Deterrence

[shiv]

Challenges to India's Nuclear Doctrine - Retired Indian Vice Admiral Vijay Shankar - Oct. 6, 2014.
{Very Informative. Must watch. Answers a lot of questions} - Watch the answer @ 1 hr 12 min

Thanks for the pointer. The man is erudite and very very clear. Pakis - the man is talking to you. Lets hear some bluster from your side now. You know we will follow it here and acknowledge your bravado.

[Austin]

Two things stand out in Vice Admiral retd Vijay Shankar Talk

1 ) India would opt for full scale nuclear retaliation if Pakistan tries to used nuke on smaller scale on the battle field i.e tactical nukes
2 ) If Pakistan Nukes India then India wont nuke China , it would be Indo-Pak affair.

Although he tries to make a bit of fun of Pakistan using AIP Based Submarine for launching Nuke SLCM as part of triad but I think its fine for Pakistan that cannot afford or build a nuke sub and can use Conventinal Sub as nuclear detterent but with different strategy/tactics looking at its shortcoming even with AIP , On the plus side Conventional Sub will be hard to detect.

I think he conveniently avoided US Role in Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation and blamed squarely on china which does not give the full picture may be he did not want to annoy his host.

Its a known fact that China donating Nuke to Pakistan was with tacit US approval and that US knew this since mid-80's but convinently decided to look the other way due to Pak usefulness in Afghan crisis

[ShauryaT]

I had a thought on TNW. It is being made to continue the terror of the PA on the Pakistanis themselves.

Finally had a chance to listen to the talk by Vice Admiral Vijay Shankar.

Prithvi as a strategic weapon is finally on its way out.

The military rightly IMO, does not put much faith in ABM, as part of its strategic force planning.

One part I did not hear was that India intends to keep numbers that can match its cumulative threats from nuclear armed neighbors.

Was also disappointed that China will not pay for its "Janus" faced policy. We are still playing nice.

[shiv]

Inspiring leadership in Pokharan

The year was 1989 and the Prithvi missile being developed by the DRDO was in its initial test phase then. A certain component in the missile head was to be evaluated for its operation and the Indian Air Force was asked whether the missile could be carried, under slung beneath a helicopter, and dropped from a height of four kilometers at the Pokharan firing range in the desert of Rajasthan. The requirement was indeed extraordinary, as such a mission had not come the Indian Air Force’s way earlier. The test team of our premier Aircraft Systems and Testing Establishment at Bangalore got down to doing the calculations and came up with an executable plan. The DRDO would need to make a 25 feet high stand to support the two odd tonne test vehicle; a Mi-17 helicopter would hover above it, pull it vertically out and then climb to the required altitude for the drop. This writer was fortunate to be asked to be the pilot and team leader for the trial.

[JE Menon]

^^A beautiful piece on one of the great men of India. Thanks doc.

[ramana]

So Prithvi has a tilt based fuze. the CG offset caused it to not go off in first run.

I read about this test in the Kolkata telegraph long ago. But no picture.

[ramana]

Two things stand out in Vice Admiral retd Vijay Shankar Talk

1 ) India would opt for full scale nuclear retaliation if Pakistan tries to used nuke on smaller scale on the battle field i.e tactical nukes
2 ) If Pakistan Nukes India then India wont nuke China , it would be Indo-Pak affair.

Although he tries to make a bit of fun of Pakistan using AIP Based Submarine for launching Nuke SLCM as part of triad but I think its fine for Pakistan that cannot afford or build a nuke sub and can use Conventinal Sub as nuclear detterent but with different strategy/tactics looking at its shortcoming even with AIP , On the plus side Conventional Sub will be hard to detect.

I think he conveniently avoided US Role in Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation and blamed squarely on china which does not give the full picture may be he did not want to annoy his host.

Its a known fact that China donating Nuke to Pakistan was with tacit US approval and that US knew this since mid-80's but conveniently decided to look the other way due to Pak usefulness in Afghan crisis

very good clarification by the officer.

As rise of China happens the idea of non-use of nukes has to be nuanced for they might not abide by international norms of the P5.

Principal threat is from Pakistan and has to be addressed.
By bringing in China we confuse the picture and let them think they can get away in the N+1 syndrome.

[RoyG]

So Prithvi has a tilt based fuze. the CG offset caused it to not go off in first run.

I read about this test in the Kolkata telegraph long ago. But no picture.

Did the 250 and 350 variants later incorporate the high alt fuse like the Agni series?

[RamaY]

Rji

You are right. China or for that matter 3.5 won't enter into a nuke confrontation with Desh.

Pakistan will do their bidding, on one or the other pretext.

Pakis will try to nuke advancing Indian army columns in their territory. A counter strategy would be to ensure that these advancing columns reach major Pakjabi heartland cities in a coordinated manner. Yes, this is a ridiculous idea.

There is nothing that will deter Pakis, including their termination.

So I propose a cold-blooded-doctrine (CBD). Pakistan needs Bhramaramba strategy!

Strategy will be explained in Epics thread.

[Gagan]

Benazir Bhutto returned from NoKo with 50 Kgs of Plutonium?

[Gagan]

Please notice the question that the folks at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory posed to V Admiral Vijay Shankar.
"What if pakistan uses a weapon which explodes with a low yield on indian forces..."

Everyone knows that Pakistan has 2-3 odd dozen failed bums, of low yield, more of dirty radiation devices, that will contaminate more than cause a true nuclear explosion.

[shiv]

^^A beautiful piece on one of the great men of India. Thanks doc.

The author of that piece added this

In fact in one of the later trials, the prithvi motor fired prematurely - Sqn Ldr John brought back the helicpter - 'Squadron Leader Subhash Palakuzhiyll John (20155) F (P) is on the posted strength of ASTE, Air Force since 20 May 2000 as Rotary Wing Test Pilot. In Apr 01, he was detailed to undertake flight trial of a special type of warhead over Pokharan Range. The warhead, along with its rocket motor and associated electronics, was housed in a Warhead Test Vehicle (WTV), which In turn was mounted on a 500 kg carriage plate attached to the helicopter with cables. The trials involved vertical lift of the WTV, under-slung from a Mi-17 helicopter, from a special pit. Thereafter, the WTV was to be carried and dropped from a height of four km over the designation target, for the assessment of its functioning. On 09 Apr 01, while carrying the WTV target area, its rocket motor fired prematurely, when It was still attached to the carriage plate. This resulted In the shearing-off of the retaining bolts of the carriage plate. The recoil due to the rocket motor exhaust gases made the carriage plate whip-up, into the under surface of the helicopter, resulting In the helicopter going into an uncontrolled flight, with damage to the helicopter's under surface. Sqn Ldr John valiantly faced the emergency and brought the helicopter under control. He also calmed the crewmembers and onboard observers. He, thereafter, directed the chase helicopter to locate the point of impact of the live warhead. He went on to direct the ground controllers and bomb disposal team to the point of impact so that damage on ground could be minimised and the live bomblets disposed of. He did all this, while (lawlessly carrying out his immediate task of keeping his damaged helicopter under control, and recovering it to the nearest helipad. For this act of exceptional courage, the Hon'ble President is pleased to award Vayu Sena Medal (Gallantry) to Squadron Leader Subhash Palakuzhiyil John.

[SSridhar]

Challenges to India's Nuclear Doctrine - Retired Indian Vice Admiral Vijay Shankar - Oct. 6, 2014.
{Very Informative. Must watch. Answers a lot of questions} - Watch the answer @ 1 hr 12 min

pankajs, thanks for posting this. What a presentation, what a clarity of though and what confidence. Completely in contrast with a Kidwai presentation that was posted quite some time back.

[RoyG]

Watch at 1 hr 17 min. Critical question.

IMO, he's bluffing. China wont get away scott free.

If I'm wrong and the stated policy is indeed in place, it will surely change over the next couple decades when we've properly validated our TN designs and stocked up on enough fissile material.

IMO, the Chinese have already given us the finger by giving the Pakis more reactors so that diplomacy excuse goes out the window.

[ramana]

RoyG, Read Shiv's next post. Looks like its conventional payload. hence the test at 4000m to disperse the contents over wide area. So Agni type fuzes.

The retired vice admiral is saying what is the current policy not what it will be.

[ramana]

A few posts and a point
1)

Two things stand out in Vice Admiral retd Vijay Shankar Talk

1 ) India would opt for full scale nuclear retaliation if Pakistan tries to used nuke on smaller scale on the battle field i.e tactical nukes
2 ) If Pakistan Nukes India then India wont nuke China , it would be Indo-Pak affair.

.......

I think he conveniently avoided US Role in Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation and blamed squarely on china which does not give the full picture may be he did not want to annoy his host.

Its a known fact that China donating Nuke to Pakistan was with tacit US approval and that US knew this since mid-80's but convinently decided to look the other way due to Pak usefulness in Afghan crisis

In effect India has decoupled Pak and China. By invoking China etc., the N+1 syndrome kicks in and every one is paralyzed. So by confining retaliation to Pak the problem is simplified.

Next

Why the BrahMos armed Sukhoi is bad news for India’s enemies

India has signalled its intent to strike enemy targets with devastating force early on in a conflict.

In September 2010 India’s newly constituted tri-services Strategic Forces Command (SFC) submitted a proposal to the Defence Ministry for setting up two dedicated squadrons of aircraft comprising 40 Su-30MKI air dominance fighters. The task of this “mini air force” is to deliver nuclear weapons.

The picture became clearer in October 2012 when the Cabinet Committee on Security green lighted a programme to carry out structural and software modifications on 42 Su-30MKIs and acquire 216 air-launched BrahMos missiles. Until then, the BrahMos – the product of an India-Russia joint venture – was for exclusive use by the Navy.

In March 2015 the SFC received the first of these 42 Sukhois equipped with the air launched version of the supersonic BrahMos. This is the first time that the SFC, which at present depends on the Indian Air Force (IAF) for delivering nuclear weapons under its command, is acquiring its own aerial assets.

............

Individually, the Su-30 and BrahMos are powerful weapons. But when the world’s most capable fourth generation fighter is armed with a uniquely destructive cruise missile, together they are a dramatic force multiplier.

The BrahMos’ 3000 km per second speed – literally faster than a bullet – means it hits the target with a huge amount of kinetic energy. In tests, the BrahMos has often cut warships in half and reduced ground targets to smithereens. The Sukhoi’s blistering speed will add extra launch momentum to the missile, plus the aircraft’s ability to penetrate hardened air defences means there is a greater chance for the pilot to deliver the missile on to its designated targets.

Likely targets

Considering that India’s primary enemy is Pakistan and that country’s chief backer is China, ...... these two countries are the obvious targets.

Against Pakistan, the targets are obvious. A two-squadron attack using most of the SFC’s air assets can within minutes utterly cripple the country’s command and control centres; nuclear power plants, including the Kahuta ‘Death Star’ where the majority of the “Islamic” bombs are manufactured; the Sargodha Central Ammunition Depot west of Lahore where these warheads are stored; ballistic missile bases in Gujranwala, Okara, Multan, Jhang and Dera Nawab Shah; Pakistani Army Corp headquarters in Rawalpindi; the Karachi Port, Pakistani’s only major harbour and its Naval HQ; and ordinance factories that manufacture tanks and fighter aircraft.

The supersonic BrahMos armed with a conventional warhead can theoretically penetrate hardened command, control and communication centres. However, there is no guarantee these targets will be 100 per cent destroyed unless the BrahMos is nuclear tipped. A pre-emptive nuclear strike will therefore ensure that Pakistan’s offensive capability is effectively neutralised and it is never again a threat to India.

........

Why the Sukhoi-BrahMos option?

The Su-30MKI is an obvious choice. The SFC does not want untested fighters but the ones which can be relied upon to deliver nuclear-tipped missiles. The aircraft has a titanium airframe strong enough to fly a high-speed terrain following profile. The batch of 42 Sukhois will also have hardened electronic circuitry to shield them from the electromagnetic pulse of a nuclear blast.


Having a dedicated aircraft for the nuclear attack role offers India’s war planners strategic flexibility and increases the odds of success. Because ballistic missiles are used only as a weapon of last resort, they cannot really be deployed at will. Once released, they cannot be recalled and if shot down are not easily replaced. Fighter aircraft, on the other hand, can perform repeated sorties and be directed to bomb targets as they move. For instance, if Pakistan moves it warheads out of Sargodha depot, which is presumably under constant watch by Indian satellites, the Sukhois can be vectored against a column of Pakistani trucks transporting their nuclear cargo.

The SFC’s mini air force of 42 Sukhois can also launch their missiles against Pakistani targets from within Indian airspace or while flying over international waters, thereby complicating the enemy’s defences. It is a lot easier for India to destroy Pakistani war fighting capability because not only is Pakistan relatively smaller but it has also concentrated its defences in one province, Punjab.

.....

http://in.rbth.com/blogs/2015/04/20/why ... 42687.html

If you read be

Why the BrahMos armed Sukhoi is bad news for India’s enemies

India has signalled its intent to strike enemy targets with devastating force early on in a conflict.

In September 2010 India’s newly constituted tri-services Strategic Forces Command (SFC) submitted a proposal to the Defence Ministry for setting up two dedicated squadrons of aircraft comprising 40 Su-30MKI air dominance fighters. The task of this “mini air force” is to deliver nuclear weapons.

The picture became clearer in October 2012 when the Cabinet Committee on Security green lighted a programme to carry out structural and software modifications on 42 Su-30MKIs and acquire 216 air-launched BrahMos missiles. Until then, the BrahMos – the product of an India-Russia joint venture – was for exclusive use by the Navy.

In March 2015 the SFC received the first of these 42 Sukhois equipped with the air launched version of the supersonic BrahMos. This is the first time that the SFC, which at present depends on the Indian Air Force (IAF) for delivering nuclear weapons under its command, is acquiring its own aerial assets.

Currently, India’s nuclear delivery system is based on land-based ballistic missiles such as the Agni and Prithvi plus the IAF’s nuclear-capable Mirage 2000, Su-30 MKI and Jaguar fighter-bombers. The final element of the nuclear triad, submarine-launched missiles, is still being tested.

Individually, the Su-30 and BrahMos are powerful weapons. But when the world’s most capable fourth generation fighter is armed with a uniquely destructive cruise missile, together they are a dramatic force multiplier.

The BrahMos’ 3000 km per second speed – literally faster than a bullet – means it hits the target with a huge amount of kinetic energy. In tests, the BrahMos has often cut warships in half and reduced ground targets to smithereens. The Sukhoi’s blistering speed will add extra launch momentum to the missile, plus the aircraft’s ability to penetrate hardened air defences means there is a greater chance for the pilot to deliver the missile on to its designated targets.

Likely targets

Considering that India’s primary enemy is Pakistan and that country’s chief backer is China, against which India has fought two conflicts – losing in 1962 and winning in 1967 – these two countries are the obvious targets.

Against Pakistan, the targets are obvious. A two-squadron attack using most of the SFC’s air assets can within minutes utterly cripple the country’s command and control centres; nuclear power plants, including the Kahuta ‘Death Star’ where the majority of the “Islamic” bombs are manufactured; the Sargodha Central Ammunition Depot west of Lahore where these warheads are stored; ballistic missile bases in Gujranwala, Okara, Multan, Jhang and Dera Nawab Shah; Pakistani Army Corp headquarters in Rawalpindi; the Karachi Port, Pakistani’s only major harbour and its Naval HQ; and ordinance factories that manufacture tanks and fighter aircraft.

The supersonic BrahMos armed with a conventional warhead can theoretically penetrate hardened command, control and communication centres. However, there is no guarantee these targets will be 100 per cent destroyed unless the BrahMos is nuclear tipped. A pre-emptive nuclear strike will therefore ensure that Pakistan’s offensive capability is effectively neutralised and it is never again a threat to India.

Against China, the Sukhoi-BrahMos one-two punch seems counter-intuitive as Chinese targets are located deep inland or on the coast. However, the Su-30MKI has a maximum range of 3000 km (extendable to 8000 km with in-flight refuelling). Now add the BrahMos’s 300 km reach and India can hit targets 3300 km inside China.

Why the Sukhoi-BrahMos option?

The Su-30MKI is an obvious choice. The SFC does not want untested fighters but the ones which can be relied upon to deliver nuclear-tipped missiles. The aircraft has a titanium airframe strong enough to fly a high-speed terrain following profile. The batch of 42 Sukhois will also have hardened electronic circuitry to shield them from the electromagnetic pulse of a nuclear blast.

Having a dedicated aircraft for the nuclear attack role offers India’s war planners strategic flexibility and increases the odds of success. Because ballistic missiles are used only as a weapon of last resort, they cannot really be deployed at will. Once released, they cannot be recalled and if shot down are not easily replaced. Fighter aircraft, on the other hand, can perform repeated sorties and be directed to bomb targets as they move. For instance, if Pakistan moves it warheads out of Sargodha depot, which is presumably under constant watch by Indian satellites, the Sukhois can be vectored against a column of Pakistani trucks transporting their nuclear cargo.

The SFC’s mini air force of 42 Sukhois can also launch their missiles against Pakistani targets from within Indian airspace or while flying over international waters, thereby complicating the enemy’s defences. It is a lot easier for India to destroy Pakistani war fighting capability because not only is Pakistan relatively smaller but it has also concentrated its defences in one province, Punjab.

Further developments

Because heavy modifications were necessary for integrating such a heavy missile onto the Su-30MKI, initially it seemed to make little sense to deploy a single missile. Aviation Week reports that initially even Sukhoi was reluctant to go along. That prompted HAL to go solo, but Aviation Week says Sukhoi came on board in 2011. The Russian side provided HAL with technical consultancy especially for the modifications to the fuselage in order to accommodate the 9-metre-long missile.

“Work is also underway on a modified lighter and smaller-diameter version of the BrahMos for deployment on the Indian navy’s MiG-29K and, potentially, the Dassault Rafale,” says Aviation Week.

And signalling the country’s immunity from western sanctions, DRDO scientists say the 300 km cap on the missile’s range will be removed. The next generation BrahMos is likely to be a longer range weapon. And with the planned increased in speed, the missile will have considerably enhanced kinetic energy despite its smaller size optimised for relatively smaller aircraft such as the MiG-29.

That’s really bad news if you are in the Sukhoi-BrahMos crosshairs.


Source : RUSSIA & INDIA REPORT

http://in.rbth.com/blogs/2015/04/20/why ... 42687.html

If you read be

Why the BrahMos armed Sukhoi is bad news for India’s enemies

India has signalled its intent to strike enemy targets with devastating force early on in a conflict.

In September 2010 India’s newly constituted tri-services Strategic Forces Command (SFC) submitted a proposal to the Defence Ministry for setting up two dedicated squadrons of aircraft comprising 40 Su-30MKI air dominance fighters. The task of this “mini air force” is to deliver nuclear weapons.

The picture became clearer in October 2012 when the Cabinet Committee on Security green lighted a programme to carry out structural and software modifications on 42 Su-30MKIs and acquire 216 air-launched BrahMos missiles. Until then, the BrahMos – the product of an India-Russia joint venture – was for exclusive use by the Navy.

In March 2015 the SFC received the first of these 42 Sukhois equipped with the air launched version of the supersonic BrahMos. This is the first time that the SFC, which at present depends on the Indian Air Force (IAF) for delivering nuclear weapons under its command, is acquiring its own aerial assets.

Currently, India’s nuclear delivery system is based on land-based ballistic missiles such as the Agni and Prithvi plus the IAF’s nuclear-capable Mirage 2000, Su-30 MKI and Jaguar fighter-bombers. The final element of the nuclear triad, submarine-launched missiles, is still being tested.

Individually, the Su-30 and BrahMos are powerful weapons. But when the world’s most capable fourth generation fighter is armed with a uniquely destructive cruise missile, together they are a dramatic force multiplier.

The BrahMos’ 3000 km per second speed – literally faster than a bullet – means it hits the target with a huge amount of kinetic energy. In tests, the BrahMos has often cut warships in half and reduced ground targets to smithereens. The Sukhoi’s blistering speed will add extra launch momentum to the missile, plus the aircraft’s ability to penetrate hardened air defences means there is a greater chance for the pilot to deliver the missile on to its designated targets.

Likely targets

Considering that India’s primary enemy is Pakistan and that country’s chief backer is China, against which India has fought two conflicts – losing in 1962 and winning in 1967 – these two countries are the obvious targets.

Against Pakistan, the targets are obvious. A two-squadron attack using most of the SFC’s air assets can within minutes utterly cripple the country’s command and control centres; nuclear power plants, including the Kahuta ‘Death Star’ where the majority of the “Islamic” bombs are manufactured; the Sargodha Central Ammunition Depot west of Lahore where these warheads are stored; ballistic missile bases in Gujranwala, Okara, Multan, Jhang and Dera Nawab Shah; Pakistani Army Corp headquarters in Rawalpindi; the Karachi Port, Pakistani’s only major harbour and its Naval HQ; and ordinance factories that manufacture tanks and fighter aircraft.

The supersonic BrahMos armed with a conventional warhead can theoretically penetrate hardened command, control and communication centres. However, there is no guarantee these targets will be 100 per cent destroyed unless the BrahMos is nuclear tipped. A pre-emptive nuclear strike will therefore ensure that Pakistan’s offensive capability is effectively neutralised and it is never again a threat to India.

Against China, the Sukhoi-BrahMos one-two punch seems counter-intuitive as Chinese targets are located deep inland or on the coast. However, the Su-30MKI has a maximum range of 3000 km (extendable to 8000 km with in-flight refuelling). Now add the BrahMos’s 300 km reach and India can hit targets 3300 km inside China.

Why the Sukhoi-BrahMos option?

The Su-30MKI is an obvious choice. The SFC does not want untested fighters but the ones which can be relied upon to deliver nuclear-tipped missiles. The aircraft has a titanium airframe strong enough to fly a high-speed terrain following profile. The batch of 42 Sukhois will also have hardened electronic circuitry to shield them from the electromagnetic pulse of a nuclear blast.

Having a dedicated aircraft for the nuclear attack role offers India’s war planners strategic flexibility and increases the odds of success. Because ballistic missiles are used only as a weapon of last resort, they cannot really be deployed at will. Once released, they cannot be recalled and if shot down are not easily replaced. Fighter aircraft, on the other hand, can perform repeated sorties and be directed to bomb targets as they move. For instance, if Pakistan moves it warheads out of Sargodha depot, which is presumably under constant watch by Indian satellites, the Sukhois can be vectored against a column of Pakistani trucks transporting their nuclear cargo.

The SFC’s mini air force of 42 Sukhois can also launch their missiles against Pakistani targets from within Indian airspace or while flying over international waters, thereby complicating the enemy’s defences. It is a lot easier for India to destroy Pakistani war fighting capability because not only is Pakistan relatively smaller but it has also concentrated its defences in one province, Punjab.

Further developments

Because heavy modifications were necessary for integrating such a heavy missile onto the Su-30MKI, initially it seemed to make little sense to deploy a single missile. Aviation Week reports that initially even Sukhoi was reluctant to go along. That prompted HAL to go solo, but Aviation Week says Sukhoi came on board in 2011. The Russian side provided HAL with technical consultancy especially for the modifications to the fuselage in order to accommodate the 9-metre-long missile.

“Work is also underway on a modified lighter and smaller-diameter version of the BrahMos for deployment on the Indian navy’s MiG-29K and, potentially, the Dassault Rafale,” says Aviation Week.

And signalling the country’s immunity from western sanctions, DRDO scientists say the 300 km cap on the missile’s range will be removed. The next generation BrahMos is likely to be a longer range weapon. And with the planned increased in speed, the missile will have considerably enhanced kinetic energy despite its smaller size optimised for relatively smaller aircraft such as the MiG-29.

That’s really bad news if you are in the Sukhoi-BrahMos crosshairs.


Source : RUSSIA & INDIA REPORT

http://in.rbth.com/blogs/2015/04/20/why ... 42687.html

If you read be

Why the BrahMos armed Sukhoi is bad news for India’s enemies

India has signalled its intent to strike enemy targets with devastating force early on in a conflict.

In September 2010 India’s newly constituted tri-services Strategic Forces Command (SFC) submitted a proposal to the Defence Ministry for setting up two dedicated squadrons of aircraft comprising 40 Su-30MKI air dominance fighters. The task of this “mini air force” is to deliver nuclear weapons.

The picture became clearer in October 2012 when the Cabinet Committee on Security green lighted a programme to carry out structural and software modifications on 42 Su-30MKIs and acquire 216 air-launched BrahMos missiles. Until then, the BrahMos – the product of an India-Russia joint venture – was for exclusive use by the Navy.

In March 2015 the SFC received the first of these 42 Sukhois equipped with the air launched version of the supersonic BrahMos. This is the first time that the SFC, which at present depends on the Indian Air Force (IAF) for delivering nuclear weapons under its command, is acquiring its own aerial assets.

Currently, India’s nuclear delivery system is based on land-based ballistic missiles such as the Agni and Prithvi plus the IAF’s nuclear-capable Mirage 2000, Su-30 MKI and Jaguar fighter-bombers. The final element of the nuclear triad, submarine-launched missiles, is still being tested.

Individually, the Su-30 and BrahMos are powerful weapons. But when the world’s most capable fourth generation fighter is armed with a uniquely destructive cruise missile, together they are a dramatic force multiplier.

The BrahMos’ 3000 km per second speed – literally faster than a bullet – means it hits the target with a huge amount of kinetic energy. In tests, the BrahMos has often cut warships in half and reduced ground targets to smithereens. The Sukhoi’s blistering speed will add extra launch momentum to the missile, plus the aircraft’s ability to penetrate hardened air defences means there is a greater chance for the pilot to deliver the missile on to its designated targets.

Likely targets

Considering that India’s primary enemy is Pakistan and that country’s chief backer is China, against which India has fought two conflicts – losing in 1962 and winning in 1967 – these two countries are the obvious targets.

Against Pakistan, the targets are obvious. A two-squadron attack using most of the SFC’s air assets can within minutes utterly cripple the country’s command and control centres; nuclear power plants, including the Kahuta ‘Death Star’ where the majority of the “Islamic” bombs are manufactured; the Sargodha Central Ammunition Depot west of Lahore where these warheads are stored; ballistic missile bases in Gujranwala, Okara, Multan, Jhang and Dera Nawab Shah; Pakistani Army Corp headquarters in Rawalpindi; the Karachi Port, Pakistani’s only major harbour and its Naval HQ; and ordinance factories that manufacture tanks and fighter aircraft.

The supersonic BrahMos armed with a conventional warhead can theoretically penetrate hardened command, control and communication centres. However, there is no guarantee these targets will be 100 per cent destroyed unless the BrahMos is nuclear tipped. A pre-emptive nuclear strike will therefore ensure that Pakistan’s offensive capability is effectively neutralised and it is never again a threat to India.

Against China, the Sukhoi-BrahMos one-two punch seems counter-intuitive as Chinese targets are located deep inland or on the coast. However, the Su-30MKI has a maximum range of 3000 km (extendable to 8000 km with in-flight refuelling). Now add the BrahMos’s 300 km reach and India can hit targets 3300 km inside China.

Why the Sukhoi-BrahMos option?

The Su-30MKI is an obvious choice. The SFC does not want untested fighters but the ones which can be relied upon to deliver nuclear-tipped missiles. The aircraft has a titanium airframe strong enough to fly a high-speed terrain following profile. The batch of 42 Sukhois will also have hardened electronic circuitry to shield them from the electromagnetic pulse of a nuclear blast.

Having a dedicated aircraft for the nuclear attack role offers India’s war planners strategic flexibility and increases the odds of success. Because ballistic missiles are used only as a weapon of last resort, they cannot really be deployed at will. Once released, they cannot be recalled and if shot down are not easily replaced. Fighter aircraft, on the other hand, can perform repeated sorties and be directed to bomb targets as they move. For instance, if Pakistan moves it warheads out of Sargodha depot, which is presumably under constant watch by Indian satellites, the Sukhois can be vectored against a column of Pakistani trucks transporting their nuclear cargo.

The SFC’s mini air force of 42 Sukhois can also launch their missiles against Pakistani targets from within Indian airspace or while flying over international waters, thereby complicating the enemy’s defences. It is a lot easier for India to destroy Pakistani war fighting capability because not only is Pakistan relatively smaller but it has also concentrated its defences in one province, Punjab.

Further developments

Because heavy modifications were necessary for integrating such a heavy missile onto the Su-30MKI, initially it seemed to make little sense to deploy a single missile. Aviation Week reports that initially even Sukhoi was reluctant to go along. That prompted HAL to go solo, but Aviation Week says Sukhoi came on board in 2011. The Russian side provided HAL with technical consultancy especially for the modifications to the fuselage in order to accommodate the 9-metre-long missile.

“Work is also underway on a modified lighter and smaller-diameter version of the BrahMos for deployment on the Indian navy’s MiG-29K and, potentially, the Dassault Rafale,” says Aviation Week.

And signalling the country’s immunity from western sanctions, DRDO scientists say the 300 km cap on the missile’s range will be removed. The next generation BrahMos is likely to be a longer range weapon. And with the planned increased in speed, the missile will have considerably enhanced kinetic energy despite its smaller size optimised for relatively smaller aircraft such as the MiG-29.

That’s really bad news if you are in the Sukhoi-BrahMos crosshairs.


Source : RUSSIA & INDIA REPORT

http://in.rbth.com/blogs/2015/04/20/why ... 42687.html

Why the BrahMos armed Sukhoi is bad news for India’s enemies

India has signalled its intent to strike enemy targets with devastating force early on in a conflict.

In September 2010 India’s newly constituted tri-services Strategic Forces Command (SFC) submitted a proposal to the Defence Ministry for setting up two dedicated squadrons of aircraft comprising 40 Su-30MKI air dominance fighters. The task of this “mini air force” is to deliver nuclear weapons.

The picture became clearer in October 2012 when the Cabinet Committee on Security green lighted a programme to carry out structural and software modifications on 42 Su-30MKIs and acquire 216 air-launched BrahMos missiles. Until then, the BrahMos – the product of an India-Russia joint venture – was for exclusive use by the Navy.

In March 2015 the SFC received the first of these 42 Sukhois equipped with the air launched version of the supersonic BrahMos. This is the first time that the SFC, which at present depends on the Indian Air Force (IAF) for delivering nuclear weapons under its command, is acquiring its own aerial assets.

Currently, India’s nuclear delivery system is based on land-based ballistic missiles such as the Agni and Prithvi plus the IAF’s nuclear-capable Mirage 2000, Su-30 MKI and Jaguar fighter-bombers. The final element of the nuclear triad, submarine-launched missiles, is still being tested.

Individually, the Su-30 and BrahMos are powerful weapons. But when the world’s most capable fourth generation fighter is armed with a uniquely destructive cruise missile, together they are a dramatic force multiplier.

The BrahMos’ 3000 km per second speed – literally faster than a bullet – means it hits the target with a huge amount of kinetic energy. In tests, the BrahMos has often cut warships in half and reduced ground targets to smithereens. The Sukhoi’s blistering speed will add extra launch momentum to the missile, plus the aircraft’s ability to penetrate hardened air defences means there is a greater chance for the pilot to deliver the missile on to its designated targets.

Likely targets

Considering that India’s primary enemy is Pakistan and that country’s chief backer is China, against which India has fought two conflicts – losing in 1962 and winning in 1967 – these two countries are the obvious targets.

Against Pakistan, the targets are obvious. A two-squadron attack using most of the SFC’s air assets can within minutes utterly cripple the country’s command and control centres; nuclear power plants, including the Kahuta ‘Death Star’ where the majority of the “Islamic” bombs are manufactured; the Sargodha Central Ammunition Depot west of Lahore where these warheads are stored; ballistic missile bases in Gujranwala, Okara, Multan, Jhang and Dera Nawab Shah; Pakistani Army Corp headquarters in Rawalpindi; the Karachi Port, Pakistani’s only major harbour and its Naval HQ; and ordinance factories that manufacture tanks and fighter aircraft.

The supersonic BrahMos armed with a conventional warhead can theoretically penetrate hardened command, control and communication centres. However, there is no guarantee these targets will be 100 per cent destroyed unless the BrahMos is nuclear tipped. A pre-emptive nuclear strike will therefore ensure that Pakistan’s offensive capability is effectively neutralised and it is never again a threat to India.

Against China, the Sukhoi-BrahMos one-two punch seems counter-intuitive as Chinese targets are located deep inland or on the coast. However, the Su-30MKI has a maximum range of 3000 km (extendable to 8000 km with in-flight refuelling). Now add the BrahMos’s 300 km reach and India can hit targets 3300 km inside China.

Why the Sukhoi-BrahMos option?

The Su-30MKI is an obvious choice. The SFC does not want untested fighters but the ones which can be relied upon to deliver nuclear-tipped missiles. The aircraft has a titanium airframe strong enough to fly a high-speed terrain following profile. The batch of 42 Sukhois will also have hardened electronic circuitry to shield them from the electromagnetic pulse of a nuclear blast.

Having a dedicated aircraft for the nuclear attack role offers India’s war planners strategic flexibility and increases the odds of success. Because ballistic missiles are used only as a weapon of last resort, they cannot really be deployed at will. Once released, they cannot be recalled and if shot down are not easily replaced. Fighter aircraft, on the other hand, can perform repeated sorties and be directed to bomb targets as they move. For instance, if Pakistan moves it warheads out of Sargodha depot, which is presumably under constant watch by Indian satellites, the Sukhois can be vectored against a column of Pakistani trucks transporting their nuclear cargo.

The SFC’s mini air force of 42 Sukhois can also launch their missiles against Pakistani targets from within Indian airspace or while flying over international waters, thereby complicating the enemy’s defences. It is a lot easier for India to destroy Pakistani war fighting capability because not only is Pakistan relatively smaller but it has also concentrated its defences in one province, Punjab.

Further developments

Because heavy modifications were necessary for integrating such a heavy missile onto the Su-30MKI, initially it seemed to make little sense to deploy a single missile. Aviation Week reports that initially even Sukhoi was reluctant to go along. That prompted HAL to go solo, but Aviation Week says Sukhoi came on board in 2011. The Russian side provided HAL with technical consultancy especially for the modifications to the fuselage in order to accommodate the 9-metre-long missile.

“Work is also underway on a modified lighter and smaller-diameter version of the BrahMos for deployment on the Indian navy’s MiG-29K and, potentially, the Dassault Rafale,” says Aviation Week.

And signalling the country’s immunity from western sanctions, DRDO scientists say the 300 km cap on the missile’s range will be removed. The next generation BrahMos is likely to be a longer range weapon. And with the planned increased in speed, the missile will have considerably enhanced kinetic energy despite its smaller size optimised for relatively smaller aircraft such as the MiG-29.

That’s really bad news if you are in the Sukhoi-BrahMos crosshairs.


Source : RUSSIA & INDIA REPORT

http://in.rbth.com/blogs/2015/04/20/why ... 42687.html

If you read beween

Why the BrahMos armed Sukhoi is bad news for India’s enemies

India has signalled its intent to strike enemy targets with devastating force early on in a conflict.

In September 2010 India’s newly constituted tri-services Strategic Forces Command (SFC) submitted a proposal to the Defence Ministry for setting up two dedicated squadrons of aircraft comprising 40 Su-30MKI air dominance fighters. The task of this “mini air force” is to deliver nuclear weapons.

The picture became clearer in October 2012 when the Cabinet Committee on Security green lighted a programme to carry out structural and software modifications on 42 Su-30MKIs and acquire 216 air-launched BrahMos missiles. Until then, the BrahMos – the product of an India-Russia joint venture – was for exclusive use by the Navy.

In March 2015 the SFC received the first of these 42 Sukhois equipped with the air launched version of the supersonic BrahMos. This is the first time that the SFC, which at present depends on the Indian Air Force (IAF) for delivering nuclear weapons under its command, is acquiring its own aerial assets.

Currently, India’s nuclear delivery system is based on land-based ballistic missiles such as the Agni and Prithvi plus the IAF’s nuclear-capable Mirage 2000, Su-30 MKI and Jaguar fighter-bombers. The final element of the nuclear triad, submarine-launched missiles, is still being tested.

Individually, the Su-30 and BrahMos are powerful weapons. But when the world’s most capable fourth generation fighter is armed with a uniquely destructive cruise missile, together they are a dramatic force multiplier.

The BrahMos’ 3000 km per second speed – literally faster than a bullet – means it hits the target with a huge amount of kinetic energy. In tests, the BrahMos has often cut warships in half and reduced ground targets to smithereens. The Sukhoi’s blistering speed will add extra launch momentum to the missile, plus the aircraft’s ability to penetrate hardened air defences means there is a greater chance for the pilot to deliver the missile on to its designated targets.

Likely targets

Considering that India’s primary enemy is Pakistan and that country’s chief backer is China, against which India has fought two conflicts – losing in 1962 and winning in 1967 – these two countries are the obvious targets.

Against Pakistan, the targets are obvious. A two-squadron attack using most of the SFC’s air assets can within minutes utterly cripple the country’s command and control centres; nuclear power plants, including the Kahuta ‘Death Star’ where the majority of the “Islamic” bombs are manufactured; the Sargodha Central Ammunition Depot west of Lahore where these warheads are stored; ballistic missile bases in Gujranwala, Okara, Multan, Jhang and Dera Nawab Shah; Pakistani Army Corp headquarters in Rawalpindi; the Karachi Port, Pakistani’s only major harbour and its Naval HQ; and ordinance factories that manufacture tanks and fighter aircraft.

The supersonic BrahMos armed with a conventional warhead can theoretically penetrate hardened command, control and communication centres. However, there is no guarantee these targets will be 100 per cent destroyed unless the BrahMos is nuclear tipped. A pre-emptive nuclear strike will therefore ensure that Pakistan’s offensive capability is effectively neutralised and it is never again a threat to India.

Against China, the Sukhoi-BrahMos one-two punch seems counter-intuitive as Chinese targets are located deep inland or on the coast. However, the Su-30MKI has a maximum range of 3000 km (extendable to 8000 km with in-flight refuelling). Now add the BrahMos’s 300 km reach and India can hit targets 3300 km inside China.

Why the Sukhoi-BrahMos option?

The Su-30MKI is an obvious choice. The SFC does not want untested fighters but the ones which can be relied upon to deliver nuclear-tipped missiles. The aircraft has a titanium airframe strong enough to fly a high-speed terrain following profile. The batch of 42 Sukhois will also have hardened electronic circuitry to shield them from the electromagnetic pulse of a nuclear blast.

Having a dedicated aircraft for the nuclear attack role offers India’s war planners strategic flexibility and increases the odds of success. Because ballistic missiles are used only as a weapon of last resort, they cannot really be deployed at will. Once released, they cannot be recalled and if shot down are not easily replaced. Fighter aircraft, on the other hand, can perform repeated sorties and be directed to bomb targets as they move. For instance, if Pakistan moves it warheads out of Sargodha depot, which is presumably under constant watch by Indian satellites, the Sukhois can be vectored against a column of Pakistani trucks transporting their nuclear cargo.

The SFC’s mini air force of 42 Sukhois can also launch their missiles against Pakistani targets from within Indian airspace or while flying over international waters, thereby complicating the enemy’s defences. It is a lot easier for India to destroy Pakistani war fighting capability because not only is Pakistan relatively smaller but it has also concentrated its defences in one province, Punjab.

Further developments

Because heavy modifications were necessary for integrating such a heavy missile onto the Su-30MKI, initially it seemed to make little sense to deploy a single missile. Aviation Week reports that initially even Sukhoi was reluctant to go along. That prompted HAL to go solo, but Aviation Week says Sukhoi came on board in 2011. The Russian side provided HAL with technical consultancy especially for the modifications to the fuselage in order to accommodate the 9-metre-long missile.

“Work is also underway on a modified lighter and smaller-diameter version of the BrahMos for deployment on the Indian navy’s MiG-29K and, potentially, the Dassault Rafale,” says Aviation Week.

And signalling the country’s immunity from western sanctions, DRDO scientists say the 300 km cap on the missile’s range will be removed. The next generation BrahMos is likely to be a longer range weapon. And with the planned increased in speed, the missile will have considerably enhanced kinetic energy despite its smaller size optimised for relatively smaller aircraft such as the MiG-29.

That’s really bad news if you are in the Sukhoi-BrahMos crosshairs.


Source : RUSSIA & INDIA REPORT

http://in.rbth.com/blogs/2015/04/20/why ... 42687.html

If you read between the lines Pakistan is quite vulnerable to strike palnes from IAF. Add the Rafale as escorts situation becomes even more simpler.

Hence US steps in with

http://tribune.com.pk/story/881919/us-h ... an-report/

United States handed over Pakistan on Wednesday 14 combat aircraft, 59 military trainer jets and 374 armoured personnel carriers which were earlier used in Afghanistan and Iran.

“As the US withdraws its forces from neighbouring Afghanistan, the major defence articles have been transferred to Pakistan under its ‘Excessive Defence Article’ category, an internal Congressional report said, according to the Economic Times.

India in the past has opposed to the transfer of such arms to Pakistan as it believes Islamabad would eventually use the fighter jets against it.



Pakistan has either made full payment or will make payments from its national funds towards the purchase of 18 new F-16C/D Block 52 Fighting FalconBSE -4.69 % combat aircraft worth $1.43 billion, according to the internal report prepared by Congressional Research Service (CRS), an independent research wing of the Congress.

This includes F-16 armaments including 500 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, 1,450 2,000-pound bombs, 500 JDAM Tail Kits for gravity bombs and 1,600 Enhanced Paveway laser-guided kits. These have cost Pakistan $629 million.



Pakistan has also paid $298 million for 100 harpoon anti-ship missiles, 500 sidewinder air-to-air missiles ($ 95 million) and seven Phalanx Close-In Weapons System naval guns ($80 million).

Pakistan received 26 Bell 412EP utility helicopters along with related parts and maintenance, val valued at $235 million under the Coalition Support.



Pakistan is also receiving military equipment with a mix of its national funds and America’s foreign military funding.

These include 60 Mid-Life Update kits for F-16A/B combat aircraft.

Pakistan has purchased 45 such kits, with all upgrades completed to date. This include 115 M-109 self-propelled howitzers.


Under Frontier Corps and Pakistan Counterinsurgency Fund authorities, US has provided four Mi-17 multirole helicopters (another six were provided temporarily at no cost), four King Air 350 surveillance aircraft, and 450 vehicles.

None of this will save Pak when balloon goes up.

[Gagan]

Pakistan plans only for massa to save their backside once they start getting bashed up.

The weapons they buy is only for showbazi, they will try a half assed attempt to prevent the Indian armed forces.

Once massa saves their sorry backsides / India has mercy on them and doesn't crush them completely, they can claim victory later.
I think the Indian armed forces plan for massive punishment to them in the interval between open hostilities begin and massa/UN starts to step in and asks India to not punish them too much.

[Amber G.]

xpost:
Todays tweet:
Narendra Modi @narendramodi · 21h 21 hours ago
We salute efforts of our scientists & political leadership behind the success of Pokhran Tests on this day in 1998.


Also:

APJ Abdul Kalam @APJAbdulKalam · May 10
Today,I remember the hot day of 1998 at Pokhran: 53C.
When most of the world was sleeping; India's nuclear era emerged.

[RoyG]

China's Shenguang 3 Super Laser

China is constructing SG-III(48 beams,3ns,3ω,200kJ) super laser facility, which to be in operation in 2012. And the new Ignition facility (3ns,3ω,1.4MJ) will be finished in 2020.

The SG-III laser facility, which is one of the most important parts of the China ICF Program, is now under construction in the Research Center of Laser Fusion (LFRC) of China Academy of Engineering Physics (CAEP). The engineering design of the facility has already been completed and the
construction of building housing the laser system will be completed in late 2007. SG-III will be used to investigate target physics before ignition for both direct-driven and indirect-driven ICF and will be operating in 2012. The facility is designed to provide up 48 energetic laser beams (six bundles) and laser energy output of 150-200kJ (3ω) for square pulse of 3ns. If fast ignition is workable, SG-III will couple with a PW laser of tens KJ to demonstrate fast ignition.

The SG-III laser facility is shown schematically in Figure 1. The entire laser system and target area are housed in an environmentally controlled building. The building is mainly divided into three parts, which are main experimental area, target area and optics assembly area. The main experimental area, approximately 24 meters wide and 121 meters long, is the core area where the main control room, front-end system, preamplifier, main amplifier and capacitor reside. The optics assembly building is located at one side of building for assembling and installing the precision optical and opto-mechanical components that make up the SG-III laser system. All areas are one level except for the target area,
which have five floors and in the central core where elevated floors provide space for facility utility equipment.

SG-III’s laser system, the heart of the facility, is comprised of 48 high-power laser beams. For inertial fusion studies, these laser beams will produce 180,000 joules (approximately 60 trillion watts of power for 3 nanoseconds) of laser energy in the near-ultraviolet (351-nanometer wavelength). It consists of a number of subsystems including front-end, preamplifier, main amplifier, target diagnostic unit, beam control and diagnostic unit, and the integrated computer control system.

The front-end system mainly consists of four parts: 100-ps standard pulse unit, pulse shaping unit, fiber transport/amplify unit and power amplifier unit.

http://www.chinatechgadget.com/chinas-s ... laser.html

Came across this dated gem. I say again, where are we? Pathetic state of affairs. Shenguang 4 is in the same class as NIF and Laser Megajoule. No doubt that this will be used primarily for stockpile stewardship. This coupled with 47 nuclear tests, will ensure that their stockpile will continue to have deterrence value well into the future. This will be especially important if the P5 make a significant push to make FMCT a reality.

[shiv]

I say again, where are we? Pathetic state of affairs. Shenguang 4 is in the same class as NIF and Laser Megajoule. No doubt that this will be used primarily for stockpile stewardship. This coupled with 47 nuclear tests, will ensure that their stockpile will continue to have deterrence value well into the future. This will be especially important if the P5 make a significant push to make FMCT a reality.

Perhaps I can express your thoughts in fewer words?

[ramana]

RoyG, yes there will be push for FMCT cut-off. Its inevitable.
All that laser stuff is to go beyond testing i.e. CTBT regime.

When the time comes India won't be found lacking.

[RoyG]

RoyG, yes there will be push for FMCT cut-off. Its inevitable.
All that laser stuff is to go beyond testing i.e. CTBT regime.

When the time comes India won't be found lacking.

I think we are getting closer to a general framework but I feel implementation is still about 10-15 years away.

R&D has to start now so we can be ready when the time comes to sign on the dotted line.

Of course by then one hopes that we will have validated our TN capability.

[shiv]

FMCT will not happen, but I doubt if I will be around to witness its not happening. It is only because India shows good boy behaviour that we actually take things like someone else putting FMCT restrictions on us seriously. Pakistan and NoKo and if it comes to that, Iran are hardly going to bother.

Treaties like FMCT are like Westphalian Nation states and the monotheistic religions. They seek to impose top-down order and they establish and maintain hierarchies that nations must accept with bowed head.

In the long term the only way out of the danger of nuclear war is to have nuclear weapons but no one should use them in the interest of humanity. That means that the nations that seek to dominate should be as badly damaged by someone else fighting nuclear war as they would if they were directly involved.

[NRao]

Two things stand out in Vice Admiral retd Vijay Shankar Talk

1 ) India would opt for full scale nuclear retaliation if Pakistan tries to used nuke on smaller scale on the battle field i.e tactical nukes
2 ) If Pakistan Nukes India then India wont nuke China , it would be Indo-Pak affair

Not sure why either "stand out".

IF that is the message he gave and was it was understood for the first time (by THAT crowd), then the Indian policy has failed.

What did come out is:

A) That India does have small nukes (some think of this in terms of sub-KT, etc),
That "big" nukes are not necessary, and
C) That India does have "deterrence". That either China or Pakistan can do anything they please, but India is more than capable of dealing with the management aspect of nukes (being a responsible citizen) (that it is a very well thought out process - unlike TSP - which got the nukes from China and the management from the US) AND being able to deter.

IF one recalls, these were the point of contention/discussion long back - that the tests had failed, etc.




Since I have not tracked anything for the past decade or so, I am not sure if anyone else has confirmed this prior to this talk.



I wish he was as clear on the US involvement.

[NRao]

BTW.


Has anyone woken to this topic?

Saudi Arabia says will 'match' Iranian nuclear capability

Due to Saudi financial involvement in the Pakistani nuclear program, it is presumed that Pakistan will provide Saudi Arabia with nuclear technologies, if not an actual weapon itself.

A new knot in the chaddi?


What I really admire is the SA clarity on the path they intend to take.

[ramana]

Paki nukes are Chinese nukes.

As for Paki nuke technology look at what they sold Iran!!!

[ShauryaT]

May 18, 1974 - is 41 years for POK I. Pissing on the so called NWS has its own sweetness. Every PM of India should do at least one such pissing act to redeem themselves in the annals of history.

[vishvak]

It is not about what brand of suit that PM is wearing and its implications, it is about what Indian PM should do. Well said, Shaurya ji.

[wig]

Saudi Arabia 'could buy Pakistani nuclear weapon'-Decision to purchase 'off the shelf' nuclear device has already been made, newspaper quotes US defence official as saying.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 57964.html

Saudi Arabia intends to buy an "off the shelf" nuclear weapon from Pakistan, according to US officials quoted in The Sunday Times.
The report comes amid ongoing negotiations between Iran and other world powers over its nuclear programme, and a potential thawing of relations between the US and Iran.
Saudi Arabia is wary of a potential deal on Iran's nuclear programme and Prince Turki bin Faisal, the former Saudi intelligence chief, has warned that it could pave the way for nuclear proliferation in the region.
The Sunday Times report suggests that Saudi Arabia has already taken the decision to acquire a nuclear device from its ally Pakistan.
The report quotes an anonymous US defence official as saying: “There has been a longstanding agreement in place with the Pakistanis [over nuclear weapons] and the House of Saud has now made the strategic decision to move forward.”
Saudi Arabia is believed to have helped fund Pakistan's nuclear programme, which began back in the 1970s. Pakistan tested its first nuclear device in 1998.
Pakistani officials deny allowing Saudi Arabia access to the country's nuclear technology.

[ramana]

This news from US official is interesting.
Its more like pressure on Iran to sign the treaty to preclude KSA acquiring nukes.

Now if KSA wants to buy nukes what is US the principal country behind NPT doing or saying!!!
Shouldn't they be outraged? No just wring their hands as they did when Pak got Chinese nukes with US support.

I say this because the Chinese specifically transferred the CHIC-4 design which has US components!
The last bit because TSP gets repeatedly caught smuggling US parts for a Chinese bomb!!!!

[shiv]

I have made friends on DFI and was asked for suggestions on "how to improve" DFI. But heck - I actually find a lot of interesting stuff and people there - and today while lazily browsing I found discussions of the sort we have not had here for 6-7 years and stuff that in fact was not posted here. I don;t know who this person is and have no idea whether what he writes is true or not, but what caught my attention was this post - I will not quote the whole post but just the bit that tickled my interest. He is basically making a counter argument against a person who seems to be a Chinese
http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/thre ... st-1035099

However this is based on the presumption that the tellar ulam is the ultimate weapon. Such a presumption can only be made by the kind of people who do not design weapons aka politicians.

Off course that presumption was wrong and the real weapon designers and real operators knew that, what the politicians are doing will only give them some respite from competition. It could not have given an insurance. There is no insurance for such things.

A tellar ulam requires two things that made the whole scheme a very theoretical weapon. Lithium and implosion lense.

The implosion lens was a resolvable problem - change the method of implosion which after all was about shaping a charge. Get a fast camera, a shock wave traveling tube and good brain power and ho gaya ji.

The real problem was the lithium, as much a problem as a solution. Lithium is a not a dense metal. So much so that while a 1 pound of URANIUM (almost same as PLUTONIUM) will make a ball only 1.3 inches in diameter while a 1 pound of LITHIUM will make a ball 8.24 inches in diameter. And that big volume went right inside the explosive part of the whole assembly, not on the outside. So that forces the whole weapon to balloons in size to produce a nearly unusable article. It will be clean but it will be Beeeeg. This limit is imposed by mother nature herself.

The best most efficient most clean tellar ulam design will give a big clean explosion but will also demand a compression of some 8 times the comparative volume, of some very light lithium also to get about 3 to 6 times (old vs new gen TN) the yield per unit fissle material. 1 kg of U gives ~8 kt at a realistic 50% tritium boosted burn and 1 kg lithium will give 50kt at realistic later generation 100% burn or 25 kt at a realistic earlier gen TN 50% burn. You do the Math for volume and mass.

The weapons designers understood that a pure tellar ulam fusion would be weight efficient but volume in-efficient. A fission OTOH would be exactly the reverse - weight in-efficient but volume efficient, per unit of fissle mass. To resolve this weakness of tellar ulam simpliciter, the weapons designers knew they will again have to produce staged hybrids of fission-fusion-fission and the earlier salivation for staged fission-fusion-fusion was a pipe dream unless you want to make a dooms-day machine.

[ramana]

Accurate summary from what I know.

[RoyG]

In the concluding part of Walk the Talk with Anil Kakodkar, one of India's premier nuclear scientists, he talks about his experience as the youngest ever Chairman of Bhabha Atomic Research Centre and tackling bureaucrats and ministers from various ministries. He describes how Indian nuclear scientists have evaded being penetrated by intelligence agencies like the CIA, and about all the facades they had to create to distract the CIA. He justifies the decision to execute Pokhran 2 in 1998 and how India has tackled the pressure to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. He also says that the fission technology since the 1974 Pokhran tests has developed by leaps and bounds which has negated the need for a fusion device. (Watch Part 1)

Boom! There ya go. The evidence is slowly trickling out.

http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/walk-t ... dget_cat_5

[NRao]

Walk The Talk With Anil Kakodkar (Part 1)

Walk the Talk with Anil Kakodkar (Part 2)

[ramdas]

RoyG,

Looks like NDTV has put words into Dr. Kakodkar's mouth. He said that the 1998 tests had to take place because, among other reasons, even fission systems had evolved a lot since 1974…he NEVER said that thermonuclear designs were unnecessary… in fact, that was cited as one of the main reasons for the 1998 tests….

[RoyG]

RoyG,

Looks like NDTV has put words into Dr. Kakodkar's mouth. He said that the 1998 tests had to take place because, among other reasons, even fission systems had evolved a lot since 1974…he NEVER said that thermonuclear designs were unnecessary… in fact, that was cited as one of the main reasons for the 1998 tests….

You're right. Didn't have time to watch the whole thing when I posted.

[shiv]

RoyG,

Looks like NDTV has put words into Dr. Kakodkar's mouth. He said that the 1998 tests had to take place because, among other reasons, even fission systems had evolved a lot since 1974…he NEVER said that thermonuclear designs were unnecessary… in fact, that was cited as one of the main reasons for the 1998 tests….

Shekhar Gupta keeps interrupting and prompting but Kakodkar is precise.

There was an interesting titbit at around 16 min 10 sec (+/- 20 sec) where Kakodkar refers to the cancelled tests of 95 (or 96?). He says "There was some activity" and then looks skywards and says that "a signature was detected". I just wonder if that was a radioactive signature or a photographic signature.

[shiv]

http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/thre ... st-1035099

The real problem was the lithium, as much a problem as a solution. Lithium is a not a dense metal. So much so that while a 1 pound of URANIUM (almost same as PLUTONIUM) will make a ball only 1.3 inches in diameter while a 1 pound of LITHIUM will make a ball 8.24 inches in diameter. And that big volume went right inside the explosive part of the whole assembly, not on the outside. So that forces the whole weapon to balloons in size to produce a nearly unusable article. It will be clean but it will be Beeeeg. This limit is imposed by mother nature herself.

I found this to be an interesting statement. The facts seem correct - Lithium is high up on the Periodic table and is a light metal with a specific gravity of about half that of water - i.e. it floats on water (it explodes on contact with water but that is a different issue)

Plutonium is 40 times as dense so a marble of Pu will weigh as much as a football of Lithium (not exactly - but as an illustration)

So in a Teller Ulam device a small "primary" - say 5 kg Plutonium has to explode - but the explosion has to be "contained" in a lens for a few microseconds while the radiation from the "contained" nuclear explosion of 8-12 kt compresses a football sized 1 kg of Lithium. In order to contain the Li and the Pu in one unit - you need and even bigger outer shell.

That brings us to the second half of the post from DFI that I quoted above

The best most efficient most clean tellar ulam design will give a big clean explosion but will also demand a compression of some 8 times the comparative volume, of some very light lithium also to get about 3 to 6 times (old vs new gen TN) the yield per unit fissle material. 1 kg of U gives ~8 kt at a realistic 50% tritium boosted burn and 1 kg lithium will give 50kt at realistic later generation 100% burn or 25 kt at a realistic earlier gen TN 50% burn. You do the Math for volume and mass.

The weapons designers understood that a pure tellar ulam fusion would be weight efficient but volume in-efficient. A fission OTOH would be exactly the reverse - weight in-efficient but volume efficient, per unit of fissle mass. To resolve this weakness of tellar ulam simpliciter, the weapons designers knew they will again have to produce staged hybrids of fission-fusion-fission and the earlier salivation for staged fission-fusion-fusion was a pipe dream unless you want to make a dooms-day machine.

If the "containment" of the fission explosion does not last for long enough the Lithium may not all be used up. It will give some yield but less than if all the Li got compressed enough to undergo 100% utilization for fusion.

If I recall from earlier discussions the "containment" of the Lithium can be done with a Uranium cover/shield/box.

That meant that the 5 kg Pu fission trigger would explode first and compress the Lithium. The Lithium would undergo fusion and cause a secondary thermonuclear explosion. That thermonuclear explosion in turn would rip into the Uranium cover/box which itself would then undergo fission as the tertiary, and produce even more yield. This is the three stage "fission-fusion-fission" bomb. The advantage: "Huge megaton bomb". Disadvantage: bulky because of bulky Lithium and shielding around it. Lots and lots of Uranium needed.

Of course the "doomsday" weapon dream was to have the primary fission trigger followed by a secondary fusion as above to trigger a tertiary fusion bomb."fission-fusion-fusion". No such bomb exists as far as I know.

So we get back to the same old issues. The smallest and most compact "big" bombs are the "boosted fission" ones. Bigger size and with a bigger bang would be a two stage - Fission-Fusion Thermonuclear device. This was probably what was tested at Pokhran. Even bigger bangs and a more bulky bomb would be the three stage fission-fusion-fission - which is the same as 2-stage sitting in a Uranium box.

For theater/tactical nuclear weapons there is no fusion. Only a wastefully big ball of Uranium or Plutonium - most of which gets spread into the environment along with a small 1 kiloton blast. That allows the bomb to be compact enough for Hatf - if the morons have really done it.

[RoyG]

RoyG,

Looks like NDTV has put words into Dr. Kakodkar's mouth. He said that the 1998 tests had to take place because, among other reasons, even fission systems had evolved a lot since 1974…he NEVER said that thermonuclear designs were unnecessary… in fact, that was cited as one of the main reasons for the 1998 tests….

Shekhar Gupta keeps interrupting and prompting but Kakodkar is precise.

There was an interesting titbit at around 16 min 10 sec (+/- 20 sec) where Kakodkar refers to the cancelled tests of 95 (or 96?). He says "There was some activity" and then looks skywards and says that "a signature was detected". I just wonder if that was a radioactive signature or a photographic signature.

Good catch. I noticed that too. The satellites must have picked up the activity. If the Yanks knew what we were up to, how did we manage to fool them in 98? The intention was quite evident. Surely, they would have doubled their eyes on us.

I scanned some of your old work not too long ago. Good stuff. Brought back memories of how heated things got during the Santhanam episode. Whatever happened to Mav, Alok, and the others?

[shiv]

Actually PK Iyengar's criticism of R Chidambaram now falls into place. A two-stage thermonuclear device was tested - which means there was a fission primary and a fusion secondary. The fusion secondary had Lithium. Iyengar said that the presence of Lithium after the test meant "partial burn". These criticisms caused a huge upheaval on BRF and we had people beating their breasts and crying that there is no TN device. That is actually wrong. A TN device was tested. It did work - at least partially, giving a yield far in excess of the basic primary. The moot point was that the Lithium did not "burn" (fuse) 100%. Not that it did not burn at all. The reasons for that could be many ranging from deliberate design, to partial failure of containment (ie the fission primary explosion was "contained" only for 0.1 seconds rather than 0.15 seconds. The other point that has been mentioned in passing by BRFites and others is that the same weapon, if encased in Uranium could increase the yield by huge amounts. The main arguments here are not capability, but efficiency.