryani and galauti kabab cooks than real fighters...probably cooks, cleaners and camp followers left behind in the retreat

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 15:17

band of chechens in north syria somewhere
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbgFr4jWcAAmuWn.jpg

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 22 Feb 2016 15:17

Singha wrote:few captured IS fighters in shahdadi
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cbm99XRUAAA8m3R.jpg

old men who came for the loot and shabab
who couldn't run away when the battle turned against them

reminds of the 'bustard hunt' with the two ISIS fatties that was posted a few months back

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 22 Feb 2016 15:57

Lalmohan wrote:has king salman the strap-on thrust manfully into syria yet?
maybe woh erdogan ka shaiyar hai, erdogan uski kahani hai?
<< plij to finish >>

perhaps vlad the bad will have to step in...

woh erdogan ka shaiyar hai, erdogan uski kahani hai
pichwara ho gaya sasta hai, ab g**nd mein uske paani hai...

Etc.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 22 Feb 2016 16:48

Singha wrote:band of chechens in north syria somewhere
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbgFr4jWcAAmuWn.jpg

Could be wrong, but I don't think that's northern Syria, or Syria at all.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 16:52

^ could be latakia mountains

al masdar news

The confusion is over: the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) is attacking the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in southeastern Aleppo; however, they are not alone, thanks in large part to the joint effort from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Jund Al-Aqsa (Syrian Al-Qaeda group). ISIS and the Islamist rebels share control over the small village of Rasm Al-Nafal, along with 2 other points on the Khanasser-Aleppo Road that they captured in a simultaneous assault on the National Defense Forces (NDF) last night. Both the Islamist rebels and ISIS announced that they control Rasm Al-Nafal and they have yet to attack one another; instead, they are assaulting the Syrian Armed Forces, who just sent fresh reinforcements to this front in order to recapture the points they lost along this road. It is very likely that these forces have coordinated together in order to cutoff the Syrian government’s only supply line to the Aleppo Governorate; this would benefit both ISIS and the Islamist rebels because they’re both under attack by the Syrian Arab Army and their allies. As this imperative battle continues to develop in the Aleppo Governorate’s southeastern countrysife, the military situation on the ground will likely become more clear.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/is ... st-aleppo/ | Al-Masdar News

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Feb 2016 17:23

Singha wrote:^ I mean the railing things where a rear door would normally be.

Just looks like a High Gain HF Antenna ...... the placement perhaps decided by so many other RF things out there to minimize interference

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 22 Feb 2016 17:38

A basic (probably stupid) question for Gurus here. Why doesn't Syrian govt & its allies just focus on one front at a time & wipe it out? Maybe focus on Aleppo first & then roll up the desert flank of Idlib & Hama southwards & only then try to take care of the far eastern Euphrates provinces? Why are they attacking along so many axes?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 18:19

Because no front can be neglected in flow of events.
Relatively they have kept it quiet in South.
They are facing off USA, Sunni kabila, tens of militias, Isis.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 22 Feb 2016 18:55

nageshks wrote:A basic (probably stupid) question for Gurus here. Why doesn't Syrian govt & its allies just focus on one front at a time & wipe it out? Maybe focus on Aleppo first & then roll up the desert flank of Idlib & Hama southwards & only then try to take care of the far eastern Euphrates provinces? Why are they attacking along so many axes?

The Assad regime has limited choices but multiple problems. It has pockets of pro regime population which are under rebel control and they need to be freed. Their family members are in the SAA. Soldiers want the regime to work for their families freedom.

Then their are pro Assad pockets under siege. These are strong constituency of support from foreign militias like the Hezbollah. For eg: Hezbollah has sworn that they will free the small Shia pocket at Al Fu'ah, come what may. Hezbollah support is mostly directed towards the freedom of this Idlib pocket. Militias like Hezbollah are similar in their grit as ISIS or Al Nusra. They do not retreat and they act in their interests.

Then there are economic considerations - mainly oil fields in eastern deserts of Syria which need to be taken back. It is also where a large group of people are surrounded by ISIS. If they don't pay attention to this, there will be a massacre there as it happened with the soldiers of Al Tabqah air base.

To really stop the rebels all strategists also understand that the main supply routes need to be stopped and they originate either in Turkey or Jordan. Some help is coming from Israel but SAA knows that it is simply the toughest border to mess with. So, for now they are letting things cool off near Israel but some action is in progress on all other supply routes.

The Kurds in the north have their own fish to fry both with Turkey and Syria but as of now the regime has been able to look beyond the problem Kurdish Rojava will create for Syria and therefore SAA is working with YPG. All this is under the Russian umbrella of-course. That battle is also being supported by Assad by using Sy AF.

All the parties know that in case the Saudi - Turk backed terrorists fail in over throwing Assad, the next best thing is a contiguous Sunni state in between Iraq and Syria. Assad can only stop this by a) not letting a contiguous territory develop and b) have at least a foot in the door in each Syrian province. By the end of Aug '15, this contiguous territory had been created.

It was only the greed to throw Assad that the terrorists did not cooperate with each other and did not declare a state without ISIS.Such a state would have been given a prompt recognition from the usual Arab Sunni states and also EU plus NATO countries. Fortunately, for Assad, no one had forecast Russian intervention at the peak of rebel power and how soon that peak would be lost.

In Sep' 15, Russia entered Syria and since then enough progress has been made on multiple fronts to stop the Saudi and Turkey ambitions. Since every province / area under the terrorists is held by different rebel group, their loss of territory individually weakens their say on the negotiation table and keeps them fighting among themselves. This keeps their position weak in bargains and makes it difficult for Saudi - Turkey to present a united front of rebels. Recent Geneva III peace talks are a classic case. The rebel chief negotiator turned up in Geneva after the talks were suspended.

Finally, if they move most of the resources from any front to concentrate on a particular front, the rebels are strong enough to barge right through and head straight to Damascus from across Syria.

This is my analysis, not from any expert POV but listening in to videos, seeing the various rebel groups and following some twitter handles who are mostly pro Assad.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 19:17

deir azzor and raqqa province have most of the syrian oil wealth. the piles rubble that is most syrian cities and villages will need huge amounts to rebuild. debts will need to be paid. imports of many things will be needed like power plants , automobiles , medical gear...the familes of war dead & crippled will need support and pensions after putting their lives on the line for govt.

assad needs the oil revenue for syria to be a viable country again.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 22 Feb 2016 19:22

The SAA have captured at least one point back from the rebels on the Ithriya - Khanaser road. More points need to be taken.

In other news

H e b a ‏@HKX07 now41 minutes ago
Colonel Iman Yassine Yousif of Daraykesh was also killed in #Homs #Syria
R.I.P

What will our leftist JNUites think of such sacrifices?

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 22 Feb 2016 19:26

SyAF has been busy bombing some terrorist get togethers near Hama. High kill scores.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ha ... r-attacks/

A long convoy of the militant groups’ military vehicles in the Northern part of Hama was heavily bombed by the Syrian Army’s aircraft, inflicting major damage on the military column.

The Syrian fighter jets’ bombardments of a military column of the militants’ vehicles near the villages of Atshan and Skeik in the Northern territories of Hama province ended in the destruction of many vehicles, including heavy machinegun-equipped ones.

The militants also suffered a heavy death toll in the air raids.

In relevant developments on Sunday, the Syrian fighter jets targeted concentration centers of Jeish al-Fatah terrorist group in the Northern part of Hama province, killing 35 militants and wounding many more.

Positions of Jeish al-Fatah near al-Lataminah came under the massive strikes of the Syrian army’s aircraft, which ended in the killing of 35 terrorists.

Meantime, the Syrian fighter jets bombed gathering centers of al-Nusra Front and Ahrar al-Sham near the town of Kafr Zita and inflicted major losses on the terrorists.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ha ... r-attacks/ | Al-Masdar News

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 19:35

this is a good article that explains the old situation in deir azzor city, and the arrival of the issam zahredine with only part of the 104 republican guard brigade, their battles and how they have help up the NDF, tribes and 137th brigade in the long 2+ years of battle , while the govt has lost control of the azor - palmyra highway since early last year , they are still fighting with resupply by air

http://spioenkop.blogspot.in/2014/12/ba ... z-zor.html

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Feb 2016 19:37

maybe and just maybe USA strategy from hereon is to block progress of SAA in guise of peace talks one way or other. And break some member from Russian team viz Lavrov or somebody who makes conciliatory notes towards US demands for ceasefire or is atleast amenable to some 'suggestions' and push YPG and SDF to take over Raqqa & DeZ as soon as possible and then push YPG/SDF to invite USA to **assist** them in maintaining the peace in the region and then USA comes in with ground troops since 'hey YPG invited us' and makes the YPG/SDF borders more or less permanent.

this seems to be the contours of USA plan.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 19:39

part of what is known as SDF was formerly part of the FSA as well in initial days of revolution when FSA had not been split and bashed by JN and IS attacks and desertions. these include two raqqa province militias.

they will demand their pounds of flesh for sure when the time comes. assad has no resources to contest anything east of the euphrates . for him best outcome is Rojava as a highly federalized province which is a PITA for turkey and they hate erdogan more than they fear assad, and a relatively 'secular' tribal rule in east raqqa, hasakah, eastern deir with revenue sharing and himself in charge for everything between the euphrates to the sea, and the green belt of Idlib converted to Red and so too the ISIS swamp in east homs and palmyra.

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Feb 2016 19:43

If you see the progress of YPG/SDF, they started from nowhere and have achieved astounding pace of progress. The Turks are nervous because YPG is testing their western borders as well, since they know that USA has more or less give YPG a free hand to expand first into Raqqa and DeZ because that is the best way to balkanize Syria. This YPG/SDF is not as benign as they seem, they are supping with the satan.

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Feb 2016 19:46

From what I understand of SAA formations, their 104 mechanized/airborne or 'Tiger forces' are the offensive forces and Republican Guards are specialists in defensive ops. That is how Gen Zahreddine does stellar work in protecting the DeZ Military AB.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 19:47

the attitude of baghdad and shia higher ups in karbala and iran is important too. will they tolerate a new sunni proto-state sandwiched in between ? the clergy cannot be paid off, but the elites in baghdad could be 'persuaded' to leave the issue alone ..... but it will be problematic long term as KSA/Qatari/Turkish money will radicalize it again into a PITA for all of syria, rojava, iraq.

its best for everyone in that list the baby be stillborn and given a quiet burial.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 22 Feb 2016 19:53

Singha wrote:few captured IS fighters in shahdadi
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cbm99XRUAAA8m3R.jpg

the two visible look fairly old and more like biryani and galauti kabab cooks than real fighters...probably cooks, cleaners and camp followers left behind in the retreat

Looks like the IS pigs are getting it on in the truck. The guy in the middle is doing a Paki by taking it at one end and giving it the other.

-M

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 19:54

syria oil and gas is concentrated in

- palmyra-tabqah-deir triangle - SAA could claim this
- east of deir - NDF is moving on this
- Hasakah - YPG has it
- east homs - ISIS is sitting on it but is being slowly evicted

http://static3.businessinsider.com/imag ... ng-for.jpg

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 22 Feb 2016 20:02

YPG maybe slipping in Shaddadi

Ivan Sidorenko
‏@IvanSidorenko1
#Syria #Hasakah Step news Agency says #SDF #QSD Withdrew from #Shaddadi due to #ISIS #ISIL #Daesh Car Bombings & Attacks.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2016 20:02

some reports claim ISIS has launched fierce VBIED attacks @ shahdadi and forced the SDF to withdraw north again, capturing lot of prisoners...

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 22 Feb 2016 20:51

JE Menon wrote:
Singha wrote:band of chechens in north syria somewhere
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbgFr4jWcAAmuWn.jpg
Could be wrong, but I don't think that's northern Syria, or Syria at all.

waterfall in background. Looks like Colombia or something.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 22 Feb 2016 21:20

Probably Caucasus...

Could be some mountainous area in Syria, like GD said, but I have my doubts... That sort of wet lushness is not impossible, but very very rare in the Levant.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 22 Feb 2016 22:01

Syrian cease fire from 27th Feb. Al Nusra and ISIS excluded from this arrangement.

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Feb 2016 22:07

my strong suspiscion is that it is from hatay province in turkey bordering Syria. Search 'turkey tourism' in google and you get a waterfall exactly like that in the background. It is in antakya, hatay.

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Feb 2016 22:41

jokerry's fluctuating moral compass ..

Ken Klippenstein ‏@kenklippenstein
John Kerry condemns cluster bombs in Syria while Saudis use US-supplied cluster bombs in Yemen. https://twitter.com/marywareham/status/ ... 3422842882 …

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Feb 2016 07:26

deejay wrote:Syrian cease fire from 27th Feb. Al Nusra and ISIS excluded from this arrangement.

IS is easy to identify. but JN very hard as they are everywhere and blended in with other formations.

until these other formations do not desert the 'rebel alliance' and chase out the JN or leave the JN areas, ceasefire in west is hard.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Feb 2016 07:28

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 25m25 minutes ago
The groups that are reportedly participating in the attack on #SAA; Turkestan Islamic Party, Caucus Emirate, Nusra, Fajr Al-Sham and ISIS

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 32m32 minutes ago
#JundAqsa refutes claims that it is participating in the assault on Khanaser highway #Aleppo

considerable stretch of road has been captured.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Feb 2016 07:30

^ they are attacking from both sides and trying to take over a very long stretch of road

will need a major offsensive to turn back this new tide.