The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc)

[Singha]

Dr Shahid ‏@DR_SHAHID 1h1 hour ago
#Afghan Rebels claim taking hostage at least 15, including 2 US soldiers, after shooting down US helicopter in #Faryab province
#Afghanistan

[member_23858]

Will this stupid act by rabid dog-un take the world away from dollar?
Coz any act by russia will be seen as aggression by the west (how Convenient). They will probably impose more sanctions on the bear (what more can the buggers do!!!!). But russia has another card up its sleeve. China and Iran. Lets not underestimate the influence of china and iran. and if there is any way that russia can bypass dollars as a trading currency wrt china and iran, we can see emergence of parallel world orders. China has ton of dollars with it......Russia can sustain its economy on chinese trade.

[habal]

One can see that all elements are in place near the aircraft crash area (kill box) namely- camera, f-solah, tow-walla, and French Ac coming soon. Its a trap for RuAF which had operated with impunity until now.

Turkish surveillance vehicles were reportedly sent to #Syria border yesterday prior to #RuAF jet being shot down

[Singha]

https://twitter.com/Ibra_Joudeh/status/ ... 7320156165

looking at the kind of mortars in use there, no wonder the firing is done from a safe distance..one never knows which direction it will shoot - front, back or side! these are just steel water or oil pipes repurposed not "barrels" forged for the job.

I saw a interesting mortar round, where the round is much bigger than barrel and sits outside. a couple of long thin sticks goes inside the barrel and ignites. has a range of around 1km and works like hell though. blasted a large house in the video.

[rsingh]

Somd reply to the post are realy funny
Roman petukhov wrote
There is the dong for turkish people. Yerdegan broyght turkish c**t under l**d.

[rsingh]

Dr Shahid ‏@DR_SHAHID 1h1 hour ago
#Afghan Rebels claim taking hostage at least 15, including 2 US soldiers, after shooting down US helicopter in #Faryab province
#Afghanistan

Was anybody shouting AoA?
Since when Afgan are rebels? They were supposed to be Talibans

[Suresh S]

for the first time in history real possibility of tactical nuclear weapons being used by russia

[Satya_anveshi]

If i had been Putin, I would "lure" few F16 into syria by upping the sorties of Aircrafts along the Turkey syrian border. Then let them walk into the trap, cross the air space, and kick the shit out of turkish EFF-Solah. Turkey is the poster child of certain groups (ehm Pakis). Beating the shit out of them serves many a people.

I am guessing they will do the following:

- Strengthen air defense in Syria further
- Assad says any enemy aircraft in Syrian space that does not have approval from legit Syrian govt will be shot down
- Strengthen air defense in Iran in return of more ground troops and bring in more informal forces from Iraq
- Stay the course in Syria and maintain bombing (deny space to others)
- Teach Ukraine a lesson that shakes EU more than the Paris attack did

[habal]

for the first time in history real possibility of tactical nuclear weapons being used by russia

why tactical ? use the biggest available ... lol

if you use tactical .. USA will get new ideas for terror strikes .. use the biggest one and then they begin to wet their pants thinking off .. what if we slip ..

[Satya_anveshi]

Any analysis that talks about EU siding (or even staying neutral) with Russia is obsolete after Paris attack and Hollande's visit to US.

Until another variable is introduced that changes the situation.

[Lalmohan]

The plan must have been to create. NATO level escalation
Watch for reaction from gelf bandits

[member_23858]

for the first time in history real possibility of tactical nuclear weapons being used by russia

why tactical ? use the biggest available ... lol

Yup, Tactical Newclear weapons are a forte of Pakee khacchars. So is strategic depth and downhill ski-ing

[Singha]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/25/opini ... egion&_r=0

John Bolton: To Defeat ISIS, Create a Sunni State
By JOHN R. BOLTONNOV. 24, 2015 257 COMMENTS


America is debating how to respond to the terrorist attacks in Paris. Unfortunately, both President Obama’s current policy and other recent proposals lack a strategic vision for the Middle East once the Islamic State, or ISIS, is actually defeated. There are no answers, or only outmoded ones, to the basic question: What comes after the Islamic State?

Before transforming Mr. Obama’s ineffective efforts into a vigorous military campaign to destroy the Islamic State, we need a clear view, shared with NATO allies and others, about what will replace it. It is critical to resolve this issue before considering any operational plans. Strategy does not come from the ground up; instead, tactics flow deductively once we’ve defined the ultimate objectives.

Today’s reality is that Iraq and Syria as we have known them are gone. The Islamic State has carved out a new entity from the post-Ottoman Empire settlement, mobilizing Sunni opposition to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad and the Iran-dominated government of Iraq. Also emerging, after years of effort, is a de facto independent Kurdistan.

If, in this context, defeating the Islamic State means restoring to power Mr. Assad in Syria and Iran’s puppets in Iraq, that outcome is neither feasible nor desirable. Rather than striving to recreate the post-World War I map, Washington should recognize the new geopolitics. The best alternative to the Islamic State in northeastern Syria and western Iraq is a new, independent Sunni state.

This “Sunni-stan” has economic potential as an oil producer (subject to negotiation with the Kurds, to be sure), and could be a bulwark against both Mr. Assad and Iran-allied Baghdad. The rulers of the Arab Gulf states, who should by now have learned the risk to their own security of funding Islamist extremism, could provide significant financing. And Turkey — still a NATO ally, don’t forget — would enjoy greater stability on its southern border, making the existence of a new state at least tolerable.

The functional independence of Kurdistan reinforces this approach. The Kurds have finally become too big a force in the region for Baghdad or Damascus to push them around. They will not be cajoled or coerced into relinquishing territory they now control to Mr. Assad in Syria or to Iraq’s Shiite militias.

The Kurds still face enormous challenges, with dangerously uncertain borders, especially with Turkey. But an independent Kurdistan that has international recognition could work in America’s favor.

Make no mistake, this new Sunni state’s government is unlikely to be a Jeffersonian democracy for many years. But this is a region where alternatives to secular military or semi-authoritarian governments are scarce. Security and stability are sufficient ambitions.

As we did in Iraq with the 2006 “Anbar Awakening,” the counterinsurgency operation that dislodged Al Qaeda from its stronghold in that Iraqi province, we and our allies must empower viable Sunni leaders, including tribal authorities who prize their existing social structures. No doubt, this will involve former Iraqi and Syrian Baath Party officials; and there may still be some moderate Syrian opposition leaders. All are preferable to the Islamist extremists.


The Arab monarchies like Saudi Arabia must not only fund much of the new state’s early needs, but also ensure its stability and resistance to radical forces. Once, we might have declared a Jordanian “protectorate” in an American “sphere of influence”; for now, a new state will do.

This Sunni state proposal differs sharply from the vision of the Russian-Iranian axis and its proxies (Hezbollah, Mr. Assad and Tehran-backed Baghdad). Their aim of restoring Iraqi and Syrian governments to their former borders is a goal fundamentally contrary to American, Israeli and friendly Arab state interests. Notions, therefore, of an American-Russian coalition against the Islamic State are as undesirable as they are glib.

In Syria, Moscow wants to dominate the regime (with or without Mr. Assad) and safeguard Russia’s Tartus naval base and its new Latakia air base. Tehran wants a continuing Alawite supremacy, with full protection for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria.

As for Iraq, Russia and Iran want the Sunni territories returned to Baghdad’s control, reinforcing Iran’s regional influence. They may wish for the same in Kurdistan, but they lack the capability there.

Sunnis today support the Islamic State for many of the same reasons they once supported Al Qaeda in Iraq — as a bulwark against being ruled by Tehran via Baghdad. Telling these Sunni people that their reward for rising against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq will be to put them back in thrall to Mr. Assad and his ilk, or to Shiite-dominated Baghdad, will simply intensify their support for the jihadists. Why would they switch sides?

This is why, after destroying the Islamic State, America should pursue the far-reaching goal of creating a new Sunni state. Though difficult in the near term, over time this is more conducive to regional order and stability.

Creating an American-led anti-Islamic State alliance instead of Moscow’s proposed coalition will require considerable diplomatic and political effort. American ground combat forces will have to be deployed to provide cohesion and leadership. But this would be necessary to defeat the Islamic State even if the objective were simply to recreate the status quo ante.

The Anbar Awakening and the American military’s 2007 “surge” provide the model, as do Kurdish successes against the Islamic State. Local fighters armed, trained and advised by the United States would combine with Arab and American conventional forces.

The military operation is not the hardest part of this post-Islamic State vision. It will also require sustained American attention and commitment. We cannot walk away from this situation as we did from Iraq in 2011.

The new “Sunni-stan” may not be Switzerland. This is not a democracy initiative, but cold power politics. It is consistent with the strategic objective of obliterating the Islamic State that we share with our allies, and it is achievable.

[BRao]

I think wannabe Turks - Pakis might be watching this keenly if they can try this with India & get away.

[member_23858]

I think wannabe Turks - Pakis might be watching this keenly if they can try this with India & get away.

Actually they have tried, and didnt get away!!! way back in 1999. As the murphys law states "if anything that can go wrong, it will go wrong, in worst possible time, in Pakishitstan"

[RoyG]

My predictions for a sunni buffer state are slowly falling into place.

[Prem]

Destruction Turkish military capability by Russian will be in our security interests. Paki lose another Abbu if Erdogan is punished in full view of global Maidan.

[Karan M]

Turkey has been supplying kit and training the TSP types. A few solid jhapads by Russia might go any which way in making it a NATO Munna again.

[Satya_anveshi]

Not sure why folks are going in circles

IS/ISIS/ISIL is the new Sunni state (besides many existing ones) which is already denied.

That idiot bolten guy wants to achieve thru diplomacy what he lost militarily.

That jokerry guy was doing the same with Vienna talks....trying to win by his circus what he lost in battle...and rightly so he was shown his place.

I suspect if another round of Vienna talks will happen but we will need to see who (US or Iran) will bell that cat first.

[ldev]

From the Sunni states POV, " GWB screwed up and gave Iraq to the Shias on a platter", Sunni minority ruling over a Shia majority.

So as compensation the Sunnis want Syria to be given to them on a platter, Sunni majority being ruled over by an Alawaite (Shia leaning) minority.

That is the unspoken reason why there is this insistence on "Assad must go". And the reason why the US to retain some kind of tattered credibility with its Sunni partners is pushing the "Assad must go" line.

In this overall picture, Erodan is a total idiot for risking war with Russia for small peanuts.

[A_Gupta]

Turkish official: 'Two Russian pilots still alive'

Despite earlier reports that the two pilots are dead, a Turkish official has told Reuters otherwise.

Turkey believes the two pilots from a Russian war plane it shot down close to the Syrian border on Tuesday are still alive and is working to secure their release from Syrian rebels, a Turkish government official told Reuters. “Our units, who received the information that the two pilots were alive, are working to get them from opposition rebels safely,” the official said.

from:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2 ... ve-updates

[A_Gupta]

Analysts Ege Seckin and Firas Abi Ali from IHS Country Risk consider the options for both.

In the medium term, Russia and Turkey both have escalation options against one another. Russia can increase the price of Russian gas, while Turkey can provide support to insurgents within Russian Caucasian republics and in Crimea. Russia is also likely to retaliate indirectly by increasing support for the Syrian-Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its Turkey-based counterpart, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

from:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2 ... ve-updates

[Rahul M]

>> John Bolton: To Defeat ISIS, Create a Sunni State

the article pretends to lead to a 'eureka !!' moment but in reality what it says is no different from what US has been trying so far in syria -- a non ISIS non shia state.

[rsingh]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/25/opini ... egion&_r=0

John Bolton: To Defeat ISIS, Create a Sunni State
By JOHN R. BOLTONNOV. 24, 2015 257 COMMENTS


America is debating how to respond to the terrorist attacks in Paris. Unfortunately, both President Obama’s current policy and other recent proposals lack a strategic vision for the Middle East once the Islamic State, or ISIS, is actually defeated. There are no answers, or only outmoded ones, to the basic question: What comes after the Islamic State?

Before transforming Mr. Obama’s ineffective efforts into a vigorous military campaign to destroy the Islamic State, we need a clear view, shared with NATO allies and others, about what will replace it. It is critical to resolve this issue before considering any operational plans. Strategy does not come from the ground up; instead, tactics flow deductively once we’ve defined the ultimate objectives.

Today’s reality is that Iraq and Syria as we have known them are gone. The Islamic State has carved out a new entity from the post-Ottoman Empire settlement, mobilizing Sunni opposition to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad and the Iran-dominated government of Iraq. Also emerging, after years of effort, is a de facto independent Kurdistan.

If, in this context, defeating the Islamic State means restoring to power Mr. Assad in Syria and Iran’s puppets in Iraq, that outcome is neither feasible nor desirable. Rather than striving to recreate the post-World War I map, Washington should recognize the new geopolitics. The best alternative to the Islamic State in northeastern Syria and western Iraq is a new, independent Sunni state.

This “Sunni-stan” has economic potential as an oil producer (subject to negotiation with the Kurds, to be sure), and could be a bulwark against both Mr. Assad and Iran-allied Baghdad. The rulers of the Arab Gulf states, who should by now have learned the risk to their own security of funding Islamist extremism, could provide significant financing. And Turkey — still a NATO ally, don’t forget — would enjoy greater stability on its southern border, making the existence of a new state at least tolerable.

The functional independence of Kurdistan reinforces this approach. The Kurds have finally become too big a force in the region for Baghdad or Damascus to push them around. They will not be cajoled or coerced into relinquishing territory they now control to Mr. Assad in Syria or to Iraq’s Shiite militias.

The Kurds still face enormous challenges, with dangerously uncertain borders, especially with Turkey. But an independent Kurdistan that has international recognition could work in America’s favor.

Make no mistake, this new Sunni state’s government is unlikely to be a Jeffersonian democracy for many years. But this is a region where alternatives to secular military or semi-authoritarian governments are scarce. Security and stability are sufficient ambitions.

As we did in Iraq with the 2006 “Anbar Awakening,” the counterinsurgency operation that dislodged Al Qaeda from its stronghold in that Iraqi province, we and our allies must empower viable Sunni leaders, including tribal authorities who prize their existing social structures. No doubt, this will involve former Iraqi and Syrian Baath Party officials; and there may still be some moderate Syrian opposition leaders. All are preferable to the Islamist extremists.


The Arab monarchies like Saudi Arabia must not only fund much of the new state’s early needs, but also ensure its stability and resistance to radical forces. Once, we might have declared a Jordanian “protectorate” in an American “sphere of influence”; for now, a new state will do.

This Sunni state proposal differs sharply from the vision of the Russian-Iranian axis and its proxies (Hezbollah, Mr. Assad and Tehran-backed Baghdad). Their aim of restoring Iraqi and Syrian governments to their former borders is a goal fundamentally contrary to American, Israeli and friendly Arab state interests. Notions, therefore, of an American-Russian coalition against the Islamic State are as undesirable as they are glib.

In Syria, Moscow wants to dominate the regime (with or without Mr. Assad) and safeguard Russia’s Tartus naval base and its new Latakia air base. Tehran wants a continuing Alawite supremacy, with full protection for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria.

As for Iraq, Russia and Iran want the Sunni territories returned to Baghdad’s control, reinforcing Iran’s regional influence. They may wish for the same in Kurdistan, but they lack the capability there.

Sunnis today support the Islamic State for many of the same reasons they once supported Al Qaeda in Iraq — as a bulwark against being ruled by Tehran via Baghdad. Telling these Sunni people that their reward for rising against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq will be to put them back in thrall to Mr. Assad and his ilk, or to Shiite-dominated Baghdad, will simply intensify their support for the jihadists. Why would they switch sides?

This is why, after destroying the Islamic State, America should pursue the far-reaching goal of creating a new Sunni state. Though difficult in the near term, over time this is more conducive to regional order and stability.

Creating an American-led anti-Islamic State alliance instead of Moscow’s proposed coalition will require considerable diplomatic and political effort. American ground combat forces will have to be deployed to provide cohesion and leadership. But this would be necessary to defeat the Islamic State even if the objective were simply to recreate the status quo ante.

The Anbar Awakening and the American military’s 2007 “surge” provide the model, as do Kurdish successes against the Islamic State. Local fighters armed, trained and advised by the United States would combine with Arab and American conventional forces.

The military operation is not the hardest part of this post-Islamic State vision. It will also require sustained American attention and commitment. We cannot walk away from this situation as we did from Iraq in 2011.

The new “Sunni-stan” may not be Switzerland. This is not a democracy initiative, but cold power politics. It is consistent with the strategic objective of obliterating the Islamic State that we share with our allies, and it is achievable.

Typican American solution.........to solve a small problem creat a bigger problem.

[rsingh]

Double bost.

[Karan M]

What prevents Russia from sending in Spetznaz ambush teams, deliberately creating a situation wherein low flying Turkish jets attempt to chase a Russian one & then shoot them down? Message given.. or the Kurds getting ample weapons supplies and a tour of the FSBs finest insurgency tactics..

[K Mehta]

The Syrian situation is morphing into Afghanistan 2.
Turkey=pak

Will Putin play a different game.

All the comparison to chess shows one thing very clearly, US has the "tempo" while Russia is only responding or reacting to it.

[Austin]

As per official Russian Stats , 7-8 thousand Syrian Citizen are in Russia and 2 THousand received Asylum Status

http://ria.ru/world/20151124/1327722946.html

About two thousand Syrians have received the status of temporary asylum in Russia sat down with the conflict in Syria, but this figure is unlikely to grow, RIA Novosti said the head of the Federal Migration Service Konstantin Romodanovsky.

"Now in Russia there are about 7-8 thousand Syrian citizens. Of these, about 2 thousand people have received the status of temporary asylum. This figure is not large," - he said.

Romodanovsky said he did not think that their number will grow, since they do not have separate their community and they find it difficult to adapt to the conditions of Russia.

"We see that the Syrians are trying to go through Russia to the West, to Europe. I do not predict any stresses in this regard on the part of Russia for refugees", - he stressed the head of the Federal Migration Service.

Every day across the Russian border to Norway cross dozens or even hundreds of refugees - some days their number comes up to 200 people. They are refugees from over 20 countries - primarily in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Egypt, and Syria and others. On the territory of northern Norway has established several camps for Refugees. Some Norwegian politicians are in favor of it, to temporarily close the border with Russia to stop the increasing flow of refugees, many of whom, according to the Norwegian authorities do not need

[Austin]

Best option is to bomb those Turkman area near border with cluster weapon or carpet bomb , if Turkey could down plane for bombing those areas then surely the pinch there due to bombing hurts them a lot.

At an opportune time entice a fighter to enter into Syrian Airspace and shoot it down.

[RoyG]

One can see that all elements are in place near the aircraft crash area (kill box) namely- camera, f-solah, tow-walla, and French Ac coming soon. Its a trap for RuAF which had operated with impunity until now.

Turkish surveillance vehicles were reportedly sent to #Syria border yesterday prior to #RuAF jet being shot down

Looks like a news crew.

[deejay]

Turkey's letter to UN Sec Council and marked to Ban Ki-moon on shooting the Russian Jet:

http://live.aljazeera.com/Event/Turkey_ ... /207503335

[RoyG]

From the Sunni states POV, " GWB screwed up and gave Iraq to the Shias on a platter", Sunni minority ruling over a Shia majority.

So as compensation the Sunnis want Syria to be given to them on a platter, Sunni majority being ruled over by an Alawaite (Shia leaning) minority.

That is the unspoken reason why there is this insistence on "Assad must go". And the reason why the US to retain some kind of tattered credibility with its Sunni partners is pushing the "Assad must go" line.

In this overall picture, Erodan is a total idiot for risking war with Russia for small peanuts.

Turkey doesn't have a choice. If ISIS is confined to Iraq and buffer state north of Saudi Arabia declared, the Kurds will turn their attention on them and they know it.

[BRao]

Russia can't be playing catch up to US' moves. It must escalate and catch US & its munnas by the balls. Putin will understand this. For US+NATO, Syria is their playground and they will not let Russia settle. Putin must change the rules of the game.

[johneeG]

From the Sunni states POV, " GWB screwed up and gave Iraq to the Shias on a platter", Sunni minority ruling over a Shia majority.

So as compensation the Sunnis want Syria to be given to them on a platter, Sunni majority being ruled over by an Alawaite (Shia leaning) minority.

That is the unspoken reason why there is this insistence on "Assad must go". And the reason why the US to retain some kind of tattered credibility with its Sunni partners is pushing the "Assad must go" line.

In this overall picture, Erodan is a total idiot for risking war with Russia for small peanuts.

No, Turkey has the ambition to restablish Calipha and replace the Sauds as the Top Dog.

[Satya_anveshi]

The Syrian situation is morphing into Afghanistan 2.
Turkey=pak

Will Putin play a different game.

All the comparison to chess shows one thing very clearly, US has the "tempo" while Russia is only responding or reacting to it.

It is not about tempo. It is about strategy vs tactic.

Russia is playing to a strategy.
US is only relying on tactics (poor ones at that) that will eventually diminish its own ability to maneuver.

What has changed now from yesterday day - 1 fighter down and US is somehow achieving its goals. NOT!

[Aditya_V]

Russia is inviting disaster if it let's Turkey get away with this

[Austin]

The Russians seems to be sloppy too to let the lone Su-24 bomb close to the border without a CAP , considering in past one of the Su-30SM was also locked by Turkish radar.

Even if there is an engine flameout the crew would fall into a very hostile territory with little chance of surviving , A CAP is a must in these areas.

One can only thank these FSA do not have any Stingers so far or the ISIS

[Cain Marko]

Long years ago, a wizened Sufi master had cryptically said that world war 3 would start when a non arab middle eastern country attacked turkey. Seems like things are headed that way.

[Austin]

Russia is inviting disaster if it let's Turkey get away with this

IT would be a bigger disaster for them to react instantly with some rash action , best is not to get distracted and keep bombing these area with bigger hammer , it certainly hurts Turkey.

Right now the sorties are at very high rate and big bombers are involved , Tankers are blown and so are refineries and its bloody affects ISIS source of Income , Keep up the good work.

At an opportune time and place of Russia's choosing they can react.

[Cain Marko]

The Russians seems to be sloppy too to let the lone Su-24 bomb close to the border without a CAP , considering in past one of the Su-30SM was also locked by Turkish radar.

Even if there is an engine flameout the crew would fall into a very hostile territory with little chance of surviving , A CAP is a must in these areas.

One can only thank these FSA do not have any Stingers so far or the ISIS

I think the high level talks between them and turkey made then a bit complacent...hence the lone fencer and Putin's backstabbing comment. The bear was simply not expecting this