Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[Muppalla]

Sorry, bakwaas. I will bet and can buy all of them by distributing cash. All I need is 100 cr per constituency.

OK, so you are vehemently insisting that the cash handouts of 500, 1000 that are typically handed out will definitely make up for 5 years of daily harassment / extortion and siphoning away of funds from infrastructure, inflated utility charges etc.

Plot it right and plan it right then you will surely win. It got to be like a well oiled engine. Corruption is not something that is among few top. You can bribe almost 15% of voters depending upon your capability. What do you think all these lakhs of crores are being used for?

Don't simplify it with 500 and 1000 handouts and they are just visible stuff and that is all peanuts. During election time, as a commoner if you want to avail services of a prostitute, it will be 10 times more expensive or you may not get one. Where do they all go? Along with money they are also in the election supply.

[Pranav]

Swapan has a very incisive take on the factors which led to the Karnataka downfall - http://www.niticentral.com/2013/05/08/b ... 75522.html (audio)

[putnanja]

The infighting , corruption and arrogance by BJP leaders when in power is what did them in. Over the last two years, the government was just trying to fend off various challengers instead of providing good governance. It was more of a BJP loss than a Congress win.

Yeddy did more damage to the party by hanging on to power, and threatening all and sundry even after losing power, trying to get his chelas into government etc. They had become laughing stock. Even staunch BJP supporters in my family and friends circle were disgusted by the antics of those in power.

Yeddy had so much sympathy in last elections, that if he had provided proper governance and kept corruption to minimum, he would have easily been reelected. He squandered everything away, his friendship with the reddys and operation lotus etc all brought a bad name to the party.

No one in karnataka is surprised that BJP lost

[Pranav]

Yeddy had so much sympathy in last elections, that if he had provided proper governance and kept corruption to minimum, he would have easily been reelected. He squandered everything away, his friendship with the reddys and operation lotus etc all brought a bad name to the party.

Actually Reddy brothers were being supported by Sushma, Advani et al against Yeddy.

[Pranav]

If the BJP were smart, they would set up their own Ram Sene mirror images.

How about if an organization with a name like "Sonia Vichar Manch" went around putting posters highlighting MMS' declaration that Islamics have first right over national resources.

Or how about if the "Sonia Vichar Manch" went around putting posters of a slaughtered cow with a slogan saying "To Enjoy Beef Vote Congress".

[svenkat]

My last take on KA elections.
Theres no evidence that Yeddyurappa had any fundamenntal disagreement on Reddy model.We must remember that people on ground are not driven by marxist ideals.Yeddyurappa was uncomfortable with the interference and big brother attitude of Reddy brothers.Yeddyurappa was an organiser and had worked his way up over decades.

OTOH the mining barons had helicopted Sushma Swaraj into the Bellary fields and had financed BJP considerably.There was a conflict of interest between the dominant but numerically smaller reddys and Yeddyurappa,the grass roots worker.The Reddys might have thought Yeddyurappa was a light weight who could be pushed around.

I dont want to be harsh but reddys miscalculated badly on one count.This was not Cuddapah or Anantpur or Rangareddi where they could have their way.In Bellary,Yeddyurappa was no pushover.One must remember the Basava phenomenon at its inception(and not the later settled hierarchy)-revolt against Vedic orthodoxy,the voice against oppression,vaachanas in simple kannada.Even shaardula saar says that Reddys were unomfortable with BJPs populist leaders.From a Reddy view,populism decreases ROI and also mean less freedom to run their business.But thats fact of life in India.There are populist schemes throughout India including in AP.

A dharmic(however cliched it may sound)view is NOT just a laizzez affaire view.It means responsibilities and regulations.Its easy to pontificate while not in power.KA was first BJP govt in south.The attitude of BJP top leadership was bizzarre to say the least.

[Pranav]

The infighting , corruption and arrogance by BJP leaders when in power is what did them in. Over the last two years, the government was just trying to fend off various challengers instead of providing good governance. It was more of a BJP loss than a Congress win.

There was an interesting discussion between Kanchan and Swapan on this point. Kanchan was saying that looking at things objectively, despite all the problems, BJP govt in KA was definitely not more corrupt or incompetent than the Congies.

Swapan made the point that what matters is the battle of perceptions, and that is where the BJP could not manage. You can have a somewhat better product but fail in communicating.

Also, Swapan said that BJP voters expect higher standards and the BJP needs to be significantly and noticeably better than the Congies. If BJP ends up being like the Congies then voters will go for the original object, by default.

[shaardula]

In constituencies with INC wins
BJP+KJP+BSRC > INC: 30 seats
Avg. BJP+KJP+BSRC Win Margin: +13177 votes
BJP+KJP+BSRC < INC: 91
Avg. BJP+KJP+BSRC Loss Margin: -27265 votes
Avg. JDS Loss Margin: -41368 votes

In constituencies with JDS Wins
BJP+KJP+BSRC > JDS: 6
Avg. BJP+KJP+BSRC Win Margin: +12432 votes
BJP+KJP+BSRC < JDS: 34
Avg. BJP+KJP+BSRC Loss Margin: -45687 votes
Avg. INC Loss Margin: -22876 votes

yedi or no yeddi, people wanted to vote the *bjps out. they did.

[ramana]

We need to be clear that the Reddys being mentioned are the Bellary mining Reddys and not the whole Reddy Community.

[AjayKK]

Yeddy, CBI cards spell doom for BJP

The CBI trump card

The Congress admitted that the CBI played an important role in helping them win the elections. Speaking to Mirror, a Congress leader said, “The script was written two years ago when the CBI was given the charge of investigating the illegal mining scam. With all eyes glued on the investigations, the changing undercurrents went unnoticed.

Yeddyurappa was used to deflect votes from the BJP, and the CBI became the stick to prevent Yeddyurappa from turning into a rogue operator who could have foiled the Congress’ game plan.”

Infighting within, fight with Dilli leaders + CBI ! Can any local party leadership and cadre survive after this? Fighting the C-system is difficult for the BJP while INC rinses and repeats this prescription at the time and state of its choosing.

[AjayKK]

Without understanding completely regarding how elections are contested and how voters are swayed into voting for a particular candidate we resort to following:

(1) anti-incumbency
(2) EVM magic
(3) Middle classes sit at home

In about 60% of the country the fundamentals of elections mechanism of 1980s and 1990s did not change. It is about effective use of caste and money. How money is used is a huge topic. I spent two times in life with a candidate of primary party and went through the nitty-gritty of election campaign. Anti-corruption campaign or pro-governance campaigns are only catalyst and does not contribute even 2% to election victory.

+ 101.

[Singha]

has anyone been to bellary lately? there is a hiriyur-bellary road you take from blr side, and then left onto hospet->hampi.
due to a bus accident in 2010, we were diverted onto a side road on outskirts near some steel mills .... soon the road ran out and cars started moving on truck trails through huge slag heaps and mounds of red soil. I got a close look at those factories.
a scene from hell would not begin to describe the black soot covered premises, every part of metal had deep rust but the boilers were burning and spewing smoke to the heavens. once we got back to main road again, enroute to hospet there is the jindal steel township on a spur...again its wreathed in dust and smoke like a scene from a mad max movie.

I think the SC has shut down many such ops...if left to their own with no standards and controls on technology used, the mining barons would convert the entire area into open cast iron mines and rip the place clean.

[member_23629]

Swapan made the point that what matters is the battle of perceptions, and that is where the BJP could not manage. You can have a somewhat better product but fail in communicating.

If that is true, then BJP should have gone all out to buy the media as perceptions are created by the TV channels. Why did they not do so when in power or why they did not land like a ton of bricks on media arms of the Congress like NDTV is a mystery. Hindu nationalists lack ruthlessness to pursue their goals.

[Sanku]

Swapan made the point that what matters is the battle of perceptions, and that is where the BJP could not manage. You can have a somewhat better product but fail in communicating.

If that is true, then BJP should have gone all out to buy the media as perceptions are created by the TV channels. Why did they not do so when in power or why they did not land like a ton of bricks on media arms of the Congress like NDTV is a mystery. Hindu nationalists lack ruthlessness to pursue their goals.

Money Saar, you are talking about transnational interests supported power in controlling seat for 60 years. Money is Congress game, you can not outbid.

You can only change the game, which means something like RJB. But RJB is not something that can be pulled out at the drop of the hat.

[Sanku]

As always there is more truth in simple satire than pontification. Look at Yeddi's comments

[AjayKK]

Money Saar, you are talking about transnational interests supported power in controlling seat for 60 years. Money is Congress game, you can not outbid.

You can only change the game, which means something like RJB. But RJB is not something that can be pulled out at the drop of the hat.

+ 1. It is difficult to outbid the Congress. It is like going to Sharjah to play kirkit on a Jumma where half the crowd is houri seekers and other half are wannabe seekers, the umpires are paki- and the match referee chants AoA when an Indian wicket falls.

In our context, the biz interests having influence on the political circuit is the crowd, the controlled CBI, ED is the umpire and the paid media is the match referee.

Also, Fanne's post about "Congressi chor is our chor" but "BJP must be purer than gold" is always true for a certain section of the electorate.

But if money-sources are with them, it is better to be brazen and not cave in as the media will always blame BJP for Rs 500 fraud while the nation is shocked by 500 bn scams by INC.

[svenkat]

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-in-school/chidambaram-turns-tv-reporter-with-jaswant-singh/article4697440.ece

The senior Congress leader took the mike from a TV reporter and put in front of senior BJP leader Jaswant Singh as he emerged from Parliament. “Don’t you credit Congress with victory?” he asked Singh.

In fact, the Finance Minister was being asked questions by reporters on Karnataka when he saw Singh coming out. Promptly, he took the mike of the TV reporter and posed the question to Jaswant Singh.

Singh said people vote for governance and "if you stop governance, people will vote you out".

“He is a gentleman”, Chidambaram said about Singh while returning mike to the reporter. “It is a message to all political parties.

[Yogi_G]

We need to be clear that the Reddys being mentioned are the Bellary mining Reddys and not the whole Reddy Community.

I believe there are also Vokkaliga Reddys who are different from the Reddys of Andhra.

[Raja Bose]

The old song sung by Mohammad Rafi in Meharbaan may come true after all...



X-post.

[habal]

As soon as the word BJP is mentioned, the first thing that comes to my mind is 'inexperience'.

Jaswant Singh by the phone waiting for call.
Going to Kandahar.
Rabindra Singh.
Bangaru Laxman.
Judeo.

they haven't yet found the balance between money-making, governance, hindutva and at what temp/volatility this combo has to be settled. If you try to do too many things at same time, you end up doing nothing. This group can end up going anywhere.

[Muppalla]

Money Saar, you are talking about transnational interests supported power in controlling seat for 60 years. Money is Congress game, you can not outbid.

You can only change the game, which means something like RJB. But RJB is not something that can be pulled out at the drop of the hat.

+ 1. It is difficult to outbid the Congress. It is like going to Sharjah to play kirkit on a Jumma where half the crowd is houri seekers and other half are wannabe seekers, the umpires are paki- and the match referee chants AoA when an Indian wicket falls.

In our context, the biz interests having influence on the political circuit is the crowd, the controlled CBI, ED is the umpire and the paid media is the match referee.

Also, Fanne's post about "Congressi chor is our chor" but "BJP must be purer than gold" is always true for a certain section of the electorate.

But if money-sources are with them, it is better to be brazen and not cave in as the media will always blame BJP for Rs 500 fraud while the nation is shocked by 500 bn scams by INC.

Even to change the game, you have to get there. Dandi march, RJB types are once in a century stuff. BJP does have options to get on the money train and beat the INC in their game. After that you can change the game.

Why they fear Modi? He uses his governance catalyst over all the moneyed interests. Why people even inside INC talk of 200 seats to Modi etc? Because there are reports that folks with tonnes of money approached and are ready to plunge into electoral politics in locations where BJP is currently 7th or 9th.

Money is at the end of day it is India's and history tells us that there is no effective way of distributing it. Anywhere in the world whether you go to 9000 BC or 2000AD or 2040AD, it will still be controlled by few. One can legalize and start calling it dharmic or call names as bloody Ambanis or rouge Reddys.

If INC has become transnational, BJP can make is inside India. The plot is there and the model is experimented. Only focused people have to take over from the nut cases.

See Chattisgargh and I will bet that it is going to be listed among rich states.

First always play the same game and defeat the opponent and later change it to your ideals and advantages. Cricket and IPL is a good example.

[vivek.rao]

http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/ ... wMode=HTML

THE CBI TRUMP CARD
The Congress admitted that the CBI played an important role in helping them win the elections. Speaking to Mirror, a Congress leader said, “The script was written two years ago when the CBI was given the charge of investigating the illegal mining scam. With all eyes glued on the investigations, the changing undercurrents went unnoticed. Yeddyurappa was used to deflect votes from the BJP, and the CBI became the stick to prevent Yeddyurappa from turning into a rogue operator who could have foiled the Congress’ game plan.”

Yeddi was a man in a hurry to tear apart BJP and egged on by Advani & AK. Sonia's perfect plan aided by Hegde, Advani, Ak and Yeddi's own ego.

I wonder if Modi can raid Ahmed Patel home to catch money bags in action just before Parliamentary elections. You know the best way to attack is not attack on Sonia/Rahul but the infrastructure around them.

Another way is to use internal bureaucratic sources in the GOvt. to spoil their Jagan's plan.

[shaardula]

apart from soot that singha mentioned, rape of the surrounding hills with hilltop removal mining.

[vivek.rao]

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/05/09/b ... 75846.html

Congress secured 36.5 per cent of the vote, just 1.8 per cent above its 2008 tally, but managed 121 seats out 223 (one elections was countermanded). The JDS also added only 1.1 per cent vote to its tally from 2008. But BJP’s vote share declined by a massive 13.9 per cent from 2008, to settle below JDS (20.1 per cent) at less than 20 per cent, though both managed to win 40 seats each. Yeddyurappa’s fledgling Karnataka Janata Paksha managed an impressive 9.8 per cent. The remaining 4.1 per cent of the original support of BJP-KJP went elsewhere.

The results show that the BJP never had a Plan B from the time Yeddyurappa was driven out of office, for the man who engineered the exit could not be made Chief Minister due to the political exigencies that rose due to the ouster.

It remains a mystery why, once the party bosses realised that Yeddyurappa’s ouster was a mistake, they failed to make a diplomatic retreat and reinstate him. Nitin Gadkari’s tenure was possibly the nadir of the party’s political acuity, though the continued stranglehold of leaders who cannot win elections without safe seats is a continuing problem.

Even more amazingly, the BJP did not see the writing on the wall even in April 2012 when the bells tolled loudly as Congress president Sonia Gandhi arrived at the influential Sri Siddaganga Mutt to felicitate Lingayat seer Sri Sri Shivakumara Swami in the community’s stronghold at Tumkur. Surely the BJP could not have forgotten that the Lingayats were traditionally loyal to the Congress and defected only after the party high command booted out then Congress Chief Minister Veerendra Patil in 1990. That is how Yeddyurappa eventually emerged as the community strongman and gifted the BJP its first ever victory in a southern State. Prior to this, the community facilitated the election of Janata Dal leader JH Patel, also a Lingayat, as Chief Minister.

The Lingayats comprise a formidable 21 per cent of the State’s population and do not take insults lightly. Sonia Gandhi sought political pardon for her party even as the BJP made the very same mistake that drove the Lingayats away from the Congress! It could hardly have helped the BJP that Yeddyurappa – who reportedly played a role in getting the seer to meet Sonia Gandhi – has clout with the heads of other Lingayat shrines. This was the last chance for the BJP to make up with Yeddyurappa, but it displayed inexplicable obduracy, and the rest is history.

[Muppalla]

Oh boy Yedd got almost 10%. That is really impressive as I was expecting not more than 4 or 5%.

[shaardula]

36.54% 24 Indian National Congress
20.10% 28 Janata Dal (Secular)
19.95% 11 Bharatiya Janata Party
9.84% 32 Karnataka Jantha Paksha
5.31% 23 Independent
2.69% 8 Badavara Shramikara Raitara Congress Party
2.10% 60 Misc. Independents
0.91% 9 Bahujan Samaj Party
0.35% 54 Sarvodaya Karnataka Paksha
0.34% 52 Samajwadi Party

bulk of it was 'coz of people like vaijanath patil & bangarappa son & other local leaders. nothing to do with yeddi. barely managed his own neighbourhood. i will only give credit to yeddi for the inroads he has made in the sc/st community. his performance in some of the tribal districts in eastern districts is commendable.

but from the numbers it is clear the overwhelming vote was against the *bjp.

[Sushupti]

[rkirankr]

36.54% 24 Indian National Congress
20.10% 28 Janata Dal (Secular)
19.95% 11 Bharatiya Janata Party
9.84% 32 Karnataka Jantha Paksha
5.31% 23 Independent
2.69% 8 Badavara Shramikara Raitara Congress Party
2.10% 60 Misc. Independents
0.91% 9 Bahujan Samaj Party
0.35% 54 Sarvodaya Karnataka Paksha
0.34% 52 Samajwadi Party

bulk of it was 'coz of people like vaijanath patil & bangarappa son & other local leaders. nothing to do with yeddi. barely managed his own neighbourhood. i will only give credit to yeddi for the inroads he has made in the sc/st community. his performance in some of the tribal districts in eastern districts is commendable.

but from the numbers it is clear the overwhelming vote was against the *bjp.

Did you see the constituency by constituency votes polled , shown today in a Kannada channel. Clearly if united they would have atleast reached a 90

[rkirankr]

BJP should not ask for removal of MMS. His being there will help them by creating more negatives for cong. Target should be the people close to the the family

[shaardula]

mebbe, all the 8 gult supporters of bhajpa in AP, all of whom seem to be here, should strive to get the bhajpa to rule AP instead of transference and projection of desires on hapless neighbors? if the reddy's are such great virtuous men, why not invite them to dig around in your own neighborhood & poke around in your own lands? would love to see the reactions of the sundry thigh slappers and broad thinkers here after ananthpur is all hollowed out and roads from there to vizag all dust filled. politics like sex is not a spectator sport. if you like the reddys so much, take them home and have samabhoga with them - parts they will penetrate, parts you will. lets see how much you enjoy that.

[shaardula]

36.54% 24 Indian National Congress
20.10% 28 Janata Dal (Secular)
19.95% 11 Bharatiya Janata Party
9.84% 32 Karnataka Jantha Paksha
5.31% 23 Independent
2.69% 8 Badavara Shramikara Raitara Congress Party
2.10% 60 Misc. Independents
0.91% 9 Bahujan Samaj Party
0.35% 54 Sarvodaya Karnataka Paksha
0.34% 52 Samajwadi Party

bulk of it was 'coz of people like vaijanath patil & bangarappa son & other local leaders. nothing to do with yeddi. barely managed his own neighbourhood. i will only give credit to yeddi for the inroads he has made in the sc/st community. his performance in some of the tribal districts in eastern districts is commendable.

but from the numbers it is clear the overwhelming vote was against the *bjp.

Did you see the constituency by constituency votes polled , shown today in a Kannada channel. Clearly if united they would have atleast reached a 90

i did.

so would have congress.
In constituencies with INC wins
BJP+KJP+BSRC > INC: 30 seats
Avg. BJP+KJP+BSRC Win Margin: +13177 votes
BJP+KJP+BSRC < INC: 91
Avg. BJP+KJP+BSRC Loss Margin: -27265 votes
Avg. JDS Loss Margin: -41368 votes

i scraped numbers from ECI website. not 90s, low 80s (40 + 6+ 4+ 30 + kosaru). aamelenu? same old bhajpa +jds sarkaara?

overwhelmingly janru voted against *bhajpa. get used to it. with or without yeddi they would have lost.

i dont want to rile the resident experts/voyeurs here but the numbers paint a very stark picture. We might have sent the largest contingent of karsevaks in india, but after 5 years of bhajpa, no love left.

[Theo_Fidel]

See Chattisgargh and I will bet that it is going to be listed among rich states.

Unfortunately not for a very long time. Very little is being done to change the social dynamics and the elite continue to do well while the rest 90%+ languish.
The human capital is extremely low and not enough attention is being paid to education esp. amongst the lower groups.

There are a few signs of improvement, the main roads are a bit better, but nowhere near NH standards, there is new nice looking airport built by AAI,
the Midday meal scheme is functional but only barely, because the government is not paying attention.

Power cuts are frequent in a state floating on coal.
Corruption is all pervasive. The only place In India I have had to pay numerous bribes recently,
some of them tragically small Rs 10 type amounts. A dozen times we were stopped on the public highway and money extorted from us.
There is no security, hardly any cops on the streets and main highways and the place feels unsafe.
I can't tell you how many times people lamented about the absence of security and the all pervasive corruption.
Incredibly even senior administration types all the way to ministers secretaries warned me to be careful.

The drive from Mungelli to Chilphi has to be the absolute worst road I have experienced in my life.
Large sections were abandoned when apparently the corruption was so bad the NHAI funds ran out before the final layers could be added.

This is one state that left me shaken about the future of India and the complete lack of understanding
of the rulers of the link between human capital and wealth of the state.

We will see how this latest elections go....

[shaardula]

if you are interested kiran, i can send you the csv of raw numbers from eci site and the script used to extract it. you can crunch numbers to your satisfaction.

[shaardula]

what are you theo, some kind of a masochist? dont you know, in politics all this does not matter. as long as you have some facility in bandying about monikers like rashtriya, bharathiya, and other *dharmic phrases, you dont have to have to any appreciation of the realities nor do you need any understanding of the plight of commons?

whatta boring guy you are man, talking of mid-day meals and all. i bet you are nothing but a devious trouble maker. thats all you are. i demand that you tell me what your source of funding is. which wholesome dharmic guy ever talks about midday meals? thats all useless socialist talk that runs against the grain of thought & practice since 9000 bc.

[svenkat]

Anywhere in the world whether you go to 9000 BC or 2000AD or 2040AD, it will still be controlled by few. One can legalize and start calling it dharmic or call names as bloody Ambanis or rouge Reddys

These are the words of a true jingo and I agree.We should not demonise Hindu wealthy people.Christists have their agenda denigrating Indian society.

Thats why reddys fall out with a mild yeddyurappa is disturbing.The BJP should have ensured that reddys ensure minimum standards and the aam aadmi gets the best possible deal without destroying the wealth creators.If BJP leaders cannot be a honest broker to reddys,yeddyurappa and KA,they are hopeless to say the least.It was their job to get the deal within the framework or change the framework to cater to fair demands of all stakeholders.That environment existed in KA and the clowns in Delhi blew the chance.

[Sushupti]

scary!!

I will work to build KJP: B S Yeddyurappa

"Now, I will concentrate on strengthening the party and prepare for the next election to the Lok Sabha," he said.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 972310.cms

[ramana]

What did I say!

[VikramS]

.
Did you see the constituency by constituency votes polled , shown today in a Kannada channel. Clearly if united they would have atleast reached a 90

https://twitter.com/karthiks/status/332065593660407810

If BJP hadn't split, numbers would have been: Cong: 91, BJP: 86, JDS: 35 @gkjohn

[shaardula]

from extrapolating the history of the central asian republics to overestimating the influence of a petty parochial sdre is a great fall for you ramana. not something to be proud of.

deep sleepers of brf, in their self proclaimed 4-th state of consciousness, would do well to wake up and smell the jasmine and not be scared of simple realities of life. no love lost for bhajpa in ka atleats for local goverance. what happens in ls i dont know, but it is clear an overwhelming percentage of ordinary digas dont want them to lord their day-to-day lives. atleast not right now they dont.

[shaardula]

.
Did you see the constituency by constituency votes polled , shown today in a Kannada channel. Clearly if united they would have atleast reached a 90

https://twitter.com/karthiks/status/332065593660407810

If BJP hadn't split, numbers would have been: Cong: 91, BJP: 86, JDS: 35 @gkjohn

as we say back home, its theertha (holy water/sacrament) only when poured from a shanka (counch).