Good posts Pulikeshi and Philip on page 62. I started writing this after I saw those posts - but got otherwise busy..
I was trying to parse the various issues at hand in a way in which it can be gamed. I have tried to put down the motivations of the 3 most important players (from an Indian standpoint) - i.e the US, Pakistan and India.
1) What is good for Pakistan?
I believe this may be a mixed bag, in that "what is good for the Pakistani people" is different from "what is good for the Pakistani army and leadership."
The army wants control over Afghanistan. They would ideally like to punish India in various ways to avenge their 1971 loss. Getting Kashmir, or keeping violence going in Kashmir or in India would all be "good" for the Pakistan army - but that "good" is secondary to its own survival and funding. Pakistani army survival and funding has come courtesy the US and to an unknown extent from Opium. But the latter is equal to "control of Afghanistan". Education and jobs for the Pakistani people would bleed the Pakistani army if they did not have enough recruits for jihad.
For the Pakistani people what is really needed is birth control, education and jobs. In the absence of education and jobs many are ripe for recruitment as anti-India jihadis. Here again the US is paramount. A "normal" state gets part of its funds from taxes. The Pakistani army/government does not enforce taxes on it people. Last time I checked - tax collections in Pakistan were abysmally low. This is useful for the people, and the Paki army survives on US bailouts. So US aid helps the Pakistani people to continue to be jobless and aimless potential jihad recruits.
2) What is good for the US?
The US has multiple concerns in the region. Having a foothold in the region has been a 50 year old affair for the US. Pakistan has served as a cold war ally and a listening post against both the FSU and China. US involvement in Pakistan was a key factor in the "winning" of the cold war. US involvement in Pakistan aided detente with China. US involvement in Pakistan is the key to US control of Afghanistan and the resources that may later have to flow via Afghanistan. US involvement in Pakistan is key to keeping Damocles sword hanging over Iran.
The US has too many interests in Pakistan to let Pakistan go. But it may use elements within Pakistan as the US has done in the past - both in Pakistan and in other nations (eg Shah of Iran).
Does the US want prosperity and development of the Pakistani people? Yes, but not at the cost of its own interests which are paramount.
Are the Pakistani people falling over themselves to work for the US? Not really. There are too many Pakis to pay off and a pro US population would have to be created by freebies and gifts that Pakis want. The US will not do that when it can buy off the army- the most powerful Paki group for a few billions. That pattern has been replicated in many other nations of the world.
Does the Pakistani army like the US? This is a stupid question. Do you like pork? But if you like pork then you don't like pigs because you have to kill the pig to eat pork no? You have to kill the pig to say you like it. So Pakis have to do dirty jobs for the US to get the US to give them what they want.
What does the Paki army want? Apart from a few millions to each individual, the Paki army wants leverage against India. that means control of Afghanistan is India is in there and control of Kashmir if possible, control of water supply and a suffering, bleeding India is possible. This is the Pakistani whore's price for sleeping with the US.
The US of course obliges the Pakistani army with every requirement in this regard except open verbal support. the US gives the money and the arms and has looks the other way wrt proliferation of nukes and missiles. In exchange the Paki army whore sleeps with the US and tries to leave the US in control of Afghanistan by allowing supplies to go via Pakistan. If the US is to leave Afghanistan, the Paki army wants control.
3) What does India want?
India wants
- Peace, prosperity and development
India keeps Kashmir and everything else
Peace with Pakistan
Peace and development in Afghanistan
Now let me check India's needs with what Pakistan and the US feel.
1) Peace, prosperity and development (of India)
a) The US is probably ambivalent about this. I am sure the US does not object to peace prosperity and development in India so long as none of these things affects its two bit whore the Pakistan army. Now the Pakistan army kicks up a ruckus about this so the US does a periodic arming of the Pakistan armed force. In effect peace and prosperity in India is secondary to the US's need for its two bit whore.
b) Pakistan. Pakistan has two constituencies.
One is a set of people of unknown size who probably do not care for constant conflict and are probably so fcued up that all they want to do is just get on with their lives it they could.This group probably have no direct opinion on India's peace development and prosperity. They may be a "usable" constituency for India - but that is a big "if". The second and well known constituency in Pakistan are those who want to bring India down - mainly the army and jihadis, but a whole lot of other supporters as well. It would be interesting to find out of the GoI has any information on the relative proportions of these two constituencies.
All in all it appears that peace in India and peace for India is dictated by Pakistan. The US merely tries to keep its whore happy because that is in the "interests of the US"
2) India keeps Kashmir and everything else:
Here again Pakistan is unhappy and the US will do whatever possible to keep Miss Gonorrhea Pakistani happy. But wresting Kashmir from India is more difficult than merely causing trouble in India. The US might not worry of Pakistan were to wrest Kashmir but would not say it openly The US probably would not worry about status quo either. Everything revolves around the happiness of the whore - but it is unlikely that the US can or will try to wrest Kashmir for its whore.
3) Peace with Pakistan.
I am certain that a reasonable large percentage of Pakistanis want peace. Some may want peace on their terms - ie India hands itself over to Paquis. But I think that many pakis would not object seriously to making peace with India. The Pakistani army does not want it. Peace with India is a threat that will cut off its supply of power, money and arms.
The US probably prefers India nd Pakistan to be at peace. Have you ever tried to make love to a dog that is snarling at someone in a neighbor's house? You may not want to do that but the US is certainly trying that with Pakistan its bitch. But there is more common ground here between the US and India than the other two points above.
4) Peace and development in Afghanistan. India wants this. The US wants this, but the Pakistan army wants control of Afghanistan. I believe that the Afghans do not want Paki control and that o\goes in favor of India, but Pakistan is sitting next door and is seen by the US as a key player so the US would be inclined to follow a Pakistani line as long as its global geopolitical aims are met in Afghanistan, whether it is ruled by Pakistan or anyone else.
Looking at all these points it appears to me that only the idea of peace with Pakistan has the greatest number of entities who will support it. Note that peace with Pakistan is not the same as peace for India (which is point no 1). Peace for India is not a given even if we have peace with Pakistan. Peace with Pakistan is supported by the US in the sense that India should not threaten or make war with Pakistan. If the whore-bitch is threatened the US will protect it. Pakis doing things (terrorism) against India is allowed.
In summary, I believe that the US has such a huge role in hemming in India's actions that India's long term goal can only be defeating US moves. But that is a long way off. In the short term we will have to make peace with Pakistan on terms that will be humiliating for us. But that will not be the end of things. There is a distant but tantalizing possibility that India can use an uneasy peace with Pakistan to wean away segments of the Paki population to become India supporters and opponents of what the US is doing. The US is generally disliked anyway. But that is thinking too far ahead for this post.
Sorry it became so long.