Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 21 Nov 2016 08:33

I hope they build pre fabricated high quality houses with energy efficient or solar buit in and involve Make in India. Can we suggest this to PM?

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 21 Nov 2016 08:41

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 21 Nov 2016 09:00

Interesting perspective from Stratfor of all people:
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/cashi ... ck-economy

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 21 Nov 2016 09:05

Kapoor ji, have a PM for you.

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 21 Nov 2016 09:17

vijayk wrote:I hope they build pre fabricated high quality houses with energy efficient or solar buit in and involve Make in India. Can we suggest this to PM?

Who is stopping you

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 21 Nov 2016 09:23

achoudhury wrote:So Modi's next strike is certainly on Benami Properties. Probably he already has a starting list of properties. He will now aggressively push Housing Scheme for all especially in Rural areas to generate employment to failsafe the blowback from inevitable slowdown in real estate sector. He may,as well , give a last chance to Corrupt to declare and pay some hefty fine by liquidating their Gold asssets as they wont have any liquid cash

Whatever scheme is devised, it cannot be another VDS, it would be slap on the face of people who came clean. And no one will take Modi seriously and his credibility will be hit.

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 21 Nov 2016 09:37

Manish_Sharma wrote:
Kakkaji wrote:Accounts wake up - Flurry of activity in Jan Dhan segment (in Bengal)

15 lakh x 2.50 lakh = 375000000000 (don't know this figure in english but in hindi I count its 3 kharab 75 arab rupees)

375,000,000,000 = 375,000,000 thousand = 375,000 Million = 375 Billion = 5.5 Billion $US

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 21 Nov 2016 09:40

Bart S wrote:Interesting perspective from Stratfor of all people:
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/cashi ... ck-economy

Quote - Though the origins of India's informal economy doubtless trace back centuries — 400 years of foreign rule under the Mughal and British empires did not foster a strong culture of civic duty /quote

People developed an innate sense of 'careful about govt, don't believe what they say, just stay low and use loopholes and focus on just your family' ..after 1947 and the large scale participation of the masses, this should have changed. But the Congress became just another alien elite govt system that made people distrust, fear, loathe etc. A few became part of system to use system for profit , the rest learned to duck and cover

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 21 Nov 2016 09:50

From HYD airport. Welcome news about plastic notes. I hope they go 100% polymer like Oz. After getting used to good things one wishes the same to happen in India.

At BLR bought tea from chai point using payTM. So easy. every tray for laptops in security has payTM all over it. Agile payTM.

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 21 Nov 2016 10:01

abhijitm wrote:
durairaaj wrote:The tamil news reports that PM Modi might have suggested reviewing (actual translation from tamil is relook) the demonetisation process. It says the reasons are: President is opposed to this step and the numerous cases filed against the govt in High courts and supreme courts might lead to unfavorable judgements.
News Link
Not possible to go back now. Situation is stabilizing and huge investment already in demonetization.

Heard the speech, nothing about rollback.
What is there to rollback it is almost done.

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 21 Nov 2016 10:02

Is paytm available for NRI use for short term?

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 21 Nov 2016 10:06

ragupta wrote:Is paytm available for NRI use for short term?

It's just an app that you install on a phone. All you need is a phone number (presumably a local one). However transferring money in to the account might be restricted to local bank accounts and other PayTM enabled mobiles. So basically you might need someone's help with putting money in to it.

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 21 Nov 2016 10:10

Sachin wrote:.
3. Some reasonably big-wigs prosecuted for tax evasions and perhaps a few arrests, hand cuffing and parading on the way to the courts.

There is a saying something like "Mari bhais ki pooch to pakad ke kya fayda" aur Jale pe namak lagana.
Let them simmer in their loss for a while, and then law will take it own course.

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 21 Nov 2016 10:11

Bart S wrote:
ragupta wrote:Is paytm available for NRI use for short term?
It's just an app that you install on a phone. All you need is a phone number (presumably a local one). However transferring money in to the account might be restricted to local bank accounts and other PayTM enabled mobiles. So basically you might need someone's help with putting money in to it.

Thanks, whether NRE or NRO will help?

vina · Post by **vina** » 21 Nov 2016 10:28

srin wrote:Some anecdotes:
1) We ran out of coupons to buy Nandini milk (I'm in BLR), so called up the milk delivery guy who promised to deliver the coupons later in the evening. When he came to deliver coupons in the evening, we asked how we can pay because we don't have the cash (and we used to pay by cash). The guy said we can pay him later when we have the cash, its fine, but he needs cash. I asked him about online transfer, paytm etc and he said his bank account is "maxed at 2.5L". So, got the milk coupons on credit for now.

Pay him in cheque. The 2.5L is for CASH. For cheques there is no limit . Dont go back to cash ever .Pay him via cheques only. Our Milkman (even the earlier one) has been getting paid by cheques monthly, ever since we moved back to India.

2) We used to pay our maid by cash. After the demonetisation, we asked her we can pay her other than cash. She said she doesn't have a bank account. We asked her to get a bank account and what IDs she has. She said she has election ID and Aadhaar and so we told her getting an account is very easy. She herself has volunteered to go to State Bank of Mysore near to her house to get the forms and asked my SHQ to help her fill it up. So, I know atleast one person will come under formal channel now.

Yes. Ask her how does she get the "Gas Money" ? The DBT goes directly into a bank account only. If it is in her husband's name, fine, go ahead and ask her open an account.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 21 Nov 2016 10:31

ragupta wrote:
Bart S wrote:
It's just an app that you install on a phone. All you need is a phone number (presumably a local one). However transferring money in to the account might be restricted to local bank accounts and other PayTM enabled mobiles. So basically you might need someone's help with putting money in to it.
Thanks, whether NRE or NRO will help?

I'm not really sure. It is a free download from the app stores, you could just download it and try it out.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 21 Nov 2016 10:38

I have travelled through large parts of AP and TS states last week by car. Most of the areas are drought-hit areas and not known for being rich. While I must admit one can only see so much while going in a car, there were lines before PSU Bank branches and shops were also having customers. I purchased food and other items on the way and seen hotels and other eateries are full of people. No one expressed any serious problems to me.

One the other hand my mother was admitted to hospital and the doctor refused to either to take old notes or cheques. He was not ready for an account transfer. This is a fellow known to us for a decade or so. From this, it is clear most of the problems are due to the reason of people not willing to come to recorded transactions and still are interested in dealing with cash.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 21 Nov 2016 10:52

If I were you, I'd register a complaint against this doctor with IT department.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 21 Nov 2016 10:53

If I were you, I'd register a complaint against this doctor with IT department.

vina · Post by **vina** » 21 Nov 2016 11:08

Yagnasri wrote:. He was not ready for an account transfer. This is a fellow known to us for a decade or so. From this, it is clear most of the problems are due to the reason of people not willing to come to recorded transactions and still are interested in dealing with cash.

Simple. Ask him for the bill. Then you go your bank and buy a demand draft and settle the bill with that. He cannot refuse it like a cheque. He doesnt need to give you his bank details (which a lot of individual people will be loath to share, his clinic might not have a current account) . That way, all of you can be happy.

If he refuses to take the DD, then sure, file a case against him in the consumer court and report to IT that he is not accepting a demand draft and is insisting on cash only.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 21 Nov 2016 11:14

Most doctors in smaller towns I grew up don't pay any tax. All cash and all hidden and invested in lands

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 21 Nov 2016 11:22

Doctors do not pay tax and we are not seriously willing to fight with them when we have seriously sick and old people at our house. The fundamental problem is the IT department's willingness to keep quiet about these people who do not pay any tax or pay a small amount of tax.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 21 Nov 2016 11:26

vina wrote:
Yagnasri wrote: He doesnt need to give you his bank details (which a lot of individual people will be loath to share, his clinic might not have a current account) .

That's why with UPI you don't need to share bank account details to receive money though it goes straight into the bank account.

vina · Post by **vina** » 21 Nov 2016 11:31

Yagnasri wrote:Doctors do not pay tax and we are not seriously willing to fight with them when we have seriously sick and old people at our house. The fundamental problem is the IT department's willingness to keep quiet about these people who do not pay any tax or pay a small amount of tax.

Lets not tar "Doctors" with a broad brush. All the doctors in Bangalore that I go to for my kids, SHQ and myself, I pay using my credit card , even in their clinics/ consultation.

Trouble is most doctors dont have the POS/Swipe machine and they probably never had an business accounting system in place. They are doctors first and not businessmen . For eg, if you have a consultation with my dad, you will have to give cash. He cannot take a cheque because it might bounce. He doesn't have a swipe machine. Sure, if you come with a draft for that, he will take it . But that is too much of a trouble.

Maybe going forward, if everything goes cashless he will have to get himself a digital wallet and accept payments there. But that is a long way off.Most of his patients will pay cash . Works for everyone. That after all IS the function of cash. But hospitals /surgeries etc, most places will have account information that they will share with you and allow you to do a transfer.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 21 Nov 2016 12:30

The doctor i took my son to, for vaccination used the swipe machine of a fellow doctor who shared her clinic. It was 4k plus. Wonder how she would manage it.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 21 Nov 2016 12:35

You are fortunate with good doctors and I am not. Further, my mother lives in a town and you may be in cities. That also may be a reason. In any event, I am told that almost no one pays IT in my hometown.

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 21 Nov 2016 12:51

Gov should impose 5L fixed tax per year to doctors, some similar amount from SMEs. Then they will have no incentive to demand cash only.

If they can't even pay a nominal amount then the doctor doesn't deserve to be treating patients.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 21 Nov 2016 13:07

aren't all the bigger hospitals getting corporatized..and wouldn't that include getting bills, records etc? The bigger ones I went to for my FiL's issues last year, all of them had computerized billing. A few smaller ones I went to for my kids issues also gave a bill for the fees.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 21 Nov 2016 13:15

hanumadu wrote:I-T search at engg college finds Rs 8cr deposited in 400 accounts

Just as we discussed would happen. Some employees intimated the IT department. This should be publicized wildly as a deterrent to others trying the same trick.

This needs to be posted in full, as it is probably one of the first reports emerging, fitting the scenario discussed in the earlier pages.

I-T search at engg college finds Rs 8cr deposited in 400 accounts
Sivakumar B
Chennai:

Employees Were Promised Commission
Income Tax department officials on Saturday conducted searches at a well-known engineering college in the city {heard it was one of the politician promoted instis, local news probably names them} following reports that the owner had deposited `8 crore in unaccounted cash in the accounts of employees. The searches came in the wake of information provided by some of the employees who had deposited the cash as `instructed'.The huge sum, I-T officials found, was deposited in nearly 400 bank accounts. {And all it took was for one person to squeal}

Since November 8, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that ``500 and `1000 currency notes wo and `1000 currency notes would no longer be legal tender, rumours of owners of colle ges and hospitals using their employees bank accounts to deposit black money have been doing the rounds.

“A few days ago we got information from some employees of the college saying their bank accounts wereused by the college owners to deposit cash. Based on this we conducted the searches,“ a senior I-T official told TOI.

Some employees who gave the information to the I-T department, however, could not say to whom the cash belonged to. “Before going to the college we asked the employees about the cash and who deposited it but there were not able to answer. At the college on Saturday we found the owner had used 400 bank accounts to deposit the entire amount in cash,“ said the official. The cash was not shown in any account maintained by the college, he added. “The college accounts could not be balanced with the cash deposits. Therefore it is black money which has been deposited in the employees' accounts. The employees were told that they would be given some commission and after sometime the money would be taken back,“ said the official.

The I-T officials involved in the search questioned the owners and other senior college officials on the deposits.“We are checking whether there is more money in the form of cash which is outside the account,“ he said. Repeated attempts by TOI to contact the college authorities went unanswered.

The searches at the college come a few days after eight jewellers in Broadway were raided based on the information that they were exchanging old high denomination notes with gold. The raid went on for nearly two days but the results haven't been disclosed.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 21 Nov 2016 13:16

vina wrote: <SNIP>For eg, if you have a consultation with my dad, <SNIP>

OT - Vina, your father is ex-AMC?

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 21 Nov 2016 13:25

Rahul M wrote:Kapoor ji, have a PM for you.

Thanks, got it. I think twitter to PMO is best option as it needs a very quick response. The channel I have used earlier (email to PMO) was for IT violations which can take time to prosecute. I don't have twitter unfortunately.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 21 Nov 2016 14:05

Bart S wrote:
vina wrote:
That's why with UPI you don't need to share bank account details to receive money though it goes straight into the bank account.

Personal request., Can any one point me to the process flow for upi activation in any bank account. I have attempted to activate for hdfc bank app. But have not been able to get it activated.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 21 Nov 2016 14:06

I tweeted to PMOindia on using pre fabricated houses Made in India. Hope they do it

Rammpal · Post by **Rammpal** » 21 Nov 2016 14:11

"...... The searches came in the wake of information provided by some of the employees who had deposited the cash as `instructed'.The huge sum, I-T officials found, was deposited in nearly 400 bank accounts. ......."

Are these folks really That stupid ?!!

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 21 Nov 2016 14:19

400% sure NRE and NRO accounts can be linked to payTM to,pay people I.e. debit your account. Not sure about receiving money ie crediting NRE/NRO accounts

NRE Accohnts only accept FX. Maybe be possible to credit INR into NR0 accounts

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 21 Nov 2016 14:26

I see a ticker tape on TV that says farmers can now use old currency to buy seeds. I think the other major piece is the markets where produce is sold. Those markets are still shutdown.

Rammpal · Post by **Rammpal** » 21 Nov 2016 14:29

RajeshG wrote:I see a ticker tape on TV that says farmers can now use old currency to buy seeds. I think the other major piece is the markets where produce is sold. Those markets are still shutdown.

Possible for mamata and kejri to buy up gazillion tonnes of seeds,to pass on to farmers, in exchange for vvotes !!!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Nov 2016 14:33

I cannot speak for all doctors - but in general doctors are educated enough to have accounts, PAN cards, auditors and clear accounts - at least in Bengaluru. Of course there will be cheats like that gynaec with 50 crores (heck how did she collect that much). The days of stashing cash are probably long gone for most doctors. At least in my circle no one batted an eyelid or spoke of being worried after demonetization. Everyone is thrilled to bits

About 20 years ago the IT dept started with doctors as a target for compliance and a large number came into line. Doctors actually get great tax benefits and with a good auditor it is possible to make full use of them while staying well within the law. Compliance is probably high (just a guess) which is probably why banks fall over themselves to give loans to doctors. Of course no harm in complaining - if the doctor is straight he will have no trouble whatsoever.

But doctors are under no compulsion to accept old notes. It is only government hospitals that must accept them (only for a few days more I guess). If someone offers me old notes - I would refuse. I will treat for free - I have more to lose from hanky panky "Did not accept old notes" is the easiest and most laughable complaint that a doctor might have to deal with

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 21 Nov 2016 14:41

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... y8JPI.html

Patel quota agitation spearhead Hardik Patel on Sunday slammed the Centre for its demonetisation move, claiming it only increased the hardships of the common man.
Addressing a massive rally of his community in Bhayavadar town of Rajkot district through video conference, Patel claimed that the Centre’s move to scrap Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes increased the hardships of poor people.

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 21 Nov 2016 14:45

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 633_1.html

While Rs 14 lakh crore is a RBI (Reserve Bank of India) figure, the break-up is my guesstimates and my guesstimates could be different from yours. Out of Rs 14 lakh crore, probably something like Rs 4 lakh crore may be black money. There are two kinds of black money. I will call one kind of black as ‘double black’ where the activity that led to generation of that income is illegal – crimes, trafficking etc.

‘Single black’ is when the activity is not illegal but you have not paid taxes. Let’s assume that out of Rs 4 lakh crore, Rs 2.5 lakh crore is single black and Rs 1.5 lakh crore is double black. So, Rs 1.5 lakh crore is roughly 10 per cent of Rs 14 lakh crore. This is completely destroyed. On Single black – Rs 2.5 lakh crore – I think a large part of it will come back into the system. Of the remaining Rs 10 lakh crore, Rs 8 lakh crore is just probably transaction-related. This cash temporarily goes out of the system, but it eventually comes back into the system.

The remaining Rs 2 lakh crore is what the people were sitting on. This is not illegal. This Rs 2 lakh crore is unproductive for the people holding on to it and for the system. This comes into the system.

So, will the gains which were to accrue because of the normal monsoon after two consecutive years of drought be nullified, at least in Q3?

It is impossible to quantitatively answer that. We tend to exaggerate quantitative importance of several things. People talk of lack of financial inclusion, but all said and done, 600 million people in India have debit cards. Of this, 225 million cards are Jan Dhan kind of debit cards. So, a lot of people, including the poor ones, have debit cards but they don’t use these cards for transactions. They use the debit cards for withdrawals from ATM, nothing more. I will be extremely foolhardy to hazard a guess on your question.