Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

[gakakkad]

Deleted

[Theo_Fidel]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 437151.cms

Good news for economy; FDI up 56 pc in November

The cumulative flows of USD 22.83 billion for the April-November period have crossed USD 19.43 billion which came in the full fiscal of 2010-11, according to officials.

During the April-November period, the FDI was up by 62.81 per cent from USD 14.02 billion a year ago.

"At this rate we would be able to cross USD 30 billion figure by end of the current fiscal," the official added.

[abhischekcc]

Could this be another miscalculation by GOI, much like the export data fiasco

India is learning something from China - Shanghai stats

The only original thing China ever made was copying.

[Kakkaji]

A new tool for economic forecasting :

china-india-skyscraper-boom-may-herald-downturn

MUMBAI, India (AP) — A skyscraper building boom in China and India may be a sign of an impending economic correction in two of Asia's largest economies, according to a new report by Barclays Capital.

Barclays has mapped an "unhealthy correlation" between construction of the world's tallest buildings and impending financial crises over the last 140 years.

Today, China is home to half of the world's skyscrapers — defined as buildings over 240 meters (787 feet) tall — currently under construction.

India, which has just two skyscrapers, is seeing its first skyscraper building boom, with 14 under construction, including the world's second-tallest tower, in the financial capital Mumbai.

India, which has just two skyscrapers but is building 14 more, takes top honors for hubris: The second tallest building in the world, the Tower of India, is now under construction in Mumbai.

Nonperforming loans in India — a substantial number of them to real estate ventures — grew by nearly a third in the first half of this fiscal year, more than triple the average annual growth rate since 2006, according to the Reserve Bank of India.

"If history proves to be right, this building boom in India and China could simply be a reflection of a misallocation of capital, which may result in an economic correction for two of Asia's largest economies in the next five years," Barclays said.

[Christopher Sidor]

Meanwhile...

Yup! Inflation has now turned into deflation! RBI has routed both inflation and economic growth. Killing two Kauva with 8.5% REPO rate or 13% bank lending rate.

http://business-standard.com/india/news ... 36/460939/

Food inflation gives way to deflation, prices fall 3.36%

This is pure CRAP. I have been going and buying vegetables and milk practically every day, for the past 3 months. Not even for one day have I seen the prices depreciate. In fact for milk they have gone up drastically.

[Rahul M]

pardon the OT post.

The only original thing China ever made was copying.

may be you meant it as a joke but it's true. cheating and copying for the equivalent of mandarin entrance exam in ancient china was widespread.
http://www.sacu.org/examinations.html

The sheer volume of knowledge required to succeed in the Imperial examinations elevated cheating to something of an art form in China. Miniature books were devised to be concealed in the palm of a hand; shirts had important passages from the Confucian Classics sewn, in miniscule lettering, to their insides; fans were constructed with pass-notes on their obverse. Other duplicities included hiring veteran scholars to sit the exams in one's stead, and the simple expedient of copying a neighbour in the exam hall. At certain times, bribery of examiners was commonplace.

As every Chinese teacher can attest these cheating methods, refined over centuries - are alive and well today.

One lasting legacy of an inflexible and daunting examination system is that Chinese students have become experts at subverting such systems. But the most important legacy of the imperial examination system is surely the massive academic effort channelled into the National University Entrance Examinations in China each year.

[Ambar]

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2012/20120105/biz.htm#5

India Inc raises $1.58 bn in Nov through ECBs, FCCBs

Indian companies with a record $5.3 billion of convertible bonds due this year may see borrowing costs more than quadruple after the worst performance among the world’s 10 biggest stock markets.
Reliance Communications Ltd., Suzlon Energy Ltd. (SUEL) and Tata Steel Ltd. (TATA), sold a third of the total debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Their shares are trading as much as 88 percent below the bond conversion prices. Should they choose to issue debt that can’t be converted into equity to meet repayments, companies will face an average yield of 6.92 percent on dollar-denominated bonds, a HSBC Holdings Plc index shows, compared with 1.55 percent on convertible notes, according to Barclays Capital data.
“Companies are heading into a debt trap,” Raj Kothari, a convertible bond trader at Sun Global Investments Ltd., said in a phone interview from London on Jan. 4. “Companies have no option but to repay the debt.”
Cash levels for Indian borrowers relative to their interest commitments fell to a five-year low after the central bank raised interest rates a record 13 times since March 2010 to combat inflation and as operating profits declined, Standard & Poor’s Indian unit Crisil Ltd. (CRISIL) said in a report this month. Corporate earnings will probably post the biggest drop in three years in the financial year ending March, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Reliance Communications, India’s second-largest mobile- phone operator, is due to repay $925 million of convertible debt on March 1, the largest amount by any Indian company this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Zero Coupon
The company’s zero-coupon bonds, sold five years ago to help fund capacity expansion in the world’s fastest-growing wireless services market, can be exchanged into stock at 661.23 rupees ($12.7). Reliance Communications (RCOM) rose 1.3 percent to 82.1 rupees at close in Mumbai, about 88 percent below the conversion price. The shares more than halved in value last year.
The Mumbai-based company’s 30 billion rupees of 11.2 percent securities maturing in March 2019 were little changed today at a yield of 9.72 percent, or 147 basis points more than equivalent-maturity government notes, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“Reliance Communications will ensure timely redemption of its foreign-currency convertible bonds,” Rohit Khanna, a Mumbai-based spokesman said by e-mail on Jan. 9.
Suzlon Energy, India’s biggest wind-turbine maker, has a total of $389 million of equity-linked debt maturing in June and October with conversion prices of 76.7 rupees and 97.3 rupees, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The company’s shares advanced 4.3 percent to 20.5 rupees in Mumbai.
‘Adequate Liquidity’
Tata Steel, the biggest producer of the alloy, will redeem $382 million of convertible bonds that exchange into equity at 730.5 rupees in September. The stock rose 3 percent to 383 rupees today.
“We have adequate liquidity,” Prabhat Sharma, Tata Steel’s spokesman, said by e-mail yesterday. “Refinancing is always an option depending upon the terms.”
Kirti Vagadia, head of corporate finance at Pune, western India-based Suzlon Energy, declined to comment when contacted yesterday.

Companies’ abilities to meet interest payments may weaken because sales have decelerated amid the global economic slowdown, Crisil said on Jan. 3. The report, based on financials of 420 companies in the S&P CNX 500 Index, said the “interest coverage” ratio had dropped to a five-year low.
Dollar bond costs for India borrowers are seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, below the 6.99 percent yield reached in October, the highest level since Oct. 30, 2009, according to HSBC. Similar rates for Chinese companies dropped to 5.88 percent, from a 31-month high of 6.84 percent touched on Oct. 4, the data show.

Subex Ltd. (SUBX), a telecommunications software maker, is looking at “multiple options to raise funds” such as selling equity or raising debt to repay two convertible bonds of $99 million maturing in March, Ramanathan J., a vice president at the Bangalore-based company, said in a phone interview on Jan. 9. The company will decide how to get $135 million to refinance the notes within the next month, he said.

Higher Rates
All except for $116 million of the bonds due this year were sold before 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, as investors were attracted by the Sensex trebling in value in 2006 and 2007.
Indian stock markets fell last year as growth slowed to below 7 percent for the first time since June 2009, the central bank raised interest rates more than any other Asian monetary authority and European leaders failed to find a resolution to the region’s debt crisis.
The cost of protecting the debt of eight Indian borrowers against default fell one basis point to 454 basis points yesterday, according to data provider CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc. and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated market. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a company fail to adhere to its debt agreements.
Five companies defaulted on $183 million of convertible debt in 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Indian borrowers sold $797 million of equity-linked bonds last year, down 55 percent from 2010, the data show.
Equity Dilution
Issuers will be able to avoid diluting their stock by repaying the bonds, said Prabal Banerji, chief financial officer at Adani Power Ltd., India’s 15th most-indebted company with $7.4 billion of loans outstanding.
“Repayment will be a challenge for many companies, but it’s still a blessing in disguise because borrowers won’t need to offer their shares at cheap prices to investors,” Banerji said in a phone interview from the western Indian city of Ahmedabad on Jan. 9.
Indian companies sought to borrow $92.2 million overseas in November to redeem foreign-currency convertible bonds, the most since permission to raise such loans without prior approval from the central bank was given in July, data published on Jan. 4 on the Reserve Bank of India’s website show.
“Equity prices have gone below the conversion prices on convertible bonds,” Samir Shah, head of technical analysis at BP Equities Pvt. said in a phone interview from Mumbai on Jan. 6. “There’s no option for companies but to repay the debt.”

If US commercial paper yields were even half of what it is for some of "premier" Indian companies, they would go out of business in a jiffy! Goes to show despite all our mocking at the west and their troubles, we are no less immune to the world affairs than any other country.

[Hiten]

OT indeed, but didn't know where else to put this. couldn't find any Indian politician-specific thread. This thread remotely somewhat relevant

Clip shows Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel speaking in the Parliament & then he addresses the nation [unrelated to the Parliament speech]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLsfsQr7NmQ

Apologies for the OT

[abhischekcc]

A new tool for economic forecasting :

china-india-skyscraper-boom-may-herald-downturn

MUMBAI, India (AP) — A skyscraper building boom in China and India may be a sign of an impending economic correction in two of Asia's largest economies, according to a new report by Barclays Capital.

Barclays has mapped an "unhealthy correlation" between construction of the world's tallest buildings and impending financial crises over the last 140 years.

Today, China is home to half of the world's skyscrapers — defined as buildings over 240 meters (787 feet) tall — currently under construction.

India, which has just two skyscrapers, is seeing its first skyscraper building boom, with 14 under construction, including the world's second-tallest tower, in the financial capital Mumbai.

India, which has just two skyscrapers but is building 14 more, takes top honors for hubris: The second tallest building in the world, the Tower of India, is now under construction in Mumbai.

Nonperforming loans in India — a substantial number of them to real estate ventures — grew by nearly a third in the first half of this fiscal year, more than triple the average annual growth rate since 2006, according to the Reserve Bank of India.

"If history proves to be right, this building boom in India and China could simply be a reflection of a misallocation of capital, which may result in an economic correction for two of Asia's largest economies in the next five years," Barclays said.

Well, there might be some truth in that.

Remember what happened when humans tried to build a skyscraper, back in the days of Babel.

[Suraj]

That Barclays article is too shallow. The Chinese are much further along in building skyscrapers than we are. We're far from stepping beyond urban renewal into the realm of overbuilding, and merely building skyscrapers does not amount to capital misallocation.

[Theo_Fidel]

I thought I'd post this. Mark. Cheer up folks. Onwards.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sns-rt-po ... full.story

When the clocks strike midnight
in New Delhi on Jan. 12, India will mark the first year in
history it has recorded no new cases of polio.

[svinayak]

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2012/20120105/biz.htm#5

India Inc raises $1.58 bn in Nov through ECBs, FCCBs

“Companies are heading into a debt trap,” Raj Kothari, a convertible bond trader at Sun Global Investments Ltd., said in a phone interview from London on Jan. 4. “Companies have no option but to repay the debt.”

Cash levels for Indian borrowers relative to their interest commitments fell to a five-year low after the central bank raised interest rates a record 13 times since March 2010 to combat inflation and as operating profits declined, Standard & Poor’s Indian unit Crisil Ltd. (CRISIL) said in a report this month.

Indian companies sought to borrow $92.2 million overseas in November to redeem foreign-currency convertible bonds, the most since permission to raise such loans without prior approval from the central bank was given in July, data published on Jan. 4 on the Reserve Bank of India’s website show.

“Equity prices have gone below the conversion prices on convertible bonds,” Samir Shah, head of technical analysis at BP Equities Pvt. said in a phone interview from Mumbai on Jan. 6. “There’s no option for companies but to repay the debt.”

If US commercial paper yields were even half of what it is for some of "premier" Indian companies, they would go out of business in a jiffy! Goes to show despite all our mocking at the west and their troubles, we are no less immune to the world affairs than any other country.

But India does not pretend to be world power or financial capital of the world.
Indian companies status is a reflection of the elite class (and their counter parts regime) who have taken short cut to money making and taken high risk to show they are the rulers. They have not provided the depth and confidence to the investors to raise capital in the market. This will need a correction which will reflect the market condition.


ruined the Indian economic base. The risk of high debt

[gakakkad]

Skyscraper 'bubble' in India . What are these CON-omists smoking ?

>>I thought I'd post this. Mark. Cheer up folks. Onwards.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sns-rt-po ... full.story


Saar, even though this is a 'good news' , its still too early to say that polio is eliminated . Most cases of polio are asymptomatic . less than 1% will progress to paralysis . Now , most (practically all) polio cases come from UP and Bihar . About 50-100 came up on an average every year in the last decade. The method used for is 'acute flaccid paralysis' surveillance . That condition can have several causes. Its classification as polio depends upon whether the virus is found in stool or not. Supposing a patient presents with paralysis to a PHC and its stool is not sent ? The case will not be recorded as polio . Reporting system is quite poor in these states .

[Theo_Fidel]

Yes, tests are still pending but are expected to be clean as constant testing through the year has come up clean. Even if there is random case or two here and there now we are non-endemic right. So we can target the area and eliminate quickly. The 50-100 average a year was discovered by the same system, No. You can only have one or the other.

Time will tell, meanwhile we have passed another milestone.

[vina]

Saar, even though this is a 'good news' , its still too early to say that polio is eliminated . Most cases of polio are asymptomatic . less than 1% will progress to paralysis . Now , most (practically all) polio cases come from UP and Bihar . About 50-100 came up on an average every year in the last decade. The method used for is 'acute flaccid paralysis' surveillance . That condition can have several causes. Its classification as polio depends upon whether the virus is found in stool or not

This was widely anticipated and in fact is head line news in today's Al-Hundi and has an entire page dedicated to it in the middle.

All in all, the GOI has spent 12,000 crores on this (the others, WHO, Rotary and US CDC etc have pitched in) each paise well worth spent I should add.

It would have got eliminated in 2005 or so as per plan if not for the unfortunate propaganda and scare mongering by some retarded mullahs in Nigeria that it was a "Jewish plot to sterlize muslim children" and that kind of propaganda got sustenance in N.India among muslims due to our own examples of retarded mullahs spreading that canard as well. It is to the total credit of the govt and the maturity of the Indian people (including the BJP/RSS and other saffron parties), that this didn't get communalized, there was strong outreach and education using leaders of good standing and good faith within the Muslim community to close to the last mile gap in this fight. The Haj was a major "clearing house" for polio transmission, mercifully the Saudies put an end to that by making polio vaccination mandatory for Haj.

Regards the method of deciding whether Polio is present or not, I noticed in today's Al-Hundi that they do an "environmental sewage analysis" and per that from around Nov 2010 or something, there was no polio virus present . So maybe there is good reason to believe that we have this nailed for good, Inshallah.

I am eternally grateful that with perseverance that we will eradicate this once and for all and I will be the last generation (atleast in the middle class, I had a class mate with polio in high school, there were polio affected victims who made it to the Madrassa in the PHysically handicapped category) to see polio and among all classes that my children will probably never see it in an Indian.

Of course, the icing on the cake is that we are delinked finally from Pakiland, which continues in the illustrious companies of Nigeria and Afghanistan.

And oh, India should make polio vaccination Mandatory for everyone from N Africa and Pakistan & Afghanistan.

[disha]

Saar, even though this is a 'good news' , its still too early to say that polio is eliminated

It is a major milestone and this milestone has to be celebrated, particularly this was mostly lead, managed and funded by India. Here is the opinion from an expert within the field of virology and the different types of polio virii to counter and the analysis and unique desi solutions that went with it.

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/ar ... epage=true

In 1992 itself I was associated with a government led effort to identify migration patterns, one of the questions then itself was how that data will help solve communicable diseases. So yes the same desis we love to hate have come through on a major milestone with totally indigenous effort.

[Theo_Fidel]

Of course, the icing on the cake is that we are delinked finally from Pakiland, which continues in the illustrious companies of Nigeria and Afghanistan.

Not only that friend Paki has gone on to infect Tallel than Mountain friend. So Panda now has more cases of Polio than India. Truly the gift that keeps on giving.

Need mandatory vaccine for all Panda visitors as well.

[Suraj]

I've been following this news since last fall, when trends indicated that a whole year may pass without any natural polio case incidences. I'm very happy to see this come true. As I recall from the articles back in October, to be declared polio-free, there has to be no incidences for three years. Despite all the issues with tracking cases in UP and Bihar, the fact that we've achieved this is a major milestone. We need to go back no more than 10-20 years to understand how the thought of us eradicating polio in such a short time seemed implausible. It would have happened sooner but for the whole ridiculous 'vaccines will make you infertile' conspiracy a few years ago.

[gakakkad]

I've been following this news since last fall, when trends indicated that a whole year may pass without any natural polio case incidences. I'm very happy to see this come true. As I recall from the articles back in October, to be declared polio-free, there has to be no incidences for three years. Despite all the issues with tracking cases in UP and Bihar, the fact that we've achieved this is a major milestone. We need to go back no more than 10-20 years to understand how the thought of us eradicating polio in such a short time seemed implausible. It would have happened sooner but for the whole ridiculous 'vaccines will make you infertile' conspiracy a few years ago.

Polio was eradicated from most of India almost a decade ago. Most of the cases were clustered to a few districts in UP and Bihar We use a live viral vaccine , which multiplies in the gut . The vaccine virus too gets excreted . The advantage is that it creates something called herd immunity. In a nutshell just like the disease virus , the vaccine virus too gets transmitted by feco-oral route. (meaning it finds its way from someone's soup-e-rear to someone else's mouth , it the second person is not immunized , he accidentally derives benefits of vaccination ) . The threshold for herd immunity for polio is 85%. Meaning that if 85 % of the population is immunized , the disease will be eliminated. The rest will get immunity by getting infected with the vaccine virus .

Now if we were getting cases of polio from a particular area , much less than 80% immunization cover was achieved .

Now what I am worried about , has been beautifully illustrated by Jacob John .

In India, the disparities of such factors spelt differential effectiveness among States. Not only did some communities exhibit lower vaccine effectiveness, they also had more intense wild virus transmission. The conjunction of both problems made U.P. and Bihar stand out as the most difficult regions for polio eradication. Indian scientists had actually warned the GPEI of such pitfalls but global leaders from rich countries couldn't believe that such extreme variations could exist with wild virus epidemiology and vaccine effectiveness. Once that lesson was learned, the progress was rapid.

Wild polioviruses exist in 3 types, and OPV also contains attenuated strains of the 3 types. So it is called trivalent OPV (tOPV). Among the 3 types, type 2 is the most efficient; that was why type 2 wild virus disappeared in 1999, within a few years of national pulse vaccinations. But type 2 in the tOPV also interferes with the others, making them very inefficient. From 2000, the frequency of campaigns with tOPV was increased in U.P. and Bihar, but to no avail. Type 2 had to be removed from tOPV to get the best out of types 1 and 3. In 2005 and thereafter, a new monovalent type 1 OPV (mOPV-1) was used in U.P. and Bihar — it is three times more effective than tOPV. This was one factor of success. But gaps in immunity were created against type 3; consequently, type 3 outbreaks occurred in 2007-2009. Then, a bivalent vaccine (bOPV with 1 and 3) was developed. It was non-inferior to mOPV-1 or mOPV-3. From early 2010, bOPV has been widely used in U.P. and Bihar during campaigns, while tOPV is used everywhere for routine immunisation.

While the problem of “failure of vaccine” was being addressed, there was also the problem of “failure to vaccinate”. Seasonally, millions of families from U.P. and Bihar migrate for work — some to Maharashtra or Punjab, others within their States. Their children missed both routine and campaign doses. The tactic of vaccination in transit — in trains/buses and in stone quarries/brick kilns — became the norm from 2005. As all bottlenecks were cleared, success ensued.

This is one of the reason why , absence of virus from sewers will not be the most certain sign for success. The second reason is that the virus may be isolated ,but mistaken as the vaccine virus if serology alone is used to diagnose .

I would recommend the following 2 measures-

1) switching to injectable vaccine in the regions polio was long eradicated. (using a quadrivalent vaccine combining it with diphtheria , would reduce the cost of cold storage , besides ensuring that immunodeficient individuals don't get disease from vaccine .

2) Keeping OPV in UP and Bihar where eradication has just been considered to be achieved .

[Theo_Fidel]

G,

So we pick up virus material from the 'environment' and this is the true nature of herd immunity! Yikes. Did not know that. You hear blithe comments on herd immunity but now we know...

The last case in TN was 2005 so it kinda lingered in the South as well. Good to see the crowded North make progress.

Isn't inject-able more expensive. Can just local volunteer do injections at train stations like the pulse polio drops.
--------------------------------------------------------------

BTW Elimination pf Polio is apparently a $50 Billion in cost savings to the economy over the next 40 years. Nothing to be sneezed at. This is how economies become rich. One battle at a time.

[gakakkad]

>>Isn't inject-able more expensive. Can just local volunteer do injections at train stations like the pulse polio drops.

Reason why it becomes cheaper is because we are already giving the injectable triple vaccine DPT (diptheria /pertussis and tetanus) to everyone. Polio can be combined with the 3 to form a quadrivalent vaccine . Some western countries combine the quadrivalent vaccine with Hemophilus influenza B (causes pneumonia and meningitis in kids) to form pentavalent vaccine.

The benefits of polio eradications go well beyond cost. To those who were paralysed , it was a lifelong punishment , the prevention of which is immeasurable . I used to see beggars in front of temple as a kid who were crippled by polio. If it had been eradicated when they were kids , there life could well have been much better .

Now we have 2 major goals to achieve before 2015-

1) Stopping the spread of HIV and reversing it. If HIV spreads at a rate lower than the mortality of existing patients , the number of HIV patients reduce.
2) Filaria is on the verge of eradication. To ensure that it too gets wiped out.

The biggest disaster however has been malaria. There was the roll back malaria , which failed badly . Other schemes had marginal success . Even though the number of cases today are much lesser than 2 decades ago , the disease needs still to be eliminated.

[Theo_Fidel]

Agree that the human benefits are great but there are real practical monetary benefits as well.

Malaria kills ~ 100,000 Indians every year, mostly children. #1 single source killer. If we could eliminate Malaria that would be a 0.5% boost to our economy right there. Unfortunately Malaria is not a virus but a worm like organism. So we would have to eliminate the organism and that is not easy. Esp. when it is endemic all around us.

[Suraj]

Thanks gakakkad! I was going to ask about malaria after reading your first post, but you've already covered it in the second one. Isn't the critical factor in addressing urban/suburban malaria incidences the need to increase civic sanitation mechanisms, as opposed to the immunization and associated herd immunity for polio ? There isn't really a clinically effective malaria vaccine in widespread use, is there ?

[ramana]

Kudos to Dr Jacob John for explaing clearly the three types of Polio viruses and how they were combatted. He also writes about the dangers of revivial if we stick to OPV only.

Picture is worth a thousand words and all that:

Polio Graphic


Gakakkad good strategy. Can you communicate with him via Hindu editors?


Re malaria its a world wide scourge. There was a Sci Am article on Malaria and that its wasn't as simple as quinine to get rid of it. Will search for it and link it.

The bacteria is called plasmodium.

Also isn't Filaria a related disease spread by a different mosquito?

All in all a win for India on the polio front.

I posted the article in Indian interests thread also.

[vina]

This is one of the reason why , absence of virus from sewers will not be the most certain sign for success. The second reason is that the virus may be isolated ,but mistaken as the vaccine virus if serology alone is used to diagnose .

One question. Per what I see, the polio caused by vaccine is show separately as VAPP (or something) and wild polio in another category. So there is someway they distinguish between the two, some form of gene sequencing ? It seems that every case of polio is analyzed and gene sequenced to see what type it is, where it came from, etc.. So wouldn't absence of wild polio virus in sewers show that it is out of "circulation" (largely?).

I would recommend the following 2 measures-

1) switching to injectable vaccine in the regions polio was long eradicated. (using a quadrivalent vaccine combining it with diphtheria , would reduce the cost of cold storage , besides ensuring that immunodeficient individuals don't get disease from vaccine .

Isn't that already happening in India ? My kid (15 months old) got two shots (IIRC) of Pentaxim (the pentalvent vaccine one of which is IPV) as part of his regular immunization in addition to OPV drops ? Maybe if the Indian guys (Shanta, Panacea) etc start cranking out the DTaP and the IPV combo and probably add the sixth Hepatitis into into and crash costs , that will solve a huge public health pain point and have better health for a whole larger segment of the population, lot lesser no of pricks and costs that would be a truly game changer.

I think the MMR and HiB and other vaccines from the Indian guys have brought down costs significantly.

What are your thoughts on having Rotarix part of normal immunization, given that diarrhea is such a killer in India (again, easy to give like OPV) and also Prevnar (bacterial meningitis is such a terrible disease) ? Of course all these are part of the schedule which my kid's pediatrician gave and IIRC are part of the Indian Assoc of Pediatricians (IAP) recommended schedule, when does it become part of the public health system ?

[vina]

Other schemes had marginal success . Even though the number of cases today are much lesser than 2 decades ago , the disease needs still to be eliminated

Leprosy is another one largely eliminated. My dad (a dermatologist) used to get hundreds of cases when it was endemic and in his 50 year career including in govt service must have seen literally thousands.

When he visited me last week, he said that it has been nearly 4 years since he has seen a fresh leprosy case. And he practices in a part of the country where it used to be an epicenter of that ancient scrounge.

[tejas]

Sums up beautifully how PVN Rao was India's best PM and what a parasitic entity the Kangress party was and is.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...DDLESecondNews

Quote:
The Reformer Who Never Was
Those who think highly of India's prime minister should realize he's always been just a technocrat.

By SADANAND DHUME

When Manmohan Singh was sworn in as India's 13th prime minister in 2004, few would have guessed that the country's highest political office would end up diminishing a leader widely admired at home and abroad. But today with GDP growth slowing, the rupee softening and the stock market in a funk, it's time to reassess the prime minister's record.

Nearly eight years after taking office, Mr. Singh has little to show for it. Instead of using his position as a bully pulpit for reform, the 79-year-old presides over a government synonymous with policy paralysis and reckless populism. Its best known ideas include an unwieldy make-work scheme that distorts labor markets and breeds corruption, a misguided education policy that threatens to drown India's few excellent private schools in a sea of mediocrity and an ill-conceived food security bill proposal that will funnel subsidized grain toward the majority of the country's 1.2 billion citizens.

India's reform agenda has become something of a joke. Instead of stepping up privatization, Mr. Singh's government lavishes taxpayer rupees on bloated state-owned companies such as the national carrier, Air India. Regressive labor laws that make it difficult for businesses to hire and fire workers stall the progress of millions from farm to factory. A forest of red tape places India a lowly 132nd on the World Bank's annual Ease of Doing Business rankings, between the Palestinian Territories and Nigeria.

Yet if we remember, most people expected Mr. Singh to cut through this red tape and unshackle the private sector. For many Indians, Mr. Singh, a soft-spoken economist with a reputation for probity, stood apart from the assorted ruffians and rabble rousers who make up the bulk of the political class. Overseas, he was best known as the face of India's economic reforms, the Oxford-educated finance minister who in 1991 boldly freed Asia's third-largest economy from the License Raj.

In hindsight, the prime minister ought to have been seen all along as less of a reformer and more of a faceless technocrat. Yes, as the finance minister who kicked off reforms in 1991, Mr. Singh scrapped industrial licensing, slashed import duties and made room for the private sector in businesses once reserved for government. But he did so in the face of a severe foreign-exchange crisis and under a prime minister, P. V. Narasimha Rao, who saw how the socialist pieties of his Congress Party had kept India poor.

Before becoming finance minister, Mr. Singh actually showed little promise as a reformer. He had spent much of the previous two decades—as chief economic advisor to the government, head of the Soviet-style Planning Commission and governor of the Reserve Bank of India, among other positions—propping up the very socialist edifice he later sought to dismantle.

If observers had taken a close look at the nature of this long career, they would have had more realistic expectations. They should have seen that in 1991, Mr. Singh pushed reforms because his boss told him to. Put simply, his programs reflect his boss's priorities and always have.

So since 2004, the prime minister has done what he usually does: take cues from his current boss. Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi has been preoccupied with a series of grandiose welfare schemes similar in inspiration, if not always in detail, to those associated with her late mother-in-law, former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. With neither a crisis nor a relatively reformist boss giving him cover for the few right instincts he may himself have, Mr. Singh championed the Congress mantra of "inclusive growth," meaning redistribution.

As long as India's economy was humming along near double-digit growth rates, Mr. Singh's image as a reformer remained largely unquestioned. In the international community, where India is widely touted as an economic rival to China, he has effectively been given a free pass. At G-20 meetings he's viewed as some sort of economic sage—confusing his personality for his policy.

The Congress-led coalition rode to power in 2004 on an implicitly antireform platform. Immediately after he took office, Mr. Singh decided to dismantle the separate ministry for privatization the previous government had created and shortly thereafter launched the rural jobs scheme. Even at that point, if people had paid less attention to the prime minister's resume as an economist and finance minister and more to his government's programs, a different picture would have emerged.

Only now that the good times are over are people waking up to the damage the Congress-led coalition has done. Last month, Goldman Sachs's Jim O'Neill, best known for inventing the term BRIC for the world's largest developing economies, said India's performance was the most disappointing of the four countries in the grouping. Against the backdrop of Europe's troubles, Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley Asia says India's economy is at greater risk of a hard landing than China's.

Mr. Singh has his work cut out for him. Either he begins finally to deliver on reforms or he gets used to the idea that history will remember him not as someone who rescued India's economy, but as the leader who prevented it from attaining its full potential. A large privatization and another go at a failed effort to invite large stores such as Wal-Mart to invest in Indian retail may be a good place to start. The usual litany of excuses about coalition politics, impending state elections and a mindless opposition simply won't cut it for the history books.

Mr. Dhume is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a columnist for WSJ.com. Follow him on Twitter @dhume01

[uddu]

A large privatization and another go at a failed effort to invite large stores such as Wal-Mart to invest in Indian retail may be a good place to start. The usual litany of excuses about coalition politics, impending state elections and a mindless opposition simply won't cut it for the history books.

Mr. Dhume is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute

The article started off well, took off with a bang but crash landed with a thud. Only MMS can fall for it. The Khan is trying all tricks to grab the Indian market. India must not be under the control of corporations trying to make the most profit through all crooked means. We must not be communist, nor be capitalist in its true sense. There is a limit that need to be drawn. Else we end up being an America of today. We can better be an India of great soul, culture, values, tradition, and great wealth in the hands of the people rather than a rich corporate America.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bVOFYDBZ0Es/T ... 2Bflag.jpg

[uddu]

More than the FDI in retail, today we must be worried about the devil that has slipped in unnoticed. Already there are companies that import stuff from foreign market and sell it here in Single brand retail. There must be rules passed to ensure that the products are all sourced from within India and if there is no production of the same in India, let them start factories to manufacture stuff and then sell it in India. Just packing products in India and placing stickers over it must not do.

[gakakkad]

Isn't that already happening in India ? My kid (15 months old) got two shots (IIRC) of Pentaxim (the pentalvent vaccine one of which is IPV) as part of his regular immunization in addition to OPV drops ? Maybe if the Indian guys (Shanta, Panacea) etc start cranking out the DTaP and the IPV combo and probably add the sixth Hepatitis into into and crash costs , that will solve a huge public health pain point and have better health for a whole larger segment of the population, lot lesser no of pricks and costs that would be a truly game changer.

I think the MMR and HiB and other vaccines from the Indian guys have brought down costs significantly.

What are your thoughts on having Rotarix part of normal immunization, given that diarrhea is such a killer in India (again, easy to give like OPV) and also Prevnar (bacterial meningitis is such a terrible disease) ? Of course all these are part of the schedule which my kid's pediatrician gave and IIRC are part of the Indian Assoc of Pediatricians (IAP) recommended schedule, when does it become part of the public health system ?

Actually , private pediatricians have been doing it for ages. Private docs in India are extremely quick in adapting to latest guidelines , research and equipment .Problem is that only 20% of kids are lucky enough to go to private docs.

Here is the IAP recommended immunization schedule the the private docs would follow - (IAP is not affiliated to gov't , but is an excellent organization of pediatricians , they do a lot of good work).

http://www.iapindia.org/immunisation/im ... n-schedule

Here is the government schedule that most Indian kids receive - (that has essentially not changed in 2.5 decades ).

http://whoindia.org/LinkFiles/Routine_I ... hedule.pdf

See the difference ?The gov't does NOT even provide Hepatitis B vaccine to most people . (Read after 4 asterisks, Hep B is provided "**** In select states, districts and cities")

IAP recommends acellular pertussis vaccine as it does not cause neurological complications. Government does not provide that.
It also recommends a host of other vaccines . Including the HPV vaccine for girls .(protective against cervical cancer ).

The reason that the gov't does not provide these things is not money , but misplaced priority .The Votebank does not understand the kind of vaccine they receive . They don't know that if their kid suffers from hepatitis B, its the governments criminality . So lapses in the immunization program don't quite bother the government .
People have been recommending the gov't since ages. India is a hub of cutting edge medical research. There was never a shortage of top quality docs and researchers. But government support has been always lacking.

CON party has made a real mess in the last few years. They drain billions on NRHM every year. Look at the results -

http://www.ijme.in/183co170.html

Yet another horrifying tale of corruption, the magnitude of this could dwarf everything else.

National Rural Health Mission: a failing mission .
Atul S Bahadur1
PDF

While India today is in the forefront of healthcare, and we often hear of health tourism being a great revenue generator, the vast majority of Indians, especially in the rural areas, today lack even the basic health amenities.

Even today "quacks” or "Docsaab”, who are former compounders of doctors or even the compounder’s assistants, rule the roost in such areas. Those in the government setup largely ignore such "quacks” as they are regularly paid off to turn a blind eye to their activities. It is common to have a person walking into a clinic and asking for a drip because of "weakness”. In a matter of 30-45 minutes, dextrose is pumped into that person alongwith injections of Avil and dexamethasone, he or she ends up paying some Rs 250 to 300 and leaves satisfied at having been treated well. Even the auxiliary nurse midwives (ANMs) and "dais” who are the "Doctorani” have well educated persons utilising their services for ante-natal services and deliveries.

Against this background of grassroots realities, the National Rural Health Mission may have been launched to remove the dichotomy in healthcare. As it stands even today, the NRHM could have revolutionised healthcare delivery in India and been a role model for all the Third World to emulate. But this is not the case.

The NRHM mission document states that "The goal of the mission is to improve the availability of and access to quality health care by people, especially for those residing in rural area, the poor, women and children.” (1) It primarily aims to improve the following parameters: health, sanitation and hygiene, nutrition and safe drinking water. It seeks to provide to rural people equitable, affordable, accountable and effective primary healthcare.

Along with other national programmes like the Janani Suraksha Yojana, the NRHM can go a long way to improve the mother and child welfare parameters in the country. While the concept is utopian, given the ground realities in the country, it has become a milch cow for many to siphon off funds.

The NRHM workforce comprises accredited social health activists (ASHAs), auxiliary nurse midwives (ANMs), and multipurpose workers (MPWs) along with contract or "samvida” staff nurses, AYUSH (ayurveda, yoga, unani, siddha and homoeopathy) and allopathic doctors. There is a great emphasis on reviving the AYUSH system of medical treatment for which various measures have been incorporated into the mission.

The ASHAs form the backbone of the NRHM and are meant to be selected by and be accountable to the panchayat. There is no fixed remuneration provided for the ASHAs but it is assumed that they will be suitably compensated for their work through various schemes. They are to act as a bridge between ANMs and the village. They are to be provided with a drug kit including Ayush drugs for common ailments, worth Rs 1,000, which are to be replenished from time to time. The government has also allocated "total support of up to Rs 10,000 per ASHA for initial training, monthly orientation, drug kit, support material, travel expenses, etc. Rs 5,000 permanent advance may be made available to every gram panchayat as a permanent advance for performance based incentive for ASHAs and anganwadi workers(2).

In fact the ASHAs were selected by the government’s provincial medical service doctors for a consideration and legalised later by getting the panchayats to appoint them. Yet, even today no ASHA has a drug kit and so there is no question of these kits being replenished. Finally, funds are provided to the panchayats to transport patients to primary health centres (PHCs) but again these are siphoned off as most of the population is not aware of this and other facilities under the NRHM.

Bringing AYUSH into the mainstream is a major thrust area of the NRHM. AYUSH doctors were to be appointed at PHCs and sub centres, and pharmacists and drugs were to be made available to them(1). However, on appointment they are being posted to allopathic hospitals. They are not provided with AYUSH drugs and pharmacists. They are prescribing allopathic drugs to patients and the unfortunate patient does not know that the treating physician is a homeopath or hakim or vaidya prescribing allopathic medicines. As the salary of AYUSH doctors is on par with that of the allopathic doctors, and unemployment levels are high in these streams due to mushrooming of colleges, there is a huge rush for appointment as samvida or ad hoc medical officers. The office of the chief medical officer (CMO) demands two to four months’ salary (Rs 50,000 to Rs one lakh) to appoint a samvida medical officer. Although the guidelines call for local persons to be appointed, doctors from other, far-off districts are being appointed after providing a proper "consideration”. Not too long ago, interviews for the post had to be cancelled when the office was filled with a large number of AYUSH doctors willing to pay upto Rs 1 lakh for the appointment as "samvida chikitsa adhikari”. The office was also inundated with letters and calls from ministers, local members of the legislative assembly and the bureaucracy.

Similarly, allopathic doctors are also being asked to pay for appointments, though a large number of their posts lie vacant. As all appointments are being made for a year at a time, with a gap of 15 days before re-appointment, money is being demanded on an annual basis. The NRHM scheme is to be functional from 2005 to 2012. The appointments for the scheme are on an annual basis, with a gap in service of 15 days. So large amounts of money change hands annually. This will lead to a window period of four months in the whole scheme with no ‘Samvida’ staff at the PHCs.

Samvida staff receives their salary only after they submit an attendance register every month at the CMO’s office. This must be submitted personally after being counter-signed by the medical officer in charge and the deputy CMO. In the process, two to three working days are wasted. Earlier, before they started transferring salaries directly to the staff member’s bank account, the office staff would demand money to release the same; otherwise, payments would be delayed, or amounts deducted on flimsy grounds. Even now, if a proper "consideration” is not paid to the office staff, you can land up receiving your salary after six months or more. As the amount involved is large, the demands too are higher. The attitude is that they are doing you a favour by giving you a salary and you are a new and easy source of profit.

While the NRHM envisages three staff nurses in every PHC with residences(2), it provides for only one ‘samvida’ doctor with no provision for residence. If the ‘samvida’ doctor does night duty, then there will be no one for the OPD services and vice versa. So there is a lack of vision in the provision of basic services.

All contract doctors and staff are supposed to work for eight hours a day, but permanent staff doctors try to exploit them by making them do their own work. At times, they make them work during non-duty hours. They push the ‘samvida’ staff around according to their whims and fancies, threatening termination on the flimsiest of grounds under a contract which is biased towards the office of the CMO.

The Janani Suraksha Yojana, being a major thrust area for safe deliveries in hospitals under the NRHM, is the biggest source of corruption. A mother from a rural area is to be paid Rs 1,400 and one from an urban area is to be paid Rs 1,200 for delivery expenses. ASHAs are also compensated for bringing mothers to the PHCs. But the mother and her attendants are made to cough up Rs 500 before the delivery. Around Rs 150 is taken for medicines that are provided to the centres free of cost under the NRHM. The unfortunate patient is told that she is going to get around Rs 700 for the delivery, so the lure of the money makes her pay as they would under normal circumstances have had to pay for the delivery to the dais or the doctor. The vast majority of deliveries are done by ANMs who pose as doctors and share their booty with the system, so the whole thing works flawlessly. Of late, a new practice has emerged: even home deliveries are shown as having been done at the PHCs to siphon off funds and skew the data to show a higher number of deliveries in the government setup.

Samvida doctors under the NRHM are an exploited lot of daily wagers who have no casual or earned leave and must work even on gazetted holidays, failing which their salary will be deducted by an amount which is a few hundred rupees more than what they would be paid for that day. The PMS doctors look down upon them as lesser beings who are disturbing their well oiled system of "gratification” for doing no work. Due to the undefined "hanging sword of termination” in their contracts samvida staff is forced to work as bonded labourers.

The most unfortunate fact about this utopian scheme of the NRHM is that the delivering agency assigned to it is the very one that failed to provide these services in the first place. Now they are being paid a second time to do the very job for which they were appointed by the government. To give one example, if you hear Provincial Medical Services doctors talking about a PHC and mentioning figures like Rs 1 or 2 lakh, they are talking about the revenue in bribes that the PHC generates per month. Based on this amount, the CMO and other senior officers demand their share of the booty.

To expect these people to deliver under any scheme or mission would be like asking for the sun.

Looking for a mechanism that may make the NRHM succeed, at least in Uttar Pradesh today, is a nightmare to my mind. A government set up will always find ways to make money out of the scheme, as is already being done with Pulse Polio. It is also difficult, if not impossible, to find an honest NGO to deliver; even they have to grease palms to get their dues and once they clear that hurdle, the lure of easy money is difficult to resist and the bureaucracy will keep demanding its pound of flesh.

The NRHM is yet another failed dream.

Gakakkad good strategy. Can you communicate with him via Hindu editors?

I d love to learn something from someone like him. He has done a lot of research . He is well regarded world over .

The kind of research that takes place in India , does not take place anywhere else. Prem posted an article in nukkad today about "totally drug resistant" TB. There were people who saw it coming 3-4 years ago . Even though RNTCP (the gov't TB program) is better run than most other gov't programmes , there were some serious lapses in some places .

Docs have been making recommendations for ages. But government rarely listens .

[Vipul]

Panic and chill in the air as TDR-TB claims 3 of 12 lives.

Less than a week after top chest physician Dr Zarir F Udwadia broke the news of presence of totally drug resistant tuberculosis (TDR-TB) cases in the city, it was revealed on Friday that three of the 12 patients he studied have died in the past two weeks.

Nobody would have known of these deaths if the Directorate of Health Services and BMC's health officers, completely taken aback by Dr Udwadia's research, had not launched a drive to visit the 12 patients to collect sputum samples of their family members.

While the identities and addresses of the 12 patients are not available, Mumbai Mirror traced one of the dead patient's family to its Patilwadi, Ranade Road, Dadar (west) home.

Supriya Daware, 20, died on January 5 after three years of being treated for TB across four hospitals. She was first diagnosed with TB when she was in class 12.

Ashok Daware, her distraught father, said she was last taken to the TB Hospital in Sewri on December 28. “They told her she was in the last stage. My daughter shrunk from 42 kg to 18 kg in the three years she was being treated.” The angry family on Friday refused to give the visiting BMC health officers their sputum samples. "Where were all these health officers when my daughter was suffering. She took 230 injections in three years. We took her to at least three TB hospitals, but none of them were equipped to help her,” Daware said.

Dr Udwadia’s research, meanwhile, has set off alarm bells ringing as far as New Delhi and Geneva. While in Geneva, the World Health Organisation (WHO) on Friday held an emergency meeting and got Dr Udwadia to update its members over a tele-link, in Delhi the Union Home Ministry’s Central TB Division promised to send a team to Mumbai on January 18 to take stock of the situation.

But the local health authorities now have a nightmare on their hand — identifying the people Dr Udwadia’s case studies may have come in contact with and testing them all for TB.

A bit late in the day, Directorate of Health Services and BMC’s health office on Friday established contact with the Central TB Division and discussed the possibility of isolating the nine surviving TDR-TB patients. Till late night, no site had been identified to create the isolation facility.

And to add to the crisis, now two samples in JJ Hospital have also tested positive to TDR-TB.

The discovery of TDR-TB cases makes India only the third country where the deadliest form of TB has struck. The other two countries where such cases have been documented are Italy (2007) and Iran (2009).

However, data on the disease are sparse and official accounts are unlikely provide exact figures of TDR-TB’s prevalence. Giovanni Migliori, director of the World Health Organisation Collaborating Centre for Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases in Tradate, Italy, suggests that TDR-TB is a deadlier iteration of the highly resistant forms of TB that have been increasingly reported over the past decade.

An article published in Nature, a weekly journal of science, says two drugs - isoniazid and rifampicin - have been the standard TB treatment since 1960. The article written by Katherine Rowland says that while cases of resistance were noticed from time to time, incidence of multiple drug resistance grew significantly in the 1990s, leading researchers in 2006 to refer to it as extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB).

When contacted, Dr Udwadia said the three deaths are not unexpected and must not cause unnecessary panic. Dr Udwadia said he detected XDR-TB cases five years ago. Till November 2011, Hinduja Hospital, where he is physician, had four TB patients resistant to all first-line (Isoniazid, Rifampicin, Ethambutol, Pyrazinamide and Streptomycin) and second-line (Ofloxacin, Moxifloxacin, Kanamycin, Amikacin, Capreomycin, Para-aminosalicylic acid and Ethionamide) drugs.

Dr Udwadia said lack of laboratories to test drug sensitivity is also a problem. “India has only 27 laboratories. The government needs to address the issue immediately and increase such laboratories.”

He believes that the TB bacteria, which earlier could be treated with drugs, has mutated because of poor regimen of drug administration and resulted in MDR-TB. It further mutated to take shape of XDR-TB and now TDR-TB.

[SureshP]

Xpost

Indian students rank 2nd last in global test
Hemali Chhapia, TNN | Jan 15, 2012, 02.24AM IST


MUMBAI: Across the world, India is seen as an education powerhouse - based largely on the reputation of a few islands of academic excellence such as the IITs. But scratch the glossy surface of our education system and the picture turns seriously bleak.

Fifteen-year-old Indians who were put, for the first time, on a global stage stood second to last, only beating Kyrgyzstan when tested on their reading, math and science abilities.

India ranked second last among the 73 countries that participated in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), conducted annually to evaluate education systems worldwide by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Secretariat. The survey is based on two-hour tests that half a million students are put through.

China's Shanghai province, which participated in PISA for the first time, scored the highest in reading. It also topped the charts in mathematics and science.

"More than one-quarter of Shanghai's 15 year olds demonstrated advanced mathematical thinking skills to solve complex problems, compared to an OECD average of just 3%," noted the analysis.

The states of Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh, showpieces for education and development, were selected by the central government to participate in PISA, but their test results were damning.

15-yr-old Indians 200 points behind global topper

Tamil Nadu and Himachal, showpieces of India's education and development, fared miserably at the Programme for International Student Asssment, conducted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Secretariat.

An analysis of the performance of the two states showed:

In math, considered India's strong point, they finished second and third to last, beating only Kyrgyzstan

When the Indian students were asked to read English text, again Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh were better than only Kyrgyzstan. Girls were better than boys

The science results were the worst. Himachal Pradesh stood last, this time behind Kyrgyzstan. Tamil Nadu was slightly better and finished third from the bottom

The average 15-year-old Indian is over 200 points behind the global topper. Comparing scores, experts estimate that an Indian eighth grader is at the level of a South Korean third grader in math abilities or a second-year student from Shanghai when it comes to reading skills.

The report said: "In Himachal, 11% of students are estimated to have a proficiency in reading literacy that is at or above the baseline level needed to participate effectively and productively in life. It follows that 89% of students in Himachal are estimated to be below that baseline level."

Clearly, India will have to ramp up its efforts and get serious about what goes on in its schools. "Better educational outcomes are a strong predictor for future economic growth," OECD secretary-general Angel Gurria told The Times of India.

"While national income and educational achievement are still related, PISA shows that two countries with similar levels of prosperity can produce very different results. This shows that an image of a world divided neatly into rich and well-educated countries and poor and badly-educated countries is now out of date."

In case of scientific literacy levels in TN, students were estimated to have a mean score that was below the means of all OECD countries, but better than Himachal. Experts are unsure if selecting these two states was a good idea.

Shaheen Mistry, CEO of Teach For India programme, said, "I am glad that now there is data that lets people know how far we still have to go."

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home ... 492508.cms

[Singha]

we have been through this report, which is on front page of TOI today.

I would totally agree that small rich nations are at the top,
and that we definitely need to improve the syllabus, teacher training/retention and infra esp in govt run rural and urban schools where no even lower middle class family will send their kids.

but what is totally hilarious is that Panda wormed in with only Shanghai as a sample (and no doubt some carefully selected schools) to preserve its H&D as the 'top dog' in the rankings a whole new literal meaning to the 'shanghai stats' joke

[gakakkad]

^
Why is TOIlet publishing this now ? The survey dates back to 2009 . This is the 5th or 6th time in the last few months , that something we discuss on this forum , appears in the TOILET paper.

Evidently the schools sampled from India were , the poorest government schools . I doubt a single urban private school or even a KV was tested. Finland is a country with per cap of 40k and a population of 5 million. Thats less than the population of ny or bombay. The number of 15 year olds in finland will be less than that of most Indian cities . Especially because it has an older population and India a younger one . So obviously Finnish kids would perform better than poor Indian kids going to gov't schools . If samples were taken from mumbai or ahmedabad or bangalore , than Indian kids would have whacked the shanghai or HK ding dongs badly .

The schools sampled were such that they did not even have a list of the students attending there.There was a line in the 200 page report that said that the schools that were sampled in India were unaware of the number of 15 year olds studying in them .So obviously they selected rural government schools .Because even a mediocre urban school will at least have a list of students attending . There is a lot of India baiting being done of late .IMHO this is a survey is a part of that.

Himachal Pradesh-India and Tamil Nadu-India did not meet PISA standards for student sampling. Due to
irregularities in the student sample numbers, it was established after the testing that these economies sampled
from student lists that were often incomplete: not all 15-year-olds within the school were listed. It was not
possible to determine whether any bias existed in the obtained sample. Caution should be exercised when using
the data from Himachal Pradesh-India or Tamil Nadu-India and when interpreting the reported analyses.

When data collection has such a glaring lapse , we take the results FWIW. Especially when US has a high school drop out rate of 50% .

[tejas]

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com ... the-world/

According to CNN in this Nov. 2011 article US high school drop out rate is 25%. Regardless, elementary and secondary school education has always been given short shrift in India. I personally think that in most countries 5% of the population are educated/productive and pull the country forward. 95% of the population essentially has its head up its ar$e. The prosperous countries have govt.s that get out of the way of that 5%.

In countries like India, not only is the govt. made up entirely of the head up ar$ers, they ALSO put up as many road blocks as humanly possible to make the 5% fail. The results are simple to see.

[gakakkad]

>>According to CNN in this Nov. 2011 article US high school drop out rate is 25%. Regardless, elementary and secondary school education has always been given short shrift in India. I personally think that in most countries 5% of the population are educated/productive and pull the country forward. 95% of the population essentially has its head up its ar$e. The prosperous countries have govt.s that get out of the way of that 5%.

In countries like India, not only is the govt. made up entirely of the head up ar$ers, they ALSO put up as many road blocks as humanly possible to make the 5% fail. The results are simple to see.

Actually , the US high school dropout rates would have been much higer than 40-50% if they did not follow a 'no child left behind' policy . US basically passes as many high school grads as possible.

US understood that the top 5 % manpower is what counts . And that top instis like MIT and stanford are not the places to indulge in democratization . And that merit should prevail in them. While the bozos who run India wanted 'democracy' everywhere . They wanted every ration card holder to go to IIT . And hence reservation was started. There is no reservation in US medical colleges .

So basically democracy in Yindia means "dumb everyone down to the same level" .

[abhischekcc]

Politicians treat people like mushrooms - keep in the dark and feed sh!t.

[uskumar]

Inflation is at 2 year low.we can expect interest rate cuts soon

[tejas]

There is technically no reservation in US med schools. However some "affirmative action" does exist. I can personally attest to this. However only some "minorities" are assisted. Indians/Asians and Jews almost need to be locked out while blacks/Hispanics are treated quite gently. Whatever any politician or bureaucrat says, I know this to be true. Thankfully, at the residency level only merit counts. Even the de facto affirmative action is miniscule compared to Yindia.

[gakakkad]

but even then , the number of blacks and hispanics we see is not all that high. its not like a percentage of blacks must get it irrespective of merit .

>>Thankfully, at the residency level only merit counts.

Not strictly true. Besides merit even nepotism counts (especially in radio , skin ,plastic) . But there is no reservation however . Also even if someone got in just because he new residency director , he ll not be a total dumb ass . He might not be the brightest bulbs in town , but he ll at least be passable .