Bharat Rakshak

Unconfirmed reports of Pak Wazir E Kharja SM Qureshi showing symptoms of Coronavirus & has self isolated himself. This comes after Pak delegation including President Alvi alongwith Qureshi visit to Corona hit China.

Why is the govt not invoking stricter rules for breaking quarantine? India should have been more aggressive in closing borders and should have taken a written pledge that they will abide by quarantine from these idiots before allowing them into India.

167 coronavirus suspected patients go missing in Ludhiana, reports ANI

At least 167 people suspected of having coronavirus have been missing in Ludhiana while only 29 have been traced, said Dr Rajesh Bagga, the city's civil surgeon.

Any reports on the latest numbers in India?

nam wrote:Any reports on the latest numbers in India?

https://www.mohfw.gov.in/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... says-china

Medical authorities in China have said a drug used in Japan to treat new strains of influenza appeared to be effective in coronavirus patients, Japanese media said on Wednesday.

Zhang Xinmin, an official at China’s science and technology ministry, said favipiravir, developed by a subsidiary of Fujifilm, had produced encouraging outcomes in clinical trials in Wuhan and Shenzhen involving 340 patients.

“It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment,” Zhang told reporters on Tuesday.
Patients who were given the medicine in Shenzhen turned negative for the virus after a median of four days after becoming positive, compared with a median of 11 days for those who were not treated with the drug, public broadcaster NHK said.

In addition, X-rays confirmed improvements in lung condition in about 91% of the patients who were treated with favipiravir, compared to 62% or those without the drug.

Can experts comment whether this is the drug used by China for their large scale fall in numbers?

A Chilling British Study Predicted 22 Lakh Coronavirus Deaths in US, 5 Lakh in UK
not sure of original source. this is from CNN IBN. interesting to check the assumptions as i feel this is exaggerated death numbers.

he modelling study, by a team led by Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, used new data gathered from Italy where the infectious disease epidemic has surged in recent weeks.
Comparing the potential impact of the COVID-19 disease epidemic with the devastating flu outbreak of 1918, Ferguson's team said that with no mitigating measures at all, the outbreak could have caused more than half a million deaths in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States.

Even with the government's previous plan to control the outbreak - which involved home isolation of suspect cases but did not include restrictions on wider society - could have resulted in 250,000 people dying "and health systems ... being overwhelmed many times over," the study said.

Tim Colbourn, an expert in global health epidemiology at University College London said the projections in the study signalled "tough times ahead".

"The results are sobering," he said.

https://twitter.com/CarolineCoramUK/sta ... 5495655429
WARNING PLEASE RT I’ve just received this: From an nhs colleague:

• We have just been sent a medical alert that no one is to use anti inflammatories (eg I brufen, Voltarol, naproxen and there are others) for pain or high temperature. Use paracetamol instead.
• There seems to be a link between severe cases of covid19 affecting young people with no underlying illnesses and taking anti inflammatories.
• The virus messes with the electrolyte balance in the body which is why you will see recommendations from Japan to maintain electrolyte balance in drinks. I am doing this for whole family as we have it. Imbalance affects kidneys and heart primarily. NSAIDs turn down the immunity

JAKARTA (REUTERS) - Indonesia announced on Wednesday (March 18) 55 new coronavirus cases, taking the total to 227 in the South-east Asian nation and marking the biggest daily rise in positive cases.

Mr Achmad Yurianto, a health ministry official, also told a news conference that the number of deaths from the disease rose to 19, with deaths recorded in seven different provinces, while 11 patients had recovered. More to come.

new update. The weather may not have effect on virus.

I don't think that it is reasonable to expect that the virus spread will be zero in warmer weather. A lot of places are airconditioned anyway.

However there is a good chance that it won't spread as fast in warmer weather as in Italy/Wuhan type weather, and if that is true, could still be very useful.

in UK several doctors have developed symptoms. They are being isolated but not being tested. There is persistent dry cough like mild ARDS.
it lasts for 5-10 days.
Britain's untested ice berg case load seems to be very high.

ricky_v wrote:The following image shows the incompetence of the who, not unrelated.

BR was ahead of the curve on this matter a few months back. Others are beginning to stir now but now it is too late:
https://thehill.com/opinion/internation ... r-pandemic

https://archive.is/ufDZK

The World Health Organization is considering "airborne precautions" for medical staff after a new study showed the coronavirus can survive in the air in some settings.
The virus is transmitted through droplets, or little bits of liquid, mostly through sneezing or coughing, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO's emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, told reporters during a virtual press conference on Monday. "When you do an aerosol-generating procedure like in a medical care facility, you have the possibility to what we call aerosolize these particles, which means they can stay in the air a little bit longer."

IndraD wrote:in UK several doctors have developed symptoms. They are being isolated but not being tested. There is persistent dry cough like mild ARDS.
it lasts for 5-10 days.
Britain's untested ice berg case load seems to be very high.

And yet people are going hammer and tongs at India for not testing all and sundry, ignoring the explanation and detailed strategy laid out by the ICMR.

based on italy cases, it took feb 23 - mar 10(17 days) to jump from 152 to 10000 cases.

As of now, we(India) had 152 total cases. We have to wait for next 2 weeks to see any big jump in the number. So following 15 days going to be very stressful for everyone.

My guess is, once the us, uk and india cases join the total count, the numbers will come down by may 1st after very large spike. The graphs will look crazy. In May, it will be entire new world. Everyone will start prepping for next wave in october and november. there will be more vaccine tests. the virus will also mutate by the time. it will be race against the time.

my guestimate figures,
India will see cases from 10000* to 80000+.
uk will be much more 50000+
us will have 30000+

the total global cases will touch lower bound 400000 to upper bound 600000

So we have to wait for next two weeks see how the numbers will fare. After that, we will have 5 months to prepare for the next wave assuming it will return in october.

{deleted}

*lower number because of the weather factor.

Guys again, no one knows what needs to be done and how this virus behaves. All the experts views are not even worth the paper they are written on. The only option is to control people to people contact and even that is not always effective.

More vaccine info

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12725690

Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) occurs when non-neutralizing antiviral proteins facilitate virus entry into host cells, leading to increased infectivity in the cells. Some cells do not have the usual receptors on their surfaces that viruses use to gain entry. The antiviral proteins (i.e., the antibodies) bind to antibody Fc receptors that some of these cells have in the plasma membrane. The viruses bind to the antigen binding site at the other end of the antibody. ADE is common in cells cultured in the laboratory, but rarely occurs in vivo except for dengue virus. This virus can use this mechanism to infect human macrophages, causing a normally mild viral infection to become life-threatening.[1]

Iran reports 1,192 new cases of coronavirus and 147 new deaths, raising total to 17,361 cases and 1,135 dead.

Spain reports 1,890 new cases of coronavirus and 25 new deaths, raising total to 13,716 cases and 533 dead.

276 Indians, including 255 in Iran, infected with #coronavirus abroad: Govt tells Lok Sabha.

Kerala has decided to open ‘corona care homes’ near all four international airports of the state to enable the state to curb the movement of travellers and help quarantine them effectively.

As per wiki, wuhan is in the same classification as the following diseases, positive single stranded rna virus.

West nile virus recognized-1937

Vaccine developed -No

MERS-Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus-2012

Vaccine developed -No

Rhinovirus-the common cold

Vaccine developed -No (too many variations)

SARS-2003

Vaccine developed -No

SARS-CoV-2

Vaccine to be developed in the next 6 months-100% percent.

sooraj wrote:Iran reports 1,192 new cases of coronavirus and 147 new deaths, raising total to 17,361 cases and 1,135 dead.

Spain reports 1,890 new cases of coronavirus and 25 new deaths, raising total to 13,716 cases and 533 dead.

276 Indians, including 255 in Iran, infected with #coronavirus abroad: Govt tells Lok Sabha.

Kerala has decided to open ‘corona care homes’ near all four international airports of the state to enable the state to curb the movement of travellers and help quarantine them effectively.

Too late. Anyway, all international inbound flights, especially the kind that ply to Kerala are stopped.

ricky_v wrote:As per wiki, wuhan is in the same classification as the following diseases, positive single stranded rna virus.

West nile virus recognized-1937

Vaccine developed -No

MERS-Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus-2012

Vaccine developed -No

Rhinovirus-the common cold

Vaccine developed -No (too many variations)

SARS-2003

Vaccine developed -No

SARS-CoV-2

Vaccine to be developed in the next 6 months-100% percent.

I don't know if you are being sarcastic or not, but none of those viruses wrecked the havoc corona virus is doing. This much effort hasn't been put into the other viruses. It may not be six months, but considering the extremely contagious nature of this virus and possibility of it lingering on for ever, a vaccine may be developed eventually.

I am being sarcastic, sir, look at the existing disease from the same family, i must add, heck no vaccine for sars for 17 years. Also look at the previous post of the presence of ADE in coronaviruses which is one of the major hindrances to vaccine development, basically the medics are unsure to how this behaves, controlling is a different matter entirely. Also, the who is provisioning for airborne threat, combined with ADE inherent in it, preparing a vaccine seems a difficult ask. But, i am not associated with the field just find it curious that so many of the same type are without vaccinations for so long.

Chennai reports second positive case for #COVID19. The patient hails from Delhi, is in isolation & stable. He is under the observation of expert team: Tamil Nadu Health Minister C. Vijayabaskar

is it first local case?

countries are depending on mathematical model for extrapolation: some like Iran are looking at staggering 100,000 deaths!

kvraghav wrote:Guys again, no one knows what needs to be done and how this virus behaves. All the experts views are not even worth the paper they are written on. The only option is to control people to people contact and even that is not always effective.

Governments around the world knows what needs to be done. It is just that it is very expensive and complete run down of the country.

Total Lockdown of a nation. No travel, in or out. Mass testing at massive pace, probably 5-10 times the pace of infection spread. Chase every case of infection and take them away from the society.

Disinfect the country. All this will reduce the infection run.

However all this will go for a toss, once the country opens up...

So there needs to be vaccine to be ready, before the country opens up.

same scientific advisor who peddled herd immunity for UK has got coronavirus

Finally UK closing all schools and entering lockdown after massive damage done

nam wrote:

kvraghav wrote:Guys again, no one knows what needs to be done and how this virus behaves. All the experts views are not even worth the paper they are written on. The only option is to control people to people contact and even that is not always effective.

Governments around the world knows what needs to be done. It is just that it is very expensive and complete run down of the country.

Total Lockdown of a nation. No travel, in or out. Mass testing at massive pace, probably 5-10 times the pace of infection spread. Chase every case of infection and take them away from the society.

Disinfect the country. All this will reduce the infection run.

However all this will go for a toss, once the country opens up...

So there needs to be vaccine to be ready, before the country opens up.

you nailed it.
In my reading this is why UK went the route of 'herd immunity', i.e. When they realized it was too expensive and would shut the country down. So they went this route....dumb beyond belief! UK's got no resources and this decision was a sign of that, IMHO.

The UK mathematician who predicted large numbers of deaths is not far off the mark, IMO. In an unguarded state, this thing will spread very easily. Chinese govt is doing a big disservice to the world by not releasing infection rates in Wuhan prior to lockdown. Italy situation gives a glimpse of that. The herd immunity plan (now cancelled, I think) UK would have provided the data at great cost to its citizens.

Your other point about how will a virus-free zine get back to normal isn't even being discussed.

About testing- I think a lot of cases may not be detected by it. Recall that China used a clinical CT-scan based method as a new criterion halfway through the epidemic and the numbers jumped up one fine day. Amber G. has a post pegging the test effectiveness at 66%. Cannot find it now.

IndraD wrote:Finally UK closing all schools and entering lockdown after massive damage done

Only Wales and Scotland, so far.

hanumadu wrote:Another POS son of a bureaucrat returns from England and does not go into quarantine. He might have infected his family and don't know how many others. His dad, the bureaucrat, attended office and if he has the virus, he must have infected some more too. How hard was it to go into isolation for a few days for that idiot.

He is the Rich Parents' Spoilt Brat (RPSB) son - actually his mother (not dad) Ms. Arunima Dey is the WBCS Special Officer in the sWB tate home ministry. His GF in London developed Covid-19, and so he returned home to Kolkata. He was suggested to self-quarantine for two weeks, but the RPSB went to the state secretariat, and took selfie with his mom, posted it on SM......

sooraj wrote:Firm Close to Developing 1st India-Made Coronavirus Test Kits, But ‘Govt Nod May Take 2-3 Weeks’

US is taking a different approach:

FDA opens the gates to commercial coronavirus testing without agency review

Here's the list of all District Health Officers in Karnataka for everyone’s reference,

#COVIDー19 samples will be collected in all District Govt. Hospitals.

Deleted

No thanks. This is the coronavirus resource thread. This is NOT the place to discuss potential world wars. Find yourself another place like face-kitab to peddle CTs.

sajo wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... says-china

Medical authorities in China have said a drug used in Japan to treat new strains of influenza appeared to be effective in coronavirus patients, Japanese media said on Wednesday.

Zhang Xinmin, an official at China’s science and technology ministry, said favipiravir, developed by a subsidiary of Fujifilm, had produced encouraging outcomes in clinical trials in Wuhan and Shenzhen involving 340 patients.

“It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment,” Zhang told reporters on Tuesday.
Patients who were given the medicine in Shenzhen turned negative for the virus after a median of four days after becoming positive, compared with a median of 11 days for those who were not treated with the drug, public broadcaster NHK said.

In addition, X-rays confirmed improvements in lung condition in about 91% of the patients who were treated with favipiravir, compared to 62% or those without the drug.

Can experts comment whether this is the drug used by China for their large scale fall in numbers?

efforts initiated to make it in India.
https://www.biospectrumindia.com/news/4 ... id-19.html
https://telanganatoday.com/anti-viral-d ... e-covid-19

Prodrug that gets converted to the ribosyl adduct. The electronics of the of the 6-membered ring pyrazine overlaps with that of the triazole on ribavirin which is a known rsv inhibitor. it is nice that we are building up a codex of known comppounds that can be used.

nam wrote:Any reports on the latest numbers in India?

use https://covidout.in/

they have a dashboard for India data.

deleted

Here is an interesting study: Hydroxychloroquinine and Azithromycin for treatment of COVID-19 I would reckon these are easily available drugs, aren't they?

Key point to summarize: This combination treatment reduced the viral load in 6 days! See this tweet


They are doing more, you can read it all here. I hope India also uses this opportunity to find out how effective these medicines are.

Interesting math wrt estimating case numbers in a given region. Simple and easy for non math geniuses like your truly. Based on the work by Thomas Pueyo

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca

https://youtu.be/mCa0JXEwDEk