AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

LakshO · Post by **LakshO** » 12 Dec 2013 06:32

Muppalla wrote:
Party managers conceded the possibility of being walloped in both parts of the state, and said that risk will multiply in case BJP, TDP and Telangana Rashtra Samiti forge an alliance.

A richly deserved wallop, IMHO

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 12 Dec 2013 06:46

LakshO wrote:
Rony wrote:IBTL ‏@IndiaBTL 16h

Prediction for 42 seats of Andhra Pradesh

BJP 2 (+2)
Congress 3 (-30)
TDP 18 (+12)
TRS 10 (+8)
YSRC 8 (+8)
MIM 1 (0)

Total Rout for Congress
I will be glad if LS results in 42 seats of united AP will along above lines but TDP will get 10 more than YSRCP? I think YSRCP will be the most dominant in rest of AP (18-20) and TDP will end up with (5-6 seats).

But I like the idea of totally decimated Cong(I)

Huh? Beyond Kurnool, Nellore, western Prakasam, and mainly Kadapa, YSRC power wanes. Where can he get seats from Guntur and above coastal districts?

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 12 Dec 2013 09:20

LakshO wrote:I will be glad if LS results in 42 seats of united AP will along above lines but TDP will get 10 more than YSRCP? I think YSRCP will be the most dominant in rest of AP (18-20) and TDP will end up with (5-6 seats).

But I like the idea of totally decimated Cong(I)

Just look at the concluded local body polls. Despite in power Congress had relegated to #2 position. Despite money rivers, YSRCP ended up with #3.

No doubt, Jagan is hogging national headlines (for being B-Team of Cong) and his rallies are full of people (paid people moving along with rallies), there are open talk about TRS-Cong-YSRCP triangulate alliance. People are talking about CBN' contribution and his abilities to steer away from T mess.

Despite positive talk on CBN and negative whispering about Jagan, CBN may not sweep, but he will get biggest party status.

LakshO · Post by **LakshO** » 12 Dec 2013 13:35

ShyamSP wrote: Huh? Beyond Kurnool, Nellore, western Prakasam, and mainly Kadapa, YSRC power wanes. Where can he get seats from Guntur and above coastal districts?

My impression is that YSRCP will sweep all of Rayalaseema (Kurnool, Kadapa, Anantapuram, Chitoor) as they see him as wronged. And, he may win in coastal districts (perhaps 50-60% of seats, rest go to TDP).

How ironical that the only votary of united AP is a crook with multiple court cases against him

KKR and other CongI MLAs/ministers also bat for united AP but they have no credibility in eyes of the people.

For AP's sake, I hope CBN & TDP make good in this election. Padi samvatsarala CongI prabhutvam rashtranni bhrashttu pattichindi

(ten years of CongI rule has ruined the state).

LakshO · Post by **LakshO** » 12 Dec 2013 13:43

kmkraoind wrote: Just look at the concluded local body polls. Despite in power Congress had relegated to #2 position. Despite money rivers, YSRCP ended up with #3.

No doubt, Jagan is hogging national headlines (for being B-Team of Cong) and his rallies are full of people (paid people moving along with rallies), there are open talk about TRS-Cong-YSRCP triangulate alliance. People are talking about CBN' contribution and his abilities to steer away from T mess.

Despite positive talk on CBN and negative whispering about Jagan, CBN may not sweep, but he will get biggest party status.

You are referring to the panchayat polls, right? Will the results at village level translate to the assembly constituency level? I don't know, let us see.

Prior to CWC's T announcement in July, CBN's padayatra recd good coverage and also his initiative in trying to help AP people in Uttarakhand tragedy was well recd by the public. As you said, hopefully, CBN & TDP will be the biggest party in AP.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 12 Dec 2013 13:45

Rony wrote:
IBTL ‏@IndiaBTL 16h

Prediction for 42 seats of Andhra Pradesh

BJP 2 (+2)
Congress 3 (-30)
TDP 18 (+12)
TRS 10 (+8)
YSRC 8 (+8)
MIM 1 (0)

Total Rout for Congress

I think BJP and TRS predictions seem very optimistic. I would say that
BJP 0
Congress 5
TDP 22
TRS 7
YSRC 7
MIM 1 (0)

Now that its quite clear that T is not going to be formed before elections, TRS is not going to benefit much. TDP has already started its attacks on KCR asking him for his contributions to T. Already, KCR and YSRC are perceived as the B-teams of Antonio.

In state elections, it will be a more direct contest between YSRC and TDP. And ironically, I think TDP will be at advantage because of T. I think T will vote to TDP in state elections totally.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 12 Dec 2013 20:23

In the resent Panchayath election cbn 1 mafia 2 trs and Jagan gang 3 with 2 dist each. Now mafia will lose 25 seats in full. Out of 17 mafia will not have trs support and tdp votes will not be divided. Further every one knows Jagan is mafia man. Anti mafia votes has to go to Babu only. I feel he will be 25 seats at least. If bjp tdp joins then even if state is divided mafia and trs may not get much as tdp continue to be strong in t areas also.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Dec 2013 21:57

LakshO. All the AP INC members are crooks of the family. they keep the treasure and cycle it along. Since the early 1960s every Congress scam has a Telugu face associated.(PVR's 1990 economic reforms allowed them to bring their cut (just as others) back and 'invest' in India!

YSR difference was instead of keeping customary 3-5% he kept much more and got accidented.

So lets keep all this in mind.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 12 Dec 2013 22:15

johneeG wrote: Now that its quite clear that T is not going to be formed before elections, TRS is not going to benefit much. TDP has already started its attacks on KCR asking him for his contributions to T. Already, KCR and YSRC are perceived as the B-teams of Antonio.

How are you so clear that T is not formed before elections? The bill is hand delivered via special aircraft to AP assembly. All it needs is an introduction and waste the next six weeks. Without the need of BJP or TMC or SP the INC at centre has numbers. What will stop INC to pass the bill. Lagadapati and Rayapati are a bunch of jokers anyway and their no-confidence is just a fizzle. The INC has budget session as well.

In summary this whole thing is now to wire and is being held to ransom using procedural wrangles and I think INC will overcome. This is a do-or-die battle. Overall INC is not even getting to 90 seats. If Maha, Telangana and Kerala falls there is nothing there for INC.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 12 Dec 2013 22:48

Muppalla wrote:The bill is hand delivered via special aircraft to AP assembly.

Military/Colonial style operation - Special plane, special secretary flew to do hand delivery, and an emissary (Diggy Raja) to horse-trade the subjects.

Whole things on T that Congress is doing recently made this ex-CM mighty pissed.

Chandrababu fire on Centeral govt
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pK-y6KYvYs

LakshO · Post by **LakshO** » 12 Dec 2013 23:03

Muppalla wrote: Without the need of BJP or TMC or SP the INC at centre has numbers.

To split an existing state, the constitution needs to be amended with 2/3 of approval. For this, CongI needs all the help it can muster from UPA allies and reach out to the BJP too. When CongI proposed Rayala Telangana, BJP refused to support it. CongI had to drop it and back track to Telangana with 10 districts with Hyderabad as capital.

Muppalla wrote: Lagadapati and Rayapati are a bunch of jokers anyway and their no-confidence is just a fizzle. The INC has budget session as well.

AP sent the largest number of CongI MPs to the current LS. Not just Lagadapati and Rayapati, I don't think there is one single MP who can stand up for AP interests. In a way, AP deserves this treatment for electing these clowns/jokers/buffoons. Dilli lo Andhra rashtram ante alusu ayyindi

Budget session may see only vote-on-account budget. Is the govt allowed to take up such a serious legislation when LS term is about to expire?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 13 Dec 2013 00:30

johneeG garu,

if your prediction is right and they get >20 LS seats, then TDP will have effectively resurrected itself from the ashes. I don't think it will happen.
but let's wait and see.

I think any indication of that and INC will cut off any proposal for bifurcation. declare coalition with YSRCP. and in the process, blackmail at least a few TDP guys to defect. we haven't seen the last of INC's perfidy. more is yet to come.

on the same note, have you thought out what will be the future course of AP if BJP now ties up with TDP?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 13 Dec 2013 00:33

ramana wrote: BTW PVNR shone in the national scene as AP was too small for his talents.

it is when you post stuff like this that I really wonder if you think we all swallow everything you say without putting our brains to it?

there was a nice long gap of 20 years between PV getting booted out of AP and becoming PM. so, was this all some grand "chankian" plan to put a "telugu bidda" as PM?
don't answer that. for all I know, you might just say "yes" to that rhetorical question.

PV got booted for one simple reason. he went against the interests of the feudal elites of Kosta, and they foisted their "jai andhra" on him as a cynical and opportunistic ploy.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 13 Dec 2013 01:10

Muppalla wrote:
johneeG wrote: Now that its quite clear that T is not going to be formed before elections, TRS is not going to benefit much. TDP has already started its attacks on KCR asking him for his contributions to T. Already, KCR and YSRC are perceived as the B-teams of Antonio.
How are you so clear that T is not formed before elections? The bill is hand delivered via special aircraft to AP assembly. All it needs is an introduction and waste the next six weeks. Without the need of BJP or TMC or SP the INC at centre has numbers. What will stop INC to pass the bill. Lagadapati and Rayapati are a bunch of jokers anyway and their no-confidence is just a fizzle. The INC has budget session as well.

In summary this whole thing is now to wire and is being held to ransom using procedural wrangles and I think INC will overcome. This is a do-or-die battle. Overall INC is not even getting to 90 seats. If Maha, Telangana and Kerala falls there is nothing there for INC.

I too think it is clear that Telangana would not be formed.

The game is to let Kiran Kumar Reddy and Jagan Mohan Reddy get the laurels for stopping the bifurcation, possibly at the Assembly level itself.

Sonia wants to be Telangana Amma, who did her "very best" but couldn't succeed against "entrenched SeemaAndhra interests" in giving Telangana independence!

Sonia wants to give KKR and Jagan as big a boost as possible going into the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. With her Telangana approval, she has already given Telangana Congress a sufficient push. It only needs to look convincing to the people.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 13 Dec 2013 01:21

RajeshA wrote: I too think it is clear that Telangana would not be formed.

The game is to let Kiran Kumar Reddy and Jagan Mohan Reddy get the laurels for stopping the bifurcation, possibly at the Assembly level itself.

Sonia wants to be Telangana Amma, who did her "very best" but couldn't succeed against "entrenched SeemaAndhra interests" in giving Telangana independence!

Sonia wants to give KKR and Jagan as big a boost as possible going into the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. With her Telangana approval, she has already given Telangana Congress a sufficient push. It only needs to look convincing to the people.

There is no positivity for congress either in T or SA regions. This kind of martyr role will just not work at all for the dynasty any more. The only thing to get an extra boost is by taking the plunge and creating T and then merging TRS into INC. If this plan gets changed even a bit the game for INC is over.

gpati · Post by **gpati** » 13 Dec 2013 01:58

CBN is going to attend Vasundhara Raje'S swear in ceremony. BJP-TDP alliance may be announced after that.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 13 Dec 2013 02:20

Muppalla wrote:
RajeshA wrote: I too think it is clear that Telangana would not be formed.

The game is to let Kiran Kumar Reddy and Jagan Mohan Reddy get the laurels for stopping the bifurcation, possibly at the Assembly level itself.

Sonia wants to be Telangana Amma, who did her "very best" but couldn't succeed against "entrenched SeemaAndhra interests" in giving Telangana independence!

Sonia wants to give KKR and Jagan as big a boost as possible going into the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. With her Telangana approval, she has already given Telangana Congress a sufficient push. It only needs to look convincing to the people.
There is no positivity for congress either in T or SA regions. This kind of martyr role will just not work at all for the dynasty any more. The only thing to get an extra boost is by taking the plunge and creating T and then merging TRS into INC. If this plan gets changed even a bit the game for INC is over.

Sonia is already into diversification. Congress is not her only vehicle of power and control. YSRCP and KKR Congress still belongs to her, even if publicly they are completely in opposition to her. We should start thinking of Sonia's and Congress's interests separately.

She has found out that according to the current political environment, the best way to attain credibility is by opposing the dynasty. That is the lesson she has learned from NaMo. She wants her own subsidiaries to occupy this political space. We will be seeing several new parties - YSRCP, AAP, KKR Congress, etc. going hammer and tongs at the dynasty personally, even using slogans that Narendra Modi has been using to attack the dynasty, perhaps using even more vitriol. All that doesn't mean they are not acting on Sonia's behalf.

Just as an example I heard murmurs, or rather tweets, of Kumar Vishwas of Aam Aadmi Party being pitted against Rahul Gandhi from Amethi and that he too has used "Shehzade" to refer to Rahul Gandhi. It means AAP is going to use anti-Dynasty sentiment to the maximum to get votes, but it is also clear that AAP is an outfit having the blessings of the Dynasty.

It is the same case in Andhra. Dynasty doesn't mind their people winning political space even if they are not Congress and even if they have to attack the Dynasty directly to win it. Attacking the Dynasty directly is somehow considered a badge of political credibility as being against Congress and Dynasty, so why not let your people use it. The more the Dynasty projects itself as being against SeemaAndhra interests, the more it is possible for Jagan and KKR to earn street cred by attacking the dynasty within limits of credibility.

So Anti-Congress sentiment among former Congressmen, among SeemaAndhra Congressmen, does not say anything about whether they are with Sonia or against her. Anti-Congress sentiment among SeemaAndhra people also does not say anything about whether they would be able to judge correctly or not whether they are strengthening or weakening Sonia during voting.

We need to think of Sonia's and Congress's interests separately.

JMTs

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Dec 2013 02:43

During the run-up to Independence the British propped up their puppets in West Punjab to even slap the Police Superintendent who was ordered to take the slap!!!*

"Breaking the Curfew" Emma Duncan.

The politician was afraid he would be shot and was assured by the Governor that the said official was already told to take the insult in order to rise the street credentials of their puppets.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 13 Dec 2013 03:33

BJP and TDP might be good for short term national-scenario. but if BJP isn't careful this time around, TDP will again use them like a cond** and throw it off.
hopefully, BJP will be wiser this time. also, if the alliance with TDP goes through, then AP BJP leadership will have to change.
Kishan Reddy doesn't have the material to build BJP in Kosta. some other people will need to be brought in.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 13 Dec 2013 05:44

Rajeshji,

I can give you much more hilarious proposition. How about Namo being placed as a mole in BJP so that Sonia can happily retire in Italy. She is deliberately asking Namo to attack mafia and get votes so that she is protected from both sides as all congress A,B and C teams are already in her pocket. With BJP in her pocket, she is assured that no matter who comes to power, her interests are protected. How did she do it? She got all secrets of Namo and had a secret arrangement with him that as long as he protects her, he can do whatever he wants. Otherwise, she will open the file.

Seriously, for whatever reason, one of the fashionable things in this forum is to try to abstract things at 30000 foot level and get completely blinded in what is happening on the ground.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 13 Dec 2013 05:56

gpati wrote:CBN is going to attend Vasundhara Raje'S swear in ceremony. BJP-TDP alliance may be announced after that.

For both BJP national leadership and TDP, the biggest hurdle to scale is BJP telangana unit. Any kind of alignment with TDP will get similar reaction from BJP T unit like that of those six SA congress MPs against Congress govt. Also if the division bill is placed in Parliament and BJP votes in favor of it, it will be suicidal for TDP to align with BJP.

Added later: The reverse will also be true. If BJP and TDP are aligned, Congress will force a division immediately and try to discredit TDP in SA. It would be a severe blow to TDP for aligning with a party that voted in favor of division.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 13 Dec 2013 06:45

By and large mafia will be beaten black and blue 42 seats irrespective of division. Mafia became weak and people are not so keen to vote to mafia.

Why would people vote on the sole factor of T sentiment. Corruption, price raise etc are equally effect Telugu fellows. We may see a hammering just like 4 zero result.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 13 Dec 2013 06:55

Narayana Rao wrote:By and large mafia will be beaten black and blue 42 seats irrespective of division. Mafia became weak and people are not so keen to vote to mafia.

Why would people vote on the sole factor of T sentiment. Corruption, price raise etc are equally effect Telugu fellows. We may see a hammering just like 4 zero result.

Probably that is the reason why they gave deadline until Jan 23. as you eluded, if the division happens now, its impact is lost as people's attention is diverted to real life issues. So it is in their interest to prolong it until Feb. However, if the division doesn't happen this year (the most likely scenario), it is hard to imagine how BJP will support it 3 months before election.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 13 Dec 2013 09:45

Breaking: CBNs visit to Jaipur cancelled.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 13 Dec 2013 09:47

If the division does not happen in Jan there is no division in this term. AP will again go to poll on a single issue and that will be a disaster with no national issues or Modi wave will affect AP.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 13 Dec 2013 10:19

Altair wrote:Breaking: CBNs visit to Jaipur cancelled.

people who are in the know about internal TDP dynamics should use this opportunity to really probe who was whispering in CBN's ear about cancelling this visit. that will indicate exactly what network of assets was used to influence CBN and prevent this public show of support to BJP.

there is something wrong with CBN. for several years now, at every step of the way, he has wasted every opportunity to patch up with BJP is a significant way. showing up at Vasundhara's swearing-in ceremony after she just landed INC the drubbing of their history would have been a very solid step in that direction.

we cannot seriously believe that it has anything to do with the T-bill just coming to assembly. this is not the early 20th century. he can show up in Jaipur and return back in a matter of 12 hours. there are these things called airplanes.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 13 Dec 2013 10:22

Sometimes I wonder… will God ever forgive us for what we’ve done to each other? Then I look around and I realize… God left this place a long time ago.
-Danny Archer
Leonardo DiCaprio – Blood Diamond (2006)

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 13 Dec 2013 10:43

There are few convincing theories about the motivation of mafia to break AP(I read RajeshAs blog too). They seem convincing at first but they are not exactly fool proof. We are yet to convince ourselves to a solid theory about the real hands behind AP bifurcation.
Who is actually pushing KCR? If Sonia is not pushing KCR,What does KCR have that Sonia is afraid off?
KCR was quiet during YSRs regime. Why after YSRs death did he raise this issue? Why not earlier?
If YSR had something against KCR to keep him quiet, why is it not the case with Sonia?
Was YSR the only obstacle to AP Bifurcation? Did Bifurcation issue came to YSRs table before his death? How did he respond then?
What does CBN know. He is behaving creepier day by day.
Our dismal failure to put the pieces of this puzzle called AP Bifurcation is because we do not have all the pieces of it. We must find all the hidden pieces and put it together.

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 13 Dec 2013 11:15

Altair wrote:Breaking: CBNs visit to Jaipur cancelled.

If true, that's a good thing. BJP is blindly supporting CongI on the T-issue. TDP can only lose more by associating with BJP -- unless BJP takes a more balanced stand on AP bifurcation.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 13 Dec 2013 11:19

a_bharat wrote:
Altair wrote:Breaking: CBNs visit to Jaipur cancelled.
If true, that's a good thing. BJP is blindly supporting CongI on the T-issue. TDP can only lose more by associating with BJP -- unless BJP takes a more balanced stand on AP bifurcation.

I get the feeling that BJP is not too keen on the bifurcation but is uneasy about the backlash if it backs out now.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 13 Dec 2013 11:38

chetak wrote: I get the feeling that BJP is not too keen on the bifurcation but is uneasy about the backlash if it backs out now.

There is one good outcome out of this. No future government not even Congress will attempt new state creation atleast not in the near future. Burnt hands teach better lessons.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Dec 2013 11:48

If BJP has no MPs/MLAs in AP then what backlash it fears??

gpati · Post by **gpati** » 13 Dec 2013 12:27

devesh wrote:there is something wrong with CBN.

Devesh garu, CBN wants to play safe and TDP is not equipped to face long term threats. It should be allowed to disintegrate and if it breaks up, Telangana TDP will merge with BJP. My opinion is that BJP will not make inroads into east coast including coastal Andhra. Only radical ideas/ideologies have traction in east coast from Bengal to Kerala. Very likely, coastal TDP will transform (or joins) into a pan national radical Hindutva (some thing like Savarkar's brand of Hindiusm) political outfit encompassing entire east coast.

One of CBN's college classmate and close friend told me how he rose to power. For fun, it goes like this. During college days, CBN's classmates were not happy with the incumbent college student president. So they made CBN to contest in the student elections and worked hard for him to win the election. It got attention of a local Congress leader who thought CBN would make a good match for his daughter. So, he helped CBN to rise through mid level ranks of Congress. Then it got attention of an ex-mla or some other higher up who thought CBN would make a good match for his daughter. So, he got CBN the MLA ticket and CBN won the election. Again some other very higher up thought CBN would make a good match for his daughter and got him the minister post. Finally, NTR thought CBN would make a good match for his daughter and made him the CM.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 13 Dec 2013 12:38

Altair wrote:There are few convincing theories about the motivation of mafia to break AP(I read RajeshAs blog too). They seem convincing at first but they are not exactly fool proof. We are yet to convince ourselves to a solid theory about the real hands behind AP bifurcation.
Who is actually pushing KCR? If Sonia is not pushing KCR,What does KCR have that Sonia is afraid off?
KCR was quiet during YSRs regime. Why after YSRs death did he raise this issue? Why not earlier?
If YSR had something against KCR to keep him quiet, why is it not the case with Sonia?
Was YSR the only obstacle to AP Bifurcation? Did Bifurcation issue came to YSRs table before his death? How did he respond then?
What does CBN know. He is behaving creepier day by day.
Our dismal failure to put the pieces of this puzzle called AP Bifurcation is because we do not have all the pieces of it. We must find all the hidden pieces and put it together.

It was YSR who raked up this whole T issue when he was in opposition because he was desperate at that time.

Altair saar,
the first thing understand is that the motivations of the different players are also constantly evolving as the situation keeps changing, so the motivations are also not fixed. Thats why, sometimes it can get bit complicated to understand.

Here is my understanding of what happened:
I think the first plan was to create small states to cut down the states and put all the power into center's hands. Both kongis and lotus dilli billis were happy with the plan. AP was just supposed to be the start. After that many more states(UP being one prominent one) were to be followed. AP was the first language state, its division would end the days of language states and open the flood gates for the division of all other states. This is a more long term plan. At that time, kongis were confident that NaMo will be stopped by the BJP dilli billis.

About the timing:
Yesu Reddy's death was followed by his son's ambitious maneuvering. Gajan felt that he should be the CM. As others have already explained, there were several projects that were in loop and not having power would jeopardise all of them. So, he was desperate for power. But, it seems the dilli kongis were not happy with this kind of entitlement attitude. They thought that Gajan should prove his loyalty to 'high command' for sometime by being out of power. But, Gajan was unrelenting. Eventually, it became a clash of egos.

To teach a lesson to Gajan and also cut down CBN to size, kongis started the game of T. They first told KCR to go ahead with some fast, they made a big deal out of it and then made the announcement. This announcement was completely unexpected because the situation was in no way really as serious as the kongis made it out to be. Infact, the whole thing would have fizzled out easily especially if the dilli kongis themselves wanted.

Pranab was against this and therefore this announcement was made when he was away. It was said that he was angry with this decision. Chidu, on the other hand, some say, was happy to cut down the Thelugu guys to size.(I don't think it is a CT. Because look at the people who have been roped in to divide AP. Most of them are from other southern states: Kerala, TN, KT and Maha. This is one of the specialties of the kongis that they use one state against the other). Pranab was against it because ultimately it would mean division of Bengal also because as I have said, AP is only the start.

Realistically, the kongis did not expect the resistance from the people and were taken back by the spate of resignations. They tried to ram it down but failed. Later, Chidu himself came backtracked.

Some say that it was the idea of the pappu to do division of UP to revive kongis in UP. Remember, pappu was the incharge of UP kongis at that time. After this game, Maya wanted to do one up on the kongis and passed the division of UP in UP assembly.

After that the kongis realized that CBN was on back foot due to the T issue. So, they kept boiling the pot without doing anything on it to stop the TDP from reviving one way or the other. Whenever, TDP tried to corner the kongis, T issue would be brought out and everything would get distracted. At this stage, the whole thing was shelved more or less.

Then, NaMo's visit to Hyd was scheduled. There were reports that he would travel extensively in T areas. This sent jitters in the kongi high command. They were afraid that NaMo would take up T separation issue and try to win seats in T area. Internally, there were reports within the kongis that the situation in T is hopeless for the kongis. The situation was comparatively better in coastal areas.

So, kongis hatched a mega plan. They released Gajan and then made a pro-T separation stance. The fact that someone who is considered an attackdog with low cred like diggy was made the kongi face should tell people that the kongis were portraying themselves as bad cop. The attempt was to steer the pro-united votes towards Gajan and then use the CBI on him to get his support after elections. Meanwhile, in T regions, kongis would portray themselves as the champs.

KCR was not taken on board. Infact, there was pressure on him that if the T is formed then he would have to merge his party into the kongis. So, KCR played the spoilsport by giving a warning to settlers from Coastal and Seema regions. He is a veteran politician and very well knows what will be the effect of such a statement. It had intended effect: the govt employees from coastal and seema used it to create a movement. This movement then connected to the largescale unrest in the coastal and seema regions.

TDP was in a limbo at this stage. It was caught off-guard. It did not expect the kongis to come up with T proposal. Then, NaMo came to Hyd, he tried to play more equidistant from the issue. He supported T division but also tried to convey that he was not against the Coastal and Seema areas. To me, it seems like NaMo was trying to slowly change the lotus stance. On the other hand, someone like Sushi aunty has heavily invested in separate T issue. NaMo also sent feelers to TDP when he was in Hyd.

Then, TDP slowly recovered after a week and then started attacking the kongi plan as ill-thought out. They accused both KCR and Gajan of being kongi Bs. Meanwhile, it was becoming more and more clear that CBN was going to ally with NaMo.

Then, Sushi Aunty tried to jeopardize the whole thing by insistent on separation. At that stage, such a stand by lotus was only going to embarrass CBN who was trying to position himself as against the separation. Meanwhile, some of the local lotus guys have their own motivations. They see that any link up with TDP is not in their favor, so they want to scuttle the whole thing. To do that, they keep attacking TDP.

But there is one problem for the kongis: the Gajan is not as popular as previously thought. He is unable to win as many. And KCR seems to be reluctant to join up the kongis. Because at this stage, kongis are just a liability to anyone. Also, KCR himself may not be as popular as he is being projected. And the major problem is that the opposition to the separation decision in coastal and seema areas is just not abating. They thought that it would fizzle out in a week. But, it just didn't. And the pressure on local kongis was too much.

Meanwhile, the CM was not ready to become the guy under whom the AP split. He didn't want the ignominy. Then, kongis come up with a new plan: if Gajan can't become the champ of united AP, then make KKR the champ of united AP. For that, it has to be showed that it is KKR who stopped the AP division.

All sorts of theories are floated into the air by the kongis to test the people's reaction. It is just media circus.

Kongis themselves burnt down their party in coastal and seema region in their 'tactically brilliant' plan. All this desperation is because the kongis are not even reaching 100 seats in the country. And they know that if they get below 100, the kongi party is finished once and for all. All regional satrap will form their own mini version of kongi and will ditch the dynasty.

----
Muppalla saar,
the separation seems unlikely to me because the kongis don't have numbers in Lok Sabha. Infact, there is a real danger of the sarkaar falling anytime. Thats why no meaningful decisions are going to be taken in this session of parliament.

----
Devesh saar,
TDP has two streaks:
a) leftist
b) Hindhuthva.
It is best seen in the way NTR started his party campaign. He used to either wear Saffron or wear the khakhi. Either the leftists or the Hindhuthva. TDP also has allied with either the left or the BJP. So, there are two streaks in TDP. In a way, TDP is a microcosmic portrayal of certain influential sections within AP. They have both the streaks: Hindhuthva and Left. They oscillate between the two. Jumping from one end of the spectrum to the other.

Right now, it is poised to jump towards the Hindhuthva end(both TDP and Thelugu society). So, BJP can make inroads if it plays its cards right. But, for that BJP should stop being a kongi B and start with its independent position(which is Hindhuthva). An overt, no-compromising Hindhuthva stand on local issues is going to win lot of supporters for BJP in AP right now. Its upto BJP to do that. If it can't do that, there is no point in blaming TDP.

TDP capitalized on BJP's help. I would say that TDP and CBN won due to the alliance with Vajpayee during Kargil war. If it were not for that war, both BJP and TDP could have been in danger. In the next election, both of them were routed. And both of them made the same mistake. They continued with the leadership that failed. BJP made amends and is now garnering results under the new leadership of NaMo. Ideally, TDP should have done the same.

TDP or CBN blaming BJP for its loss is the height of silliness. It was just to escape the accountability. It was CBN's failure that TDP lost. He lost because he neglected several issues and thought only Ity-Vity would be enough. That allowed Yesu Reddy to make a comeback by promising all sorts of things for people. The second time, CBN made a mistake by allying with TRS. At that time also, TRS' popularity was over-rated. It did not win as many seats as it was expected. This hurt TDP's chances. And in coastal region, Chiru hurt the TDP's chances. And TDP got burnt in Lok Sabha because Yesu Reddy declared that if a new state is formed people will need visas and positioned himself as the only one saving the unity of AP.

Basically, CBN has been played by the kongis. Its the failure of CBN that he is unable to tackle the games of kongis. A change in leadership would have allowed the TDP to come fresh before people without all the past mud. But, CBN did not allow any second rung leadership to grow out of fear. In a way, people like Nagam or Devender tried to form new parties because they realized that their potential for growth within the TDP was limited. Ultimately, their failure also shows that T-issue is not as big as it is being made out to be.

All the media hype may have given it some strength, but I still think that regular issues like inflation, corruption and governance are going to be the real issues in T region. Thats one reason why the Kongis are doing so much media circus to distract the people. I think separation is going to be a big issue in Coastal and Seema regions. It is not going to be the major election issue in T region.

As for CBN:
He is not equipped to be a leader. He does not have any basic ideology. This makes him keep flip-flopping on almost all issues. One can see this clearly when he is contrasted with someone like NaMo. NaMo has some idea and he has not compromised on them. CBN has no such idea. On every issue, he has changed his stance which means he is very unreliable. And most people read him as unreliable.

If CBN had called the bluff of the kongis on T early itself, by now the issue would have resolved. It height of comedy that someone whose party's raison d'etre is Thelugu-Dhesham, how can they support division of AP? Frankly, no one in T believes that TDP supports separation. So, why hang to that stand? Why not take a principled stand and face the music? Why such cowardice? And if you are sincerely in favor of division, then why not take that stand atleast? This flip-flopping cowardly opposition suits the kongis very well.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 13 Dec 2013 13:02

^ Good explanation johneeG but still doesnt tell who benefits now?

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 13 Dec 2013 13:17

Altair wrote:^ Good explanation johneeG but still doesnt tell who benefits now?

Saar,
no one is really in control. Everyone is just trying to get most of the situation. One thing is that if they had started with the division of other states, they would have succeeded by now. For example, UP has already passed the separation bill in assembly. AP's division is most difficult because it is protected by the constitution and therefore requires amendment. So, the immediate effect seems to be the stalling of small states.

But, after sometime, the division of UP may come back on the fore. It may also force lotus to rethink on its strategy of support for small states.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 13 Dec 2013 13:25

gpati garu, thanks for reply.

my own feeling is that this division does not fundamentally alter the dynamics of the entire region. what it will do is take out some of the grievances on the Telangana side. on the Kosta side, the grievance will be that they lost Hyderabad. honestly, this is pretty much the only point of contention. HYDERABAD.

but one thing is for sure, in post-bifurcation Telangana, the game of the Ashrafs-Hindu-ex-feudals will be up. there will be a section within the "elites" who has remained marginalized for at least a few generations now. yes, there is such a section within the Telangana elites (more so with the R's than the V's). this section will smell out exactly which other parts of society are willing to take on the corrupt and compromised elites.

this entire process will play out over the next 10 years. if Telangana happens, then that is how things will proceed.

if Telangana doesn't happen, then new scenario will be different. I still consider this a possibility. I've told my friends and family back home that they should be prepared for either possibility. and I reiterate that point here. we should be prepared for T happening, and also not happening. If T happens, things get simplified in T and they will head to some kind of a conflict within the next 5-6 year time-frame. if current AP continues, then it's important for the compromised elites to all join hands visibly. and more importantly, for the marginalized section of the elites will start seeing opportunities. that's what we have to wait for. I suspect that at the end of the day there are many of us who will jump in and contribute. my own inner feeling is if AP continues, I will still do my best to play my part towards a future where AP is not hostage to "vacuum" ideologies like that of INC or TDP. I want AP to be an active contributor on the national stage, not of the INC type, and not remain hostage to "telugu vari atma gauravam". that sentiment was useful to garner the anti-INC voters' imagination in the last decades of the 20th century. INC is no longer what it once was. India is no longer the same as it was in 1980. there are new threats. new challenges. and a new society to build.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 13 Dec 2013 13:28

there remains another possibility. what if this division can be transformed into a temporary "break" that neutralizes some of the infections festering from generations ago. eventual joining back cannot be ruled out. societies transform. people change. more importantly, political and social paradigms can change with powerful ideas taking shape into reality.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 13 Dec 2013 13:31

gpati wrote:
devesh wrote:there is something wrong with CBN.
Devesh garu, CBN wants to play safe and TDP is not equipped to face long term threats. It should be allowed to disintegrate and if it breaks up, Telangana TDP will merge with BJP. My opinion is that BJP will not make inroads into east coast including coastal Andhra. Only radical ideas/ideologies have traction in east coast from Bengal to Kerala. Very likely, coastal TDP will transform (or joins) into a pan national radical Hindutva (some thing like Savarkar's brand of Hindiusm) political outfit encompassing entire east coast.

when that day comes, we will move as one. march as one. there is no doubt about that in my mind. anything else is a crime. and if there are people in T who oppose, they will simply paint a bull's eye on their back. and show their true colors. just as the same will be the case on the Kosta side. during powerful times, people are forced to make a choice. their choices reveal them. and their past histories.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 13 Dec 2013 16:12

Dasari wrote:Rajeshji,

I can give you much more hilarious proposition. How about Namo being placed as a mole in BJP so that Sonia can happily retire in Italy. She is deliberately asking Namo to attack mafia and get votes so that she is protected from both sides as all congress A,B and C teams are already in her pocket. With BJP in her pocket, she is assured that no matter who comes to power, her interests are protected. How did she do it? She got all secrets of Namo and had a secret arrangement with him that as long as he protects her, he can do whatever he wants. Otherwise, she will open the file.

As some wise man says, humor is okay, but this is crassness!

Dasari wrote:Seriously, for whatever reason, one of the fashionable things in this forum is to try to abstract things at 30000 foot level and get completely blinded in what is happening on the ground.

I would love to be educated from those who have ears to the ground.

There is one basic question I am at a loss to understand:
Why would Congress self-destroy itself in SeemaAndhra? In 2009 they had 19 MPs from there. That is Congress's biggest bastion. Once they saw that SeemaAndhra people would not take kindly to it, they should have tried to backtrack or put in some riders or qualifiers in Telangana Bill.

If you have a theory which explains Sonia's behavior on this issue, please do share. But I don't buy into "misreading the situation" or "stupidity". You don't do such things in politics especially when you are in control and can set the agenda. You don't do suicide.