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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 28 Sep 2011 23:34
by shyamd
Pakistan will be forced to retaliate, CIA chief told
By Kamran Yousaf
Published: September 28, 2011
"This so-called ally [Pakistan] continues to take billions in US aid, while at the same time supports militants who attack us," US Congressman Ted Poe.
"This so-called ally [Pakistan] continues to take billions in US aid, while at the same time supports militants who attack us," US Congressman Ted Poe. " Pakistan has the capability to give a ‘befitting response’ to any attempts by the US to invade the tribal areas," Senate Standing Committee on Defence chairman Javed Ashraf Qazi.
ISLAMABAD:
The effort to ensure that diplomacy and calmer heads prevail at a time of fragile relations between Pakistan and the United States is on. However, the effort notwithstanding, Islamabad has made it clear to Washington that, if it comes down to it, Pakistan will be forced to retaliate if American forces attempt to launch a unilateral strike on the country’s tribal belt.
The message was personally delivered by Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) Chief Lt General Ahmed Shuja Pasha to Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) chief General David Petraeus during his recent trip to Washington, said an official familiar with the development.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Express Tribune that Pasha had informed his counterpart that the Pakistani people will not tolerate any US misadventure and in that case the government will be left with no other option but to retaliate.
Senior ISI members, the official said, had felt ‘betrayed’ by the blunt assessment of the US Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen that the spy agency had links with the Afghan Taliban-allied Haqqani network. In a stinging remark, Mullen accused ISI of supporting one of the most feared Afghan insurgent groups to target US forces stationed in Afghanistan.
(Read: The political economy of confrontation)
But, in a closed-door meeting of the Senate Standing Committee on Defence on Tuesday, a senior ISI official said that the US was simply attempting to make Pakistan the ‘scapegoat’ to cover up its failures in neighbouring Afghanistan.
Sore wounds from the May 2 US raid in Abbottabad that killed Osama bin Laden were also reopened in the meeting when a lawmaker, quoting an ISI official, told the parliamentary panel that Pakistan will not tolerate any unilateral strike on its soil by US forces to target the alleged safe havens of the Haqqani network.
“We cannot be caught off guard this time,” the official told lawmakers, referring to the raid that embarrassed the country’s powerful security establishment about its ignorance of the world’s most wanted man’s whereabouts. “This time, we will give them a surprise if they (Americans) dare,” he said.
Speaking to reporters, committee chair Lt General (retd) Javed Ashraf Qazi confirmed that lawmakers had voiced serious concern over threats emanating from Washington. Qazi, who also served as ISI chief in the 90s, insisted that Pakistan had the capability to give a ‘befitting response’ to any attempts by the US to invade the tribal areas.
Meetings continue
A frenzy of meetings continued, meanwhile, in Islamabad. US Ambassador to Pakistan Cameron Munter is reported to have met Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir, for the second time in 24 hours, and later Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari.
The president also met Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani Zardari to discuss the situation.
A statement released by the media office of the President House said that the two leaders also discussed the all parties conference scheduled for September 29.
Reposing confidence in the ability of the democratic leadership to stand united at all times that call for unity, the president expressed hope that the country’s political leadership will be able to reach a consensus, the statement said.
Over in Washington, US Special Envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan Marc Grossman phoned the Pakistan Envoy to the US Hussain Haqqani in a bid to cool down the heated diplomatic state between the two countries.
Grossman said that the US and Pakistan were united on a wide range of issues, even though they differed over the Haqqani network.
We are funding the enemy: US congressman
Back in Washington, American congressmen were presented with an anti-Pakistan bill called the “Pakistan Accountability Act”, introduced by Congressman Ted Poe from Texas who is an outspoken critic of Pakistan.
“This legislation will freeze all US aid to Pakistan with the exception of funds that are designated to help secure nuclear weapons,” says a transcript available on the Congressman’s website.
Citing Mullen’s statement on Pakistan supporting the Haqqani network, Poe said that, “Since the discovery of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan has proven to be disloyal, deceptive and a danger to the US. This so-called ally continues to take billions in US aid, while at the same time supports militants who attack us. The US must immediately freeze all aid to Pakistan. Pakistan has made it painfully obvious that they will continue their policy of duplicity and deceit by pretending to be our ally while simultaneously promoting violent extremism. By continuing to provide aid to Pakistan, we are funding the enemy, endangering Americans and undermining our efforts in the region,” he said.
Meanwhile, the prime minister, in an interview with Reuters, also struck a defiant tone – clearly warning the US on Tuesday to stop accusing it of playing a double game with militants.
“The negative messaging, naturally that is disturbing my people,” Gilani said. “If there is messaging that is not appropriate to our friendship, then naturally it is extremely difficult to convince my public. Therefore they should be sending positive messages.”
He implied that the US’ recent ratcheting up of pressure on Pakistan reflected frustration with the war in Afghanistan. “Certainly they expected more results from Afghanistan, which they have not been able to achieve as yet,” he said. “They have not achieved what they visualized.”
(With additional reporting by Huma Imtiaz in Washington)
The french intel see that the "radical fringe" of ISI support to Haqqani to conduct these attacks on the US embassy/CIA HQ is to avenge the OBL raid.
In Seville, Mullen directly accused Kayani face to face, that ISI was supporting Haqqani. The head of one of the gulf forces in Afgh were part of that meeting, they said it was lengthy meeting and it was acrimonious with nothing concrete agreed. Typical!
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 29 Sep 2011 00:52
by RamaY
Looks like they found very damaging stuff in that Osama stash.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 29 Sep 2011 03:07
by shyamd
So is the reason why Unkil allowed TSP to deploy in northern areas?
India for greater role to ‘SCO plus' nations in Afghanistan
Sandeep Dikshit
Share · Comment (1) · print · T+
U.S. and NATO need to involve region's major players as grouping to address Afghan issue
With the assassination of Afghanistan's chief peace negotiator Burhanuddin Rabbani, India is hoping that its Russia-backed desire of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) getting itself involved as a grouping would gain traction.
The SCO Regional Forum, whose members and observers essentially enclose Afghanistan, would be an effective means of addressing some of Afghanistan's problems if it treated observers (such as India, Iran and Pakistan) and special invitees (Afghanistan) on an equal footing, said government sources here.
“That is a good regional platform,” they said of the grouping that extends a helping hand to Afghanistan, nurtures little ill will towards Iran and Pakistan and has a greater interest in stabilising the country than the West since the flow of drugs and militants from Af-Pak region directly affects their well being.
The proposal was aired by Russia and found a backer in India at a time when the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), routes ending in a funnel in Uzbekistan, is being increasingly relied upon by the West to send supplies to Afghanistan.
The SCO Regional Forum could also talk to the U.S. and the Northern Atlantic Treaty Organisation(NATO), both of which prefer to deal bilaterally with countries in Afghanistan's near neighbourhood, but now need to involve the region's major players as a grouping to address the Afghan issue.
Role of Tashkent
Recognising the crucial role that Tashkent will play in the NDN, the U.S. has already warmed up to Uzbekistan. In fact, it was the sharp U.S. reaction to the troubles in Uzbekistan's Andijan province in 2005 that led to Tashkent accelerating its involvement with the SCO.
A beginning with the SCO Regional Forum, it is felt, would stand the U.S. and NATO in good stead especially with the beginning of the drawdown of troops and equipment which arrived over nine years. But bulk of it will now have to be sent back in a much more compressed time frame of three years.
The NDN is much costlier and circuitous. However, greater reliance on it would reduce the dependence of the supplies on routes going through Pakistan that have frequently been attacked. The NDN routes go through several countries, in the case of supplies from the German base of Germershiem as many as 10. Despite these challenges, the upfront involvement of SCO countries and Turkmenistan, would greatly help in the efforts to resolve the Afghan conflict which has players linked to neighbouring countries by ethnic bonds. So far, all these countries have promised to deal only with Kabul and its nominees rather than cut deals with warlords with shared ethnicity.
In the coming days, sources expect the NDN to expand to include China. There have been reports of NATO and Beijing opening talks on a supply route via Xinxiang Province.
It is in line with this thinking that India is planning to reopen a hospital it had set up on Afghanistan's northern borders to treat Northern Alliance fighters when they took on the Taliban. India already has an air base in Tajikistan which it neither confirms nor denies. But sources speak of a base with developed infrastructure which has been used by the Tajik security forces for heavy duty operations against Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) militants.
Currently, India is taking an active interest in the SCO's Tashkent-based counter-terrorism centre where it gets to discuss the subject with four Central Asian countries besides Russia and China. “It is a great forum to do joint exercises with,'' said the sources.
The New York meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad bodes well for the development of an alternative route to Pashtun-dominated areas of Afghanistan in which India has played and will play a major role.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 29 Sep 2011 16:44
by A_Gupta
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 29 Sep 2011 19:17
by devesh
I don't see why PRC would be so interested in opening up Xinjiang for foreign traders and supply networks. this happened during the Silk Road times and one of the consequences was the rise of powerful forces in CA (Kushans, etc) which kicked out Chinese influence and contained them to China's mainland. China's ambitions to Westward expansion were always kept in check by these forces. I'm not sure why PRC wants to repeat the same experience...
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 29 Sep 2011 21:57
by JE Menon
>>I don't see why PRC would be so interested in opening up Xinjiang for foreign traders and supply networks.
Money. Leverage. Same reasons as Pakistan. Only China will be smarter about it. And they will screw the Paks in the process

Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 29 Sep 2011 22:16
by Rangudu
Obama, Uzbek leader discuss Afghan supply route
We're going to probably replace 50 percent of what we ship into Afghanistan from Pakistan, will go through the northern route, Uzbekistan," Senator Lindsey Graham, who is on the committee, told Reuters this week.
"I expect a major breakthrough between us and the Uzbeks in terms of ground and air access," Graham said.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 29 Sep 2011 22:25
by Altair
Rangudu wrote:Obama, Uzbek leader discuss Afghan supply route
We're going to probably replace 50 percent of what we ship into Afghanistan from Pakistan, will go through the northern route, Uzbekistan," Senator Lindsey Graham, who is on the committee, told Reuters this week.
"I expect a major breakthrough between us and the Uzbeks in terms of ground and air access," Graham said.
How much is 50% actually 50%? I have learnt my lesson in the past few years not to trust percentages coming out of politicians mouth.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 29 Sep 2011 23:10
by Gus
IIRC, the NDN (northern distn network) is not one route. It is actually multiple feeding points and unloading points. It may be harder to get an exact number by segregating goods received and grouping the sources.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 30 Sep 2011 03:55
by Prem
Kabul to Drop Peace Effort With Pakistan and U.S.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 45684.html
KABUL—Afghanistan plans to suspend an effort to work with Pakistan and the U.S. to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table, Afghan officials said, taking a tougher line with Pakistan after last week's assassination of Kabul's top peace negotiator.Senior U.S., Pakistani and Afghan officials had been set to meet in Kabul on Oct. 8 to discuss ways of getting insurgents into peace talks and ending the 10-year-old conflict. Afghanistan has decided to cancel the meeting, deputy national security adviser Shaida Mohammad Abdali said Thursday.Afghanistan is also shelving plans for Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani to visit Kabul .at the end of October for a meeting of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Joint Commission for Reconciliation and Peace in Afghanistan, a three-month-old initiative intended to galvanize the peace process.Pakistani officials couldn't be reached for comment on the shift by Afghanistan.Officials at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul declined to comment on Afghanistan's moves. The U.S. still plans to send Marc Grossman, the State Department's special representative for the region, to Kabul for talks next week that were meant to include the trilateral meeting, said Gavin Sundwall, a spokesman for the U.S. Embassy.Kabul hasn't abandoned its push for a negotiated end to the war, though it faced a significant setback with the assassination on Sept. 20 of the man who led those efforts, former Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani. et the decision to scuttle the trilateral meeting could complicate U.S.-led efforts to cultivate a regional dialog that would make it easier to withdraw most coalition forces as planned by late 2014."This was a turning point," Mr. Abdali said of the assassination. "Definitely it goes back to the same place: Pakistan. The phone calls go all the way from here to Quetta." Mr. Abdali said the plot to kill Mr. Rabbani was too complicated to have been carried out by insurgents alone.Pakistani officials have rejected the charges. "ISI isn't exporting any kind of terrorism to Afghanistan or aiding the Haqqani network," ISI chief Lt. Gen. Shuja Pasha told a meeting of politicians and military leaders on Thursday, according to politicians who attended..
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 30 Sep 2011 08:34
by sum
JE Menon wrote:>>I don't see why PRC would be so interested in opening up Xinjiang for foreign traders and supply networks.
Money. Leverage. Same reasons as Pakistan. Only China will be smarter about it. And they will screw the Paks in the process

But wont it open up their soft underbelly and turn the entire area into a "den of spies" ( like Nehru used to refer to Kalimpong)?
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 30 Sep 2011 09:49
by RajeshA
JE Menon wrote:>>I don't see why PRC would be so interested in opening up Xinjiang for foreign traders and supply networks.
Money. Leverage. Same reasons as Pakistan. Only China will be smarter about it. And they will screw the Paks in the process

PRC is operating far from its traditional Han areas. Chinese are not hurt by a little chaos in Xinjiang, because it allows them to go further deeper into Central Asia. Just see PoK.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 30 Sep 2011 14:54
by JE Menon
>>But wont it open up their soft underbelly and turn the entire area into a "den of spies" ( like Nehru used to refer to Kalimpong)?
Not spectacularly more than at present. Moreover, that will allow the Chinese to better monitor activities as well (they have the numbers), and in the process will further de-Islamise Xinjiang where locals will happily work with the foreigners to make some money themselves. And it will further undermine any claim anyone makes that Xinjiang is under-developed, etc.
In short, it is the considered move of a confident power....
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 30 Sep 2011 15:01
by amdavadi
al-Qaida-linked cleric al-Awlaki killed
Kiyanahi & jalal next
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 30 Sep 2011 21:53
by shyamd
India holds secret talks with Iran on gasfield
Both sides will hold the next round in Delhi in November
In a sign of revival of ties with Iran, India quietly concluded a major part of negotiations for a lucrative gas field days before Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met Iranian President Mahmound Ahmadinejad in New York and accepted an invitation from him to visit Tehran.
As is the case with all major projects with Iran, the one to develop the Farzad-B gas field was stalled for two years despite India's need for compressed natural gas. New Delhi was compelled to move following a gentle warning from Iran that it was planning to reduce the stake of Indian companies in the project.
Intensive negotiations over five days on Iran's Kish Island saw both sides negotiating the main part of the contract which had been left partly discussed when talks last broke off in November 2009, government sources told The Hindu.
Both sides will now hold the next round of talks here in November when the more important issue of internal rate of return and security of investment will be discussed.
The renewal of talks on energy projects could set the stage for purposeful discussions on the development of the Iranian port of Chabar, said to be the shortest route for sending supplies into the Pashtun-dominated southern Afghanistan. Some developments on the Chabar front such as extending the free zone area to the port are in line with Indian preconditions for expanding its capacity five times.
A short distance away from the Gwadar port in Pakistan being built by the Chinese, Chabar can be connected to the hinterland of Afghanistan as well as its major cities and even beyond to Central Asia. This could be facilitated by linking up Chabar to the Iranian border town of Milak. An Indian-built road from the corresponding Afghan border town of Zaranj then leads to the Afghan garland highway.
India had been pursuing the project for some time before it was stalled following American moves to isolate Iran. There was no response to invitations to hold talks on the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, the system of payments for importing crude from Iran was frequently changed and unsatisfying talks on Chabar.
Iran is learnt to be keeping its fingers crossed with respect to talks on the gas field given India's reluctance so far to take negotiations on any of the projects forward.
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Indian Oil hold 80 per cent stake in the block and Oil India the remaining 20 per cent. India went for talks after Iran said it was planning to shift the project to an Iranian consortium and offered only a 30 per cent stake to the ONGC.
Informed sources expected the thaw to have some impact on the situation in Afghanistan. Both countries approve a regional solution with India taking up the gauntlet for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Plus countries. The SCO consists of four Central Asian countries, besides Russia and China. The SCO Plus includes India, Iran and Pakistan as Observers and Afghanistan as a Special Invitee.
Like India, Iran is inimical to the idea of Taliban, which it sees as Sunni-dominated and anti-Shia, calling the shots in Kabul. Burdened by refugees since the conflict began in 1979, Iran is apprehensive of a fresh wave of migration from Afghanistan's Shia Hazara community in case the Taliban once again takes power. However, India is in favour of the U.S.-led forces remaining in Afghanistan for some time, Iran insists on the immediate and complete withdrawal of all foreign troops.
Sources said though these are early days, the Chabar route could be a much better alternative for taking supplies into Afghanistan. The U.S. and its allies are attempting to reduce dependence on the route through Pakistan but the alternative Northern Distribution Network with its funnel into Afghanistan at Uzbekistan is more expensive. One of the NDN route from Germany goes through as many as 10 countries before culminating in Uzbekistan. The U.S. is also talking to China for a supply route from its Xinjiang province but this too goes across forbidding terrain.
Keywords: India, Iran, secret talks, gasfield, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Iran President Mahmound Ahmadinejad
Win win. Let the US order goods from India, we can ship it to Chabahar and then take it via land into Afg.
-------
‘International forces behind Dir, Chitral attacks’
By Qaiser Butt
Published: September 29, 2011
A view of the Lowari Tunnel in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa situated between Dir and Chitral district. PHOTO: FILE
ISLAMABAD: While the foreign office remains firm in its stance that Pakistan has been forced to retaliate against Afghan militant attacks, a senior official of the defence ministry has claimed that foreign forces in Afghanistan are behind recent cross border attacks in Pakistan.
According to the official, international forces raised a Coalition Special Operation Force (CSOF) to ‘directly and indirectly attack security forces and civilians in the bordering towns of Pakistan’.
He further told The Express Tribune that Islamabad had filed formal complaints with the US and Nato against armed attacks on its security forces in Dir and Chitral. “We are waiting for their reply,” he added while requesting anonymity.
American news website the Long War Journal in a report last week confirmed that the CSOF was fighting against the Taliban in Afganistan’s Nuristan province – an area mostly under the control of the Taliban and other allied fighting groups.
Furthermore, noted strategy expert Brig Shaukat Qadir told The Express Tribune that the CSOF, which, he said, was established by the US to sponsor violence in Pakistan, was used by foreign forces to attack Pakistani bordering towns.
Meanwhile, a senior official in the foreign affairs ministry has confirmed that several rockets were recently fired as ‘retaliatory action’ on militants by Pakistani security forces in the Afghan province of Kunar.
The official made it clear that the attacks were part of retaliatory action against the militants who in the last two months have been constantly attacking Pakistani security forces and defence installations in Dir and Chitral from Kunar.
While the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa government has repeatedly blamed US and Nato forces in Afghanistan for sponsoring militant attacks on civilian and security forces in Dir and Chitral, the foreign affairs ministry refrains from accusing foreign troops.
“We are aware that a third party is directly involved in anti-Pakistan violence in our tribal regions,” the source said while requesting anonymity.
Ruling out Afghanistan
“Islamabad is aware that the Afghan government is not responsible for the border violations,” the foreign office source said, adding that a militarily fragile country would not attack Pakistan on its own.
He also referred to the recent statement by the Afghan foreign ministry’s spokesman regarding the ongoing tug-of-war between Pakistan and the United States. He said Kabul was perturbed by the development. “The Afghan foreign ministry’s deputy spokesman Dr Faramarz Tamanna said that Afghanistan welcomes any regional and international pressure on Pakistan but believes that a deterioration of relationship between America and Pakistan can’t help regional peace”.
Pakistan’s foreign office believed that peace between Islamabad and Kabul was much more in the interest of Afghanistan. He said that after the recapture of the Waigal district in Nuristan by Afghani Taliban in March this year, foreign forces in Afghanistan sponsored attacks on the Pakistani bordering towns.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 01 Oct 2011 10:10
by Prem
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/09/30 ... for-talks/
Norway: Afghanistan's Neighbors Meet for Talks
OSLO, Norway-- Afghan officials met diplomats Friday from Pakistan, Iran, India and other key powers involved in the region to discuss ways forward for the war-battered nation, an official said.Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Jawed Ludin told reporters that cooperation between neighboring countries was necessary to find a solution to the conflict.
"Without regional collaboration ... to really come together and address these problems jointly, we won't succeed," Ludin said, adding that the wars Afghanistan has experienced over the past few decades also affected other countries.The one-day Oslo meeting, facilitated by Norway and Turkey, included diplomats from the U.S. and other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, with 14 regional countries also attending.The parties will meet again in the Afghan capital, Kabul, in two weeks time.Ludin said the aim of the Oslo and Kabul meetings was to agree on regional cooperation, including how to tackle terrorism, extremism and narcotics in the region, before a Nov. 2 conference in Istanbul, Turkey, where regional security and the transition in Afghanistan will be discussed.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 01 Oct 2011 17:50
by A_Gupta
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 01 Oct 2011 18:48
by sum
Afghan officials met diplomats Friday from Pakistan, Iran, India and other key powers involved in the region to discuss ways forward for the war-battered nation, an official said.Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Jawed Ludin told reporters that cooperation between neighboring countries was necessary to find a solution to the conflict.
Norway again?
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 01 Oct 2011 23:11
by Altair
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-15136007
BBC wrote:A senior leader of the militant Haqqani network, Haji Mali Khan, has been captured in Afghanistan, the Nato-led international force Isaf has said.Haji Mali Khan is the senior commander in Afghanistan for the Haqqani network, blamed for some recent Afghan attacks and accused of links to Pakistan.
He is also a revered elder of the clan, the uncle of the network's leader, Siraj Haqqani, and served as an emissary between the Haqqanis and Baitullah Mehsud
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 04 Oct 2011 00:18
by shyamd
Whats in the deal between India - Afghanistan?
Its more symbolic than anything else imo - it doesnt really change much (we are doing alot of things already). Lots of the European countries will also be signing similar agreements. I think this agreement is to scare Pindi GHQ. They will train the police and the army - perhaps intel coop. Most of these are going on anyway.
Meanwhile the real moves that India are making are in CAS, Iran.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 04 Oct 2011 09:11
by Prem
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e2b84378 ... z1ZmdIQyV0
India offers to train Afghan police
India has offered to train Afghan police to help them prevent future terrorist attacks in a move likely to be seen as highly provocative by long-time rival Pakistan.High quality global The Indian government hopes to reach agreement with Hamid Karzai, Afhan president, on the new security training programme during his two-day visit to the Indian capital which begins on Tuesday, according to a person familiar with the offer. If Mr Karzai accepts, specialist training of high-ranking Afghan police officers in India could begin before the end of the year, according to people close to the talks.The Indian foreign ministry said that Mr Karzai’s visit to New Delhi, his second this year, was also “an opportunity for both countries to consolidate their strategic partnership and discuss bilateral, regional and global issues”.India is also hopeful of deepening its economic engagement with Afghanistan in coming weeks. A consortium of Indian companies, led by the Steel Authority of India, is bidding for an iron ore mining concession in central Afghanistan
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 04 Oct 2011 10:04
by devesh
http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/ ... tary-units
U.S. confirms attacks by Pakistani military units
Pakistani military units fired shots at American and Afghan government troops along the Afghanistan border several times over the past year, in encounters the United States has downplayed but that illustrate the fraying relations between the countries, according to officials.
On Wednesday, Afghanistan's foreign ministry issued an angry warning to Pakistan after claiming that about 300 rockets had been launched across the Pakistani border into the Nuristan and Kunar provinces of Afghanistan, killing an unspecified number of civilians.
Pakistan responded that its government was targeting insurgents belonging to Tehreek-e-Taliban, a designated terrorist group, not Afghan civilians.
But last week's cross-border fire was far from an isolated incident.
Last month, U.S. Apache helicopter crews were fired upon by Pakistan, and they returned fire, wounding at least two Pakistani soldiers, International Security Assistance Force officials said. The American aircraft were in Afghan airspace, according to an ISAF spokesman. Pakistan accused the helicopter crews of crossing the border.
That encounter was reported by ISAF, but many others are not, U.S. and Afghan officials told The Washington Examiner.
"We're not allowed to return fire to coordinates inside the Pakistan border," a military official told The Examiner on the condition he not be named. "We know it's the Pakistani military in many cases. Pakistan has been instigating, aiding Haqqani, and has been purposefully working to turn back any gains ISAF has made in the region."
Another U.S. official said, "This has been going on for some time, but because it's so sensitive it has been kept relatively quiet."
"The situation is very fluid," said one Afghan official. "They have been firing across the border. The incidents have been increasing and [Afghan] forces fire back in response."
Tension between the U.S. and Pakistan has recently reached levels not seen since the countries were thrown into the common cause of defeating al Qaeda and the Taliban after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Earlier this month, Adm. Mike Mullen, the just-retired chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, accused the Haqqani family network of being a "veritable arm" of Pakistan's military and intelligence service.
Support for active U.S. military operations against the Haqqani organization inside Pakistan has been growing in U.S. military and political circles, according to numerous reports.
Afghan forces dealt a blow to the Haqqani family late last week by capturing Haji Mali Khan, uncle of network leaders Siraj and Badruddin Haqqani and a senior Haqqani commander in Afghanistan. He was apprehended after he traveled from a stronghold in Pakistan into Afghanistan, officials said.
But that is, at best, a morale-building strike against the Haqqani network, which is estimated to control as many as 15,000 fighters.
It has been a tough year for U.S.-Pakistani relations. Pakistan arrested CIA contractor Raymond Davis in January after a deadly shooting that he said was in self-defense during a robbery; the case festered until Davis was released in mid-March. Then the U.S. mounted an elaborate mission to kill Osama bin Laden deep inside Pakistan without telling that country's leaders.
Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer and senior adviser to three U.S. presidents, said that Pakistan believes the U.S. is ready to call it quits in Afghanistan, and Pakistan is trying to "push us out faster."
Pakistan has increased the use of its Afghan proxies to carry out terror operations in an effort to exhaust U.S. and European patience at home, knowing that President Obama has called for U.S. forces to withdraw by 2014. Pakistani military leaders believe "they can weather the blowback from Washington" because the U.S. needs Pakistan's logistical supply lines stretching from Karachi to Kabul, Riedel said.
At the same time, he said, Pakistan is preparing to replace the billions of dollars of critical military aid it has been receiving from the U.S. by courting China and soliciting help from Islamic ally Saudi Arabia.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 04 Oct 2011 10:17
by sum
"We're not allowed to return fire to coordinates inside the Pakistan border," a military official told The Examiner on the condition he not be named. "We know it's the Pakistani military in many cases. Pakistan has been instigating, aiding Haqqani, and has been purposefully working to turn back any gains ISAF has made in the region."
Amir-khan seems to be looking more and more like Desh when it comes to TSP...
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 04 Oct 2011 10:30
by abhischekcc
Why do pakis get a free lunch when it comes to attacking other countries (except China)?
Because pakis, like every sociopath, believe, TRULY believe, that they are entitled to attacking and humiliating others. AND they are successful in projecting this belief onto their victims. It is a trait they share with britishers.
So what is the solution? Simple, if you have fought any school bully, you will know that they tend to bully others into accepting their self image. That is, if you accept the bully's over the top self absorbed image of himself. Once you do that, all the aggression vanishes. And all bullies have a very fragile self image. The best way to fight a bully is to let him know that you do not accept his self image. In fact, you believe another, very unflattering image of him. The bully throws a tantrum, and in the short run. expect turbulence. But in the end, he will whiperingly submit - that's what they are - puppies pretending to be wolves.
The way to deal with pakistanis is to do exactly what they do not want. And when they throw a tantrum, do exactly they 'warn' you not to do. After a few to-and-fros like this, they will collpase - because the real aim of the tantrum is not simply to make the opponent back off, it is to make him back off AND accpet paki self image. They suffer from a congenital case of civilisational inferiority complex. They do not have an inner personality to resist beyond a particular point.
If you really want to know how to deal with pakis, watch "Dog Whisperer" on NGC.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 04 Oct 2011 10:33
by Altair
sum wrote:"We're not allowed to return fire to coordinates inside the Pakistan border," a military official told The Examiner on the condition he not be named. "We know it's the Pakistani military in many cases. Pakistan has been instigating, aiding Haqqani, and has been purposefully working to turn back any gains ISAF has made in the region."
Amir-khan seems to be looking more and more like Desh when it comes to TSP...
Simple question:
Why?
Why is it so hard to get a message across?
There is understandably lot of frustration and anger in some circles in DC but the people who did not hesitate to bomb Iraq to Flintstones are not looking so good. Is it too difficult to order a bombing raid on whatever Intel is there on Haqqanis? Not with drones but with couple of B-2's to deliver a punch. That I am sure will get the message to the other end.
I am getting too tired of the bull$hit being thrown around. Politics is bull$hit. Just let the military do their goddamn job and this all will be over before Christmas. I promise.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 04 Oct 2011 19:08
by Rangudu
A US think-tanker on Twitter:
Pakistan to launch new matching program in Afghanistan: India offers to train police, and then Pakistan offers to bomb them
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 04 Oct 2011 19:54
by devesh
http://www.realclearworld.com/news/reut ... istan.html
Analysis: China seeks profit, shuns politics, in Afghanistan
The Chinese passengers boarding the weekly Ariana Flight 332 from the remote western city of Urumqi to Kabul speak volumes about ties between a rising China, the world's number two economy, and its desperately poor and unstable neighbor, Afghanistan.
Of at least nine Chinese, six were heading for a China-funded copper mine, two were working for a Chinese telecom equipment maker and one was the boss of a Chinese restaurant, struggling to check in several boxes of illicit supplies, from alcohol to frozen pork.
"The situation is not as bad as news reports suggest, and I am hoping to make money," said Li Xiaofeng, the restaurant owner, who is from the eastern Chinese province of Zhejiang and opened his restaurant in Kabul last year.
He is contributing to a tiny but growing trade flow between China and Afghanistan, which many in Kabul hope could be the country's financial salvation as Western troops head home.
Bilateral trade between China and Afghanistan is currently just a fraction of trade with other "stans" -- the turnover of $114.9 million in the year through July was 2 percent of Sino-Pakistan trade.
But the rich mineral reserves lying untapped in Afghanistan after decades of war are a tempting and potentially lucrative lure for resource-hungry China, whose companies have already shown an ability to operate profitably in hostile environments.
A Chinese consortium in 2008 won Afghanistan's first major mining contract, a deal to develop the Aynak copper deposits.
The state-owned parent company of Metallurgical Corp of China Ltd (MCC) and China's largest copper producer, Jiangxi Copper, are developing the mine, estimated to hold up to nine million tonnes.
The project is the biggest component of plans to wean Afghanistan off foreign aid that currently makes up most of the government budget. But progress has been slower than expected.
"Officials in Kabul always said yes, but on the site, there are always a lot of problems to handle," one MCC official, who asked for anonymity, told Reuters.
MCC said in a statement that construction workers were currently idle as archaeological preservation works on a Buddhist monastery were under way.
NO POLITICAL, MILITARY COMMITMENT
The slow development may actually suit some officials back in Beijing, who are anxious to avoid a military or security role in the central Asian country.
China wants to stay out of the diplomatic spotlight in Afghanistan, said He Ming, deputy dean at East China Normal University's international studies college, who recently held an academic conference on Afghanistan.
"It's quite dangerous for China to play an active role in Afghanistan," he said, referring to the expense and controversy that followed most foreign intervention in Afghanistan in recent decades -- whether Soviet or Western-led.
"It's okay for Chinese companies to start up projects there, but if you are talking about political influence ... I don't think China has the necessary conditions and abilities."
Beijing's ambiguous attitude to Kabul shows in official hesitance to open the border with Afghanistan. The frontier lies on a remote 76-km (47-mile) stretch of land at the end of the narrow valleys of the Wakhan Corridor.
But a dirt road leading up near China's side of a high pass -- reputedly used by Marco Polo -- is not matched on the Afghan side, where farmers and herders still live much as they did centuries ago.
China fears the spread of Islamic militancy from Afghanistan into its restive Western Xinjiang region, home to millions of Uighur Muslims, and instability in Afghanistan.
So it has an interest in Afghanistan's future, but has also watched the Soviet Union and the United States flounder there. As a result, Beijing plans to steer well clear of serious political or military engagement.
"China hopes there will be peace in Afghanistan, but as for what conditions there should be for peace, China has no seat on the negotiating table," said Ye Hailin, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing.
He added that Pakistan, rather than Afghanistan, was always Beijing's top choice for exerting influence in the region.
"In China, the phrase 'Af-Pak' does not exist," he said, referring to a term often used by Western diplomats and policy-makers, who consider the neighbors and their problems so closely linked they should be tackled together.
"Pakistan is a big Muslim sovereign nation; Afghanistan is a war-torn country eagerly awaiting reconstruction."
RESOURCE HUNT MUST GO ON
But the wait-and-see stance of Beijing when it comes to politics and security has not deterred Chinese firms' hunt for precious resources and profit.
In September, the China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), China's state-owned oil giant, was chosen as a preferred bidder for an oil field in northern Afghanistan.
"China has no choice, it has to go out to find resources to ensure energy security," said Lin Boqiang, director of think-tank the Center for Chinese Energy Economics Research.
"For China's state oil giants, they know clearly that they must take the risks, including risks in Afghanistan."
Chinese firms already have a stake in nearly 40 projects in Afghanistan, with contracts worth nearly $500 million at the end of June, according to Wu Gangchen, the commercial counselor at the Chinese Embassy.
"Reconstruction means markets, reconstruction means opportunity," Wu was quoted as saying in a recent interview with Beijing-based newspaper the International Business Daily.
He urged Chinese investors to keep their eyes open for possible deals in Afghanistan, particularly in the sectors of "energy, infrastructure, trade, service and processing."
CNPC appears to agree, and if it can finalize its intended oil deal with Kabul as expected in mid-October, it would be a good news for national airline Ariana as well. On the sunny Thursday flight, only about a third of the seats were taken.
(Editing by Emma Graham-Harrison)
looks like PRC is drinking the cool aid provided by Pakis. Pak is a "big" "sovereign" and "stable" country....onlee....
how does this tie into the recent news about opening up Xinjiang. I am still skeptical of this and believe that PRC will not risk exposing its buffer zones to the chaos of Af-Pak. PRC can't afford any spillover effects, especially as the heartland is starting to see signs of "instability".
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 04 Oct 2011 20:02
by ramana
Who is paying for those 40 projects in Afghanistan? Is it Hu or unkil?
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 04 Oct 2011 23:06
by RamaY
BBC: Afghanistan and India sign 'strategic partnership'
The leaders of Afghanistan and India have signed a strategic partnership agreement during a visit by President Hamid Karzai to Delhi.
Mr Karzai met Indian PM Manmohan Singh, who said violence in Afghanistan was undermining security in South Asia.
He also said that India would "stand by Afghanistan" when foreign troops withdraw from the country in 2014.
Mr Karzai's visit follows a series of attacks which have damaged ties between Kabul and India's rival, Pakistan.
Correspondents say the increasingly close relationship between Kabul and Delhi will be viewed with some suspicion by Pakistan, which sees Afghanistan as its backyard.
Close relationship
India is a major player in Afghanistan and has already pledged $2bn (£1.3bn) in assistance.
At a press conference in Delhi, Mr Singh said that the strategic partnership between the two countries will create an "institutional framework" so that India can help in Afghan "capacity building" in the areas of education, development and people-to-people contacts.
The pact is believed to include an Indian commitment to increase its training of Afghan security forces, including the police, although Mr Singh made no reference to that in his press conference remarks.
Mr Singh said that his Afghan counterpart had shown 'sagacious leadership'
The prime minister said that the two countries had also signed two agreements relating to Afghanistan's energy requirements which represented "a new dimension in economic relations" to enable Kabul to integrate more effectively with the Indian economy and other economies in South Asia.
He said that the people of India sympathised with Afghanistan as it sought to cope with "acts of terrorism... particularly the assassination of [peace envoy] Burhanuddin Rabbani".
President Karzai said that he was "grateful" for India's help as his country strives to overcome "violence and extremist activities".
In his statement, Mr Karzai reiterated that his government would work closely with the US, Europe and India to plan Afghanistan's future.
The BBC's Sanjoy Majumder says that Delhi is concerned about the security situation in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, especially as foreign troops begin to withdraw from the region.
India is one of Afghanistan's biggest donors, having pledged money for projects ranging from road construction to the building of the Afghan parliament - and is keen to play a bigger role.
Delhi has often accused Islamabad of links to groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Haqqani network that have carried out attacks in Afghanistan on Indian targets, including an assault on the Indian embassy in Kabul in July 2008, in which 40 people were killed.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 04 Oct 2011 23:12
by JE Menon
There are apparently several subsidiary agreements yet to be signed, going into more specifics...
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 04 Oct 2011 23:58
by ramana
First of the side agreements:
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 05 Oct 2011 01:07
by Prem
By 2015, Afghanistan duly gets it portion of annual Indian Defence budgetary allocation. By one beautiful "breastimate", it will start in 2 Billion Dollar range and move upward till 2022 and the stablized with 10Billion a year or little more than the defence budget of Paupperstan . This agreement marks the begining of the resumption of official subsidy by core to defend the periphery.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 05 Oct 2011 01:13
by Rudradev
ramana wrote:First of the side agreements:
Gaur wrote:I know that this is not the right place, but I couldn't think of the appropriate thread for this. So, mods please move this post if needed.
India agrees to train, equip Afgan Army: Sources
http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/india ... herstories
Credit where credit is due. Indian strategic community has patiently, persistently laid the foundations for this bold step; MMS, Shyam Saran and A K Antony have implemented it. Shabaash! You have done Bhishma Pitamaha proud (wish he could have lived to see this vision realised.)
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 05 Oct 2011 03:41
by member_19944
China is promoting xenxiang because they have a large industrial space built there with very few occupants. I hope I am not mixing up Chinese names but lately there have been strident tv ad campaigns on this and something pronounced 'hunan' I think.
I also saw a TV interview a week ago (CNBC) where a Chinese expert (American) said huge developments remain unoccupied in many parts of China - severely overbuilt
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 05 Oct 2011 07:48
by Altair
Credit where credit is due. Indian strategic community has patiently, persistently laid the foundations for this bold step; MMS, Shyam Saran and A K Antony have implemented it. Shabaash! You have done Bhishma Pitamaha proud (wish he could have lived to see this vision realised.)
This is definitely a bold step. I totally agree.But it must be backed up by other concrete actions else they would be slaughtered. I am sure MMS &Co, and Karzai would have calculated that there would be a retaliatory attack on Afghan forces instantly from Pakistan.
Will it be possible to deploy permanently atleast a Brigade perhaps even a division strong Indian Army with Air support in Afghanistan by 2015?
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 05 Oct 2011 07:51
by ramana
The ANA expected strength is ~250K. So what do you expect the brigade to do? More useful to get those ANA trained real well to man their Eastern frontiers. BTW this would be first time the Afghans are asking for military help. Till now those who went in without the asking got into trouble later.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 05 Oct 2011 08:29
by Altair
ramana wrote:The ANA expected strength is ~250K. So what do you expect the brigade to do? More useful to get those ANA trained real well to man their Eastern frontiers. BTW this would be first time the Afghans are asking for military help. Till now those who went in without the asking got into trouble later.
Well, we can start with a brigade and swell into a couple of divisions in a year. It is not much of strength on paper but it would give a moral boost to ANA. I say moral boost because there would be some very ugly suicide attacks on training camps and people get demoralized. Just sending couple of military advisers will surely help our cause but boots on ground is a totally different game. I think Karzai would have requested the same.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 05 Oct 2011 08:41
by Rudradev
What exactly are we going to train the ANA to do, that NATO isn't already training them to do? COIN? Or to face the TSP armed forces in conventional conflict (something that only we have experience with?)
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 05 Oct 2011 08:49
by Altair
Rudradev wrote:What exactly are we going to train the ANA to do, that NATO isn't already training them to do? COIN? Or to face the TSP armed forces in conventional conflict (something that only we have experience with?)
In plain speaking this is more abut facing a common enemy than training.
Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch
Posted: 05 Oct 2011 11:32
by shyamd
Rudradev ji, its more symbolic than anythin else. Several countries are going to sign a similar deal with Afg - I know france definitely is. The french are saying that they won't continue support post withdrawal.
Its down to how we use the agreeement. Look at the context and timing too, its just to piss off GHQ for their duplicity.
India has been making some real moves of late. The key here is support to Northern alliance or what's left of the Afg govt. As long as these 2 parties are fighting each other, J&K is safer.
Less LoC infiltration.
India is also turning up the heat against Pak, given the re-establishment of camps. IB leaked a dossier on dawood yesterday - I think GoI wants to seize the moment of US anguish at Pak perfidy.
As long as Karzai govt survives post pull out, pak has to shore up its defences on its northern borders. All this costs money.