West Asia News and Discussions

[Prem]

Protests-spreading-to-saudi-arabia?
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/162512.html
Dozens of protesters arrested in Jeddah

Dozens of protesters have been arrested in Saudi Arabia's second biggest city after they protested against the weaknesses of infrastructure of Jeddah. The protests were triggered on Friday after floods swept through the city, killing at least four people, and raising fears of a repeat of the deadly 2009 deluge, in which more than 120 people lost their lives. On Wednesday, torrential rains caused flooding that swept away cars and downed electric lines in Jeddah. Following mass messages sent over smart phones on Friday, protesters staged a rally on a main thoroughfare in Jeddah's commercial district after Friday prayers. “God is Great,” they shouted before Saudi security forces moved to disperse the demonstrators. The protest came at a time when anti-government demonstrations are spreading across the Arab world. Reuters quoted a police officer as saying that around 50 protesters were detained during the anti-government rally. “They took them all. They were protesting. There are still some people hiding in that building over there. The police are looking for them and trying to arrest them,” another policeman said. Reports say another protest against the government's response to the floods is scheduled to be held on Saturday. Mobile text messages are being sent calling for a general strike next week. No work for the full week until they find a solution to the roads of Jeddah,” a message said. It was not known who sent the messages. Saudi authorities asked residents to stay indoors. There is no official assessment of the damages caused by the foods.

[Prem]

Joint UK-France-Germany Statement on Egypt
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archiv ... _egypt.php

We are deeply concerned about the events that we are witnessing in Egypt. We recognise the moderating role President Mubarak has played over many years in the Middle East. We now urge him to show the same moderation in addressing the current situation in Egypt. "We call on President Mubarak to avoid at all costs the use of violence against unarmed civilians, and on the demonstrators to exercise their rights peacefully.
"It is essential that the further political, economic and social reforms President Mubarak has promised are implemented fully and quickly and meet the aspirations of the Egyptian people."There must be full respect for human rights and democratic freedoms, including freedom of expression and communication, including use of telephones and the internet, and the right of peaceful assembly."The Egyptian people have legitimate grievances and a longing for a just and better future. We urge President Mubarak to embark on a process of transformation which should be reflected in a broad-based government and in free and fair elections."

[ramana]

Obama Presses for Change but Not a New Face at the Top

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/30/world ... diplo.html

Every US President since Reagan needs to get rid of one dictator :Gorby, Noriega, Haiti generals, Saddam and so on and so forth.

No bad feelings Mubarak as barack eases you out.

[Singha]

the west want a controlled reaction rather than pure all-out revolution where generally leftist hotheads and ideologues can quickly rise to power promising 'power to the people'. that kind of revolution generally results in a massacre and emigration of the political carpetgabbers and business elites...all 'friends' of the west.

ofcourse the New Mahdi soon proves to be equally repressive and builds his own empire like the soviet union leadership did - all zil limousins, nice wood panelled dachas and special shops stocked with danish butter and german sausages for the elites, while the aam aadmi had to queue up for hr to get bread and meat

[Raghavendra]

Another color revolution sponsored by wealthy Unkil


US secretly backing Egypt's rebel leaders?

Washington, Jan 29: The Obama administration is reported to be secretly backing leading figures behind the uprising in Egypt.

According to The Telegraph, a "regime change" has been in the works for the past three years.

According to the paper, the American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police. On his return to Cairo in Dec 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011.

Egyptian security has since arrested the dissident in connection with the demonstrations. The Telegraph has refused to reveal his identity.

The disclosures, contained in previously secret US diplomatic dispatches released by the WikiLeaks website, show American officials pressed the Egyptian government to release other dissidents who had been detained by the police.

President Mubarak, facing the biggest challenge to his authority in his 31 years in power, ordered the army on to the streets of Cairo yesterday as rioting erupted across Egypt. Police fired rubber bullets and used tear gas and water cannon in an attempt to disperse the crowds. At least five people were killed in Cairo alone yesterday and 870 injured, several with bullet wounds.

Mohamed ElBaradei, the pro-reform leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner, was placed under house arrest after returning to Egypt to join the dissidents.

Riots also took place in Suez, Alexandria and other major cities across the country. William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, urged the Egyptian government to heed the "legitimate demands of protesters".

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she was "deeply concerned about the use of force" to quell the protests. In an interview for the American news channel CNN, to be broadcast on Jan 30, David Cameron said: "I think what we need is reform in Egypt. I mean, we support reform and progress in the greater strengthening of the democracy and civil rights and the rule of law."

Washington has previously been a supporter of the Mubarak's regime, but the leaked documents show the extent to which America was offering support to pro-democracy activists in Egypt while publicly praising Mubarak as an important ally in the Middle East.

[ramana]

ShyamD note:

India wont rush to comment

Egypt on boil, but India won’t rush in

C. Raja Mohan

Posted: Jan 30, 2011 at 0206 hrs IST


New Delhi As India watches with concern the gathering political storm in Egypt and other Arab states, the government will not rush into commenting on the unprecedented and the unpredictable revolt against the ossified order in the Middle East, official sources here say.

The government’s current silence on the confrontation between the Arab nation and the ruling regimes in the Middle East does not mean it is unaware of the implications of the tumult for India’s growing interests in the region.

India’s trade with the 22 countries of the Arab League is currently at the level of about $120 billion and is expected to double within the next five years. Prospects for regional instability have already begun to push oil prices up and close to $100 a barrel.

Both principle and pragmatism, however, have tended to reinforce the current Indian reluctance to inject itself verbally into an explosive situation on the Arab street.

With the exception of its own immediate neighbours whose internal developments directly affect India’s national security interests, India has scrupulously respected the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other developing nations.

Conscious of its own strong sensitivities against the meddling by great powers, India would rather avoid the impression of taking sides in the Arab world’s internal conflicts.

From the practical perspective too, officials here point out, any Indian comment at this stage — even a banal call for ‘restraint from all sides’ — is unlikely to make much difference to the situation on the ground.

Washington, which has strong influence in Egypt, is finding it hard to balance its massive political investment in Cairo’s ‘ancien regime’ and its proclaimed preference for democratic change in the Middle East.

Unlike the Bush Administration that embraced the notion of promoting democracy in the Middle East, the Obama Administration has drastically toned down its policy ambitions in the region.

The Obama Administration has been criticised at home for being too timid in its response to the massive street protests against an adversarial regime in Tehran during 2009 and the current unrest against a long-standing ally in Egypt.

South Block is aware of the deep popular empathy for India in the Arab street. At the intellectual level, too, there is considerable admiration in the region for the Indian struggle to sustain a secular and democratic political system under difficult conditions and its recent high economic growth rates.

Unlike the West, which propped up unpopular and authoritarian regimes in the region and is eager to reach out to the Arab street, India is under no pressure to prove its abundant goodwill to the peoples of the Middle East.

Yet, India may no longer have the luxury of an overly cautious diplomatic posture as the political crisis of rare magnitude inflames the Arab world.

As the Arabs turn away from the old ideological slogans and against their own authoritarian governments, India will soon have to recalibrate its diplomacy in the Middle East, where its interests have become deeper and more widespread.

Good India centric article. Now he should try to define how the recalibration is to be effected.

[abhishek_sharma]

Ex-officials urge Obama to suspend aid to Egypt

http://www.politico.com/blogs/lauraroze ... Egypt.html

A bipartisan group of former U.S. officials and foreign policy scholars is urging the Obama administration to suspend all economic and military aid to Egypt until the government agrees to carry out early elections and to suspend Egypt’s draconian state of emergency, which has been in place for decades.

“We are paying the price for the fact that the administration has been at least of two minds on this stuff, and we should have seen it coming,” said Robert Kagan, co-chair of the bipartisan Egypt working group, regarding what many analysts now say is the inevitable end of Hosni Mubarak's thirty year reign as Egypt's president.

...

Washington Egypt hands suggested there was tension inside the Obama administration -- which met for three hours Saturday on the Egypt crisis -- between those advocating the U.S. maintain a “cautious” policy of hedging its bets for now that Mubarak might stay on, and those who see that his departure is inevitable. They also said that some members of the administration were influenced by Israel’s concern at losing a reliable peace partner.

[abhishek_sharma]

Embassy making arrangements to airlift Indians from Egypt

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a ... 139866.ece

[abhishek_sharma]

Issue Guide: Arab World Protests

http://www.cfr.org/publication/23929/issue_guide.html

Democracy in Arab World

Interview: Robert Danin: The Arab World's 'Unprecedented' Protests
Op-Ed: Elliott Abrams: Less 'Engagement,' More Democracy
Op-Ed: Elliott Abrams: Protests Show Bush Right About Freedom in the Arab World
Transcript of Steven Cook and Jared Cohen Call: Tunisia--Repercussions for the Region
Article: Joel D. Hirst: The Wrong Side of History
Essential Document: Hillary Clinton's Remarks in Doha, January 2011
Expert Roundup: Will WikiLeaks Hobble U.S. Diplomacy?
Must Read: Anthony Cordesman: Be Careful What You Wish for in Arab World
Must Read: Daniel Brumberg: Getting Real About Democratic Reform in the Arab World
Must Read: Marc Lynch: Will the Arab Revolutions Spread?
Must Read: Simon Tisdall: Arab Protesters Tire of Men Who Would Be King

Role of Social Media

Foreign Affairs: Clary Shirky: The Political Power of Social Media
Foreign Affairs: Jared Cohen and Eric Schmidt: The Digital Disruption
Foreign Affairs: Ian Bremmer: Democracy in Cyberspace

Egypt

Analysis Brief: Egypt's Widening Discontent
CFR Contingency Planning Memo: Political Instability in Egypt
Foreign Affairs: Steven A. Cook: Egypt's Hero?
Interview: Edward P. Djerejian: Beyond Cairo: Translating 'Important' Obama Message into Policies
Op-Ed: Steven A. Cook: Crossing the Threshold
Op-Ed : Leslie H. Gelb: Obama's Risky Path in Egypt
Must Read: Stephen Kinzer: Egypt Protests Show American Foreign Policy Folly
Must Read: Economist: Another Arab Regime Under Threat
Must Read: Mohamed ElBaradei: Manifesto For Change in Egypt
Must Read: TIME: Why Egypt Isn't Ready to Have Its Own Revolution

Tunisia

Analysis Brief: Understanding Tunisia's Tremors
Analysis Brief: Can Tunisia Spark a Revolutionary Wave?
Interview: Elliott Abrams: Will Tunisia Inspire More Popular Uprisings?
Op-Ed: Steven A. Cook: The Calculations of Tunisia's Military
Op-Ed: Mohamad Bazzi: After Tunisia, Arab World Gives Up on America
Must Read: Shadi Hamid: After Tunisia: Obama's Impossible Dilemma in Egypt
Must Read: Carnegie Endowment: Tunisia: Lessons of Authoritarian Collapse
Must Read: LA Times: Tunisia's Uprising Was Three Years in the Making

[AKalam]

http://www.haaretz.com/news/internation ... o-1.340107

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak may have fled to his home in Sharm el-Sheikh on Saturday as flames and riots engulfed the capital city of Cairo, according to world media reports.

Mubarak's two sons, Gamal and Ala, arrived in London late Saturday as the clashes in their home country continued. The Egyptian president's wife joined them a few hours later.

[AKalam]

The following article is from the "Issue Guide: Arab World Protests" list posted above by abhishek_sharma:

http://www.newsweek.com/2011/01/28/egyp ... folly.html

Egypt Protests Show American Foreign-Policy Folly

Even if democratic regimes in the Middle East are not fundamentalist, however, they will firmly oppose U.S. policy toward Israel. The intimate U.S.-Israel relationship guarantees that many Muslims around the world will continue to see the U.S. as an enabler of evil. Despite America’s sins in the Middle East, however, many Muslims still admire the U.S. They see its leaders as profoundly mistaken in their unconditional support of Israel, but envy what the U.S. has accomplished and want some version of American freedom and prosperity for themselves. This suggests that it is not too late for the U.S. to reset its policy toward the region in ways that would take new realities into account.

Accepting that Arabs have the right to elect their own leaders means accepting the rise of governments that do not share America’s pro-Israel militancy. This is the dilemma Washington now faces. Never has it been clearer that the U.S. needs to reassess its long-term Middle East strategy. It needs new approaches and new partners. Listening more closely to Turkey, the closest U.S. ally in the Muslim Middle East, would be a good start. A wise second step would be a reversal of policy toward Iran, from confrontation to a genuine search for compromise. Yet pathologies in American politics, fed by emotions that prevent cool assessment of national interest, continue to paralyze the U.S. diplomatic imagination. Even this month’s eruptions may not be enough to rouse Washington from its self-defeating slumber.

http://www.stephenkinzer.com/

[Philip]

How America betrays its bosom pals!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ising.html

Egypt protests: America's secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising
The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned.

[Philip]

"Mubarak-The last Pharaoh".

Final series now available for free,live on TV.Thrilling suspense
filled action packed epic coming to a gripping finale shortly! This
compares favourably with that legendary TV series of the
'80s,"Marcos-Emperor of the Phillipines",the final days of which I was
priviliged to watch live along with a friend (sadly deceased,who
almost became ambassador to that country) who personally knew Marcos
as a Senator when he was a young student in Manila.His expert comments
on the live action made it truly memorable.

Fisk says that the US and the west have yet to realise "that it is all over".

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/co ... 98444.html

Robert Fisk: Egypt: Death throes of a dictatorship

Our writer joins protesters atop a Cairo tank as the army shows signs of backing the people against Mubarak's regime

[Johann]

What do you do in turbulent but important places?

Make sure you back the people who are going to win anyways, and do it early so that they don't forget you. Of course they may be happy to take your help (which is often cautious and hesitant, one of a number of hedging bets) and dump you later.

The side effect? You look like you're in control when all you're doing is surfing the wave. People understand what you're doing when you miscalculate and the wave lands on you...but the rest of the time they think you're Neptune, god of the oceans.

[abhishek_sharma]

Saudi king tells Obama he supports Egypt stability

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 139966.ece

[shyamd]

Ramana, Its simple, MEA is waiting and watching. Our interests in Egypt are not significant, no one is expecting us to open our mouths on what is happening in Egypt. So MEA is taking the cautious route. We are not ready to take leadership role yet.

[abhishek_sharma]

Israeli PM says ties with Egypt must be preserved

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 139998.ece

[abhishek_sharma]

Al-Jazeera banned in Egypt

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 140020.ece

[Pranav]

Fisk says that the US and the west have yet to realise "that it is all over".

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/co ... 98444.html

Robert Fisk: Egypt: Death throes of a dictatorship

Our writer joins protesters atop a Cairo tank as the army shows signs of backing the people against Mubarak's regime

Typical of Fisk to say nothing about the role of the US. Mubarak served his master well, but it's time for a new horse. Nothing personal.

[Singha]

Times of India - ‎6 minutes ago‎
NEW DELHI: India is sending a special commercial flight on Sunday to bring back Indians wanting to return home from Egypt that is in the middle of a political upheaval.

-
when even india makes a move, smells like regime change/unpredictability is order of day.

[abhishek_sharma]

Egyptians Defiant as Military Does Little to Quash Protests

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/31/world ... egypt.html

[RajeshA]

Good India centric article. Now he should try to define how the recalibration is to be effected.

It is the recalibration part, where both MK Bhadrakumar and C Raja Mohan both fail to impress.

[brihaspati]

I think we should note the possibility that the older public-anger-street demo-military coming out - topple the old autocrat - military takes power - back to US court route is not really working. This is a fundamentally different social move from the earlier ones. Even the military is no longer that sure of a power base. The movement that has started may back down before a military crackdown but it will mean the end of the legitimacy of the army. In the next round of people versus regime, the military will be the target if the military really wants to take power.

I would guess that even the military is shaky. They have been part and parcel of the regime that has brought things to this point and even their top brass would be secretly in fear in case people really take up power under any of the semi-underground orgs that now operate in Egypt. Popular committees will form where activists from different orgs will gradually lead and crystallize the movement. It is more likely to head the Iran way with the theological character or role of MB kept more hidden than in Khomeini Iran - because MB has learnt greater sophistication in tactics.

[amdavadi]

State dept advising americans to leave egypt.

[Neshant]

US wants to keep Mubarak around like Musharaff

But like all election rigged leaders, they get run out of town eventually - usually running off with their country's money like Musharaff.

[KrishG]

Tunisian Islamist leader Rachid Ghannouchi returns home

Alongside his supporters, the Reuters news agency said, was a small group of secularists with banners reading: "No Islamism, no theocracy, no Sharia and no stupidity!"

Interesting situation.

[wig]

Oman said it had uncovered a UAE spy network in the Gulf Arab state that targeted its government and military, the state news agency of the U.S. ally reported on Sunday.

Neighboring United Arab Emirates, a regional energy, financial and tourism hub that typically has had friendly relations with Oman, denied having links to any such network.

A regional security analyst found the allegations puzzling but suggested one possible motivation for such a network was that the UAE wanted to know more about Oman's links with Iran.

"This is all very murky," Theodore Karasik, director of research and development and research at the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/ ... 1R20110130

[sunnyP]

Muslim Brotherhood say Elbaradei will negotiate on behalf of all the opposition.,


This, according to various news agencies. MB seem to be biding their time before making a move. They know if they are heavily involved in the protests, support from the rest of the world won't be as strong. Like the fall of the Shah, it was started by the liberals and democrats but will be ended by the mullahs.

[shyamd]

Oman said it had uncovered a UAE spy network in the Gulf Arab state that targeted its government and military, the state news agency of the U.S. ally reported on Sunday.

Neighboring United Arab Emirates, a regional energy, financial and tourism hub that typically has had friendly relations with Oman, denied having links to any such network.

A regional security analyst found the allegations puzzling but suggested one possible motivation for such a network was that the UAE wanted to know more about Oman's links with Iran.

"This is all very murky," Theodore Karasik, director of research and development and research at the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/ ... 1R20110130

Already posted about this on December 11th! Link

Some Hot news out of Oman. Will post more when time permits:

News number 1: A group of Omani spying for the Abu Dhabi Royal Family have been detained. Press blackout in Oman.

Well here is the deal. Over a dozen spies of Omani origin were spying for the Abu Dhabi Crown Princes intel unit. Why spy on Oman? Well, they were caught in a small port town of Duqm, which the Omani govt is trying to develop into a major industrial port. It literally is in the middle of no where and didn't have much. It seems the Abu Dhabi guys were concerned that the strategic location of the port, would impact business for the UAE's planned free trade zone in Abu Dhabi and also JAFZA (Jebel Ali Port in Dubai) which is now defacto owned by Abu Dhabi. (QUick pointer, DPW have interest in a lot of ports around that area, they operate Aden, Kochi etc. Funny actually, locals in Aden are getting extremely pissed of at DPW and calling for stripping their contracts because they havent developed the port or started any work and is hindering the economy in that part of the world)

SO what did Abu Dhabi do to respond to the arrests of their spies?
They blocked all pork exports to Oman. Yes folks, Pork! God knows why.

Duqm port sits outside the straits of Hormuz, is closer to India, Iran etc. Good for trade, and will be cheaper/closer to all of the sea trade routes.

[SwamyG]

In India these things are much harder because the great diversity means that legitimacy can be gained only through democratic means (leaving aside EVM considerations for now).

It is a blessing in disguise. It is one reason why we don't get taken down EASILY by outsiders. This makes the outsiders work painfully and slowly to take down us piece by piece. Islamic and Colonial hordes have shown. But they never managed to own the sub-continent totally. We can make similar arguments for EJs vs Hinduism. An interesting element in several of these countries is that the idea of a big city falling to outside force and the entire country tows the line. For example, once Baghadad fell, Iraq was supposed to be owned. Once Kabul fell, Afghanistan was owned. I should say perceived to be owned, because the insurgents keep working and being PITA. But they do not have the large geography that the sub-continent offers. It is tough to make an argument that if N.Delhi falls, India is toast. Or for that matter say Mumbai or Bangalore falls to nefarious elements, we have tonnes of other Indian cities and regions who will stand up.

Ofcourse the above is glass half-full story; the other side of the glass is such diversity makes growth slow, sporadic and the country is susceptible to fall piece by piece. If few regions falls, and if the rest of the region assemble together like T-1000 in Terminator 2, we should be able to take the broken pieces back, albeit in a long time. The pluralistic Indic traditions are necessary and ought to be flying high for all rallying. People rally for or against an idea. Period. Be it the idea of "mathru bhoomi" or "dharma" or corruption.

[A_Gupta]

Does anyone have insight into the Egyptian economy, and why economic liberalization does not or will work there?

[Y. Kanan]

It's interesting when you look at what true democratization brings to all the various "moderate" regimes of the Islamic world. When the will of the people is allowed to actually pour forth, here's what you probably end up with:

Egypt: Islamic state with free elections and relative freedom of the press (at least initially)
Iraq: Shiite Islamic theocracy (with clerics running the show and non-Shiite's excluded from positions of power)
Saudi: Wahabbi Islamic state run by mullahs\clerics with non-Sunni's oppressed and thoroughly silenced)
Turkey: Islamic state with free elections and relative freedom of the press (at least initially)
Pakistan: Radical and xenophobic Islamic state with non-Sunni's oppressed and aggressive foreign policy centered around exporting terrorism and militancy to India, Afghanistan, etc
Iran: Relatively moderate Islamic state that allows most basic human freedoms and concentrates on internal development, but still maintains Islam as cornerstone of society.

Nowhere do we see any scenario where a "democratic revolution" and the "will of the people" produces a really positive outcome. The only exception is Iran, but even then, we're still talking about a population that wants Islam as the central pillar of the nation; the only disagreement is to what degree Islam should dominate civil life.

[Muppalla]

It's interesting when you look at what true democratization brings to all the various "moderate" regimes of the Islamic world. When the will of the people is allowed to actually pour forth, here's what you probably end up with:

Egypt: Islamic state with free elections and relative freedom of the press (at least initially)
Iraq: Shiite Islamic theocracy (with clerics running the show and non-Shiite's excluded from positions of power)
Saudi: Wahabbi Islamic state run by mullahs\clerics with non-Sunni's oppressed and thoroughly silenced)
Turkey: Islamic state with free elections and relative freedom of the press (at least initially)
Pakistan: Radical and xenophobic Islamic state with non-Sunni's oppressed and aggressive foreign policy centered around exporting terrorism and militancy to India, Afghanistan, etc
Iran: Relatively moderate Islamic state that allows most basic human freedoms and concentrates on internal development, but still maintains Islam as cornerstone of society.

Nowhere do we see any scenario where a "democratic revolution" and the "will of the people" produces a really positive outcome. The only exception is Iran, but even then, we're still talking about a population that wants Islam as the central pillar of the nation; the only disagreement is to what degree Islam should dominate civil life.

Except in Pakistan in the above list, the reality is they want to live on the basics & roots of the life that the society is actually built on over a 1000 years in these areas. We always look through the prism of the democracy that we learnt and also the west-defined parameters. The people really don't want all that. They think that these west-defined liberties actually lead to the sins and sinners. They do not want to sin (again this is per the purist Islamic definitions).

It is all about definitions. We are doing a great injustice here when we anlyze outside the islamic definitions.

It will be artificial to ask them to go back

Added later:
As long as Islam survives, the real positive outcome for the future of the world is to allow and encourage these countires to be led by clones of Osama Bin Laden. Anything else is fiddling with religious rights of these populations and their culture. In simple words taking away their independence.
Again let us not go too far into past and put them in so called pagan religions. The people there sustained only a thousand years history. It is their choice.

[ramana]

Yehudi bhai very upset at unintended consequences of Tunisian crisis being triggered.

[Kati]

The west in general, including unkil and untie, has been caught napping about this "popular uprising" in Tunisia followed by Egypt. The west has maximum to lose if this uprising persists, and 'Allah' knows where it may lead in future. Therefore, take the Telegraph (UK)'s article about unkil funding the Egyptian opposition for the last three years with a sackful of salt. It could very well be an implanted story to discredit the opposition, and trying a last ditch effort to come up with a compromise solution. Think of it - if this uprising succeeds, then the first thing that will happen is the open border between Egypt and Gaza through Raffah, and that will be a nightmare case for Israel. No wonder Israel is upset to no end. If tomorrow this wildfire catches Yemen and Jordan then the focus will easily shift from Iran
making any further attempt to scuttle Iranian nuclear program next to impossible. Further, in this doldrum the oil will keep rising - eventually hitting $150 - making Ombaba's economic recovery a distant dream...........
......Our wise MEA babus are in no rush to make any comment; they are sitting pretty munching 'jhaal muri' or 'bhelpuri' and 'chai'........
.....Hope this popular uprising also moves west to Algeria, Morocco,...etc. keeping the EU on its toes......

[Singha]

on another note - southern sudan voted 99% in referndum to break away from islamic northern sudan. southern sudan and adjacent eritrea is perhaps the original home of christianity (coptic christians). there was a decade long civil war preceding this.

[Kati]

^^^
Singha-ji,
...a little historical background, and this is what I have gathered from some Egyptian coptic christian......
still today, the coptic christians are part of the elite society in Egypt....most of them are well placed and wealthy......in intellectual professions or have good business. A disproportionate number of egyptian doctors settled in the west belong to this coptic christian community......
.....it is believed that when the islam came to Egypt and swept through the land, the elite priest/ruling class embraced christianity who are now coptic christians;...and the masses became islamists. So coptic christianity has its base in Egypt. probably the muslim traders across the Arabian peninsula settled in northern Sudan along with those who came from the Egyptian side.....

[Singha]

er I have seen photos of the cairo neighbourhood which is populated by the garbage collectors and reprocessing units and iirc they were coptic christians!

meantime,
CAIRO—Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood's agreement to back the secular, liberal opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei as lead spokesman for the country's opposition groups in reform negotiations suggests the group's once sidelined moderate wing is regaining strength.

After another day of protests, President Mubarak struggles to cling to power while Mohamed ElBaradei steps in to lead the opposition. The Wall Street Journal's Margaret Coker reports from Cairo.

The move marks the latest step by the controversial Islamic organization to subordinate its religious goals to what opposition groups are describing as a battle for democracy, in a country run under a state of emergency by President Hosni Mubarak for more than 30 years. It also suggests the movement may be positioning itself as a significant political actor in future Egyptian politics.

[somnath]

Interesting Stratfor analysis on the situation...

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/201101 ... 8790c7efb8

The US (and Israel) should be very very aprehensive about the uprisings in Egypt...Mohd El Baradei's constituency does not extend very far in the country...Overthrow of Mubarak can as likely result in the Muslim Brotherhood types ascending the throne...Nightmare for Israel, ditto for the US...

Somehow though, the possibility is still remote...Neutrality of the Army is a sine qua non for any such "velvet" revolution..It was attained in Tunisia..In Egypt, the Army is probably as much entrenched in the status quo as the other elites..

[ramana]

Singha, Go through Egyptian history from Pharoahs-> Ptolemic Greeks-> Islamised Arabs (Tarik, Murad)->Seljuk Turks->Ottomon Turks->Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak, it always was a military person. El Baradei may be the acceptable face for now but look for the Mameluke to take over.

-----------
Somnath, The current crisis came from the capital and spread outwards. Its a regime change not what these guys are postulating.