West Asia News and Discussions

[Johann]

Key points to keep in mind;

- The planned September 2011 presidential elections are a focal point of struggle. Who will be allowed to stand in them? Will they be allowed to campaign without hindrance? Will the vote and the count be fair?

El-Baradei proposed a set of reforms that would have produced a free and fair vote. Are the Egyptian Army & security services ready for this? Is the Obama admin ready for a government that may be heavily Ikhwani (Muslim Brotherhood)? I don't really think so.

The package may be voted in, but implementation will be something else. The state machinery is still in the hands of the same old people.

- This has been a transformative moment of collective action for Egypt's urban classes. I don't know how many of you have seen the clips of thousands of apolitical Egyptians washing their own streets, guarding museums and neighborhoods from looting, directing traffic, etc when Mubarak's state apparatus retreated to frighten people of the chaos that might follow its fall. It would take a *lot* of violence to get people to go back to being passive subjects, dependent on the state. I'd say this is at least as big as the revolution of 1919.

[Vikas]

What if in the end this all fizzles out like happened in Iran. What if Hoosni Mubarak survives this onslaught and lives to fight another day.
Would it change equations in the neighborhood ?
Would Mubarak strike back with more Islam or we will see a big purge in Egyptian Army and politics.
No one knows what tomorrow will bring so assuming that Egypt will definitely fall can result in feeling as if left high and dry at the alter.

[Raghavendra]

No cops in sight, Indians in Cairo fight looters with bats http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 394163.cms

Second AI flight with 280 Indians from Egypt reaches Mumbai http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 400549.cms

[Johann]

Vikas,

There will be no state collapse. The Army doesnt want it, the Americans dont want it, the Israelis dont want it.

That is not to say there may not be prolonged disorder and uncertainty beforehand as the key players try to weigh the situation and negotiate without giving too much away.

If that disorder really *does* look like its going to produce collapse, the Army will act, and the Americans will ultimately back them.

I don't think the demonstrators are ready to take on the army, even psychologically. They accepted the curfew time, and disappeared from the Tahrir square yesterday at 4-4:30 when a couple of Egyptian air force jets swooped low to give a sonic reminder. Nobody thought they were going to be strafed or bombed or anything, just the acceptance of military authority.

[AKalam]

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/artic ... barek?bn=1
Could Egypt's rich deal decisive blow to Mubarak?

Sandro Contenta Staff Reporter

CAIRO—When people like Mohammed Ibrahim join the revolution, it really starts looking like Hosni Mubarak’s days as Egypt’s president are numbered.

Ibrahim is rich. At 40 years old, he is the owner of a construction firm that builds, among other things, roads, schools, and apartment buildings.

When massive protests to oust Mubarak began 7 days ago, forcing businesses to shut down, Ibrahim saw $30 million (US) worth of contracts grind to a halt. And he’s got 4 containers full of new construction equipment stuck in the Mediterranean port of Alexandria.

“I’m losing a lot of money,” said Ibrahim, shaking his head and adjusting his designer glasses.

“I was always afraid of something like this,” he said, referring to the popular uprising. “I knew I would lose a lot of money, and now I am.”

So why has he joined the tens of thousands who, on Monday, again filled downtown Tahrir Square to defy curfews and shout their venom for Mubarak?

“Egypt is the only place in the world where even the rich are not happy,” Ibrahim told the Star, particularly noting a lack of freedom and corruption.

Indeed, he said he spent much of the afternoon bumping into wealthy acquaintances in the square.

“It’s like all the members of my private club are here,” Ibrahim said.

Ibrahim, whose father is a judge, said he recently appealed to his cousin — a cabinet minister he did not name. What did he tell the minister?

“They must make a deal — a deal that gives security and stability,” said Ibrahim, whose company is called International Supplier Contracting. “There has to be a promise that everything will change, and their will be no more Mubarak.”

Ibrahim believes the protests won’t stop unless its also clear new parliamentary elections will be held and that Mubarak’s son, Gamal, won’t succeed him.

Standing next to Ibrahim, as if to emphasize the close ties of Cairo’s elite, was a recently retired police general looking distinguished in a brown suit. Asked why he joined the protest, the general said, “I am Egyptian.”

When asked his name he smiled and lifted an open hand, like a man used to having orders followed with the slightest gesture.

The pressure on Mubarak will mount significantly Tuesday. A fledging coalition of opposition groups has called for 1 million Egyptians to take to the streets of Cairo. There is also talk of a march to Mubarak’s Cairo residence, although protesters would have to pass many military checkpoints and barricades to get there.

In a major development Monday, the military described the street protests as legitimate, and flatly stated it will not open fire on the people. The statement will likely make protesters all the more confident and increase their numbers.

“The presence of the army in the streets is for your sake and to ensure your safety and well-being. The armed forces will not resort to use of force against our great people,” the army statement said.

“Your armed forces, who are aware of the legitimacy of your demands and are keen to assume their responsibility in protecting the nation and the citizens, affirms that freedom of expression through peaceful means is guaranteed to everybody.”

[Vikas]

Vikas,

There will be no state collapse. The Army doesnt want it, the Americans dont want it, the Israelis dont want it.

That is not to say there may not be prolonged disorder and uncertainty beforehand as the key players try to weigh the situation and negotiate without giving too much away.

If that disorder really *does* look like its going to produce collapse, the Army will act, and the Americans will ultimately back them.

I don't think the demonstrators are ready to take on the army, even psychologically. They accepted the curfew time, and disappeared from the Tahrir square yesterday at 4-4:30 when a couple of Egyptian air force jets swooped low to give a sonic reminder. Nobody thought they were going to be strafed or bombed or anything, just the acceptance of military authority.

Johann, My contention was that lot of people on this forum and opinion makers across the western and Arab world are going ahead with this assumption that Mubarak is as good as gone. What I am saying is that it may fizzle out in the end with Mubarak still in the saddle.

[Pranav]

Johann, My contention was that lot of people on this forum and opinion makers across the western and Arab world are going ahead with this assumption that Mubarak is as good as gone. What I am saying is that it may fizzle out in the end with Mubarak still in the saddle.

I think it's touch and go ... western powers wanted Mubarak gone (which is why we saw meddling by the likes of Soros). But now it looks like Army brass prefer stability and continuity. So there will be some hedging in the statements emanating from the west.

[ramana]

Turmoil in Egypt

by Daniel Pipes
The Washington Times
February 1, 2011

http://www.meforum.org/pipes/9391/turmoil-in-egypt
.

As Egypt's much-anticipated moment of crisis arrived and popular rebellions shook governments across the Middle East, Iran stands as never before at the center of the region. Its Islamist rulers are within sight of dominating the region. But revolutions are hard to pull off and I predict that Islamists will not achieve a Middle East-wide breakthrough and Tehran will not emerge as the key powerbroker. Some thoughts behind this conclusion:



An echo of the Iranian revolution: On reaching power in 1979, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini sought to spread Islamist insurrection to other countries but failed almost everywhere. Three decades had to go by, it appears, before the self-immolation of a vendor in an obscure Tunisia town could light the conflagration that Khomeini aspired to and Iranian authorities still seek.

Part of a Middle Eastern cold war: The Middle East has for years been divided into two large blocs engaged in a regional cold war for influence. The Iranian-led resistance bloc includes Turkey, Syria, Gaza, and Qatar. The Saudi-led status quo bloc includes Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, the West Bank, Jordan, Yemen, and the Persian Gulf emirates. Note that Lebanon these very days is moving to resistance from status quo and that unrest is taking place only in status quo places.

Israel's peculiar situation: Israeli leaders are staying mum and its near-irrelevance underlines Iranian centrality. While Israel has much to fear from Iranian gains, these simultaneously highlight the Jewish state as an island of stability and the West's only reliable ally in the Middle East.

Lack of ideology: The sloganeering and conspiracy theories that dominate Middle Eastern discourse are largely absent from crowds gathered outside of government installations demanding an end to stagnation, arbitrariness, corruption, tyranny, and torture.

Military vs. mosque: Recent events confirm that the same two powers, the armed forces and the Islamists, dominate some 20 Middle Eastern countries: the military deploys raw power and Islamists offer a vision. Exceptions exist – a vibrant Left in Turkey, ethnic factions in Lebanon and Iraq, democracy in Israel, Islamist control in Iran – but this pattern widely holds.

Iraq: The most volatile country of the region, Iraq, has been conspicuously absent from the demonstrations because its population is not facing a decades-old autocracy.

A military putsch? Islamists wish to repeat their success in Iran by exploiting popular unrest to take power. Tunisia's experience bears close examination for a pattern that may be repeated elsewhere. The military leadership there apparently concluded that its strongman, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, had become too high maintenance – especially with his wife's family's flamboyant corruption – to maintain in power, so it ousted him and, for good measure, put out an international arrest warrant for his and his family's arrest.

Gen. Omar Suleiman – Egypt's fourth military ruler since 1952?

That done, nearly the entire remaining old guard remains in power, with the top military man, Chief of Staff Rachid Ammar, apparently having replaced Ben Ali as the country's powerbroker. The old guard hopes that tweaking the system, granting more civil and political rights, will suffice for it to hold on to power. If this gambit succeeds, the seeming revolution of mid-January will end up as a mere coup d'état.

This scenario could be repeated elsewhere, especially in Egypt, where soldiers have dominated the government since 1952 and intend to maintain their power against the Muslim Brethren they have suppressed since 1954. Strongman Hosni Mubarak's appointment of Omar Suleiman terminates the Mubarak family's dynastic pretensions and raises the prospect of Mr. Mubarak resigning in favor of direct military rule.

More broadly, I bet on the more-continuity-than-change model that has emerged so far in Tunisia. Heavy-handed rule will lighten somewhat in Egypt and elsewhere but the militaries will remain the ultimate powerbrokers.


U.S. policy: The U.S. government has a vital role helping Middle Eastern states transit from tyranny to political participation without Islamists hijacking the process. George W. Bush had the right idea in 2003 in calling for democracy but he ruined this effort by demanding instant results. Barack Obama initially reverted to the failed old policy of making nice with tyrants; now he is myopically siding with the Islamists against Mr. Mubarak. He should emulate Bush but do a better job, understanding that democratization is a decades-long process that requires the inculcation of counter-intuitive ideas about elections, freedom of speech, and the rule of law.

Mr. Pipes, director of the Middle East Forum and Taube distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, lived in Egypt for three years.

[Muppalla]

Couple of articles above are of the view that Obama is with real democracy and hence he is with islamists. In my honest opinion, that is good for the world.

[SwamyG]

From an economic perspective; with a growing China and India price pressures are going to be exerted on the commodities. Some of the larger countries, like USA might be able to weather the storm. Smaller countries dependent on imports, countries under corrupt, tyrant or dictatorships will suffer.

http://www.economywatch.com/world_econo ... mport.html Look at Tunisia's exports and imports.

Tunisia’s primary export commodities include clothing, semi-finished goods and textiles, agricultural products, mechanical goods, phosphates and chemicals, hydrocarbons, and electrical equipment. Tunisia’s overall exports in 2009 were worth $13.39 billion, down from $19.22 billion in 2008.
Tunisia’s primary import commodities include textiles, machinery and equipment, hydrocarbons, chemicals and food. Tunisia’s overall imports in 2009 were worth $17.37 billion, down from $23.23 billion in 2008.

Wikipedia says Tunisia ranks well ahead of even countries like Portugal, Italy and Greece in economic competitiveness. Its GDP growth is 3%. The number that is strange is people below poverty line 3.8%. Imports from France are 20% and from USA are 4%. The USA number is low enough to don our conspiracy theory hats.

Something is not right about Tunisia. Look at this labor force distribution: Agriculture: 18.3%; Industry: 31.9%; Services: 49.8% (2009 est.). Almost 50% of the labor force is in the Services area, it is a growing country - in fact it has sustained growth for over a decade. The government had begun its privatization program in 1987 and said to have instantiated various economic liberalization programs including price reforms.

Why would in such a country people protest and topple governments? Unless the growth is totally uneven or if the entire thing was orchestrated elsewhere? Did France sleep under its watch and is this a warning for France to not go tough on bankers?

Egypt is growing at 4.7%. People below poverty line are 14% and the imports from USA is around 11%. USA is the largest import partner.

Note: The population below poverty line in India is 37%. One reason, probably why Maoists exist, but then we do not have such revolutions.

[KrishG]

Egypt is growing at 4.7%. People below poverty line are 14% and the imports from USA is around 11%. USA is the largest import partner.

Note: The population below poverty line in India is 37%. One reason, probably why Maoists exist, but then we do not have such revolutions.

IMHO Whenever people have had enough of a system of governance there needs to be 2 things for a revolution to take place:
1. A figure against whom public anger can be fueled, blaming that person/group for all the problems in that country.
2. An opposition figure who can inspire people to get behind him and can make people believe that he can improve the situation.

In a democratic country, there is no single figure which can be blamed for the problems. When no such figure exists, then the next option is to target the ideology itself (democracy). But this needs some special kind of leadership to sustain and overthrow a complete system of governance. An opposing ideology (like Communism, Islamism etc) alone will not be enough as we see with cases like Pakistan, however popular the ideology may be among the masses.

In the case of Egypt, Tunisia the first condition exists but the second does not. Now again the second condition has to be compensated with an ideology which in this case is "true democracy, freedom" etc. Maybe the democratic ideology or any ideology (Islamism) for that matter, alone can substitute good opposing leadership to a large extent (but not fully) when the public anger is channeled against a single figure (Ben Ali, Mubarak).

[SwamyG]

IMHO Whenever people have had enough of a system of governance there needs to be 2 things for a revolution to take place:
1. A figure against whom public anger can be fueled, blaming that person/group for all the problems in that country.
2. An opposition figure who can inspire people to get behind him and can make people believe that he can improve the situation.
<snip><snip><snip><snip><snip>
In the case of Egypt, Tunisia the first condition exists but the second does not. Now again the second condition has to be compensated with an ideology which in this case is "true democracy, freedom" etc.

Why is there a public anger? The countries seem to growing better than most of the other countries. In fact Tunisia has a moderate growth for over a decade. Are the people not getting the benefits? Is the money going into just a few pockets? Look at the labor force, about 19% in agriculture and 50% in services. Tunisian women enjoy better rights than their counterparts in other African countries. Something is not right.

In order for a few ultra-rich to exist, large number of people have to be ultra-poor. Thus spake Swamyg.

[ramana]

SwamyG, A Commentator on Bloomberg News was saying in Tunisia, uty education is free if you pass the govt entrance exam. And they graudate about 30,000 people a year. 50 % of unemployed who number 30% now are graduates.

Meanwhile Nightwatch take on yesterday's news in Egypt....

Nightwatch 1/31/2011

Egypt: Late on 31 January, the Egyptian Army issued a statement that announced that the Army will not use force against the demonstrators. The demands of the Egyptian people are "legitimate," the military said Monday, vowing not to crush mass anti-government protests called for Tuesday. "To the great people of Egypt, your armed forces, acknowledging the legitimate rights of the people... have not and will not use force against the Egyptian people," as reported by Egypt's official MENA news agency.

The armed forces also stressed that everyone's peaceful freedom of expression was guaranteed; that no one should act in a way that endangered Egypt's safety and security nor damage public or private property; that the military was aware of the citizens' legitimate demands, and that the military's presence on the streets was for the citizens' safety and security.

Comment: This is the most significant development in the past week. It constitutes a pre-emptive attack against Mubarak's new, kinder-gentler government. The message is a warning against the scheduled crackdown because the Army will not back it. It effectively neuters the regime's ability to suppress the protests; encourages the protestors and guarantees that Mubarak cannot remain in office. He has lost the support of the Army. The balance of the guns now favors the opposition.

The over-reaction threat fizzled. The government is now making more concessions and trying to find people who will serve in the cabinet. The Mubarak regime is winding down, trying to find a line it can hold long enough for it to it move national treasure out of the country as fast as time permits.

Readers are witnessing a set of stalling tactics by a dying regime.

The Army/armed forces now appear to be dominant, not the civilian politicians. No one seems to be in charge of anything. The government selected by Mubarak only makes sense as a stalling action that enables Mubarak and his cronies to wind up last minute affairs. These men could never be the agents of reforms they fought viciously during the past three decades.

Every leader of Egypt since the overthrow of the monarchy by Colonel Nasser in 1952 has been a military officer. {Johann!} Readers should expect a military officer to emerge as the power behind the presidency. The key point is that an Army-backed government is likely for now, and will perpetuate the status quo as long as it can.

On 1 February, during this Watch, a million-person demonstration has begun to assemble in Tahrir Square in Cairo. The Army has promised not to interfere. This might determine whether the son-of-Mubarak government lasts, an Army-baked interim government restores some stability of whether a genuine revolution takes place in the second phase of unrest.

Ripple Effects

Syria: President Bashar al Asad said he will push for more political reforms, adding that Arab leaders need to accommodate their people's rising political and economic aspirations. He said he will push toward initiating municipal elections, empowering nongovernmental organizations and establishing new media laws.

Asad said that Syria needs time to build institutions and improve education before opening politically, or the demands for political reform could prove counterproductive and too much for Arab societies. He said if Arab leaders did not see the need for reform before Tunisia and Egypt, it is too late for reform now.

Comment: Asad was careful to avoid the issue of voting rights. That is because he heads a minority government of pro-Iranian Arab Alawites, a sect of Shi'ism that has ruled Syria's Sunni Arab majority populace with brutality for decades. The regime has leveled whole towns who opposed the Alawites.

A revolution in Syria would be welcomed throughout the Sunni Arab street, but not by the Persians in Tehran.

Jordan has replaced its PM and plans reforms!

[Lalmohan]

swamyg, not sure about the veracity of wiki on tunisia
tourism is a big services industry there, and there is a little bit of offshoring from france
agri prices and unemployment seemed to be the sparks of this revolt
also commodities industries employ few people but generate a lot of wealth (for a few)
i've seen figures quoted of 20-30% unemployment in these countries
for an educated workforce with high aspirations, thats got to hurt

[KrishG]

Why is there a public anger? The countries seem to growing better than most of the other countries. In fact Tunisia has a moderate growth for over a decade. Are the people not getting the benefits? Is the money going into just a few pockets? Look at the labor force, about 19% in agriculture and 50% in services. Tunisian women enjoy better rights than their counterparts in other African countries. Something is not right.

In order for a few ultra-rich to exist, large number of people have to be ultra-poor. Thus spake Swamyg.

Dissent exists among certain segments of the population in all developing and poor countries may it be China or India or Tunisia. The thing going against countries like Egypt or Tunisia is that the blame can be laid on a single person like Mubarak. Also, as ramana sir mentioned the fact that a large percent of unemployed are university educated youth also goes against the regimes. I am not saying that there couldn't be any other external factors but the major factors seems to be the apparent ones mentioned and discussed.

[Johann]

Johann, My contention was that lot of people on this forum and opinion makers across the western and Arab world are going ahead with this assumption that Mubarak is as good as gone. What I am saying is that it may fizzle out in the end with Mubarak still in the saddle.

I think it's touch and go ... western powers wanted Mubarak gone (which is why we saw meddling by the likes of Soros). But now it looks like Army brass prefer stability and continuity. So there will be some hedging in the statements emanating from the west.

I don't know why I haven't said this a little more explicitly - perhaps because I thought it was clear enough from what I was saying, and the background news of the past year.

Mubarak had *already decided* in 2010 to step down in 2011 rather than run in this year's presidential elections. The current crisis is not about him at all!

He has been battling a serious illness (believed to be cancer) for almost a couple of years now, in fact there was speculation on the streets of Cairo and in the media and policy circuit that he wouldnt make it for much more than 12-18 months after he had to be flown to Germany for an operation last March.

It was this illness that sparked the succession competition betweeen Gamal Mubarak and Omar Sulaiman which Gamal won - he was being groomed to run this year.

You might think of the Castro and Kim Jong Il successions, both of which began after bouts of severe illness.

Gamal has been run out of town now, and Sulaiman annointed - but that is not the end of the crisis, only the beginning.

However things are not that simple anymore - the massive public response means that there will have to be electoral and political reform in order to get the people off the streets without too much violence. The real question is how much - none of the powers that be want a repeat of Gaza 2005-06 when Hamas swept elections.

The politicking and haggling however extends the crisis on the streets, which in turn has a destabilising effect on the future.

Do not assume either that the Mukhabarat (the national secret service) which Sulaiman heads is the same thing as the army, although both have similar outlooks, and both are close to the Americans. The Mukhabarat's authority comes from its closeness to Mubarak, and that is not an asset at this moment. It does not have the muscle to rule on its own - it takes a troika between the army, the interior ministry (both of which have their own less prestigious intelligence services), and the Mukhabarat. Right now that pyramid is divided about what to do

As I said before, remember that this is not about Mubarak - he is and was history - this is about the 2011 elections.

All of this is basically open source - unfortunately the media has the attention span of a gnat and cant be bothered to remember their own reporting from the year before.

[ramana]

Isn't the Interior Ministry currently discredited due to the unawareness of the scale of protests and subsequent police firings which took a heavy toll?
The Army was called out as the Interior Ministry failed in its role. Mubarak replaced the Interior Minster among others.

[SwamyG]

krishG: Dissent exists in all countries. Including UK and USA.

Lalmohan: Yes, we cannot take Wikipedia for granted. But we have to work with what we have Tunisia imports "food" and exports "agricultural products" so some sites say. I am trying to find if the economic conditions were really that bad as what is projected now.

[Johann]

Isn't the Interior Ministry currently discredited due to the unawareness of the scale of protests and subsequent police firings which took a heavy toll?
The Army was called out as the Interior Ministry failed in its role. Mubarak replaced the Interior Minster among others.

Ramana

The Interior Ministry went out on the streets because Hosni Mubarak wanted to shut down the protests and protect the transition to his son Gamal in the 2011 elections.

The Interior Ministry would have succeeded if the Army backed it.

The bottom line is that the Army was not willing to earn the hatred of the Egyptian people for the sake of Gamal Mubarak.

Are they willing to do it for intelligence chief Omar Sulaiman? Yes, but only if he and Mubarak give something to the angry masses. It the extent of that 'something' that they're struggling to agree on - enough for people to feel there's real reform, but still enough to block the Ikhwan, the Brotherhood from taking power - they're the only people organised and rich enough to win a non-state backed electoral contest.

[Johann]

krishG: Dissent exists in all countries. Including UK and USA.

Lalmohan: Yes, we cannot take Wikipedia for granted. But we have to work with what we have Tunisia imports "food" and exports "agricultural products" so some sites say. I am trying to find if the economic conditions were really that bad as what is projected now.

Two factors Swamy

- The Ben Ali family wasn't simply corrupt. They were absolutely extortionate in a mafia like way, forcing businesses to give up ownership, or shutting them down. There was a whole gaggle of them buzzing around, making sure they owned everything. This is much, much worse than what the Shah did in Iran.

This had a couple of terrible effects - for one thing it meant the benefits of growth were concentrated in the hands of the few, and that too an entirely undeserving few. It has a huge dampening effect on entrepreneurship, and makes merit based competition for jobs nearly impossible. All Arabs speak of the need for 'Vitamin wow' to grow strong - wow is short for wasta, or connections.

- As you can imagine this all helps to produce chronic youth unemployment, but that has a much more socially and psychologically crippling effect than most outsiders can guess. In the Arab and much of the Muslim world the *man*, not the woman pays the dower. That means a young man with no job can not get married. His entire life is on hold - no job, no relationship, no future to speak of. The elites have in effect unmanned and castrated him. You can imagine the kind of anger that produces not just in young men, but in the families that love them.

[SwamyG]

^^^
So this is a revolution "by the business, for the business". People are just puppets once again.

[ramana]

They always are.

[Johann]

^^^
So this is a revolution "by the business, for the business". People are just puppets once again.

The people are not puppets in the sense that they are acting for their own reasons, and with their own hopes and desires.

Will they be able to actually seize power and decide the final outcome? Probably not in Egypt. But they will force real concessions, and the people will benefit from those concessions.

Egypt was transformed by the popular revolution of 1919 even if the Wafd party that led it ended up failing to achieve some (much?) of what was hoped for.

It is hard to remember after the 50+ years of the stifling Mameluk police state of Mubarak-Sadat-Nasser, but Egypt was an intellectual center of the Arab and Muslim world that produced more than just Islamist terrorists or failed Nationalist wars. People like Naguib Mahfouz were very much a product of 1919, and they were part of a huge, thriving scene that went all the way back to the 1820s.

[Varoon Shekhar]

"The people are not puppets in the sense that they are acting for their own reasons, and with their own hopes and desires."

Both the US and China are very comfortable and happy with dictatorships and/or oligarchies. The US has traditionally preferred dictatorships in the third world, while China itself is the world's biggest dictatorship, so it is quite happy dealing with and supporting other dictatorships. What the US traditionally does not like in the third world is just this kind of popular people's movement that we are seeing in Egypt. The generally sympathetic coverage is something of an anomaly as far as the US mainstream media goes. China of course would detest this kind of popular uprising, for obvious reasons.

India has never felt uncomfortable with a progressive people's movement against an oligarchy or dictatorship, though it had cordial relations with many of them, including Egypt under Mubarak. What India would not like to see is something like Islamists or Christian fundamentalists or Maoists hijack such a movement. But a people's cause per se, that at least looks like it is going to result in more democracy, more freedom and more egalitarianism, is something that India welcomes.

[AKalam]

http://www.time.com/time/specials/packa ... 46,00.html

How Egypt's Opposition Got a More Youthful Mojo
Aryn Baker

As for who would lead this transitional government, Taha isn't sure. ElBaradei is a heavyweight, to be sure, he says, adding, "His strength is in foreign policy. But most problems in Egypt today are internal. So I want to see a coalition of opposition forces with experiences in many fields." And yes, that coalition includes the Muslim Brotherhood. "We cannot do what the regime has done, which is exclude the Muslim Brotherhood. We need to hear their ideas as well, we need to talk to them."

The Muslim Brotherhood has its own internal divisions, but very influential members of the group had been very actively involved in the opposition's attempt to form a parallel parliament after the November elections, which were widely seen as rigged to benefit the regime. And while the leadership of the Brotherhood did not endorse the Jan. 25 Day of Rage, members of the Islamist group did actively cooperate with the other parties. Some were in the street every day, even before the leadership chose to participate last Friday. (Comment on this story.)

It is not as if the Brotherhood will be the only potential source of anti-Americanism in a post-Mubarak Egypt either. "Shame on you, Americans! You are giving constant headaches about democracy," says Wahid Fawzi, the foreign minister of the liberal Wafd Party, which helped organize the protests. Like many Egyptians, Fawzi believes U.S. policy toward Egypt derives from Israeli pressure to keep an Israel-friendly dictator in place. And Egyptians are angry. "The streets want one thing and America wants another," he says. "I think America has lost this time. The Egyptians are never going to forget this position."

— With reporting by Abigail Hauslohner / Cairo

My 2 paisa: The people have risen in Egypt, they have tasted power. Suleiman/Military and tools that were used to suppress the people, will no longer be accepted in any future governing structure, even in a transitional period, as it can be used to go back to the status quo. Any thing short of a full and complete democracy will be seen for what it is. Agitation have already succeeded once. The Internal Police failed to suppress it and the Army failed to intimidate and counter it. The agitating public can and probably will organize, go back to the streets and do it again as and when needed till they get desired results.

As for the revolution being hijacked by Islamists, Islamists may have a significant role in the future governing structure in Egypt since they are the most organized opposition entity, but they will not be able to initiate a totalitarian regime like the Mullahcracy in Iran, for the same reasons stated above. The situation in 2011 Egypt is very different than Iran of 1979. Days are numbered for the Mullahcracy in Iran itself. If the elected party and regime cannot deliver results of socioeconomic progress then people will just boot them from power in the next election cycle.

[SwamyG]

The people are not puppets in the sense that they are acting for their own reasons, and with their own hopes and desires.

People are puppets precisely for that reason. Manipulators could have a different agenda than the people. Manipulators are not going to walk to the people and say "Let me be your ruler, because I want to rule" "or let us buy more from America than France", would they? They have to appeal to human sentiments to get them on the streets. In a chess game, like pawns, the pawns do the grunt work and the King is either saved or killed.

[AKalam]

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-0 ... march.html
Bloomberg
Mubarak’s Top Spy Rejected by Cairo Streets as Masses March
February 01, 2011, 1:27 PM EST

By Gregory Viscusi and Thomas Penny

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Omar Suleiman, the military careerist singled out by President Hosni Mubarak to save his regime, lacks the support where he now needs it most: the streets of Cairo.

“The Egyptians don’t want Mubarak and they don’t want Suleiman,” said Chayma Hassabo, a researcher on Arab political movements at Cedej, a Cairo-based research center. “They want the whole system to change.”

Suleiman, 74, has run Egypt’s intelligence service since 1993, compromising his ability to deal with the protestors massing in Egypt’s cities as an honest broker. Suleiman said yesterday that Mubarak has instructed him to start a dialogue with the protesters, who have defied curfews for the past week to demand an end to the president’s 30-year rule.

“We want the whole regime to change, starting from Hosni Mubarak,” Ramzi Mohamed Helwan, a 19-year-old student said during today’s protests in Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo. “We don’t accept Omar Suleiman or anyone else.”

Helwan was one of the hundreds of thousands of people crowding Egypt’s thoroughfares today demanding Mubarak’s departure. On the morning after Suleiman’s appointment as vice president on Jan. 29, signs popped up on Tahrir Square reading: “Mubarak and Suleiman: Get Out.”

Former United Nations nuclear official Mohamed ElBaradei has been nominated by the Muslim brotherhood and some secular opposition groups to negotiate with the regime.

Low Profile

“Suleiman has the trust of the military, and he’s handled Egypt’s relations with other countries, such as Israel and the Palestinians, with great wisdom,” said Roberto Aliboni, vice president of Rome-based International Affairs Institute. “But things may have gone too far. The population is pushing for real change, and Suleiman doesn’t represent real change.”

While Suleiman has had a low public profile in his own country until this week, he’s been the main contact person with some of Egypt’s key allies and neighbors. He helped negotiate the end of Israel’s bombardment of Gaza in January 2009 and unsuccessfully sought the release of Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier seized by Hamas in 2006.

“The Israelis are happy with Omar Suleiman, he has been pivotal in the peace process, he’s someone they know and someone they can deal with,” said Maha Azzam, a fellow at Chatham House, a London-based international affairs research institute. “I would say the Saudis would be happy with Omar Suleiman. I think they’d want a strong man in Egypt like Suleiman.”

Cables released by Wikileaks suggest he is also well regarded in Washington and at the Central Intelligence Agency.

‘Consigliere’

“Our intelligence collaboration with Oman Soliman is now probably the most successful element of the relationship” with Egypt, said a 2006 U.S. diplomatic cable that used an alternative transliteration of his name. It described Suleiman as “formidable” and says he is Mubarak’s “consigliere” on foreign policy.

Under Suleiman, the Egyptian General Intelligence Service has built a reputation as “one of the best-informed intelligence agencies on Islamist fundamentalism and its international dimensions,” according to a report last month by Jane’s Information Group, which publishes information on global defense resources. “It liaises regularly with Western intelligence agencies.”

Another U.S. Embassy cable from 2005 said that “though he does not have a domestic constituency per se, he enjoys a reputation for being uncorrupt, in stark contrast to many, if not most, ministers and ruling party figures.”

Suleiman served in both the 1967 and 1973 wars with Israel and has been one of Mubarak’s closest advisors. In 1995 the two men survived an assassination attempt by Islamist radicals during an African summit in Addis Ababa.

Lockstep

Suleiman trained in the same Soviet Union military academy as Mubarak in the 1960s and studied at the John F. Kennedy Special Warfare School and Center at Fort Bragg, North Carolina in the 1980s, according to a 2009 article in Foreign Policy magazine.

Suleiman’s career has moved in lockstep with a regime marked by widespread abuses, say Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.

“Torture is an endemic problem in Egypt and ending police abuse has been a driving element behind the massive popular demonstrations that swept Egypt over the past week,” Human Rights Watch said in a report Jan. 31.

Despite Suleiman’s power in the regime, his future is out of his hands, says Aliboni from the International Affairs Institute.

Unstoppable

“If the U.S. pushes for an ElBaradei solution, seeing that he already has the support of both the liberals and the Muslim Brotherhood, it would be almost unstoppable,” he said. “In that case, it won’t be enough to push out Mubarak and just put in another military man.”

A spokesman for U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said ElBaradei better represents the change the protesters want.

“ElBaradei is the sort of figure the regime needs to be talking to,” Cameron’s spokesman Steve Field told reporters in London today. “We need to see a broad-based representative government. Many of the appointees in the Cabinet served in previous governments or have ties to the current regime. That does not represent the change the Egyptian people are calling for.”

--With assistance from Mahmoud Kassem, Maram Mazen, Abdel Latif Wahba, Ola Galal, Alaa Shahine and Ahmed A Namatalla in Cairo, Kitty Donaldson in London. Editors: John Fraher, James Hertling

To contact the reporters on this story: Gregory Viscusi in Paris at [email protected]. Thomas Penny in London at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Hertling at [email protected]; Riad Hamade in Dubai at [email protected].

[Johann]

The people are not puppets in the sense that they are acting for their own reasons, and with their own hopes and desires.

People are puppets precisely for that reason. Manipulators could have a different agenda than the people. Manipulators are not going to walk to the people and say "Let me be your ruler, because I want to rule" "or let us buy more from America than France", would they? They have to appeal to human sentiments to get them on the streets. In a chess game, like pawns, the pawns do the grunt work and the King is either saved or killed.

Swamy,

The only thing holding the Egyptian people back is their respect for their army, which is an extension of Egyptian nationalism.

The only thing holding the Army back is the fear of losing that respect, which is common sense.

External players are ultimately incidental to this fundamental dynamic, this tension.

America has never been able to create or prevent change within Egypt. The domestic players have their own interests and their own sources of strength - its America more often than not that has to adjust to keep their friends.

[ramana]

El-Baradei is like the Iranian AbolHassan Bani Sadr and will make way for the MB to take over. Bad idea.

[ramana]

Johann, US advises Mubarak not to run again!

I guess no one told them he wasn't going to run anyway due to his health. And its all about who will be his successor!

Gamal or who?

And the free world is safe in their hands!

[Johann]

I think there may have been a fear that Hosni might go for full scale repression, shut protests down, stand for re-election as President, then appoint Gamal as Vice President, resign or de facto pass power to him.

The thought would have certainly crossed Hosni's mind - "I've made it through so far - just need to grit my teeth for a little longer for little Hosnito's sake"

Hafez al-Asad hung on desperately through his cancer to pave the way for Bashar, and it worked. Kim Jong-Il is doing the same thing at break neck speed for Kim Jong Nam.

Old men will do a lot for their sons.

Forcing Mubarak to declare he will not run in September after Gamal has fled is making sure that avenue is barred for good.

[ramana]

LINK

Finally, India supports Egypt's reform desires
Jyoti Malhotra / New Delhi
February 02, 2011,

As several hundred thousand Egyptian demonstrators marched through Cairo today to redeem their faith in democracy and oust President Hosni Mubarak, who has ruled that country for 30 years, India finally stopped sitting on the fence and described the staggering protests as an “articulation of the aspirations of the Egyptian people for reform”.

The statement superceded the indifferent comments by External Affairs Minister S M Krishna this morning, who had described the Egyptian uprising as an “internal affair” of that country, even if it tiptoed around the Mubarak name and didn’t refer to him at all.

The fact that the Arab street was exploding in a mass of rage across the region — in the wake of the Tunisian change of leadership last week and the ongoing Egyptian protest, the Jordanian king sacked its prime minister today and Yemen, which is run by a autocratic regime, declared its own “day of rage” protests would take place on Thursday — finally shook Delhi out of its self-imposed reticence and take note of the cataclysmic changes unfolding in West Asia.

Senior government officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, conceded Mubarak had “reached a point of no return, and he would have to go, very soon.” But India, conscious that it had never publicly criticised another country — the last time around it did so was during the Bangladesh crisis in 1971 — seemed to be cautiously preparing for a change of guard in Cairo.

The man most likely to take charge, even if it’s a transitional regime, is Mohammed El-Baradei, a former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, with whom Delhi had worked closely during the whirligig of the Indo-US nuclear deal.

It is debatable whether the ministry’s comments have rescued Delhi from being completely marginalised in that region, especially as India’s economic stakes are indifferent at best, with petroleum and petroleum products worth $1 billion accounting for its annual import bill of $1.7 billion from Egypt last year. The remaining items are coking coal, raw cotton, rock phosphate and marble.

In fact, officials said there was little to be concerned about even on the oil front, as India’s largest oil imports came from Saudi Arabia, which amounted to $12 billion or 18 per cent, out of a total oil bill of $150 billion, while imports from Iran came second at $10 billion, or 14 per cent of the total.

Exports amounted to a lowly $1.4 billion yearly, while officials admitted some Indian investments could be at stake. On top of the list are a carbon black plant by Grasim, an acrylic fibre plant by Aditya Birla, as well as projects by Asian Paints, HDFC, IIFC, Dabur, Tata Motors and Ranbaxy.

Dabur and Marico said they had shut their factories for the duration of the protest.

Government officials conceded the impact of the crisis on trade was minimal, while the Indian business community in Egypt was a small one. In fact, the government seems quite upset with tourists who took advantage of the special Air India flight sent to Cairo on a special request from the Indian community there, because they are refusing to pay their air fare.

Analysts pointed to how the Indian world-view had changed in the last half-century, from the time Jawaharlal Nehru and Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser were founding members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in 1961 — and when Israel, egged on by Britain and France, attacked Egypt over the Suez Canal crisis in 1956, Nehru came to Nasser’s support and described the Suez crisis as a “collapse of the world’s conscience” — to the present moment, in which the government was spending much more nervous energy herding a handful of Indian citizens out of Egypt.

The analysts admitted the flash forward was a “rather unfair comparison”, as the world had significantly changed since 1956, NAM had become rather toothless even if it was still around, and that Delhi had become a “far more pragmatic power”.

But with the Arab world going up in flames and the price of oil touching $100 a barrel today, sparking concern of a second Suez crisis which would force ships to take the 6,000-km-longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, India’s top analysts prodded the government to speak up and protect its reputation as a democratic nation.

Chinmaya Gharekhan, a former diplomat and West Asian expert, told Business Standard it was clear from the gathering crowds in Cairo and Alexandria that the “present dispensation cannot last, or even if Mubarak survives, he can’t be the same again, but will be a much diminished figure”. “If in their moment of triumph, if India joins its voice to the political empowerment of the people of Egypt, they will remember,” he said.

Another analyst who sought anonymity pointed out that India needn’t be unduly concerned about offending Mubarak, especially since he had refused to show up in India for 12 long years to accept the Jawaharlal Nehru Prize for International Understanding. Mubarak had been named recipient for the award as long ago as 1995, but failed to find time to come until three years ago, in 2008.

“Clearly, Mubarak had other things to do in his time…why should India be so concerned about a despot like him, when they should be supportive of the Arab street?” the analyst asked.

But Zikrur Rahman, director of the India-Arab centre at the Jamia Millia Islamia University in the capital and a former Indian representative in the Palestinian territories, pointed out that India’s “hands-off” approach to the mounting Egyptian crisis was correct, because although nobody knew who was motivating the demonstrators, there was only one disciplined organisation that had the capacity to do so.

“Is it the Muslim Brotherhood? If it is, and the demonstrators succeed in making Mubarak go, then it stands to reason that the Islamists will come to power. Certainly, a dictatorship is not in the interest of the people of the Egypt, but the question is, who is going to fill that void?” asked Rahman.

With protests also simmering in Yemen, located at the mouth of the Suez, analysts warned that if Islamists took the place vacated by dictators in the region, they could exercise greater control over the Suez Canal.

But Zafarul Islam, the editor of the English-language Milli Gazette, which describes itself as a leading newspaper of the Indian Muslim, felt that as a leader of the region, India should definitely have a view on the crisis.

“To say that we are concerned, but don’t want to get involved, is not enough,” said Islam, adding, “after all, the people are clamouring for their political rights and India, as the largest democracy in the world, should respect that”.

Islam felt India’s influence in West Asia had waned considerably since the days when Nehru and Nasser were friends and India’s name was a moral force in the world. “We may buy about 30 per cent of our petroleum needs from Saudi Arabia and Iran, one a Sunni state and another a Shia country, as many as 3.5 million Indians work in the Arab world, we know that every Arab state is a police state, but we don’t say anything about injustice because nobody listens to us anymore,” he added.

Islam pointed out that Egypt, with 82 million people, was a force of modernity in the Arab world and with the Arab street finally exploding, India would have to either get involved — or remain permanently marginalised.

“The Egyptians are an extremely patient people. They will suffer years of indignity and oppression, but once they are moved and come out on the streets, they will protest until they get justice…India should support Egypt in its hour of need,” Islam added.

Looks like non-governmental analysts are more open in their views about situation in Egypt. I am yet to see a govt /sarakri analyst talk about Muslim Brotherhood.

Hats off for their forthrightness.
--------

Johann, the early rumors about Gamal going away to Lnodon showed there wasn't that option of repression.

I think Hosni is being misjudged. He did want his son to succeed but when he saw the opposition in the military and the street protests and inaction by troops he sent him away.

Now that is over the street protests are being sustained/engineered to get El Baradei type figure incharge and de-Prateorize Egypt.

[rsingh]

http://www.hindustantimes.com/Anger-in- ... 57360.aspx

In a Paris conference two years ago, a US academic acerbically asked, “What can we say about an Arab world that has contributed less to human learning in the past 100 years than Bangladesh?” The Moroccan diplomat next to me merely nodded his head. The Arabs are the world’s wounded civilisation.
“We have no leaders to whom our children can look up to,” was a common line in every Arab country you visited.

[shyamd]

Folks, White House Message to Mubarak - Wanted to make clear that neither him or his son should run in the next election. Mubarak's term ends in September 2011. US officials have also made contact with Baradei I think. Lets see what happens...

[ramana]

Tunsian Revolt: Lessons from Iranian Revolution


Bani Sadr writes about lessons from Shah of Iran's ouster and who it led to Khomieni

By removing a despot who was the main obstacle to democracy, the Tunisian revolt has immense importance for the Arab and Islamic world. Above all, it has opened up a future which, due to the iron grip of an authoritarian political system backed by European and Arab governments, had been considered closed.

As we see already from the burgeoning demonstrations in Egypt, it is not lost on others in the region that ousting corrupt autocrats is no longer just an impossible dream. Tunisia's message to others in the region is that despotism is not a lot in life to which they must submit. That message is spreading fast because the Tunisian democratic movement is legitimately homegrown and not tied to a Western sponsor, as was the case with the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

As I well know from personal experience, however, an open future includes not only the possibility of democracy, but the possibility of resurgent dictatorship in one form or another.

In order to achieve democracy and diminish the prospect of a new strongman taking over, certain conditions have to be fulfilled.

First, the movement has to distance itself from the old regime and its elites. Revolutions only happen when the system is thoroughly dismantled and rebuilt. For now, the political and neo-liberal economic structures which supported Bin Ali's dictatorship, although shaken and fragile, are to a large extent still intact. The same elites are still in charge.

From this perspective, it was a mistake for the movement to enter into negotiations to form a coalition government with the old elites. They can be trusted only when they voluntarily resign and allow themselves to be replaced by others elected by the people.

Second, the entire structure of the despotic regime -- the executive, judiciary and legislative branches -- should be revolutionized. It would be a mistake to limit the objectives of the movement to simply changing personalities.

The lack of experience on the part of ordinary people should not lead the movement to import elites from the former regime into the new government. My experience of the 1979 Iranian revolution taught me that in any department and ministry there are enough patriotic experts who are not tarnished by their association with the former regime and who are willing to play a constructive role in rebuilding the country. The fact that the existing elites have the lion's share of the seats in government indicates that there is a serious shortcoming here. This gap has to be filled as soon as possible; otherwise, the elites of the ancien regime will reconstitute their power.

The people in the streets who toppled the regime should not think for a moment that their work is done, and that they can retire to their homes now and leave the rest to political organizations. On the contrary, they must make their presence felt in every corner of the country and at every layer of government, perhaps through the formation of local revolutionary councils.


People should stop looking for leaders to take over, and recognize that everyone can develop leadership skills in practice through taking responsibilities, engaging in debate and working with others in the movement.

In democracies, public space belongs to the people. Whenever they feel there are issues to be addressed, they must return to the streets. If people abandon the political space, it will inevitably be filled with power-oriented political organizations that will ultimately re-impose repressive practices.

Despite their many differences from secular to Islamist, political organizations should develop a common commitment to democratic values and the rights of individuals.

Any violation of these principles by the state, against even a single person or group, should be resisted by all.

The unfortunate lesson of the Iranian revolution was that most political organizations did not commit themselves to democracy. Lacking the unity of a democratic front, one by one they became targets of power-seeking clergy in the form of the Islamic Republic Party, and were pushed aside.

In this first peaceful revolt of the 21st century in an Islamic country, Islamic intellectuals have an important role in identifying, developing and introducing an Islamic discourse of freedom instead of power so that human dignity and rights are respected and defended for all regardless of religion or gender.

After the Iranian revolution, I protested against the show trials and executions of members of the former regime, arguing that those seeking power begin by violating the rights of those who have committed various crimes, but will ultimately violate the rights of the innocent.

The defense of the rights of all citizens must thus include the members of the old regime who are accused of crime and corruption. If the rights of these people are respected, then one can be sure that the rights of others will as well.

As we have seen (and may see further), those in power will resort to violence in order to impose themselves on society. They do so because they believe that people might compromise freedom in exchange for security, and thus become easy prey for a strong dictator or party.

In order to neutralize the violence of such groups, any new government must resist the temptation to create its own revolutionary guard. If contemporary Iran is any indication, such organizations can all too easily morph into an econo-military mafia that becomes part and parcel of the new elite. The solution is rather to reorganize the existing forces of security so they are subject to civilian democracy and the rule of law.

The experience of Tunisia has shown that a revolution can succeed in overthrowing despotism without relying on a power-oriented Khomeini. When a social movement is spontaneous and horizontal, it has a far greater chance of achieving its goals.

But social revolution is an experiment, the path of which is strewn with obstacles at every turn. As such, it will require persistent struggle over many years, not just for a few weeks.

Now there is no turning back. That struggle will bring true democracy if those who made the revolution persist. If they fall back, strongmen are waiting in the wings to seize power out of the vacuum. Then, as in Iran, the people will have to start all over again to regain their freedom.

[ramana]

Folks, White House Message to Mubarak - Wanted to make clear that neither him or his son should run in the next election. Mubarak's term ends in September 2011. US officials have also made contact with Baradei I think. Lets see what happens...

Silly message. He is suffering from cancer and had already declared he wont run. His son is now out of the country.

Its like a fait accompli. So they can claim to be in charge. As Johann said ride the surf wave and pretend to be the king.

The real game is to install ElBaradei.

DupliCeety trying to do regime change in Egypt for their own purposes.

[rsingh]

What are the implications of this Pan Arab Enlightenment (PAE).

*Democratic govts are more likely to follow independent foreign policy ............less influence of US and EU. Biggest looser is France.

*More trade better for India (future manufacturing hub) and China. All Arabic countries (except high income bubbles) are trapped by smoke n mirror tricks of France. All second hand vehicles and machinery end up in these countries.....killing any chance of home-grown legitimate industry that could create jobs. Belgium is preparing infrastructure to export fresh water to "dry Arabic Countries"...........that was in today's newspaper.

*US is in big problem. Unkil is not used to unpredictable regimes. They used to creat "favourable regimes" in past...........but these days nobody knows how to control predictable (bakistan for one)let alone unknown knowns. Rest of the life is complicated by China.

*Israel has to be ready for tough time. Very tough indeed

*Iran came out pretty smart here......in short run

[AKalam]

http://www.jta.org/news/article/2011/02 ... ypt-or-not

Dilemma of pro-Israel groups: To talk Egypt or not

By Ron Kampeas · February 1, 2011

Keith Weissman, a former AIPAC lobbyist and analyst who witnessed the Iranian Revolution unfold and who has lived in Egypt, said the warnings about ElBaradei were overheated.

“From what I see in Cairo there is no evidence he is on an Iranian agenda,” he said

Weissman said tThe inclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood in the opposition alliance ElBaradei is leading should not be a cause for concern.

“In a post-Mubarak Egypt, you’d want the Brothehood close,” he said.

In any case, meddling is counterproductive, said Lara Friedman, the legislative director for Americans for Peace Now, writing in an op-ed for JTA.

“Denying the reality of change in Egypt does not help Israel; it only guarantees that Israel’s future relationship with Egypt will be more difficult,” she said.

http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_ ... democracy/
Richard Cohen: Egyptian democracy will be "a nightmare"
The longtime Washington Post columnist is terrified of the prospect of Muslims governing their own country
By Alex Pareene

Nothing saddens Richard Cohen more than the sight of hundreds of thousands of Egyptians peacefully protesting. The longtime Washington Post columnist is sad because those childish Arab Muslims might end up with a democracy, but they don't know how democracy works. Here is how democracy works: We like it unless "the people" want something that complicates our current foreign policy objectives.

Cohen is just broken up about this. "Egypt, once stable if tenuously so, has been pitched into chaos." "The dream of a democratic Egypt," he says, "is sure to produce a nightmare." It is sure to. Such a nightmare it will be. Just not anywhere near as pleasant as these last 30 years of "stability" have been, for everyone.

Cohen is totally an expert on Egypt and Muslims, because he is a longtime opinion columnist for the Washington Post, and not at all a blinkered idiot. Egypt "lacks the civic and political institutions that are necessary for democracy," he tells us. And you can't argue with that. I mean, do Egyptian newspapers even run syndicated Richard Cohen opinion columns? Do they have "Dancing With the Stars," to teach them how voting works?

My take on all this is relentlessly gloomy. I care about Israel. I care about Egypt, too, but its survival is hardly at stake. I care about democratic values, but they are worse than useless in societies that have no tradition of tolerance or respect for minority rights. What we want for Egypt is what we have ourselves. This, though, is an identity crisis. We are not them.

No. We are not them, at all. Because they are Muslims. We all know Americans could handle democracy because we were super good at respecting the rights of minority groups. But the Egyptians are sometimes resentful of or even violent against minority groups, so no democracy allowed for them. (While some Coptic Christians worry that a more Islamic Egyptian government would be less friendly to Copts, demonstrators are stressing an inclusive, nationalist message, and there's evidence that Christians are themselves involved in the protests. The right-wing CBN has even filed a report on the growing "bond" between Christians and "their Muslim neighbors" in Egypt.)

Cohen is concerned that the Muslim Brotherhood -- which "runs the Gaza Strip" under the name "Hamas," he tells us -- will take control of Egypt and attack Israel, at which point "the mob currently in the streets will roar its approval." That "mob" certainly does seem pretty bloodthirsty. They clearly want all-out war with the region's sole nuclear power. Pretty sure that's what these demonstrations are about. "I'm actually pretty cool with Mubarak but I really wish we were waging war against Israel right now" -- An Egyptian protester.

Cohen seems to understand that the Brotherhood, while involved in the demonstrations, did not organize them, and he has been told that the majority of the demonstrators have no ties to the group, but he thinks that might just be because they are sneaky. "It has been underground for generations -- jailed, tortured, infiltrated, but still, somehow, flourishing. Its moment may be approaching." Scary!

And why should we all be super-scared of them? "The Islamists of the Brotherhood do not despise America for what it does but for what it is." Thanks, Richard Cohen, for explaining who these Islamists are, and what they despise about us. It's not our lengthy history of propping up the dictator who brutally repressed them -- they hate us for our freedom. (You may compare Richard Cohen's history of the Muslim Brotherhood to that an an actual expert on the subject, if you wish.)

This column is so full of winning lines, I have to stop myself from quoting the entire thing. There is literally an "I like democracy, but" part: "Majority rule is a worthwhile idea. But so, too, are respect for minorities, freedom of religion, the equality of women and adherence to treaties, such as the one with Israel, the only democracy in the region."

I'm sorry, I can edit that one to more clearly express Cohen's actual point: "Majority rule is a worthwhile idea. But so, too ... [is] respect for... Israel...."

These are the last lines:

America needs to be on the right side of human rights. But it also needs to be on the right side of history. This time, the two may not be the same.

The "right side of history" might not be the "right side of human rights." Got it? Sometimes you have to be on the "wrong side" of "human rights," and history will totally understand.

Poor Egypt. Maybe you will be grown-up enough in the eyes of Richard Cohen to handle a democracy someday, but right now, it's just not in the cards.

* Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @pareene More: Alex Pareene

[shyamd]

Ramana, he just confirmed on TV that he won't stand for re-election. Also, about the article on India's position today. Well, India made those moves after getting wind of Washington's position. So, there is no big shock and horror. India waited to see which way the wind was blowing and then opened its mouth. Nothing wrong with this strategy for now.

[ramana]

From Chinamaya Gharekhan's early article a segment of Indian think tanks were wanting GOI to make its stance clear. The ever cautious MEA delayed till the Eagle sqwaked.

Could be good to ensure they don't undercut the Indian position just like PVNR backing the coup in Moscow!

Yeltsin was mad and backed his stooge Kozyrev (BTW what is he doing nowadays?) in his plots to undercut India.