Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 27 Apr 2011 11:22

devesh wrote:the first guy always sets the precedent. George Washington in US is an example. stopped after second term.

Unfortunately for India JLN despite all his global anti-feudal pretensions was at heart extremely feudal in his personal dealings - he was known to physically thrash his servants with his hands if annoyed by their 'incompetence'. Classic feudal behavior of the Delhi / UP elites of the time to suck-up to the ruling whites while not comprehending the backwardness of their own feudal behavior ! JLN ruled for 17 long years - and despite his extensive reading of constitutional precedence in the US and the West, made no move to adopt George Washington's policy of restricting his own terms..... His infliction of his family on India over not one or two, but 4 generations - has been the single biggest tragedy to have befallen the country since independence.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Apr 2011 18:38

Guys,

I have had a change of mind, and now think the "Peaceful Consolidation of the Indian Subcontinent" aka India-Bangladesh merger is not feasible nor desired in order to safeguard our strategic interests!

An alliance of convenience between India and Bangladesh would not suffice for the tectonic shift I had in mind!

India would need to find other ways of consolidating our hold on our Northeast, possibly through Myanmar! In fact, I would not even be in favor of transit rights through Bangladesh, because even that can be used against India at critical moments in time! Bangladesh is coming again under a different political dispensation - BNP & Islamists. We should explore possibilities through Myanmar!

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 27 Apr 2011 18:46

RajeshA-ji,
Good you are not sitting in NSCS drafting India's grand strategies

Separately,

RajeshA wrote:Bangladesh is coming again under a different political dispensation - BNP & Islamists

How do you arrive at this conclusion?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 27 Apr 2011 18:47

somnath wrote: RamaY-ji, on the contrary JLN could be justifiably accused of trying to pitch a position for India that was far above our capabilities for the time...He sought to substitute our glaring deficiencies in hard power quotient (economic, military) with history, moralism and sheer force of his personality...Not always for the better, has to be said...

JLN is like moi. I couldn't run a business (personally lost $'00sK) successfully but wanted to create alternative budget scenarios

A person's legacy must be judged on what is created on the ground; not what is left in his *****s.

If you know of any of JLN's great contributions kindly post them in JLN thread. By the way consolidation of princely states is Sri Patel's doing; please don't blame JLN for that. Refugees - yes. We are know how well it went on the eastern front.

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 27 Apr 2011 18:55

RamaY wrote:A person's legacy must be judged on what is created on the ground; not what is left in his *****s

Not sure what you meant by the ****, but JLN's legacy is at worst mixed, its certainly not an unmitigated disaster that people sometimes seem to think..

First of all, it was JLN's steadfast adherence to constitutional republicanism that ensured India did not go the way of so many Asian countries in the '50s, and remained a democracy...His staunch belief in Parliamentary democracy - he insisted on attending Parliament almost every single day it was in session, so much different from PMs of late - set the traditions of Parliamentary process...

Second, it was primarily his drive that set up the first IITs, the first IIMs, and the nascent heavy industry...All of which stood India in great stead in years to come...

There's a lot more, but perhaps not appropriate for this thread...Maybe JLN lived too long, he should have retired in 1960

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 27 Apr 2011 18:57

RajeshA miya.. if Ralph Peter's map materializes, oil will come under control of Shias and funding to Sunni RoPers in subcontinent wil ldry up considerably (won't vanish totally). This will create a window of opportunity as most of the BNP like nutcases all over subcontnent will sit with their mijjile in their hand vigorously paalishing and maalishing it while dreaming of lost chance of caliphate. this will relieve India in short and mid term (15 years or so). Until then, India has to find an alternative energy source which will ease her pressure on ME oil forever. Biomass, biogas, Biofuels, wind, tidal, solar, hydro, nuke, (may be fusion, quite possible by 2040-2050, who knows) everything and anything, needs to be networked and utilized as efficiently as possible. the dharmik assilimation of deracinated non-indic population will start 12-15 years after india's total energy independence.. this will lead to permanent fixing of ROP, BD and other problems. Until and unless ME goes back in tent to live, it will always remain incomplete. Unless something akin to panipat 1761 and madhavrao 1772 happens again which gives west a foothold on indan subcontinent, i think things look good for India. As I said earlier, I love your picture of end game. need better bats and some time on crease to play Mcgrath confidently.. we have 2 days to win a test and only way of defeating us is bowling us all out. if we sustain, we win..

if ralph peters map materializes..

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 27 Apr 2011 19:07

Last post on JLN.

We all know JLN's belief in democracy and staunch belief in Parliamentary Democracy based on his interactions with other INC leaders and Babu Rajendra Prasad etc.,

Democracy is not JLN's idea as if all other national leaders are against it. He is not an AtaTurk amidst Islamic fundamentalists. He is a leader (probably more acceptable to British than others) nevertheless who wanted to emulate western style of progress in India using socialism, so the overall control is in the leadership's hand.

His drive to setup educational, research and heavy industries is not unique to him. Every govt in the world does it; successfully or not. IIT/IIM's success is in their constitution (of those institutes) and quality inputs, beside the quality education. One should appreciate the vision of the people who formed the governance structure of IITs/IIMs.

I wish he retired in 1946 along with MKG.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 27 Apr 2011 19:13

Second, it was primarily his drive that set up the first IITs, the first IIMs, and the nascent heavy industry...All of which stood India in great stead in years to come...

This was discussed in JL Nehru thread. Real people are either ignored or sidelined and just as every road, stadium etc has to be named after Gandhi Nehru, credit for this goes to a Nehru.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... &start=240

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Apr 2011 21:31

somnath wrote:RajeshA-ji,
Good you are not sitting in NSCS drafting India's grand strategies

Well at least someone is happy about my choice of career!

somnath ji,
when "data" changes, preferences change too!

There are winds of change in the Gulf! Atri garu mentioned it a few posts earlier. I wrote about it in Managing Pakistan's failure Thread!

But then again may be you are right. There is no constituency in Bangladesh willing to partner India in a political union of the Subcontinent! So no matter how many grand strategies I may design, you need two hands to clap! With one hand it is all "Jutt ke Putt"!

somnath wrote:Separately,
RajeshA wrote:Bangladesh is coming again under a different political dispensation - BNP & Islamists
How do you arrive at this conclusion?

Oh that is just the future I pulled out of my musharraf!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Apr 2011 21:36

RajeshA, It might not be for there. Usually the mind has most of the facts swirling around and if one lets the right brain loose, the most likely event summary will blurt out. This is the theory in Malcolm Gladwell's book "Blink!"

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 27 Apr 2011 23:49

I am real sad Rajesh A ji,
you didn't give me a chance to fight it out!

Are you not convinced by the increasing signs of cultural overlap, linguistic overlap, celebration overlap - and the high level of Indicness in the language, as well as a solid political constituency within the current regime that looks favourably on India, and waning Islamism anyway - that in the future "merger" is feasible?

Why should waning "Islamism" become "strong" again? Why would the correct eocnomic "initiatives" followed by GOI and the matching political constituency in BD suddenly "vanish" and leave not even a favourable after ash?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Apr 2011 00:48

brihaspati garu,

I had today a little shocking revelation.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 28 Apr 2011 01:25

RajeshA ji...

That is expected for a while; but was downplayed by [sic] secular media/govt. We have very few so-called minority dominated states JK, some of NE states etc with Kerala following very closely. We also know what kind of internal security issues these states are causing.

Unless I see a minority dominated state act in Indic interests, I am not convinced of using Indian minorities as a strategic tool.

I am called paranoid in west-asia thread, I would rather be paranoid in future strategic scenario for India.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 28 Apr 2011 01:27

RajeshA wrote:brihaspati garu,

I had today a little shocking revelation.

One hint again from history, rajesh ji..

i recommend you the movie "agora".. the way christians were then, muslims are now.. they burnt the library of alexandria, killed thousands of free thinkers, philosophers and women for heresy and blasphemy. they reproduced vigorously. when roman empire was falling, what was reaction of India and china? peaceful ignorance.

Fall of west (free and secular roman system, however cruel it was) affected the trade from India to go down. people started investing in domestic construction projects to save their wealth instead of colonizing and investing in businesses. i sometimes wonder, did India "allow" the west to fall? could India interfere? apart from providing shelter to fleeing people, what else did indian kings do then? almost close to zilch.

early christian system was more "rewarding" towards basic drives of human being (rather human male) vis-a-vis Aahar (feeding)-Nidra (sleep/inaction/non-productiivity)-Bhay (fear of sky daddy which again is excuse for taking shortcuts)-Maithuna (sex, most important).. Islam is following the pattern. Why was romans hated so much in ME? partially due to their violent occupation of ME along with their visible over indulgence in joys of life, when many "slave" societies were suffering. But with all their drawbacks, Romans were liberal ideologically.

EU is survivor. the power centres and their tendencies in west will survive after constantine like compromise. this will ensure temporary return of dark age and simultaneous rise in vsiible display of India's wealth. but that will be stagnant wealth and not freeflowing one. This is what happened in post Gupta india when West fell to abraham 2.0.. abraham 1.0 was genocidal initially and equally regressive but allowed multiple ideas and interpretations. that freedom was reduced in abraham 2.0.. abraham 3.0 (islam) exceeded its first 2 versions and is getting exceedingly efficient at standardization.

the only difference this time is abraham 3.0 has significant presence in greater India. hence increasing importance is being given towards rise of dharma. Krishna says, dharma is very complex and minute. A truly dhdarmik mind understands the relation between karma-its motivatioin- the larger dharma- an its effect on self, society, nation, civilization, humanty. There is a reason why parashurama is respected and but ravana isn't. But while parashurama is respected, jarasandha is not although essentially the "action (Kriya)" they were indulging in was similar.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 28 Apr 2011 01:45

Atri wrote:
RajeshA wrote:brihaspati garu,

I early christian system was more "rewarding" towards basic drives of human being (rather human male) vis-a-vis Aahar (feeding)-Nidra (sleep/inaction/non-productiivity)-Bhay (fear of sky daddy which again is excuse for taking shortcuts)-Maithuna (sex, most important).. Islam is following the pattern.

In Delhi streets , they call rhis L&B(Lull and Bull) culture =L4 copulating and B4eating are 2major features. But sir please dont forget one difference, this time kuufar India is united and keeping huge standing army . There are many other combined "factors" which were not available in past. Mentioning them might send PSers to ICU.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 28 Apr 2011 02:39

Prem wrote:
Atri wrote: I early christian system was more "rewarding" towards basic drives of human being (rather human male) vis-a-vis Aahar (feeding)-Nidra (sleep/inaction/non-productiivity)-Bhay (fear of sky daddy which again is excuse for taking shortcuts)-Maithuna (sex, most important).. Islam is following the pattern.
In Delhi streets , they call rhis L&B(Lull and Bull) culture =L4 copulating and B4eating are 2major features. But sir please dont forget one difference, this time kuufar India is united and keeping huge standing army . There are many other combined "factors" which were not available in past. Mentioning them might send PSers to ICU.

We are in fact weaker, Prem ji.. the kings contemporary to Constantine and subsequent burning of alexandria (from 280 to 400) in India were chandragupta-1, Samudragupta and chandragupta-2 "vikramaditya"... India was a defacto superpower in terms of science, economy and military.. it was greater india which was politically united and increasing (vikrama conquering CAR and persia).. India had a standing army which was equally professional, well equipped and well fed. In fact better than current IA.. When library of alexandria was burning and west was falling into dark age, (391 AD), Vikramaditya and hence united greater India was at peak of youth, sovereignty and valour.. this status of society remained so until 600s (pulikeshi-harsha battle) an stagnated and slowly and steadily declined thereafter till ghori and tughlaq struck the decisive blow..

Indian armies were freely roaming in ME then.. here is one of the interesting preislamic arabic reference of vikramaditya

"Itrashaphai Santu Ibikramatul Phahalameen Karimun Yartapheeha Wayosassaru Bihillahaya Samaini Ela Motakabberen Sihillaha Yuhee Quid min howa Yapakhara phajjal asari nahone osirom bayjayhalem. Yundan blabin Kajan blnaya khtoryaha sadunya kanateph netephi bejehalin Atadari bilamasa- rateen phakef tasabuhu kaunnieja majekaralhada walador. As hmiman burukankad toluho watastaru hihila Yakajibaymana balay kulk amarena phaneya jaunabilamary Bikramatum".
(Page 315 Sayar-ul-okul).

"Fortunate are those who were born (and lived) during king Vikrama's reign. He was a noble, generous dutiful ruler, devoted to the welfare of his subjects. But at that time we Arabs, oblivious of God, were lost in sensual pleasures. Plotting and torture were rampant. The darkness of ignorance had enveloped our country. Like the lamb struggling for her life in the cruel paws of a wolf we Arabs were caught up in ignorance. The entire country was enveloped in a darkness so intense as on a new moon night. But the present dawn and pleasant sunshine of education is the result of the favour of the noble king Vikramaditya whose benevolent supervision did not lose sight of us- foreigners as we were. He spread his sacred religion amongst us and sent scholars whose brilliance shone like that of the sun from his country to ours. These scholars and preceptors through whose benevolence we were once again made cognisant of the presence of God, introduced to His sacred existence and put on the road of Truth, had come to our country to preach their religion and impart education at king Vikramaditya's behest."

This text of the crucial Vikramaditya inscription, found inscribed on a gold dish hung inside the Kaaba shrine in Mecca, is found recorded on page 315 of a volume known as Sayar-ul-Okula treasured in the Makhtab-e-Sultania library in Istanbul, Turkey..

Legends of India have elevated vikrama to a status almost that of god, this is for reason.. but when this Vishnu on earth was so ably ruling India and adjoining region, it is illogical to assume that he had no power or no knowledge of things happening in Roman territories.. Was nothing done to stop it? Or was this happening at the behest of OR at the "wink-wink" of Vikrama and his father Samudragupta?

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 28 Apr 2011 02:48

RajeshA ji,
when formulating your subcontinental "union" framework, didn't you have this demographic trend in mind? It has been talked about (yes and suppressed as much as feasible) for at least 10 years. There was a study about comparative social indicators - that showed in each level - education, economic status, etc., there was a statistically significant higher FR for one community compared to all others. Thus even higher education or higher income for women did not equalize the FR. I will try to fish it out and send it to you.

Population growth in itself is not a problem [well it is - but I do not mean in conventional infrastructural sense], but the persistence of an-exclusive and destructive-of-all-others ideology and its institutions. It is the institutional framework that maintains the memes and the affiliations. No GOI has targeted this out of a complete failure to understand the real political mobilizational processes inherent in that faith [well as well as perhaps a deep seated fear and hatred] and especially in its ulema. This has been the fundamental error.

In the medieval period - none of the ancestors of distinct cultures which have survived till today with their individual richness and heritage/knowledge - actually allowed Islam and its institutions to survive within their heartlands. Russia pushed out Turkey and the CAR Islam dominated regions - especially the mullahs. Europe did so - and it is the frontier between European heartland and Islamics that still now continue to be unstable and sources of trouble in East Europe. The Franks and Spanish goths cleaned out the Islamics from Iberia.

What they primarily targeted - were the institutions of Islamism, its schools, its training academies, and its ulema and various orders of theologians. They did not target the biz-people, or "scholars" - but specifically the theologians.

The task is to destroy the legitimacy of the theologians of Islamism, as well as its institutions. The technique is to be learnt from the way Centre-Left/DDM has applied on the "hindu" institutions. Delegitimize the "heads", discredit them and reveal them for what they are and what they really aim for, their connections with foreign imperialist interests, the funds that flow into them, as well as every dirty linen extractable from their educational/training institutions. Just think of doing a "Kanchi" on a luminary from Deoband or Nadiad. At least until the rashtra reflects the real strategic interests of Indians [and not some delusional imperialist propaganda] this is a way.

AKalam · Post by **AKalam** » 28 Apr 2011 02:59

devesh ji, thanks for stating it bluntly. It is quite clear that the elephant does not want us back as family and there is similar mutual feeling among BD majority as well, that was the point of my post. What options are we left with then, but to search for deers and rabbits thousands of miles away, who at least calls us family. We may not share sovereignty with anyone like we did with Pakjabi’s, but closer cooperation with other Muslim power centers is something that is bound to happen, with overt indifference and covert hostility reserved for Pakjabi’s. If Islam is like Leprosy, then we need a Leper colony to help each other.

As an ethnic group, the Pakjabi have proven their perfidy in subcontinental and world stage for quite some time (from 1857 till now and continuing), so it is our duty to make sure that the greater Ummah is wary about this virus at the leadership helm of an evolving group of Muslim nations under OIC, by making aware all and sundry exactly what the Pakjabi have done in the name of Islam.

I tried to sum up the general view of average middle class Bangladeshi's who have had the opportunity to see the world a bit and meet and get to know different Muslim ethnic groups. My personal view is probably not relevant, which could be as remote from the average and majority Bangladeshi POV as the POV of a positronic robot called Daneel Olivaw, who got to live for 50 thousand years and suddenly came to planet earth in 2011 on an anti-gravity run space ship called Far Star, and find the earth in the state it is in

.

As for discussions on inclusion of CHT in Bangladesh, yes there was a window of opportunity after 1971, when a Chakma insurgency started, but President Zia closed that window by allowing Bengali’s to settle in that area en mass. The challenge today is to integrate around 500,000 tribal’s in our political and economic life and that effort is going relatively well I believe, because of the large labor intensive export industries in Chittagong city, specially in the Export Processing Zone near the port, where I had the opportunity to work and know quite a few of these tribal people in the past.

And I salute RajeshA ji for having an open mind and the courage to consider an alternate reality as a possible future option. It was a good thought experiment and exercise and I believe it clarified many issues on both sides, which is valuable IMHO. If anything, it shows clearly that the endeavors under current SAARC or under an apparently India friendly AL govt. will be of temporary nature at best.

Somnath ji’s mention of naval use of Chittagong port by India is interesting, the day Hasina led AL tries to push that line, that will be the day the next election results will be decided against their favor. AL is a party that is probably similar and a mirror image of INC in many respects, as it uses vote bank politics within BD. As the internal situation and external road map for BD changes, with the winds of change in world geopolitical scenario, they will have to adjust to new realities, if they cannot they will be side lined over time.

The virulent meme called Islam, will be in its most dangerous and powerful form, when its adherents will be able to internalize advanced secular humanism meme’s such as plurality, enlightenment, democracy, welfare state etc. as is happening now in fits and starts in MENA. It is only then it will flourish in full bloom and be able to maximize Muslim power, before its eventual fading away and irrelevance. I think this Arab spring opens that door for the Muslims to go out and make it happen, but they could also fail. The future is always as unpredictable as ever.

The Shia Sunni is an internal division and fight that will have some effect, but in an increasingly smaller global village and in a sea of Sunni majority, the Shia will compromise IMHO. The difference will be something all Muslims will work on to reconcile and manage and not let it get out of hand. When most Muslims are becoming less and less religious every day, such differences will hardly matter, except for hard line extremists, an increasingly vanishing species in the future. Being an extremist is hard work, it takes effort to memorize the Quran and Hadith and it takes a huge effort to pray 5 times a day, keep 30 days of fast in Ramadan and so on. Sharia is just too hard to follow.

When oil runs out, it will probably help to further unify the Muslim world, not less. The resource curse of oil wealth had strange effect and path of social evolution of MENA region, as is becoming evident now. In the meantime, the challenge will be to utilize and channelize as much of the remaining oil wealth as possible to democratize and then unify this democratized part of the Muslim world. PRC will probably be an odd partner in this effort, but it seems like a willing partner, who knows may be this alliance will motivate them to democratize as well at a pace and time of their own choosing.

I think Hindu civilization will have nothing to fear from such future outcomes and scenario, because it will most probably always have an upper hand, being a large state and being able to take advantage of the fruits of being a large and mostly unified state under an overwhelming majority. So increasing trade, transit etc. with its Muslim neighbors will continue, but it will have to wait a very very long time I think before it can find an opportunity to take over its former civilizational space in the subcontinent. By that time chances are that such civilizational differences will have little meaning and relevance, in a highly technological and advanced global human civilization, where both nuclear fission and nuclear weapons will become obsolete.

It might be advantageous for India to accept Muslims (subcontinental and others except for the Pakjabi’s) as they are, wart and all, not equate all Muslims with Pakjabi's, and create some space for a working relationship, over time, instead of claiming ownership of the deracinated people and the responsibility to bring them back to their former roots. We in BD and perhaps the rest of the Muslim world (as represented by OIC) (although I cannot really speak for them), will eagerly wait for such a new dawn to emerge.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 28 Apr 2011 03:15

very good post, kalam ji.. just one nitpick.. if and when "hindu" civlization reaches OR aspires to reach its former glory, it won't be "hindu" civilization.. the word hindu and identity of "hindu" is the last shackle of deracination on the minds of indic people. when "hindu" too drops off, what remains is "dharma".. and system is dharmik system, civilization is dharmik civilization.. and dharma is synonymous to sustainable, just, tolerant and non-virulent.

there will be muslims and christians in Inda even then, just like we have worshippers of mother goddess, tribal gods, snakes, cows, vaishnavas, shaivas, philosophers of various strains.. but everything is "spiritual and personal path" only and not social and political path.. Those who ca keep these things segregated thoroughly and meticulously are dharmik.. those who mix them up are adhaarmik..

so there will be dharmik islam and muslims as well as adharmik islam and muslims and as legends, stories and myths of India say, adharma has to be eliminated and dharma (in all its flavours) has to be sustained... There can be a "workable" and "healthy" relationship between any two "dharmik" entities.. there can never be a permanent workable relationship between dharma and adharma OR adharma of two different kinds.. The onus is upon Muslims of Indian subcontinent to come up with Dara Shikoh like Dharmik Islam so that rest of the "dharmiks" can select and support it over "adharmik islam"..

This is the "dawn" of India..

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 28 Apr 2011 03:52

AKalamji!

I wouldn't equate Islam to leprosy (bacterial); but it is sad to see the virulent tendencies existing in this age even after 1400 years of history, progress, knowledge and genocides. After all it is individual prerogative to follow the faith of their heart and settle in a suitable colony. Since BD did share its sovereignty with Pakjabis on the basis of religion in the past, they will end up sharing it again with some munna from MENA and reap the benefits.

When the followers of Islam internalize advanced secular humanism meme’s such as plurality, enlightenment, democracy, welfare state etc then there will be no need for integration of subcontinent because they are already integrated thru their value system. Why do we need a Dharmic empire when the whole world is Dharmic? However contrary to your belief, in such a world the so-called "Muslim-power" will be non-existent. If all of Akbar's descendants were to follow the principles of Din-i-Ilahi then there is no need for Bharat to recreate Mughalistan, that too with BD's help.

It is sad to see that even you getting confused between religiousness and extremism. To become extremist one doesn't need to do all the hard work you mentioned. All they need is some Pakiness in their IEDology.

The islamic world be as united after Oil as it was before the advent of it. I am sure China will be a right partner in such a democratic adventure. Together the islamic world and china can create a democratic colony to support seekers of democracy.

I know how it feels to be compared with Pakis. I feel the same when our bleeding heart liberals compare us SDRE Yindoos with Pakis.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 28 Apr 2011 06:41

Akalam bhai,

there is actually nothing to fear but everything to worry about any future "Islamic" consolidation!

There are two essential problems with any Islamic consolidation:
(1) book or no-book is not the real issue: (there are literalists among the SD too who insist on literal interpretations of certain texts). The real problem is the refusal by Islamics to explore those texts critically, and if necessary to be intellectually prepared to reject tenets of the texts, if they are found "wanting" or inappropriate for current humanity. If you notice, SD has right from the "beginning" allowed this open critical exploration.

In the absence of such a generally critical approach, literalists can always wait for the time when literalism will become advantageous - either as a sop for conscience in carrying out atrocities, or mobilize fellow adherents towards "ghazwas". In SD, an adherent can criticize openly any or all aspects of SD and still remain an adherent. In Islamism, no Muslim can openly criticize any or all aspects of Islam and still remain a Muslim - this is not just about legalities or theologians demand - it is the persistent insistence in the primary texts about "s-l-m" the triliteral root denoting unquestioning "submission".

The day when this situation changes - and a Muslim can safely and confidently remain a Muslim even after openly criticizing and rejecting any tenet of "Islam" - there will be no worry from at least "our" side! Can we have someday - instead of a sacrifice of a live animal bled to death [the core of halaal for meat] simply because a text claims that a certain ancestor did it once - that a pumpkin or white-gourd ("chaalkumra"!

) is ritually sacrificed? It happened in SD - with certain schools substituting animals with the above - and still remain adherents of SD.

(2) The question of behaviour, action and attitude towards adherents of "other"-faiths. Once again if the concept of jihad - in all its interpretations, to be practised on non-Muslims as and when convenient - is not rejected as not only un-Islamic, but anti-Islamic, then the worry can never go away.

I was one of the first to see the "Arab spring" positively on this forum, and I remain perhaps one of the few who still it in that light. My reason for this has been various considerations, both real political and intuitive, that I came to at least a year ago - while trying to analyze teh future trajectory for Iran. Even before the "spring" started, I had suggested that Islamism need not remain in its current form for ever into the future of ME. It could actually challenge the existing regimes.

For me, all revolutions are reactionary - in the sense that revolutions are all trying to reach simpler, older, more "equitable" value systems - however imagined or constructed they be. So the "Arab/ME spring" for me was a first step in the reaction that would become one nail in the coffin of theologian-structured Islam. However I also cautioned that in this first phase, older authoritarian regimes would fall, the mullahcracy would cleverly split into two camps with one camp overtly supporting the "revolutions" so that either way the mullahcracy can hedge its continued presence in political power. The liberal hopes of the minority among the revolutionaries are going to be largely dashed and mullahcratic/authoritarian regimes would re-emerge albeit minus military dictators.

For me it is this dashing of hopes against mullahcracy - that is the real positive outcome. Every clash where people are forced to choose sides - bit by bit - exposes the real undroppable motivations. I suggested that it will be the next 30-year generation which will start the unraveling - for they will see the consequences of relying on "Islamism" for their "other" desires.

As for BD - in another post!

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 28 Apr 2011 07:51

AKalam wrote:If Islam is like Leprosy, then we need a Leper colony to help each other.

You were not saddled with Islam a few centuries back ... why do you think you have to carry that baggage for all time.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 28 Apr 2011 09:42

Atri ji, excellent post about "Hindu" and Dharma. dogma was imposed on Bharat first by Islam and then by Christianity. these two dogmas suffer from "One True" syndrome and when they came into contact with India's thinking, they thought we were animals without any morals. Hegel describes this view very clearly. we have to remember this. at the deepest core of "one true" believers, they feel India is a moral-less culture.

AKalam ji, how can you talk about India inviting BD into the "family" when you yourself say that it is just a relationship of convenience. when it is just "convenience," it is NOT a family. family implies something much deeper. from what i've read of your views, it seems to me that you are actually the more moderate voice in BD. in that case, even you don't fully accept the reality that BD is really a family with India. it is not about India inviting you in. once you accepts, you won't need any invitations from us. our very nature will simply accept you without any requests. but first, you must accept that you are a family with us. that, yours and our ties are one and the same and they go back millennia. and that Islam is an artificially imposed phenomenon that happened very recently.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 28 Apr 2011 09:50

RajeshA wrote:Guys,

I have had a change of mind,

The end-result which is envisioned in your e-book can be achieved by a rearrangement of the consolidation phases which you have described, i.e BD's and Pakjabis should stand in a queue to purchase tickets. Just need to allot different priorities to each of the entities compared to what has already been given to them in the first version.

We should explore possibilities through Myanmar!

Precisely. I was trying to convey the same thing through my earlier post, tempered down slightly to allow global warming displaced BD's to move into Burmese settlements. Perhaps, we should look at eastern Nepal and Myanmar in tandem?

The e-book is an approach to think beyond present day imposed memes and political processes, all of us here agree that it is a work in progress, further refinements can and should always take place.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 28 Apr 2011 10:02

Klaus wrote:
RajeshA wrote:Guys,
Precisely. I was trying to convey the same thing through my earlier post, tempered down slightly to allow global warming displaced BD's to move into Burmese settlements. Perhaps, we should look at eastern Nepal and Myanmar in tandem?The e-book is an approach to think beyond present day imposed memes and political processes, all of us here agree that it is a work in progress, further refinements can and should always take place.

This is why securing indian borders must be done on super priority basis for keeping out soon to be the drowning Bangladeshis and soon to be bhookhe , nange and already pagal Poak leechers on the West side . I have hard time understanding that BDesh and Pdesh have anything constructie and worthwhile, net plus to offer to india at this juncture or in future.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Apr 2011 10:26

Some clarifications:

Subcontinental Union Scenario

the Subcontinental Union with India-Bangladesh merger at its core required and assumed certain frame of mind on the part of Bangladeshis:

Bangladeshis make the decision that their destiny lies in the Subcontinent - and that preservation of all Subcontinental heritage, and working together for the advancement of the Subcontinent and its society takes precedence over all other concerns, especially concern for the Ummah, i.e. Pan-Subcontinentalism overrides Pan-Islamism.
Bangladeshis make the decision that it is far more important to have a tight alliance with the Indics than to dwell on the Momeen-Kufr disconnect message of Islam. Ethnic Bonds override Religious Differences.
Bangladeshis do not see the need for political domination over India based on religious brotherhood within a Subcontinental Union. This is based on Bangladeshis not seeing Islam in danger in India. Individual Liberty and Thought overrides Religious Collectivism.
Bangladeshis use their religious affiliation to advance the interests of the Subcontinental Union in the Muslim World, and not the interests of the Muslim World in the Subcontinental Union especially those which go against the interests of the Indics.
Bangladeshis shield and protect the Indics from the onslaught of the non-Subcontinental (Union) Muslims and Islam.
Bangladesh helps in developing a more progressive Islamic society in the Subcontinent which promotes spiritual and scientific inquiry, promotes non-religious education, suppresses the aggressive memes within Islam, tolerates "apostasy", tolerates "inter-faith marriage" without demanding conversions; and all this the Bangladeshis do without looking up to the Arabs for leadership. i.e. Confidence in own faith, independent of Muslim Master Races.
Bangladeshis participate in the leadership of India in a responsible manner!
Bangladeshis would have to show up front that Islam and its Kufr-hostile tenets would not come in the way of such an enterprise!

Without any assurance that the Bangladeshis are willing to move on these questions, any India-Bangladesh merger would only have the net effect that there would be 145 million more Muslims who would be working at cross-purposes with the other Indics! Even the secular system India has put up would in due course be under threat of an overthrow through Islamization of the polity!

In the end, I think the problem lies in the submission and subservience of the Bangladeshis to the Muslim Master Races which prevents Bangladeshis from seeing what is in their own interests. Bangladeshis even as Muslims are confusing submission to Allah with submission to those, the Muslim Master Races, who brought his word to them (sometimes forcefully)!

Good Neighborly Scenario

Now if a Subcontinental Union is not possible, that means that a sometimes latent but often anti-Indianism would remain a feature of the Bangladesh polity! But we need to give Bangladesh the benefit of the doubt. A good neighborly relationship too would have a few conditions on Bangladesh.

Primary condition is that good neighbors do not invade other countries, so the demographic invasion of India by illegal Bangladeshi immigrants would need to be stopped and reversed. In this enterprise, Bangladesh would have to offer full cooperation, in fact offer India an alternative other than violating their human rights! India needs a humane solution to this invasion, and considering that they are Bangladesh citizens, it is to be expected of Bangladesh that they come forward and help us deport them back to Bangladesh! That would be a good neighborly act. Further Bangladesh should help India to man the border and stop any cross-border intrusions.
Secondly Bangladesh should not allow any separatist or seditious anti-Indian movement or organization a safe haven or any form of support - military, logistically, diplomatically; or a transit facility for foreign organizations hostile to India which conduct terrorist activities! Such are expectations of good neighborliness.
Thirdly, India is a power and not merely a country! What India cannot accept is that India's neighbors provide a rival power China a foothold on the Indian Ocean. So any neighbors who are offering ports and bases to China, are from an Indian PoV not showing the needed understanding for India's strategic interests. It is a demand India places on her neighbors, and such restraint on sovereign right of Bangladesh, would be appreciated in India.
Besides the above necessary conditions for good neighborly ties, Bangladesh should proceed to give India transit rights to India's Northeast, and India should reciprocate likewise. Bangladesh could also allow Chittagong port to be used for accessing India's Northeast!

If Bangladesh reaches such an understanding with India, then there is also no reason India should not move ahead and support Bangladesh in whatever national ambitions they have of development or protection of their ecology! In this case we should make efforts to have a well demarcated boundary with Bangladesh, where there is no loss of life. We should respect and support Bangladesh's territorial integrity!

Hostility Scenario

If however Bangladesh does not prove to be a good neighbor - continues with the demographic invasion, continues to support subversion of India, continues to hurt India's strategic interests, then India should accept Bangladesh for what it is - a hostile country! Then there is no need to show restraint or respect for Bangladesh's territorial unity, internal stability, ecological degradation or fresh water rights!

Then everything ought to be on the table:

Getting rid of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh without regard for human rights
Chittagong Hill Tracts and Chittagong Port
Widening of the Siliguri Corridor at Bangladesh's expense
Special Forces incursions to destroy any terrorist and separatist bases in Bangladesh
Naval Blockades

Summary
So basically it is up to Bangladeshis to decide what relationship they want to have with India! It is their choice! India would have to make policy accordingly!

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 28 Apr 2011 10:31

Prem wrote: This is why securing indian borders must be done on super priority basis for keeping out soon to be the drowning Bangladeshis and soon to be bhookhe , nange and already pagal Poak leechers on the West side . I have hard time understanding that BDesh and Pdesh have anything constructie and worthwhile, net plus to offer to india at this juncture or in future.

Prem ji, ideological schisms are created for political purposes. The descendants of those who adopted alien ideologies, by coercive means or otherwise, are also victims. If they want to throw off their mental shackles, they should be helped.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 28 Apr 2011 10:38

RajeshA wrote: Bangladesh helps in developing a more progressive Islamic society in the Subcontinent which ... suppresses the aggressive memes within Islam

The aggressive memes are at the very root. You are just trying to paper over the cracks. The correct approach is to help and welcome those who are want to break their mental shackles and "return home".

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Apr 2011 12:14

AKalam wrote:And I salute RajeshA ji for having an open mind and the courage to consider an alternate reality as a possible future option. It was a good thought experiment and exercise and I believe it clarified many issues on both sides, which is valuable IMHO.

AKalam ji,

I thank you for your time and efforts at giving us an honest PoV about Bangladesh.

It has indeed been an exhilarating and informative experience to dwell into various strategic possibilities for our two countries!

One of the best parts of this journey has of course been to getting to know you and your thinking better! I sincerely hope BRF would continue to have the privilege of your active participation!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Apr 2011 13:10

Atri wrote:EU is survivor. the power centres and their tendencies in west will survive after constantine like compromise. this will ensure temporary return of dark age and simultaneous rise in vsiible display of India's wealth. but that will be stagnant wealth and not freeflowing one.

Atri garu,

I presume that when Muslim migrant populations in some European country reaches the 50 % mark, that country would see full Sharia! At this stage, I guess there would be significant Constantine-similar compromises and around 20% local Europeans would change faiths and go over! The rest 30% would go quiet and die off under an incessant pressure to conform! This is the fate of all Europeans!

Unless.. they take action now! I presume in the next 5 years, it would become the main political issue, but I doubt the Europeans would be able to do what is necessary to ward off the threat! They would discuss and discuss and reach no decision, and by then it would be too late!

Atri wrote:the only difference this time is abraham 3.0 has significant presence in greater India.

Exactly! Europe actually provides Islam with the next survival plan after Oil, military superiority and invasions, and monopoly over trade routes had run their course!

The problem is this time, the world is far more globalized than at the time of the Guptas, and as you mentioned, there is a significant presence in India itself!

Atri wrote:hence increasing importance is being given towards rise of dharma. Krishna says, dharma is very complex and minute. A truly dhdarmik mind understands the relation between karma-its motivatioin- the larger dharma- an its effect on self, society, nation, civilization, humanty. There is a reason why parashurama is respected and but ravana isn't. But while parashurama is respected, jarasandha is not although essentially the "action (Kriya)" they were indulging in was similar.

Atri garu,

I may be wrong, but as I understand it, Dharma demands a high level of conscience in what we do, but allows an overriding of those previous considerations if an in depth evaluation of the situation requires a much higher level call to duty!

If I may be so blunt, dharma may allow acts one would expect of a jihadi, acts as observed by their immediate consequences. But all this basically provides only a road for the conscience to move from zero violence to maximum violence. Other faiths and life philosophies provide much shorter paths for such a change of mind! Now I may not approve of shorter paths, but in the end, it is all about carrying out the act! In fact longer exploratory paths from zero to maximum violence makes it more difficult to take the whole community along, which I see as a downside in some situations.

So Parshurama level acts would not only require dharmic sanction but also a community which has traveled the dharmic road of evaluation and come to the same conclusion as oneself, but more importantly it would require the capabilities of Parshurama acts!

I may be reading you wrong though!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Apr 2011 13:16

brihaspati wrote:RajeshA ji,
when formulating your subcontinental "union" framework, didn't you have this demographic trend in mind? It has been talked about (yes and suppressed as much as feasible) for at least 10 years. There was a study about comparative social indicators - that showed in each level - education, economic status, etc., there was a statistically significant higher FR for one community compared to all others. Thus even higher education or higher income for women did not equalize the FR. I will try to fish it out and send it to you.

brihaspati garu,

I had thought about it, but with too many non-Islamic poles in the world falling, it would seem all the more difficult for India to withstand a similar outcome! An India-Bangladesh merger makes the scenario go faster.

So probably the consolidation would have to wait, wait until there is no more danger of too big a transformation of the Indian demography or the transformation does not seem threatening to the Indic culture!

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 28 Apr 2011 13:36

RajeshA wrote:I presume that when Muslim migrant populations in some European country reaches the 50 % mark, that country would see full Sharia! At this stage, I guess there would be significant Constantine-similar compromises and around 20% local Europeans would change faiths and go over! The rest 30% would go quiet and die off under an incessant pressure to conform! This is the fate of all Europeans!

Unless.. they take action now! I presume in the next 5 years, it would become the main political issue, but I doubt the Europeans would be able to do what is necessary to ward off the threat! They would discuss and discuss and reach no decision, and by then it would be too late!

There's far more likelihood of India reaching the magic figure than Europe, by any measure !! Excepting for one or two European nations that have between 5 - 10% Muslim population, the rest of Western Europe is below 5%.

Even with this much lower percentage - European politics has started rapidly acquiring a Christian right-wing flavor in response to the Muslim issue- and most states are looking at clamping down on immigration. The rhetoric of the Christian right-wing political groups gaining ascendancy in Europe is far more vituperative regarding Islam than anything that India's supposed right-wind party, the BJP, has ever displayed ! Morover Europe is not surrounded by Islamic states that can lead to issues in controlling illegal migration, unlike India.

What is the data that leads you to think that Europe requires any commiserations ? If anything, the country that requires it is India !

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Apr 2011 13:48

Buddhist Restoration and Rejuvenation

Klaus wrote:
RajeshA wrote:Guys,

I have had a change of mind,
The end-result which is envisioned in your e-book can be achieved by a rearrangement of the consolidation phases which you have described, i.e BD's and Pakjabis should stand in a queue to purchase tickets. Just need to allot different priorities to each of the entities compared to what has already been given to them in the first version.

We should explore possibilities through Myanmar!
Precisely. I was trying to convey the same thing through my earlier post, tempered down slightly to allow global warming displaced BD's to move into Burmese settlements. Perhaps, we should look at eastern Nepal and Myanmar in tandem?

The e-book is an approach to think beyond present day imposed memes and political processes, all of us here agree that it is a work in progress, further refinements can and should always take place.

Klaus ji,

you were right with your mention of Myanmar, and you're right that the consolidation phases would need to be interchanged!

Many years ago, I thought more in that direction - a consolidation of Buddhist South Asia first, starting with Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and Sri Lanka!

For that we would have to heavily tap into India's relevance to Buddhism! We would have to strengthen our relations with Buddhist clergies in these countries and also making them much stronger - something on the lines of what Saudi Arabia does with Islam, we could do with Buddhism! So similar to Saudi Arabia - billions would need to move to Buddhist clergies in our neighborhood countries!

We should look for partners in this enterprise in other countries as well, most prominently Japan with its economic strength!

We should also reactivate our Buddhist ties to the Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese, Vietnamese, Cambodians, Laotians, Thai, etc.

In fact, Buddhist and Dharmic proselytization in China itself should take priority!

India should also move to create a huge park around the Eight Great Places of Buddhist Pilgrimage and try to develop them for the purpose, attracting Japanese and Korean money for that if need be! The areas should be made idyllic! We should be creating a Mecca-Medina here, where Buddhists from all over the world can come there, live there, meditate there, learn and teach there, enjoy their retreat there! A spiritual-tourism center!

By increasing the profile of the region in the Buddhist consciousness, especially in the consciousness of the Buddhist clergies in our immediate neighborhood, we can offer them their own monasteries in the region, if they are willing to encourage their people and political leadership to merge with India!

As India itself is a secular country and Buddhists really constitute a very small minority in India, India should help in financing this citing cultural heritage and historical reasons, as well as promoting tourism!

So instead of Subcontinental Consolidation, we can move to Buddhist Restoration and Rejuvenation as a strategy to consolidate India's strategic position!

Just some thoughts!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Apr 2011 13:51

Arjun wrote:What is the data that leads you to think that Europe requires any commiserations ? If anything, the country that requires it is India !

I posted a video in the Islamism & Islamophobia Abroad - News & Analysis Thread. You may find it relevant!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Apr 2011 14:02

Pranav wrote:
RajeshA wrote: Bangladesh helps in developing a more progressive Islamic society in the Subcontinent which ... suppresses the aggressive memes within Islam
The aggressive memes are at the very root. You are just trying to paper over the cracks. The correct approach is to help and welcome those who are want to break their mental shackles and "return home".

Pranav ji,

I am simply of the view, that in spite of the constraints that Islam poses, Muslims have the ability to reform their societies and get rid of the aggressive memes, and make themselves more compatible with modernity and the future of humanity!

It is another thing that their religious-political-social structures are not conducive to this at the moment, but there are enough Muslims out there who are of the view that their religion has certain deficiencies and it needs to be corrected. These Muslims however are not able to change much, and those who do want to change are not radical enough to do the needful!

The question of breaking mental shackles and returning home is easier said than done! As long as Islam thrives at any place on earth, Subcontinental Muslims would not be willing to make the change! Considering that Europe is within a few decades going to be overrun by Muslims, it is difficult to imagine that there would not be a place somewhere where Islam and Muslims would not be thriving, even after Oil is gone!

There are no magic wands out there!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Apr 2011 14:16

Atri wrote:so there will be dharmik islam and muslims as well as adharmik islam and muslims and as legends, stories and myths of India say, adharma has to be eliminated and dharma (in all its flavours) has to be sustained... There can be a "workable" and "healthy" relationship between any two "dharmik" entities.. there can never be a permanent workable relationship between dharma and adharma OR adharma of two different kinds.. The onus is upon Muslims of Indian subcontinent to come up with Dara Shikoh like Dharmik Islam so that rest of the "dharmiks" can select and support it over "adharmik islam"..

This is the "dawn" of India..

brihaspati garu,

when I spoke of Mughalistan, I meant it in terms of imposing a narrative for the Subcontinental Muslims. Just like the British told them, they were martial tribes while the Hindu were "timid", Mughalistan was supposed to be the golden cage the Indics prepare for Subcontinental Muslims - a means of aligning their aspirations with that of the Indics in the Subcontinent!

If Mughalistan is accepted as a Bharatiye Avataar, it could be made possible to replace the ego-boosting feed the Indian Muslims are receiving from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt, etc. with an ego-boosting feed from India itself, downplaying the Arabic and emphasizing the Din-i-Ilahi of Akbar and Syncretic and Mystic Islam of Dara Shikoh! All that can be integrated into the education of the Indian Muslims and given more focus!

Another aspect that could be focussed on is the relationships between the Mughals and other Islamic Empires especially the rivalry and competition. Moreover many comparisons can be made to show that Mughal India was a lot more prosperous than the other Islamic Empires, encouraging pride viz-a-viz other Muslims!

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 28 Apr 2011 14:25

RajeshA wrote:I posted a video in the Islamism & Islamophobia Abroad - News & Analysis Thread. You may find it relevant!

Check this article out....Debunking a YouTube hit

I don't dispute the Islamic demographic threat - just that the facts in this video seem totally wrong & the threat is more relevant to other geographies !

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 28 Apr 2011 14:51

RajeshA wrote:I am simply of the view, that in spite of the constraints that Islam poses, Muslims have the ability to reform their societies and get rid of the aggressive memes, and make themselves more compatible with modernity and the future of humanity

I agree...One needs to distinguish between Islamism and Islam. Even though a literal interpretation of Islam does lead to Islamism - one cannot deny the beliefs of the liberal sections of Islamic societies (to the extent that this exists) who do not believe in Islam needing to have an exclusivist meme.

RajeshAji - thanks also for the thought experiment on BD. Was hugely useful in fleshing out issues.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Apr 2011 17:39

Arjun wrote:
RajeshA wrote:I posted a video in the Islamism & Islamophobia Abroad - News & Analysis Thread. You may find it relevant!
Check this article out....Debunking a YouTube hit

I don't dispute the Islamic demographic threat - just that the facts in this video seem totally wrong & the threat is more relevant to other geographies !

Thanks for that link!

Arjun ji,
I know this first hand, the Muslim women in Germany are working overtime as baby factories. One ought to see how the baby buggies look like when each one carries three children and two walk along. On top of that the German social system is also paying them a monthly € 184 for their service to the German nation.

The Germans however are producing 1.3 children per woman!

So even though what the video says, that Germany would be an Muslim nation by 2050,may not be true, but it could still be true by 2075!

So there is a major demographic threat to Europe, European political systems, European values!

I don't know how true it is, but to Indian Muslim women having a fertility rate of 4.1, Hindu women still have a respectable 2.9 FR!

So the threat is much higher in Europe. Sure in India we have to watch out, and hence my recommendations in the Indian Interests Thread, followed by this one!

Arjun wrote:
RajeshA wrote:I am simply of the view, that in spite of the constraints that Islam poses, Muslims have the ability to reform their societies and get rid of the aggressive memes, and make themselves more compatible with modernity and the future of humanity
I agree...One needs to distinguish between Islamism and Islam. Even though a literal interpretation of Islam does lead to Islamism - one cannot deny the beliefs of the liberal sections of Islamic societies (to the extent that this exists) who do not believe in Islam needing to have an exclusivist meme.

RajeshAji - thanks also for the thought experiment on BD. Was hugely useful in fleshing out issues.

Arjun ji,
thanks for your participation!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Apr 2011 19:05

Ensuring Maritime Access to India's Northeast

Of course it would be optimal if Myanmar were to agree to merge with India at some point in time. This would give India a big footprint in Eastern Indian Ocean. However should this not be so, India should actively think of appropriating a part of Myanmar - the Southwestern part!

Appropriating Rakhine State would be the ideal way.

There is perhaps no other ethnicity in Myanmar which so closely identifies themselves Therevada Buddhism and India! The Rakhine people claim their history to be 5000 years old and in many ways intertwined with Indian history!

It could be possible that Myanmar granted the Gas from the Shwe Gas Fields off the coast of Rakhine State to China possibly because they feared a large Indian presence in the region could again spark off Rakhine separatism from Myanmar!

Considering that Rakhine people associate themselves with Indian history and culture, one could say it is Indian Gas that the Military junta is selling off to China, and GoI is dutybound to protect its interests!

It is time that we give full support to Rakhine separatists. Should there be a refugee influx into India, India could send in the troops!

Wasn't there something about USA wanting India to do something about Myanmar!